Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?

- [2026-10-12] Trump told reporters he "may" meet Kim Jong Un during his Asia trip: "That would be exciting… I get along with him." He gave no date or place. Neither Washington nor Pyongyang has announced a meeting. https://www.koreajoongangdaily.com/korea/trump-floats-kim-jongun-meeting-but-korean-envoy-sees-no-concrete-progress/12918460 - [2026-11-16 to 19, scheduled] Trump's planned itinerary is the ASEAN summit in Manila on Nov 16, then APEC in Shenzhen, China, on Nov 17–19. Leaders' meetings at APEC are Nov 18–19. Xi is expected to be there. This is the only scheduled opening before the market closes, and it falls after the US midterms. https://www.koreajoongangdaily.com/korea/trump-floats-kim-jongun-meeting-but-korean-envoy-sees-no-concrete-progress/12918460 - [2026-10-16] A Lowy Institute piece says that as of mid-October Pyongyang continues to ignore US overtures. It also says Kim is unlikely to meet unless denuclearisation is taken off the table. https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/the-last-chance-for-a-trump-kim-summit - [2026-10-13] North Korea fired multiple ballistic missiles on Oct 12, its fourth launch in about a month. Kim opened a Defence Revolution Museum on Oct 11 that displays the Hwasong-20 ICBM. https://www.technology.org/2026/10/13/kim-jong-un-defence-museum-hwasong-20-trump-meeting/ - [2026-10-13] South Korea's ambassador to the US, Kang Kyung-wha, saw no concrete progress toward a summit. Kim has repeatedly said he will not discuss denuclearisation. The State Department still lists denuclearisation as a goal. The White House has offered talks without preconditions. A DMZ landmine blast on Sept 21 injured three South Korean soldiers. https://www.koreajoongangdaily.com/korea/trump-floats-kim-jongun-meeting-but-korean-envoy-sees-no-concrete-progress/12918460 - [2026-10-03 and 09-29] Trump keeps praising Kim in public. On Sept 29 he said "As long as I am around, he's going to be fine". On Oct 3 he said at an Ohio rally that he "gets along great" with Kim. Also in early October he appeared with Dennis Rodman, who has travelled to North Korea several times. https://www.koreajoongangdaily.com/korea/trump-floats-kim-jongun-meeting-but-korean-envoy-sees-no-concrete-progress/12918460 - [2026-08-19] Kim Yo Jong said she was "completely unaware" of any leader-level communication. This came after Trump claimed on Aug 17 that Kim had responded "very positively" to his proposal for talks. Trump said on Aug 19 that he planned to meet Kim. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/19/north-korea-leaders-sister-denies-talks-with-hostile-us - [2026-08-16/18] Trump ordered a reduction in US-South Korea joint drills, citing his relationship with Kim. The WSJ reported on Aug 18, citing US officials, that Trump pressed aides to arrange a meeting this autumn, with APEC floated as a venue. No formal preparations were underway at that point, and a White House official said only that they would meet "at an appropriate time". https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2026/10/14/north-korea-donald-trump-kim-jong-un-apec/3021791953435/ - [2026-08] Trump said in August he expected to meet Kim in 2026 ("Yeah, I will be"). https://www.thehansindia.com/news/international/trump-says-he-may-meet-kim-jong-un-on-asia-trip-1131936 - [2026-10-16] No Trump–Kim in-person meeting has occurred in 2026. Their last meeting was June 30, 2019, at the DMZ. https://townhall.com/news/cameron-arcand/2026/10/13/could-trump-meet-with-kim-jong-un-again-soon-n2684608 - [2025-09-21] Kim's stated position is that there is "no reason" not to sit down with the US if Washington drops its denuclearisation demand. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/9/22/north-koreas-kim-says-open-to-us-talks-if-denuclearisation-demands-dropped - [2026-10-16] Context: US-South Korea ties are strained, over the Iran war and over trade and security issues. Trump is also campaigning for the midterms. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/trump-floats-potential-meeting-kim-223256805.html BOTTOM LINE: Only Trump has signalled a meeting. Pyongyang has not agreed, no venue or date exists, and the only identified window is the Nov 16–19 Asia trip, with Shenzhen/APEC floated as the venue. A Kim appearance in Shenzhen is not confirmed, and a DMZ or other ad hoc meeting is not scheduled. Any meeting would need a very fast arrangement, as in 2019. NOT FOUND: Any official announcement from the White House, KCNA or Beijing of a Trump–Kim meeting. Any report that Kim is attending APEC. Any report of a DMZ visit in Trump's itinerary. Any Kim Jong Un or Kim Yo Jong reaction to Trump's Oct 12 remarks.

