Will the combined annual-average employment in Michigan Motor Vehicle Manufacturing and Motor Vehicle Parts Manufacturing for 2026 be above 156,600 jobs?

- [2026-10-15] BLS series SMU26000003133610001 (Motor Vehicle Mfg, MI, NSA, in thousands) for 2026 reads: Jan 41.9, Feb 45.0, Mar 45.6, Apr 44.6, May 45.8, Jun 46.5, Jul 45.5, Aug 47.4 (P). Sep–Dec are not yet published. https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/SMU26000003133610001 - [2026-10-15] BLS series SMU26000003133630001 (Motor Vehicle Parts Mfg, MI, NSA) for 2026 reads: Jan 109.0, Feb 109.5, Mar 109.6, Apr 109.5, May 109.9, Jun 109.5, Jul 109.2, Aug 109.2 (P). https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/SMU26000003133630001 - [2026-10-15] My calculation from those two pages: the combined monthly values are 150.9, 154.5, 155.2, 154.1, 155.7, 156.0, 154.7 and 156.6 (Aug, the only month at the threshold and none above it). The Jan–Aug sum is 1,237.7, an average of about 154.7. A 2026 average above 156.6 needs a sum above roughly 1,879.2, so Sep–Dec must average about 160.4 or more. That is higher than any month so far this year. - [2025 comparison, same BLS pages] Combined Sep–Dec 2025 was 157.4, 156.5, 153.7 and 156.0. Oct and Nov 2025 were weak. Oct dips appear in several earlier years (2019, 2023, 2024), when the vehicle line fell to 32.9, 41.8 and 44.6. If Sep–Dec 2026 matched Sep–Dec 2025, the 2026 average would be about 155.2. https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/SMU26000003133610001 - [2026-09-18] FRED shows the Aug 2026 vehicle-manufacturing figure of 47.4 was last updated Sep 18. The next release date is Oct 20, 2026, which will bring Sep data and likely revisions. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SMU26000003133610001 - [2026-06 data, Michigan Automotive Dashboard Q2 2026] Michigan auto employment was 156,100 in June 2026, down 3,500 from a year earlier. Motor vehicle manufacturing was 46,000 (up 500) and parts was 109,600 (down 4,000). The report warns parts employment could keep falling because of trade uncertainty over steel, aluminum, copper and semiconductors, and it forecasts higher light-vehicle production in Michigan. The June vehicle figure is 46.0 here versus 46.5 on the current BLS page, which implies a later revision. https://www.michiganbusiness.org/globalassets/documents/car-medc-michigan-dashboard-q2-2026.pdf - [2026-07-28] 24/7 Wall St., citing a Bridge Michigan fact-check, reports Michigan lost about 4,000 auto parts jobs (-3.5%) in the year to June 2026, while vehicle manufacturing added about 500. https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/07/28/trump-tells-gm-workers-ive-done-more-for-you-than-your-parents-michigan-lost-4000-auto-parts-jobs-this-year/ - [2026-10 national context] National motor vehicle manufacturing was 297.4 in Aug 2026 (p), up 8.4 on the year. National parts was 516.6 (p), down 6.9 on the year. This matches Michigan's split: vehicles up, parts down. https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iagauto.htm - [2026-10-02 FRED, national motor vehicles and parts, SA] National motor vehicles and parts employment was 962.5 (p) in Sep 2026, against 960.9 (p) in Aug and 968.2 in Jul. This shows no sharp national jump. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES3133600101 - [Scheduled] BLS state data for Sep 2026 is due Oct 20, 2026. Oct data would follow in roughly late Nov or Dec, and Nov and Dec data in Jan 2027. The 2026 annual average will come with the Dec data and may be affected by the annual benchmark revision (the BLS "Special Notices 1/14/2026" banner on its pages is unexplained). I did not confirm the exact dates for these later releases. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SMU26000003133610001 BOTTOM LINE: Through Aug 2026 the combined average is about 154.7, roughly 1.9 below the threshold, and the Aug value (156.6) is the only month at it. Sep–Dec would need to average about 160.4, above any month this year and 2025's Sep–Dec pattern, so the data currently point to a No unless there is a large upward surprise or revision. NOT FOUND: Sep 2026 Michigan values (due Oct 20). Any recent (last 7–14 days) news of Michigan plant layoffs, strikes or hiring surges. Confirmed dates for the Oct–Dec releases.

