Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?

- [2026-11-03] The general election is on Nov 3 and the market closes Nov 4. Pappas (D) faces Sununu (R) in an open seat, because Shaheen is retiring. No result exists yet. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire - [2026-09-08] Both nominees are set. Pappas won the Democratic primary with about 65% against Manzur. Sununu won the Republican primary with about 68.5% against Scott Brown. The AP projected both winners shortly after 8 p.m. https://newhampshirebulletin.com/2026/09/08/pappas-and-sununu-prevail-in-primaries-setting-up-expensive-fight-for-u-s-senate/ - [2026-10-12] Local reporting says Pappas's lead has widened. A month earlier he held a slim two-point lead. Now "the most recent polls show Pappas with a seven- to eight-point lead." About $50M has been spent on the race, much of it outside money. https://wgme.com/news/local/democrat-chris-pappas-appears-to-hold-narrow-lead-over-gop-republican-john-sununu-in-new-hampshire-senate-race - [2026-10-06] A new AARP/NHIP poll of likely voters shows Pappas 51%, Sununu 44%. The Hill puts that lead at 7 points. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6132186-pappas-leads-nh-senate-poll/ - [2026-10-05] The RealClearPolling average (polls dated 9/9–10/5) is Pappas +5.9 (49.0–43.1). Its latest polls: - YouGov, 9/28–10/5: Pappas +8 - St. Anselm, 9/28–9/29: +7 - Rasmussen, 10/2–10/4: +5 - Trafalgar, 9/26–9/27: +6 - UNH, 9/17–9/21: +8 - NYT/Siena, 9/15–9/22: +5 - InsiderAdvantage, 9/16–9/17: +8 - co/efficient, 9/9–9/11: tie https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2026/new-hampshire/pappas-vs-sununu - [2026-10-05] Pollsmax shows a 26-poll average of Pappas +5.3 (47.5–42.2). https://www.pollsmax.com/senate/new-hampshire/ - [2026-10-06] Cook Political Report moved New Hampshire from Toss-up to Lean Democratic. Cook had moved it from Lean D to Toss-up on 2026-09-15, so this reverses that shift. The same Oct 6 update moved Kansas to Toss-up and North Carolina to Likely D. https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-election/cook-political-report-2026-senate - [2026-09-15] Washington Post reported Cook had moved the race to Toss-up, calling New Hampshire a "surprise battleground." That was after the early September polls (a UNH poll a month before 9/24 had Sununu ahead by two). https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/09/15/new-hampshire-senate-race-now-classified-toss-up-good-sign-gop/ - [2026-10-05] Newsweek, on the Rasmussen 10/2–10/4 poll, says Pappas's lead over Sununu has shrunk. Rasmussen's 9/11 poll had Pappas +11 (45–34); the new one has +5 (49–44). The new poll shows Constitution Party candidate Edmond Laplante at 3%. https://www.newsweek.com/gops-sununu-surges-in-bid-to-flip-democrats-new-hampshire-senate-seat-12526638 - [2026-10-13] First debate, in North Conway. Both candidates tried to claim independence from their national parties. Pappas tied Sununu to Trump; Sununu accused Pappas of lying and of being tied to Biden. No decisive moment was reported. https://nhjournal.com/chris-is-lying-sununu-fires-back-at-pappas-in-first-senate-debate/ - [2026-10-14] Union Leader says both candidates have six more scheduled events. These include a WMUR-TV debate on Oct 28 and an NHPR/Dartmouth debate on Oct 29. https://www.unionleader.com/news/politics/pappas-sununu-separately-snipe-over-social-security-at-aarp-nh-reform-a31d41fc - [2026-10-16] The Hill reports that Don Bolduc, the 2022 Trump-backed GOP Senate nominee, endorsed Pappas on Friday. The Hill says Pappas has maintained his lead. The article page could not be fetched; the details come from a search snippet and the Yahoo syndication. https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/former-hampshire-gop-senate-candidate-162525776.html - [2026-10-11] On CBS, Pappas said "we're taking nothing for granted." He cited New Hampshire's lack of early voting and called it a "tough race." Republicans have not won a NH Senate race since 2010, and Trump endorsed Sununu. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/chris-pappas-new-hampshire-democrat-tough-race/ BOTTOM LINE: As of Oct 16, Pappas leads in every public poll since mid-September (average about +5 to +6, recent polls +5 to +8). Cook rates the race Lean D, and the main remaining events are the Oct 28 and Oct 29 debates and election day. Sununu's name recognition and the tightening in some polls (such as Rasmussen) are the main uncertainties. NOT FOUND: Current AP, Fox and NBC race calls (none exist before the election). The current Sabato and Inside Elections ratings; Ballotpedia only showed March 2026 ratings (Lean D and Tilt D). Any post-debate poll. The latest Senate fundraising figures (the fetched Wikipedia page was stale).

