Will at least 50 states conduct 2026 U.S. House midterms on time? — Yes

- [2026-10-16] Every source I found still lists Election Day for the House as Tuesday, Nov 3, 2026, in all 435 districts. Ballotpedia says all 435 districts are up on that date. Britannica says in-person voting is on Nov 3. I found no enacted or pending federal or state change to the date. https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2026 - [2026-10-13, approx., "13 days ago" per the search tool] Protect Democracy says the president cannot cancel or postpone the election, because only an act of Congress can change the date. It says the March 2025 elections executive order was largely struck down, and that the Supreme Court blocked the March 2026 order. Britannica (about 3 days before today) dates the Supreme Court block to September and describes the order as limiting mail-in voting. These are advocacy and secondary sources, and I could not open the Protect Democracy page directly. https://protectdemocracy.org/work/frequently-asked-questions-about-the-2026-midterm-elections/ - [2026-02-27] PBS reported on a 17-page draft executive order circulating among Trump allies that would give him extraordinary power over the midterms. Trump said he was not considering declaring a national emergency over the midterms. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/politics/trump-says-hes-not-mulling-a-draft-executive-order-to-seize-control-over-elections-heres-what-we-know - [2026-04-29 to 2026-05-29] This is the one date-related risk I found, and it is in Louisiana. After Louisiana v. Callais (decided Apr 29), Gov. Landry suspended the May 16 and June 27 closed party primaries for U.S. House. On May 29 he signed a new map (SB 121). House races moved to an all-party "jungle" primary on Nov 3, with a runoff on Dec 12 if no candidate gets a majority. Per The Green Papers, polls are open 6am–8pm CST on Nov 3, and 2026 US House filing ran Aug 5–7. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Louisiana and https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/LA - [2026-11-03, scheduled] Louisiana's Nov 3 ballots are accepted in all six districts, and a majority winner there is elected outright. The Dec 12 runoff applies only where no one reaches 50%. A strict reading of the rules could ask whether a Nov 3 "open primary" counts as the "general election". Louisiana's own materials and Wikipedia place the contest on the general-election date. I found no source on how Kalshi will treat this. https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/LA - [2026-08-05] Louisiana House candidate qualifying took place Aug 5–7 under the new districts, so candidates are set for the Nov 3 ballot. https://lailluminator.com/2026/08/05/louisiana-congress-candidates/ (the page returned a 403 when I fetched it; the date and content are from the search snippet) - [2026-09-15] House primaries in all states have concluded. They ran from Mar 3 to Sep 15, 2026. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections - [2026-09-26, approx.] 270toWin counts five districts with no opposition on the ballot: FL-10, MA-02, MA-05, MA-07, WI-02. Under the 10/06 clarification, an unopposed candidate omitted from the ballot under existing state law does not cause a failure. 270toWin also notes LA-02 has no major-party opposition. https://www.270towin.com/2026-house-election-uncontested-races/ - [2026-10-05] Texas law requires unopposed candidates for county, district and statewide office to appear on the ballot (SB 1089, 2023). El Paso Matters describes the Nov 3 ballot as normal. https://elpasomatters.org/2026/10/05/el-paso-texas-2026-general-elections-uncontested-races/ - [2026-10-14] Tennessee early in-person voting began Oct 14 and runs through Oct 29, and Election Day is Nov 3. This is consistent with preparations proceeding on schedule. https://amerdem.mtsu.edu/upcoming_elections/ - [2026-10-09] Cook and other raters published new House ratings for competitive seats between Oct 1 and Oct 9. They treat the Nov 3 election as proceeding normally. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election_ratings BOTTOM LINE: As of Oct 16, no state has moved or cancelled its Nov 3 House general election, and the federal date is fixed by statute. The main resolution risk is Louisiana's jungle-primary format with a Dec 12 runoff, which probably still counts as conducted on time, and a late disruption such as a natural disaster or a new order. NOT FOUND: Any Kalshi or other official statement on how Louisiana's format will be treated. Any court case seeking to postpone the Nov 3 election in any state. Any news from the last 7 days that specifically targets the election date. Primary-source confirmation of the Supreme Court ruling on the March 2026 executive order, since the Protect Democracy page would not open.

