Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?

- [2026-10-12/13] The Amit Institute's weekly review (Oct 5–12, published 10/13) says Hezbollah is reportedly preparing for renewed fighting. It is reportedly adding forces on both sides of the Litani and upgrading its explosive drones. It also says Berri persuaded Hezbollah not to escalate its campaign against the government. Only the search snippet was read; the page itself could not be fetched. https://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/spotlight-on-terrorism-hezbollah-and-lebanon-october-5-12-2026/ - [2026-10-20 to 22, scheduled] The next Israel–Lebanon round is set for Florida. Lebanon plans to ask for Israeli withdrawal from towns around Beaufort Castle, detainee releases and an international force to replace UNIFIL. This is the only scheduled event found before the close. Source is the same Amit snippet as above. https://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/spotlight-on-terrorism-hezbollah-and-lebanon-october-5-12-2026/ - [2026-10-06] Qassem said Hezbollah is ready to discuss the arms issue domestically under Lebanon's constitution and laws. He said it will make no concessions in exchange for an Israeli withdrawal, and that it will keep "resistance" up while Israeli operations continue. Profilenews says the speech "does not announce Hezbollah's disarmament" (search snippet only; the page returned 403). https://www.profilenews.com/en/naim-qassem-hezbollah-arms/ - [2026-09-27] In a speech marking two years since Nasrallah's death, Qassem rejected disarmament by the Lebanese army under current conditions. He tied any dialogue on disarmament to an Israeli withdrawal and to rescinding the government decisions restricting Hezbollah. Amit also reports that Hezbollah rejects disarmament as a precondition for an agreement with Israel but does not rule out a later discussion of the state's monopoly on arms. https://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/spotlight-on-terrorism-hezbollah-and-lebanon-september-23-october-5-2026/ - [2026-10-09] ORF (fetched in full) says the June 2026 US–Israel–Lebanon trilateral framework is "frozen". It says Hezbollah still holds its weapons, Israeli forces remain in Lebanon, and the pilot zones, phased withdrawal and disarmament are all unfulfilled. Israel demands disarmament first. Hezbollah says it will not disarm until Israel withdraws. https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/stuck-at-the-table-america-s-trilateral-gambit-in-lebanon - [2026-09-28] The National reports the Israel–Lebanon deal is stalled over sequencing, and that Lebanon has failed to disarm Hezbollah. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/us/2026/09/28/lebanon-calls-for-reciprocal-progress-on-israel-deal-as-disarming-hezbollah-remains-stalled/ - [2026-10-12/13] The Lebanese army seized explosives that Beirut linked to Hezbollah. PM Salam vowed a firm response, but the army's capacity is limited. Separately, Al-Modon reports (via the Jerusalem Post) that Hezbollah is rebuilding and upgrading its drones. https://english.alarabiya.net/amp/News/middle-east/2026/10/12/lebanon-vows-firm-action-after-seizing-explosives-including-those-linked-to-assassinations - [2026-10-13] Algemeiner reports that Hezbollah "continues to refuse to disarm". It cites a survey finding about two-thirds of Lebanese Shias favour disarmament. It also says talks have reportedly discussed foreign personnel (Italy, Switzerland, Jordan) overseeing weapons removal. https://www.algemeiner.com/2026/10/13/two-thirds-lebanese-shias-want-hezbollah-disarmed-survey-finds-openness-peace-israel/ - [2026-06-26/27] The framework was signed in Washington without Hezbollah. It links Israeli withdrawal to Hezbollah's disarmament. Qassem criticised it on June 27 and said Hezbollah will keep fighting until Israel leaves. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/jun/27/lebanons-deal-israel-requires-hezbollah-disarm-might-difficult/ - [2026-08-05] Rome talks (the seventh round overall): Lebanon and Israel remained split over disarmament. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/5/lebanon-and-israel-still-split-over-disarming-hezbollah-at-rome-talks - [2026-05-25] Qassem said disarmament would mean the "destruction of Lebanon". https://iranwire.com/en/news/152869-hezbollah-chief-rejects-calls-for-groups-disarmament/ - [Undated, around mid-2026] Qassem said "any project to remove the weapons of the resistance will not pass", and rejected "pilot zones" and "yellow zones". https://thisisbeirut.com.lb/news/politics/qassem-any-disarmament-project-will-not-pass - [2026-10-12] The EU is setting up a three-year training mission for the Lebanese army and internal security forces. Its mandate is not disarmament. https://profilenews.com/en/eu-lebanon-mission BOTTOM LINE: As of 2026-10-15, no Hezbollah announcement of disarmament, even partial, has been found. Qassem's latest line (Oct 6) is a willingness to discuss arms domestically, but only after an Israeli withdrawal, and that is conditional language the rules exclude. Talks are deadlocked over sequencing, and the only scheduled event before the close is the Oct 20–22 round in Florida. NOT FOUND: Any Hezbollah statement committing to a formal disarmament process. Any scheduled Lebanese cabinet vote or Hezbollah–state dialogue date. The full text of the Amit Oct 5–12 review and the Profilenews piece (access blocked).

