Will the paper price index for November 2026 be above 275?

- [2026-10-15] FRED, mirroring BLS, shows WPU0913 for Sep 2026 at 282.486 (last updated 2026-10-15). This is 7.5 points above the 275 strike. The path is Jan 256.980, Feb 263.831, Mar 264.810, Apr 270.864, May 276.558, Jun 280.394, Jul 282.285, Aug 282.657. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/WPU0913.txt - [2026-09-10] ALFRED, FRED's vintage archive, recorded the first print for Aug 2026 as 282.266. The value is now 282.657, so it was revised up about 0.4. Only first prints count for resolution. https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/series?seid=WPU0913 - [2026-09-15] The BLS page shows 12-month changes of +8.6% (May), +10.4% (Jun), +10.4% (Jul) and +10.0% (Aug). All are marked preliminary. BLS says indexes are revised for up to four months after first publication. https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/wpu0913?output_view=pct_12mths - [2026-10-15] BLS published the September 2026 PPI (final demand +1.3% m/m, +6.3% y/y). The next release, for October, is on 2026-11-13. https://www.bls.gov/ppi/ - [2026-12-15] BLS schedules the November 2026 PPI for 8:30 AM ET on Dec 15. That is the same day trading closes, so the first print arrives on the closing date. https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/ppi.htm - [2026-09-xx] For September, the index was flat versus August (-0.06%). The Jun–Sep gain was 2.1, and the rise has levelled off at about 282. Nov 2025 was 255.888. A November print above 275 needs a drop of more than 7.5 points (about 2.7%) from September. No month in the 2022–2026 data shown fell that much. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/WPU0913.txt - [2026-07-27] Packaging Dive: PCA announced a $140/t containerboard increase for Sep 1, its third in 2026. Previous hikes this year were $50–70/t, and the Fastmarkets RISI index recognised a net $100/t through June. Truist's contacts expect only $50–70 of the $140 to be recognised. https://www.packagingdive.com/news/packaging-corporation-america-containerboard-price-hike-third-2026-unprecedented/826179/ - [2026-08-03] Procurement Resource: close to 10% of North American containerboard capacity has been removed. It also reports that only part of the $140 is expected to be accepted. https://www.procurementresource.com/news-and-articles/north-america-containerboard-price-increase-paper-supply - [2026-10-15] Mondi's Q3 update (via Reuters) says it raised paper prices in Q3. It expects higher packaging paper prices to support Q4 performance, though uncoated fine paper demand is seasonally weak. https://www.esmmagazine.com/packaging-design/packaging-firm-mondi-hikes-prices-again-to-counter-rising-costs-323828 - [2026-10-07] EUWID: Suzano is raising October pulp prices by $50/t in Europe and the Americas. Sappi Europe (Oct 6) and MM Board & Paper (Sep 16) announced European board increases. These are non-US signals of continued cost pressure. https://www.euwid-paper.com/topic/price-reporting/ - [2026-10-15] The September CPI release shows household paper products down 2.2% m/m. This is a consumer index, not the PPI series. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf BOTTOM LINE: The latest WPU0913 value, 282.486 for September, is well above 275. It has been flat for three months, with firm industry pricing signals. A "No" outcome would need a drop of more than 2.7% in two months. The first print arrives Dec 15, the closing date. NOT FOUND: The October 2026 value (due Nov 13). The first-print (preliminary) September value as a separate vintage. US uncoated freesheet or newsprint price moves for Oct–Nov. Any sibling Kalshi strikes.

