Felix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch?

- [2026-10-15] I found no official Felix announcement of a token launch, TGE date, tokenomics or supply. The only evidence of a launch is the points program and the Polymarket markets. https://financefeeds.com/felix-faces-coin-flip-odds-on-its-token-launch/ - [2026-10-15] Resolution mechanics, from the Polymarket rules page (rendered). The market resolves No if no token is publicly tradable by 2026-12-31 11:59 PM ET. FDV is total supply × price, measured at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after launch, using the most liquid price source. https://polymarket.com/event/felix-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch - [2026-10-15] The Polymarket FDV event page shows the market's end date as Dec 31, 2026. It shows $380.7K total volume across 10 strikes ($5M to $2B), with the $25M strike at about $106K volume. The page says it was opened Jul 7, 2026, which conflicts with the Nov 27, 2025 open date in the question. Likely a re-listing; I did not use any prices. https://polymarket.com/event/felix-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch - [2026-06-10] FinanceFeeds reported that Felix had not disclosed any token plans (as of March 2026). It said Season 2 of the points program began in January 2026, after Season 1 in April 2025. It also said Felix has over $800K in cumulative revenue and no disclosed external funding. https://financefeeds.com/felix-faces-coin-flip-odds-on-its-token-launch/ - [2026-06-10] FinanceFeeds cited Polymarket's launch-by-2026 market at about 50%, and the $25M FDV strike at about 60%, then. Both figures are stale and are a third-party report, not primary data. https://financefeeds.com/felix-faces-coin-flip-odds-on-its-token-launch/ - [2026-09-17 / 2026-10-01] Polymarket snapshots showed the $25M strike at 13–16% (snapshot figures, not live). Volume was about $364K–365K. https://polymarket.com/event/felix-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch - [Date unknown; the search tool dated it "87 days ago", roughly July 2026] Sibling strikes ($50M and $100M) were priced at about 23% and 13% on the aggregator wouldyoubet.com. Volume was about $40K each. https://wouldyoubet.com/markets/crypto/felix-protocol-fdv-above-50m-one-day-after-launch-488/ - [2026-08-15] Per Messari, Felix published updated documentation covering its CDP market, lending pools and tokenized-equity trading. It makes no token mention. Messari's page also lists feUSD (the stablecoin, not a governance token) at about $1.00. https://messari.io/project/felix-feusd - [~2026-03] Felix launched tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs on HyperEVM via Ondo. Reported TVL was about $167M, making it the fifth-largest app on Hyperliquid. https://phemex.com/news/article/felix-protocol-launches-tokenized-us-stocks-and-etfs-on-hyperliquid-69329 - [2025-10-29] Hyperion DeFi (Nasdaq: HYPD) announced a partnership for Felix to run HIP-3 perps. The release says Felix crossed $1B TVL in September 2025. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1682639/000110465925104662/tm2529890d1_ex99-1.htm - [2024-10, per a secondary source] Felix reportedly secured the FELIX ticker in a Hyperliquid auction. https://x.com/SKYGG_Official/status/1891835163941933230 - [2026-10-15] No token has launched. Third-party airdrop trackers still label the points program "active, pre-TGE" and say nothing is confirmed. https://airdropalert.com/airdrops/felix-protocol/ BOTTOM LINE: As of 2026-10-15 there is no confirmed token, date or supply, and about 11 weeks remain before the Dec 31 launch deadline. Resolving Yes requires a launch within that window and then a day-1 FDV above $25M. Felix's TVL is large, which supports a high valuation if it launches. NOT FOUND: an official Felix or Felix-team X post announcing a TGE, tokenomics or supply; any news from the last 7–14 days specific to Felix's token; a live FELIX price or FDV (no token is trading); the live launch-by-2026 market price.

