Will Pennsylvania’s marketed natural-gas production for 2026 be above 7.675792 trillion cubic feet?

**Key numbers** - The threshold of 7,675,792 MMcf equals EIA's current published 2025 annual value for Pennsylvania. So the question is effectively whether 2026 comes in above 2025. - Pennsylvania 2026 is running flat to 2025 through July: 4,488,743 vs 4,493,300 MMcf, a gap of −4,557 (about −0.1%). - For 2026 to exceed the threshold, Aug–Dec 2026 would need roughly 3.187 Tcf. The 2025 Aug–Dec total, derived as the 2025 annual figure minus the 2025 7-month YTD, was about 3.182 Tcf. That is about +0.14% year over year. **Items** - [2026-09-30] EIA annual series shows Pennsylvania marketed production: 2021 7,647,068; 2022 7,513,567; 2023 7,565,634; 2024 7,422,303; 2025 7,675,792 MMcf. No 2026 value exists yet. The next release shown is 10/30/2026. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9050pa2a.htm - [2026-09-21] Natural Gas Monthly (September issue), Table 7: the 2026 7-month YTD for Pennsylvania is E4,488,743 MMcf, against 4,493,300 for 2025 and 4,332,478 for 2024. All 2025 and 2026 state monthly figures are EIA estimates. I could not see the individual 2026 Pennsylvania monthly rows because the fetch output was truncated. https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/monthly/pdf/table_07.pdf - [2026-08-20] Method note: from 2025 forward, EIA estimates state monthly marketed production from gross withdrawals using historical relationships. Pennsylvania is collected on Form EIA-914. The 2026 figures are therefore model-derived and revisable. The next Natural Gas Monthly, with data through August, is due around Oct 30. https://eia.gov/naturalgas/monthly/pdf/table_07.pdf - [2026-10-01] October STEO (modeling completed Oct 1) has Appalachia marketed gas at 36.6 Bcf/d in 2025 and 37.1 Bcf/d in 2026, about +1.4%. Quarterly 2026: Q1 36.9, Q2 37.2, Q3 37.2, Q4 37.1. 2027 is 37.6. This is a regional figure covering PA, WV, OH and others, not Pennsylvania alone. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/tables/pdf/5atab.pdf - [2026-09] September STEO text says Appalachian production "remains near record highs", but growth has been slower this year than in other regions. Permian and Haynesville account for most of the growth. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_text.pdf - [2026-10-05] NGI reports weak Appalachian cash prices. Regional prices fell from about $1.60/MMBtu in early September to about $1.00 by early October. An Appalachian pipeline constraint was removed, but output stayed low and curtailments are signaled. A separate NGI item from the same day says a pipeline outage trapped supply and held the Marcellus benchmark below $1.00. This is a downside risk to Q4 Pennsylvania volumes. https://naturalgasintel.com/news/appalachian-natural-gas-output-lags-as-1-cash-prices-signal-curtailments/ - [2026-09-24] NGI says Appalachian forward hubs are sinking, with a roughly $2 gap to Southeast markets. https://naturalgasintel.com/news/appalachian-natural-gas-forward-curve-responds-to-eqt-cuts/ - [2026-09-19] Cove Point LNG maintenance (Sept 19–Oct 2) was expected to cut Appalachian demand by about 850 MMcf/d for up to three weeks. Eastern storage was 6% above its five-year average. https://naturalgasintel.com/news/cove-point-lng-outage-to-cut-appalachian-natural-gas-demand/ - [2026-09-02] The Pennsylvania IFO's 2026 Q2 Natural Gas Production Report is out, using DEP data. I could not read its contents. The 2025 DEP unconventional total was 7,772,431,190 Mcf, a record. https://www.ifo.state.pa.us/releases/type/2/Natural-Gas/ and https://fractracker.org/2026/07/pennsylvania-oil-gas-production-2025/ - [2026-09-15] MarcellusGas.org shows DEP unconventional production data through July 2026 (DEP data date Sept 15). The totals are member-only, so