Will Hawaii’s total visitor expenditures for 2026 be above $21.7531 billion?

**Threshold context:** The $21.7531B strike matches the preliminary 2025 figure of $21.75B. DBEDT has since revised 2025 to a final $21.863B. The August 2026 release says 2025 data are now "final numbers". So 2026 clears the strike if it comes in no more than about 0.5% below final 2025. - [2026-09-30] DBEDT's latest release (preliminary August 2026) put visitor spending at $1.59B (1,585.3M), down 9.7% from August 2025. Arrivals were 772,039, down 5.6%. Average daily spending was $272, up 7.4%, and visitor days fell 15.9%. https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/blog/26-62/ - [2026-09-30] January–August 2026 spending was $15.21B (15,214.9M), up 4.1% from $14.62B (14,616.7M) in January–August 2025. Arrivals were 6.69M, up 1.8%. https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/blog/26-62/ - [2026-09-30] The August drop came from Hurricane Lala (Aug 14–16) and Tropical Storm Moke (Aug 22–24). The release says Lala caused flight delays and cancellations. https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/blog/26-62/ - [2026-08-xx / 2026-09-30] Year-to-date growth slowed from +6.3% in H1 (to $11.6B) and +5.6% through July ($13.63B) to +4.1% through August. https://governor.hawaii.gov/newsroom/news-release-dbedt-projects-1-3-percent-growth-for-2026/ and https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/blog/26-54/ - [2026-01-xx] Final 2025 total visitor expenditures were $21,863M (+5.5%). The January 2026 release gave the preliminary $21.75B (+5.7%), with a 2025 total of 9,642,991 arrivals. https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/blog/26-04/ and https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/blog/26-55/ - [Derived from the above] Final 2025 minus January–August 2025 is about $7.25B for September–December 2025. The strike minus the 2026 year-to-date of $15.215B leaves about $6.54B needed for September–December 2026. That is roughly a 9.8% year-over-year decline, about the size of August's −9.7%. This is my arithmetic, not a published figure. - [2026-09-07/08] Hurricane Lowell (Category 2) hit Kauai, Niihau and parts of Oahu. https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/blog/26-62/ HTA asked visitors to delay or redirect Kauai trips. https://www.mauinews.com/news/local-news/2026/09/tourists-should-skip-kauai-for-now-as-it-recovers-from-hurricane-lowell-officials-say/ - [2026-09-25] Beat of Hawaii, using DBEDT daily passenger data, reported direct domestic arrivals to Kauai about 62% below the prior year on Sept 19–23 (859 per day against 2,247). This counts all arriving passengers, not just visitors. https://beatofhawaii.com/kauai-wants-visitors-back-so-where-are-they/ - [~2026-09-27] KHON2 reported UHERO data showing statewide daily arrivals falling to about 20,000 after Lala and again after Lowell. UHERO projects 2026 arrivals down just over 0.5% and real visitor spending down nearly 2%. UHERO's forecast assumes roughly three-quarters of Kauai visitors are lost for the rest of September, recovering by Thanksgiving. https://www.khon2.com/hawaii-hurricane/hawaii-tourism-declines-storms/ and https://uhero.hawaii.edu/uhero-forecast-for-the-state-of-hawai%CA%BBi-no-respite-from-storms-or-oil-prices/ - [~2026-09-10] DBEDT's mid-September forecast (the 1.3% growth release) projects 2026 nominal visitor expenditures of $22.365B (+2.3%). That implies September–December 2026 of about $7.15B, roughly −1.4% year over year. https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/blog/26-55/ This forecast was made before the August release and before the full effect of Lowell was visible. - [2026-09-30 / 2026-09-xx] Air seats scheduled for September–November are up for U.S. West (+6.5%) and U.S. East (+4.4%). They are down for Japan (−12.9%) and Canada (−12.7%). https://governor.hawaii.gov/newsroom/news-release-dbedt-projects-1-3-percent-growth-for-2026/ August international seats were −8.9%. https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/blog/26-62/ - [Scheduled releases] DBEDT's September 2026 data are due around late October. October data are due around late November and November data around late December. The full-year 2026 data are due around late January 2027, close to the Jan 29 market close. I did not find a confirmed release date, and the timing is inferred from the 2025 pattern (the December 2025 release was on the DBEDT blog as 26-04). Resolution uses the first full-year release. BOTTOM LINE: Through August, 2026 spending is about $0.6B ahead of 2025, and about $0.6B above where it needs to be given the final 2025 base. September–December must fall about 10% year over year to miss, which is about as severe as August's storm-hit month. September has the largest unknown because of Lowell and Kauai's collapse in arrivals, but higher per-person spending is supporting the total. NOT FOUND: DBEDT's September 2026 monthly data (not yet released). A confirmed release date for the full-year 2026 data. Any reported October 2026 spending data. The KHON2 page fetch failed, so its content comes from search snippets only.