- [2026-09-18] BLS data (via API) shows Jan–Aug 2026 NSA values for Michigan motor vehicle mfg (SMU26000003133610001) of 41.9, 45.0, 45.6, 44.6, 45.8, 46.5, 45.5 and 47.4 (Aug is preliminary). The matching parts series (…3630001) reads 109.0, 109.5, 109.6, 109.5, 109.9, 109.5, 109.2 and 109.2. The 8-month combined average is about 154.7k, which is 1.9k below the 156.6k threshold. FRED lists the next release as 2026-10-20. https://api.bls.gov/publicAPI/v2/timeseries/data/SMU26000003133610001?startyear=2023&endyear=2026 ; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SMU26000003133610001 - [2026-09-18] Arithmetic on those figures: the 12-month sum must exceed 1,879.2k. Jan–Aug sums to 1,237.7k, so Sep–Dec must average above about 160.4k per month. Aug 2026 was 156.6k, so the threshold sits exactly at the latest monthly value. https://api.bls.gov/publicAPI/v2/timeseries/data/SMU26000003133630001?startyear=2023&endyear=2026 - [2025 Sep–Dec, same BLS series] The combined values were 157.4, 156.5, 153.7 and 156.0, averaging about 155.9k. That is well below 160.4k, and the monthly values include a typical Oct/Nov dip. The 2025 annual average computed from the monthly values was about 156.5k (vehicles about 44.9k plus parts about 111.7k), pre-benchmark. https://api.bls.gov/publicAPI/v2/timeseries/data/SMU26000003133610001?startyear=2023&endyear=2026 - [2024 Sep–Dec, same BLS series] The combined values were 168.4, 156.4, 163.9 and 165.9. Late-year values were higher in 2024, but the series has since fallen. Parts employment dropped from about 118k to about 110k. 2026 monthly parts values have been flat at 109–110k. https://api.bls.gov/publicAPI/v2/timeseries/data/SMU26000003133630001?startyear=2023&endyear=2026 - [2026-Q2] The Center for Automotive Research (CAR) dashboard puts combined Michigan auto employment at 156,100 in June 2026, down 3,500 year over year (YoY), with Q1 2026 at 155,200. Vehicle mfg was 46.0k (+0.5k YoY) and parts 109.6k (−4.0k YoY). CAR expects Michigan production to rise but parts employment to keep declining on tariff and trade uncertainty. Michigan H1 light-vehicle output was up 3.7%. https://www.michiganbusiness.org/globalassets/documents/car-medc-michigan-dashboard-q2-2026.pdf - [2026-10-09] WARN notices show Lear closing its Sterling Heights site (67 layoffs, Nov 9) and Dakkota closing a Lansing-area site (67 layoffs, Dec 31). These are small but point to further parts-sector attrition in Q4. https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/2026/10/09/auto-suppliers-lear-dakkota-among-firms-cutting-jobs-in-michigan/92175929007/ - [2026-08-17] GM will lay off 350 workers at Lansing Grand River and Lansing Regional Stamping on 2027-01-14 for retooling. CT5 production ends 2026-12-17, so the effect on 2026 averages is minimal (a December wind-down at most). https://gmauthority.com/blog/2026/08/gm-laying-off-350-workers-at-lansing-grand-river-plant-in-january-2027/ - [2026-03-31] GM idled Factory Zero from Mar 16 to about mid-April, with 1,300 temporary layoffs, after cutting 1,200 permanent positions in Oct 2025. This is already in the 2026 data. https://electrek.co/2026/03/31/gm-factory-zero-idled-again-1300-workers-laid-off/ - [Base-rate view] Annual averages in this series are driven mainly by the trend plus strike or retool months. Since 2023 the combined annual average has fallen each year (2023 about 172k, 2024 about 168k, 2025 about 156.5k, from monthly data). For 2026 to beat 156.6k, Sep–Dec must jump about 5k above the Aug level and about 4.5k above the same months of 2025. Nothing in the sources shows that kind of surge. I found no historical event of a rise like that from a flat trend outside post-shutdown rebounds. - [Revision risk] The annual-average figure is published after the March 2027 benchmark revision. This can shift levels by a few thousand, in either direction. Monthly 2026 values may also be revised, and Aug 2026 is still preliminary. I did not quantify typical benchmark revisions for these series. BOTTOM LINE: 2026 year-to-date averages about 154.7k combined, so the rest of the year would need to average about 160.4k, versus about 156k in Aug 2026 and about 155.9k in Sep–Dec 2025. On the outside view the base rate favors NO, with benchmark revision as the main upside risk. NOT FOUND: Published forecasts of Michigan 2026 annual auto employment, and any other prediction-market strikes for this series. The Sept 2026 state data (release 2026-10-20) and the typical size of benchmark revisions for these series.