- [2026-10-12] Trump said "I may" when asked if he would meet Kim on his November Asia trip. The trip includes ASEAN in Manila on Nov 16 and APEC in Shenzhen on Nov 17-19. UPI and Yonhap both say no meeting has been publicly scheduled. Trump gave no date or venue. https://koreatimes.co.kr/foreignaffairs/northkorea/20261013/trump-says-he-may-meet-n-korean-leader-kim-during-upcoming-asia-trip - [2026-10-14] North Korea has fired ballistic missiles four times in about a month. Kim opened a defense museum displaying an ICBM. UPI says analysts see obstacles to nuclear talks. https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2026/10/14/north-korea-donald-trump-kim-jong-un-apec/3021791953435/ - [2026-08-19] Trump said he will meet Kim "this year". The WSJ reported on Aug 18 that he pressed aides to arrange a fall meeting, with APEC in Shenzhen floated as a venue. A White House official said there was no date and no formal planning. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/live-blog/trump-alaska-primary-florida-election-2026-congress-iran-live-updates-rcna593214 - [2026-08-19] Kim Yo Jong said she was "completely unaware" of any Trump-Kim communication. She said the leaders' relationship "remains excellent" but that US hostile policy has not changed. Pyongyang did not confirm contact. https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/19/asia/kim-jong-un-sister-unaware-trump-talks-intl - [2025-07-29] Reference class: Kim Yo Jong said the personal relationship is "not bad". She called denuclearization-based talks a "mockery". She said a US-DPRK meeting would remain only a US hope unless Washington accepts North Korea's nuclear status. https://www.newsonair.gov.in/kim-yo-jong-dismisses-u-s-intent-for-diplomacy-says-denuclearization-talks-are-a-mockery - [2025-12-01] Reference class: Trump said in Oct 2025 he was willing to meet Kim during his Asia trip. No meeting took place, and it is unclear whether one was attempted. North Korea then rejected US pressure and called the 2018 agreement "scrapped and nullified". Trump's open-ended "may meet" talk has so far produced no meeting in his second term. https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2025-12/news/north-korea-appears-reject-trumps-offer-talks - [2026-10-13] Historical base rate: Trump met Kim three times, in Singapore (Jun 2018), Hanoi (Feb 2019) and Panmunjom (Jun 2019). The Panmunjom meeting was improvised after a tweet on about June 29, 2019, which shows a short-notice meeting is possible. Nothing since 2019. https://koreatimes.co.kr/foreignaffairs/northkorea/20261013/trump-says-he-may-meet-n-korean-leader-kim-during-upcoming-asia-trip - [2026-10-15] Polymarket's multi-outcome "Who will Trump meet with in 2026?" market opened 2025-11-05. Its Kim Jong Un line showed about 28% on Oct 15, 2026 with $208K volume. A secondary report says it rose from 19% to 27% after Trump's Oct 12 remark. These are sibling-market figures, not this contract's price. https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-meet-with-in-2026 - [2025-12-24] Same Polymarket market, early snapshot: the Kim line was shown at 51% with only $1.8K volume. That figure was thin and was later not borne out; the price has since fallen to about 28%. https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-meet-with-in-2026/will-trump-meet-with-lai-ching-te-in-2026 - [2026-09-14] Polymarket's September sibling market ("meet with Trump in Sept 2026") priced Kim at about 1% and resolved No. This is consistent with no meeting having occurred through Sept. https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-meet-with-in-september-20260826 - [2025-12-31] Polymarket's "Trump meets Xi, Putin and Kim by Dec 31, 2025" resolved No at under 1%. https://polymarket.com/event/trump-meets-xi-putin-and-kim-by-december-31 - [2026-10-12] Trump recently appeared with Dennis Rodman, who has acted as an informal intermediary with Kim. Trump also cut US-South Korea drills in August, citing his "very good relationship" with Kim. These are goodwill gestures without Pyongyang's public agreement. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/oct/12/trump-says-may-see-north-koreas-kim-jong-un-asia-trip/ BOTTOM LINE: The Trump-Kim meeting has not yet happened in 2026. Past Trump pledges to meet Kim, including the Oct 2025 Asia trip, produced no meeting. North Korea has not publicly agreed to talks, and its rhetoric is hostile. Against that, Trump is openly pushing for a meeting, the November Asia trip is the realistic window, and the 2019 Panmunjom meeting shows one can be arranged on short notice. The sibling Polymarket line of about 28% is the only market reference found. NOT FOUND: Any confirmed scheduled meeting, any North Korean statement agreeing to a summit, or any independent expert probability estimate. I also did not find Metaculus or Kalshi markets on a 2026 Trump-Kim meeting.

