Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that a Summary of Economic Projections omits individual participants’ federal-funds-rate projections before Jan 1, 2027? — Dot Plot Omitted

- [2026-09-16] The Fed's official September 2026 SEP was published with individual participants' federal-funds-rate projections (figure 1 dots). Chair Warsh did not submit a dot, so 18 participants did. A missing single participant does not count under the 9/28 clarification. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260916.htm - [2026-09-16] Warsh declined to submit a dot for the second consecutive SEP. In June he said individual rate projections weren't helpful to the "current policy conjuncture". Median dots were 4.1% for end-2026 and end-2027. https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/portfolio-insights/fixed-income/fixed-income-perspectives/fomc-statement-september-2026/ - [2026-06-17] The June SEP was also published with dots (18 participants). Reports said Warsh was expected to scrap the dots as early as June, but he did not. He announced five task forces on communications and operations. https://finance.biggo.com/news/686e7c59-6e76-4a78-b562-eb346599f0a9 - [2026-09-16] Briefs reported that a year-end review of Fed communications, including the dots, is under way. Warsh said so at his June 17 press conference. A communications panel is weighing whether the dot plot should stay. No decision has been reported. https://www.briefs.co/news/warsh-leaves-his-dot-blank-again-putting-the-fed-s-favorite/ - [2026-10-15] Today's calendar: the next FOMC meeting is Oct 27–28 with no SEP. The next SEP is due Dec 9, 2026 at 2:00 pm ET (meeting Dec 8–9), the only SEP release left before the Jan 1, 2027 close. https://arongroups.co/forex-articles/fred-dot-plot/ (one source reports the Dec 9 date and no SEP in October; the FRED page also lists a next release of Dec 9) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDTARMDLR - [2026-10-13] The October FOMC minutes are due Nov 18. Markets are debating a pause versus another hike. The September payrolls report showed +29k and unemployment at 4.2%. https://recouprev.com/article/october-fomc-meeting-key-dates-and-policy-signals - [2026-10-13] Claudia Sahm criticised Warsh-era communications. She said the statement has been cut by more than half and the committee's reasoning now arrives only with the minutes, three weeks later. https://stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/hand-the-pen-to-the-committee - [2026-10-15] In a podcast, Yellen said she knows Warsh dislikes the SEP and that Warsh has asked for a review and options. She thinks members did not agree to communication changes and "people are probably split". https://kathleenhays.substack.com/p/yellen-one-more-rate-hike-needed - [2026-02/03, undated item ~133 days old] Yahoo/Motley Fool-style coverage said Warsh was "about to make a major change". Critics such as Bullard said ditching the dots would breach an international standard. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/kevin-warsh-major-change-fed-182650715.html BOTTOM LINE: As of Oct 15, no SEP has omitted all participants' rate projections. March, June and September SEPs all carried dots, and Warsh only withholds his own. The only SEP before the close is Dec 9, and the outcome hinges on whether the pending communications review leads to dropping or changing the dots by then. I found no report that this has been decided. NOT FOUND: Any official Fed announcement or credible report (as of Oct 8–15) that the December SEP will drop the dots. The communications review's timeline and results. Any primary Fed statement on the review beyond Warsh's June remarks. I also couldn't confirm the contract's "Source Agencies" list.

