Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 9.6 million?

- [2026-09-30] DBEDT's August 2026 release (preliminary) shows 772,039 visitors, down 5.6% from 817,504 in August 2025. Average length of stay fell to 7.55 days from 8.47. The release attributes the drop partly to Hurricane Lala (Aug 14–16) and Tropical Storm Moke (Aug 22–24). https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/blog/26-62/ - [2026-09-30] Year to date through August 2026: 6,693,107 visitors, up 1.8% from 6,572,305. The YTD total includes 97,773 out-of-state cruise visitors (49 trips). The 2025 YTD figure is the one DBEDT published in the August release. https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/blog/26-62/ - [2026-10-16] Arithmetic from the DBEDT figures: 9.6M minus 6,693,107 leaves 2,906,893 needed in Sep–Dec 2026. Sep–Dec 2025 was about 3,070,686 (the 9,642,991 full-year total minus 6,572,305; my calculation, so it assumes no revision to the 2025 figures). Sep–Dec 2026 can therefore fall about 5.3% year on year and still clear 9.6M. A drop of about 5.6%, like August's, would land close to the line. https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/blog/26-62/ - [2026-09-30] DBEDT's release notes that Hurricane Lowell (Sep 7–8) caused flooding, power outages and wind damage on Kauai, Niihau and parts of Oahu. Lowell's effect on arrivals will appear only in the September data, due in October. https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/blog/26-62/ - [2026-09-25] Beat of Hawaii, using DBEDT daily passenger data: direct domestic arrivals to Kauai averaged 461 a day on Sep 7–13, down nearly 79%. On Sep 19–23 they averaged 859, down about 62% from a year earlier. In the first six days of September they were up about 5%. Other islands' September arrivals were not found. https://beatofhawaii.com/kauai-wants-visitors-back-so-where-are-they/ - [2026-09-10] DBEDT's Q3 forecast projects 9,728.9 thousand arrivals for 2026, up 0.9% from 9,643.0 thousand in 2025. That is about 129k above the 9.6M strike. The forecast predates the August data release and the Lowell effects. DBEDT's earlier forecasts: 9,828k in the Q2 report, 9,725k in the Q4 2025 report. https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/economic/qser/outlook-economy/ - [2026-09-10] DBEDT expects scheduled air seats up 2.4% for Sep–Nov 2026. Domestic seats are up 6.3% and international seats down 12.7%. Another DBEDT release puts Japan seats at –12.9% and Canada at –12.7% for the same period. https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/economic/qser/outlook-economy/ - [2026-09-30] Monthly arrival trend in 2026, as year-on-year changes: February +3.6% (first two months +7.1%), April –0.5%, June +0.2% (H1 +2.5%), July +1.1% (YTD +2.3%), August –5.6% (YTD +1.8%). Growth is slowing: U.S. East is up about 10% YTD, but other international markets are down. https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/blog/26-62/ - [2026-09-30] August arrivals by market: U.S. West 399,695 (–4.5%), U.S. East 185,962 (–4.5%), Japan 81,814 (–9.7%), Canada 24,041 (+0.6%), other international 78,650 (–12.5%). August transpacific seats were –0.7% and international seats –8.9%. https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/blog/26-62/ - [2026-09-30] Cruise arrivals add little to the total: 97,773 visitors by cruise through August, against 149,778 for all of 2025. Fall and winter bring more cruise calls, and the 2025 cruise total shows how much that can add. https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/blog/26-62/ - [2026-10-16] The September 2026 data release is not yet out. DBEDT released August data on Sep 30, so September data should come in late October. The October, November and December releases follow, and the full-year release is probably late January 2027. That date may fall at or after the Jan 31 trading close; I did not confirm it. https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/economic/tourism/monthly-statistics/ - [2026-09-18] Civil Beat describes 2026 as a year of fewer visitors who spend more per person and stay fewer days, with international travel hit especially hard. https://www.civilbeat.org/2026/09/fewer-tourists-but-theyre-spending-more-is-this-what-hawaii-wanted/ BOTTOM LINE: Through August the year is 120k ahead of 2025, and Sep–Dec can fall about 5.3% year on year and still clear 9.6M. August's –5.6% decline and the Lowell damage to Kauai put that margin under pressure, but DBEDT's September forecast of about 9.73M sits above the line. The September release, due late October, is the key near-term data point. NOT FOUND: any September 2026 statewide arrival data or daily passenger counts for the whole state. Also missing: the exact release date of the full-year 2026 data, and 2025 monthly Sep–Dec actuals, which I derived by subtraction. I also found no post-Lowell forecast revision from DBEDT or UHERO.

