Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election?

- [2026-10-16] The CEC's candidate qualification review is finished. It found all 23 municipal-mayor registrants eligible. New Taipei has 3 candidates: Lee Shu-chuan (KMT, jointly backed by the TPP), Su Chiao-hui (DPP) and independent Su Hui-huang. https://www.storm.mg/lifestyle/11173103 - [2026-09-04] Registration closed. Su Chiao-hui registered on 09-02 and Lee on 09-04. Su Hui-huang registered at the last minute with a NT$1.2m deposit, so the ballot has 3 candidates. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202609040312.aspx - [2026-10-15] A Chujuan Tianxia online poll (Pearson Data, fieldwork 09-28 to 10-03, n=1,066, ±3%) shows Lee at 45.74% and Su at 45.18%. Compared with July, Lee is down 5.11 points and Su is up 1.12. Undecided voters rose from 3.4% to 6.96%. https://news.tvbs.com.tw/politics/4036357 - [2026-10-13] A Taipei Trust in Democracy Association poll (designed by Tai Li-an, fieldwork 10-06 to 10-08) shows Su at 43.1%, Lee at 30.0% and Su Hui-huang at 1.5%. Su's projected vote share is 50.1–53.1% against 46.0–48.9% for Lee, a lead of about 4.1 points ±3. https://udn.com/news/story/124652/9811013 - [2026-10-13] The same association's first wave, published 09-01, had Su 35.2% and Lee 34.7%. Lee's campaign said the 10-13 sample does not match New Taipei's real voter structure. https://theinitium.com/20261015-whatsnew-taiwan-local-elections-new-taipei-city-mayor/ - [2026-10-13] Earlier polls were mixed and commissioned by interested parties. The DPP caucus (Shanshui poll, published 10-02) had Su +4.6 (39.1 to 34.5). The KMT caucus (TVBS poll, published 10-07) had Lee +6.7 (42.6 to 35.9). https://tw.news.yahoo.com/%E3%80%90%E6%88%B4%E7%AB%8B%E5%AE%89%E6%B0%91%E8%AA%BF%E3%80%91%E4%BF%A1%E6%B0%91%E5%8D%94%E6%9C%83%E5%85%AC%E5%B8%83%E6%96%B0%E5%8C%97%E5%B8%82%E9%95%B7%E9%81%B8%E8%88%89%E6%B0%91%E8%AA%BF-%E6%9D%8E%E5%9B%9B%E5%B7%9D%E3%80%81%E8%98%87%E5%B7%A7%E6%85%A7%E6%94%AF%E6%8C%81%E5%BA%A6%E5%B7%AE%E8%B7%9D%E6%93%B4%E5%A4%A7%E5%88%B0%E5%85%A9%E4%BD%8D%E6%95%B8-032924291.html - [2026-10-15] The Chujuan Tianxia poll also shows a Taipei spillover, the "ocean current" effect from DPP's Shen Po-yang's rise in the Taipei race. The "Shen–Su" pairing is rated more likely to win (47.62%) than the "Chiang–Lee" pairing (45.16%). In July, Chiang–Lee led by 11.4 points. https://news.tvbs.com.tw/politics/4036357 - [2026-10-13] By district in the Chujuan Tianxia poll, Su leads in Xinzhuang and in her home district (Tucheng, Shulin, Sanxia, Yingge). Lee leads in Sanchong–Luzhou (50.2 to 38.9) and Banqiao (49.8 to 44.7), both within the margin of error. The Zhonghe and Yonghe gap is about 2 points. https://news.tvbs.com.tw/politics/4036357 - [2026-10-13] Anecdotal street polls by a YouTube channel found Su and Lee tied in Tucheng and Su ahead by 5 votes in Shulin. These are non-scientific. https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20261013004374-260407 - [2026-04-28] The KMT–TPP joint primary picked Lee over TPP chair Huang Kuo-chang. Lee led Su by 34 to 28.5 and by 36.3 to 24.5 in the two primary polls. https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202604280024 - [2026-10-15] Campaign news: the KMT accused Su's sister of improper National Development Fund investment, and Su's office called this smearing. Su's campaign is leaning on the Taipei spillover. https://news.tvbs.com.tw/politics/4036357 - [2026-11-28] Election day is 2026-11-28, one day before the market closes. The CEC result (db.cec.gov.tw) shows nothing yet. https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-tw/2026%E5%B9%B4%E4%B8%AD%E8%8F%AF%E6%B0%91%E5%9C%8B%E5%9C%B0%E6%96%B9%E5%85%AC%E8%81%B7%E4%BA%BA%E5%93%A1%E9%81%B8%E8%88%89 BOTTOM LINE: The race has moved from a Lee lead in spring to a toss-up or modest Su edge in mid-October, helped by the Taipei "ocean current" spillover. Polls conflict by sponsor: pro-green polls show Su +4 to +13, an online poll shows a tie, and the KMT-commissioned poll showed Lee +6.7 in early October. Nothing is resolved before 11-28. NOT FOUND: Any independent, non-partisan poll from the last week beyond the two above. Scheduled debates or other events before 11-28. A fetched copy of the Taipei Times article (it failed to load). Any live CEC result page.