- [2025-12 release] The 2025 total was $21.75B (+5.7% on $20.58B in 2024). The question's $21.7531B strike looks like the final 2025 figure, so the question is whether 2026 beats 2025 in nominal dollars. https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/blog/26-04/ - [2026-09-30] Jan–Aug 2026 spending was $15,214.9M, against $14,616.7M for Jan–Aug 2025 (+4.1%). Those 2025 numbers are final. https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/blog/26-62/ - [2026-09-30] Arithmetic from those figures: Sep–Dec 2025 spending was about $7.14B ($21.753B minus $14.617B). 2026 needs about $6.54B for Sep–Dec to finish above the strike. That is roughly an 8.4% year-over-year fall in the four remaining months. This is my calculation, not a published figure. https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/blog/26-62/ - [2026-09-30] August 2026 was weak, at $1.59B (-9.7%), with arrivals down 5.6% and visitor days down 15.9%. Hurricane Lala (Aug 14–16) and Tropical Storm Moke (Aug 22–24) disrupted travel. Per-person daily spending rose 7.4% to $272. https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/blog/26-62/ - [2026-09-30] Hurricane Lowell hit Kauai, Niihau and parts of Oahu on Sept 7–8, 2026, so September is also likely depressed. https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/blog/26-62/ - [2026-08/09] Year-to-date growth is slowing: +6.3% through June, +5.6% through July and +4.1% through August. July alone was +1.7%. https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/blog/26-54/ - [2026-09] DBEDT projected 1.3% overall growth for 2026 and said nominal visitor spending would keep rising. Its 2025 forecasts ran low: $21.2B projected for 2025, against an actual $21.75B. https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/blog/26-55/ - [2025-08] DBEDT's earlier forecast table had 2026 spending at $21.667B, +2.2%. That was built on a lower 2025 base, so it is stale. https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/blog/25-35/ - [2026-05-15] UHERO expected inflation-adjusted visitor spending to slow and then dip by 2027. https://uhero.hawaii.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/UHEROForecastForTheStateOfHawaii26Q2Press.pdf - [2026-09/10] A KHON2 snippet (page not readable) says UHERO's newest forecast has 2026 arrivals down just over 0.5% and real spending down nearly 2%. Real spending down roughly 2% with inflation near 3% could still mean flat to slightly positive nominal spending. That inference is mine. https://www.khon2.com/hawaii-hurricane/hawaii-tourism-declines-storms/ - [Historical base rate] Nominal annual totals: 2017 about $16B, 2019 $17.72B, 2023 about $20.7B, 2024 $20.58B (earlier reported as $20.68B or $20.72B), 2025 $21.75B. Outside the 2020 pandemic year, nominal totals have almost always risen year over year. The exceptions are 2024 (a small dip or flat, after the Maui fires) and 2009. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tourism_in_Hawaii - [Timing] The 2025 full-year release came in early 2026 (DBEDT blog 26-04). Final 2025 data were reflected in the 2026 monthly releases. Resolution uses the first full-year 2026 release, expected around late Jan–Feb 2027. The market closes 2027-01-29 and the release may land after that. https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/blog/26-04/ BOTTOM LINE: The outside view favors Yes. Nominal totals nearly always grow, and the year-to-date lead is about $600M. Sep–Dec would have to fall about 8% or more year over year to flip it, and storms plus decelerating growth make that a real but tail risk. Timing is a secondary risk: the first complete-year release may come after the 2027-01-29 close. NOT FOUND: Sep/Oct 2026 monthly spending data (not yet released). The text of UHERO's latest Q3 2026 forecast (only a KHON2 snippet). Any DBEDT forecast update after September 2026 with a 2026 dollar figure. The exact scheduled date of the full-year 2026 release.