**Arithmetic on the threshold** - 2025 total was 9,642,991. January–August 2025 was 6,572,305, so September–December 2025 was about 3,070,686. - 2026 needs more than 9.6M. Given 6,693,107 through August, September–December 2026 must exceed about 2,906,900. That is a decline of no worse than about −5.3% year on year for the rest of the year. - 2026 YTD arrivals are 121k above 2025 YTD. The threshold sits 43k below the 2025 total. The 2026 cushion is therefore about 164k, or about 5.3% of the 2025 Sep–Dec base. - For this window, the 2025 comparison base is itself soft. Late 2025 was weak (the slowdown ran from after May through December). - [2026-09-30] DBEDT, August 2026 (preliminary): 772,039 visitors, −5.6% year on year, hit by Hurricane Lala (Aug 14–16) and Tropical Storm Moke. Year to date, 6,693,107 visitors arrived in the first eight months of 2026, +1.8% from 6,572,305. https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/blog/26-62/ - [2026-09-30] August 2026 detail: US West −4.5%, US East −4.5%, Japan −9.7%, Canada +0.6%, other international −12.5%. Average daily census was −15.9% on shorter stays. YTD growth by region: US East +10.3%, US West +0.5%, Canada −5.0%. https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/blog/26-62/ - [2026-09-10] DBEDT Q3 forecast: 9.7M arrivals in 2026, +0.9%. That implies about 9.73M, so a forecast cushion of about 100k above the threshold. First-half arrivals were +2.5%. July arrivals were +1.1%. Scheduled seats for September–November are up 6.5% from US West and 4.4% from US East. They are down for Japan (−12.9%), Canada (−12.7%) and Korea (−21.8%). https://governor.hawaii.gov/newsroom/news-release-dbedt-projects-1-3-percent-growth-for-2026/ - [2025-12-05] DBEDT's earlier forecast for 2026 was 9,761k, so DBEDT has revised down slightly. The March 2026 release had 1.7% growth. https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/blog/25-46/ - [2026-09 (about 09-01)] UHERO's latest forecast is statewide arrivals down slightly more than 0.5% in 2026. Applied to 9.643M, that gives about 9.59M, just under the threshold. It cites repeated storms (Lala, Lowell) and higher fuel costs, with Kauai hit hardest. https://www.mauinews.com/news/local-news/2026/09/uhero-forecasts-slower-hawaii-growth-amid-high-oil-prices-storms/ (also https://www.khon2.com/hawaii-hurricane/hawaii-tourism-declines-storms/) - [2026-05-15] UHERO's Q2 forecast had about +2% growth for 2026. It has since been cut to about −0.5%, a swing of roughly 2.5 points in four months. That shows how fast the forecasts are moving. https://www.hawaii.edu/news/2026/05/15/uhero-second-quarter-forecast-2026/ - [2025-12-12] UHERO's December 2025 forecast was a decline of more than 1% for 2026. UHERO and DBEDT have differed by about 1.5 points all year. https://uhero.hawaii.edu/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/UHEROForecastForTheStateOfHawaii25Q4Press.pdf - [2026-01-30] 2025 total was 9.64M, −0.6% from 2024 (9.70M), against 10.4M in 2019. Preliminary data showed 9.64 million visitors in 2025, a 0.6% dip from 2024. Historical reference: 2023 was 9,658k and 2024 was 9,701k, so the last three years all sat within about 0.5% of 9.65–9.70M. The 9.6M line is close to the central value of that range. https://www.hawaiitribune-herald.com/2026/02/01/hawaii-news/hawaii-visitor-arrivals-end-2025-well-below-pre-pandemic-peak/ - [2026-09-30] Monthly 2026 year-on-year arrivals: February +3.6%, May air +3.8%, June air +0.3%, July +1.1%, August −5.6%. Growth has decelerated sharply since spring; the March storms and the August storms each cut arrivals. Sources: https://www.hawaii-guide.com/blog/hawaii-summer-2026-visitor-trends-booking-window and https://tourismanalytics.com/hawaii-statistics.html - [2026-09-30] Resolution mechanics: the first publication with full 2026 data is DBEDT's December release, expected around late January 2027. In 2025 