- [2026-10-15] The latest WPU0913 print (September 2026) is about 282.49, from the FRED table updated Oct 15. The earlier months are Aug 282.66, Jul 282.29, Jun 280.39, May 276.56 and Apr 270.86. The FRED file marks these as commented-out lines, and some differ slightly from earlier vintages (for example, May was 276.407 in the Sep 10 ALFRED vintage). The threshold of 275 is about 2.7% below the September level. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/WPU0913 - [2026-09-10] ALFRED vintage as of Sep 10: Aug 282.266, Jul 283.145, Jun 280.520, May 276.407, Apr 270.864. Revisions between vintages have been small, at most a few tenths of an index point. https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/series?seid=WPU0913 - [2026-09-15] BLS 12-month changes for WPU0913 in 2026 were Jan +2.7%, Feb +4.4%, Mar +4.4%, Apr +6.2%, May +8.6%, Jun +10.4%, Jul +10.4% and Aug +10.0%. Through 2025 the series ran at roughly +1% to +2.5% year on year. https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/wpu0913?output_view=pct_12mths - [2026-10-15] Historical level, same FRED file: the index was flat at 246–253 from 2022-10 to 2025-12 and was 256.3 in Oct 2025 and 255.9–256.6 in Nov 2025. It jumped from 256.98 in Jan 2026 to 263.83 in Feb, 270.86 in Apr and 280.39 in Jun, then plateaued at 282–283 from Jul to Sep. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/WPU0913 - [2026-10-15] Base rate for a drop of more than 2.7% in 2 months: no such 2-month fall appears in the 2022–2026 monthly data in the FRED file. The largest monthly moves were about ±1–2% (for example, +2.7% in Feb 2026). Month-to-month moves since Jul 2026 have been under 0.2%. The index has been in a plateau (Jul–Sep within 0.4%). https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/WPU0913 - [2026-10-15] BLS Sept 2026 PPI release: final demand rose 1.3% m/m and 6.3% y/y. Final demand goods rose 2.6%, with energy up 10.8%, so the cost-push environment is inflationary. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_10152026.htm - [2026-10-15] Related pulp index WPU0911 is rising: Sep 222.983, Aug 219.930, Jul 216.064, Jun 208.059, May 204.693. This is an upstream cost tailwind for paper. FRED lists the next release as Nov 13, 2026. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPU0911 - [2026-10-16] Timing: the October PPI is due Nov 13, 2026 (BLS). A third-party calendar lists the November 2026 PPI for Tue Dec 15, 2026, 8:30 ET, which is the same day trading closes. I did not confirm this on the BLS calendar. A shutdown-type delay, like the Oct–Nov 2025 one that pushed the Oct and Nov 2025 PPI to Jan 14, is a tail risk. https://fedratecalc.com/us-economic-calendar/ - [2026-10-16] Resolution uses the first-published value, and BLS revises up to four months later. The Oct 2025 shutdown shows publication-schedule risk. https://lifopro.com/revised-bls-cpi-ppi-release-dates/ - [2025/26] An IBISWorld forecast (a stale one, published about Feb 2026) had the 2026 paper PPI at 263.6. Actual prints have already exceeded that by about 7%, so this outside forecast is superseded. https://www.ibisworld.com/united-states/bed/producer-price-index-paper/4595/ BOTTOM LINE: The index is about 282.5 and has been flat for three months, about 7.5 points above the 275 strike. Historically the series has not fallen more than about 2.7% in two months, so the outside view favours Yes. Residual risk comes from a sharp reversal, from the Dec 15 release landing on the close date, and from the schedule risk around the publication date. NOT FOUND: BLS-confirmed Nov 2026 release date (only third-party calendars); any analyst or market forecast for the Nov 2026 WPU0913 level; October 2026 paper price-announcement news (for example, mill price changes or closures); a first-print versus revised-value comparison for this series.