YES means: DBEDT's first publication with complete Jan–Dec 2026 data shows total statewide visitor expenditures above $21.7531B in nominal dollars. - [2026-09-25] UHERO's Q3 forecast says Honolulu inflation reached 5.6% over the 12 months to July and should average 4.8% for 2026. UHERO projects real visitor spending down 1.6% for the year. If both hold, nominal spending is about +3% (1.048 × 0.984 ≈ 1.031). That is roughly $22.5B on a $21.86B base. Earlier colleague reports guessed inflation "near 3%". The newer UHERO figure is much higher and is the strongest mechanical support for YES. https://uhero.hawaii.edu/uhero-forecast-for-the-state-of-hawai%CA%BBi-no-respite-from-storms-or-oil-prices/ - [2026-09-25] UHERO's own downbeat forecast still assumes only three-quarters of Kauai visitors are lost for the rest of September, recovering to normal by Thanksgiving. It expects statewide arrivals down only about 0.5% for 2026, with Kauai arrivals down just over 6% for the year. A near-flat arrivals outcome implies the Sep–Dec shortfall is limited. UHERO's census (visitor days) is down more than 6%, but spending per day is running above inflation. https://uhero.hawaii.edu/uhero-forecast-for-the-state-of-hawai%CA%BBi-no-respite-from-storms-or-oil-prices/ - [2026-09-25] Alohastate Daily reported UHERO's Sept 25 briefing: 2026 arrivals are down about 0.7% so far. It also said Kauai arrivals are down more than 6%. Kauai was only +0.9% through August, so this is a Lowell effect. Kauai is a small share of state spending: Jan–Aug Kauai spending was $1.97B of $15.2B, about 13%. https://alohastatedaily.com/2026/09/25/storms-war-make-for-gloomy-economic-forecast-uhero-reports/ and https://www.hawaii-guide.com/hawaii-tourism-statistics - [2026-10-15 (data for Aug 2026)] The August hotel report, which covers the Lala month, shows statewide hotel room revenue +1.4% ($478.2M) with ADR +3.3%. Luxury ADR rose 8.8%. Maui RevPAR rose 5.5%. Hotel revenue held up even when DBEDT's total visitor spending fell 9.7%. That points to the August drop coming from a shortfall in stay length and visitor days rather than a collapse in high-end spending. https://files.hawaii.gov/dbedt/economic/tourism/hotel-performance/Hotel-performance-2026-08.pdf - [2026-10-15] Kauai's damage is localized. About 97% of Kauai's power was restored by late September. Mayor Kawakami said "Kauai is open." Only Wainiha, Haena, Polihale and Kokee are still hard-hit. Lihue Airport is back to normal operations. HTA's staged timeline had South Shore arrivals resuming Sept 21 and the North Shore Oct 1. Oct–Dec is therefore largely unaffected by closures. https://www.khon2.com/hawaii-hurricane/hawaii-tourism-declines-storms/ and https://karryon.com.au/industry-news/destination/kauai-reopening-dates/ - [2026-09-25] The Beat of Hawaii data show Kauai direct domestic arrivals were still up about 5% on Sept 1–6, before Lowell. The 62% drop covers Sept 19–23 and is for one island only. Statewide arrivals fell to about 20,000 a day but are a different measure from spending. Kauai is the only island with the severe disruption, so most statewide September spending should have been intact. https://beatofhawaii.com/kauai-wants-visitors-back-so-where-are-they/ - [2026-10-08] UHERO's Bonham said about 80% of visitor spending comes from U.S. visitors. He said higher-income travelers are still traveling and spending while lower-income households stay home. That supports a K-shaped spending mix, with higher spend per visitor offsetting lower volume. https://www.hawaiipublicradio.org/the-conversation/2026-10-08/uheros-latest-economic-forecast-paints-a-bleak-picture-for-hawaii - [2026-07 snapshot on DBEDT page] DBEDT's own