- [2026-11-03] The election is on Nov 3, 2026. Nominees are Rep. Chris Pappas (D) and former Sen. John E. Sununu (R). Pappas won the Sept 8 primary with 65%. Sununu won with 68.5% over Scott Brown. Republicans have not won a NH Senate race since 2010. Harris carried the state by about 3 points in 2024. The seat is open because Shaheen is retiring. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire - [2026-10-06] Cook Political Report moved NH from Toss-up to Lean Democratic on Oct 6. It had moved the race from Lean D to Toss-up on Sept 15 (WaPo: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/09/15/new-hampshire-senate-race-now-classified-toss-up-good-sign-gop/). https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-election/cook-political-report-2026-senate - [2026-03-31] Ballotpedia's March ratings were Cook Lean D, Sabato Lean D and Inside Elections Tilt D. One aggregator dated Oct 15 lists Inside Elections as Toss-up; I did not verify that against the primary source. https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2026 and https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/new-hampshire-senate - [2026-10-05] The RealClearPolling average (9/9–10/5) is Pappas 49.0, Sununu 43.1 (D+5.9). Individual polls: YouGov D+8, St. Anselm D+7, Trafalgar (R) D+6, UNH D+8, NYT/Siena D+5, InsiderAdvantage D+8, Rasmussen D+5. co/efficient (9/9–9/11) showed a tie. UNH in August had Sununu +2. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2026/new-hampshire/pappas-vs-sununu - [2026-10-06] An AARP/NH Institute of Politics poll has Pappas ahead 51–44. Among voters 50 and older his lead shrinks to 1 point. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6132186-pappas-leads-nh-senate-poll/ - [2026-10-05] Time reports GOP optimism rests on Sununu's name and on voters who prefer a Democratic Senate but say they'll vote Sununu. In one poll Democrats led the generic-Senate preference by 9 points but Pappas led by only 5. https://time.com/article/2026/10/05/new-hampshire-blue-wave-republicans-sununu-pappas/ - [2026-10-15] Axios reports that Don Bolduc, Trump's 2022 NH Senate nominee, and other Republicans and independents have endorsed Pappas. Axios says polling "consistently" favors Pappas. https://www.axios.com/2026/10/15/chris-pappas-don-bolduc-new-hampshire-senate-endorsement - [2026-10-12] Other venues, for reference only. Polymarket's last trade was Pappas 88.5¢ and Kalshi's midpoint was 89.5¢. By Oct 14–15 Kalshi was about 90¢ (Pappas) and 11¢ (Sununu). https://predictreport.io/arbitrage/politics/new-hampshire-senate-race-2026 and https://www.gamingtoday.com/prediction-markets/politics/2026-midterm-elections-predictions/ - [2026-10-15] A market-vs-pundit gap exists: markets sit near 90% while Cook and Sabato rate the race Lean D. Market prices rose from the low 80s in late summer to about 90¢. https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/new-hampshire-senate - [2026-10-11] Forecast models: Poliwave has a "Likely Democrat" forecast of D+6.7. The Pollsmax average is D+5.3 across 26 polls. https://www.poliwave.com/us/nh/sen-fed and https://www.pollsmax.com/senate/new-hampshire/ - [2026-10-15] Historical base rate: NH has elected Democrats to the Senate in every cycle since 2010. Shaheen won 2008, 2014 and 2020. Hassan won in 2016 by about 1,000 votes (2016 result recalled from the Ballotpedia citation of "Hassan narrowly beats Ayotte", not independently verified). In 2014 Shaheen led Brown in polling averages by about 3.5 points in early October and won. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/gop-candidate-brown-takes-first-poll-lead-in-new-hampshire-senate-race.amp - [2026-10-15] Context: Republicans hold the governorship, where Ayotte leads by about 11 points. Pappas's polling lead runs ahead of the state's partisan lean. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_New_Hampshire_gubernatorial_election - [2026-10-15] Resolution mechanics: the market resolves when AP, Fox and NBC all call the race, otherwise on certification. NH calls are usually same night unless the margin is very narrow. No run-off exists in NH. I did not find a source on typical call timing. BOTTOM LINE: Polls (about D+6), the Lean D ratings and a 2010–2020 record of Democratic Senate wins all favor Pappas. Markets (about 89–90%) are more confident than the pundit ratings. The main risks are NH's history of thin margins and Sununu's name recognition. NOT FOUND: Sabato's and Inside Elections' current (October) NH ratings from primary sources. Silver Bulletin, 538-style and Economist model probabilities for NH. A cited historical base rate for polling leaders of about 6 points three weeks out. Typical AP call timing for NH.

