Will Wyoming’s total coal production for calendar year 2026 be above 220 MMst?

- [2026-10-15] EIA weekly data for the week ended Oct 10 put Wyoming at 4.015 MMst, the largest state. US year-to-date output was 402.8 MMst, down 2.0% year on year. The Western region was 212.1 MMst year to date, down 4.3%. A Wyoming year-to-date figure was not in the sources I could read. https://www.indexbox.io/blog/us-weekly-coal-output-falls-to-10009-thousand-short-tons/ - [2026-09-26] Wyoming weekly output was 4.095 MMst. In the week ended Sep 12 it was 4.019 MMst, against 4.371 MMst a year earlier. Recent weeks run roughly 4.0–4.2 MMst, about 3–8% below the 2025 comparison weeks. https://www.indexbox.io/blog/us-weekly-coal-output-edges-higher-but-year-to-date-total-trails-2025/ and https://www.indexbox.io/blog/us-weekly-coal-output-falls-to-9816-thousand-short-tons/ - [2026-10-01] The UW CREW October report cites MSHA-based preliminary data. Q2 2026 Wyoming output was 51,960,230 st, up 14.29% year on year. August 2026 was 19,339,416 st, with early estimates down 1.29% year on year. Per CREW, production is slightly above the pace of the January 2026 state revenue forecast (CREG) of 190 MMst for 2026. https://www.uwyo.edu/ser/research/centers-of-excellence/energy-regulation-policy/_files/crew-report-october-2026.pdf - [2026-07] EIA's Quarterly Coal Report for Q1 2026 shows Wyoming at 52,382 thousand st (+4.2% vs Q1 2025's 50,269). Q4 2025 was 53,970. Q1 plus Q2 2026 gives about 104.3 MMst for H1. https://www.eia.gov/coal/production/quarterly/pdf/qcr-all.pdf - [2026-10-01] EIA published the Quarterly Coal Report for Q2 2026 on Oct 1. The Q3 report is not yet out. The full-year 2026 data would first appear in the Q4 2026 report, probably in early 2027 (that timing is my inference). https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=69&t=2 - [2026-10-15] EIA's weekly page notes that its estimates now include MSHA data through Q2 2026. EIA's annual state figures show Wyoming at 190.7 MMst in 2024 and 237.3 MMst in 2023. I could not read a 2025 annual figure. https://www.eia.gov/coal/production/weekly/ - [2026-04-11] Wyoming year to date was 59.143 MMst, up 5.3% year on year. This was before the later softening. https://thecoalhub.com/us-coal-production-weekly-update-week-ending-april-11/ - [2026-07-18] Wyoming weekly output was 4.065 MMst, against 4.436 MMst a year earlier. https://www.indexbox.io/blog/us-weekly-coal-production-rises-to-963-million-short-tons-in-mid-july-2026/ - [2026-08-27] Wood Mackenzie forecasts Powder River Basin (PRB) output falling 20 MMst to 208 MMst in 2026. The PRB includes some Montana output; Wyoming is about 97% of it. https://www.woodmac.com/reports/coal-powder-river-basin-coal-supply-summary-15940056 - [2026-02] A Wyoming coal study (EVA/WWC) expects Wyoming PRB output sustained at 185–200 MMst per year through 2030. https://wyoenergy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Wyoming-Coal-Study-Final-Report-Public.pdf - [2026-10-15] My own rough run-rate arithmetic, not a sourced figure: H1 of about 104.3 MMst, plus roughly 4.0–4.1 MMst per week for the remaining 26 weeks, gives about 208–212 MMst for 2026. That is below 220. Reaching 220 would need Q3 plus Q4 of about 116 MMst, or roughly 4.5 MMst per week, which is above any recent weekly print. BOTTOM LINE: Wyoming is on pace for roughly 205–215 MMst in 2026. Recent weekly prints of about 4.0 MMst are running below 2025, and Wood Mackenzie's PRB forecast of 208 MMst is consistent with that, so 220 would take a sharp Q4 acceleration. The resolution source, the Q4 2026 Quarterly Coal Report, is not expected before 2027. NOT FOUND: Wyoming's exact 2026 year-to-date total from EIA's weekly table (the page fetched was a stale or partial render). EIA's 2025 Wyoming annual total. Q3 2026 MSHA data (not yet released). A current EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) figure for Wyoming.

