Will New Hampshire’s seasonally adjusted Purchase-Only House Price Index for Q4 2026 be above 478.68?

I could not read the NH rows of the FHFA state file directly, because the fetch tool truncated the middle of the file. The NH levels below are back-calculated from FHFA's published percentage changes and are my derivation, not a published figure. - [2026-08-25] FHFA's Q2 2026 state table (seasonally adjusted purchase-only) shows NH ranked 23rd. NH rose 1.06% over the quarter, 3.13% over the year and 46.09% over five years, and is up 385.58% since 1991. https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi/datasets - [2026-08-25] Derived NH SA index levels (1991Q1=100): - Q2 2026 is about 485.58 (100 + 385.58). - Q1 2026 is about 480.49 (485.58 / 1.0106). - Q2 2025 is about 470.84 (485.58 / 1.0313). - The 478.68 strike is most likely the Q4 2025 SA value, which fits between those levels. The rules say it is fixed. - Q2 2026 is therefore about 6.9 points (1.4%) above the strike. Q4 2026 only needs to avoid falling more than about 1.4% from the Q2 level. https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi/datasets - [2026-08-25] The FHFA US purchase-only index rose 2.1% year over year and 0.3% quarter over quarter in Q2 2026. New England rose 0.93% over the quarter and 3.78% over the year. https://www.fhfa.gov/news/news-release/u.s.-house-prices-rise-2.1-percent-year-over-year-up-0.3-percent-quarter-over-quarter - [2026-08-25] The US YoY rate was 2.13% in Q2 2026, versus 1.88% in Q1 2026 and 2.03% in Q4 2025, after five straight quarters of deceleration. https://www.stateeconomicwatch.com/2026/08/fhfa-index-improves-in-2q2026.html - [2026-09-29] The latest FHFA monthly report (data through July 2026) shows US prices up 0.3% month over month and 2.6% year over year. Division 12-month changes ranged from +0.6% (Mountain) to +6.3% (Middle Atlantic). https://www.fhfa.gov/ - [2026-09-29] That same report says the next monthly release is October 27, 2026, covering August data. https://www.fhfa.gov/document/d/hpi/fhfa-hpi-monthly-september-2026 - [2026-10-15] Scheduled FHFA releases before the market closes: - October 27: monthly index, August data. - November 24: quarterly index, September data and Q3 2026. This is the first release with NH Q3. - December 29: monthly index, October data. - January 26, 2027: monthly index, November data. - February 23, 2027: quarterly index, December 2026 and Q4 2026. - The Q4 release falls before the February 28, 2027 close. https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi - [2026-10-08] NH Realtors data shows the September single-family median at $569,900, up from $535,000 a year earlier and flat versus August. Condo median was $415,000, up 2.1%. 30-year mortgage rates moved above 7% in late September, from 6.67% in August. https://manchester.inklink.news/rate-increase-makes-new-hampshire-homes-less-affordable-than-theyve-ever-been/ - [2026-10] Redfin shows September NH median sale price of $529,479, up 3.8% year over year. Sales were down 1.3% and listings up 9.9%. The page is badly stale: its age metadata says 826 days. https://www.redfin.com/state/New-Hampshire/housing-market - [2026-08-31] Zillow shows NH home values at $516,306, up 2.9% year over year. https://www.zillow.com/home-values/39/nh/ - [2026-09-28] N.H. Housing reports a record statewide median of $575,000 this year. https://vnews.com/2026/09/28/nh-home-prices-record-high/ - [2026-08-25] FRED's all-transactions NH index (a different series, not the resolution series) rose from 896.32 in Q4 2025 to 904.31 in Q1 2026 and 920.17 in Q2 2026. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/NHSTHPI.txt BOTTOM LINE: NH's Q2 2026 SA purchase-only index (about 485.6, derived) is already about 1.4% above the 478.68 strike. Local data through September 2026 shows prices still up year over year, so Q4 2026 only needs to avoid a drop of more than about 1.4% from Q2. The resolving value arrives in the February 23, 2027 release. NOT FOUND: The exact published NH indexsa values for Q4 2025, Q1 2026 and Q2 2026, because the fetched state file was truncated in the middle. NH figures for the August and September 2026 monthly data and for Q3 2026, which are not yet released. Any NH-specific forecast of FHFA Q4.