outlook table forecasts 2026 visitor expenditures of $22,364.6M, +2.3% on a final 2025 base of $21,863.0M. That is $611M above the strike. Visitor days are forecast at 79.96M, below the 83.75M of 2025, so DBEDT already assumes fewer days and higher spending per day. The Sep–Dec dollar figure in that forecast is not a published number. https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/economic/qser/outlook-economy/ - [2026-05-15] UHERO's Q2 report flagged that jet fuel surged and raised transpacific airfare. Higher travel costs and prices lift nominal spending per trip even as volumes soften. Hawaii-based inflation of 4.8% is a nominal tailwind for every Sep–Dec dollar spent on lodging, food and activities. http://www.hawaii.edu/news/article.php?aId=14572 BOTTOM LINE: The most likely path to YES is Sep–Dec 2026 falling by less than about 8–10% year over year, because the Jan–Aug lead is roughly $0.6B. Hurricane Lowell's hit is concentrated on Kauai, about 13% of spending, while inflation of about 5% and higher spending per day lift nominal totals. Prerequisites are that Oct–Dec spending recovers close to 2025 levels and no further major storm or air disruption hits Oahu or Maui. A first full-year release must also be published in time. NOT FOUND: DBEDT September 2026 visitor data (not yet released); any October spending or arrivals data; a confirmed release date for the full-year 2026 figures; the UHERO Q3 forecast table with a nominal spending figure (page text truncated); any DBEDT forecast update after September.

YES means: Hawaii DBEDT's first publication with complete January–December 2026 data shows total statewide visitor expenditures above $21.7531 billion, in nominal dollars. The NO case is thin on the numbers and depends mostly on Q4 deterioration and release timing. The points below add to what the earlier reports already cover. - [2026-09-25] UHERO's Q3 forecast gives the strongest NO input. It projects average daily visitor census down more than 6% for 2026, with arrivals down just over 0.5%. It blames a sharp drop in reported length of stay. The same page puts 2026 Honolulu inflation at 4.8%. So the real spending decline of about 1.6% (UHERO's 2026 figure; the KHON2 snippet said "nearly 2%") would still be nominal growth of roughly +3%. That is my arithmetic, and it assumes the visitor price deflator is close to CPI. It counts against NO, but it also shows the nominal cushion over the strike rests on price inflation, not on volume. https://uhero.hawaii.edu/uhero-forecast-for-the-state-of-hawai%CA%BBi-no-respite-from-storms-or-oil-prices/ - [2026-09-25] UHERO also reports that real visitor spending in Q2 was essentially flat year over year. Domestic growth plateaued by late spring, and the earlier price-driven gains faded. Year-to-date growth has fallen from +6.3% to +4.1%, so the trend is toward a Q4 contraction. https://uhero.hawaii.edu/uhero-forecast-for-the-state-of-hawai%CA%BBi-no-respite-from-storms-or-oil-prices/ - [2026-10-14] Some Hawaii hoteliers report holiday bookings about 15% behind last year's pace. A consultant expects a "soft fall" and a soft year-end. Hopper says Thanksgiving fares are up 31% and Christmas fares up 23%. Another survey cited in the article (PwC) projects holiday travel spending per traveler down 24%. This points to weakness in the Nov–Dec months that carry much of the remaining dollars. The evidence is anecdotal and covers hotels only. https://www.hawaiitribune-herald.com/2026/10/14/hawaii-news/hawaiis-holiday-travel-outlook-not-too-merry-amid-high-costs/ - [2026-10-10] The Hawaii Hotel Alliance president said July was already unusually soft. He said October and November do not look