Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?

**Framing.** The Fed has already hiked once in 2026, in September. Under the rules ("exact amount of hikes"), the "1 hike" outcome therefore means no further hike at the Oct 28 or Dec 9 meetings and no emergency hike before year-end. A second 25 bp hike would resolve this contract No early. - [2026-09-16] The FOMC voted 12–0 to raise the target range by 25 bp to 3¾–4%. IORB is 3.90% and the primary credit rate is 4.0%, both effective 9/17. This is the only 2026 hike so far. <https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm> - [2026-09-16] Earlier 2026 meetings (Jan, Mar, Apr, Jun, Jul) were all holds at 3.50–3.75%. <https://www.cmelitegroup.com/knowledge-hub/fomc-meeting-fed-decision-day/> - [2026-09-16] The dot plot: 16 of 18 participants expect another hike this year, and 4 of those see two more. The median year-end rate is 4.1%. Chair Warsh submitted no dot. The dots imply 2026 total hikes of at least 2. <https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html> - [2026-10-07] The September minutes said most participants see another increase as likely appropriate by year-end, but gave no timing. The next decisions are Oct 28 and Dec 9. <https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/07/fed-officials-see-another-hike-coming-but-no-sign-as-to-when-minutes-show.html> - [2026-10-02] A weak September jobs report cut October hike odds to about 17% (CME FedWatch). December odds were above 75%. <https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/02/fed-rate-hike-odds-decline-after-september-jobs-report.html> - [2026-10-~12] NY Fed's Williams said "no need for urgency," but that one more hike might be appropriate "late this year." <https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-still-track-hike-interest-074804267.html> - [2026-10-14] September CPI rose 0.6% m/m and 3.7% y/y, up from 3.4% in August. Gasoline rose 9.1%. October hike odds jumped, with FedWatch at 35% (up from 22%) in one report and near 50% in another. <https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-interest-rate-hike-seems-195052044.html> - [2026-10-15] September PPI rose 1.3% m/m, the largest monthly gain since March 2022. The Beige Book cited fuel-price complaints. Fed officials who spoke after CPI said inflation is still too high. <https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-officials-troubled-hot-inflation-214237569.html> - [2026-10-15] Reuters factbox: JPMorgan, Nomura, HSBC, Barclays, Macquarie, Standard Chartered and Citi all forecast the next hike in December. CME FedWatch priced about 27% for October and 89.5% for December. <https://www.freedom969.com/business/factbox-major-brokerages-expect-next-fed-rate-hike-in-december> - [2026-10-15/16] CME odds for a December hike vary by report. One shows 67.4% (up from 62.2%). Forbes on 10/14 showed about 63% for December and about 66% hold for October. These are not the same time stamp as the 89.5% figure above, so December pricing is roughly 63–90% depending on source and time. <https://www.kucoin.com/news/flash/bitcoin-ethereum-and-xrp-rise-as-december-rate-hike-odds-hit-67-4> - [2026-10-15] UBS Global Wealth Management expects two more hikes: December and March 2027. <https://finimize.com/content/ubs-thinks-the-feds-next-hike-might-not-be-the-last> - [Scheduled] Remaining 2026 FOMC meetings: Oct 27–28 (no SEP) and Dec 8–9 (SEP). The blackout starts Oct 17. The meeting falls about a week before the Nov midterms, which some analysts say argues for a hold. <https://www.cmelitegroup.com/knowledge-hub/fomc-meeting-fed-decision-day/> BOTTOM LINE: With one hike done, "exactly 1" requires the Fed to hold at both remaining meetings. Officials' projections, the minutes, hot September CPI/PPI and market pricing (about 63–90% for a December hike, plus 27–50% for October) all point toward a second hike, so the current state leans against this outcome. A hold is still possible if data soften, as the weak jobs report briefly showed. NOT FOUND: The fomccalendars page and openmarket page did not show the current rate table. The openmarket fetch returned only general text, so the Sept 16 statement and the Fed's own press release are the primary confirmation. I found no emergency-meeting signals. I did not find a consistent timestamped FedWatch reading for 10/16.