- [2026-10-13] Amit Institute's weekly tracker (search snippet only; the page would not open): Hezbollah is reportedly preparing for renewed fighting on both sides of the Litani. The heavy-weapons and warehouse phases north of the Litani depend on future government decisions. Talks with Israel are set for Florida on Oct 20-22. https://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/spotlight-on-terrorism-hezbollah-and-lebanon-october-5-12-2026/ - [2026-10-06] Qassem said Hezbollah is willing to discuss arms domestically under the constitution. He ruled out concessions in exchange for an Israeli withdrawal and said "resistance" continues while Israeli operations continue. One analysis of the speech says it does not announce disarmament but leaves the door open to domestic talks. Snippet only; the page was blocked. https://www.profilenews.com/en/naim-qassem-hezbollah-arms/ - [2026-09-27] On the anniversary of Nasrallah's death, Qassem rejected disarmament "under the current conditions" and rejected disarmament by the Lebanese army. Hezbollah did not rule out a future discussion of the state's weapons monopoly. It tied that discussion to Israeli withdrawal and an end to attacks. Snippet only. https://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/spotlight-on-terrorism-hezbollah-and-lebanon-september-23-october-5-2026/ - [2026-10-09] ORF analysis (fetched): the June 26 US-Israel-Lebanon framework is "frozen". Israel treats disarmament as a precondition. Hezbollah says it will not disarm until Israel withdraws. Hezbollah was not a party to the deal and rejected it. Aoun said there are "no new talks" at present. The IDF is operating 10–12 miles inside Lebanon, and Hezbollah retains its weapons. https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/stuck-at-the-table-america-s-trilateral-gambit-in-lebanon - [2026-06-27] AP: the framework links Israeli withdrawal to Hezbollah's disarmament, which the group rejects. Qassem said Hezbollah will keep fighting until Israel leaves. Earlier ceasefires negotiated by Lebanon were never implemented on the ground. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/lebanons-deal-with-israel-requires-hezbollah-to-disarm-that-might-be-difficult - [2026-08-05] Rome talks: the sides remained split over disarmament. Al Jazeera's report cited a Lebanese official as saying Israel dropped its demand that disarmament be discussed before the border file. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/5/lebanon-and-israel-still-split-over-disarming-hezbollah-at-rome-talks - [2026-05-25] Qassem said that disarming would mean the "destruction of Lebanon". https://iranwire.com/en/news/152869-hezbollah-chief-rejects-calls-for-groups-disarmament/ - [2026-01-08] The Lebanese state declared phase one (south of the Litani) complete, and CNN reported that Hezbollah largely tolerated it. Hezbollah never announced it, and Lebanon later chose "containment" north of the Litani. This is state-led action, not a Hezbollah announcement. https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/08/middleeast/hezbollah-disarmament-israel-lebanon-conflict-intl - [2025-08-07] Historical pattern: the Lebanese cabinet decided on a state arms monopoly. Hezbollah rejected it, and Qassem threatened a "Karbala-like" battle. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naim_Qassem - [Reference class] The Taif Accord (1989) and UNSCR 1559 (2004) called for disarmament. UNSCR 1701 (2006) did too. Hezbollah never agreed, and it used force in May 2008 when the state moved against its network. Over about 37 years it has made zero formal disarmament announcements. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/history-and-future-of-hezbollah-disarmament/ - [Reference class] Successful decommissionings (the IRA, in a process completed in 2005 under an independent commission) came after a negotiated political settlement. Hezbollah has no such process. Brookings' Feltman says neither Israel nor the Lebanese army can disarm Hezbollah by force. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/lebanon-between-war-and-statehood-shrinking-the-space-for-hezbollah/ - [2026-10] Possible YES path: the Oct 20-22 talks, or a Qassem statement accepting a phased or "state monopoly" process in exchange for Israeli withdrawal. The resolution rules exclude statements that are conditional on future events. A statement like Qassem's Oct 6 one, tying arms to withdrawal, would likely not count. https://www.profilenews.com/en/naim-qassem-hezbollah-arms/ BOTTOM LINE: The base rate for a formal Hezbollah disarmament announcement is near zero. Hezbollah has refused every disarmament demand since 1989, and as of mid-October 2026 it still rejects disarmament. The only softening is conditional language that the criteria exclude, so YES would need an unprecedented, unconditional policy change within about 11 weeks. NOT FOUND: Polls or expert probability estimates on Hezbollah disarming by year-end. I did not search for this contract's price, as instructed. I could not open the Amit Institute pages or the Profile News page in full, so the Oct 6 and Sept 27 bullets rest on search snippets.