YES means: Democrat Chris Pappas wins the Nov 3, 2026 New Hampshire U.S. Senate race. The AP, Fox and NBC must all call it for him, or he must win on certification. - [2026-10-14] Sabato's Crystal Ball moved NH from Leans D to Likely D. This is new since the Cook Lean D shift (Oct 6) and the Ballotpedia March ratings. Sabato says Pappas has been at or above 50% in recent nonpartisan polling and that a Pappas loss "would be a big surprise." It says that, apart from the 2010 wave, Democrats have won every NH Senate race since Sununu lost in 2008. https://sabatoscrystalball.substack.com/p/five-senate-rating-changes-as-close - [2026-10-14] In the same Sabato piece, the national environment is the main prerequisite for a Pappas win. Sabato sees "no clear signs" of a GOP recovery and says Trump's net approval is at least 20 points underwater. Republicans now need 4 of 5 Toss-ups to hold the Senate, which suggests the party is spread thin. The caveat Sabato names is that polls may undercount GOP voters. https://sabatoscrystalball.substack.com/p/five-senate-rating-changes-as-close - [2026-10-15] Q3 fundraising (reports filed Oct 15) shows Pappas $8.1M to Sununu's $1.5M. This is the money behind the Oct 12 "$50M spent" headline: the candidates' own money is lopsided to Pappas, and Sununu's side relies on outside groups. Pappas's campaign says 47,300 new donors gave in Q3. Yahoo/Politico syndication (not fetched; search snippet) and https://chrispappas.org/2026/10/chris-pappas-for-senate-announces-q3-fundraising-haul-of-more-than-8-1-million/ - [2026-10-15] A conflicting Q3 figure exists. HuffPost and World Today Journal give $5.7M for Pappas against $1.1M for Sununu, versus $8.1M and $1.5M in Pappas's release and the Yahoo piece. Either way Pappas has about a 5:1 edge. https://huffpost.com/entry/live-updates_n_6acc9961e4b0a568b68e46d5 - [2026-10-07] Ballotpedia, quoting the Washington Post, says voters are casting ballots on party lines as a referendum on Trump rather than on Sununu's personal strengths. AP quotes Democratic consultant Marchand saying Sununu benefited from redirected national money while Democrats were slow to invest. Democrats have won NH's presidential vote every cycle since 2004. https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/10/07/new-hampshire-u-s-senate-race-between-chris-pappas-d-and-john-sununu-r-will-help-determine-control-of-the-chamber/ - [2026-09-17 to 09-21] UNH poll (1,418 likely voters): Pappas 50, Sununu 42. Sununu's favorability is 34% favorable to 49% unfavorable. That undercuts the name-recognition argument. https://www.newsweek.com/chris-pappas-reverses-polling-trend-in-new-hampshire-senate-race-12485786 - [2026-10-02 to 10-04] Rasmussen internals, the poll showing the most tightening: Pappas 49, Sununu 44. Even there, Pappas gets 40% of unaffiliated voters to Sununu's 44%, and gets 15% of Republicans to Sununu's 8% of Democrats. Pappas's crossover is therefore nearly twice Sununu's. https://www.newsweek.com/gops-sununu-surges-in-bid-to-flip-democrats-new-hampshire-senate-seat-12526638 - [2026-10-16] Bolduc is not alone. The Pappas campaign announced a "Country Before Party" committee, and Mezha counts 57 other Republicans and independents. CNN frames Bolduc as a notable GOP defection. The NH Journal reports the GOP "shrugs off" the endorsement. Sununu's spokesman is attacking Pappas as a Pelosi vote. https://www.unionleader.com/news/politics/bolduc-joins-republicans-independents-backing-pappas-for-senate-10f2fd54 and https://nhjournal.com/gop-shrugs-off-bolduc-support-for-pappas-in-senate-race/ - [2026-10-07] Inside Elections still rates the race a Toss-up and DDHQ/The Hill rates it Likely D. This is the Oct 6 snapshot from Ballotpedia, so the ratings are mixed but none favors