- [2026-09-16] The FOMC voted 12-0 to raise the target range 25 bp, to 3.75–4.00%. This was the first hike since July 2023 and is hike #1 of 2026. It means "exactly 1 hike" requires no further hike at the Oct 28 or Dec 9 meetings and no emergency hike. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20260916a1.pdf - [2026-09-16] In the September SEP, the median year-end 2026 rate was 4.1%, which implies one more 25 bp hike. Sixteen of 18 participants expected at least one more hike, and four expected two more. https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/portfolio-insights/fixed-income/fixed-income-perspectives/fomc-statement-september-2026/ - [2026-10-07] The September minutes said most participants saw another increase as likely appropriate by year end. They also said each meeting would be decided on incoming data. CNBC reported that the minutes gave no timing. The next meetings are Oct 28 and Dec 9. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/07/fed-officials-see-another-hike-coming-but-no-sign-as-to-when-minutes-show.html - [2026-10-16] The Polymarket "How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?" event (this market's family) showed these prices on the fetched page, updated about Oct 15. The 2026 count includes the September hike. - 2 hikes: 68% - 1 hike: 22% - 3 hikes: 12.1% - 4 hikes: under 1% The strike prices sum to more than 100%. Treat the figure as a snapshot of an illiquid ladder: the 1-hike strike has about $462k of volume. https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-fed-rate-hikes-in-2026-20260623190717369 - [2026-10-14] September CPI was 3.7% y/y against 3.6% expected, up from 3.4% in August. CME FedWatch odds of an October hike rose from 22% to as high as about 50%, then faded to about 32–35% the same day. December was priced near 90% in one FXStreet snapshot. https://financefeeds.com/will-the-fed-hike-on-28-october-what-the-odds-did-after-a-3-7-cpi/ - [2026-10-14] Forbes, citing CME, put the October hold probability at about 66%. It put the December 25 bp hike probability at about 63%. This is a different snapshot from the FXStreet one above, so the December figure ranges 63–90% depending on source and time. https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2026/10/14/fed-66-likely-to-hold-rates-steady-following-high-inflation-data/ - [2026-10-02] The September payrolls gain was only 29k. CME odds of an October hike fell to 17%, and Kalshi's October hike odds fell to 18% from nearly 70% a week earlier. Pricing for this event has been volatile over a week. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/02/fed-rate-hike-odds-decline-after-september-jobs-report.html - [2026-10-14] Most analysts expected a hold in October, partly because the meeting falls a week before the midterm elections. UBS called an election-eve hike "politically untenable". Williams and Jefferson said there is "no need for urgency". Williams also said one further upward adjustment might be appropriate late this year. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-interest-rate-hike-seems-195052044.html and https://en.sedaily.com/international/2026/10/16/us-rate-path-clouded-as-markets-await-warshs-oct-16-remarks - [2026-10-12] J.P. Morgan Wealth Management's base case is a hold in October, with another 50 bp of hikes before the cycle ends. It said the timing could be October, December or 2027. Separately, one source said BofA forecast two hikes in 2026 (tech-insider, secondary source). https://www.chase.com/personal/investments/learning-and-insights/article/will-the-federal-reserve-hike-rates-at-october-2026-fomc-meeting - [2026-10-16] Sibling Polymarket market "Another Fed rate hike in 2026?" (any hike after Sept 17) was about 78% about a week ago and 81–84% in late September. It needs at least one more hike, so the 1-hike outcome here corresponds to the complement, about 16–22%. https://polymarket.com/event/another-fed-rate-hike-in-2026?outcomeIndex=1 - [Base rate] Historically the Fed seldom reverses within a year, and it has rarely hiked fewer than twice after a first hike in a cycle that had a majority signalling more. In this cycle the first hike came with the Committee projecting another, so the reference class leans toward more tightening. Exceptions are 1-and-done episodes such as the 2018–19 pause and the Dec 2015 hike followed by a long wait. This is general knowledge, not from fetched sources. Other 2026 context: Warsh became chair in May, and inflation is driven by energy and Iran war effects. A weak jobs report and the election timing are the main arguments for a hold. - [2026-06-23] When this market opened, Polymarket had "1 hike" as the leading outcome at 47% and "0 hikes" at 41%. The distribution then shifted toward 2 hikes after the September hike, which shows how quickly the pricing has moved. https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-fed-rate-hikes-in-2026-20260623190717369 BOTTOM LINE: The September hike already counts as hike #1, so this market resolves YES only if the Fed holds in both October and December and makes no emergency move. Futures and the SEP point to one more 25 bp hike, mostly in December (CME December hike odds ~63–90%), so the outside view favours "2 hikes" over "1 hike". The 1-hike outcome remains plausible given weak payrolls, the election timing and the Fed's "no urgency" language. NOT FOUND: A track record for Polymarket Fed-hike markets, and a reliable historical count of cycles where the Fed stopped after one hike following a dot-plot signal of another. I also did not find any CME FedWatch figure dated after Oct 15.