- [2026-06-10] FinanceFeeds, citing Polymarket, says the sibling market "Felix token launch by 31 Dec 2026" traded near 50%. The same piece says this FDV market's $25M strike was at ~60% and the $50M strike near 50%, on $218k volume. These are stale prices from June, and the article calls the 50% a possible artifact of thin trading. https://financefeeds.com/felix-faces-coin-flip-odds-on-its-token-launch/ - [2026-06-10] The same article says Felix had disclosed no token plans as of March 2026. It runs a points programme (Season 1 from April 2025, Season 2 from January 2026) and reports about $800k cumulative revenue and no disclosed funding round. https://financefeeds.com/felix-faces-coin-flip-odds-on-its-token-launch/ (The "no funding" claim conflicts with CandyDrops, below, which reports a seed round.) - [2026-03] CoinLaunch: Felix had not disclosed any native token plans as of March 2026. It lists risks including weak DeFi-token sentiment and no confirmed launch. https://coinlaunch.space/projects/felix-protocol/ - [2026 (undated)] CandyDrops reports a June 2025 seed round from Hash3 and Tioga Capital (amount undisclosed). It also reports TVL above $1B in September 2025. https://candydrops.xyz/en/projects/felix-protocol - [2025-10-29] A Hyperion DeFi (NASDAQ: HYPD) press release confirms Felix crossed $1B TVL in September 2025. Hyperion is providing 500k HYPE for a Felix HIP-3 perps market, with a "Felix Exchange" build-out planned. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1682639/000110465925104662/tm2529890d1_ex99-1.htm - [2025-02 research, via X] Felix reportedly won the FELIX ticker in a Hyperliquid auction in October 2024. The article expects an airdrop, and says the token may work like Liquity's LQTY (fee share). https://x.com/SKYGG_Official/status/1891835163941933230 - [2026-03 / 2026-04] Felix is described as the fifth-largest Hyperliquid DeFi app, with about $167M TVL. It launched tokenised US stocks through Ondo, with 250+ equities. https://phemex.com/news/article/felix-protocol-launches-tokenized-us-stocks-and-etfs-on-hyperliquid-69329 - [2026-10-14] Market backdrop is favourable for Hyperliquid-ecosystem tokens. HYPE is about $80–83, roughly 15–18% below its September 2026 record of about $98, and buybacks exceed $1.26B. https://247wallst.com/investing/cryptocurrency/2026/10/14/hyperliquid-has-bought-back-1-26-billion-of-its-own-token-ethereum-burns-its-fees-instead-which-one-holds-its-price-better/ - [2026-09-17] Sibling Polymarket "FDV one day after launch" markets show how traders price this format. Extended (a Hyperliquid-adjacent perp DEX) had $150M at 76%, $300M at 37%, $500M at 18% and $1B at 5%. These are conditional on launch by 31 Dec 2026. https://polymarket.com/event/extended-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch - [2026-09-09] Polymarket's $LAPTOP FDV market shows launch-day FDV can spike and then crash. $LAPTOP peaked near a $144B FDV, then fell over 90% within an hour, and its day-1 FDV settled below $1B. https://polymarket.com/event/laptop-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch - [2026 (undated snapshot)] A Backpack market page lists "Felix FDV above $5M" at about 53%, a lower strike on the same event. https://polymarket.com/event/backpack-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch - [2026-10-15] No Felix TGE announcement, date or tokenomics turned up in this research. The Felix Polymarket page did not render (returned "Page not found" at the guessed URL). BOTTOM LINE: Resolution requires a token launch by 31 Dec 2026, and nothing found shows the team has committed to one. The only evidence is a points programme, a reserved ticker, and a June 2026 market at about 50% for a launch. If it does launch, $25M is a low bar for a protocol that reached $1B TVL, and comparable Hyperliquid-ecosystem day-1 FDVs are typically far above it. The launch timing is therefore the main uncertainty, not the valuation. NOT FOUND: any official Felix token or TGE announcement; the current live prices of this market and its siblings; the Felix launch-by-2026 market page; historical resolution statistics for Polymarket "FDV one day after launch" markets.

