Will Mike Lee vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?

- [2026-10-15] The CLARITY Act (H.R. 3633) is still stalled in the Senate. A TechLawNews piece (a lower-quality site) says White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt is leaving. It describes no scheduled floor action. https://techlawnews.com/clarity-act-stalls-senate-crypto-policy-chief-departs - [2026-09-15] The cloture vote on the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633 failed 49–50, well short of 60. American Banker says Republicans Hawley, Collins and Moran voted no. It says Tillis voted no on a motion to recommit, a procedural move. The reporting I read does not say how Mike Lee voted. https://www.americanbanker.com/news/crypto-market-structure-bill-fails-in-senate-vote-49-50 - [2026-09-15] The dispute was over ethics language on officials' crypto profits, and Schumer said those talks broke down. American Banker says the failure "has likely stalled the bill until the next Congress." CNBC reports that Lummis said "it's over" if the vote failed. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/15/senate-cloture-vote-on-clarity-act-fails-dealing-regulatory-setback-to-crypto-industry.html - [2026-10-04, undated snippet, about 19 days before the search] FinTech Weekly says the Senate could procedurally retake the bill, because Tillis changed his vote to preserve that option. It says the earliest a law could come is the lame-duck session, which it calls unlikely. It calls a new attempt in the 2027 Congress "more realistic". https://www.fintechweekly.com/news/what-is-the-clarity-act-digital-asset-market-structure-explained-2026 - [2026-08-08] Thune filed cloture on the motion to proceed, setting the Sept 15 vote. The Senate then left for recess, with only about 14 session days before an October election recess. https://qz.com/senate-crypto-clarity-act-vote-delayed-september-081026 - [2026-05-14] Senate Banking advanced the bill 15–9. All 13 Republicans voted yes, joined by Democrats Gallego and Alsobrooks. The bill was placed on the calendar as No. 423 on June 1. https://www.banking.senate.gov/newsroom/majority/chairman-scott-senate-banking-committee-advance-clarity-act-in-historic-bipartisan-vote - [2026-05-15] At least seven Democrats or independents would need to back the bill to reach 60 votes if all Republicans are in favor. The Senate text is a substitute for the House-passed bill (294–134 on 2025-07-17), so the House would have to act again. https://rollcall.com/2026/05/15/senate-banking-approves-crypto-market-structure-bill/ - [2025-2026, Lee's record] StandWithCrypto rates Lee "strongly supports crypto". He voted for GENIUS Act cloture (2025-05-20) and for final passage (2025-06-12). He co-sponsored the Keep Your Coins Act and has a bill to bar a CBDC. He is a likely yes on a Republican-backed bill, though he has not been reported to have taken a position on this one. https://www.standwithcrypto.org/politicians/person/mike---lee - [2026-09-14] Before the failed vote, Kalshi's sibling "becomes law" markets had priced at about 53% before 2027-10-01 and 45% before April 2027. Those figures are stale. https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/09/14/clarity-act-odds-surge-on-prediction-markets-but-crypto-bill-still-faces-long-road - Resolution mechanics: only the first final vote on the bill counts, so cloture and motion-to-proceed votes do not. No final-passage vote has occurred. The Sept 15 vote was only on the motion to proceed, so Lee has no qualifying vote yet. BOTTOM LINE: The only Senate floor action so far was a failed cloture vote on the motion to proceed (Sept 15), which would not resolve this market anyway. No further votes appear scheduled, and the bill needs 60 votes to reach final passage. Lee would likely vote yes if a final vote happened, so the outcome depends on whether the bill revives in the lame-duck session before 2027-01-01. Current reporting treats that as unlikely. NOT FOUND: Lee's recorded vote on the Sept 15 cloture. Any Senate floor schedule for the bill after Sept 15. Any Lee statement on the Senate CLARITY text. The Senate.gov roll call page.