- [2026-04 (QCR Q4 2025)] EIA's Quarterly Coal Report puts Wyoming's 2025 production at 211,680 thousand short tons (211.7 MMst), up 11.0% from 190,731 in 2024. Its Q3 2025 figure was 56,708 and its Q4 2025 figure was 53,970. A 2026 figure above 220 MMst would need about +3.9% on 2025. https://www.eia.gov/coal/production/quarterly/archive/012125q4.pdf - [2026-10-15] EIA's weekly table (fetched) lists annual Wyoming production of 190,731 in 2024, 237,261 in 2023 and 244,730 in 2022. The 2021 figure was 239 MMst, and the 2008 peak was 466 MMst. The long decline is only interrupted by 2021, 2022 and 2025. https://www.eia.gov/coal/production/weekly/ - [2026-10-15] Base rate: Wyoming has not exceeded 220 MMst since 2023 (237) and 2022 (245). It was above 220 in 2021 to 2023 and below it in 2024 and 2025. The long-run trend is down, and the 2025 rebound reached only 211.7. https://www.eia.gov/coal/production/weekly/ - [2026-10-15] Weekly EIA data for the week ended Oct 10, 2026, as reported by IndexBox, shows U.S. YTD production at 402.8 MMst, down 2.0% YoY. The Western region is at 212.1 MMst YTD, down 4.3%. Wyoming's latest week was 4.015 MMst; its YTD figure was not in the page I fetched. At about 4.0 MMst per week, 52 weeks is roughly 208 MMst. That is a rough extrapolation, not a reported number. https://www.indexbox.io/blog/us-weekly-coal-output-falls-to-10009-thousand-short-tons/ - [2026-04-13] Early in the year Wyoming was running ahead. YTD through Apr 11 was 59.1 MMst, up 5.3% YoY, and through Apr 4 it was 54.95, up 4.4%. The weekly series is estimated and later revised with MSHA data. https://thecoalhub.com/us-coal-production-weekly-update-week-ending-april-11/ - [2026-07-23] By mid-July the Western region had slowed. Wyoming's week ending Jul 18 was 4.065 MMst against 4.436 a year earlier, and national YTD was down 2.3%. https://www.indexbox.io/blog/us-weekly-coal-production-rises-to-963-million-short-tons-in-mid-july-2026/ - [2026-10-01] The UW CREW October report gives MSHA-based Wyoming production: Q2 2026 was 51.96 MMst against 45.46 a year earlier (+14.3%), though the Q2 2025 baseline is probably unrevised. Monthly figures are Mar 18.14, Apr 17.22, May 17.59 and Jun 17.14 MMst. August 2026 was 19.34 against 19.59 in 2025 (-1.3%). CREW says YTD is slightly above its 190 MMst forecast, which looks stale against the 211.7 outturn for 2025. https://www.uwyo.edu/ser/research/centers-of-excellence/energy-regulation-policy/_files/crew-report-october-2026.pdf - [2026-07-xx] EIA's July 2026 STEO forecasts U.S. coal production falling 17 MMst in 2026 and a further 4% in 2027. The June STEO had 518 MMst for the U.S. in 2026, down 2%, with the largest declines in Appalachia. The STEO as quoted gives no Wyoming figure. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/Jul26.pdf - [2026-10-13] Demand backdrop: the June STEO expected coal generation down 2% in summer 2026. Wyoming's April-to-August monthly output ran at 15-19 MMst, with seasonal highs in Q3. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/Jun26.pdf - [2026-02-24] The Wyoming Coal Study says output fell from 466 MMst in 2008 to 191 in 2024. Its "business as usual" case sees continued decline, and only a coal-favorable scenario holds or raises production. https://k2radio.com/future-of-coal-wyoming/ - [2026-02-24] The CREG (UW) January 2026 forecast for Wyoming 2026 is 190 MMst. That is far below 220 and looks stale given 2025 came in at 211.7. https://www.uwyo.edu/ser/research/centers-of-excellence/energy-regulation-policy/_files/crew-report-october-2026.pdf - [2026-10-15] Resolution mechanics: the source is Table 2 of the first QCR with full-year 2026 data (Q4 2026 report, expected around April 2027). Table 2 gives Wyoming in thousand short tons, and the contract divides by 1,000. Later revisions do not count. The Q4 2025 report was dated April 2026, which fits the trading close of 2027-04-01 