- [2026-08-25] The latest NH seasonally adjusted purchase-only HPI is 485.58 for Q2 2026. That is 1.06% above Q1 (480.50) and 3.13% above Q2 2025 (470.86). The strike of 478.68 is therefore about 1.4% below the current level. The strike was the Q4 2025 value as first published; the revised Q4 2025 value is now 478.20. https://ycharts.com/indicators/new_hampshire_house_price_purchase_only_index - [2026-08-25] FHFA's own report confirms NH at rank 23, with +3.13% over one year and +1.06% over the quarter. https://www.fhfa.gov/document/d/hpi/fhfa-house-price-index-report-2026q2 - [2026-08-25] The NH series has risen year over year in every quarter since at least 2014, per the ycharts history. The Q4-2024 to Q4-2025 change was about +3.8% (460.78 to 478.20). The year-over-year change has been positive in all of 2020–2026. The vintage that ycharts shows for Q1 2025 and Q2 2025 was revised down by roughly 0.1–0.2%. https://ycharts.com/indicators/new_hampshire_house_price_purchase_only_index - [2026-08-25] Quarter-over-quarter declines in NH are rare in the post-2014 history. The only ones I can see are Q1 2017 (230.31 vs 229.97 in Q2 is not a decline, but Q1 2017 was up from Q4 2016's 222.12), Q2 2022 to Q3 2022 (flat to slightly down at 386.68 to 386.60), and Q4 2014 vs Q3 2014 (an increase). For Q4 2026 to fall below 478.68 from 485.58, NH would need a drop of more than 1.4% from Q2 within two quarters. That is a bigger fall than any in the ycharts list since 2014, apart from the roughly flat 2022 patch. https://ycharts.com/indicators/new_hampshire_house_price_purchase_only_index - [2026-08-25] The NH quarterly series is noisy. In Q1 2026 it rose only 0.25% (it was 0.25% in the earlier vintage). Q2 then rose 1.06%. State-level quarterly noise of about ±1% is common. Neighbouring Maine fell 1.30% in Q2 2026. https://www.fhfa.gov/document/d/hpi/fhfa-house-price-index-report-2026q2 - [2026-08-25] The national purchase-only HPI was up 2.13% year over year and 0.35% quarter over quarter in Q2 2026. The national four-quarter change has been positive every quarter since 2012. New England was up 3.78% over the year and 0.93% over the quarter. The New England monthly index fell 0.8% from May to June 2026 (455.5 to 451.9). https://www.fhfa.gov/document/d/hpi/fhfa-house-price-index-report-2026q2 - [2026-09-29] The national monthly FHFA HPI for July 2026 was up 0.3% on the month and 2.6% on the year. This is the latest monthly data, and it suggests national momentum is holding up. The next monthly report, due 2026-10-27, covers August. https://www.fhfa.gov/document/d/hpi/fhfa-hpi-monthly-september-2026 - [2026-10 (Sept data)] Redfin shows the NH median sale price for September 2026 at $529,479, up 3.8% year over year. Zillow's NH typical home value (updated 2026-08-31) was $516,306, up 2.9% year over year. Both point to continued modest nominal appreciation in NH. https://www.redfin.com/state/New-Hampshire/housing-market - [2026-08-25] FHFA's published schedule puts the Q4 2026 quarterly release on Tuesday 2027-02-23 (December 2026 and 2026Q4 data), before the 2027-02-28 market close. The Q3 2026 release is on 2026-11-24. https://www.fhfa.gov/document/d/hpi/fhfa-house-price-index-report-2026q2 - [2026-08-25] Revision risk: FHFA revises prior quarters each release. The Q1 2026 NH value moved from 479.86 to 480.50, and the Q4 2025 value moved from 478.68 to 478.20. Revisions are typically under 0.3%, small against the 1.4% cushion. The strike is fixed and does not move with revisions. https://ycharts.com/indicators/new_hampshire_house_price_purchase_only_index - [2026-10-15] Mortgage-rate and affordability headwinds are reported in recent news. Rates were around 7.03% in late September 2026 and homebuilder confidence was at a 12-month low. A mid-September commentary also mentioned prospects of a Fed hike. This is a downside risk to price growth, but there is no sign of a state-level price drop. https://ycharts.com/indicators/new_hampshire_house_price_purchase_only_index BOTTOM LINE: NH's index (485.58 in Q2 2026) is already about 1.4% above the 478.68 strike. Historically the NH series has rarely fallen that much over two quarters outside the 2008–2011 bust. The outside view therefore leans strongly toward YES, with the main risks being noisy state-level quarterly moves and revisions. NOT FOUND: The NH Q3 2026 value (not due until 2026-11-24). A NH-specific forecast of Q4 2026. Any sibling Kalshi strikes for NH or other states. The NH-specific monthly or quarterly data for July–September 2026. The raw FHFA state CSV, which came back as an Excel file I could not read. I took the NH history from ycharts, which mirrors the FHFA data.