- [2026-09-15] The Senate cloture vote on the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633 (CLARITY Act) failed. It got about 49–50 votes against the 60 needed. CNBC reports 50 for and 49 against, while Finextra, FinTech Weekly and Triple-A report 49 for and 50 against. This was a procedural vote, not a final vote, so it would not resolve this contract. Lummis said "it's over" if it failed. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/15/senate-cloture-vote-on-clarity-act-fails-dealing-regulatory-setback-to-crypto-industry.html - [2026-09-23] The ethics language on officials' and the president's crypto holdings sank the vote, not the SEC/CFTC split. Tillis entered a motion to reconsider, which keeps the procedural door open. The Senate's work period runs Oct 5 to Nov 6, and a lame-duck session after the election is described as the most plausible window. https://www.fintechweekly.com/news/clarity-act-cloture-vote-fails-49-50-september-2026 - [2026-09-15] Midterms are in seven weeks. Senators were due to leave in early October and return only after the election. The bill is stranded on the calendar with no scheduled path forward. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/15/senate-cloture-vote-on-clarity-act-fails-dealing-regulatory-setback-to-crypto-industry.html - [2026-10-13] Polymarket prices "CLARITY signed into law in 2026" at about 6%, down from 30% on Sep 14 and 82% in February. The next Senate floor window is after it reconvenes on Nov 9. https://cryptoslate.com/predictions/market/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026/ - [2026-09-14] Before the vote, Kalshi's "becomes law by Jan 1 2027" market was about 37%, down from 90% in February. Kalshi's longer-dated strikes (by Oct 1 2027) were about 53%. These are pre-failure figures and stale. https://dailycoin.com/clarity-act-vote-polymarket-kalshi-odds/ - [Reference class] The bill has repeatedly missed announced deadlines. Banking Committee markup slipped from Jan 14, 2026 to May 14, when it passed 15–9. https://www.banking.senate.gov/newsroom/majority/scott-statement-on-market-structure-markup - [Reference class, 2026-05-15] Banking reported the bill on June 1 (Calendar No. 423). Thune filed cloture on Aug 8, and the Sep 15 vote failed. The 60-vote threshold has proven binding. https://www.finextra.com/blogposting/33035/is-the-us-clarity-act-dead-no - [2026-09-06] Lummis said that if the bill fails this Congress, the next realistic window is 2030. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/clarity-act-news-senate-vote-113320791.html - [2025-07-17] The House passed the bill 294–134. https://www.lw.com/en/us-crypto-policy-tracker/legislative-developments - [Lee's disposition] Standwithcrypto rates Lee "strongly supports crypto" and lists him as voting for GENIUS cloture (May 20, 2025) and final passage (June 12, 2025). He co-sponsored the Keep Your Coins Act. https://www.standwithcrypto.org/politicians/person/mike---lee - [Lee's disposition] I found no public statement from Lee on the Senate CLARITY text. I could not confirm how he voted on Sep 15 or whether he was among the "handful of Republicans" reported opposing. That is his only direct signal on this bill. https://www.finextra.com/blogposting/33035/is-the-us-clarity-act-dead-no - [Reference class] GENIUS (stablecoins) passed the Senate on its second cloture attempt and then final passage. Market structure has now failed its first cloture attempt. Lee, as a Republican libertarian-leaning crypto supporter, would most likely vote yes on a final vote if one occurred. The binding constraint is whether a final vote happens before Jan 1, 2027. https://www.standwithcrypto.org/politicians/person/mike---lee BOTTOM LINE: Lee's own vote is probably not the obstacle, since he is pro-crypto and backed GENIUS. The question is almost entirely whether the bill reaches a final Senate vote by Dec 31, 2026. After the failed cloture, the midterm recess and Democratic ethics objections, that looks unlikely. Polymarket's roughly 6% for enactment this year is a rough ceiling on that path. NOT FOUND: Lee's Sep 15 vote and any Lee statement on the bill. The roll-call list of Republican defectors. Any scheduled lame-duck floor date. The KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE rules text itself.