only if the release comes by then. https://www.eia.gov/coal/production/quarterly/archive/012125q4.pdf BOTTOM LINE: Wyoming's 2025 total was 211.7 MMst. 2026 is tracking flat to slightly lower: the Western region is down 4.3% YTD, Wyoming's weekly rate is about 4.0 MMst, and the early-year gains have faded. Reaching more than 220 would need roughly +4% on 2025, which is not what the weekly data shows. The historical trend is downward, though MSHA revisions (the Q2 2026 data above was strong) add uncertainty. NOT FOUND: Wyoming's 2026 YTD total from the EIA weekly table. A Wyoming-specific EIA STEO forecast for 2026. Any other prediction-market or analyst forecast for Wyoming's 2026 total. The QCR release date for Q4 2026.

YES means: EIA's first Quarterly Coal Report with full-year 2026 data (Table 2) shows Wyoming above 220,000 thousand short tons, i.e. more than 220 MMst. This is the strongest YES case I could build. It needs a Q3 and Q4 well above the recent weekly pace. - [2026-10-15] The EIA weekly page says its revised weekly estimates now include MSHA data through Q2 2026. The page's annual table shows 190.7 MMst for 2024, 237.3 for 2023 and 244.7 for 2022. This means the state-level "revised" series is anchored to MSHA only through June. July–October weekly figures of about 4.0 MMst are still unrevised EIA model estimates. Those estimates could be revised up when Q3 MSHA data arrive. https://www.eia.gov/coal/production/weekly/ - [2026-10-01] The CREW October report gives August 2026 Wyoming output as 19.34 MMst, down 1.29% on August 2025. That is about 4.4 MMst per week, which is above the roughly 4.0–4.1 MMst weekly prints colleagues cited. It suggests the weekly series may understate monthly MSHA-based output. The August figure is described as an "early estimate", so it is not final. https://www.uwyo.edu/ser/research/centers-of-excellence/energy-regulation-policy/_files/crew-report-october-2026.pdf - [2026-10-15] Arithmetic for the YES path. Colleagues' H1 figure is about 104.3 MMst. If Q3 repeats August's pace, it is about 58 MMst, which is above Q3 2025's 56.7 per the base-rate report. Q4 would then need about 57.7 MMst, or about 4.4 MMst per week. That is about 7% above Q4 2025's 54.0 (figures from the base-rate report). This is my own arithmetic, not a sourced forecast. It shows 220 requires Q3 near 58 and Q4 near 58, not a miracle, but it is above current weekly prints. https://www.uwyo.edu/ser/research/centers-of-excellence/energy-regulation-policy/_files/crew-report-october-2026.pdf - [2026-10-06] The EIA October 2026 STEO puts 2026 U.S. coal output at 521.4 MMst, up about 1% from the previous month's estimate. Western region production is down 3.78% in the same summary. Upward revisions to the national forecast show late-2026 data coming in stronger than EIA expected. A Western decline of 3.8% off a 2025 Wyoming base of 211.7 would still give about 204, so this is support for the pace rather than for 220. https://apbi-icma.org/media-article/us-coal-output-to-fall-in-2026-2027-as-gas-displaces-coal-eia-says - [2026-10-xx] The October STEO says the hot summer drew utility coal stocks down to an estimated 100 MMst at the end of September, from 105 MMst a year earlier. Lower stocks mean utilities need to rebuild inventory. That supports Q4 PRB orders. The same STEO expects stocks to stay steady at about 106 MMst through winter, and it expects milder weather. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf - [2026-07-29] Peabody's Q2 2026 8-K raised its PRB cost guidance by $0.25 per ton, citing "lower first-half shipments". That is a bearish point. It also implies the second half is expected to be heavier. Peabody is about 41% of PRB output. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001064728/000106472826000038/btu8k20260729ex991.htm - [2026-05-05] Peabody's Q1 2026 PRB tons sold were 21.2 MMst, against 19.6 MMst in Q1 2025. Peabody's PRB volume is a large share of the basin's output. It was up year on year in Q1, which fits Q1 2026 Wyoming at +4.2% (per the July Quarterly Coal Report cited above). https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1064728/000106472826000022/btu8k20260505ex991.htm - [2026-02-06] Peabody's Q4 2025 release credits higher gas prices, data-centre demand and policy support for 85 MMst from its PRB mines in 2025. It also names the National Coal Council role as a push to expand coal generation. This is the policy tailwind behind the 2025 rebound. If it continues into winter, it supports a strong Q4. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1064728/000106472826000002/btu8k20260206ex991.htm - [2026-08-12] Late-2026 demand risk cuts both ways. EIA's August STEO says global gas-to-coal switching lifted U.S. steam coal exports in Q2 2026, and it raised the 2026 export forecast to 102 MMst. PRB export volume is small (Wood Mackenzie puts it at 12.5 MMst, mostly Montana mines). https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press591.php - [2026-10-01] The CREW report's March–June monthly MSHA figures (18.14, 17.22, 17.59, 17.14) average about 17.5 MMst. August at 19.34 would be well above that. If July and September are also near 19 MMst, Q3 reaches about 57–58 MMst. Q3 2025 was 56.7 per the base-rate report. https://www.uwyo.edu/ser/research/centers-of-excellence/energy-regulation-policy/_files/crew-report-october-2026.pdf BOTTOM LINE: The single most likely YES path is Q3 MSHA data confirming about 58 MMst, as August's 19.3 MMst suggests, and Q4 then running about 7% above Q4 2025 at roughly 58 MMst. That would come from restocking after the hot summer, coal-supportive policy and continued data-centre demand. Nothing sourced shows Q4 demand strong enough for this, and the weekly, Wood Mackenzie and STEO Western-region figures all point to about 205–212. NOT FOUND: Wyoming-specific July or September 2026 MSHA monthly output. Wyoming's year-to-date total from the EIA weekly table (the page fetched showed only the annual table). Any Q4 2026 PRB guidance from Peabody, Core or NTEC. A Wyoming-specific STEO figure. The Q4 2026 Quarterly Coal Report release date.

YES means: EIA's first Quarterly Coal Report with full-year 2026 data (Table 2) shows Wyoming 2026 coal production above 220,000 thousand short tons (above 220 MMst). - [2026-10-15] EIA's weekly release dated Oct 15 puts total U.S. output for the week ended Oct 10 at 2.5% below the same week of 2025. The page's own bullets also show West-of-Mississippi output at only 5.6 MMst that week. Wyoming is the dominant western state, so the year-on-year gap is still open in October. This is the latest EIA print and has not flipped to growth. https://www.eia.gov/coal/production/weekly/ - [2026-08-06] Core Natural Resources (Black Thunder, the second-largest PRB mine) reported Q2 2026 PRB sales of 10.2 MMst. That compares with 12.6 MMst in Q2 2025 and 11.9 MMst in Q1 2026, about 19% lower year on year. Core cited moderate temperatures, low gas prices and inflated customer stockpiles. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001710366/000171036626000053/cnrq22026er-exhibit991.htm - [2026-08-06] Core's H1 PRB sales were about 22.1 MMst against 2026 guidance of 47–50 MMst. Its H2 would need to be about 25–28 MMst, and management only says it "expects" a substantial H2 improvement. The 50.3 MMst "committed, priced" figure is the book of business and does not guarantee output. Core's whole-year guidance sits below its 2025 run-rate (Q2 2025 12.6, Q4 2025 12.6 MMst per quarter), so even delivering the guidance does not lift Black Thunder. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001710366/000171036626000053/cnrq22026er-exhibit992.htm - [2026-10-01] Mismatch worth flagging: the CREW Q2 +14.3% MSHA figure for Wyoming conflicts with Core's -19% PRB sales and with EIA weekly prints that were below 2025 in Q2/Q3. The Q2 2025 baseline in CREW is probably unrevised. Late-2025 revisions raised 2025 to 211.7, so the Q2 2026 "gain" may be a baseline artifact, not a trend. The CREW October report also uses the phrase "remains below the pace" in one passage, and the Aug 2026 estimate is -1.29% year on year. https://www.uwyo.edu/ser/research/centers-of-excellence/energy-regulation-policy/_files/crew-report-october-2026.pdf - [2026-08-27] Wood Mackenzie's PRB supply summary headline says 2026 PRB output will be "less than 210 Mst" as demand eases from 2025 highs. A separate listing for the same Aug 27 report says it falls 20 Mst to 208 Mst. Wyoming is about 97% of the PRB and the Green River Basin adds only about 3 MMst, so this implies Wyoming of roughly 205–210 MMst. Its drivers are low gas prices, retirements and stockpiles. https://www.woodmac.com/reports/coal-arch-resources-powder-river-basin-coal-mines-16483298/ - [2026-08-27] The same Wood Mackenzie report says data-centre load growth and Trump administration policy "may slow the decline". That wording is slowing a decline, not reversing it. Its forecast PRB drop of 20 Mst is itself a 2025 baseline of about 228 Mst, which is higher than Wyoming's 211.7. The overstated baseline implies the PRB forecast may be lower still on a like-for-like Wyoming basis. https://www.woodmac.com/reports/coal-powder-river-basin-coal-supply-summary-15940056 - [2026-10-15] Deadline arithmetic from a fetched EIA page: the Q4 2025 QCR was released Apr 1, 2026, and EIA's schedule lists the QCR for "middle of the fourth month following the end of the quarter". The Q4 2026 report could therefore land about mid-April 2027, after the 2027-04-01 trading close. Release dates "may shift". If the source report is not out by the deadline, the market could not resolve on the stated source. The Q2 2025 report was released Nov 3, 2025, so slippage has happened before. https://www.eia.gov/reports/upcoming.php and https://www.eia.gov/about/new/?r=90 - [2026-10-15] Rebound history: Wyoming got above 220 only in 2021–23. The 2025 rebound to 211.7 was driven by a gas-price and stockpile-drawdown year and still came in below 220. A 2026 stockpile overhang (Core, Q2) works against repeating it. The Wyoming Coal Study (Feb 2026) frames every mine as scaled back to match demand, so there is no capacity push to 220+. https://wyoenergy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Wyoming-Coal-Study-Final-Report-Public.pdf - [2026-10-15] Weekly-data limits: EIA's weekly series is MSHA-adjusted only through Q2 2026, and the weekly tables prorate production daily. Upward MSHA revisions could still push the final number above weekly estimates, so the weekly extrapolation (~208 MMst) is not exact. Even so, a +12 MMst upside revision on H2 would be larger than anything shown in the Q1→Q2 revision pattern. Resolution uses the first QCR figure, and later revisions do not count. https://www.eia.gov/coal/production/weekly/ - [2026-04-13] Strong early-year prints were a Q1 phenomenon: Wyoming YTD was +5.3% at Apr 11 and +3.9% by Jun 6 (IndexBox), versus a Western region that turned to -4.3% by Oct 10 per the colleagues' report. The YTD growth has been shrinking steadily. That is the typical pattern of fading, not accelerating, production. https://www.indexbox.io/blog/us-coal-output-rises-week-over-week-but-remains-below-year-ago-levels/ BOTTOM LINE: The No case is strong. Late-2026 prints are below 2025, Core's PRB shipments fell about 19% in Q2, Wood Mackenzie projects roughly 205–210 MMst, and Q3+Q4 would need to be near 116 MMst. Resolution also hinges on a Q4 2026 QCR that may not be published by the Apr 1, 2027 close. NOT FOUND: Wyoming's 2026 YTD figure from EIA's weekly table (the rendered page was stale, with only 2016–2018 annual figures visible). Peabody's Q2 2026 PRB results (search failed). Any Q4 2026 QCR release date. Q3 2026 MSHA data.