YES means: the first-published BLS WPU0913 (Paper, NSA, 1982=100) value for November 2026 is above 275.0. - [2026-10-16] The BLS December 2026 calendar (page last modified Feb 18, 2026) lists the PPI for November 2026 on Tue Dec 15 at 8:30 AM. That is the closing date, and the BLS page confirms it. Third-party calendars (narwhalapi, 2026-10-02; makeitsweep) agree and show no change. The first print is therefore due on the deadline day. It would count only if released on schedule, and the shutdown-type risk noted earlier remains. https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/12_sched_list.htm - [2026-09-18] The Fastmarkets RISI September index recognised the third round of US containerboard hikes: linerboard +$70/t and medium +$100/t m/m (secondary report). This is the first recognition of the $140 round. The Sept PPI paper print was flat, so the pass-through into the October and November contract and list prices may still be pending. The index has already been pushed up from below. https://tongxinshun.com/blog/containerboard-price-hikes-2026-packaging-buyers - [2026-09-24] Cascades announced $110/t on linerboard and white-top and $140/t on medium. Smurfit Westrock announced $100/t and IP $80/t. Producers were still reaching for about $240/t cumulative in 2026. This is more upward pressure, not a reversal. https://tongxinshun.com/blog/containerboard-price-hikes-2026-packaging-buyers - [2026-10-14] Fastmarkets reports that US linerboard trucking costs are up $25–50/t since spring, with diesel at near-record levels. On 2026-09-30 it reported record diesel supporting firm recovered-paper demand. Producers have a cost-based argument for holding prices. https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/us-linerboard-trucking-costs-rise-25-50-per-ton-as-diesel-fuel-prices-hit-record-levels/ - [2026-10-01] Fastmarkets Europe: kraftliner is up a cumulative €200/t YTD, and RCCM rose €60/t in September. Several cartonboard and WLC makers announced Q4 and November hikes of €75–100/t. Global packaging-paper momentum is still upward, which limits import-driven price relief in the US. https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/packaging-focus-september-recycled-containerboard-and-ukl-prices-rise-while-fbb-and-wlc-prices-remain-stable/ - [2026-10-12] Sappi Europe announced coated woodfree increases of 5–7% from Oct 12 and board increases of €89/t from Nov 1. This is a non-US signal of continued cost pass-through into Q4. https://lesprom.com/en/news/Sappi_Europe_increases_paper_board_price_124655 - [2026-05-xx] US uncoated freesheet is structurally tight. A Q1 trade report (specialtyprintcomm) notes the Chillicothe closure and IP's Riverdale exit from UFS, with operating rates in the low to mid 90s through 2026. Second-wave UFS hikes were announced for June: Boise +5%, Domtar +4–6%, Sustana +4–8%. Tight supply of this kind makes a sharp price drop by November unlikely. https://specialtyprintcomm.com/blog/the-paper-market-unfolded-q1-2026/ - [2026-04-xx] Sheridan attributed the spring increases to war-driven cost inflation (US–Iran conflict) in energy, freight and logistics. The Sept PPI showed final-demand energy still up 10.8% (per colleagues). The costs behind the 2026 paper rise have not unwound. https://www.sheridan.com/insights/paper-market-update-april-2026/ - [2026-10-06] Midland/ResourceWise: containerboard was flat in August, with the third round only starting in September, and the index has recognised a net $100/t in 2026. About $140/t announced against $70–100/t recognised means a possible further recognition in October or November. https://www.midlandco.com/the-resourcewise-u-s-unbleached-corrugated-box-cost-index-a-cost-based-alternative-for-corrugated-contract-price-adjustments/ Most likely path to YES: the index stays in its roughly 282–283 plateau, or edges up as the partly recognised $140/t containerboard round and UFS hikes feed through. The Nov first print would then come in near 282, about 7 points above the strike. This needs only (a) no drop of more than 2.7% over Oct–Nov, and (b) BLS publishing on Dec 15 as scheduled. BOTTOM LINE: The case for YES is strong. It rests on a level about 7.5 points above the strike, still-rising cost inputs, a partly recognised third containerboard round, and a BLS-confirmed Dec 15 release date. The main residual risk is a publication delay. NOT FOUND: October 2026 US UFS or newsprint price actions; US containerboard price recognition for October; any analyst forecast for the Nov WPU0913 level; sibling Kalshi strikes. The BLS page confirms the Dec 15 date but was last modified Feb 18, so it does not rule out later changes.

