Will South Carolina total container volume for 2026 be above 2.5 million TEUs?

- [2026-10-15] The resolution source, SC Ports' "TEU History with Totals – Calendar Year to Date" PDF, is live. Its text extraction is garbled, so the month assignment below is my own reading. It lists a 2026 year-to-date total of 1,794,157 TEUs. Nine monthly 2026 figures sum to that total: 191,991, 177,811, 218,673, 183,254, 214,478, 199,694, 202,699, 203,786 and 201,773. I read them as January through September, which implies a September 2026 figure of 201,773 TEUs. January plus February (191,991 + 177,811 = 369,802) matches the Jan–Feb total in the PMSA report below. Source: http://scspa.com/wp-content/uploads/teu-history.pdf - [2026-10-15] The same PDF shows a calendar-year 2025 total of 2,565,297 TEUs. That is the last value in the Total column; the extraction is not clearly labelled. The calendar-year totals for 2024 and 2023 read about 2.50M and 2.48M. No 2026 full-year total exists yet. Source: http://scspa.com/wp-content/uploads/teu-history.pdf - [2026-10-15] Arithmetic from the PDF: to exceed 2.5M, October–December 2026 need more than 705,843 TEUs, about 235k a month. No 2026 month in the PDF exceeds about 219k (March, 218,673). The 2026 monthly average so far is about 199k. Source: http://scspa.com/wp-content/uploads/teu-history.pdf - [2026-09-27] Post and Courier (via Yahoo): container volume fell year over year for the 11th straight month in August. Charleston is on a slump that began in September 2025. July plus August pier containers were about 224,000, down 8% year over year and slightly below projections. Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/sc-ports-container-slump-approaching-090000083.html - [2026-09-27] CEO Micah Mallace called market signals "mixed". The article says the National Retail Federation's predicted late holiday-import rush is mostly heading to the West Coast and isn't likely to help Charleston. Georgia and Virginia ports also slowed over the past two months. Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/sc-ports-container-slump-approaching-090000083.html - [2026-08-19] SC Daily Gazette: the Ports Authority reported a 4.6% drop in containers in fiscal 2026 (year ended June 30). Revenue was about $401M, roughly 5% below budget. Leatherman Terminal was idled as of Aug. 1 to cut costs. Source: https://scdailygazette.com/2026/08/19/less-cargo-has-sc-ports-authority-cutting-its-way-toward-growth/ - [2026-09] PMSA: August 2026 Charleston laden imports were 100,502 TEUs, down 9.2% year over year. Laden exports were down 2.7%. The National Retail Federation's Global Port Tracker projected U.S. imports down 2.2% in September and about flat in October. Source: https://www.pmsaship.com/maritime-insights-blog/august-2026-container-traffic-at-north-american-ports - [2026-05] PMSA: Charleston May 2026 laden imports were up 14.7% year over year, against a weak May 2025 comparison. This is an isolated gain. Source: https://www.pmsaship.com/maritime-insights-blog/may-2026-container-traffic-at-north-american-ports - [2026-03] PMSA: Charleston February 2026 laden imports were down 21.9% year over year. Source: https://www.pmsaship.com/maritime-insights-blog/february2026teusfinal - [2026-10-27, scheduled] CEO Mallace gives his "State of the Port" address, with the keynote keyword "Momentum". The Authority may release more fiscal-year detail then. Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/sc-ports-container-slump-approaching-090000083.html - [2026-09-23, listing seen] A Coinbase listing, apparently of the same event, shows a 2.4M-TEU strike alongside this 2.5M one. Source: https://www.coinbase.com/predictions/event/KXSCPORTTEU-27JAN31 BOTTOM LINE: Through September, 2026 stands at about 1.794M TEUs. Exceeding 2.5M would need about 706k TEUs in Q4, roughly 235k a month. That is above every month so far this year, and volumes have been about 200k a month amid a year-long year-over-year decline. A sustained, unusual surge would be required. NOT FOUND: A separate SC Ports press release for September 2026 volumes. Clean month labels on the PDF (I inferred them from sums and the PMSA cross-check). October 2026 data (not yet released).