YES means: Mike Lee casts a "yea" vote in the full Senate on the first final-passage vote on a crypto market structure bill (CLARITY Act / H.R. 3633 or a successor) before 2027-01-01. Cloture and motion-to-proceed votes don't count. - [2026-09-21] Lee's vote on the Sept 15 motion-to-proceed cloture can be inferred from the roll call. BitGo, citing the Senate floor log, says 49 Republicans voted yes. The four Republican "no" votes were Collins, Hawley, Moran and Tillis, and Tillis's was procedural. Of 53 Republicans, 49 + 4 = 53, so Lee was a yes on the bill's only floor test. Rand Paul also voted yes. The Lee-is-a-yes risk is therefore small. https://www.bitgo.com/resources/blog/clarity-act/ - [2026-09-15] Cryptopolitan gives the same Republican breakdown: every yes was Republican, and the four named Republicans were the only GOP "no" votes. It records the vote as Roll Call 234. https://www.cryptopolitan.com/clarity-act-cloture-fails-49-50/ - [2026-09-21] BitGo calculates that the seven Democratic negotiators plus Gillibrand would have brought the count to 57 even if all had voted yes. That is below 60 unless Collins, Moran, Tillis or Hawley also flip. The YES path needs both groups to move, so the ethics deal is the key variable. https://www.bitgo.com/resources/blog/clarity-act/ - [2026-09-23 to 2026-09-30] The procedural vehicle exists. Tillis's motion to reconsider is pending, and the majority leader can move it if an ethics agreement appears. The bill stays on the calendar. This shortens the path to a second cloture vote, and then to a final-passage vote, without a new committee process. https://www.bit.com/knowledge-hub/clarity-act-senate-vote - [2026-09-17ish] Seven Democratic negotiators, including Gallego, Gillibrand and Warner, called the failure "a setback, but not the end" and recommitted to a bipartisan deal (FinTech Weekly, dated to two days after the vote). Gallego said he would not support legislation that enables Trump's crypto profits. That is a specific, bounded demand, and it could be met by new ethics text. https://www.fintechweekly.com/news/clarity-act-cloture-vote-fails-49-50-september-2026 - [2026-09-14] Trump had already conceded on ethics before the vote. He agreed to restrictions on officials issuing digital assets and to more state attorney general powers. Democrats' counteroffer of Sept 14 was rejected, so the gap is narrow in scope but unresolved. Further White House concessions after the midterms are the plausible YES trigger. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/watch-live-senate-expected-to-vote-on-cryptocurrency-regulation - [2026-09-18ish] Adrian Wall of the Digital Sovereignty Alliance said senators from both parties are weighing another push in the lame-duck session. He called it a complicated long shot. https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/senate-setback-leaves-clarity-act-111615314.html - [2026-10-02] Orrick's law-firm analysis says passage this Congress is now "widely viewed as unlikely". It confirms the failed-cloture facts. The same source says the CFTC is already building an interim regime, which lowers industry urgency. This is a headwind, not support for YES. https://www.orrick.com/en/Insights/2026/10/The-CLARITY-Act-Stalls-in-the-Senate-Whats-Next-for-Digital-Asset-Regulation - [2026-10-09 to 2026-10-16] Crypto.news says that calling a lame-duck return "certain" would outrun the evidence. It adds that reconsideration would matter only if sponsors announce changed language or a bloc of senators commits publicly. Neither has been reported as of this date. https://crypto.news/the-clarity-act-stalled-cryptos-election-money-faces-a-senate-test/ - [2026-09-18ish] Prediction markets still price a nonzero chance. After the failed vote, Kalshi's "passes before Jan 1 2027" market was cited at about 8% (DeFiRate pegs it at 8.3–8.9% bid/ask). This is the market's own estimate of the YES route, and it is a stale snapshot. https://defirate.com/clarity-act-fact-sheet/ BOTTOM LINE: The single path to YES is a lame-duck deal between Gallego, Gillibrand and the White House on ethics language. Thune would then move Tillis's pending reconsideration, cloture would clear at 60 or more, and a final-passage vote would be held before Dec 31. Lee is almost certainly a yes (he was one of the 49 Republicans on Sept 15), so the only open prerequisite is that a final vote happens at all. No such vote has been scheduled. NOT FOUND: Any Lee statement on the Senate CLARITY text. A direct roll-call page for Roll Call 234 (the Lee inference comes from secondary tallies). Any announced lame-duck floor date or revised ethics text after Sept 15. The KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE rules text.

