Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

- [2026-10-11] The latest day on the resolution source's dataset is 2 transits. I read the IMF PortWatch daily chokepoint feed (ArcGIS) directly. Daily counts from 2026-09-01 to 10-11 ranged from 0 to 8. The last 7 days (10-05 to 10-11) were 8, 2, 6, 4, 3, 4 and 2, which averages about 4.1 a day. The 7-day average is therefore roughly 4, against the 60 threshold. https://services9.arcgis.com/weJ1QsnbMYJlCHdG/arcgis/rest/services/Daily_Chokepoints_Data/FeatureServer/0/query?where=portname%3D%27Strait+of+Hormuz%27&outFields=date,n_total&f=json - [2026-06-24] Since 2026-05-01, the only days with 20 or more transits on PortWatch fall between 2026-06-18 and 2026-07-08. The peak single day was 51 on 06-24, and 46 on 06-25. Most other days in that window were 20–30. A 7-day average of 60 has not occurred at any point since the market opened. Daily counts have been below 20 since 07-08. Source is the same PortWatch feed as above (query filtered to n_total ≥ 20). https://services9.arcgis.com/weJ1QsnbMYJlCHdG/arcgis/rest/services/Daily_Chokepoints_Data/FeatureServer/0/query?where=portname%3D%27Strait+of+Hormuz%27&outFields=date,n_total&f=json - [2026-10-16] PortWatch publishes weekly, usually on Tuesdays. The Hormuz data has a lag of about 2–9 days, and the newest day available today is 10-11. Trackers call the strait effectively closed on day 230 of the closure, with 2% of the ~85/day pre-crisis norm. Pre-crisis is about 85 a day on PortWatch. https://straits.live/today - [2026-10-15] CENTCOM says the US and its partners control the strait, citing more than 40 commercial ships in 24 hours. JMIC counted 121 US-facilitated transits from 10-11 to 10-14, about 30 a day. JMIC rates the threat as SEVERE. JMIC also reported single-digit daily movements in its separate tracking. These counts use different methods from PortWatch's AIS count, and AIS-dark ships are not counted by PortWatch. https://gcaptain.com/by-the-numbers-u-s-claims-control-of-hormuz-as-ship-attacks-hit-new-high/ - [2026-10-15] JMIC documented eight projectile attacks on 10-11 and 10-13, hitting four tankers and four containerships. The Singapore-flagged container ship GFS Pride was struck on 10-13 and sank on 10-14. About 430 vessels remain at anchor around Fujairah, Khor Fakkan, Dubai, Jebel Ali, Ras Al Khaimah, Musandam and Sohar. https://gcaptain.com/by-the-numbers-u-s-claims-control-of-hormuz-as-ship-attacks-hit-new-high/ - [2026-10-12] Lloyd's List Intelligence counts a wider set of vessels, including dark ones, and shows far higher traffic than PortWatch: 124 total transits in a week versus 122 the prior week. Its mid-September week of 14–20 September shows 122. Its brief also reports at least 13 attacks on tankers or gas carriers since 09-28, a seven-month high. Westbound transits into the Gulf were 231 in September. Its transit counts differ greatly from PortWatch's AIS-based counts. https://www.lloydslistintelligence.com/resources/blog/strait-of-hormuz-brief-12-october-2026 - [2026-10-14] Reuters reports Iran is shifting tactics to escalate attacks on shipping before the US vote. Anadolu reports six ships were targeted in a single day, the most since the war began. A US blockade of Iranian ports continues. Brent was about $105–106. https://straits.live/briefs/2026-10-14 - [2026-10-16] Reporting today says attacks are rising, two Singapore-registered container ships were struck, and one carrying more than 2,500 containers sank. Iran's navy says a burning vessel violated its restrictions. WANA, a single unverified source, says the strait stays closed until Iran's rights are respected. https://straits.live/briefs/2026-10-16 - [2026-06-18] History: a US–Iran MOU took effect on 06-17/18 and the US blockade was lifted. It