Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?

- [2026-10-15] No evidence of a $VAPE launch as of today. I found no TGE date and no exchange listing. The Polymarket page still shows the FDV ladder as open, with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. https://polymarket.com/event/puffpaw-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch - [2026-10-15] The rendered Polymarket page shows the FDV ladder with $5.6M total volume. Listed prices are $50M 23–25%, $100M 23%, $200M 15%, $300M ~7–8%, and $400M ~7%. Resolution source is puffpaw.xyz. The page's end date reads Dec 31, 2026, while the rules text says the token must launch by Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. https://polymarket.com/event/puffpaw-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch - [2026-10-15] A sibling Polymarket market, "Will Puffpaw launch a token by ___?", was opened May 11, 2026. Its snapshot shows <1% for Sep 30, 2026, about 8% for Dec 31, 2026, and 45% for Mar 31, 2027. A separate figure of 70% appears but I could not tell which date it belongs to. Volume is thin, at $5–38K per strike. The snapshot is undated and may be stale. https://polymarket.com/event/will-puffpaw-launch-a-token-by - [2026-08-06] Octagon reported that the token had not launched as of this date, with only placeholder data on CoinMarketCap and Coinranking and "reported delays". It put $100M at 15% against a market price of 19%. https://www.octagonai.co/markets/crypto/fdv/puffpaw-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch - [2026-09-01] OddsShift snapshot: the $400M strike was at 7% YES with $908K volume, down from 9% on 2026-06-06. This is an aggregator, and its price levels in the text look generated and unreliable. https://oddsshift.com/radar/puffpaw-fdv-above-400m-one-day-after-launch - [2026-07] CoinLaunch said there was no Puffpaw TGE or airdrop as of July 2026. It also listed more than $17M in cumulative revenue and 4,000+ shops in 8 countries. https://coinlaunch.space/projects/puffpaw/ - [2026-02-11] Puffpaw confirmed on X that total $VAPE supply was changed from 100B to 1B at TGE. preVAPE balances are divided by 100, with "no impact on the tokenomics". FDV is therefore supply of 1B times price. $100M FDV requires about $0.10 per token. https://x.com/puffpaw/status/2021571395596001699 - [2026-02-05 to 2026-02-15] The airdrop registration portal ran in this window. Over 50,000 portal connections were reported in the first five days. Genesis Puff Pass holders had a Jan 21, 2026 snapshot, and airdrop recipients were slated for 5% of initial supply. Sources: https://x.com/Monarq101/status/2021199025270075886 and https://www.octagonai.co/markets/crypto/fdv/puffpaw-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch - [2026-02/03] The $100M strike traded at 60% on Feb 4, 2026, and 39% on Mar 11, 2026. It has since fallen to about 23%. Sources: https://pam.polymarket.com/event/puffpaw-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch/puffpaw-fdv-above-300m-one-day-after-launch and https://polymarket.com/event/puffpaw-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch - [2026-04-20] Protos published a critical piece on Puffpaw and its Gudtrip cannabis vape. Regulatory and reputational headwinds are noted. https://cryptonews.net/news/other/32735870/ - [2026-02] Vesting schedules for team, investors and treasury were not published (per Whales Market, 2026-02-05). Mining takes 46% of supply and unlocks gradually. https://whales.market/blog/puffpaw-price-prediction/ BOTTOM LINE: As of Oct 15, 2026 the token has not launched and no TGE date is public. It therefore needs to launch in about 11 weeks, with a day-one FDV above $100M, for a Yes. The market-implied odds for the $100M strike have fallen from about 60% in February to about 23%. NOT FOUND: An official TGE date or announcement, an exchange listing, or live price data for $VAPE. I also found no Puffpaw news from the last 7–14 days, no published final tokenomics or vesting, and no explanation for the delays beyond mentions of "reported delays".