robust. Hotels are being pushed to discount, which would cap room-rate gains. https://www.hawaiipublicradio.org/the-conversation/2026-10-09/hotel-executive-checks-in-on-the-blows-to-hawaiis-tourist-business - [2026-10-14] August average length of stay was 7.55 days, down 10.9% and the shortest August in at least 17 years. That equals about 35,400 fewer visitors on any given day. Shorter stays are a volume drag that higher daily spending only partly offsets, and they could persist into the holidays. https://www.hawaiitribune-herald.com/2026/10/14/hawaii-news/hawaiis-holiday-travel-outlook-not-too-merry-amid-high-costs/ - [2026-09-30] The August hotel report shows statewide room revenue of $478.2M, only +1.4%, while room demand fell 1.8%. Occupancy was 72.7%, down 1.3 points. Luxury occupancy fell 5.5 points. Revenue growth is coming from price (luxury ADR +8.8%), not volume. That is fragile if discounting starts. https://files.hawaii.gov/dbedt/economic/tourism/hotel-performance/Hotel-performance-2026-08.pdf - [2026-09-30] In the August data, Kauai spending was $210.5M (−11.0%) and its Jan–Aug spending was −2.0%. The island was already negative before Lowell, which hit in September, so Lowell's loss falls on a weak base. Hawaii Island was −0.8% year to date and −14.9% in August. Only Maui (+8.1%) and Oahu (+6.3%) are carrying the total. A Maui or Oahu wobble would remove the cushion. https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/blog/26-62/ - [2026-09-14] The UHERO Q3 forecast expects Kauai arrivals down more than 6% for 2026, about 100,000 visitors. This is larger than the 0.9% year-to-date gain through August. It implies a big Sep–Dec Kauai drop. https://www.civilbeat.org/2026/09/extreme-weather-energy-prices-dampen-tourism/ - [2026-10-16] Timing: DBEDT's schedule says monthly highlights come "by last day of each month." The annual report comes in August, so it is not the first full-year release. The December 2025 data came out in January 2026, but I found no confirmed date for the December 2026 release. If the monthly release slips past the 2027-01-29 close, the market could not resolve YES by close under a strict reading. April 2026 data were already published as "limited statistics" because of a data-processing delay, so slippage has precedent this year. https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/economic/publications-schedule/ and https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/blog/26-40/ - [2026-09-30] Preliminary figures are subject to revision. May–March data were revised on 2026-07-27, and the August release calls 2025 data "final." Resolution uses the first full-year publication. If the preliminary 2026 total comes in low (as the 2025 preliminary $21.75B later rose to $21.863B), a low-side first print counts for NO. Revisions have recently run upward, which cuts against this. https://hta.hawaii.gov/research/monthly-visitor-statistics/ BOTTOM LINE: The NO case needs Sep–Dec 2026 spending to fall about 8–10% year over year, roughly August's storm-hit pace, with the Lowell hit to Kauai in September, 15%-lagging holiday hotel bookings, and shorter stays all pointing that way. Even so, UHERO's own forecast implies roughly +3% nominal growth for the year because 2026 inflation is running about 4.8%. The best structural NO paths are a sharp Q4 volume collapse and a full-year release landing after the 2027-01-29 close. NOT FOUND: DBEDT's September 2026 visitor data, which was not yet out as of Oct 16. A confirmed publication date for the December 2026 release. A DBEDT forecast update after mid-September. UHERO's nominal 2026 visitor spending figure, as only the real figures were visible in the pages I read.