YES means: the first-published BLS value of WPU0913 (Paper PPI, NSA, 1982=100) for November 2026 is above 275. I found no evidence that supports a NO outcome. The best NO arguments are all tail risks. - [2026-10-16] The BLS release schedule, fetched in full, lists the November 2026 PPI for Dec. 15, 2026 at 08:30 AM. That is the trading-close date. The NO path here is a technicality: if the market's close or settlement mechanics treat a print arriving on the final day as too late, or if BLS slips the date, there may be no valid first print. The schedule shows no slip. The page says it is updated "as needed". The Oct–Nov 2025 shutdown moved those PPIs to Jan 14, 2026. Whether a missing print resolves NO or voids the market is not in the rules I was given. https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/ppi.htm - [2026-10-16] The 2022–2025 FRED monthly data show how far this series can fall in a short window. The largest short-window fall I can see is Jun to Aug 2023, from 250.148 to 246.618, about 3.5 points or 1.4%. The recent run-up has no comparable drop. A NO needs about 7.5 points (2.7%) over two months, roughly twice the worst case in the data. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/WPU0913.txt - [2026-10-16] The 2026 level jump (256.98 in Jan to 282.5) happened over eight months. The step-ups were Feb +6.9, Apr +6.1, May +5.7 and Jun +3.8. Since July the series has been flat. A NO story would be a post-spike giveback. The monthly series does not show a precedent for that in this period. Its 2022 rise to about 250 (Oct 2022) was followed by flat or slightly lower readings, not a reversal. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/WPU0913.txt - [2026-08-xx] Fastmarkets RISI recognized only a net $100/t in 2026, and containerboard was flat in July and August. The announced third round ($140/t) was expected to be implemented slowly, into early 2027. The same article cites the AICC's criticism of the hikes. The only plausible NO mechanism is a weak-demand rollback, such as a discount-led give-back. Nothing I found shows one in progress, and the article points to further upward lag. https://www.packagingdive.com/news/august-2026-containerboard-fiber-pricing-fastmarkets-risi-price-increase-producers/828679/ - [2026-10-14] Fastmarkets reported GCC testliner and fluting indices fell in September on subdued demand and logistics costs. That is the Gulf region, not the US. It is the only soft-price headline I found in October containerboard coverage, and it is weak support for NO. https://www.fastmarkets.com/forest-products/containerboard/ - [2026-08-xx] PCA's Q2 10-Q reports North American uncoated freesheet shipments down 9.1% in H1 2026 versus H1 2025, even as cut-size prices rose 5.8% q/q in Q2. This is the best demand-weakness argument for NO: price gains are being pushed through on falling volumes, and a demand-driven roll-back is conceivable. It does not show any decline yet. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000075677/000119312526339405/pkg-20260630.htm - [2026-10-15] Fastmarkets reports record diesel prices and firm recovered-paper demand through mid-September. Input and freight cost inflation is a source of upward, not downward, price pressure. That undercuts any NO case built on falling costs. https://www.fastmarkets.com/forest-products/recovered-paper/ - [2026-10-06] Sappi Europe announced a €89/t paper board increase effective Nov 1, 2026. That is a European signal of price firmness, not a NO factor. https://www.midlandco.com/sappi-europe-announces-price-increase-for-paper-board/ BOTTOM LINE: Under the resolution criteria read literally, NO needs either a drop of more than 7.5 points in two months, which has no precedent in the 2022–2026 data, or a publication or timing failure on Dec 15. The BLS calendar shows the Dec 15 release, so NO rests on tail risks. NOT FOUND: any October or November 2026 US paper price cuts or rollbacks; a Fastmarkets October US containerboard or UFS print; any statement of how Kalshi treats a release that lands on the close date or is delayed; the first-print September vintage (so the first-print versus revised gap is unquantified).