YES means: FHFA's Q4 2026 New Hampshire seasonally adjusted purchase-only HPI (indexsa) is above 478.68 when published, which is scheduled for Feb 23, 2027. - [2026-08-10] The most likely path to YES is simple persistence. NH's Q2 2026 index is already about 1.4% above the strike (per the colleagues' reports). It then needs to avoid a fall of more than about 1.4% over two quarters. The prerequisite is that NH local prices stay flat or rise through Q4, and the evidence below points that way. The NH Realtors July median hit a record $580,000, up 5.5% from a year earlier. Sales rose 10.4% and pending sales 7.2%. The Bulletin reports NH "defying" the cooling seen in Florida, Texas and Colorado. Months' supply was 2.7, against 2.5 a year earlier. https://newhampshirebulletin.com/2026/08/10/new-hampshire-home-prices-set-a-record-bucking-a-national-trend/ - [2026-09-13] NH single-family data for August 2026 (current as of Sept 5, fetched). The median was $569,900, up 3.6% year over year. The year-to-date median was $560,000, up 3.7%. Pending sales were up 17.3% and closings up 1.6%. Inventory was 3,055 homes, up 18.7%, with 2.8 months' supply. That is a seller's-market reading, below the 4-month balance point, and demand is not collapsing. https://beangroup.com/market-reports/august-2026-new-hampshire-housing-report/ - [2026-09-13] Condos in August: the median was $434,900, up 4.3%, with 2.3 months' supply. Inventory was up only 3.0%. https://beangroup.com/market-reports/august-2026-new-hampshire-housing-report/ - [2026-10-11] The September single-family median of $569,900 was up from $535,000 a year earlier (about +6.5%). It was flat versus August. The condo median rose 2.1%. Hillsborough, the largest county, was flat year over year at about $570,000. The late-September rate rise above 7% is the main flagged risk, but it showed no price effect in the September data. https://nashua.inklink.news/rate-increase-makes-new-hampshire-homes-less-affordable-than-theyve-ever-been/ - [2026-07] First-half 2026 PrimeMLS data: the average price rose 5.1% year over year. Single-family rose 6.5% and condos 2.3%. New listings rose 6.2% and sales 4.3%. This is more evidence that H1 appreciation was broad-based and not driven by a thin sample. https://www.lamacchiarealty.com/2026-nh-mid-year/ - [2026-09-29] The FHFA monthly report (data through July) puts the national 12-month change at +2.6%, up from +2.2% in May. National momentum is improving, not rolling over. The nine-division 12-month range was +0.6% (Mountain) to +6.3% (Middle Atlantic). https://www.fhfa.gov/document/d/hpi/fhfa-hpi-monthly-september-2026 - [2026-07-28] FHFA's New England 12-month change was 3.9% in the May report. That compares with 3.3% in the Q2 quarterly report. Both are well positive, and the June New England monthly dip (−0.8%) did not erase the year-over-year gain. https://www.fhfa.gov/document/d/hpi/fhfa-hpi-monthly-july-2026 and https://www.fhfa.gov/document/d/hpi/fhfa-house-price-index-report-2026q2 - [2026-10-15] Timing is favourable. FHFA's calendar lists the Q4 release on Feb 23, 2027, five days before the Feb 28 close. The Q3 print on Nov 24 will give an early read. The fixed 478.68 strike also sits above the revised Q4 2025 value of 478.20 (colleague report). The cushion therefore comes from Q1 and Q2 2026 growth that is already in the data. https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi - [2026-09-30] N.H. Housing's 2026 report shows record medians approaching $600K and a persistent supply shortage. The issue it flags is affordability, not falling prices. Pressure on prices is still upward, as the supply constraint persists. https://www.nhpr.org/nh-news/2026-09-30/home-prices-outpaced-incomes-newhampshire-housing BOTTOM LINE: Every local indicator through September 2026 (record medians, rising year-over-year prices, pending sales up, supply still under 3 months) is consistent with the NH index holding above its Q2 level of about 485.6. YES needs only that Q4 stays within about 1.4% below Q2, so it should resolve YES unless a sharp two-quarter reversal or a large noisy state-level drop occurs. NOT FOUND: NH-specific FHFA data for Q3 2026 (due Nov 24). The published NH indexsa values read directly from the FHFA file. Any NH-specific Q4 forecast. Any sibling Kalshi strikes.

