Will Grubhub App Downloads for October 2026 be above 115 ?

- I could not find the Carbon Arc Grubhub App Downloads index values for any month, including the finalized September 2026 value. I also could not find a published October 2026 value. - [2026-09 (Kalshi snapshot, undated)] The Kalshi App Downloads page showed the Grubhub September 2026 market with strikes "Above 122" and "Above 126". The snapshot showed roughly 44% and 33% implied. This is a sibling market and may be stale. The October strike of 115 is lower than both September strikes, which suggests the index was running at about 120 or higher. I did not retrieve the September settlement. https://kalshi.com/category/financials/app-downloads - [2026-10-16] My attempts to open the live Kalshi page returned 403 and 429 errors. The Coinbase mirror for the Instacart September market (strike above 124) loaded only page chrome with no data. https://www.coinbase.com/fr-ca/predictions/event/KXCARTAPP-26OCT08 - [2026-10-12] Grubhub's Android app shipped version 2026.41, following 2026.40 on Oct 6 and 2026.39 on Sep 29. It is on a weekly release cadence and still promotes no delivery or service fees on $50+ orders. APKPure lists about 68,000 downloads for that listing. https://apkpure.com/grubhub-food-delivery/com.grubhub.android - [2026-09-14] AppBrain estimated about 140 thousand Android downloads in the last 30 days and put the app in the top 100 food and drink apps. This is a rough third-party estimate with no year-ago comparison. https://www.appbrain.com/app/grubhub-food-delivery/com.grubhub.android - [2026-10-14] Sauce announced a direct-ordering and delivery partnership with Grubhub. This is a merchant-side deal and is unlikely to move consumer downloads. Grubhub is described as part of Wonder, with over 415,000 merchants in more than 4,000 US cities. https://stockhouse.com/news/press-releases/2026/10/14/sauce-partners-with-grubhub-on-direct-ordering-and-delivery - [2026-09-15] DoorDash agreed to buy Grubhub's Campus Dining unit for $300M and to invest $125M in Wonder. Closing is expected in early 2027. This does not affect the consumer app in October. https://www.restaurantdive.com/news/doordash-wonder-grubhub-college-campus-division-acquisition/830396/ - [2026-09-15] Restaurant Dive reports Wonder raised $650M earlier this summer, plans to invest in growing the Grubhub business, and is reportedly preparing for an IPO. https://www.restaurantdive.com/news/doordash-wonder-grubhub-college-campus-division-acquisition/830396/ - [2026-08-17] Wonder and Serve Robotics announced robot delivery on the Grubhub marketplace in Chicago, Los Angeles and Alexandria. This is a small operational change. https://about.wonder.com/news/details/2026/Wonder-Teams-Up-with-Serve-to-Bring-Autonomous-Delivery-to-the-Grubhub-Marketplace-2026-OCguQalMQY/default.aspx - [2026-02 (approx.)] Grubhub aired its first Super Bowl ad in February 2026 as part of a brand push under Wonder. I did not find follow-on campaign news for October. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/grubhub-debut-first-super-bowl-160000678.html - The index compares October 2026 downloads with October 2025. The base period was shortly before and after Wonder completed its Grubhub acquisition, which was dated 2025 per Wikipedia (the Restaurant Business article I fetched carries no 2026 dates). Wonder's heavy marketing spend since then is the likely driver of growth above 100. The Wikipedia entry confirms the 2025 purchase. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grubhub - Resolution timing: the finalized Carbon Arc value is recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on Nov 7, 2026. Trading closes Nov 8. BOTTOM LINE: The only quantitative anchor I found is the September strikes (122 and 126), which imply the index was well above 115 recently. Nothing found in the last 14 days suggests a break in trend. I found no October reading from Carbon Arc. NOT FOUND: Carbon Arc Grubhub index values (September or October 2026), the September settlement, the current October market strikes and the Carbon Arc dashboard. I also found no Sensor Tower or Appfigures year-over-year data for Grubhub.