was followed by a brief recovery to 20–50 PortWatch transits a day. The deal frayed in July and the US blockade was reimposed. Industry guidance after the MOU was that a return to normal would take months, with a sustained incident-free period needed. https://www.marineinsight.com/war-risk-insurance-returns-for-strait-of-hormuz-shipping-but-security-risks-delay-recovery/ - [2026-08-17] The ceasefire expired in mid-August with no deal. Kpler counted 3 ships on 08-16. Iran says it is in talks with Oman, not the US, on a joint route. Earlier in August Iran said an Oman deal would not take effect until the US blockade ends. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/17/us-iran-war-trump-hormuz.html - [2026-10-15] War-risk insurance for tankers is about 30× pre-crisis. Six P&I clubs cancelled cover in March. Insurers say normality needs materially reduced attack and mine threats. https://straits.live/ - [2026-10-10] A Houthi missile strike on Riyadh's airport on 10-10 killed 13 people. Reports of widening regional escalation come from a secondary source. https://discoveryalert.com/analysis/hormuz-oil-prices-brent-shipping-risk-october-2026/ BOTTOM LINE: As of 2026-10-16 the PortWatch 7-day average is about 4, roughly 15 times below the 60 threshold, and it has never been near 60 since the market opened. Its post-June peak was a few days in the 20s–50s. Attacks and escalation are rising, with no deal or reopening scheduled before 12-31. NOT FOUND: A published PortWatch 7-day moving-average value on the portal page, because the page is a JavaScript app (the average above is computed from the daily counts). Any scheduled talks or deadlines before 12-31 that would plausibly reopen the strait. PortWatch data after 10-11.

- [2026-10-11] The latest IMF PortWatch day is 11 Oct, with 2 transits. The 7-day average is about 3–4/day, against a pre-crisis baseline of about 85/day and a threshold of 60. Daily PortWatch figures for 2–11 Oct ranged from 2 to 8. https://hormuz.now/traffic - [2026-10-15] AIS-based counters put traffic at about 8–9 ships/day over the past week, roughly 10% of normal. The strait is still rated "Restricted". https://hormuz.now/traffic - [2026-10-15] Attacks on shipping hit a new high. JMIC rates the threat "SEVERE" and counts 149 vessel incidents since 1 Mar. A container ship, GFS Pride, was struck on 13 Oct and sank on 14 Oct. https://gcaptain.com/by-the-numbers-u-s-claims-control-of-hormuz-as-ship-attacks-hit-new-high/ - [2026-10-15] US-facilitated transits averaged about 30/day on 11–14 Oct, per JMIC, and CENTCOM claims more than 40 in 24 hours. That is about 22% of the pre-war benchmark of roughly 138/day, which is a different methodology from PortWatch. Independent tracking shows single-digit daily movements. About 430 vessels are anchored outside the strait. https://gcaptain.com/by-the-numbers-u-s-claims-control-of-hormuz-as-ship-attacks-hit-new-high/ - [2026-10-12] Lloyd's List Intelligence counts 124 total transits for a week in late September, which is about 18/day. It says non-Iranian-linked westbound entries are at highs and tanker attacks are at a seven-month high. This count is far above PortWatch's and is not the resolution source. https://www.lloydslistintelligence.com/resources/blog/strait-of-hormuz-brief-12-october-2026 - Historical reference class (PortWatch daily data, from the hormuz.now chart): - Before the war, Dec 2025–Jan 2026 daily counts were often 45–70. A 7-day average of 60 was seldom reached before mid-Feb 2026 (daily counts of 100+ appeared in Feb). - After closure on 2 Mar 2026, the daily count stayed at about 1–12 through May. https://hormuz.now/traffic - [2026-06-24] The post-closure peak was one day of 51 transits on 24 Jun, a week after the 17 Jun Islamabad Memorandum. June