Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,400 units?

- [2026-10-15] The resolution source is the Census BPS "Permits by CBSA" page. It lists monthly 2026 files through August 2026 and was last revised 2026-09-24. There is no 2026 annual file yet. The page lists "Annual 2025" under 2025. I could not open the Bozeman CBSA rows, so I have no Census 2026 year-to-date figure for Bozeman. https://www.census.gov/construction/bps/msamonthly.html - [2026-05-14] Census released final annual 2025 permit estimates, including CBSA and county data. Final 2026 annual data will most likely come around May 2027. That is before the 2027-05-31 close, but with little margin. https://www.census.gov/construction/bps/index.html - [2026-04 approx.] The 2026 Gallatin Valley Housing Report says builders secured permits for 1,622 housing units in Gallatin County in 2025. Bozeman accounted for 1,056, mostly multifamily, and Belgrade had 154. The Bozeman CBSA is the same area as Gallatin County, so 1,622 is the best available proxy for the 2025 CBSA total. It is a local report, not the Census figure. https://www.kbzk.com/news/local-news/lets-break-down-the-2026-gallatin-valley-housing-report - [2025-05 data release] FRED/Census annual structure counts for Gallatin County, which the Census labels "structures" in this series, were 2,038 in 2020, 2,475 in 2021, 2,322 in 2022, 1,864 in 2023 and 1,706 in 2024. The trend is down, and 2025 at about 1,622 continued it. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BPPRIV030031 - [2025-06-01] The HUD comprehensive housing market analysis for the Bozeman area found an average of about 1,100 sales units permitted per year from 2017 to 2024. It found 1,025 sales units permitted in the 12 months to May 2025. It also found about 950 rental units permitted in the same 12 months, down 14%, after a rental peak of about 1,575 in 2021. It saw "no demand" for new rentals through 2028 because of excess supply. https://www.huduser.gov/portal/publications/pdf/BozemanMT-CHMA-25.pdf - [2026-04-03] Montana Free Press reports a cooling Bozeman market. Rental vacancy is high, and some developers have slowed projects. About 1,400 subsidized rental units are in the pipeline. The 1,400 figure is coincidental and does not refer to 2026 permits. https://montanafreepress.org/2026/04/03/bozeman-housing-market-cools-but-a-stable-market-hasnt-meant-an-affordable-one/ - [2026-08-07] Montana Free Press, analysing Census BPS data, found Gallatin County had the highest permitting rate in Montana, at about 15 to 16 units per 1,000 residents. Multifamily projects make annual counts swing. https://montanafreepress.org/2026/08/07/what-housing-permits-do-and-dont-say-about-development/ - [2026-03 to 2026-04] Hidden Creek (182 affordable units) had final permits approved in late March 2026. Financial closing was on April 7. Those units would count toward 2026 permits if the city issued them as new-unit permits. https://www.gallatinmt.gov/communications/pages/gallatin-county-affordable-housing - [2026-03-19] The Montana Supreme Court unanimously upheld the 2023 pro-density housing laws (SB 245, 323 and 528). This removes a legal risk to permitting. https://www.bozemandailychronicle.com/news/montana-supreme-court-rules-against-bozeman-group-on-housing-reform/article_f663f664-40ad-4884-bd4a-7a29ee257757.html - [2026-09-14] National context: residential permits fell 1.7% in the 12 months to July 2026, the 44th straight monthly year-over-year decline per Zillow. The national seasonally adjusted annual rate was 1,403k in August 2026 after 1,433k in July. https://zillow.mediaroom.com/2026-09-14-The-new-home-construction-boom-is-running-out-of-steam - [2026-10-20 / 2026-10-27, scheduled] Census releases the September national permits report on Oct 20 and September state and CBSA monthly data around Oct 27. No other scheduled event before the close changes the 2026 total, apart from the final annual release in spring 2027. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PERMIT - [2025-05 approx.] The Bozeman city portal showed about 1,028 new residential dwelling permits in the 12 months to May 2025. https://www.bozemandailychronicle.com/news/bozeman-building-permits-data-portal/article_f663f664-40ad-4884-bd4a-7a29ee257757.html BOTTOM LINE: The nearest available benchmark is about 1,622 units in 2025 for the same area (local report). The 1,400 threshold would require a decline of roughly 14% or more from there. Soft rental demand and falling national permits point down, but Hidden Creek's 182 units and large multifamily projects can swing a single year either way. I could not confirm the actual 2026 year-to-date figure for the Bozeman CBSA. NOT FOUND: The Census Bozeman CBSA 2026 year-to-date figure (Jan–Aug), the Census final annual 2025 Bozeman CBSA total, and the City of Bozeman's 2026 permit counts. Census data file URLs returned 404 or would not open.