YES means: Felix launches a publicly tradable token by 2026-12-31 11:59 PM ET, and its total supply × price (FDV) exceeds $25M at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after launch. I found no official Felix announcement of a token, TGE date or tokenomics. Everything below is the case for YES. The core of it is that a $25M day-1 FDV is a low bar if a token launches. The open question is whether it launches in time. - [2026-06-10] Felix's own founder (0xBroze) said the shutdown of its HIP-3 perps platform on 2026-06-19 happened partly because "we weren't TradeXYZ." He cited the "airdrop hint": TradeXYZ's expected token (it won the UNIT ticker) fed a user flywheel. The shutdown cut Felix's burn and focus. It also shows the team understands how much a token matters for attracting users. Felix's reserved ticker and points programme are the same setup. The post-mortem reads as strategic reflection, not a statement of token intent. https://www.kucoin.com/news/flash/felix-first-hip-3-platform-on-hyperliquid-announces-shutdown - [2026-06-10] The same piece says the platform generated about $3B of OIL/GOLD/SILVER volume in Dec 2025–Jan 2026. It also says Felix is capital-constrained: the founder cites "limited funds" against TradeXYZ's balance sheet. Treasury pressure is a standard motive to launch a token, since it funds operations and gives the team liquidity. https://www.kucoin.com/news/flash/felix-first-hip-3-platform-on-hyperliquid-announces-shutdown - [2026-07 snapshot, CoinStats, 106 days old] Felix TVL was about $360M, versus Kinetiq's $1.6B and Hyperbeat's $286M. That puts it among the top Hyperliquid DeFi apps. https://coinstats.app/ai/a/investment-analysis-hyperliquid - [2026-11-27 launch, per the Defiant (published ~2025-11)] This is the closest comparable. Kinetiq (KNTQ) launched directly on Hyperliquid spot and traded at about $0.13, a roughly $130M FDV, in its first 24 hours. Its TVL was about $1.1B. That is about 0.12 FDV/TVL. Applying the same ratio to Felix's roughly $360M TVL gives about $43M. It would clear $25M even after a lower multiple. https://thedefiant.io/news/defi/hyperliquid-based-kinetiq-s-kntq-token-trades-at-usd130-million-valuation - [2026-08 snapshot, CoinGecko, 82 days old] KNTQ later sat at a $351M FDV on $1.03B TVL, about 0.34 FDV/TVL. This shows how large the FDV/TVL premium on Hyperliquid DeFi tokens can be. https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/kinetiq - [2026-10 (kPoints claim, 2026-10-01 to 10-10)] KNTQ holders could buy at a fixed $0.26. That is double the $0.13 day-1 price. It indicates the Hyperliquid DeFi token market stayed bid, so a Felix launch would not face a collapsed sector. https://coinmarketcap.com/cmc-ai/kinetiq/latest-updates/ - [2026-10-14] Hyperliquid tokenised-equity competition is intensifying: EQX Labs announced 11 spot markets that day. The same report credits Felix with launching Ondo-backed equities in March, ahead of competitors. Ongoing activity keeps a relaunch or token narrative alive. https://www.kucoin.com/news/flash/eqx-labs-to-launch-tokenized-us-stocks-on-hyperliquid-69329 - [2025-10-29] The Hyperion DeFi press release gives the co-founder (Charlie Ambrose) saying the vision is to scale Felix to the size of traditional markets. It states the HYPE collateral is meant to build out "Felix Exchange." The roadmap is token-ready. https://ir.hyperiondefi.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/290/hyperion-defi-announces-strategic-partnership-with-felix-to-launch-hip-3-powered-perpetual-futures-market - [2026 (undated), CandyDrops] A June 2025 seed round from Hash3 and Tioga is reported, amount undisclosed. Investors usually expect a token event. https://candydrops.xyz/en/projects/felix-protocol - [2026-10-15] Every aggregator reports the points programme as still "active" with distribution "TBA" and a "post-TGE airdrop." The programme is still running. Season 2 began in January 2026 and there is no sunset notice. https://airdropalert.com/airdrops/felix-protocol/ **Most likely path to YES:** Felix announces a TGE in Q4 2026 and lists on Hyperliquid spot or a HyperEVM DEX, as KNTQ did, with a points-based airdrop. It would likely run before points fatigue sets in, and with HYPE still strong. Day-1 FDV above $25M needs only a modest valuation. Even a small-float launch at about 0.07 of TVL, or a few hundred million tokens priced at a few cents, would clear it. BOTTOM LINE: The valuation hurdle is easy (a KNTQ-style FDV/TVL ratio gives roughly $40M+). The whole YES case depends on a Felix token actually trading before 2026-12-31, and I found no team commitment to that. NOT FOUND: any official Felix token or TGE announcement; Felix tokenomics or supply; a current Felix TVL (DefiLlama returned 403 on fetch; the search snippet showed $71.66M with TVL down 43% over 30 days, undated, which would weaken the TVL-ratio argument); and any statement by the team on a token timeline after the June 2026 shutdown post.