the preliminary release came on about 2026-01-29, just before the 2027-01-31 close. The rules use that first publication, with no later revisions. https://www.hawaiitribune-herald.com/2026/02/01/hawaii-news/hawaii-visitor-arrivals-end-2025-well-below-pre-pandemic-peak/ - [2026-07 YTD] Cruise arrivals were 95,896 through July, in line with 2025 at about 150k for the full year. They are a small component. https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/blog/26-54/ BOTTOM LINE: Base rate: 2023–2025 totals were all about 9.66–9.70M, so 9.6M sits near the bottom of that band. Hawaii has been about 120k ahead of 2025 YTD, and the cushion is about 5.3% of the 2025 Sep–Dec base. DBEDT's forecast (about 9.73M) clears the line, while UHERO's (about 9.59M) is slightly below it. The outcome therefore depends on whether September–December falls worse than about −5%, which would take another major storm or an air disruption beyond the August hit. NOT FOUND: No September 2026 DBEDT data yet; it is likely due in late October. No Q4 2026 booking-pace or seat figures beyond November. I did not find any other-venue market or poll on this question. I could not find an official 2026 release-date calendar for the December data.

YES means: DBEDT's first publication with complete January–December 2026 data shows total statewide arrivals (air plus out-of-state cruise) above 9,600,000. - [2026-09-30] The August miss came from short stays and storm disruption, not from a collapse in trips. Island arrivals fell about 5.5–6.7% in August. Average daily census fell 15.9% (stay length 7.55 days against 8.47). The hit looks like cancellations, delays and shorter trips around Lala and Moke. Those are one-off events, not a structural loss of demand. https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/blog/26-62/ - [2026-09-30] Airlift into Hawaii is still growing, which supports a rebound once weather clears. Transpacific seats were +4.5% year to date through August against arrivals of +1.8%. August U.S. West seats were +0.6% and U.S. East seats +5.6%. Seat supply therefore sits above realised arrivals. The weak spots are international seats (–8.9% in August) and Korea (–29.6%), and those markets are a small share of arrivals. https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/blog/26-62/ - [2026-09-30] International markets are not collapsing year to date. Japan is +0.8% YTD (477,032), and Canada is –5.0% YTD. Japan's August seats were only –1.9%, even though Japan arrivals fell 9.7% that month. U.S. East is +10.3% YTD (1,840,064). The big-ticket drags are limited to Korea, Oceania and "other international." https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/blog/26-62/ - [2026-09-30] Kauai is a modest share of the state, so Lowell alone cannot sink the total. Kauai had 115,997 visitors in August, about 15% of the statewide 772,039. Kauai was still +0.9% YTD (989,084). Maui is +6.0% YTD and Oahu +0.6%. For Lowell to erase the cushion by itself, Kauai would have to stay down about 40% or more for several months. Even UHERO's roughly 100k (about 6%) full-year Kauai shortfall is about 1% of the statewide total. https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/blog/26-62/ and https://about.hawaiilife.com/blog/kaua%CA%BBi-tourism-faces-headwinds-after-a-challenging-2026/ - [2026-10-10] Kauai is reopening faster than the worst-case coverage implied. HTA's Sept 23 update said most accommodations, restaurants, shops, tours and activities had reopened. County and state notices as of Oct 8–10 show remaining closures limited to specific parks, trails and Haena/Wainiha access. A Kauai trough confined to September and early October fits the YES path. https://www.hawaii-guide.com/blog/kauai-welcomes-visitors-arrivals-recovery - [2026-09-16] Displacement toward other islands cushions the state total. HTA's interim CEO asked visitors to "pivot" to other islands, not