- [2026-10-15] The SC Ports TEU History PDF, the resolution source, lists calendar-year totals. The PDF text came through scrambled, so this reading is my own parse. Ascending from 2006, the last two values are 2025 = 2,565,297 and 2026 year-to-date = 1,794,157. Other values read from the same list: 2021 = 2,751,442, 2022 = 2,792,313, 2023 = 2,482,080 and 2024 = 2,497,143. I could not confirm which month the 2026 figure runs through. https://scspa.com/wp-content/uploads/teu-history.pdf - [2026-10-15] The 2026 year-to-date figure fits January–September better than January–August, on my rough check. Assuming a roughly 8% year-over-year decline, 2025 January–September would be about 1.96M. Cutting that by 8% gives about 1.8M. If the figure ran only through August, it would imply growth, which contradicts the reported declines. If it runs through September, exceeding 2.5M needs about 706k TEU in Q4 (about 235k a month). That is well above recent monthly levels of roughly 195–215k. If it runs only through August, the remaining four months need about 176k a month, which is easy. The cutoff month decides the outcome, so check it. https://scspa.com/wp-content/uploads/teu-history.pdf - [2026-09-27] Charleston container traffic fell year over year for 11 straight months through August 2026. July–August volume was about 224,000 boxes, down 8% and slightly below the port's projections. The article reports pier containers and fiscal-year figures, not TEUs. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/sc-ports-container-slump-approaching-090000083.html - [2026-09-27] The CEO said "the signals are really mixed right now." The same article says the late holiday import rush is unlikely to move the needle at Charleston, because most of it is going to the West Coast. The port also indefinitely halted operations at Leatherman Terminal on Aug 1. The CEO's State of the Port address is due Oct 27. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/sc-ports-container-slump-approaching-090000083.html - [2026-08-19] Fiscal 2026 (July 2025 to June 2026) cargo containers fell 4.6% from the prior year. The port attributed this to tariffs, the Iran war and economic concerns, plus lost market share to consumer-goods-heavy Southeast peers. https://scdailygazette.com/2026/08/19/less-cargo-has-sc-ports-authority-cutting-its-way-toward-growth/ - [2026-03-17] February 2026 volume was the lowest since July 2020, and the fiscal year to date was down 3%. https://www.postandcourier.com/business/sc-state-ports-charleston-shipping-slowdown/article_90b8b3d0-4254-4445-9cfe-34aef517de87.html - [2026-01-20] Fiscal first-half containers were roughly flat: 689,350 against 692,770. The CEO said the port was "preparing to see weaker volumes continue into 2026." https://scdailygazette.com/2026/01/20/after-flat-first-half-sc-ports-sees-better-days-ahead/ - [2026-01-20] Reference class: SC Ports said it closed 2025 with "more than 2.6 million" TEUs. That conflicts with 2,565,297 in the PDF, so this is a discrepancy. FY2025 (July 2024 to June 2025) was 2.6M, up 3%. Using my parse of the PDF, calendar years 2021–2025 were all above 2.4M, and four of the five were above 2.5M (2023 was 2.48M and 2024 was 2.50M). https://www.railwayage.com/intermodal/intermodal-briefs-polb-sc-ports-2/ - [2025-10-16] September 2025 was 212,363 TEUs, against 214,558 in September 2024. Late-2025 monthly TEUs ran around 195–213k. https://scspa.com/news/sc-ports-records-strong-intermodal-and-automotive-growth-as-state-attracts-new-investments/ - [2026-10-14] National backdrop: US container imports in September 2026 were 10.3% higher than a year earlier, and January–September was up 0.8%. West Coast ports gained share while Charleston lagged. https://www.ajot.com/news/descartes-global-shipping-report-u.s-container-imports-reach-highest-september-volume-on-record - [2026-09] The Pacific Merchant Shipping Association reported Charleston laden inbound TEUs in August 2026 at 100,502, down 9.2% year over year. Outbound laden TEUs were 51,125, down 2.7%. https://www.pmsaship.com/maritime-insights-blog/august-2026-container-traffic-at-north-american-ports - [2026-09] A Kalshi-linked Coinbase listing of the same event shows a sibling strike at above 2.4 million TEUs, so the market ladder includes 2.4M and 2.5M. No price was read. https://www.coinbase.com/predictions/event/KXSCPORTTEU-27JAN31 BOTTOM LINE: The historical base rate for calendar-year totals above 2.5M is high (about 4 of the last 5 years), but 2026 is a clear down year. The latest 11-month decline streak points to a total near 2.35–2.45M if the 1.794M year-to-date figure runs through September. That would make 2.5M unlikely. The result depends on the year-to-date cutoff month, which I could not confirm. NOT FOUND: the month the 2026 year-to-date PDF covers; the monthly 2026 TEU figures; any external forecast of Charleston's calendar-2026 TEUs; the September 2026 SC Ports release (due around Oct 20).