- [2026-10-07] Base rate: federal law sets Election Day as the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. For 2026 that is Nov 3. I found no source describing a past national postponement of a federal general election. One source says history has no precedent for postponing a presidential or midterm Election Day for national reasons (a factually.co fact-check dated about a year ago). Elections have run on schedule through the Civil War, the 1918 flu and WWII. I am relying on that source and general knowledge, not on a dataset. https://factually.co/fact-check/politics/can-midterm-elections-be-postponed-0532bc - [2026-10-07] Legal outside view: scholars and advocacy groups say the president cannot cancel or postpone the midterms. Only an act of Congress can move the date. Rick Hasen notes that no federal emergency statute gives a president power over elections. The Brennan Center found that nearly everything the administration tried has been blocked in court, has failed in Congress or has fizzled. https://www.usresistnews.org/2026/10/07/is-trump-trying-to-stop-the-midterms-what-the-record-shows-elections-politics-brief-207/ - [2026-10-07] Tail risk: activists have urged Trump to declare a "national emergency". When asked in August, Trump said "stranger things have happened." One activist told The Atlantic any move would likely come near Election Day. The source says the real risk is "chaos", not cancellation. This is advocacy-sourced, and no emergency declaration has been reported. https://www.usresistnews.org/2026/10/07/is-trump-trying-to-stop-the-midterms-what-the-record-shows-elections-politics-brief-207/ - [2026-10-03] Executive actions so far: a March 2026 executive order on mail voting was blocked by a federal court on June 25 for the plaintiff states. The Supreme Court refused on Sept 14 to revive it. The Joint Chiefs chairman said in August that there are no plans to send troops to polling places. None of this moves the date. https://mitechnews.com/uncategorized/30-days-to-the-midterms-what-power-does-trump-actually-have-over-the-election/ - [2026-07-14] Main state-level risk, Louisiana: after Louisiana v. Callais (decided April 29), the state cancelled its May 16 and June 27 House primaries. It moved House races to a majority-vote ("jungle") election with the first round on Nov 3, and set the filing deadline at Aug 7. The state's secretary of state says any necessary general election runs on Dec 12. Ballots are therefore accepted in all six districts on Nov 3. A Dec 12 runoff does not change that under the contract wording, though a strict reader might dispute it. https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/07/14/louisiana-enacts-20-election-bills-during-2026-session-including-new-congressional-maps-and-voter-id-changes/ - [2026-05-14] Louisiana's Nov 3 House ballot is state law adopted before the market opened on May 27, so it is not a post-issuance change. The secretary of state said the House election "will be held on the Nov. 3, 2026, open primary election ballot." Votes cast in the cancelled May and June House contests are void. https://www.kalb.com/2026/05/14/date-set-louisianas-2026-us-house-races/ - [2026-10] Alabama and the primaries: NCSL lists the Alabama primary for districts 1, 2, 6 and 7 as moved to Aug 11 by order of the governor. This affects primaries only, not the Nov 3 general election. NCSL otherwise lists Nov 3, 2026 as the general election date. https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/2026-state-primary-election-dates - [2026-10-06] Contract clarification: a district whose unopposed House candidate is omitted from the ballot under state law in effect at issuance does not fail "conducted on time". This removes the main uncontested-seat edge case. It excludes contests cancelled by laws or orders adopted after issuance. (This comes from the question text, not a fetched page.) - [2026-10-16] Other markets and forecasts: Kalshi runs a related "Will the midterms happen on time?" market (a search-listing snippet, with no price shown). A laikalabs aggregator page for this contract showed no odds or data. I did not look for this contract's own price. https://kalshi.com/search?q=midterm-election - [2026-10-16] Kalshi's own materials say its markets are well calibrated, with a 70% price happening about 70% of the time. This is a general claim and says nothing about tail-event markets. https://news.kalshi.com/p/kalshi-midterms-hub-launch-2026 - [2026-10-16] Current status: major outlets and state sites (Britannica, Wikipedia, NCSL) all treat Nov 3, 2026 as the general election date. I found no reported plan, bill or order moving Election Day in any state. https://www.britannica.com/event/2026-US-midterm-elections BOTTOM LINE: The reference class is very strong for YES. There has been no national postponement of a federal general election in US history. The president has no legal power to move the date, and the courts have blocked the administration's election executive orders. The residual risks are a post-issuance emergency or state order, which I found no evidence of, and a resolver's reading of Louisiana's jungle-primary system with a Dec 12 runoff. NOT FOUND: a Kalshi or Polymarket price history for this contract (deliberately not sought); a systematic dataset of state-level date changes in past midterms; any expert probability estimate for a postponement; any report of a state moving its Nov 3 House election after May 27.