YES means: Hezbollah's leadership (Qassem, a successor, or the widely acknowledged leadership) officially announces a public, formal, unconditional commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military in Lebanon, partially or fully, as part of an acknowledged process. Credible reporting that such a policy has been instituted also counts. Conditional or informal statements do not count. - [2026-10-06] The Amit weekly (search snippet only; the fetch was blocked) quotes Qassem as saying Hezbollah is "prepared to cooperate on internal issues, including restricting weapons". He framed it as within constitutional frameworks and without dictates from American or other patrons. This is the nearest thing to a YES hook: the language of "restricting weapons" is new relative to "remove disarmament from your vocabulary" (April 2025). Qassem still says Hezbollah has "nothing to offer" for an Israeli withdrawal. https://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/spotlight-on-terrorism-hezbollah-and-lebanon-october-5-12-2026/ - [2026-10-03 to 10-05] Hezbollah MP Hassan Fadlallah said that after an Israeli withdrawal the group would be ready for dialogue on a national security strategy. Hezbollah rejected disarmament as a precondition for a deal but did not exclude a later discussion of the state's arms monopoly. Amit read this as the party keeping its options open (snippet only). https://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/spotlight-on-terrorism-hezbollah-and-lebanon-september-23-october-5-2026/ - [2026-10-08] Possible mechanism: US-led talks examined linking an Israeli withdrawal south of the Litani to parallel removal of Hezbollah weapons north of it. The verification mechanism would run under UN cover with other countries taking part. No agreement was reported. A package like this would give Hezbollah a face-saving, reciprocal route. It would still need to be announced as unconditional to count. https://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/spotlight-on-terrorism-hezbollah-and-lebanon-september-23-october-5-2026/ - [2026-10-02] The Florida round on Oct 20 is purely military: Lebanon, Israel and a US general. Lebanon will ask for the pilot zone to grow and for a named verification team to certify the zone is free of Hezbollah weapons and fighters. The first pilot zone (Froun, Srifa, Zawtar al-Sharqiya) is already running. This is the only live "acknowledged disarmament process" (per the House of Commons Library, a framework of phased disarmament with pilot zones). A Hezbollah statement accepting the zone-based process would count as "a certain region". https://dailybeirut.com/en/lebanon-news/lebanese-israeli-negotiations-florida-lebanese-delegation-proposals/ ; https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-10887/ - [2026-10-12] Middle East Eye (fetched): Aoun–Hezbollah communication continues through an established channel, though trust has largely collapsed. Hezbollah's stated "first step" is that the government reverse its March 2 ban on Hezbollah's military activities. Baabda says it does not know "who is leading the party". The ban reversal could be traded for a defense-strategy deal. The ban's reversal and Hezbollah's own decision structure are both unresolved. https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/uneasy-partners-open-distrust-aoun-and-hezbollah-struggle-rebuild-ties - [2026-10-13] Amit: Berri persuaded Hezbollah to hold back its campaign against the government. Berri is the party's channel to Washington, and Hezbollah refuses a direct US channel. Berri's long-standing formula is dialogue on the "fate" of the weapons. He has said he is open to it, and he is the likeliest broker of any announcement. https://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/spotlight-on-terrorism-hezbollah-and-lebanon-october-5-12-2026/ ; https://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/315014-berri-says-open-to-dialogue-over-fate-of-hezbollah-s-arms - [2026-10-27] Israeli Knesset elections are on Oct 27. The Oct 20 talks were timed before them. A post-election government, or a US push tied to the Iran track, could reopen sequencing. This is a calendar fact, not evidence of a shift. https://dailybeirut.com/en/lebanon-news/lebanese-israeli-negotiations-florida-lebanese-delegation-proposals/ - [2025-04 / ITIC assessment] The Amit Institute assessed that Hezbollah will keep opposing disarmament publicly but may accept partial disarmament, mainly south of the Litani, in exchange for