averaged 12.9/day, the best month since the war began. Transits fell back to single digits by mid-July after the ceasefire collapsed. Over about 230 days, the 7-day average has never come close to 60. https://hormuz.now/ - [2026-07-08] On 8 Jul, CNBC reported Kalshi at 43% for normal traffic by 1 Dec and 52% by 1 Jan 2027. It reported Polymarket at 59% for 31 Dec. Both were set after the ceasefire collapsed, and both used the 7-day-average-above-60 definition. These prices have been proven far too high. Earlier markets repeatedly priced "by Aug/Sep/Oct" at roughly 50–66%, and every one of those dates passed as NO. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/08/kalshi-traders-think-hormuz-traffic-wont-return-to-normal-this-year.html - [2026-10-15] A Polymarket tweet on 15 Oct put "Hormuz shipments return to normal by end of year" at 12%. This is a different venue/contract from the one being forecast, so treat it as a cross-check only. https://x.com/Polymarket/status/2110786926030770426 - [2026-10-15] Straits.live shows a Kalshi market on 7-day average above 60 before 1 Jul 2027 at 34%. That price is stale-prone and is a sibling market with a different date. https://straits.live/ - [2026-05] Expert estimates: in spring, Kpler expected about 40 ships/day four weeks after reopening and full normalization only "well into 2027". The EIA expected a return to pre-conflict patterns in early 2027. The Dallas Fed and others had pointed to H2 2026. https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/article/trump-team-promises-normal-traffic-in-strait-of-hormuz-within-a-month-shipping-officials-project-50-at-best-155108016.html - [2026-04-09] Red Sea precedent: analysts said the Houthi disruption was the reference for recovery speed, and that recovery takes weeks to months even after a truce. Red Sea/Suez traffic has stayed depressed for a long time. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/09/tankers-return-to-hormuz-ceasefire-disruption-to-last-weeks.html BOTTOM LINE: The outside view is strongly NO. In about 230 days of crisis the PortWatch 7-day average has never exceeded about 30, it is currently about 3–4, and attacks are escalating. A YES needs a sudden settlement plus a rebound to 60+ (about 70% of the 85/day baseline) within about 11 weeks, and even the best ceasefire window (June) peaked at about 12.9/day over the month. Earlier market prices of 50–66% for earlier dates all failed, and Polymarket's own tweet on 15 Oct put it near 12%. NOT FOUND: The current official PortWatch 7-day moving average (from the portal itself), any published revision history, and a base rate from comparable chokepoint reopenings, beyond the analyst Red Sea comparison.

YES means: IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transit calls of 60 or more for any date from market creation to 31 Dec 2026. The case for YES is weak. The only credible path is a phased US–Iran deal that reopens the strait, followed by a fast, large rebound in AIS-visible traffic. - [2026-09-25] Reuters (via Times of Israel) reported US and Iranian negotiators exploring a phased deal: Iran reopens Hormuz and the US lifts its blockade. This is the most plausible YES path. A senior Iranian official called "end the blockade and reopen Hormuz" the first stage. Reuters sources said both sides prefer a deal before the Nov 3 midterms. Regional sources said Iran would move its transit-fee demand to a side attachment, because lifting the blockade had become the more urgent priority. https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-and-iran-discussing-phased-deal-to-reopen-hormuz-and-end-us-blockade-sources-say/ - [2026-09-25] Dennis Ross put the odds of a deal before the midterms at about 30%. He said both sides have stronger reasons to deal