- [2026-09-16] The September SEP (the third of 2026) was published with individual rate projections. JPMorgan AM says Chair Warsh did not submit a dot plot or any economic projections for the second consecutive SEP. Eighteen other participants submitted dots. That is the same as the "one participant absent" case, which the 9/28 clarification says does not count. https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/portfolio-insights/fixed-income/fixed-income-perspectives/fomc-statement-september-2026/ - [2026-06-17] Reference-class base rate: the Fed has published individual rate projections in every SEP since January 2012. The rate projections were added to the SEP on 25 January 2012. The SEP itself dates from 2007. I found no SEP that dropped the individual rate projections as a whole, so the historical YES count is 0 out of roughly 60 SEPs. The June, September and March 2026 releases all included dots. https://arongroups.co/forex-articles/fed-dot-plot/ - [2026-06-17] Warsh said he would favour a review. Yahoo Finance quotes him saying "There will be a review about communications broadly, press conferences, dots, meetings, and the like". The snippet also carries a partial quote, "I think this might be the last time we see the dot plot". I could not confirm who said it or in what context. The page itself came back as a shell when fetched. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/article/fed-dot-plot-almost-half-of-fomc-members-project-at-least-one-interest-rate-hike-this-year-183645064.html - [2026-06-17] CNBC reports that Warsh announced five task forces, including one on communications. He also said it has been the committee's practice for participants to submit projections, and that he encouraged colleagues to continue. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/17/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html - [2026-06-17] A transcript summary says the chair called the dot plot "not a binding pledge", said many submissions were made "with pencils", and said communications practices, including dots, go to the task force. https://citizenportal.ai/articles/8208139/Federal/Executive/Independent-Establishments-and-Government-Corporations/Federal-Reserve-System/Fed-drops-forward-guidance-will-review-dot-plot-and-data-sources-as-part-of-communications-overhaul - [2026-07-13] Deutsche Bank Research (podcast recorded July 9) says the communications task force is reportedly led by Mervyn King and expected to deliver proposals by year-end. Former Fed official Bill English is quoted as confident that a report by December is feasible. A report is not the same as a committee decision, and the DB page lists "Revising the SEP: shifting to rolling windows" as one idea under discussion. https://equityview.research.db.com/PROD/IE-PROD/PROD0000000000633153/Macro_MATTers:_A_conversation_with_Bill_English_on.xhtml - [2026-10-15] Timing: the only remaining SEP in the window is the Dec 8–9 meeting. The next SEP is due 9 December 2026 at 2:00 pm Eastern, and the October meeting has no projections. Only one release can resolve YES, and any change would have to be agreed by the FOMC before then. https://arongroups.co/forex-articles/fed-dot-plot/ - [2026-06] EFG International notes that major changes to communication strategy cannot simply be imposed by the Chair; they must command the confidence of the FOMC and the institution more broadly. https://www.efginternational.com/insights/2026/The-Fed-under-Warsh--Understanding-the-task-forces.html - [2024] Prior survey evidence: in Brookings' 2024 survey of Fed watchers, 55% said the Fed should keep the dot plot and 27% said it should kill it. That suggests a minority view favouring abolition. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/grading-fed-communications-a-2024-survey-of-fed-watchers - [2026-09] Institutional continuity: after the September meeting, outlets such as Schwab and Yahoo/Deutsche Bank were still analysing the dots and trying to identify individual officials. Nothing found shows a decision to drop the dots at December. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-september-2026-dot-plot-144727873.html - Other markets and polls: I found no external prediction-market or expert-poll estimate for a December dot-plot omission. I did not search for this contract's own price, as instructed. BOTTOM LINE: The historical base rate for omitting the dots altogether is 0 out of about 60 SEPs. Warsh has made a change more plausible than usual: he is hostile to the dots, has opened a communications review, and the task force is due to report around year-end. The December 9 SEP is the only opportunity, and it would need the FOMC to agree to drop the dots at or before that meeting. Warsh's own abstention does not count under the clarification. NOT FOUND: Any official Fed announcement or credible report that the December 2026 SEP will omit the dots. Any published task-force findings or timeline from the Fed itself. Any external prediction-market or expert-poll odds on this outcome. A fetchable full text of the Yahoo article, which returned as a shell.

