Will Amazon Credit Card Spend for October 2026 be above 118 ?

- [2026-10-05] Carbon Arc's first-reported September 2026 Amazon Credit Card Spend index was 119.2. This is the `expiration_value` on the settled Kalshi September contracts (strikes 132, 136 and 140 all resolved No). The September market was set at "above 110" per Coinbase's mirror. Source: https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?series_ticker=KXAMZNCC&status=settled&limit=3 - [2026-10-07] The October 2026 market (event KXAMZNCC-26NOV07) opened with a ladder of strikes running up to at least 157. The strike at 118 was created 2026-09-30 and opened 2026-10-01. Source: https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets/KXAMZNCC-26NOV07-T118 - [2026-10-07] Sibling strikes above 139, 148 and 157 trade at about 1–4¢, so the market places the October value well below 139. These are Kalshi quotes as of the 2026-10-12 update. Source: https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?series_ticker=KXAMZNCC&limit=50 - [2026-10-12] Settlement mechanics: the market resolves on the finalized Carbon Arc value recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on 2026-11-04. This differs from the September market, which settled on the first reported value. The Kalshi `close_time` is 2026-11-07 and expiration is 2026-11-14. Source: https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets/KXAMZNCC-26NOV07-T118 - [2026-10-06] Prime Big Deal Days ran Oct 6–7, 2026, so this year's fall event falls inside October. Its dates relative to last year's event (Oct 7–8, 2025, per GSMArena) matter for the year-over-year comparison, and both fall in October. Source: https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/retail/best-prime-big-deal-days-2026-top-deals - [2026-08-31] Amazon's new advertiser billing system took effect on 2026-08-01. It moves advertisers from credit-card billing to automatic deductions from seller balances. Octagon (an AI-assisted summary, not a primary source) says this removes a B2B card-spend stream and caused August strike repricing. Source: https://www.octagonai.co/news/amazon-credit-card-spending-prediction-market-august-2026 - [2026-08-31] The August 2026 market had strikes of roughly 102–107, and the "above 105" strike fell from 64% to 8% on 2026-08-31. That points to an August index near 105–106, well below September's 119.2. I could not confirm the final August value. Source: https://www.octagonai.co/news/amazon-credit-card-spending-prediction-market-august-2026 - [2026-07-30] Amazon's Q2 2026 net sales rose 20% year over year to $200.6B, and North America sales rose 16%. Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001018724/000101872426000024/amzn-20260630xex991.htm - [2026-10-29] Amazon Q3 2026 results are expected on or around Oct 29, before the market closes. Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/dates-matter-most-amazon-stock-102721221.html - [2026-10-12] The Kalshi order book for "above 118" was wide on the 2026-10-12 update: last trade 10¢, previous 27¢, yes bid 2¢ and ask 10¢. Volume was about 11,049 contracts. Source: https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets/KXAMZNCC-26NOV07-T118 BOTTOM LINE: The latest Carbon Arc reading is September at 119.2, just above the 118 strike. August was much lower, near 105–106, and the cluster of strikes up to 157 shows the series is volatile. Whether the Oct 6–7 sale timing and the ad-billing change shift the October index remains unclear, and no intra-month October value is publicly visible. NOT FOUND: Carbon Arc's own October-to-date index values and the final August 2026 value. I also could not find a stated explanation for why September's 119.2 was so far above August.