YES means: the sum of the 2026 annual-average values for BLS series SMU26000003133610001 and SMU26000003133630001 (as published after the March 2027 benchmark) is above 156.6 thousand. - [2026-08-28] BLS's preliminary benchmark covers March 2026. Final benchmarks come with the January 2027 state release in March 2027. That final benchmark will revise not-seasonally-adjusted data from April 2025 through December 2026. The 2026 figures the contract resolves on are therefore not yet fixed. This is the only mechanism that can move the whole Jan–Aug base (about 154.7). https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/presae_08282026.htm - [2026-08-28] The national preliminary benchmark was -67k for manufacturing (-0.5%) and -79k for total nonfarm. This is a downward revision, so the national benchmark does not support an upward revision for YES. Michigan's own preliminary figure for these series was not found. For YES, the Michigan motor vehicle series would need a positive revision of roughly +1.9k combined (about +1.2%) on average. The average absolute state revision was 0.4%, so that is possible but larger than typical. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/prebmk.t01.htm - [2026-10-15] The vehicle series is at a high: Aug 47.4 (P), up 1.8 on the year per BLS. That is the strongest month in 2026. If the vehicle series reaches 48–50 in Sep–Dec on a fall ramp-up, the combined total could approach 158–160 in some months. Parts has been flat at 109.2–109.9 since January. The upside in the first ten months is therefore concentrated in assembly. https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iagauto.htm - [2025-10-23] Ford announced a third crew of 1,200 at Dearborn Truck, ramping "from the first quarter of 2026". It also announced 90 hires at Dearborn Stamping and 80 at Dearborn Diversified Manufacturing, totalling up to 900 new jobs at Rouge. Part of this is transfers from the Rouge EV Center, so net new hiring is smaller. These jobs fall in the vehicle series and may not all have been in the data by Aug. A fuller ramp-up in Q4 is the most direct path to Sep–Dec above 160. https://www.fromtheroad.ford.com/us/en/articles/2025/ford-f-150-super-duty-demand-production-job-increase - [2026-07-27] The White House cites a third shift at Dearborn Truck. It also cites Stellantis's $100M for added Warren production and $140M for Detroit expansion, GM's Flint overtime shift and Detroit Diesel recalling laid-off workers with a third shift. Detroit Diesel is a parts/engine employer. These are partisan claims, and the Bridge Michigan fact-check shows parts jobs still fell year on year. They do indicate that Q4 assembly and powertrain recalls were underway. https://www.whitehouse.gov/releases/2026/07/made-in-michigan-again-president-trumps-trade-agenda-is-supercharging-american-auto-manufacturing/ - [2026-Q2] The CAR/MEDC dashboard shows Michigan Q2 2026 production of 482k units, up 7.2% on the quarter and 1.4% on the year. It states that forecast production increases support "some optimism" for automaker employment. The same document says parts could keep declining. https://www.michiganbusiness.org/globalassets/documents/car-medc-michigan-dashboard-q2-2026.pdf - [2026-10-15] The ordering of the Q2 dashboard's figures hints at revision direction. The dashboard's June 2026 vehicle figure was 46.0, and the current BLS page shows 46.5. The 0.5 upward revision between vintages shows that later vintages have been revising vehicle employment up. This is a single observation, so treat it as weak evidence. https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iagauto.htm - [2026-10-02] National motor vehicles and parts employment (SA) was 962.5 (p) in Sep, up from 960.9 in Aug but below July's 968.2. That is stable, and it does not show the national drop that would make a Michigan Q4 surge implausible. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES3133600101 - [2026-10-15] Staffing offsets for YES are weak on current data. Stellantis hiring postings (Indeed, Glassdoor) are mostly salaried or supervisor roles, which are not new-line headcount. An Indeed review dated June 2026 says Sterling Heights runs seven days with three shifts, which means it is already at capacity and gives no further upside. https://www.indeed.com/cmp/Stellantis/locations/MI/Sterling%20Heights Most likely path to YES: all of the following together. 1. Ford, Stellantis and GM assembly headcount rises further (vehicle series at 48–50 in Sep–Dec, with no October dip like 2023/24). 2. Parts holds at about 109–110 with no further loss. 3. The final benchmark in March 2027 revises the Apr–Dec 2026 levels up by 1–2k. That combination is needed because Sep–Dec must average about 160.4 on current vintages. The last two prerequisites are the less demanding ones. A benchmark revision alone could close part of the 1.9 gap, but it cannot close all of it without Q4 strength. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES case rests on a rising vehicle series (Aug 47.4), Ford's Dearborn third crew and similar ramp-ups, and an upward benchmark revision on the affected months. Even so, the case needs a Q4 jump well above anything seen in 2026, a revision larger than the typical 0.4%, or both. NOT FOUND: Michigan's preliminary benchmark revision for these two series. Sep 2026 state data (due 2026-10-20). Any report of confirmed Q4 2026 Michigan assembly hiring numbers. Typical benchmark revision sizes for these series.