- [2026-05-14] The Census Bureau released final annual 2025 Building Permits Survey data on this date, so the final 2026 annual data would come around mid-May 2027. That is before the 2027-05-31 close but close to it. https://www.census.gov/construction/bps/index.html - [2026-05-14] I could not open the 2025 Bozeman CBSA annual file, so I have no direct 2025 CBSA total. The Bozeman CBSA appears to cover Gallatin County only (my inference; I did not check the OMB definition), so county data is the closest proxy. https://www.census.gov/construction/bps/msamonthly.html - [2025-05-23] Census/FRED annual housing units authorized for Gallatin County, MT: 2020 = 2,038; 2021 = 2,475; 2022 = 2,322; 2023 = 1,864; 2024 = 1,706. FRED labels the series "structures" but the notes say it covers all structure types, and the values look like units. In this five-year record (2020–2024), every year was above 1,400. The trend is declining. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BPPRIV030031 - [2026 realtor report, about 2026-04] For 2025, builders secured permits for 1,622 housing units in Gallatin County. Bozeman accounted for 1,056, mostly multifamily, and Belgrade for 154. The source is the Southwest Montana Association of Realtors report with UM's Bureau of Business and Economic Research. It is probably Census-based but is not confirmed as the final Census figure. 2025 was about 5% below 2024 and still about 16% above 1,400. https://www.kbzk.com/news/local-news/lets-break-down-the-2026-gallatin-valley-housing-report - [2025-06] The HUD Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis for Bozeman (as of June 2025) shows an average of about 1,100 sales units permitted a year from 2017 to 2024. Rental permits averaged about 1,150 a year from 2022 to 2024 and peaked near 1,575 in 2021. In the 12 months to May 2025, about 1,025 sales units and 950 rental units were permitted. These figures cover the HMA, so they are not directly comparable to the CBSA total. Rental permitting is lumpy and falling. https://www.huduser.gov/portal/publications/pdf/BozemanMT-CHMA-25.pdf - [2025-05] The City of Bozeman dashboard showed 1,028 new residential dwelling-unit permits in the city in the 12 months to mid-May 2025. That is consistent with the 1,056 city figure for 2025. https://www.bozemandailychronicle.com/news/bozeman-building-permits-data-portal/article_f663f664-40ad-4884-bd4a-7a29ee257757.html - [2026-08-07] A Montana Free Press analysis of Census BPS data found that Gallatin County permitted about 15 to 15.7 units per 1,000 residents a year in 2016–2020 and 2021–2025. That was the highest rate among large Montana counties. At a population of about 128,740, that rate implies roughly 1,950 to 2,000 units a year. The article also notes that large apartment projects make annual counts swing sharply; the example is Billings, which went from 1,122 units in 2023 to 566 in 2025. https://montanafreepress.org/2026/08/07/what-housing-permits-do-and-dont-say-about-development/ - [2026-04-17] NAHB reported single-family permits down 15.2% nationally year over year in January 2026, and down 20.1% in the West. Multifamily was flat. This is a headwind for 2026. https://www.nahb.org/blog/2026/04/single-family-permits-decline-sharply - [2026-09-24] National permits were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,403 thousand in August 2026, roughly flat versus April to July (1,374 to 1,433). That points to no collapse nationally. Mountain division permits were 12,466 in August 2026, not seasonally adjusted. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PERMIT - [2026] Bozeman's new unified development code increases density, and the state land-use law is pushing more housing. Local reporting says the market absorbs multifamily more slowly than expected, and a Gallatin-area realtor/economist said supply "takes about two years to catch up." These point to a possible multifamily slowdown. Either direction is plausible, so treat this as context only. https://www.bozemandailychronicle.com/news/bozeman-provisionally-adopts-udc-increasing-zoning-density/article_a3db39b4-cdb1-4811-829e-958dc71859d3.html BOTTOM LINE: Gallatin County (about the Bozeman CBSA) has exceeded 1,400 units in each of 2020–2025 (about 1,622 in 2025, the lowest in the 2020–25 set except 2024's 1,706 being higher), so the base rate favors YES. The risk is a continued decline of about 5% a year plus swings in multifamily permitting, which could bring 2026 near the threshold. I found no 2026 year-to-date CBSA figure. NOT FOUND: The Census 2025 annual Bozeman CBSA total. Any 2026 monthly or year-to-date Bozeman CBSA or Gallatin County permit counts. Any published forecast of the 2026 total. The 2025 Census Gallatin County figure itself (1,622 comes from a realtor report). The full 2026 Gallatin Valley Housing Report.