- [2026-10-15] Kalshi's live ladder for this event (Amazon Credit Card Spend in October, series KXAMZNCC) shows a tracker reading of 98.54 for "12 of 31 days" of October. Sibling strikes read about 66% for Above 109, 49% for Above 112 and 23% for Above 115. The Above 118 strike falls beyond the highest of these. These are live prices and may move. The page does not say what the 98.54 measures. Other Kalshi data suggest the final print is not simply the running figure. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxamzncc/amazon-credit-card-spend/kxamzncc-26nov07 - [2026-10-15] The rules resolve on the finalized Carbon Arc value recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on Nov 4. The index is year-over-year, with 100 meaning flat. The market opened Oct 1 and expires early if the data is released. Kalshi labels the event "directional". https://kalshi.com/markets/kxamzncc/amazon-credit-card-spend/kxamzncc-26nov07 - [2026-10-15] The same Kalshi category page shows the Amazon October market with 12 strikes and about $47K volume. Its headline strikes are Above 112 (about 49%) and Above 109 (about 66%). The page also lists October markets for Kroger, Target, Starbucks, Dollar General and others. https://kalshi.com/category/financials/credit-card-spend - [2026-08-31] For the August 2026 Amazon market, strikes ran from 102 to 107. On Aug 31 the Above 105 strike fell from 64% to 8%, while Above 106 stood at 73% (the source's own table is inconsistent here). Above 104 was 93%. This implies the August print was expected near 105 to 106, well below 118. https://www.octagonai.co/news/amazon-credit-card-spending-prediction-market-august-2026 - [2026-08-31] Octagon attributes the August repricing to Amazon's new advertiser billing system, effective Aug 1, 2026. It moves advertisers from credit-card payment to automatic deductions from seller balances, which removes a B2B card stream. This is Octagon's AI-assisted interpretation, not confirmed by Carbon Arc. If the change persists, it is a structural headwind to the October index too. https://www.octagonai.co/news/amazon-credit-card-spending-prediction-market-august-2026 - [2026-09-15] The September 2026 Amazon market (KXAMZNCC-26OCT07) used a single strike of Above 110 on the Coinbase mirror. It resolved on the first Carbon Arc value, around Oct 7. That was a different resolution rule from October's finalized value at day 4. I could not find the September outcome. https://www.coinbase.com/en-mx/predictions/event/KXAMZNCC-26OCT07 - [2026-07-30] Amazon blamed tough Q3 comparisons on moving Prime Day to June from July, and said Q3 growth would be nearly 400 basis points higher excluding Prime Day timing. October 2025 compares against a year-earlier month that had the Oct 2025 Prime Big Deal Days. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/30/amazon-amzn-q2-earnings-report-2026.html - [2026-08] Octagon's market context describes Amazon's Q2 net sales growth as 20% year over year. It also notes Prime Day "belt-tightening" and Amazon's non-disclosure of monthly card spend. This is secondary, AI-assisted commentary. https://www.octagonai.co/markets/financials/kpis/amazon-monthly-credit-card-spend-in-august - [2026-07-16] Amazon's business credit cards moved from American Express to U.S. Bank, with new cards activating Aug 14, 2026. A change of issuer or network could affect how Carbon Arc's panel captures Amazon Business card spend. This is speculative, and I found no direct evidence of any effect on the index. https://beancount.io/blog/2026/07/16/amazon-business-prime-business-credit-card-relaunch-guide - [2026-07-17] Carbon Arc supplies entity-level card spend data (210 data assets) via OpenBB. It describes a "reinstatement" process in which entity mapping updates can restate historical series. This fits the Kalshi rule's reliance on "finalized" values. https://openbb.co/blog/carbon-arc-brings-card-spend-web-traffic-and-more-into-openbb/ BOTTOM LINE: Recent prints of this Carbon Arc series cluster in the low-to-mid 100s: the August market centered near 105–106 and September's strike was 110. Live October strikes center near 112. A threshold of 118 sits above the market's visible top strike (115 at about 23%), so it is a high-tail outcome. The outside view is that it resolves YES only if October runs well above recent months. NOT FOUND: Actual finalized Carbon Arc values for Amazon for any month, including the September 2026 outcome. A historical hit rate for Kalshi's Amazon Credit Card Spend markets. Any expert forecast. What the 98.54 tracker measures. Carbon Arc's own dashboard, which is behind a login.