- [2026-10-15] No $VAPE token launch was found as of today. The sources I could read show no TGE date, listing or trading. Octagon's page (updated 2026-08-06) says the token had not launched, and CoinLaunch also reported no TGE as of July 2026. If the token does not launch by 2026-12-31 11:59 PM ET, this contract resolves No. https://www.octagonai.co/markets/crypto/fdv/puffpaw-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch - [2026-10-15] On the Polymarket Puffpaw FDV ladder, the $100M strike trades at about 23%, with $1.75M volume on that strike and $5.6M across the event. The other strikes are $50M ~23–25%, $200M ~15%, $300M ~7–8% and $400M ~7%. I read this from the page snapshot, so it is not a live price. https://polymarket.com/event/puffpaw-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch - [2026-02-10] Early pricing was far more bullish. A Polymarket snapshot showed $100M at 60% and $50M at 84%. FinanceFeeds and Whales.market reported $100M at about 39% and $50M at 64–72%. The $100M price has since fallen from the 39–60% range to about 23%, so earlier pricing was too optimistic. https://pam.polymarket.com/event/puffpaw-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch/puffpaw-fdv-above-300m-one-day-after-launch - [2026-08-06] Octagon's model put $100M at 15%, against a market price of 19% at that time. Its page is auto-generated and says it was not individually reviewed. Octagon notes the $50M leg has thin liquidity. https://www.octagonai.co/markets/crypto/fdv/puffpaw-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch - [2026-08-06] Octagon summarises the comment section as mostly negative, with many calling the project junk. It also notes that traders see launch delay as a path to No. https://www.octagonai.co/markets/crypto/fdv/puffpaw-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch - [2026-02-12] Puffpaw cut total $VAPE supply from 100B to 1B at TGE and said tokenomics were unchanged. The airdrop registration window ran 2026-02-05 to 2026-02-15, and the airdrop snapshot date was 2026-01-21. Airdrop tokens were reported as 5% of initial supply. https://x.com/puffpaw/status/2021571395596001699 - [2026-02-05] Fundamentals: Puffpaw reports more than $12M in revenue and about 190k devices sold. It raised $6M in a seed round in September 2024 (Lemniscap, Spartan) plus about $4.1M from NFT sales. Analysts such as Whales.market judged the base case at $50–100M FDV. They described the token as a usage-reward token with limited value accrual and said DePIN is no longer a hot narrative. Team, investor and treasury tokens are locked at TGE, and vesting details are not public. https://whales.market/blog/puffpaw-price-prediction/ - [2026-10-15] Reference class: Polymarket "FDV above X one day after launch" markets resolve Yes only for tokens that actually launch, and many long-dated ones stay unlaunched. OpenSea's SEA (opened 2026-03-08) was still unlaunched in late September 2026, with its $100M strikes at 17–20%. Paradex, Opinion and Meteora did launch and resolved. https://polymarket.com/event/opensea-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch - [2026-10-15] No launch-timing signal was found. The Polymarket "pre-market" list shows long-dated FDV ladders for other projects (Ink $100M ~42%, Ostium $50M ~12%), and Puffpaw's deadline is 2026-12-31. https://polymarket.com/crypto/pre-market - [2026-07] Puffpaw's own token timeline slipped. Gen2 and airdrop campaigns ran from July 2025, a TGE was promised after the February 2026 snapshot, and as of July 2026 there was still none. That is about 8 months of slippage. https://coinlaunch.space/projects/puffpaw/ - [2026-10-15] Roughly 11 weeks remain until the deadline. With no TGE announced and the snapshot and registration already done, a launch is possible but unconfirmed. BOTTOM LINE: This needs two things: a launch before 2026-12-31 and a day-1 FDV above $100M. Neither is confirmed. The market has repriced steadily downward, and the main outside-view reference classes are low-float, usage-reward DePIN tokens and long-delayed pre-market FDV ladders. NOT FOUND: Any official TGE date, listing announcement, final tokenomics or vesting schedule. Pre-market, OTC or Whales.market implied FDV for $VAPE after February 2026. A systematic base-rate dataset of how often Polymarket "FDV one day after launch" ladders resolved Yes by strike.