YES means: Trump and Kim Jong Un are both present and interact in person at any point between Jan 1 and Dec 31, 2026. The most likely occasion is the Nov 16–19 Asia trip. - [2026-10-16] The Lowy Institute piece (fetched) puts the "YES" path in Shenzhen. It says a narrow summit that only reopens communication, with denuclearisation off the immediate agenda, is a feasible deal. Kim might gain a route to sanctions relief and a less confrontational US relationship. Lowy also cites unconfirmed SCMP reports of a US envoy making a preparatory visit to Shenzhen and Hangzhou. https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/the-last-chance-for-a-trump-kim-summit - [2026-10-16] Lowy says Trump faces record-low approval and that Republican midterm losses could constrain his foreign policy. That gives him a domestic reason to seek a foreign-policy win at APEC, and he has no cost in trying. Lowy also notes Beijing is staying neutral: Wang Yi called a summit "what North Korea and the US should decide" and offered a "constructive role". https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/the-last-chance-for-a-trump-kim-summit - [2026-10-13] Latin Times reports that Trump and Xi agreed at their September White House summit to cooperate on a successful APEC. Observers think Trump asked Beijing to help arrange a Kim encounter. This is analyst interpretation, not confirmed. https://www.latintimes.com/untested-icbm-permanent-display-what-kim-jong-un-wants-washington-know-before-any-summit-600177 - [2026-10-13] A Seoul analyst quoted by Reuters (via Cyprus Mail) read Kim's Oct 11 ICBM museum opening as propaganda to gain a strategic advantage "ahead of potential" talks. On this reading, Kim is building leverage for a summit, not ruling one out. https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/10/13/north-koreas-kim-showcases-missile-capable-of-reaching-us-as-trump-signals-possible-meeting - [2026-09-02] South Korea's NIS told lawmakers in closed session (around Sept 1) that a summit "should be viewed as possible at any time." It said concrete contact was unconfirmed but that there were "signs of dialogue". https://en.fnnews.com/news/202609020613017633 - [2026-09-02] The same report says the White House was reportedly starting behind-the-scenes groundwork, such as US war-remains recovery. That is a standard trust-building gesture. The report also says Trump wants to be the first US president to visit Pyongyang. Bolton (Sept 1) says Trump wants a "publicity photo". The remains-recovery item is a media report and is unconfirmed. https://en.fnnews.com/news/202609020613017633 - [2026-10-13] The State Department's Tommy Pigott said Trump does not see talks with North Korea as a concession. That is consistent with a softer, talks-first approach. https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/foreignaffairs/northkorea/20261013/trump-says-he-may-meet-n-korean-leader-kim-during-upcoming-asia-trip - [2025-10-18] Precedent for short notice: the 2019 DMZ meeting followed a Trump tweet inviting Kim. Kim accepted within about a day, and Trump crossed the line on June 30, 2019. Trump's team activated the DMZ hotline and used a bullhorn. In Oct 2025 the same approach produced nothing: calls went unanswered and no Panmunjom scouting was done. That shows the path exists, but it needs Kim's acceptance. https://www.cnn.com/2025/10/18/politics/kim-jong-un-donald-trump-asia-trip - [2025-08-28] Kim has recent experience with multilateral events in China. He attended Beijing's Sept 2025 parade, his first multi-leader event, and rail links with Beijing resumed in March 2026. So a short trip to Shenzhen is logistically plausible, though no report says he will attend. https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/dprk/2025/dprk-250828-rfa01.htm BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES path is a short-notice sideline meeting in Shenzhen on Nov 18–19, or an improvised DMZ or other meeting around that trip. This would be arranged with Chinese help, with denuclearisation left off the table, and in a 2019-style rapid acceptance. Trump's motive, the NIS's "possible at any time" assessment and the 2019 precedent support it, but Pyongyang's acceptance is the missing prerequisite. NOT FOUND: Any North Korean or Chinese confirmation of a Trump–Kim meeting or of Kim attending APEC. Any confirmed US envoy trip to Shenzhen (only an unconfirmed SCMP report, cited by Lowy). Any KCNA response to Trump's Oct 12 remarks. I did not retrieve the SCMP and Reuters pieces that Lowy links.