YES means: the 2026 annual averages of Michigan motor vehicle manufacturing (SMU26000003133610001) and parts manufacturing (SMU26000003133630001) sum to more than 156.6 thousand jobs. - [2026-10-14] Demand into Q4 looks soft, which cuts against the Sep–Dec jump of roughly 5k that YES needs. Foley's update says YTD US light-vehicle sales through September are down 1.9% on the year. Q3 sales fell 6.6% at Ford and 5.5% at GM, and Stellantis North America dropped 12%. US new-vehicle inventories passed 3 million units in early October, so the pressure is to trim output, not to hire. https://natlawreview.com/article/foley-automotive-update-october-14-2026 - [2026-10-14] Stellantis will suspend its Windsor, Ontario, assembly plant for several weeks from Oct 19, citing "market conditions". This is a Canadian plant, so it does not count directly. It does show Detroit Three production cuts in Q4 and weakens any thesis of a late-year production surge. https://natlawreview.com/article/foley-automotive-update-october-14-2026 - [2026-10-15] New parts-sector closure: J.G. Kern Enterprises in Sterling Heights will close and lay off 156 workers after Ford ended its business. This is separate from the Lear and Dakkota notices (67 each) already reported. It adds to Q4 parts attrition. The trend in parts was already about −2.6k year on year as of Aug 2026. https://hoodline.com/2026/10/sterling-heights-supplier-to-shut-down-lay-off-156-after-ford-pulls-business - [2026-10-15] The parts series needs to rise, not fall, for YES, and BLS shows it flat to down. BLS's state table shows 2025 annual averages of 44.9 for vehicles and 111.7 for parts. The 2026 parts readings of 109.2–109.9 sit 2+ below that 2025 average, and the Aug 2026 12-month change was −2.6. Parts is the larger component, and it has no upward momentum. https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iagauto.htm - [2026-10-02] National NSA motor vehicles and parts employment was 968.0 (p) in Sep 2026, against 965.6 (p) in Aug, a gain of +2.4. The 12-month change is only +2.7. National parts, the bulk of Michigan's total, was −6.9 year on year in Aug. The national Sep SA figure of 962.5 rose only 1.6 on the month. A Michigan jump of about 5k in one quarter is not visible in the national data. https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iagauto.htm - [2026-08-28] Benchmark risk is two-sided and small on average. BLS's preliminary March 2026 benchmark shows an average absolute state revision of 0.4%, with an average revision of 0.0%. Michigan total nonfarm is about 4.4M, so 0.4% is about 18k jobs statewide. Applied to a 156k auto cell this is about ±0.6k at the same percentage. Industry-detail cells can move more, but there is no evidence of a bias large enough to add about 2k to the annual average. Final benchmark data arrive with the January 2027 state release in March 2027, still before the Apr 30, 2027 close. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/presae_08282026.htm - [2026-08-14] GM's Lansing retool layoff of 350 starts Jan 14, 2027, so it is outside 2026. WLNS says the retooling is expected to run through the end of next year. This does not lower the 2026 average, but it means no new Lansing hiring is coming. https://www.wlns.com/lansing/general-motors-laying-off-350-lansing-employees/ - [2025-10-23] The one known identified positive is Ford's plan, made after the Novelis fire, to add up to 900 jobs at the Rouge complex for a third F-150 crew in 2026. That was announced a year ago and is plausibly already in the Jan–Aug 2026 vehicle readings (41.9 rising to 47.4). It is not a new Q4 catalyst. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20251023640434/en - [2026-06] CAR/MEDC's Q2 dashboard has June 2026 at 156,100 with the parts figure revised down 4,000 on the year. The dashboard also warns parts employment "could continue to decline". The Aug combined of 156.6 therefore sits 0.5 above June and is itself preliminary and revisable. The 12-month average cannot reach 156.6 unless Sep–Dec reaches about 160.4 on average. https://www.michiganbusiness.org/globalassets/documents/car-medc-michigan-dashboard-q2-2026.pdf BOTTOM LINE: YES needs Sep–Dec to average about 160.4k, roughly 3.8k above the Aug level of 156.6k, in a quarter with weak sales, rising inventory, new parts closures and no strike or rebound catalyst. The status quo of flat-to-down parts and a seasonal Oct/Nov dip points to a 2026 average of about 155k, and benchmark revision is probably too small to close the gap. NOT FOUND: Sep 2026 Michigan state values (due Oct 20). Michigan-specific Q4 production schedules or hiring announcements for Q4 2026. Typical size of benchmark revisions for these two Michigan industry cells. A bridge between the Aug preliminary value and its final revision.