- [2026-10-14] Reference class: New Taipei has been KMT-held since 2005. The DPP's only executive wins were You Ching (1989–97) and Su Tseng-chang (1997–2004), both as county magistrate, and Su Tseng-chang is Su Chiao-hui's father. The seat is open because Hou Yu-ih is term-limited. Historical base rate favors the KMT, but an open seat weakens the incumbency edge. https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202511050020 - [2026-10-13] Beacon Market Research poll for the Taipei Trust in Democracy Association (Tai Li-an designed it), fielded Oct 6–8 with n=1,073 and a ±3 margin: Su 43.1%, Lee 30%. Its modeled vote share is Su 50.1–53.1% and Lee 46–48.9%, about Su +4.1±3. Su's gain came from undecided voters. The pollster said many outfits withhold lopsided results, and that parties will keep calling the race close. https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/news/6457701 - [2026-10-14] The same poll's earlier wave (late Aug) had Su 35.2% and Lee 34.7%. The sponsor says March–August polls were roughly 50/50. The sponsor is a pan-green-leaning group, and Lee's campaign said the sample doesn't match New Taipei's real voter structure. https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2026/10/14/2003865935 - [2026-10-15] 鉅聞 (Storm Media) poll: Lee 45.74%, Su 45.18%, a 0.56-point gap. In July the same poll had Lee at 50.85% and Su at 44.06%, so the trend favors Su. https://www.storm.mg/lifestyle/11172558 - [2026-09-23] 震傳媒 poll had Su ahead by about 1 point. Commentator 沈政男 argued Lee would still win because the blue-white (KMT+TPP) bloc is larger in New Taipei and swing voters turn out at lower rates. https://www.storm.mg/article/11167675 - [2026-04-28] The KMT–TPP joint primary polls picked Lee over TPP chair Huang Kuo-chang. Lee led Su by 6 and 12 points in the two primary polls (Huang trailed by 3 in one and led by 2 in the other). Huang withdrew, so the opposition is unified behind Lee. https://english.ftvnews.com.tw/news/2026428W08EA - [2026-10-13] Analyst 張禹宣 says Su leads by only about 4 points on a turnout-adjusted basis. He says Lee is a "大盤型" candidate whose standing tracks the KMT's overall fortunes, and notes Lee once led Su by 9.8. The Initium also flags a possible "silent blue voter" effect. Street-intercept polls in Tucheng (tied) and Shulin (Su +5) were informal. https://theinitium.com/20261015-whatsnew-taiwan-local-elections-new-taipei-city-mayor/ - [2026-10-16] Kalshi market, same event (Nov 28): Su 54%, Lee 43%. A Lines.com snapshot dated 2026-08-23 had Lee at 57% and Su at 44% on a Polymarket-type contract. That implies the market swung toward Su between August and mid-October. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnewtaipeimayor/new-taipei-mayoral-election-winner/kxnewtaipeimayor-26nov28 - [2026-09-24] NBR (a think tank) describes a tight race with Su holding a modest lead in the latest polls. It also says Su is the more experienced campaigner and Lee is a first-time candidate. https://www.nbr.org/publication/a-look-ahead-to-taiwans-2026-local-elections/ - [2026-10-13] DPP-friendly outlets (Liberty Times, Tai Li-an) describe a "current" (洋流) effect, a Taipei/national swing toward the DPP. The same poll found 