YES means: Felix launches a publicly tradable token by 2026-12-31 11:59 PM ET, and its FDV (total supply × price) is above $25M at 4:00 PM ET on the next calendar day. - [2026-10-15] AirdropAlert's Felix page (fetched) still labels the program "Active". It says tiers and rank position users for a "potential" post-TGE airdrop. It gives no TGE date, supply or tokenomics. Points-farming pages are not evidence that a launch has been scheduled. https://airdropalert.com/airdrops/felix-protocol/ - [2026-09-27] A Hyperliquid airdrop tracker said no Hyperliquid Season 2 or 3 airdrop was confirmed as of Sep 27, 2026. Felix and other HyperEVM farming guides lean on that speculation. If Hyperliquid's own distribution has not happened, a Felix launch alongside it is unsupported. https://cipher-intelligence.io/blog/hyperliquid-airdrop/ - [2026-03] CoinLaunch (snippet) lists risks for a Felix token: weak DeFi-token sentiment, only one audit, and no confirmed launch. It says the team is active only on Twitter. https://coinlaunch.space/projects/felix-protocol/ - [2026-Q1/Q2] Felix's product roadmap is aimed at equities, the HIP-3 exchange and a possible HUSD stablecoin, not a token. Token-less teams can keep growing indefinitely, so a quiet "no token in 2026" is the default. https://candydrops.xyz/en/projects/felix-protocol - [2025-02] The only token evidence is a FELIX ticker reportedly bought in a Hyperliquid auction in Oct 2024. A reserved ticker is not a launch, and it has been held for about two years without a launch. https://x.com/SKYGG_Official/status/1891835163941933230 - [2026-Q1/Q2] Compared with the "FDV one day after launch" markets that resolved Yes (Backpack, edgeX and Solstice resolved after tokens launched), Felix has no public token timeline. Resolved-Yes siblings were backed by team confirmation. https://polymarket.com/event/backpack-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch - [2026-10-15] The Backpack page (fetched) shows lower-strike Yes outcomes for strikes of $100M and $200M. That does not carry over to Felix. Felix's lower strikes are not resolved, and the $25M strike depends on a launch occurring first. https://polymarket.com/event/backpack-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch - [2026-10-15] Rules mechanics favour No. A launch must be "actively, publicly transferable and tradable". Points-only, locked, untransferable or pre-market tokens do not count. A late-December TGE could also fail the next-day 4 PM ET read, which must fall on the following calendar day. The deadline is not extended. https://polymarket.com/event/solstice-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch - [2026-10-15] The 11 weeks to the deadline give almost no room. Teams announce TGEs only days to weeks ahead, so absence of any announcement now is consistent with a launch, but it does not support one. No announced date means a larger share of the remaining window is already gone. https://financefeeds.com/felix-faces-coin-flip-odds-on-its-token-launch/ - [2026-Q1/Q2] Even conditional on launch, a low-float airdrop token with weak DeFi sentiment can print below $25M. Per the earlier colleague bullet, the $LAPTOP crash shows day-1 FDV can fall hard. The 13–16% snapshot price for the $25M strike (Sep/Oct) implies traders put the launch odds well below 50%. https://polymarket.com/event/felix-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch BOTTOM LINE: The strongest No case is the default state: no announced token or date, no supply, and about 11 weeks left, so nothing changing means No. The resolution rules also add technical ways to resolve No, such as untradable tokens and a late-December launch with a next-day read. NOT FOUND: any official Felix TGE announcement; a Felix token date, supply or tokenomics; any evidence of a launch in the last 30 days; a Felix team statement ruling out a 2026 token; resolved Felix FDV outcome pages.