cancel Hawaii trips. Power was restored to more than 80% of the affected areas within a week. Any Kauai trips shifted to Oahu, Maui or Hawaii Island still count as statewide arrivals. https://travelmarketnews.com/kauai-hurricane-lowell-tourism-recovery-september-2026 and https://www.travelandtourworld.com/news/article/us9onlhlxm72/ - [2026-09-30] UHERO's slowdown call is framed as temporary. It expects arrivals and spending to recover as weather normalises and fuel costs ease. Even its pessimistic full-year figure (about –0.5%) is within about 0.1M of the 9.6M line. The 9.6M threshold is below 2025's 9.643M, so YES needs only a decline of less than about 0.45% for the full year. https://about.hawaiilife.com/blog/kaua%CA%BBi-tourism-faces-headwinds-after-a-challenging-2026/ - [2026-10-01] The hurricane season has a natural end. Central Pacific activity drops sharply after early October, and the season officially ends Nov 30. The three named systems so far (Lala, Moke, Lowell) all hit Aug–Sep. Q4 is the largest remaining block, and the holiday period (Thanksgiving, December) has the highest per-month demand. Most of the remaining storm risk is in the first six weeks of the window. https://howtoliveinhawaii.com/hawaii-in-october/ and https://www.hawaii-guide.com/best-time-to-visit-hawaii - [2026-09-30] The 2026 Q4 comparison base is weak. The Hawaii Tribune-Herald (2026-01-30) reports 2025 slipping 0.6% to 9.64M. The Aug 2025 base of 817,504 was not especially high, and August 2026 still reached 772,039. A Sep–Dec drop worse than about 5.3% would need a deeper hit than the August storm month, which had two named storms in 10 days. https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/blog/26-62/ and https://www.hawaiitribune-herald.com/2026/02/01/hawaii-news/hawaii-visitor-arrivals-end-2025-well-below-pre-pandemic-peak/ - [2026-08-31] Hotel data show Aug occupancy at 72.7% (–1.3 points), a much smaller dip than arrivals (–5.6%). That points to lodging demand holding up better than arrivals. Kauai hotel occupancy was 72.6% (–2.3 points), not a collapse. Aug RevPAR for Kauai was –2.4%. Visitors who did come were staying and spending. https://files.hawaii.gov/dbedt/economic/tourism/hotel-performance/Hotel-performance-2026-08.pdf - [2026-09-30] Cruise arrivals can add to the total. The DBEDT release notes that cruise visitors were 97,773 through August against 149,778 for all of 2025, so Sep–Dec cruise volume normally contributes about 50k. The release excerpt I read was cut off before the full cruise details, and I did not confirm 2026's scheduled fall calls. https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/blog/26-62/ **Single most likely path to YES:** Hawaii finishes with a Sep–Dec drop of no more than about 5% (the 2025 base is about 3.07M). September takes the Lowell hit, concentrated on Kauai, and partly offset by trips moved to other islands. October to December return to roughly flat as seat growth (+4.5% YTD transpacific) and U.S. East strength carry through, and no further major storm or air disruption occurs. That would put 2026 near DBEDT's September forecast of about 9.73M (reported by colleagues), with ample margin over 9.6M. The prerequisites are no second major hurricane in Q4 and domestic seat counts holding. BOTTOM LINE: The YES case rests on a cushion that is about 164k wide (colleagues' arithmetic, which I checked against the Aug release's YTD figures). Airline seats are growing, Kauai is a small share of the state total, and the storm risk is mostly behind the state. The weakest link is September data that has not yet been published. NOT FOUND: Any statewide September 2026 arrivals figure. Q4 2026 airline seat counts beyond November. A published full-year 2026 release date. Any official post-Lowell DBEDT revision of its 9.73M forecast. The full cruise-schedule detail for Sep–Dec 2026 (the fetched DBEDT page was truncated).