guarantees. In 2025, Wafiq Safa said Hezbollah helped the army clear the south of the Litani. The partial-disarmament precedent is a de facto cooperation, not an announcement. https://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/implementation-of-the-lebanese-armys-plan-to-disarm-hezbollah-status-report/ ; https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/in-rare-interview-top-hezbollah-leader-rejects-disarmament-calls-for-israeli-withdrawal - [2026-10-12] Profile News says the next test is whether Qassem's willingness leads to formal Hezbollah–state talks. It adds that there is currently "no announced disarmament agreement". https://www.profilenews.com/en/naim-qassem-hezbollah-arms/ Single most likely path to YES: an Israel–Lebanon–US package (pilot zone expansion plus parallel steps north of the Litani, with a UN-backed verification mechanism) brokered via Berri. Qassem or the party leadership would then publicly endorse a staged, region-by-region handover of heavy weapons to the army. Prerequisites: - Israel commits to withdraw, or Hezbollah decouples the announcement from withdrawal. - The March 2 ban is reversed or softened. - Hezbollah publicly frames the step as a "national defence strategy" or "weapons restriction" that is not conditional on events still to come. Every step is currently unmet. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES case rests on Qassem's Oct 6 shift to "restricting weapons" within constitutional frameworks, Berri's brokering, and a live pilot-zone process that a staged announcement could attach to. All of these are conditional and unfulfilled, and the group is reportedly preparing for renewed fighting, so a YES needs a sharp reversal within about 11 weeks. NOT FOUND: Any Hezbollah announcement of disarmament, even partial. Any scheduled Hezbollah–state dialogue or cabinet vote. Direct access to the Amit pages (blocked, so Amit claims rest on snippets). Any reporting that Israel has agreed to withdraw before disarmament.

YES means: Hezbollah's leadership (Qassem or a successor) formally and unconditionally announces a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military in Lebanon, in whole or in part, as part of an acknowledged disarmament process before Dec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. A credible wide consensus of reporting that such a policy has been instituted also counts. - [2026-10-13] The Amit weekly (fetched in full via browser) lists Hezbollah's own Oct 7 statement as reaffirming the "resistance" path and rejecting any concession for an Israeli withdrawal. Its MPs sharpened the line on Oct 5–6. Hassan Izz al-Din said the weapons and "our souls are twins". Mustafa Bayram called the government "temporary" and warned it would be treated like Israel if it acted like Israel. Qassem's Oct 6 opening was to "cooperate" on the state arms monopoly "within constitutional frameworks" and without external dictates. That is a statement of conditions, not a policy directive. https://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/spotlight-on-terrorism-hezbollah-and-lebanon-october-5-12-2026/ - [2026-10-13] The same Amit review says Hezbollah is receiving funds and preparing housing payments. Reportedly it got $200M from Iran and earns about $40M a month from smuggling, counterfeiting and state-budget sources. These are signs of an organisation resourcing itself for the long term, not preparing to dissolve its military. They are reports, not confirmed facts. https://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/spotlight-on-terrorism-hezbollah-and-lebanon-october-5-12-2026/ - [2026-10-13] Amit says Hezbollah's "positive" tone toward the state followed pressure. Berri reportedly persuaded it not to escalate against the government. Al-Diyar describes Qassem's speeches as sending a "positive message" about dialogue on weapons within a "national security strategy". Hezbollah still rejects the framework agreement, so any dialogue would be domestic, open-ended and unscheduled. https://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/spotlight-on-terrorism-hezbollah-and-lebanon-october-5-12-2026/ - [2026-10-14] i24 (fetched) quotes a senior Israeli security official saying there is "virtually no progress" on the ground. Hezbollah infrastructure is not being dismantled, and the Lebanese army (LAF) does not assert itself. Israel suspects LAF fear of, or cooperation with, Hezbollah. The Israeli view is that the status quo is "not necessarily bad", because the IDF can act