- [2026-10-16] I found no published Carbon Arc Grubhub App Downloads index values, either history or the September 2026 print. I found no outside forecast for October 2026. The Kalshi category page returned HTTP 429 and the Coinbase mirror page showed no data. https://kalshi.com/category/financials/app-downloads - [2026-10-16] The index is year-over-year, with 100 meaning no change. This contract's strike is 115, meaning +15% YoY downloads. The rules say it resolves on the finalized value recorded at 11:59 pm ET on Nov 7. https://www.coinbase.com/fr-ca/predictions/event/KXCARTAPP-26OCT08 - [2026-09 snapshot] Kalshi runs a monthly Carbon Arc app-downloads series. A Grubhub "in September" market was listed, and a sibling Instacart September 2026 market used a strike of 124. This suggests strikes are set near expected values, so a strike of 115 for Grubhub would be at or near the market's central estimate. I could not confirm that. https://kalshi.com/category/financials/app-downloads - [2026-02] Sensor Tower data cited by TechCrunch: Grubhub's monthly active users fell 20% YoY in 2025, to 8 million. This is the structural decline in the base year. https://techcrunch.com/?p=3088729 - [2026-02] Grubhub ran a Super Bowl 2026 ad and dropped delivery and service fees on restaurant orders over $50. That is a push to reverse the decline, and it may lift downloads relative to a weak 2025 base. https://techcrunch.com/?p=3088729 - [2026-03-13] Wonder began putting Grubhub's merchant and promo inventory into its own platform. Some demand may therefore shift to the Wonder app, which could reduce Grubhub-branded downloads. https://moderndelivery.substack.com/p/wonder-just-showed-us-how-they-plan - [2026-01 to 2026-10] Reference class: Grubhub has been shrinking for years. North American orders at Just Eat Takeaway, including Grubhub, fell 26% over three years before the Wonder sale. Grubhub holds under 10% of the US delivery market. Historically it has been rare for its YoY app metrics to exceed +15%. https://www.restaurantbusinessonline.com/technology/6-thoughts-wonders-acquisition-grubhub - [2026-10-16] The Grubhub: Food Delivery Android app shipped a build roughly weekly through 2026, up to at least 2026.34 on Aug 27. That shows active development but says nothing about download volume. https://www.apkmirror.com/apk/grubhub/grubhub-food-delivery-takeout/grubhub-food-delivery-2026-30-release/ BOTTOM LINE: The outside view is weak and mostly qualitative. Grubhub's long-run trend is declining, with a 2025 base that was already down. Fee waivers and marketing could push YoY readings above 100, but I found no evidence for +15%. If the strike was set near the market's median, the outcome is close to a coin flip, and the Carbon Arc history would be the key missing input. NOT FOUND: Carbon Arc Grubhub index values for any month (including September 2026). Kalshi's Grubhub market strikes for other months. Resolution outcomes for past Grubhub app-downloads markets. Any Sensor Tower or Appfigures Grubhub download figures for Aug–Oct 2026.

YES means: the finalized Carbon Arc Grubhub App Downloads index for October 2026 (the YoY index, where 100 means no change) is above 115, i.e. downloads are more than 15% higher than in October 2025. - [2026-10-14] The Apple App Store listing shows Grubhub at Food & Drink chart #29. It carries 4.7M ratings and the same no-fees-on-$50+ headline. The fee waiver has run continuously since early 2026, so the same offer was live through Aug–Oct. The weekly builds listed (2026.20 on May 18 through 2026.41) show no pause in release cadence. This is a presence/promo signal, not a download count. https://apps.apple.com/us/app/grubhub-food-delivery/id302920553 - [2026-01-20] Grubhub CEO Migdal said growth accelerated in 2025 after years of stagnation, that it would accelerate more in 2026, and that Grubhub is investing more in the platform and customers. 2025 was the first full year under Wonder, and Grubhub added tens of thousands of restaurants, to over 400,000 operators. Management guidance points to growth, not decline. https://www.restaurantdive.com/news/wonder-grubhub-acquire-claim-restaurant-rewards/809886/ - [2026-01-20] The Claim cash-back rewards app was to be integrated into Grubhub over the "next few months", with a national rollout "later this year". Claim's weekly personalized offers to new customers (dine-in or pickup) are a new acquisition funnel that did not exist in the Oct 2025 base. Whether it has shipped by October is unconfirmed. https://www.restaurantdive.com/news/wonder-grubhub-acquire-claim-restaurant-rewards/809886/ - [2026-10-14] Retail promo aggregators list live October offers, including a 50% first-order code and a Prime-linked free Grubhub+ membership. The Prime-linked Grubhub+ and the new-diner promos are acquisition levers that raise installs. Couponcabin shows 11 verified offers as of Oct 14. These are third-party listings, not Grubhub statements. https://www.couponcabin.com/coupons/grubhub/ - [2026-09-14] AppBrain's Android estimate was about 4.8k downloads a day, with the app in the top 100 of Food & Drink. The Apple chart rank of #29 is higher than that. The base may be low because 2025 MAU fell by about a fifth (see the colleagues' Feb 2026 Sensor Tower item). A weak Oct 2025 base makes +15% easier. This is not a YoY figure. https://www.appbrain.com/app/grubhub-food-delivery/com.grubhub.android - [2026-10-16] Carbon Arc says its app-install data are normalized at entity level and that it publishes a similar series for its card-spend and web-traffic data. I found no Grubhub-specific series. This confirms the index exists as a product but gives no value. https://openbb.co/blog/carbon-arc-brings-card-spend-web-traffic-and-more-into-openbb/ - [Inference from the colleagues' Sept 2026 snapshot] The September strikes (122 and 126) sat above 115. If the September index was around 120 or higher, October only needs to hold roughly flat sequentially in YoY terms. This is the most direct quantitative path to YES, but I could not confirm September's actual print. Single most likely path to YES: the September index finalized at about 120–126, as the strikes imply. Wonder's continuing fee waiver and promos (which had no equivalent in Oct 2025) keep that gap into October. It needs no Wonder-app cannibalization and no unusually strong Oct 2025 base. BOTTOM LINE: The case for YES rests on management's stated growth push, continuous promotion since early 2026, a weak 2025 base, and the sibling September strikes being above 115. No direct Carbon Arc Grubhub value was found, so this is circumstantial. NOT FOUND: Any Carbon Arc Grubhub index value for any month, including the September 2026 settlement. Also not found: Sensor Tower or Appfigures YoY Grubhub downloads, confirmation that the Claim rollout shipped, and any October-specific Grubhub campaign.