YES means: DBEDT's first publication with complete January–December 2026 data shows total statewide visitor arrivals (air plus out-of-state cruise) above 9,600,000. I could not open the khon2 and Star-Advertiser pages in full, so the bullets below rest on search-result text for those. The DBEDT August page was confirmed in the search result. - [2026-09-30] The August data point to a steeper fall in length of stay than in headcount. Visitor days fell 15.9% in August and are down 5.9% year to date. Arrivals are +1.8% year to date only because stays are shorter. The cushion is therefore built on short-stay counts that could reverse. Visitor days by island show Maui –20.2% in August. https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/blog/26-62/ - [2026-09-30] Hotel occupancy fell in August on Hurricane Lala, with Hawaii Island hotels –3.5 points and Kauai –2.3 points. This supports demand softness beyond the storm days. https://files.hawaii.gov/dbedt/economic/tourism/hotel-performance/Hotel-performance-2026-08.pdf - [2026-09-30] The Lowell hit shows up in UHERO's daily arrival counts. Statewide daily arrivals ran about 32–40k before Lala, fell to about 20k after it, recovered to about 28–32k, then dropped to about 20k after Lowell. Kauai fell from 2,000–3,000 domestic arrivals a day to below 1,000. Two storm shocks in four weeks hit the state's volume, not just Kauai's. A 20k/day pace is about 600k a month. https://www.khon2.com/hawaii-hurricane/hawaii-tourism-declines-storms/ - [2026-09-30] UHERO projects Kauai about 100k visitors (about –6%) lower in 2026, with occupancy around 60.9% against 64% last year. Roughly 100k of the 164k cushion could go on Kauai alone if that is realised. Higher fares and shorter trips also weigh. https://about.hawaiilife.com/blog/kaua%CA%BBi-tourism-faces-headwinds-after-a-challenging-2026/ - [2026-09-16] Airlines are signalling more capacity cuts if fuel stays high. United, American and Southwest said they expect to trim flying, and the cuts are expected to hit cheaper, less profitable fares. Hawaii leisure travel is price-sensitive, so this threatens Q4 seats beyond DBEDT's September seat forecast. https://www.staradvertiser.com/2026/09/16/breaking-news/american-and-united-prepare-capacity-cuts-over-fuel-costs/ - [2026-10-05] Jet fuel rose from the mid-$3 range in August to above $4 a gallon by late September (Argus $4.40 on Sep 28). Cirium shows about 3% of domestic seats removed for Nov 25–Dec 31. These are secondary sources, but they point to tighter holiday supply into Hawaii's peak December. DBEDT's seat forecast predates the jump. https://www.nomadlawyer.org/us-holiday-airfare-2026-capacity-cuts-jet-fuel-inflation - [2026-08-19] Alaska said on its Q2 call that Hawaii demand was disrupted by storms. It also said industry capacity growth outpaced domestic system capacity. The call includes a question about an expected improvement in Hawaii in September, so management had expected a rebound that Lowell then disrupted. https://gloom.sh/stocks/alk/transcripts/q2-2026 - [2026-10-12] Hawaiian/Alaska filed a further round of layoffs in October 2026. The reason cited is a continued international downturn and a sharp rise in jet fuel prices. This is a minor signal but points the same way as the fuel and capacity bullets. https://simpleflying.com/hawaiian-airlines-oahu-downsizing-layoff-530-non-union-employees/ - [2026-09-18] Canada remains down by about two-thirds, and Japan is weak in Honolulu. International is about 17% of arrivals and shows no recovery before December. The Japan and Canada seat declines of about 13% each, and Korea's of about 22%, reported earlier, show nothing close to a recovery by the year end. https://www.civilbeat.org/2026/09/fewer-tourists-but-theyre-spending-more-is-this-what-hawaii-wanted/ - [2026-10-16] Status quo and timing: Q4 has no cruise offset (2025 cruise calls were mostly already in the YTD figure), and hurricane season runs to Nov 30. UHERO's chief economist warned of another October storm. Any one more disruption of the Lala/Lowell scale in Oct–Dec would be on top of the weak September that Lowell has already put in the data. https://www.khon2.com/hawaii-hurricane/hawaii-tourism-declines-storms/ - [2026-09-30] The shortfall to clear is modest. If September falls about 8% year on year (Kauai near –60% for two weeks, other islands mildly down) and Oct–Dec falls about 4%, the total lands near 9.6M. Small differences in the final quarter decide the outcome. This is my own arithmetic using the figures in the colleagues' reports, not a source figure. https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/blog/26-62/ BOTTOM LINE: The strongest NO case is that two storms and rising fuel costs have moved the trend from slightly positive to negative within two months. UHERO's –0.5% forecast, which puts the year just under 9.6M, may be the more current view, since it includes Lowell and the fuel spike while DBEDT's 9.73M does not. Even so, the cushion is about 164k, and the NO side needs Sep–Dec to fall by about 5% or more year on year, which is a sustained decline rather than one bad month. NOT FOUND: Any September 2026 DBEDT arrivals data, the statewide September daily passenger counts, a post-Lowell DBEDT forecast revision, Q4 Hawaii-specific seat data, and the official release date for the full-year 2026 data.