YES means: the Census BPS final annual 2026 total housing units authorized for the Bozeman, MT CBSA (Gallatin County) is above 1,400 units. - [2026-10-15] I fetched the Census county year-to-date file for August 2026. It exists, but the output was truncated and the Gallatin County, MT row was cut off, so I have no 2026 year-to-date figure. A 2026 Bozeman figure is therefore unverified. https://www2.census.gov/econ/bps/County/co2608y.txt - [2026-07-07] Rocky Mountain Flats, a 296-unit LIHTC complex near Fowler Lane in Bozeman, broke ground "a few weeks ago" (BlueLine Development and HRDC). If the city issued its permits in 2026, they add about 296 units to the 2026 count. Hidden Creek's 182 units (permits finalized late March 2026, per the colleagues' report) would add to that. Together the two projects total about 478 units, and each is a 100%-affordable LIHTC deal that was built by a developer that has secured financing. I am inferring the permit year from the groundbreaking dates. https://www.fairfieldsuntimes.com/news/state/bozeman-project-aims-to-add-296-workforce-housing-units/article_f22e87c0-1384-5f98-9305-eb887045904c.html - [2026-05-12] The Northern, a 7-story building with 81 units, was approved with conditions at 621 W. Mendenhall. Other large mixed-use pipeline projects include Aspen 8 (289 units) and The Guthrie (111 units, approved). Any of these could be permitted in 2026, but I have no permit dates. https://bozemanrealestate.group/blog/the-northern-midtown - [2026-05-05] Hidden Creek had its groundbreaking on May 1, 2026 and included 40 units for households at 30% of area median income (AMI). That confirms construction started in 2026, which is consistent with 2026 permit issuance. https://www.bozemandailychronicle.com/news/bozeman-affordable-housing-apartments/article_9b49e4e4-29a1-411e-89df-f8f753ece49a.html - [2026-04 approx.] The 1,622 figure for 2025 is the best proxy for the same area, and the colleagues' 2025 and 2020–24 numbers show every year above 1,400. The 2025 total included 1,056 in Bozeman and 154 in Belgrade, so about 412 units were in other parts of the county. 1,622 is 222 units (about 16%) above the threshold. https://www.kbzk.com/news/local-news/lets-break-down-the-2026-gallatin-valley-housing-report - [2024 report, 2022 data] Gallatin County had 2,325 permits in 2022, of which Bozeman had 1,212 and Belgrade 386. The remaining county share was about 727, which is a sizeable unincorporated base that does not depend on Bozeman multifamily. Bozeman has also averaged about 1,100 added units per year since 2018. https://archive.legmt.gov/content/Committees/Interim/2023-2024/Local-Government/Meetings/January-24-2024/2.05-2023_GAR_Housing_Report.pdf - [2026-08-11] The Montana Free Press analysis, as republished by Three Forks Voice, found Gallatin County permitting about 15.7 units per 1,000 residents in 2021–2025, up from about 15 in 2016–2020. That is the highest rate among large Montana counties. It shows the area has permitted at high rates through the 2022–25 slowdown. https://www.threeforksvoice.com/story/2026/08/11/news/what-housing-permits-do-and-dont-say-about-development/6981.html - [2026-10-15] The City of Bozeman's impact fees were adjusted on January 1, 2026. Accessory dwelling units (ADUs) became subject to impact fees on February 1, 2026. Bozeman adopts the 2024 building codes on January 1, 2027, and applications submitted on or after that date must meet the new codes. Together these create an incentive to file permits before the 2027 code change. Under the 2026 fee schedule, only permits passing prescreen on or after January 1, 2026 pay the new fees. Most of this affects timing in late 2026 and the effect is plausible but not measured. https://www.bozeman.net/departments/community-development/development-center/impact-fees **Most likely path to YES:** - Both LIHTC projects, Hidden Creek (182) and Rocky Mountain Flats (296), were permitted in 2026. - Bozeman's single-family and townhome permitting continues near 2024–25 levels, around 1,000 a year for single-family countywide. - County-wide permitting stays close to 2025's 1,622. - On those assumptions, 2026 would exceed 1,400 even with some decline from rental slowdowns. BOTTOM LINE: The case for YES is that 2025 was about 16% above the threshold, every year in 2020–25 exceeded it, and about 478 units from two large LIHTC projects that started construction in 2026 would offset a weaker market-rate rental pipeline. I could not verify the 2026 year-to-date figure. NOT FOUND: The Gallatin County / Bozeman CBSA row in the Census 2026 year-to-date file (the fetched output was truncated, and the CBSA files returned 404). Bozeman city 2026 permit counts. The permit issue dates for Rocky Mountain Flats and Hidden Creek.