YES means: the finalized Carbon Arc Grubhub App Downloads index for October 2026 (Grubhub downloads in October 2026 vs. October 2025, where 100 means no change) is above 115 when recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on Nov 7, 2026. - [2026-10-16] The iOS App Store lists Grubhub at Chart #27 in Food & Drink, and the Google Play listing shows only a "10M+" install band. Neither is a year-over-year figure. Grubhub's own chart rank is therefore no evidence of +15% growth. A reading of 115 or lower is consistent with a mid-chart app. https://apps.apple.com/us/app/grubhub-food-delivery/id302920553 - [2026-10-16] Both stores still lead with the same "no delivery or service fees on $50+ orders" pitch that the colleagues' Feb–Oct items cover. The app has no new October consumer hook, such as a new promo or a rebrand. Status quo means a similar download rate to September. October is also the month the Oct 2025 base is compared against, so any lift has to be new. https://apps.apple.com/us/app/grubhub-food-delivery/id302920553 - [2026-06-05] Wonder's growth push for Grubhub runs through integrations: Eater, Beli, Alexa+ and Bilt Rewards. Most of these route orders through other surfaces or through a Bilt credit worth up to $120 a year. They are not installs of the Grubhub app, so they may add orders without adding downloads. This is a mechanism for orders to rise while downloads do not. https://www.fastcasual.com/news/wonder-expands-grubhub-integrations-with-eater-beli-alexa-and-bilt/ - [2026-03-13] Grubhub's merchants and promos are now shown inside the Wonder app. Wonder, not Grubhub, is described as the consumer brand, with Grubhub as back-end infrastructure. If new users are steered to Wonder, Grubhub-branded installs are capped. https://moderndelivery.substack.com/p/wonder-just-showed-us-how-they-plan - [2026-09-15] The DoorDash deal moves Grubhub's Campus Dining unit (formerly Tapingo) to DoorDash, with closing expected in early 2027. Campus ordering lives inside the Grubhub app, so it is not yet separated from the October index. It is also a seasonal driver in fall. If Carbon Arc counts Campus-linked installs, the fall campus effect applies to the Oct 2025 base too. https://techcrunch.com/2026/09/15/wonder-scores-a-425-million-partnership-with-doordash-as-it-builds-its-food-empire/ - [2026-06 to 2026-10] A Sensor Tower State of Mobile 2026 summary says global app downloads grew only 0.8% in 2025, and the Sensor Tower blog reports that restaurant-ordering apps have only "rebounded" post-pandemic. The category tailwind is weak. A +15% YoY reading for a share-losing app would have to come from Grubhub-specific marketing. https://www.getpanto.ai/blog/mobile-app-usage-statistics - [2026-10-16] Resolution technicality: the contract needs the value "above 115" on the finalized record from Nov 7. A reading of exactly 115 resolves No. Index values appear to be whole numbers, so ties are plausible. A revision after the first print resolves on the Nov 7 value. The source has not been located, so I could not check how often Carbon Arc revises. https://github.com/Carbon-Arc - [2026-10-16] Carbon Arc is a data-exchange platform with a Python client (latest v1.1.14, Jun 11, 2026) that is sold by account. I found no public Grubhub download series, so there is no public evidence of past prints at or above 115. All of the "running above 120" inference rests on the September Kalshi strikes (122 and 126) in the colleagues' report, which is undated and unverified. https://github.com/Carbon-Arc/carbonarc - [2026-10-16] The October strike of 115 is lower than the September strikes of 122 and 126. A step down of 7 to 11 points in the threshold could mean the market expects the index to cool, because the Oct 2025 base is firmer or the Feb Super Bowl comparison is gone. That is an inference, not a reported fact. Mean reversion in a YoY index after a high month favors No at a lower strike only if the September print also came in below 122. https://github.com/Carbon-Arc BOTTOM LINE: The No case rests on three points: no October catalyst, the Wonder app taking Grubhub's discovery traffic, and a weak category with a +15% bar. The strict "above 115" wording also makes a tie at 115 a No. This is weakened by the colleagues' evidence that September strikes sat at 122–126. NOT FOUND: any published Carbon Arc Grubhub value, the September 2026 settlement, past Grubhub resolutions, the live October strike ladder, and any year-ago October 2025 download figure for Grubhub.