YES means: the Fed publishes a Summary of Economic Projections (in practice the Dec 9, 2026 SEP) that omits every participant's federal-funds-rate projection, and a Source Agency reports it. Warsh withholding only his own dot does not count. - [2026-06-17] Warsh said he "wouldn't be surprised" by a new communications framework by year-end. The same Reuters piece says the task force covers the dot plot. FXStreet's account adds that he flagged changes to the SEP itself by year-end. This makes the December SEP the natural deadline for any change. https://kfgo.com/2026/06/17/fed-chief-warsh-skips-rate-path-dot-launches-communications-review/ and https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-routed-as-warshs-fed-turns-the-dot-plot-upside-down-202606171915 - [2026-06 to 07] Warsh said "There will still be dots for a short time, at the very least, but we have a task force for that." This is a chair-level signal that the dots have a limited life. It is not a decision, and "short time" has no stated end date. https://www.briefs.co/news/ex-bank-of-england-chief-mervyn-king-to-lead-fed-s-communica/ - [2026-07-14] The communications task force is led by Mervyn King, Arminio Fraga and Peter Fisher. BNY's rates strategists call all three skeptics of the dots and forward guidance. They say the task force will "probably" jettison the dot plot. They also say some communication, such as fan charts, would survive in a different form. Their view is that the reports are not foregone conclusions. A fan chart or scenario format would still count as omitting the dots only if no individual participant projections are published. https://www.bny.com/corporate/global/en/solutions/platforms/execution-services/iflow/short-thoughts/fed-communications-task-force-back-to-the-old-world.html - [2026-07-13] A Deutsche Bank podcast has Bill English noting that the dots were introduced in 2011–12 after an informal straw poll of all 19 participants. His point is that buy-in was sought from everyone. This points to the main obstacle: a change needs FOMC consensus, which is separate from the Chair's view. The DB page also lists SEP revisions as an idea under discussion. https://equityview.research.db.com/PROD/IE-PROD/PROD0000000000633153/Macro_MATTers:_A_conversation_with_Bill_English_on.xhtml - [2026-07-14] Yahoo Finance's Fed reporter said changes to the dot plot are likely "probably by the end of this year", while also noting the committee must adopt any task-force findings. https://finance.yahoo.com/video/meet-leadership-feds-task-forces-203400176.html - [2026-09-16/17] The September SEP carried 18 dots, and Warsh again submitted no projections. Lord Abbett argues the dots now work as a measure of dispersion rather than guidance under Warsh. Chase reports a sharply hawkish cluster: 16 of 18 participants expect another hike in 2026. Hawkish officials may prefer to keep a visible dot signal. That cuts against the YES path. https://www.lordabbett.com/en-us/financial-advisor/insights/markets-and-economy/2026/september-fed-meeting-from-signals-to-action.html and https://www.chase.com/personal/investments/learning-and-insights/article/federal-reserve-raises-rates-officials-signal-one-more-hike-in-2026 - [2026-10-07] The Fed's official minutes of the September meeting were posted on Oct 7. A secondary recap says they show most participants expecting one more hike by year-end. I could not read the minutes' body, because the fetch returned the page menus with the middle omitted. I therefore cannot confirm whether they record any committee discussion of dropping the dots. Nothing I found reports one. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260916.htm and https://www.regardsofwallstreet.com/news/september-2026-fed-meeting-dates-hike-odds - [2026-10-14] The same recap lists the next decision as Oct 28 and says there is "no dot plot until December". That leaves the Oct 27–28 meeting (where the committee could discuss task-force findings) and the Dec 8–9 meeting as the only opportunities to decide. https://www.regardsofwallstreet.com/news/september-2026-fed-meeting-dates-hike-odds - Most likely YES path: 1. The King/Fraga/Fisher task force reports by about November, which Deutsche Bank's year-end estimate makes plausible. 2. Warsh persuades the FOMC, at the October meeting or by notation vote, to drop or replace the dot chart and rate table. 3. The Dec 9 SEP is published without individual rate projections, for example as scenarios, fan charts or an aggregate range. 4. Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC or the Fed itself reports the omission. - Prerequisites: the task force finishes before December, and a majority of the 19 participants agree to the change. The Fed would probably also announce the change, as it did in 2012, which would give an early signal. - Counterweights I found that bear on the path: Warsh asked colleagues in June to keep submitting, and Yellen thinks the committee is "probably split". Neither source indicates the committee has agreed to drop the dots. BOTTOM LINE: YES needs a fast, committee-endorsed abandonment of the dots at one meeting, the Dec 8–9 SEP. The strongest support is Warsh's hostility, a task force of dot-skeptics due to report around year-end, and his "dots for a short time" remark. The one-meeting window and the need for FOMC consensus are the main obstacles. NOT FOUND: Any official announcement or credible report that the December SEP will omit the dots. A published task-force timeline or findings. Any record of FOMC discussion of dropping the dots in the Sept 16 minutes, since I couldn't read their body. The contract's "Source Agencies" list.