YES means: $VAPE launches (publicly tradable) by 2026-12-31 11:59 PM ET, and its FDV (total supply × price, supply 1B) at 4:00 PM ET on the next calendar day is above $100M, i.e. a price above about $0.10. - [2026-06-16] FinanceFeeds, which I fetched, says TGE is "expected before December 31, 2026". It also repeats that the airdrop registration portal went live in February. This is a secondary source with no primary Puffpaw date behind it. It gives the Yes path a stated launch window, not a confirmed date. https://financefeeds.com/puffpaw-debut-splits-traders-over-day-one/ - [2026-06-16] Revenue is the main fundamental case for a high FDV. Puffpaw claims more than $12M cumulative revenue and 190k devices sold. The same piece notes about 4,000 retail locations. A $100M FDV would be roughly 8x cumulative revenue (my arithmetic). Whales.market had judged $50M "not difficult to justify" on that revenue. https://financefeeds.com/puffpaw-debut-splits-traders-over-day-one/ - [2026-07] CoinLaunch lists revenue above $17M as of July 2026, up from $12M in February. That is about 40% growth in five months. At $17M, $100M is about 6x revenue. It also adds Gudtrip bitcoin-reward cannabis vapes, sold in California stores and on Amazon Japan. These are new revenue lines and could support a stronger launch narrative. https://coinlaunch.space/projects/puffpaw/ - [2026-02-05] Float mechanics favour a high FDV with a thin float. Whales.market's fetched analysis says the 46% mining allocation is earned gradually. It says team, investor and treasury tokens are locked at TGE. Airdrops are estimated at 5–10% of supply, and the Trade Wars allocation is 0.4%. A low float could push price well above $0.10 on thin day-one liquidity. The same piece cites Seeker (SKR) rising nearly 10x after listing as a precedent for a "pump for marketing" launch. https://whales.market/blog/puffpaw-price-prediction/ - [2026-02-05] Whales.market's own base case was $50–100M, so even sympathetic analysts put $100M at the top of their range. Yes therefore needs a beat of the base case. The same piece says the token is a usage-reward token with "limited value accrual". https://whales.market/blog/puffpaw-price-prediction/ - [2026-02-05] Pre-market demand existed. Whales.market reports more than 1,000 pre-market traders and $800K volume in four weeks. A Whales Prediction post (2026-02) put the odds of FDV above $50M at 72% and above $200M at 15%. Those figures were all measured before the later fade. https://x.com/whalespredict/status/2019429584156938717 - [2026-02-11] The cut in total supply from 100B to 1B, with preVAPE balances divided by 100, makes the per-token price a normal number. A $0.10 price is the threshold. The supply change is not a signal of weakness by itself. It also removes any ambiguity about which supply figure the FDV uses. https://x.com/puffpaw/status/2021571395596001699 - [2026-12-31, rule] The Yes path has no early deadline pressure from the contract. It needs only a launch before 2026-12-31 11:59 PM ET, and a launch late in December still counts. The "1 day after" snapshot can fall after that cutoff. This is my reading of the rules text, not a fetched source. https://polymarket.com/event/puffpaw-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch - [2026-10-15] Trade-venue context: Bitget lists a different token, "Puffpaw" (PUFFPAW), on Ethereum. It has about $0.000000000023 price, 45 holders and 1B supply. Coinbase lists an unrelated "Bitcoin Vape" token at about $2.4K FDV. Neither is $VAPE. This is an impostor risk: wrong-token data could confuse a "most liquid price source" check. It does not help Yes. https://web3.bitget.com/how-to-buy/puffpaw-eth-0xD3DFD06c80ea13e8cBc2C81DEb1a91A127520eB0 - [2026-09-01] OddsShift's snapshot has the $400M strike at 7% YES with $908K volume. A fat-tail bid persisted through the delay, so some traders still see a hype launch. The page's text looks auto-generated, so treat it as weak. https://oddsshift.com/radar/puffpaw-fdv-above-400m-one-day-after-launch Single most likely path to YES: Puffpaw announces a TGE and lists on one or more large exchanges in Nov–Dec 2026. The float is low (airdrops plus incentives, under about 10%). Airdrop recipients hold their tokens, or there are few sellers, because the vesting schedule is long and locked. Day-one trading at $0.10 or more follows. This needs several things at once: a launch that has no announced date today, strong exchange support, a risk-on market, and a launch narrative that outweighs weak "usage-reward token" demand. The revenue growth to $17M and the thin float are the best evidence-backed supports. Nothing I found shows the launch is imminent. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest Yes case rests on real revenue of $12–17M, a low-float and locked-supply structure, and a stated "before Dec 31" TGE expectation. A beat of the $50–100M analyst base case is still needed, and no launch date is public 11 weeks out. Yes therefore depends mostly on whether the launch happens, then on a top-of-range price. NOT FOUND: An official Puffpaw TGE date or exchange listing announcement. Any post-February pre-market (Whales.market or OTC) implied FDV for $VAPE. Final tokenomics, vesting or initial circulating supply. Any Puffpaw announcement from the last two weeks.