YES means: the "2026 Total TEUs" figure in SC Ports' TEU History with Totals (calendar year to date) PDF is above 2,500,000 once December 2026 data is posted. The deadline is the market close on 2027-01-31. I could only build a thin case for YES. The most likely path needs a Q4 surge that has no visible precedent at Charleston this year. - [2026-10-15] I read the PDF directly and the month labels are now confirmed. In the September column, 2024 = 214,558, 2025 = 212,363 and 2026 = 201,773. So the 1,794,157 year-to-date total does run through September. This removes the "cutoff month" ambiguity that the earlier reports flagged as possible upside. Q4 needs more than 705,843 TEUs, about 235k a month. Source: https://scspa.com/wp-content/uploads/teu-history.pdf - [2026-10-15] The best-case path needs Q4 2026 at roughly 3.7 times the 2025 monthly run rate of about 200k. It is not impossible in historical terms. The same PDF shows Q4 2022 months of about 216–234k, and Q4 2024 (Oct 209,107, Nov 211,443, Dec 198,018) was higher than Q4 2023. A 235k-per-month average has not been seen in recent years outside March 2025 (240,857). Source: https://scspa.com/wp-content/uploads/teu-history.pdf - [2026-10-13] National import demand is strong. Descartes reports US imports of 2,546,261 TEUs in September 2026, a record September and up 10.3% year over year. China-origin imports were up 21.2%. A broad, tariff-driven or restocking rebound is the only mechanism that could lift Charleston. Source: https://www.ajot.com/news/descartes-global-shipping-report-u.s-container-imports-reach-highest-september-volume-on-record - [2026-10-13] Descartes says port transit delays rose at eight of the top 10 gateways. The Panama Canal is partly restoring transit slots from Oct 15. That could pull East and Gulf Coast routings back, a prerequisite for any Charleston rebound. Source: https://www.ajot.com/news/descartes-global-shipping-report-u.s-container-imports-reach-highest-september-volume-on-record - [2026-10-13] Against this, Descartes shows Charleston imports down 10.3% month over month in September (10,614 TEUs). West Coast ports gained share while Savannah, Norfolk, Houston and New York/New Jersey also fell. National strength is not reaching Charleston. Source: https://www.ajot.com/news/descartes-global-shipping-report-u.s-container-imports-reach-highest-september-volume-on-record - [2026-10-15] Charleston's Q4 comparison base is soft. The Oct 2025 figure was 206,859 TEUs, per the Nov 18, 2025 SC Ports release, and Dec 2025 was 194,610. A recovery to even about 215k a month would give about 2.44M, still short. Sources: https://scspa.com/news/sc-ports-sees-slight-dip-in-imports-as-economic-development-in-state-remains-strong/ and https://scspa.com/wp-content/uploads/teu-history.pdf - [2026-08-19] Management expects no near-term rebound. CEO Mallace told the board in August that volumes were "highly unlikely" to meet budget. Charleston has lost market share to peers with a bigger consumer-goods base, and the port itself calls its rates "out of whack". Source: https://scdailygazette.com/2026/08/19/less-cargo-has-sc-ports-authority-cutting-its-way-toward-growth/ - [2026-04-01] Mallace said it would take about two years to regain above-market volumes. This points to a slow recovery, not a Q4 spike. Source: https://scdailygazette.com/2026/04/01/sc-ports-looks-to-lower-union-labor-costs-attract-new-distribution-centers/ - [2026-10-15] Resolution-wording quirk. SC Ports said it closed 2025 with "more than 2.6 million" TEUs (Railway Age, Jan 2026), while the PDF's 2025 total is 2,565,297. Fiscal 2025 was 2,566,764. If SC Ports ever revised the 2026 calendar total in a way that mixed in other measures, the figure could shift. I found no evidence of this. Sources: https://www.railwayage.com/intermodal/intermodal-briefs-polb-sc-ports-2/ and https://www.charlestonbusinessmagazine.com/stories/sc-ports-an-economic-gem,46484 BOTTOM LINE: The only route to YES is an unprecedented Q4 of 706k or more TEUs, about 235k a month against about 200k a month all year. That would need a national import boom to reach Charleston, and the latest data shows it going to the West Coast instead. Nothing I found supports it. NOT FOUND: SC Ports' September 2026 release (due around Oct 20). Any October 2026 Charleston volume or vessel-schedule evidence of a Q4 surge. Any external Q4 forecast for Charleston. Any indication that the 2026 resolution total will be defined differently from the PDF's monthly sum.