YES means: the Fed's only 2026 rate hike is the September 16 hike. That requires holds at the Oct 28 and Dec 9 meetings and no emergency hike before year-end. - [2026-10-16] Warsh spoke in Bangkok, the last public remarks before the Oct 17 blackout. He gave no hint of an October hike. The FT-reported implied probability of an October increase fell from about 27% to 15% afterward. This is newer than the 27–50% readings in the earlier reports. Warsh also said he doesn't prejudge meetings and won't say now what he might do at the meetings left this year. That keeps a December hold open, because no commitment was made. https://cryptopotato.com/fed-chair-warshs-bangkok-speech-4-key-takeaways-and-what-they-mean-for-bitcoin - [2026-10-16] Warsh said AI is boosting demand now but should become a positive supply shock over the medium term through productivity. That is a "look-through" framing, which supports patience. https://cryptopotato.com/fed-chair-warshs-bangkok-speech-4-key-takeaways-and-what-they-mean-for-bitcoin - [2026-10-14] Core CPI is milder than the headline. Core CPI rose 0.3% m/m, the same pace as August. Core was 2.6% y/y, against a 2.5% forecast. The 3.7% headline is driven by energy: the gasoline index rose 9.1%. Supply shocks of this type are generally considered temporary, and policymakers often look through them. If oil falls, the inflation case for a second hike weakens. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/article/hotter-than-expected-inflation-report-puts-prospect-of-october-rate-hike-back-in-play-130540924.html - [2026-10-14] PBS: much of the inflation comes from supply shocks, such as the Iran war's disruption to oil and gas, which higher rates can't fix. Warsh's stated aim is to keep the gas price spike from seeping into more areas of the economy. That is a containment goal. It could be met by September's hike plus a pause. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/inflation-worsened-last-month-to-3-7-as-midterm-elections-near - [2026-10-14] Another view: PPHC's Martin Beck said weaker jobs data and fragile consumer sentiment mean the Fed still has room to hold in October. Policymakers are also weighing the risk of tightening too fast and slowing the labor market. https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2026/10/14/fed-rate-hike-seen-more-likely-after-inflation-data (fetched only as a search snippet) - [2026-10-02, fetched] The labor data behind a December hold. Benzinga's detail on the September jobs report: payrolls rose 29k against 90k expected. The report also showed unemployment up to 4.2% from 4.1%, wage growth of 0.1% m/m (3.0% y/y), and July revised to a 10k loss. The October and November jobs reports (due before Dec 9) could repeat this. Truflation's Oliver Rust said core PCE undershot and a further hike was hard to justify. https://www.benzinga.com/markets/prediction-markets/26/10/62137258/fed-rate-hike-odds-jobs-report - [2026-10-02] Polymarket's own December-hike contract was about 68% at that date, per Benzinga. That is one venue's read, not near-certainty. Even the 63–90% December range in earlier reports leaves a large hold share. https://www.benzinga.com/markets/prediction-markets/26/10/62137258/fed-rate-hike-odds-jobs-report - [2026-10-14] A market that is pricing a hike with confidence can still be wrong. Futures priced a December hike at 57% for a quarter-point and about 37% for a half-point . The text calls December "virtually certain", but the combined number is a mix of sizes, and the quarter-point share is only 57%. Another reading had a roughly 59% chance of an October hold . Readings of the same event differ by source, which shows how unsettled pricing is. https://thenationaldesk.com/news/nation-world/inflation-surges-as-iran-war-drives-prices-higher-across-economy-energy-shock-oil-gasoline-federal-reserve-rates-wages-consumer-spending - [2026-09-02 / 2026-09-16] Oil and Iran headlines have driven the hawkish swings. Brent was about $94.5 on Sept 2 after renewed strikes. Bessent called the spike a temporary supply shock . Prices have swung with ceasefire news. A durable ceasefire before December would remove the stated rationale for a second hike. CBS on Sept 16 noted it's still possible the Iran war could conclude quickly, easing energy prices and bypassing additional hikes. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fed-rate-hike-interest-rates-impact/ - [2026-07-27] Precedent for this Fed holding despite market pricing. In July, CME had a 68.5% hold probability and the Fed held. Bank of America wrote then that raising rates would go against Warsh's framework of looking through supply shocks. BofA had expected hikes in September, October and December; the Fed has so far delivered only one. https://fortune.com/2026/07/27/iran-oil-prices-fed-meeting-inflation-interest-rates-wall-street/ - [2026-10-14] Political and timing factor. Policymakers have said they don't need to rush another hike, though most still expect one this year. The Oct 28 meeting is a week before the midterms. The weak-jobs and election-timing arguments work together toward an October hold. The YES path then depends on December also being a hold. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/14/cpi-inflation-report-september-2026.html (search snippet only; fetch failed) - [Most likely YES path] The Fed holds on Oct 28, then holds on Dec 9. That needs the following prerequisites. First, Oct and Nov payrolls stay weak, with unemployment at or above 4.2%. Second, core inflation stays at or below about 0.3% m/m and the energy spike fades, so the Fed can look through headline CPI. Third, the December SEP/dots are cut back, or Warsh keeps leaning on "no forward guidance" and "data-dependent". Fourth, no emergency action occurs. Analysts have conceded the timing is uncertain: October, December or 2027. https://www.chase.com/personal/investments/learning-and-insights/article/will-the-federal-reserve-hike-rates-at-october-2026-fomc-meeting BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES case is a two-meeting pause. It rests on weak payrolls, core inflation that is milder than the headline, an energy-driven shock the Fed might look through, Warsh's refusal to commit, and the pre-midterm timing. It is a minority path against the dots, the minutes and December futures, and it fails if either remaining meeting brings a hike. NOT FOUND: A CME FedWatch reading dated after Warsh's Oct 16 remarks, apart from the FT-cited 15% October figure. Any FOMC member explicitly arguing for stopping after one hike. Oil price levels for mid-October. The CNBC pages for the CPI report and the Warsh speech could not be fetched, so those points come from search snippets.

YES means: the Fed's 2026 hike total is exactly 1, i.e. only the Sept 16 hike. That requires holds on Oct 28 and Dec 9 and no emergency hike. - [2026-10-16] Warsh said in Bangkok that he does not "prejudge" the October or December meetings. Reuters called a hold what "markets expect" (fetched investing.com page; only the headline and lede were readable). Bloomberg's live blog said he "said nothing to dispel" hold expectations. October hike odds fell to about 17% from about 30% while he spoke. This is the newest data point and cuts against the Oct 14 CPI spike. https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/feds-warsh-gives-no-hint-on-october-policy-decision-4953046 - [2026-10-16, 01:24 ET] Fetched Kalshi/Polymarket aggregate: an Oct 28 hike is about 15% and a hold about 85%. Kalshi shows December at 81% hike and 19% hold (the aggregator's headline figure is 78%). The Kalshi/Polymarket "another hike in 2026" contract is about 83%. A "1 hike" outcome therefore needs a hold at both meetings. On Kalshi's December price the 19% hold share is the ceiling. The October-hold probability multiplies on top of that, assuming the meetings are roughly independent. That is only an assumption, and a December hold would probably follow a soft October data run. https://defirate.com/odds/fed-decision/ - [2026-10-16] Goldman Sachs reads recent Fed remarks as pointing to an October skip, which leaves a hike in December. Skipping October is not the NO-side path here. A hold in both months needs a data break, not just a delay. https://en.bloomingbit.io/feed/news/122333 - [2026-10-08] Waller said hikes "do not need to come at consecutive meetings" and called the labor market "solid and stable". Waller said on Oct 13–14 that higher long-term Treasury yields are already restraining demand (housing, autos) and may reduce the need for another hike. The 10-year yield is about 5.08%. This is the main internal mechanism for "one and done": the market tightens for the Fed. https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/fed-rate-decision-october-2026 and https://axios.com/2026/10/14/inflation-warning-sign-cpi - [2026-10-12] Hammack, a hawk and an FOMC voter, says policy needs to be tighter. She nonetheless goes into Oct 27–28 with an "open mind" on timing. She also conceded that a few hikes will do little against underlying inflation drivers. Even hawks are explicitly flexible on timing. https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2026-10-12/feds-hammack-hope-to-cool-demand-and-inflation-without-job-market-pain - [2026-10-16] Warsh opposes forward guidance, and he submitted no September dot. His own position is therefore unknown. He said AI would ease inflation expectations and "fundamentally change" policy conduct, and DBS read that as reassurance against consecutive hikes. Warsh is the swing figure for a December hold. His Sept 16 press conference was hawkish, which cuts the other way. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/16/feds-warsh-says-ai-development-path-will-be-very-bumpy-.html (search snippet; the fetch failed) and https://www.kucoin.com/news/flash/federal-reserve-s-kashkari-avoids-predicting-rate-decisions-october-hike-odds-drop-to-17 - [2026-10-16] Resolution technicality: the contract counts only hikes of 1–24 bp or more, summed across 2026 (a 50 bp move counts as 2). It resolves No early if a second hike occurs. So even an October hike ends the YES path immediately, and the contract is effectively a "no further hike by Dec 31" bet. The Fed's next meetings are Oct 28 and Dec 9, with no other scheduled meetings. There are very few remaining paths for a hold, and none involve a gradual drift. https://defirate.com/odds/fed-decision/ - [2026-10-14] The September CPI report's core rise was only 0.33% m/m, and headline gasoline drove most of the 0.6%. Core CPI y/y is about 2.6%, against 3.7% headline. Hammack also put underlying inflation in a "2.5%–3.0%" range. NO-side logic: if oil (WTI above $100, down from a $113 April peak) eases, the headline overshoot reverses and the "supply shock" view prevails. That view says a hold is justified (the CNN/Oxford Economics argument, Sept 17). https://www.kucoin.com/news/flash/federal-reserve-s-kashkari-avoids-predicting-rate-decisions-october-hike-odds-drop-to-17 and https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/federal-reserve-tapering-asset-purchases.html and https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/17/economy/fed-bullied-into-hiking-rates-analysis - [2026-10-02] Reversal precedent within this cycle: Kalshi's October hike odds fell from nearly 70% to 18% within a week after the 29k payrolls print. The next jobs report (Nov 6, after the Oct meeting) and the Dec 4 report could repeat that. Another soft print plus the election-eve optics could push the December hike off. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/02/fed-rate-hike-odds-decline-after-september-jobs-report.html - [2026-10-16] Next CPI is not until Nov 10, so only Fed commentary and oil prices matter before the Oct 28 decision. The December meeting will have the October CPI, the October and November jobs reports and the November CPI. That is far more data than October. A single hold in October gives no information about December, and the data is more likely to bring a hike than to rule one out. https://blockhead.co/2026/10/16/bitcoin-holds-near-82-000-as-fed-officials-cool-october-hike-bets - [2026-09-29/10-14] Williams said "one further upward adjustment" might be appropriate "late this year", and Axios adds he cautioned the Fed might not need to hike in 2027. The "might" and "if the economy follows my forecast" language is conditional, not a commitment. https://financefeeds.com/will-the-fed-hike-on-28-october-what-the-odds-did-after-a-3-7-cpi/ and https://axios.com/2026/10/14/cpi-september-inflation-trump - [2026-10-12] Context: Hammack said inflation in the "2.5%–3.0%" range has stayed lodged there. That is roughly 1 point below the 3.7% headline, and the gap suggests the headline is energy-driven. https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2026-10-12/feds-hammack-hope-to-cool-demand-and-inflation-without-job-market-pain BOTTOM LINE: The NO-side case for YES ("exactly 1 hike") is weak on pricing: it needs two holds, and Kalshi gives December only about 19% for a hold. Its best remaining routes are an oil or jobs reversal, the Fed relying on higher long-term yields, and Warsh's reluctance to commit. NOT FOUND: The CNBC Oct 16 page and the Reuters body text (fetches returned only chrome or failed). A CME FedWatch December figure timestamped after Warsh's Oct 16 remarks. A historical count of cycles in which the Fed stopped after one hike despite a majority of dots signalling more.