Sununu. https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/10/07/new-hampshire-u-s-senate-race-between-chris-pappas-d-and-john-sununu-r-will-help-determine-control-of-the-chamber/ - [2026-10-14] Pappas's own fundraising email says Sununu "has taken the lead in the polls" with more than $60M in GOP spending. This contradicts every public poll, so it is fundraising rhetoric and not evidence. https://chrispappasnh.substack.com/p/reaching-out-again-before-tonights Most likely path to YES: the Trump-referendum environment holds. Pappas keeps a polling lead of roughly 5–8 points with 50%+ support. He holds Democrats at about 89% and takes crossover Republicans and independents, while Sununu's unfavorables stay above his favorables. Prerequisites: no GOP late surge or polling miss, and no gaffe in the Oct 28 and Oct 29 debates. A clear Pappas margin would also produce quick AP, Fox and NBC calls. BOTTOM LINE: The case for YES is strong and getting stronger. Sabato upgraded to Likely D on Oct 14, Pappas holds a large fundraising edge, and every nonpartisan poll since mid-September shows him ahead, with Pappas at or near 50%. The main way this fails is a polling miss among Republicans, or a Sununu closing surge that the debates could spark. NOT FOUND: Post-debate polls. Cook's and Inside Elections' primary-source rating text for October. Model probabilities (Silver Bulletin, Economist). The reconciled Q3 FEC numbers: $8.1M vs $5.7M for Pappas. The full Yahoo/Politico fundraising article, which could not be fetched.

YES means: the Democratic nominee (Chris Pappas) is the certified or AP/Fox/NBC-called winner of the Nov 3, 2026 New Hampshire U.S. Senate race. This report argues the NO side, which is a Sununu win or any non-Democratic winner. - [2026-10-14] Sabato's Crystal Ball moved NH from Leans D to Likely D, so the strongest NO case now has to argue against the forecaster consensus. Sabato's Oct 14 update says "it would be a big surprise" if Pappas lost. It also says Republicans have no "clear signs" of recovery nationally. Its own caveat is the NO case's best card: pollsters may be undercounting hard-to-reach Republicans in places where such voters still vote. https://sabatoscrystalball.substack.com/p/five-senate-rating-changes-as-close - [2026-10-06] Ballotpedia lists Inside Elections at Toss-up, Cook and Sabato at Lean D, and DDHQ/The Hill at Likely D. The ratings are split, not unanimous. Inside Elections moved from Tilt D to Toss-up on Sept 3 and, in this source, had not moved back as of Oct 6. https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/10/07/new-hampshire-u-s-senate-race-between-chris-pappas-d-and-john-sununu-r-will-help-determine-control-of-the-chamber/ - [2016 result] Poll-average misses in NH Senate races go in the Republican direction. In 2016 the RCP average in the final week was Ayotte +1.5, and Hassan won by 0.2. WBUR/MassINC had Ayotte +6 days before the vote. The 2016 case shows a Democrat winning only narrowly, but Ayotte also led polls in Oct 2016 by far less than Pappas's roughly 6 points now. A 6-point miss is outside the 2016 range. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2016/new-hampshire/ayotte-vs-hassan - [2026-10-07] Boston Globe: 13% of NH voters plan to split their ticket. Most of them say Pappas for Senate and Ayotte for governor. That helps Pappas more than Sununu, so ticket-splitting is a weaker NO route than the "Ayotte coattails" story implies. The same piece says Democrats are still "playing defense" and expect national Republicans to help Sununu close the gap. https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/10/07/metro/new-hampshire-voters-splitting-tickets-in-senate-governor-races/ - [2026-10-05] Rasmussen (Oct 2–4) shows Pappas winning only 40% of unaffiliated voters to Sununu's 44%. It also shows Pappas at 15% of Republicans against Sununu at 8% of Democrats. Pappas's favorability is 37% favorable and 51% unfavorable. A Pappas win therefore depends on independents breaking his way late. Rasmussen is a Republican-leaning pollster, and its Sept 11 poll was Pappas +11, so it is noisy. https://www.newsweek.com/gops-sununu-surges-in-bid-to-flip-democrats-new-hampshire-senate-seat-12526638 - [2026-10-06] The AARP/NHIP poll's oversample of voters 50 and older shows Pappas up only 1 point in that group. Older voters turn out at the highest rates in NH. Turnout models that lean older would shrink the topline lead. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6132186-pappas-leads-nh-senate-poll/ - [2026-09-15 to 2026-09-24] The recent trend is volatile. Late August UNH had Sununu +2 (45–43) and co/efficient had a tie in mid-September. Cook then moved the race to Toss-up, and Pappas's own campaign told supporters "We're losing." The swing to Pappas +8 came in about three weeks. That shows how fast opinion moves, and it could reverse again after the Oct 28–29 debates. https://www.dailywire.com/news/meet-the-blue-state-senate-candidate-giving-dems-heartburn - [2026-09 / 2026-10] Money favors Sununu. As of mid-September, Republican groups had outspent Democratic ones $16.6M to about $9M. Outside GOP ad spending topped $30M by Sept 8, including Senate Leadership Fund, NRSC, AFP Action and Elon Musk. Pappas has the edge only in direct contributions. Sabato's piece notes Republicans are triaging elsewhere (Georgia, North Carolina) while the resource-rich SLF is spending in Kansas and Nebraska. The Senate map is therefore not abandoning NH-style races. https://www.thecentersquare.com/new_hampshire/article_493742a9-71c5-4520-a285-94fefdcbee85.html and https://www.ms.now/news/new-hampshire-sununu-pappas-senate-republicans - [2026-10-15] Prediction markets price Pappas at about 90¢ on Kalshi, above the Lean D and Likely D ratings. If the market is overconfident, the gap leaves room for a NO result. This is a calibration point only. https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/new-hampshire-senate - [Resolution mechanics] The market resolves once AP, Fox and NBC all call the same candidate, otherwise on official certification. NH has no run-off. Because the races have a Constitution Party candidate (Laplante, 2–3% in polls), a plurality winner is enough, so no majority threshold creates a NO route. No technicality in the rules turns a Pappas win into NO. The 2016 count (about 1,000 votes, called the next morning) shows a close race would push resolution past Nov 4. I would not expect that to produce a NO resolution itself. https://rollcall.com/2016/11/09/ayotte-concedes-new-hampshire-senate-race/ - [2026-10-06] Sununu's strength is the personal brand rather than the party. The RCP race-context text says the name "still means something," that Sununu can "outrun a Democratic wave," and that Pappas "probably pulls it out." Dennehy, a longtime NH Republican strategist, called it a "100% toss-up" in the Daily Wire piece. These are partisan-adjacent views. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2026/new-hampshire/pappas-vs-sununu BOTTOM LINE: The NO case rests on four things: polling error that tends to understate Republicans in NH, a lead built in about three weeks that could move back, a 2–1 GOP money edge, and Inside Elections still at Toss-up. Status quo and the resolution rules do not help NO. Democrats have won every NH Senate race since 2010, nothing in the rules creates a technicality, and Sabato and Cook both moved toward Pappas this month. NOT FOUND: Any poll taken after the Oct 13 debate. Primary-source Inside Elections text after Sept 3, so its current rating comes only from the Ballotpedia and aggregator listings. Any NH-specific late-October poll-miss base rate. Typical AP, Fox and NBC call timing for NH.