YES means: SC Ports' official 2026 calendar-year Total TEUs (TEU History with Totals PDF) is above 2,500,000. - [2026-10-15] I re-parsed the PDF's month columns. The block holding 212,363 (Sept 2025) and 214,558 (Sept 2024) ends in 201,773, so 201,773 is Sept 2026. The Oct–Dec columns hold no 2026 values, which confirms the 1,794,157 year-to-date figure ends in September. My reading of the earlier columns (the garbled layout leaves some uncertainty) gives Jan–Sep 2025 of about 1,965,887. Subtracting that from the 2025 total of 2,565,297 leaves Q4 2025 at about 599k. 2026 year to date is therefore about 8.7% below the same period of 2025. http://scspa.com/wp-content/uploads/teu-history.pdf - [2026-10-15] Deadline arithmetic: Q4 2026 must exceed 705,843 TEUs. That is about 17.8% above Q4 2025's roughly 599k, in a year running about 9% below 2025. Repeating Q4 2025 exactly would give a total of about 2.39M. Applying the year-to-date rate of decline (about -8.7%) to Q4 gives roughly 2.34M. Neither reaches 2.5M. http://scspa.com/wp-content/uploads/teu-history.pdf - [2026-10-15] On my parse, the 2026 monthly figures are 199,694 for June, 202,699 for July, 203,786 for August and 201,773 for September. All are flat at about 200k. September 2026 is about 5% below September 2025. A 705,843 Q4 requires about 235k a month, which exceeds every month in 2026 (peak 218,673 in March). A jump of about 17% over the roughly 201k September run-rate would be needed. http://scspa.com/wp-content/uploads/teu-history.pdf - [2026-10-13] Descartes says US imports hit a record 2.55M TEUs in September, up 10.3% year over year. The gain was on the West Coast, and Charleston's imports fell 10.3% month over month. Gulf and East Coast gateways lost share. Strong national volume is not reaching Charleston. https://www.ajot.com/news/descartes-global-shipping-report-u.s-container-imports-reach-highest-september-volume-on-record - [2026-10-08] The NRF Global Port Tracker forecasts October at 2.25M TEUs nationally, down from the August peak. It has November roughly flat year over year (-1%) and December about +0.6%. The extended peak season is "wrapping up", so no national Q4 surge is forecast that could lift Charleston by 17%. https://www.logisticsmgmt.com/article/extended_peak_season_pushes_2026_port_volume_higher_but_slowdown_looms_reports_port_tracker - [2026-06-25] SC Ports said fiscal-year-to-date volume (11 months) was about 2.24M TEUs, down 5%. It also cut costs by idling Leatherman from Aug 1, with no reopening date. The authority is managing for lower volume, not planning for a surge. Container lines were already avoiding Leatherman, and Wando Welch and North Charleston are described as having enough capacity. https://en.portnews.ru/news/393376/ - [2026-06-25] The authority reported fiscal-year volume nearly 5% below its own projections. Even SC Ports' internal plan was missed, so there is no evidence of an unmodelled upside. https://www.postandcourier.com/business/sc-ports-charleston-leatherman-terminal/article_3307fc75-32d8-4523-83c2-d8b799e35491.html - [2026-10-15] Resolution technicality: the question uses the PDF's 2026 Total, which is currently the YTD figure. Nothing in the criteria lets a different series count (fiscal year, pier containers, or SC Ports' "more than 2.6 million" claim for 2025). The PDF's 2025 total (2,565,297) conflicts with that press claim, so the PDF governs. For 2026, no alternative source gives a higher number. http://scspa.com/wp-content/uploads/teu-history.pdf - [2026-10-15] Status-quo inertia: Charleston has been in year-over-year decline since Sept 2025, and 2026 monthly figures have been in a narrow 178k–219k band. The only way to a Yes is a regime break in Q4 (for example, a diversion from other ports or an Asia surge). The Panama Canal restrictions and Suez or Hormuz disruptions that might divert cargo are described by Descartes as risks, not as shifts toward Charleston. https://www.ajot.com/news/descartes-global-shipping-report-u.s-container-imports-reach-highest-september-volume-on-record BOTTOM LINE: Through September, 2026 totals about 1.794M, about 9% below 2025. A Yes needs Q4 to be about 18% above Q4 2025. Even a flat Q4 gives only about 2.39M, so the No case rests on arithmetic that has no visible catalyst to overcome it. NOT FOUND: SC Ports' September 2026 press release, any October 2026 TEU data, any forecast of Charleston's calendar-2026 TEUs, or any report of a Q4 diversion toward Charleston.