YES means: the Dec 9, 2026 SEP (the only one left before the Jan 1, 2027 close) is published with no individual federal-funds-rate projections at all, and a Source Agency reports that. Warsh leaving his own dot blank does not count. - [2026-10-08] Governor Waller gave a speech titled "The Signaling Value of the Summary of Economic Projections." It defended the SEP and the dots and said that saying nothing about the rate path "could surprise markets and create volatility." Waller is a sitting governor and a finalist for chair, so this is a public pro-SEP position from within the Board one week ago. His proposed alternatives are a "signaling option" and rolling projections. Those modify the format but keep rate guidance. The 9/28 clarification says presentation format doesn't matter, so a reformatted dot plot would still resolve NO. https://www.scotsmanguide.com/news/waller-breaks-with-warsh-on-fed-forward-guidance-hints-at-october-rate-hold/ - [2026-10-01] J.P. Morgan chief US economist Feroli calls scrapping the dots "uncertain" and says dropping them without a replacement would cut transparency. He adds that any major shift needs backing from the full FOMC, so change could arrive slowly. The five task forces' findings are due "by year-end", which is not before the Dec 8–9 meeting. https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/5ac82-jp-morgan-fed-rate-hike-december - [2026-10-08] The same Waller speech gives a mechanism for NO. The dot plot is the Fed's only structured rate-path signal, and the committee is mid-hiking cycle (16 of 18 dots pointed to more hikes). Waller said hikes may not come at consecutive meetings and that pacing is "data dependent". Removing the dots in December would leave markets without a path guide at a live decision point. That is a concrete cost for the committee. https://www.scotsmanguide.com/news/waller-breaks-with-warsh-on-fed-forward-guidance-hints-at-october-rate-hold/ - [2026-06-14] Academic commentary (Money, Banking and Financial Markets) says abolishing the dots before a replacement framework is agreed would reduce accountability and raise uncertainty. It favours "transforming" them. This is the mainstream institutional view, which points toward modifying the dots rather than a total omission. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2026/6/14/warshs-communications-dilemma-talk-less-or-say-more - [2026-06-17] Warsh himself said he sees colleagues as "very open about changes". But Yahoo says that discontinuing the dots would require committee consensus, and he encouraged colleagues to keep submitting. That was after he had stopped the dots at his first meeting. He then chose process (a review) over fiat. Procedure favours slow change. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/article/fed-dot-plot-almost-half-of-fomc-members-project-at-least-one-interest-rate-hike-this-year-183645064.html - [2026-06-17] The "scrap as early as June" rumour (BigGo, 132 days old, citing unnamed "people familiar") did not happen. Warsh used the June meeting only to withhold his own dot and set up a review. That is one failed prediction of rapid abolition. https://finance.biggo.com/news/D_9jlZ4BtCxy99G5ONgi - [2026-10-15] Calendar, from sources dated Oct 8–15: no SEP in October, and the December SEP is scheduled at the Dec 8–9 meeting with "new projections and a new dot plot". Dec 9 is the only chance to resolve YES. The task force report would need to land, the FOMC would need to discuss it and agree, and the change would need to take effect inside roughly 8 weeks. The 2027 SEP dates are Mar 17, Jun 9, Sep 15 and Dec 8, all after the close. https://www.yxinsights.com/p/fomc-meeting-schedule - [2026-10-08] Hiking-cycle context: after the Oct 2 payrolls miss, October-hike odds fell to about 17%, but December-hike odds were about 81% (CME FedWatch, per the Scotsman Guide article). A December move is live and probably contentious. In a contested, data-dependent turning point, the committee is less likely to remove its own rate-path disclosure than in a calm period. Officials are also still debating the pace (Deutsche Bank's 2026-09 attribution of 75bp hawks versus 50bp doves, in Investing.com). https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/whos-who-in-feds-september-2026-dot-plot-4908178 - [2026-09-16] Under the 9/28 clarification, resolution requires omitting the rate projections "as a whole". Warsh's missing dot, any partial omission, and a changed format (rolling windows, a range, scenarios) all fail to qualify. Only a zero-dots SEP counts. That narrows YES to the most extreme outcome among the options in play (Waller's rolling windows, scenario analysis, a transformed plot). https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2026/6/14/warshs-communications-dilemma-talk-less-or-say-more - [2026-10-13] Sahm's piece (stayathomemacro, Oct 13) argues the pen should be handed to the Committee. This implies communications changes are Warsh-driven, and she notes the Chair is the outlier relative to Bernanke, Powell and Yellen. A chair at odds with the Committee on communications is a weaker bet to get unanimity, or even a majority, in time. https://stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/hand-the-pen-to-the-committee BOTTOM LINE: The status quo is a published dot plot at every SEP since 2012, including all three under Warsh. Getting to YES needs a task force report, an FOMC consensus and implementation within one meeting (Dec 9). The one named dissenting-on-format governor, Waller, publicly defends the SEP, and the clarification excludes partial or reformatted outcomes. NOT FOUND: Any Fed announcement, minutes language or credible report that the December SEP will drop all rate projections. A published date for the task-force report. Task-force membership beyond the unconfirmed Mervyn King report. The contract's "Source Agencies" list. The Fed's own Dec 9 SEP, which is not yet published.