YES means: all 50 states accept ballots in every House district on Tuesday, Nov 3, 2026, with no state moving or cancelling its general election. - [2026-10-14] State election offices are running ordinary Nov 3 calendars. I fetched South Carolina's Election Commission release: early voting runs Oct 19–31 for the "November 3 Statewide General Election". https://scvotes.gov/make-your-plan-to-vote-early-for-the-november-3-statewide-general-election/ - [2026-10-14] Iowa and Tennessee early voting began Oct 14. Iowa mail ballots must reach county auditors by 8 p.m. on Nov 3, so the Election Day deadline still operates. Texas early voting starts Oct 19 and Election Day polls open 7am–7pm on Nov 3. https://iowacapitaldispatch.com/2026/10/14/what-to-know-as-early-voting-begins-in-iowa-for-2026-general-election/ ; https://www.dallasnews.com/news/elections/article/dates-know-early-voting-2026-midterm-election-22470185.php - [2026-10-16] Ballotpedia's early-voting table lists Nov 3, 2026 as the general election date for every state it shows. It lists Louisiana's House vote as Nov 3, with early voting Oct 20–27. The table was cut off after Minnesota. https://ballotpedia.org/Early_voting_dates,_2026 - [2026-10-08] Louisiana is the only state with a post-baseline format change, and it still accepts ballots on Nov 3. WBRZ reports early voting Oct 20–26 and Election Day Nov 3 under the redrawn map, with ten candidates in the 6th District. The state's runoff date is a separate, later round. https://www.wbrz.com/news/louisiana-s-first-election-with-its-redrawn-map-is-on-nov-3 - [2026-05] This is the Louisiana path to YES. The state's elections page says U.S. Representatives run in an open primary on Nov 3, with an open general election on Dec 12 only "if necessary". Wikipedia says the all-candidate ballot is held "on the date of the general election". The secretary of state's May announcement called it the Nov 3 open-primary ballot. Ballots are accepted in all six districts, and a majority winner is elected outright. I could not open the sos.la.gov page directly, so this is from the search snippet. https://www.sos.la.gov/elections-voting/types-of-elections ; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Louisiana - [2026-05-14] The Louisiana change predates the market's May 27 opening. Landry's April order said the new schedule was meant to "conduct the November 3, 2026 election". Louisiana therefore kept Nov 3 rather than moving the date. https://www.scotusblog.com/2026/04/after-major-voting-rights-ruling-parties-dispute-whether-the-court-should-finalize-decision-imme/ - [Statute] The federal date is fixed by 2 U.S.C. §7. The Congressional Research Service says the Supreme Court treats it as a mandatory date. CRS says that, absent exigent circumstances, a state may not hold the election at another time. Only a late exigency such as a disaster would create a postponement path. https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/RL32623.html - [2026-10-14] Voting-calendar sites count down to Nov 3 with no sign of change. Voteclock.org said 20 days remained as of Oct 14. https://voteclock.org/midterm-election-countdown - [2026-10-06] Under the contract clarification, unopposed candidates omitted from the ballot under existing law do not cause failure. The uncontested-seat edge case is therefore closed, apart from contests cancelled by new laws or orders. BOTTOM LINE: Every state is mid-preparation for Nov 3 under statute, early voting is already underway in many states, and the one altered format (Louisiana) still takes ballots on Nov 3 in all six districts. The most likely route to YES is that nothing changes in the next 18 days and Kalshi reads Louisiana's Nov 3 open primary as its general election. NOT FOUND: A Kalshi ruling on Louisiana's format. Any post-May 27 state order or court order moving a House election. Any federal move to shift the date. A readable sos.la.gov page. A full state-by-state date check beyond the Ballotpedia table.