I could not see them. https://marcellusgas.org/graphs/PA - [2026-10-15] The market context is Henry Hub at about $2.93 average for June–August (AGA/EIA), with record U.S. output and storage near 4 Tcf. The October STEO has 2026 U.S. marketed gas at 123.5 Bcf/d. https://www.aga.org/research-policy/resource-library/natural-gas-market-indicators-october-1-2026/ - [Timing] The 2026 annual Pennsylvania figure will appear in EIA's Natural Gas Monthly and the annual series. Provisional data for the full year should appear around late Feb 2027, and the last 2025 annual release was 2/27/2026. The trading close is 2027-02-26, so the figure may come out right at or after close. The 2025 value was already revised from 7,669,870 (2/27/2026 release) to 7,675,792 (8/31/2026 release). The threshold is fixed at the latter. BOTTOM LINE: Pennsylvania 2026 is tracking almost exactly at the 2025 level (−0.1% through July on EIA estimates), so the outcome hinges on small Aug–Dec differences. Weak Appalachian prices and curtailments in early Oct lean slightly negative, while the STEO's regional growth and the Q4 ramp lean positive. The figure also depends on EIA's estimation method and later revisions. NOT FOUND: Pennsylvania's individual 2026 monthly EIA values (the table was truncated). DEP monthly 2026 totals (paywalled). The IFO Q2 2026 report contents. An EIA Pennsylvania-specific 2026 forecast. A Pennsylvania-specific EIA figure for August or later.

**Key framing:** The threshold of 7,675,792 MMcf equals EIA's current 2025 value for Pennsylvania. The question is therefore whether 2026 marketed production exceeds 2025. My arithmetic from the EIA monthly series follows. - [2026-09-30] EIA lists Pennsylvania annual marketed production (MMcf) as 7,168,902 (2020), 7,647,068 (2021), 7,513,567 (2022), 7,565,634 (2023), 7,422,303 (2024) and 7,675,792 (2025). Year-on-year changes in 2021–2025 were +6.7%, -1.7%, +0.7%, -1.9% and +3.4%, so 3 of the last 5 years were up. Production rose every year from 2010 to 2021, then plateaued. An earlier cached EIA page showed 2025 as 7,669,870, so the 2025 figure has been revised and could change again. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9050pa2a.htm - [2026-09-30] EIA's monthly series (MMcf) for 2026 runs through July: Jan 660,820; Feb 599,029; Mar 658,889; Apr 630,456; May 658,571; Jun 633,876; Jul 647,102. These sum to 4,488,743. The same months of 2025 sum to 4,493,300, so 2026 year-to-date is about 4,557 MMcf (-0.1%) behind. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9050pa2m.htm - [2026-09-30] Aug–Dec 2025 was about 3,182,492 MMcf, which is 7,675,792 minus the Jan–Jul 2025 sum. 2026 needs Aug–Dec above roughly 3,187,050 MMcf, about +0.14% year on year, to clear the threshold. Monthly values for Aug–Dec 2025 were 646,896; 615,177; 616,283; 632,897; 671,238. The next EIA release is 2026-10-30. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9050pa2m.htm - [2026-09-02] The Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) reports Q2 2026 production of 1,925 Bcf, down 1.6% from Q2 2025. This is the lowest quarterly volume since Q4 2024. Horizontal wells spud fell 15.2% to 89. The average Pennsylvania hub price was $2.11, down 11.3%. https://marcellusdrilling.com/2026/09/pa-natgas-2q26-production-slips-drilling-down-15-price-down-11/ - [2026-09-02] The IFO expects the Pennsylvania spot price to fall further in Q3 2026, to about $2.02, which is 7.2% lower year on year. It also estimates 102 new wells spud in Q3 2026, down 11.8%. Both point to weak supply response in H2. https://pennbizreport.com/news/33482-pennsylvania-natural-gas-production-falls-to-lowest-quarterly-level-since-late-2024/ and http://paenvironmentdaily.blogspot.com/2026/09/independent-fiscal-office-reports-2nd-quarter-pa-natural-gas-production-declines.html - [2026-06-04] The IFO reported Q1 2026 production of 1,928 Bcf, down 0.8% year on year. That was the first quarterly decline in two years. https://www.rocket-courier.com/articles/natural-gas-production-drops-to-begin-year/ - [2026-02/03] 2025 production grew 5.1% on the IFO's DEP-based measure, the strongest in four years, driven by 446 new horizontal wells (+44%) and a 71% higher spot price. That is a high base for 2026. https://www.naturalgasintel.com/news/pennsylvania-natural-gas-production-grows-at-strongest-rate-in-years/ - [2026-05-08] EIA's short-term forecast, as cited by the Ohio River Valley Institute, has Appalachian production up 0.4 Bcf/d in 2026 (about +1%) and 0.7 Bcf/d in 2027. This is a regional figure, not Pennsylvania-specific, and it predates the weak Q2 data. Appalachian output was about 36.2 Bcf/d in late May, in line with the prior year. https://ohiorivervalleyinstitute.org/appalachian-gas-near-term-and-long-term-trends/ and https://aegis-hedging.com/insights/dominion-south-basis-forces-affecting-price-aegis-reference - [2026-07] The FracTracker Alliance, using Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) data, reports 7.84 Tcf for 2025. It notes that EIA's Pennsylvania numbers run slightly below DEP's, partly because of late reporters. https://fractracker.org/2026/07/pennsylvania-oil-gas-production-2025/ - [2026-09] EIA's gross withdrawals table shows Pennsylvania at 7,676 Bcf in 2025, 16.1% of the U.S. total. https://marcellusdrilling.com/2026/09/appalachia-nearly-matches-texas-28-of-us-gas-from-pa-wv-oh/ - [2026-10-15] Resolution timing: EIA's monthly series released 2026-09-30 reached July 2026, a lag of about two months. A 2026 value would therefore first be derivable around the late-February 2027 release (December data), close to the 2027-02-26 trading close. The formal Natural Gas Annual comes later. EIA's 2025 value may also be revised before then, but the threshold is fixed. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9050pa2m.htm BOTTOM LINE: The reference class is a near coin-flip, with year-over-year changes in the last five years about evenly split between up and down. 2026 is essentially tied with 2025 (-0.1% through July). The IFO data show falling quarterly output, fewer wells spud and lower prices, which lean slightly toward "No". The exact EIA numbers are noisy and subject to revision, so the outcome stays close to a toss-up. NOT FOUND: An EIA STEO state-level Pennsylvania 2026 forecast. Any independent expert estimate of Pennsylvania's full-year 2026 EIA figure. Q3 2026 DEP or EIA monthly data (Aug onward). Other Kalshi strikes or sibling contracts (not searched, as instructed).

YES means: EIA's published Pennsylvania marketed natural-gas production for calendar year 2026 exceeds 7,675,792 MMcf, i.e. 2026 comes in above EIA's current 2025 figure. - [2026-07-21] EQT, the largest producer in Pennsylvania and the wider Appalachian basin, reported Q2 2026 sales of 634 Bcfe against 568 Bcfe in Q2 2025, about +12%. Sales beat the top of guidance on strong wells, compression gains and smaller price-related curtailments. It raised full-year 2026 production guidance by about 90 Bcfe. That is a company-level, multi-state figure (PA, WV, OH). The IFO's DEP-based Q2 total for all Pennsylvania producers still fell 1.6% (earlier report). So EQT gains are being offset by other operators, mainly Expand, Range and Coterra. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000033213/000003321326000041/ex9916302026earningsrelease.htm - [2026-07-21] The same EQT release says it will turn in line 34–50 net wells in Q3 2026. It credits the production outperformance to compression investments that flatten decline rates. This supports an H2 ramp from a base that is already near 2025 levels. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000033213/000003321326000041/ex9916302026earningsrelease.htm - [2026-10-02] AEGIS weekly pipeline-flow data put Appalachian production at 35.52 Bcf/d in the week to about Sept 4–11, 0.50 Bcf/d (~1.4%) above the same window a year earlier. In the week to Sept 18 it was 35.82 Bcf/d, 0.77 Bcf/d (~2%) above the prior year. The Pennsylvania-heavy Marcellus rig count is 23. This is higher year-on-year than the Aug–Dec +0.14% needed for the threshold, though it is regional and flow-based. https://aegis-hedging.com/insights/dominion-south-basis-forces-affecting-price-aegis-reference - [2026-10-02] The late-September dip in Appalachian production (to 34.04 Bcf/d) came from the Mountaineer XPress force majeure and the Stonewall gathering outage. Those problems sit mainly in West Virginia, with the AEGIS flow note saying West Virginia volumes behind the constraint shut in. The constraint came back into service Sept 29, with 1.9 Bcf/d scheduled again. The Stonewall force majeure was still capping about 0.5 Bcf/d. Only about two weeks of September were disrupted, a small share of a roughly 3.19 Tcf Aug–Dec target. The Cove Point outage was expected to end Oct 10. https://aegis-hedging.com/insights/dominion-south-basis-forces-affecting-price-aegis-reference - [2026-10-02] Winter '26/'27 TETCO M2 basis is at about -$0.49 and sits in the 96th percentile of its history. That means regional price spreads are historically tight for winter, which cuts the incentive for Q4 curtailments. Transco SESE partial service (Q1 2027) and MVP flows are 2027 factors, not 2026 ones. https://aegis-hedging.com/insights/dominion-south-basis-forces-affecting-price-aegis-reference - [2026-10-08] The October STEO raised its 2026 U.S. marketed gas forecast by 0.46% to 123.528 Bcf/d. Together with the earlier Appalachia +1.4% year-on-year path, this keeps EIA's own model, the same one that generates the state monthly estimates, pointing up. https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/10/08/short-term-energy-outlook-october-2026 - [2026-09-30] The 2025 base has a soft comparison in Q4. The EIA 2025 monthly values already cited show Oct–Nov 2025 at about 615–616 Bcf per month, below the 2026 Jan–Jul run-rate of 630–660. A 2026 Q4 near the 2026 YTD monthly average (about 641 per month) would exceed 2025 Oct–Nov, and an average of about 637.4 MMcf per month for Aug–Dec 2026 is enough. This is arithmetic from the colleague data. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9050pa2m.htm - [2026-10-02] Appalachian storage and demand: East storage was 840 Bcf on Sept 25, with the five-year surplus shrinking for three weeks to 23 Bcf. A narrowing surplus eases the pressure for shut-ins. https://aegis-hedging.com/insights/dominion-south-basis-forces-affecting-price-aegis-reference Most likely path to YES: EIA's estimates for Aug–Dec 2026 come in about 0.15% or more above Aug–Dec 2025. That needs EQT's compression-driven volumes and the Q3 turn-in-lines to hold, the late-September outages to clear, and no heavy price-driven curtailment in Q4. A later upward revision to the Jan–Jul 2026 figures would also help. Revisions to 2026 are not constrained, whereas the 2025 value in the threshold is fixed. BOTTOM LINE: Year to date is only −0.1%, so a small H2 gain decides it. EQT's 12% Q2 gain and guidance raise, weekly Appalachian flows running 1–2% above last year in September, and a soft Oct–Nov 2025 comparison are the strongest evidence for YES. The IFO's decline in Q2 output, fewer spuds and weak Appalachian cash prices are the offsetting evidence. NOT FOUND: Pennsylvania-specific EIA monthly values for Aug 2026 onward. DEP monthly production totals for 2026 (behind a paywall). A Pennsylvania-only 2026 forecast from EIA. EQT's Q3 2026 results, which are not yet out. Any EQT Q4 curtailment guidance.