independently. That removes Israeli urgency for a quick deal. The Oct 20–22 round is at CENTCOM in Tampa and is military-level. https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel/defense/artc-israel-frustrated-as-lebanese-army-fails-to-dismantle-hezbollah-infrastructure - [2026-10-14] i24 says about 7,000 UNIFIL personnel are expected to leave by year-end. That removes a monitoring layer, and the proposed replacement force is only a Lebanese request. It makes a Hezbollah-accepted verification regime before Dec 31 less likely, not more. https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel/defense/artc-israel-frustrated-as-lebanese-army-fails-to-dismantle-hezbollah-infrastructure - [2026-10-12] The House of Commons Library (updated, current) says the June 26 framework's disarmament process "has not been published", has no timescale, and Hezbollah "continues to reject disarmament". Even a Lebanese state or Israeli announcement of a schedule would not be a Hezbollah announcement. https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-10887/ - [2026-09 / 2026-10] Pressure has not worked. Qassem has been told Israel might push as far as Beirut if Hezbollah keeps its arms (US ambassador Issa's reported message, L'Orient Today, Oct 6). He still answered with "no concessions". Coercion has run for 11 months without a formal announcement. https://today.lorientlejour.com/article/1549911/qassem-says-ready-to-cooperate-on-states-monopoly-on-arms-but-without-diktats.html - [2026-05-25 / ~2026-05] Qassem's May 25 Resistance and Liberation Day speech said "there is no such thing as exclusivity of weapons or disarming Hezbollah". He called disarmament a "prelude to extermination". He has also said arms are an "internal Lebanese matter", not part of talks with Israel, so Hezbollah's stated doctrine rejects any announcement made as a result of an Israel deal. https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-897173 - [2026-01-08 to 2026-02-12] Precedent shows how ambiguity resolves. The Lebanese state declared phase one (south of the Litani) complete. The cabinet was to decide phase two in February. Hezbollah "largely allowed" phase one but did not announce it. Tolerating state action is not a public commitment. A resolver reading the "official announcement" requirement literally has no Hezbollah act to point to. https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/08/middleeast/hezbollah-disarmament-israel-lebanon-conflict-intl - [2025-12-31 / 2026-03-31] Sibling Polymarket markets with the same wording have closed or been open without a Yes. The Dec 31, 2025 market had been priced at about 11% (snapshot undated). The Mar 31, 2026 sibling was listed at 11% and 56% on different strikes, with a Nov 2025 snapshot. Hezbollah made no qualifying announcement in either window, despite a June 2026 US-Israel-Lebanon framework and several war and ceasefire phases. https://polymarket.com/event/will-hezbollah-to-disarm-before-in-2025 - [2026-10-14] Deadline arithmetic: about 11 weeks remain. The only dated catalyst is a military-level Tampa round. No cabinet vote, national security strategy dialogue date or Hezbollah decision-making event is scheduled. Any Hezbollah sequence would run: dialogue launched, terms agreed, then a formal announcement. The Israeli demand for disarmament first and Hezbollah's demand for withdrawal first remain opposed, and the Israeli withdrawal it requires has not started. https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/stuck-at-the-table-america-s-trilateral-gambit-in-lebanon - [2026-10-13] The Algemeiner survey (two-thirds of Lebanese Shias favour disarmament) shows social pressure but no organisational change. Amit's report instead shows Hezbollah reinforcing on both sides of the Litani. The trend is toward rebuilding, not dismantling. https://www.algemeiner.com/2026/10/13/two-thirds-lebanese-shias-want-hezbollah-disarmed-survey-finds-openness-peace-israel/ BOTTOM LINE: Nothing is scheduled that could produce a formal, unconditional Hezbollah disarmament policy by Dec 31. Qassem's Oct 6 "cooperate on arms" line is the conditional language the rules exclude. Eleven months of coercion, a frozen framework and reports of rearmament all point to the status quo (NO). NOT FOUND: Any Hezbollah announcement, formal or partial, of a disarmament process. Any scheduled Hezbollah–state dialogue or cabinet vote date. The L'Orient Today page itself (403; its content is from the search snippet only). Any independent probability estimate.