YES means: the regular House general election is held on Nov 3, 2026, with ballots accepted that day in every district of all 50 states. NO means at least one state has a district where no ballots are lawfully accepted on Nov 3. - [2026-10-16] NCSL (fetched page, last updated May 27) labels Louisiana's Nov 3 House contest a "primary election". It labels the Dec 12 contest the "general election" under HB 842. This is a state-law label, and a literal reader could say Louisiana's "general election" for the House is Dec 12, not Nov 3. This is the strongest technicality for NO. The same NCSL table lists Nov 3 as the general election date for the Louisiana Senate race, which makes the contrast sharper. https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/2026-state-primary-election-dates - [2026-10-16] The FEC's 2026 dates sheet (search snippet, not fetched) says Louisiana House elections "have been postponed" to Nov 3 after Callais. The Green Papers (fetched) calls Nov 3 an "Open Primary / Congressional" date and Dec 12 a "General Election Runoff (US House)". The Louisiana Secretary of State's page (snippet only, 403 on fetch) says the Dec 12 contest is "an open general election". It also says a contest with no majority winner goes to a runoff "called a general election". So the state's own taxonomy supports "primary Nov 3, general Dec 12". https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/2026pdates.pdf - [2026-10-16] The contract excludes "primary elections" from the regularly scheduled general election, and it voids any election "held on a date other than" Election Day. In any LA district where no one wins a majority, the deciding election is held Dec 12. The resolver must treat Nov 3 as the general election for the contract to hold. The Oct 6 clarification addressed only unopposed candidates and did not address Louisiana. The May 27 market opening postdates the Louisiana law, which narrows the "post-issuance" argument. It does not settle how the resolver reads "general". Source: https://www.sos.la.gov/elections-voting/types-of-elections (snippet only). - [2026-10-16] Green Papers (fetched) lists Louisiana's Nov 3 House field as 4 candidates in LA-1, 5 in LA-2, 6 in LA-3, 5 in LA-4, 9 in LA-5 and 10 in LA-6. LA-5 and LA-6 are open seats with large Republican fields (LA-6 incumbent Fields is not running). Majorities are unlikely there, so the Dec 12 runoff is likely in at least those two districts. That makes the Louisiana technicality a live scenario, not a hypothetical. https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/LA - [2026-10-02] The Hill reported (snippet only; page unreachable) that Trump refused to rule out the Insurrection Act or a national emergency for the midterms. Mandatory/CNN dated his "stranger things have happened" remark about a national security emergency to about Aug 13 and said the July 16 address focused on China. Ty Cobb called that address a possible "predicate" for an emergency declaration. None of this moves the date. It does show the tail-risk narrative is current as of mid-October. https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/6122559-trump-midterm-election-insurrection-act/ - [2026-08-31] Gateway Pundit (partisan blog; the underlying Federal Register notice is unverified here) says Trump continued the 2018 foreign-election-interference national emergency (EO 13848) for another year. This is a routine annual renewal and has no date effect. It does mean an emergency framework already exists, which activists could cite. https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2026/09/president-trump-order-extending-national-security-emergency-order/ - [2026-01 update] The NASS emergency-elections report says Louisiana, Florida, Georgia and Kentucky let governors or officials delay elections in a declared emergency. The Georgia delay can last up to 45 days. Louisiana's governor may suspend an election once the Secretary of State certifies an emergency. Louisiana used this power in 2021 (Hurricane Ida, state and local elections). Gov. Landry already suspended House primaries by executive order on Apr 30. A hurricane or other disaster in late Oct to Nov 3 could cancel a state's election in a district. The statutory mechanism exists and has been used this year in Louisiana. https://www.nass.org/sites/default/files/reports/updated-report-election-administration-emergencies-jan2026.pdf - [2026-10-08, approx.] A Fort Myers News-Press/Yahoo item reports Tropical Storm Isaias: first hurricane of the 2026 season, with 27 Florida counties under a state of emergency. The "8 days ago" age tag looks unreliable, and Isaias is also a 2020 storm name, so treat this as unverified. Florida's governor can delay an election in an emergency, with a vote within 10 days. A Gulf storm before Nov 3 would be the most plausible route to a one-district delay. Brennan Center notes Hurricane Michael, 27 days before Nov 2018, led to polling-place consolidation, not postponement. Postponement has not been the response so far. https://www.wtsp.com/article/news/regional/florida/desantis-state-of-emergency-florida-tropics-hurricane-isaias/67-0cbae952-4bfd-45d0-b325-63752956c00c - [2026-10-16] Status quo cuts both ways. The default outcome is that Nov 3 happens everywhere. Alabama's governor already postponed the Aug 11 primary for four districts, and Louisiana's House calendar was rewritten after Callais. Two state-level calendar overrides this year show that post-ruling and emergency changes are the realistic NO pathway. Both were before May 27 and are priced into the contract's baseline. https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/2026-state-primary-election-dates BOTTOM LINE: The best NO case is mostly a resolution-wording argument. Louisiana's own legal calendar calls Nov 3 a House "primary" and Dec 12 the "general", and the contract voids primaries and any date other than Election Day. Outside that, NO needs a late disaster or an unprecedented federal or state order cancelling a whole district's Nov 3 voting. I found no sign of either as of Oct 16. NOT FOUND: Any Kalshi statement or precedent on Louisiana's format. Any confirmed postponement of a Nov 3 House election in any state or district. A fetchable primary copy of the Louisiana Secretary of State page or the Hill article. Confirmation of the Isaias storm's date and landfall. Any court order or bill moving the Nov 3 date.