before the vote than after it. https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-and-iran-discussing-phased-deal-to-reopen-hormuz-and-end-us-blockade-sources-say/ - [2026-09-25] Iran's proposal sequence is a seven-day truce, then the strait reopens on day 7. It asks for release of at least $12bn in frozen assets, oil sanctions relief and an end to the blockade. A white-house-side deal would mostly re-run the June memorandum. That memorandum already produced 20–50 transits a day within about a week, so a restart could be quick. https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-and-iran-discussing-phased-deal-to-reopen-hormuz-and-end-us-blockade-sources-say/ - [2026-10-07] Al Jazeera: Vice President Vance asked only for a "meaningful" cut in enrichment. Experts read that as a possible softening of the US demand that Iran give up enrichment. Experts also said Iran's proposal could let Trump restore shipping before the midterms. Araghchi said on Oct 4 that only "just and fair" negotiations can end the war, so talks were still alive. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/7/us-sets-new-demands-for-iran-deal-what-are-they - [2026-10-07] Kpler: Gulf oil flows excluding Iran reached more than 81% of pre-war levels in September. This suggests cargo is moving, probably through dark or non-AIS transits, and that demand and stranded-ship backlog are ready to flow. About 430 vessels sit at anchor (colleagues, Oct 15). A reopening could release a backlog that lifts AIS counts sharply. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/7/us-sets-new-demands-for-iran-deal-what-are-they - [2026-07-xx] Washington Institute: overall crossings averaged roughly 45 a day after the June memorandum, using a wider counting basis than PortWatch. This shows 45-plus a day can happen within days of a deal. https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/reaching-viable-management-arrangements-strait-hormuz - [2026-10-16] A gap between sources helps YES. hormuz.now's own AIS counter shows 9.0 a day over the past week, while GMN's page shows 29 transits for the seven days to Oct 11, from PortWatch data. The PortWatch figure is around 4 a day by colleagues' computation. A reopening that brought back dark ships to AIS could lift PortWatch faster than hull counts suggest. https://hormuz.now/ - [2026-09-26] Trump rejected Iran's seven-day plan. WSJ reported he told aides he expects to resume bombing after the midterms, which argues against a quick reopening. The counter-argument is that Trump said "I rejected it" about a specific sequence, not about the principle of a deal. CBS reported that Iranian officials were still awaiting a response, and Trump said talks continued through mediators. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/26/trump-rejects-irans-conditional-ceasefire-proposal-wsj-reports.html - [2026-10-16] The prerequisites for YES are all unmet. They are (1) a deal in roughly late Oct to mid-Nov, (2) the blockade lifted, (3) Iran allowing free passage, (4) insurers and owners returning quickly, and (5) a PortWatch 7-day average of 60 or more, about 70% of the ~85 a day norm. The best post-MOU month averaged only 12.9 a day. Even the June peak was a single day of 51. https://hormuz.now/ BOTTOM LINE: The best YES case is a pre- or post-midterm phased blockade-for-reopening deal, with a post-deal surge like June's but roughly twice as strong. Nothing in the record shows PortWatch's 7-day average ever near 60 since the war began, and Iran says the strait stays closed until all its conditions are met. NOT FOUND: Any PortWatch 7-day moving-average value from the portal itself. Any dated deal, talks or reopening milestone before Dec 31. Any precedent for a rebound from ~4 to 60 a day in under about 10 weeks.