YES means: Trump and Kim Jong Un are both present and interact in person at any point between Jan 1 and Dec 31, 2026 (11:59 PM ET). The market resolves on consensus credible reporting. - [2026-10-16] Deadline arithmetic: the only identified window is the mid-November Asia trip, and the Nov 16–19 schedule leaves about 4 days. The trip is described as "expected", not announced. FNN notes Trump has not explicitly confirmed APEC. SCMP, citing a source, has him at ASEAN in Manila first. After that trip, the only other known Trump–Xi event is the G20 Miami summit in December. That is a US venue Kim would not attend, so it gives no second window. https://en.fnnews.com/news/202610131404288449 - [2026-10-13] Venue problem: North Korea belongs to neither APEC nor ASEAN. Any encounter would need a separate arrangement. Nobody has been identified as hosting one, and Beijing has said nothing on it. https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/donald-trump-tells-reporters-i-get-along-him-while-hinting-meeting-kim-jong-un-1825342 - [2026-10-13] Kim ignored Trump's remarks. On Oct 11 he inspected the Hwasong-20 ICBM at the museum opening, a day before Trump's "may". Ambassador Kang said there were "no concrete signs" of resumed dialogue. https://en.fnnews.com/news/202610131404288449 - [2026-04, Armscontrol.org] Kim's stated price for talks: the US must recognise North Korea as a nuclear state and drop its "hostile policy". The State Department still lists denuclearisation as a goal. This is the structural blocker. Trump's Oct 3 remark that North Korea has 112 weapons and that the US should get along with nuclear states is the only movement on it. https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2026-04/news/north-korea-seeks-nuclear-recognition-us-talks - [2026-01 (Q4 2025 review), 38 North] Direct precedent: in Oct 2025 Trump said he would "love to meet" Kim during his Asia trip. North Korea answered with missile launches on Oct 22 and 28 and a Moscow visit. A vice foreign minister called denuclearisation a "pipedream" on Nov 1. 38 North judged that Kim deliberately ignored the offer. Trump said afterwards that he was too busy to arrange a meeting. The October 2026 pattern is the same: four launches in about a month, then the museum opening. https://www.38north.org/2026/01/north-korea-resumes-criticism-of-the-us-while-moderating-rhetoric-accelerates-exchanges-with-china/ - [2026-01 (Q4 2025 review), 38 North] Kim's China factor: a surprise summit with Trump could embarrass Xi, who was just restoring ties with Kim. 38 North cites this as a likely reason Kim declined in 2025. Trump himself said in 2025 that meeting Kim might have disrespected the Xi meeting. A Kim–Trump meeting inside Xi's own APEC summit is a harder ask than Busan was. https://www.38north.org/2026/01/north-korea-resumes-criticism-of-the-us-while-moderating-rhetoric-accelerates-exchanges-with-china/ - [2026-06-08] Xi visited Pyongyang for a summit with Kim. This is the first Xi trip there in seven years, and China's foreign ministry published the readout. Beijing's leverage and Kim's incentives point to a China–DPRK–Russia alignment, not a US opening. Brookings frames the visit as Beijing reasserting its place as Pyongyang's top partner. https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xw/zyxw/202606/t20260609_11940480.html - [2026-10-10] KCNA, via Reuters, reported that the foreign ministry condemned a US human rights report as part of "hostile policy". This was two days before Trump's "may". It shows the official line has not shifted. https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2026-10-09/north-korea-criticizes-us-human-rights-report-kcna-says - [2026-10-13] Trump's language is non-committal ("I may", "that's possible"). The Korea Times, UPI and IBTimes all report no date, no venue and no sign that Pyongyang agreed. Trump's August claim that Kim responded was denied by Kim Yo Jong. The only side signalling is Trump's, and his past statements on this have not produced meetings. https://koreatimes.co.kr/foreignaffairs/northkorea/20261013/trump-says-he-may-meet-n-korean-leader-kim-during-upcoming-asia-trip - [2026-10-13] Even if talks happen, Kim would need to leave North Korea and travel to Shenzhen or Manila. He has made a foreign trip only when the host is a close partner (China in Sept 2025, Russia). No US-hosted or neutral-venue trip is on record since 2019. An alternative is Trump going to the DMZ. No such stop is in the reported itinerary. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_international_trips_made_by_Kim_Jong_Un - [2026-10-12] Status quo needs no event. Nothing has happened since June 2019 and nothing is scheduled. Trump's attention on the trip is split between the Xi bilateral, a possible Putin trilateral (Putin said he was "strongly in favor") and the Manila summit. Preparations for a Kim summit are not visible, and 2019 Panmunjom was improvised from a trip already built around a Seoul stop. https://en.fnnews.com/news/202610131404288449 BOTTOM LINE: A YES needs Kim to reverse a year-long pattern of ignoring Trump's offers. It would also have to happen within one specific window of about four days. Nothing is arranged. Kim's price (nuclear-state recognition) is unmet, his missile and museum signals point the other way, and the Oct 2025 precedent ended in a no-show. NOT FOUND: Any official White House, KCNA or Chinese confirmation of a planned Trump–Kim meeting. Any report that Kim is attending APEC or travelling abroad in November. Any KCNA response to the Oct 12 remarks. Any Trump DMZ stop in his itinerary. The Diplomat's August piece could not be opened in full, so only its search snippet was read.