44.2% of respondents favoring a switch to the DPP versus 27.9% for KMT continuity. https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/paper/1774405 - [2026-10-16] The election is on Nov 28, 2026. A third candidate, independent Su Hui-huang, polls about 1.5%. https://udn.com/news/story/124652/9811013 BOTTOM LINE: The structural base rate favors the KMT, which has held New Taipei for about 20 years. Current polling is mixed: one pro-DPP-sponsored poll has Su well ahead (about +4 modeled), one has a near tie, and there's a clear trend toward Su since July–August. Taken together, this looks like a toss-up with a slight lean to Su, and the polling record of the sources is unverified. NOT FOUND: Track records of these specific pollsters. Polls from neutral major outlets (TVBS, 聯合報, 中時) from the last 30 days. Any CEC or official forecast. Historical New Taipei polling error from 2018/2022, which I did not look up.

YES means: Su Chiao-hui (DPP) is certified by the CEC as the winner of the New Taipei mayoral election held 2026-11-28. - [2026-10-15] The Chujuan Tianxia poll (see the 10-15 entry in the colleague reports) puts the Lee–Su gap at 0.56 points, against a stated gap margin of ±5.72. The poll was fielded 09-28 to 10-03. Su leads by 24.07 points in Xinzhuang and 16.65 in Tucheng–Shulin–Sanxia–Yingge. Lee leads by 55.93 in the Ruiping–Shuangxi–Gongliao district. The other 8 of 11 council districts are within the margin. Su's gains are therefore concentrated in populous districts, and Lee's blowout is in a small rural district. https://www.ettoday.net/news/20261015/3255027.htm - [2026-10-13] The Trust in Democracy Association poll had 15.8% undecided and 9.5% saying they would not vote or would cast an invalid ballot. Su's gain came from undecided voters and from KMT-leaning districts (Taipei Times subhead). Su was up 7.9 points on late August and Lee down 4.7. On "suitable as mayor" Su leads 48.6% to 35.9%. Lee's "unsuitable" figure rose to 33.5%, up 6.5 points. https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2026/10/14/2003865935 - [2026-10-13] The same poll's "who will win" question also favored Su (34.8% to 32.8%). Su leads on expectation of winning even inside a hostile electorate, a sign that momentum is not confined to her own supporters. https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/breakingnews/5604370 - [2026-10-14] The DPP's own social-media analysis (QSearch, one week to 10-11) gave Su a net +0.8% sentiment. She was the only Greater Taipei candidate with a positive net rating. Lee's net was −16.9%, and Chiang Wan-an's was −44%. Caveat: the party's own official warned that KMT/TPP voters are quiet online and that the DPP "echo chamber" may overstate its strength. https://taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2026/10/14/2003865936 - [2026-10-01] Social-media volume tracked by Liberty Times (~10-01): Su had 95k mentions against 88k for Lee, with a stronger positive share. This is a sponsor-friendly outlet and it measures buzz, not votes. https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/breakingnews/5591491 - [2026-10-09] Su's joint HQ launch in Xinzhuang with Taipei's Shen Po-yang drew an overflow crowd. Shen