YES means: IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transit calls of 60 or more for any date between market creation (2026-05-11) and 2026-12-31. - [2026-10-07] Iran's President Pezeshkian called talks with Washington "futile" (said Oct 5). Vance and Rubio set conditions on enrichment and sanctions. Al Jazeera's analyst says Tehran's real sticking points are the blockade, sanctions, frozen assets and Lebanon. The late-September 7-day reopening plan was rejected by Trump, and the sequencing dispute is unresolved. A YES needs a deal, then a reopening, then a rebound to 60+, all before 12-31. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/7/us-sets-new-demands-for-iran-deal-what-are-they - [2026-10-04] Iran's chief negotiator said the strait stays closed until the US accepts Iran's seven-day plan. Araghchi warned Iran is "more prepared than before" if the US acts militarily. Both sides have hardened. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/4/iran-says-strait-of-hormuz-to-remain-closed-until-us-meets-conditions - [2026-10-14] Iran's parliament speaker says the June framework deal helped Tehran rebuild its military. Iran says full reopening depends on the US easing the blockade and sanctions. Iran says preconditions must be met before talks. Contacts are only indirect, through mediators. https://www.anews.com.tr/middle-east/2026/10/14/irans-framework-deal-with-us-helped-tehran-strengthen-military-capabilities-parliament-speaker - [2026-10-07] Gulf oil flows excluding Iran recovered to over 81% of pre-war levels in September (Kpler), while PortWatch counts stayed at about 3–4 a day. That means oil is moving without PortWatch-visible AIS transits. The recovery in volume also reduces US pressure to settle, so the pressure for a deal is weaker. PortWatch's count is the narrow metric, so volume recovery does not help YES. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/7/us-sets-new-demands-for-iran-deal-what-are-they - [2026-10-16] Container lines have rerouted their networks away from the strait, and only opportunistic operators transit. Drewry says none of the major container lines are returning. The Oct 13–14 sinkings reinforce this. PortWatch counts container ships, so a rebound needs the liners back. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/16/strait-hormuz-singapore-ships-attacked.html - [2026-10-11] A third-party tracker of PortWatch data shows a 30-day total of 102 transits, about 3.4 a day, and a 27-day average of 4.4. Tankers average 0.4 a day. Only about 5% of 2025 volume shows up in PortWatch's tanker series, and tankers were over half of the baseline. A 60 average needs roughly 420 transits in 7 days, against about 28 now. https://www.globalmilitary.net/conflicts/strait-of-hormuz/ - [2026-10-15] The AIS-visible 24-hour count was 11 and the 7-day average about 9 a day on a counting line other than PortWatch's. Even the more generous counter is about 7 times short of 60. The gap is not a PortWatch artefact. https://hormuz.now/ - [2026-06-18] A deal is not enough. The June MOU had a 30-day demining phase before cargo traffic was expected to resume. Insurers and the LMA said ship owners would not return in large numbers until mines, port services and navigation safety were fixed. Even a deal signed in mid-November would leave under 6 weeks. https://www.marineinsight.com/war-risk-insurance-returns-for-strait-of-hormuz-shipping-but-security-risks-delay-recovery/ - [2026-06-16] Reuters sources put mine clearance at 40–50 days before insurers and owners regain confidence. A separate report said Pentagon officials gave lawmakers a six-month estimate. These are lead times a December deal could not meet. https://www.claimsjournal.com/news/national/2026/06/16/338191.htm - [2026-04-28] Insurers require normal movement over a sustained period, not isolated transits. The expectation of a re-closure, as in July, keeps cover expensive. The June peak was one day of 51 even though a signed deal with the blockade lifted was in place. https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2026/4/28/when-will-strait-of-hormuz-be-safe-for-commercial-shipping-again - [2026-10-16] The resolution mechanics add little timing slack. PortWatch updates weekly (Tuesdays) with a lag of 2–9 days, and the newest day is Oct 11. The market allows 14 days after 12-31 for publishing. The last data that counts is therefore the late-December daily values. Any recovery must appear in PortWatch's AIS counts by about Dec 31. https://straits.live/today - [2026-10-16] Fox's live blog of Oct 15 says CENTCOM claims over 40 vessels in 24 hours and clear primary routes. PortWatch still recorded 2 on Oct 11. The US-escorted flow is not showing up in the resolution source. So claims of "control" do not move the PortWatch number. https://foxnews.com/live-news/us-iran-war-peace-donald-trump-strait-hormuz-oil-prices-midterms-october-15 BOTTOM LINE: Resolution needs a 7-day PortWatch average of 60 or more, about 15 times the current level. The record is a June peak of 51 on a single day under a signed deal. A diplomatic breakthrough, demining or confidence rebuilding, and a rebound to 60+ all have to land inside roughly 10 weeks while both sides are hardening and attacks are rising. Inertia favours NO strongly. NOT FOUND: A published PortWatch 7-day average on the portal itself, any scheduled talks or deadline before 12-31, and PortWatch data after Oct 11. The CNBC page could not be fetched (the Oct 16 cite is from the search snippet).