YES means: Carbon Arc's finalized Amazon Credit Card Spend index for October 2026, recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on Nov 4, is above 118. - [2026-10-09] Adobe put U.S. online spend during the Oct 6–7 Prime Big Deal Days at $9.86B, up 8.5% year over year. Adobe said markdowns reached 20% and shoppers traded up to higher-ticket items. The two-day events fell on the same weekdays in both years (Tue/Wed). Retail Dive says Numerator found Amazon household spend of $114, almost double a normal Tue/Wed. This is the only sale event of the month, and it was a bigger-ticket event than last year's. Adobe's figure covers all U.S. online retail, not just Amazon. https://www.retaildive.com/news/amazon-prime-big-deal-days-online-spend-nears-ten-billion/832604/ - [2026-10-09] Numerator found that more than a third of shoppers did at least half their holiday shopping during the event. This pulls holiday demand into October, which supports October's year-over-year print. The same finding hurts November. https://www.retaildive.com/news/amazon-prime-big-deal-days-online-spend-nears-ten-billion/832604/ - [2026-10-09] Bank of America's card data showed September 2026 per-household card spend up 6.2% year over year. That is the third-strongest rate in four years and well above the 2025 average. Non-store and online retailers were among the fastest-growing categories. Holiday-item spending in September ran well ahead of 2025. Macro card spend is accelerating into October. https://institute.bankofamerica.com/content/dam/economic-insights/consumer-checkpoint-october-2026.pdf - [2026-10-05] Adobe forecast total October 2026 U.S. online spend at $95.8B, up 8% from October 2025. Online spend is growing in the high single digits against a comparison month that also had a Prime event. https://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/418508/report-amazon-prime-big-deal-days-to-reach-99b.html - [2026-10-12] Path to YES: the September first print (119.2, per the Oct 5 report) sets the nearest benchmark. It was just above 118 and came after the Aug 1 ad-billing change, so that change was already in the base. October holds roughly at September's level, helped by the Oct 6–7 event and the strong card backdrop above. The August print of about 105–106 would then have been the outlier. The strikes at 139, 148 and 157 trade at 1–4¢, but the Kalshi ladder still includes tail strikes far above 118, so the series is volatile. https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?series_ticker=KXAMZNCC&limit=50 - [2026-10-12] Prerequisites for YES: (a) September's 119.2 reflects a durable level rather than a one-off; (b) Carbon Arc's finalized Nov 4 value does not get restated below 118; (c) the 12-day tracker figure of 98.54 (from the base-rate report) is a partial or other measure that rises as the Oct 6–7 event and later days are added. I could not verify (c). https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?series_ticker=KXAMZNCC&limit=50 - [2026-04-28] Under the Aug 1 ad-billing change, a credit card stays on file as a backup. Amazon charges it if the proceeds balance is short. Some ad spend can therefore still hit cards, so the headwind is partial rather than total. This weakens the structural-drag argument against YES. https://slopepay.com/blog/amazon-ad-billing-change-2026 BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES case is that September already printed 119.2 under the new ad-billing regime. October then adds a larger-ticket Prime Big Deal Days (Adobe +8.5%) and accelerating macro card spend (Bank of America +6.2% in September). The main weaknesses are the 98.54 tracker reading and the market's own pricing of about 23% at 115, which is below the 118 strike. NOT FOUND: Carbon Arc's October-to-date or finalized values. Any explanation of the August-to-September swing. An Amazon-specific card-spend read for October from any third party. Any evidence that the Nov 4 finalized value will differ from the first-reported value.