YES means: the Census BPS final annual 2026 total for the Bozeman, MT CBSA is above 1,400 housing units. The argument below is for NO. - [2026 QuickFacts, 2025 data] Census QuickFacts, in a search snippet that I could not open in full (the page returned 403), gives Gallatin County "Building Permits, 2025" as 1,544 units. That is a Census figure and is 78 below the 1,622 in the realtor report that my colleagues used as the 2025 base. On the Census series, the cushion over 1,400 is about 144 units (about 9%), not 222. A further 9.3% fall would resolve NO. https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/gallatincountymontana,bozemancitymontana - [2026-06-01] Bozeman Magazine, an opinion piece citing the city's EPS Market Report and Rental Beast's Q1 2026 report, says newly built multifamily units from 2024–25 had 44.2% vacancy. It also says Bozeman had the highest rental concession rate in the US in Q1 2026 (86.6%). The 2025 city count of 1,056 was mostly multifamily. Weak lease-up reduces the number of new multifamily permits (mechanism: financing and pro-forma). The piece also says 4,632 multifamily units were added from 2020 to 2025 Q3. https://bozemanmagazine.com/articles/2026/06/01/127598-bozeman-concessions-replace-desirability - [2025-06] HUD's Bozeman market analysis (see colleagues' report) projected demand of about 2,625 homes over three years in total, rental and sales combined. That is about 875 a year, well below the 1,544 permitted in 2025. Rental demand was described as soft, so permits above demand have no fundamental support and tend to be corrected. https://www.huduser.gov/portal/publications/pdf/BozemanMT-CHMA-25.pdf - [2025-05 to 2026] The permit trend is a falling staircase: 2,325 in 2022 and 1,706 in 2024, per the 2023 and 2025 housing reports. Census shows 1,544 in 2025. It lost about 700 units in two years, and the last step was about 9%. Persistence of that trend gives about 1,400 or less in 2026. https://www.bozemandailychronicle.com/news/gallatin-county-housing-market-bozeman-montana/article_8e85d400-2941-48ef-b842-6d49ca229fbc.html - [2026-10-15] No Census 2026 data for Bozeman has been published beyond the monthly files, and the annual file is due about mid-May 2027, after the 2026-05-14 precedent. The close is 2027-05-31, so there is about 2 weeks of slack. If Census delays, the market has no "Yes" source. Delay risk is a small technical route to NO or to a non-Yes outcome. Resolution reads "final annual 2026 data". https://www.census.gov/construction/bps/index.html - [2026-09-17] National August 2026 permits were 1,394k seasonally adjusted, and Census revised that to 1,403k. This is below the 2025 level, per the 12-month decline reported on Sept 14. The Mountain division is not offsetting it. The national series has fallen for about 44 months, so there is no reason to expect a rebound. https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf - [2026-04-03] The Montana Free Press report notes that developers have slowed some projects because of vacancy. It also says about 1,900 multifamily units were built between 2024 and mid-2025, which is the likely cause. Part of the 2026 pipeline (affordable projects with funding already in place, for example Hidden Creek) is counted in the 2026 total already, so it will not push the number above trend. https://montanafreepress.org/2026/04/03/bozeman-housing-market-cools-but-a-stable-market-hasnt-meant-an-affordable-one/ - [2026-10-15] Bozeman's building code changes on 2027-01-01. Applications from 2027 on must follow the 2024 ICC codes. This is a possible incentive to pull permits into late 2026, and so a risk to the NO case. It adds to 2026, not to the 2027 count. https://www.bozemanmt.gov/departments/community-development/development-center/building-checklists-forms-and-guides BOTTOM LINE: On the Census series 2025 was 1,544, so the margin over 1,400 is about 9%. That margin is smaller than the 2022–2025 average annual fall, which happened against a backdrop of rental oversupply and national permit declines. A fall of that size from 2025 to 2026 resolves NO. NOT FOUND: The Census 2026 Bozeman CBSA year-to-date or monthly counts (the BPS files returned 404 and QuickFacts returned 403 on direct fetch). The 2025 Census annual CBSA file. The Bozeman city 2026 permit counts.