says only "the last mile" remains. Han Kuo-yu, the KMT Legislative Speaker, described the New Taipei race as "boiling water" at a National Day event in Banqiao, which is an unusual admission of a tight race from the blue side. https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/paper/1774029 - [2026-10-16] Su's 2025–26 trajectory: Lee led by about 10 points in late 2025 and early January 2026 per commentators. A DPP internal poll showed Su ahead by 4 by about April (Taiwan News, 176 days before search). The April joint-primary polls then had Lee at +6 and +12. This indicates a recurring cycle of recovery for Su rather than a one-off bounce. https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/news/6345695 - [2026-10-13] Su's own message on 10-13 was caution. She said the KMT's polls still don't show her ahead, and she wants to win "over half" of the vote. She has campaigned for more than 800 days. This is consistent with a disciplined, well-organized campaign and reduces the risk of complacency. https://udn.com/news/story/124652/9811733 - [2026-10-10] KMT-commissioned TVBS polls have shown Lee ahead by about 6–7 points in all four waves (6/2–6, 7/20–23, 8/28–30, 9/29–10/3). The lead has been completely flat, with no erosion. The flatness is the pro-Su rebuttal: even the blue-sponsored series shows no growth, while neutral or online polls moved toward Su. Commentator Huang Wei-han (pro-blue) is quoted telling the KMT to look at this series rather than dismiss Tai's poll. https://tw.news.yahoo.com/%E6%96%B0%E5%8C%97%E6%B0%91%E8%AA%BF%E9%9C%87%E6%92%BC%E5%87%BA%E7%88%90-%E9%80%99%E7%BE%A4%E4%BA%BA-%E4%B8%8D%E6%8C%BA%E6%9D%8E%E5%9B%9B%E5%B7%9D%E4%BA%86-050535612.html - [2022-11-26] Key historical caution against the YES path: Hou Yu-ih won 62.42% to 37.58% in 2022 (1,152,555 to 693,976 votes). In 2014 he won 57.14%, against Su Tseng-chang. Hou beat four published pre-election polls (UDN, Liberty Times, ETtoday, Gallup). Polls have understated the KMT in New Taipei before, so Su needs a real, not just polled, swing. This is the bar the YES path must clear. https://newtalk.tw/news/view/2022-11-26/845539 - [2022-07-25] The 2022 reference points: UDN's July 2022 poll had Hou +36 (57 to 21), Liberty's Sept poll had Hou 51.96 to 21.74, and ETtoday had Hou +25.3. Compared with those, a 2026 race within single digits (all published polls, including TVBS's +6.7) is a much more competitive environment. This is an open seat with no incumbent. https://news.tvbs.com.tw/politics/1857589 BOTTOM LINE: The most likely YES path is open-seat dynamics combined with a Taipei "ocean current" spillover. Su wins the new/undecided voters (a 15.8% pool in the Tai Li-an poll) and holds a lead in the populous Xinzhuang, Tucheng and Shulin districts. She also keeps the DPP base unified, while the KMT–TPP vote does not fully consolidate behind Lee. The prerequisite is a real swing of about 5+ points beyond what KMT-sponsored polls show, since all TVBS waves have Lee ahead and 2022 polls understated the KMT. NOT FOUND: A neutral major-outlet (UDN, ETtoday, Gallup) New Taipei poll from the last 30 days. Pollster track records for 2022. TPP-voter transfer rates to Lee. Fresh KMT-internal numbers.