YES means: the finalized Carbon Arc Amazon Credit Card Spend index for October 2026, recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on 2026-11-04, is above 118. - [2026-10-05] The Kalshi September contracts were created Oct 4 at strikes of 132, 136 and 140. They settled at 119.2, which was below every strike, and all resolved No. The September rule stated that corrections made after settlement would not count. The October rule is different: it uses the finalized value on Nov 4. September's 119.2 was a first print. The finalized October number can differ from the early prints, and the first-print comparison is not like-for-like. https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?series_ticker=KXAMZNCC&status=settled&limit=20 - [2026-10-12] Kalshi's October ladder has a single bid-ask pair per strike, and the top strikes (148 and 157) sit at 1–3¢ yes. The 148 strike has 10,625 contracts bid at 2¢. The Oct 12 quotes imply that, as of that date, traders put the October index well under the ladder's top strikes. https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?series_ticker=KXAMZNCC&limit=50 - [2026-10-08] The Prime Big Deal Days comparison is roughly neutral for the YoY index. Adobe reported $9.86B of US online spend on Oct 6–7, 2026, up 8.5% from $9.09B in 2025. Both events fell on a Tuesday and Wednesday. The 2025 growth rate was 7.3%. Because both events land inside October, the event does not create a calendar tailwind. The 8.5% figure is all US online retail, not Amazon. That is far below a +18% YoY reading for the Amazon index. https://chainstoreage.com/amazon-prime-big-deal-days-produces-9-spending-growth - [2026-10-06] Adobe's pre-event forecast was for total October 2026 US online spend of $95.8B, up 8% from October 2025. An index above 118 would require Amazon card spend to grow more than twice as fast as the whole online market. The forecast was published before the event, and the event came in slightly under it. https://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/418508/ - [2026-10-09] Bank of America reported total card spending per household up 6.2% YoY in September (5.1% excluding gasoline). Month-over-month growth was muted, at 0.2% seasonally adjusted. Broad card growth is mid-single-digit, which does not support an Amazon-specific panel reading of +18%. https://institute.bankofamerica.com/content/dam/economic-insights/consumer-checkpoint-october-2026.pdf - [2026-10-05] Adobe found that the average household spent 11% less per Amazon transaction in the Prime Day window than the year before. Conversion also fell 31% YoY at the retailers Impact analyzed (Forbes, which cites Adobe and Impact). Smaller baskets and weaker conversion are consistent with a lower card-spend index. https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbes-personal-shopper/2026/10/05/is-prime-big-deal-days-worth-shopping/ - [2026-08-31] The August index sat near 105–106 after the Aug 1 advertiser-billing change, which moved sellers' ad payments off cards. The September 119.2 reading is a single outlier relative to August. Octagon (AI-assisted commentary) says the change persists as a structural headwind. The September jump is unexplained, so mean reversion toward the roughly 105–112 range is the status-quo-style case for No. https://www.octagonai.co/news/amazon-credit-card-spending-prediction-market-august-2026 - [2026-10-15] The base-rate colleague's Oct 15 snapshot has the live ladder's 98.54 tracker at "12 of 31 days", with Above 115 at about 23%. Even the 115 strike is a minority outcome. Above 118 requires clearing a 3-point gap beyond that, so 118 is a high-tail strike by the market's own shape. That is a colleague's reading of the Kalshi page, not something I re-fetched. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxamzncc/amazon-credit-card-spend/kxamzncc-26nov07 - [2026-10-05] Even the September 119.2 was only +1.2 above 118. If September's level contained any one-off boost, a normal drop of a few points in October would resolve No. The Kalshi series has thin settled history (only the September contracts appear in the settled feed). https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?series_ticker=KXAMZNCC&status=settled&limit=20 - [2026-11-04] The finalized value is recorded on Nov 4, and the early-close condition says the market closes if the data is released. If the data is released before Nov 4, the market could close early at a value that Carbon Arc later restates. Colleagues cited Carbon Arc's "reinstatement" restatements. A restatement could move the value in either direction, so it adds noise rather than favouring No. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest No case is that October needs about +18% YoY card spend while Adobe's whole-online-retail growth for the Prime Big Deal Days was only 8.5%, broad card spend is up about 6%, and September's 119.2 followed an August near 105–106. The Prime event timing is neutral and the ad-billing change is a headwind, so mean reversion below 118 is the default. NOT FOUND: Carbon Arc's own October-to-date values or a finalized August or September value. I also could not find a reason for September's jump to 119.2, or any Carbon Arc statement on its restatement history. A fetch of the Digital Commerce 360 article failed. The Adobe figures come from the Chain Store Age, MediaPost and Forbes pages above, and I did not read those pages in full.