YES means: Puffpaw's $VAPE token launches (publicly tradable) by Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and its FDV (total supply × price) is above $100M at 4:00 PM ET on the next calendar day. - [2026-10-15] The sibling "launch by" market gives about 26% for Dec 31, 2026 and about 38% for Mar 31, 2027. Its listed volume is $11K per strike, about $67K in total. The page's ~27% and ~24% figures sit beside those prices and I can't tell what they are. Earlier colleagues' snapshots showed 8% and 45% for those dates, so the Dec 31 price has risen. But even 26% is a ceiling on the launch leg alone. A Yes also needs a day-1 FDV above $100M, so the joint chance is lower. Liquidity on that market is $1.7K. https://polymarket.com/event/will-puffpaw-launch-a-token-by - [2026-10-15] That same page puts the March 31, 2027 date ahead of the Dec 31, 2026 date. The market's own favoured launch window therefore falls after this contract's deadline. A launch in Q1 2027 resolves this contract No whatever the FDV. The page lists "Puffpaw" under Pre Market, but the market opened May 11, 2026 and only 11 weeks remain. https://polymarket.com/event/will-puffpaw-launch-a-token-by - [2026-10-14] Polymarket's token-launch hub shows the FDV ladder as "Ends in 3 months". The $50M strike is at 25% and the $100M strike at 29% with $6M volume and $99.7K liquidity, in a snippet. The $100M price is higher than my colleagues' ~23%, so the price is noisy. The $100M strike pricing at or above the $50M strike is odd, because a Yes at $100M implies a Yes at $50M. That points to thin or stale order books. https://polymarket.com/predictions/token-launch - [2026-10-15] Polymarket's list of token-launch markets contains no Puffpaw item stating a TGE date or listing. Other projects in the same list show launches 98–99% likely, but those are long-dated to Dec 2027. A short Dec-2026 deadline gives Puffpaw little slack compared with them. https://polymarket.com/predictions/token-launch - [2026-02-11] The 100B→1B supply cut means FDV is 1B times price, so Yes needs ≥$0.10/token. The Feb 11 post said "at the time of the Puffpaw TGE", i.e. the TGE was treated as imminent. Eight months later there is still no launch. That is a track record of slipping, and status-quo inertia favours No. https://x.com/puffpaw/status/2021571395596001699 - [2026-02-10] FinanceFeeds wrote that the TGE was "expected before December 31, 2026". That date is just the market's own deadline, not a team commitment. The article is a secondary source and I found no official Puffpaw statement that backs the date. https://financefeeds.com/puffpaw-debut-splits-traders-over-day-one/ - [2026-02-05] The Whales.market note says vesting and unlock figures were unpublished. It judged the base case at $50–100M FDV, so the $100M strike sits at the top of that analyst range. Airdrop tokens unlock at TGE, while team, investor and mining tokens are locked, which leaves a low float and a likely sell-off from airdrop recipients. https://whales.market/blog/puffpaw-price-prediction/ - [2026-02-04] An X trader short thesis on the Polymarket FDV ladder ("fdv above $300–400m" unlikely) argued that weak market sentiment tends to stall new launches even when the broader market is pumping. It also noted there was still no final tokenomics. He took that as a sign the launch window was closing in. That signal has not been borne out in the eight months since. https://x.com/0xkhan_/status/2019056992632135742 - [2026-08-06] Octagon says the token had not launched and only had placeholder data. It also says traders see a launch delay as a path to No. It reads the market's comments as consensus towards No across all strikes. The page is auto-generated and unreviewed. https://www.octagonai.co/markets/crypto/fdv/puffpaw-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch - [2026-10-15] I found no confirmed fresh Puffpaw announcement: no TGE date, exchange listing, or tokenomics post. Listings usually come days or weeks before a TGE. With 11 weeks left, the window for a Binance, Bybit or similar listing announcement is narrowing. This is an absence of evidence, not proof. https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/puffpaw/ - [2026-10-15] Resolution technicalities that favour No: (a) the token must be "actively, publicly transferable and tradable", so a points or preVAPE phase or a listing that isn't yet open doesn't count; (b) FDV is read at 4:00 PM ET the day after launch, so a launch on Dec 31 is read on Jan 1, which is still valid. (c) A launch late on Dec 31 after 11:59 PM ET would not count. (d) The "most liquid price source" gives room for a dispute if a thin pre-market price differs from the main venue. https://polymarket.com/event/will-puffpaw-launch-a-token-by BOTTOM LINE: The strongest No case is that a Yes needs two things at once. The first is a launch in about 11 weeks with no date, listing or final tokenomics announced and a record of repeated slippage. The second is a day-1 FDV above the top of analysts' $50–100M range, from a low-float usage-reward token. The sibling market puts its most likely launch date after this contract's deadline, and the Dec 31, 2026 price (about 26%) caps the joint probability. NOT FOUND: An official TGE date, an exchange listing announcement, final tokenomics or vesting, and any post-February pre-market or OTC FDV for $VAPE. I also found no Puffpaw X post from the last two weeks.