YES means: FHFA's NH Q4 2026 seasonally adjusted purchase-only index (indexsa), as published, is above 478.68. This is the strongest NO case. It is thin: the evidence points toward YES, and the NO paths are narrow. - [2026-09-29] New England's seasonally adjusted monthly index was 453.9 in July 2026. That equals the Q2 monthly average (Apr 453.7, May 455.7, Jun 452.4, which averages about 453.9). New England has therefore stalled since Q2, with a 12-month gain of 4.1%, down from 4.3%. Of the nine divisions, only the Mountain and Pacific divisions are at or below 0.7% annually. A stall at the regional level removes the quarterly lift that has been widening NH's cushion over the strike. https://www.fhfa.gov/document/d/hpi/fhfa-hpi-monthly-september-2026 - [2026-09-29] The regional series is noisy month to month. New England moved -0.7%/-0.8% in June, +0.4% in May and +0.8% in April. NH is a small state with a state-level index built on fewer repeat sales, so it is noisier than the division. A swing of 1.4% or more over two quarters is plausible in that noise but is not typical. The FHFA monthly file does not carry state rows, so no NH monthly path exists for Jul–Sep. https://www.fhfa.gov/document/d/hpi/fhfa-hpi-monthly-september-2026 - [2026-10-13] Mortgage-rate headwinds have worsened since the Q2 data. Freddie Mac's 30-year rate averaged 7.40% for the week ending Oct 8, up from 7.28% on Oct 1. Another outlet said that on Oct 13, rates were "more than 7.4%" and that prices were "flattening or falling". The Q4 index is built from contracts that mostly close Oct–Dec, so these rates feed straight into it. https://www.wsiu.org/economy/2026-10-13/mortgage-rates-climb-as-home-prices-flatten-or-fall-is-it-a-good-time-to-buy - [2026-10-13] Rates are falling slightly in mid-October. The 10-year Treasury yield was 5.19% on Oct 13 (down from 5.24%), and mortgage rates fell five straight days through Oct 14. The 10-year yield above 5% supports a "higher for longer" case. The pullback is small against the rise from a Feb low of 5.98%. https://themortgagereports.com/mortgage-rates-now/mortgage-rates-today-october-13-2026 - [2026-10-08] Redfin's NH September data shows demand softening under the headline +3.8% price gain. Homes selling above list were 36.9%, down 6.3 points year over year. Homes with price drops were 14.6%, up from 13.0%. Median days on market were 46, up 5. The sale-to-list ratio was 99.5%, down 0.2 points. These are leading indicators of a flattening. Redfin's page carries stale age metadata, but the September figures are reported on it. https://www.redfin.com/state/New-Hampshire/housing-market - [2026-08-10] NH has been "bucking" the national slowdown, and that is itself a mean-reversion risk. The NH Bulletin says national asking prices fell for nine straight months and national sale prices were up only 2.2% year over year in June. NH's Q2 jump of 1.06% followed a Q1 gain of only 0.25%. A strong Q2 prints partly on seasonally adjusted lake-town and ski-town sales. If Q3–Q4 payback occurs, the cushion above 478.68 could shrink. https://newhampshirebulletin.com/2026/08/10/new-hampshire-home-prices-set-a-record-bucking-a-national-trend/ - [2026-09-28] The NH Housing record median ($575,000) comes from the first seven months of the year. It says nothing about Q3–Q4 and mostly reflects the spring–summer mix. Median-price series are not repeat-sales indexes. The FHFA purchase-only index also excludes cash sales, jumbo loans and most government-backed loans, so it can diverge from the headline medians. https://vnews.com/2026/09/28/nh-home-prices-record-high/ - [2026-10-15] Resolution technicalities that favour NO are minor. The rule uses the "indexsa" value as published at resolution. The threshold is fixed at 478.68. The Q4 release is scheduled for Feb 23, 2027, with only 5 days to the Feb 28 close. A delay would push resolution past the close, and the market could resolve No or be handled by Kalshi's fallback. The FHFA schedule page lists no delay. I found no precedent in these pages for a slipped release. https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi - [2026-10-15] A second technicality is revisions. The Q2 report said Q2 2026 was +1.06% on Q1, and Q4 2025 had been revised from 478.68 to 478.20. Revisions cut both ways. Each release also restates history, so Q4 2026 as first published could land lower than the current path implies. The strike has no revision protection. https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi/datasets - [2026-08-25] The startbusinessbystate.com page says Q2 2026 is NH's all-time peak (below peak +0.0%, "now"). A series at its peak has the least slack in the other direction. Its table also shows NH's one-year change slowing from +3.5% in Q1 to +3.1% in Q2, even as the quarterly gain rose. That figure uses the not-seasonally-adjusted index, so it is not the resolving series. https://startbusinessbystate.com/home-prices-falling-by-state/ BOTTOM LINE: The NO case needs NH's seasonally adjusted index to fall about 1.4% or more from Q2 within two quarters. The evidence for that is a stalled New England regional index, rates near 7.4%, softening Redfin demand indicators and noisy state-level prints. The scheduled Feb 23 release leaves only a small delay or technicality risk. This is a tail path, not the base case. NOT FOUND: NH-specific monthly or Q3 2026 FHFA values (Q3 is due Nov 24). I could not fetch the ycharts history page (HTTP 202), so I did not re-verify the NH quarterly series. I also found no sibling Kalshi strikes and no NH-specific forecast of Q4 2026.