YES means: Su Chiao-hui (DPP) is certified as the winner of the Nov 28, 2026 New Taipei mayoral election. NO means anyone else wins, or no result is known by 2027-06-30. - [2026-10-13] The 13.1-point Su lead comes from a sample with only 21.3% KMT identifiers against 34.5% DPP. Critic 政客爽 contrasts this with the 2024 party-list vote in New Taipei, where the KMT took about 850k votes to the DPP's 840k. If the sample is skewed, the headline lead is overstated. The 4-point turnout-adjusted lead is the sponsor's own model. https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20261013004030-260407 - [2026-11-26, 2022 precedent] In 2022 Hou Yu-ih won New Taipei with 62.42% (1,152,555 votes to 693,976). He finished above the final polls of UDN, Liberty Times, ETtoday and Gallup/BCC. The 2014 KMT win was 57.14%. The last two open contests show polls understating the KMT in New Taipei. https://newtalk.tw/news/view/2022-11-26/845539 - [2026-10-13] The poll's pollster rebutted the KMT-side polls by saying that weighting with 2018 "Han Wave" data would distort. This confirms the dispute is over turnout and weighting models. Su's lead depends on likely-voter modelling, which is the contested piece. https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/breakingnews/5604370 - [2026-10-07] The KMT caucus poll, Lee +6.7, found 83.7% of KMT supporters and 77.8% of TPP supporters backing Lee, while only 1.8% of TPP supporters backed Su. Lee's centrist lead was said to widen from 5.8 to 12.3 points. The KMT caucus says Lee's lead has been stable since June. Sponsor-reported, so partisan. https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20261007002078-260407 - [2026-10-15, Storm Media poll] Lee still leads, 45.74 to 45.18. In the same poll, Lee leads Su 46.62 to 36.25 among centrist voters, though the lead is down 8.19 points from the prior wave. The only recent media poll without a party sponsor still has Lee nominally ahead, and Su has not yet overtaken him in it. https://www.ftnn.com.tw/news/587449 - [2026-10-16] The Taiwan Desk newsletter says New Taipei "usually leans blue", so a Su win would be a major surprise. It says other recent polls have the KMT slightly ahead or tied. https://thetaiwandesk.substack.com/p/newsletter-21-october-10-16 - [2026-10-13] ETtoday's poll (the earliest I found, dated 156 days before today, i.e. about May) had Lee 42.5 to Su 41.7 after the KMT-TPP merger. Su's high-water marks have repeatedly been within the margin of error, never a robust lead in a neutral poll. https://tw.news.yahoo.com/%E6%96%B0%E5%8C%97%E5%B8%82%E9%95%B7%E6%9C%80%E6%96%B0%E6%B0%91%E8%AA%BF%E5%87%BA%E7%88%90-%E8%88%87%E6%9D%8E%E5%9B%9B%E5%B7%9D%E9%A9%9A%E4%BA%BA%E5%B7%AE%E8%B7%9D%E6%9B%9D-%E8%98%87%E5%B7%A7%E6%85%A7%E5%9B%9E%E6%87%89%E4%BA%86-035811417.html - [2026-10-14, Taipei Times] In the Beacon poll, 15.8% were undecided and 9.5% would not vote or would spoil their ballot. Su's gain came from undecideds. Undecideds and non-voters in the KMT-leaning districts are the group that "silent blue" turnout could still move, so the poll's lead is not locked in. https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2026/10/14/2003865935 - [2026-10-16] The Taipei mayoral debate between Chiang and Shen is set for Oct 31. Su's gain rides on the Taipei spillover, which depends on Shen Po-yang's momentum. Any fade in Shen's momentum, or a Chiang debate win, would remove the spillover. https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2026/10/16/2003866061 - [2026-10-16] Chinatimes carried a "watermelon effect" commentary on that day, arguing polls may be manipulating trends rather than reflecting them. It also said the KMT's Hou team moved to full campaign support for Lee. This is the KMT side's mobilisation narrative, an opinion piece, not data. https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20261016001277-260407 - [Resolution mechanics] The market resolves on the CEC result. Election day is Nov 28 and trading closes Nov 29. A "Other" outcome would only arise if there is no certified winner by 2027-06-30. A recount or lawsuit would have to run for seven months to cause that. Deadline risk is negligible, so NO is essentially "Lee (or the independent) wins". I found nothing in the criteria that works against Su. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest NO case rests on the KMT's 20-year hold on the seat and the 2022 pattern of polls understating the KMT. The lone pro-Su blowout poll has a DPP-skewed sample, and the neutral online poll and the KMT poll both still show Lee nominally ahead. Technicalities add almost nothing, so NO is a matter of Lee's turnout and the fading of the Taipei spillover. NOT FOUND: Any 2018/2022 pollster-specific error figures beyond the 2022 final-vote comparison; polls from UDN, TVBS or China Times Poll in the last 30 days beyond the TVBS-run KMT caucus poll; a live CEC result.