YES means: Mike Lee casts a vote for a crypto market structure bill in a final Senate vote (not a motion to proceed or a cloture vote) before 2027-01-01. - [2026-09-15] Lee voted Yea on the cloture vote on the motion to proceed (roll call 234). The Senate roll call page confirms it. That means Lee is not the obstacle. It also means he has no qualifying vote yet, because the rules exclude cloture and motion-to-proceed votes. The tally was 49–50 with Coons absent. Even with every Republican present, the Republican side shows only 49 yeas, because Hawley, Moran, Collins and Tillis voted Nay. Every Democrat voted Nay, including Gallego, Alsobrooks and Gillibrand. https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_votes/vote1192/vote_119_2_00234.htm - [2026-09-15] The Democratic bloc held after Trump's late concessions (state AG enforcement powers and limits on officials issuing meme coins). Democrats wanted a divestment requirement and stronger enforcement. They sent a counteroffer the night before, and no deal was struck. Both sides were still bargaining on the eve of the vote. That shows the dispute was substantive, not a scheduling problem. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/watch-live-senate-expected-to-vote-on-cryptocurrency-regulation - [2026-09-15] The same AP piece notes the Senate would be out of session in October, and that the dynamics could change if Democrats win a chamber in November. Democrats now have an incentive to wait for the midterms rather than concede on ethics. Gallego said he would not support any bill that enables Trump's crypto profits. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/watch-live-senate-expected-to-vote-on-cryptocurrency-regulation - [2026-09-15] The only action on the bill after the failed vote was Tillis's motion to reconsider, entered the same day (Congress.gov action via LegiScan). Nothing later is logged. The bill is not on a cloture track. Reviving it would take a new motion, a new cloture filing and a new roll call, and then a second 60-vote cloture on the bill itself before any final vote. https://legiscan.com/US/bill/HB3633/2025 - [2026-10-?? (about 30 days after Sep 15)] A vote-tracker page still shows only one recorded Senate roll call on H.R. 3633, the failed cloture vote. It records no final-passage vote. The page's date is unclear. https://congressvotetracker.org/bills/house-bill-3633.html - [2026-09-20] Spendnode, a lower-quality crypto site, writes that the failure ended the push "for the year". It cites compressed floor time and little appetite to restart a failed negotiation. This is an opinion piece, but it matches the AP schedule point. https://www.spendnode.io/blog/us-crypto-market-structure-bill-collapses-months-negotiations-september-2026/ - [2026-09-16] bit.com's explainer says comprehensive market structure legislation is "unlikely before 2027". It also cites Galaxy Research at near 10% for law in 2026. That 10% is for enactment, a stricter bar than a Senate vote. https://www.bit.com/knowledge-hub/clarity-act - [2026-09 context] Time arithmetic: the Senate returns around Nov 9, after the election. A bill that needs new cloture on the motion to proceed (60 votes), possible amendment votes, cloture on the bill (60) and then passage would take many session days. Thune has needed over a month of notice to schedule even one cloture vote (filed Aug 8, vote Sept 15). Lame-duck floor time will also compete with appropriations, and the Aug 6 CoinDesk report says a continuing resolution runs only through the election. https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/08/06/senate-won-t-vote-on-crypto-clarity-act-before-its-summer-break - [2025–2026 resolution technicality] Because the Senate text is a substitute for House bill H.R. 3633, the contract's "crypto market structure bill" as defined by KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE would most likely count only a Senate vote on this bill or an equivalent. I could not read the rules text. A Lee vote on any other crypto bill (an appropriations rider, a CBDC bill) is unlikely to qualify. - [2026-09-15] Counter-risk, stated for completeness: Lee has voted Yea on every step. If a final vote did occur, he would almost certainly vote yes. So the No case rests wholly on there being no final vote by Dec 31. A final Senate vote would still need seven or more Democrats, who all voted no on Sept 15. https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_votes/vote1192/vote_119_2_00234.htm BOTTOM LINE: Lee's vote is not in doubt, but a qualifying final-passage vote requires first winning two 60-vote cloture votes. The Democratic bloc, including the crypto-friendly Gallego and Alsobrooks, held 0 of 47 defections on Sept 15, and the Senate is out until about Nov 9. Status quo inertia (no scheduled action, a stalled ethics dispute, and Democrats gaining leverage if they win in November) favors No. NOT FOUND: Any scheduled Senate floor action on H.R. 3633 for November or December. Any Lee statement on the bill. The KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE rules text. An exact date for the congressvotetracker page.