YES means: EIA reports Pennsylvania's calendar-2026 marketed natural-gas production above 7,675,792 MMcf, which equals EIA's current 2025 value. - [2026-10-07] Marcellus Drilling News read EIA's state data through July (released Sept 30). It says Appalachian output fell in July even as U.S. gross withdrawals hit a record 137 Bcf/d, with the gains in Texas and New Mexico. This points to momentum fading going into Aug–Dec, when 2026 needs about +0.14% year on year. The state breakdown is paywalled. https://marcellusdrilling.com/2026/10/us-gas-production-hits-record-in-july-but-not-thanks-to-appalachia/ - [2026-10-07] Reuters/LSEG data via a newsletter show U.S. output falling from a record 113.3 Bcf/d to 111.5 in early October. It cites pipeline force majeures in West Virginia, Kentucky and Texas. This adds to the Oct 5 curtailment signals and weighs on Q4, but the force majeures are outside Pennsylvania. https://americascoal.substack.com/p/the-baseload-us-gas-output-slips - [2026-08-20] NGI said Appalachian producers were increasingly likely to curtail again this fall as regional storage built and forwards slid. Curtailments were flagged before October, so they could also hit Aug–Sep. https://naturalgasintel.com/news/eqt-expands-clarington-connector-targets-tightening-ohio-natural-gas-supply/ - [2025 Q4 precedent] In fall 2025 EQT said it was "effectively fully curtailed" when Tetco M-2 fell below $1.50. Wood Mackenzie had eastern output bottoming near 34.0 Bcf/d in October, down from about 37.0 in May–June. A sub-$1 benchmark in October 2026 is lower than that trigger. The comparison base, Oct 2025 at 615,177 and Nov 2025 at 616,283, was already a curtailment trough, which helps YES. But Dec 2025 was 671,238, a high bar for Dec 2026 to beat. https://www.naturalgasintel.com/news/appalachian-producers-reverse-shut-ins-as-winters-approach-lifts-natural-gas-prices/ - [2026-07-21] EQT's Q2 2026 release says it raised guidance by about 90 Bcfe. It cited "lower-than-expected price related curtailments" in Q2. That favours YES. But EQT's output is only part of Pennsylvania's, and the IFO still showed Q2 down 1.6%. The guidance raise also predates the October price collapse to about $1. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000033213/000003321326000041/ex9916302026earningsrelease.htm - [2026-10-06] EIA's data page lists the Natural Gas Annual full report as due in November 2026, and monthly state data released Sept 30 with the next on Oct 30. The 2025 value shows as revised on 8/31/2026. The 2025 figure has already moved once, by +5,922 MMcf (+0.08%). Further upward revision of 2025 would make the 2026 YTD gap worse relative to a moving base, but the threshold is fixed. A 2026 revision could go either way. https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/data.php - [2026-10-15] Deadline arithmetic: the 2026 annual figure needs December data, which EIA's usual lag puts at the Feb 27, 2026-style release, i.e. about Feb 26–27, 2027. If it appears after the Feb 26 close, the outcome is unknown at close. The rules state no separate deadline, so the market could resolve late or on a later release. This is a timing risk, not a directional one. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9050pa2A.htm - [2026-09] The Pennsylvania figure is an EIA estimate derived from gross withdrawals using historical relationships, not a survey tally. Seasonal and revision noise of about ±0.1% can decide a gap this small, so a flat-to-slightly-negative path is the status quo. Nothing has to change for NO: a −4,557 MMcf YTD deficit persists unless Aug–Dec outgrows 2025. https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/monthly/pdf/ngm_all.pdf - [2026-10-04] A secondary source puts the Appalachian aggregate at about 37.5 Bcf/d in October 2026. It does not support a Pennsylvania-specific rise, and it is a low-quality aggregator. I treat it as unreliable. https://discoveryalert.com/education/marcellus-shale-lowest-cost-natural-gas-basin/ BOTTOM LINE: The NO case rests on inertia. 2026 is already slightly behind 2025 through July, July Appalachian output fell, and curtailments and fewer wells spud point to a weak Aug–Dec against a high Dec 2025 base of 671,238 MMcf. Any tie or tiny shortfall resolves NO, and a late EIA release adds timing risk. NOT FOUND: Pennsylvania-specific EIA figures for Aug 2026 onward. The Pennsylvania figure behind the paywalled MDN July story. An EIA release date for December 2026 data. Q3 2026 EQT, Expand or CNX Pennsylvania volumes.