Will Port of Virginia total container volume for 2026 be above 3.45 million TEUs?

- [2026-09-08] The official Monthly Statistics workbook was last updated on this date and covers data through Aug-26. Monthly total TEUs for 2026 are: Jan 261,482; Feb 233,911; Mar 304,227; Apr 262,520; May 294,304; Jun 280,145; Jul 273,006; Aug 283,547. My sum of Jan–Aug 2026 is about 2,193,142 TEUs. https://wp.portofvirginia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Port-of-Virginia-Website-Statistics.xlsx - [2026-09-08] The same workbook gives 2025 monthly totals of 268,617, 244,597, 300,741, 294,403, 288,191, 244,436, 259,237 and 291,397 for Jan–Aug, summing to about 2,191,619. Jan–Aug 2026 is therefore roughly flat year on year, up about 0.07% by my arithmetic. https://wp.portofvirginia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Port-of-Virginia-Website-Statistics.xlsx - [2026-09-08] The 2025 monthly totals for Sep–Dec are 263,598, 269,129, 249,719 and 265,573. My sum of 2025 for the full year is about 3,239,638 TEUs. Virginia Business reports 3.23M for 2025. https://wp.portofvirginia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Port-of-Virginia-Website-Statistics.xlsx - [2026-09-08] Reaching more than 3.45M requires about 1,256,858 TEUs in Sep–Dec 2026, roughly 314k per month. The highest 2026 month so far is Mar-26 at 304,227. The workbook's 2024 months top out at 328,682 (May-24). Sep–Dec 2025 averaged about 262k per month. https://wp.portofvirginia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Port-of-Virginia-Website-Statistics.xlsx - [2026-10-15] The Port's statistics page links to the Sep-2026 workbook, whose upload folder is 2026/09. It also links a weekly dashboard dated 10-11-2026 and an operational alert about gate hour changes effective 2026-10-13. I did not see Sep-26 totals published. https://operations.portofvirginia.com/port-statistics/ - [Date not shown in snippet; about mid-Sep 2026, ~29 days before the search] AJOT reports FY2026 (Jul 2025–Jun 2026) volume finished 1.6% below budget, with Q4 total TEUs up 1.2%. Jan–May 2026 loaded TEUs were 1.13M, up 2.5% year on year. Virginia was the only one of four East Coast ports compared to grow. The Port said it expects to finish calendar 2026 ahead of last year, which is a claim of growth, not of 3.45M. I could not fetch the full page (403), so this comes from the search snippet. https://www.ajot.com/premium/ajot-port-of-virginias-expansion-already-paying-dividends - [about 2026-05] Virginia Business: the Port handled 3.23M TEUs in 2025, with tariffs cited as a drag. It also reports that the Supreme Court ruled some tariffs illegal, after which Trump ordered 10% tariffs under other authorities. https://virginiabusiness.com/port-of-virginia-expands-capacity-gateway-investment/ - [2026-03] The Port said NIT expansion adds capacity by mid-2027, and the 55-foot channel dredging was completed in late Feb 2026. Capacity is not the binding constraint. https://www.freightwaves.com/news/uncertainty-the-new-baseline-as-the-port-of-virginia-plans-to-meet-the-moment BOTTOM LINE: Through Aug 2026 the Port is running essentially flat against 2025, which totalled about 3.24M. The 3.45M threshold would need an average of about 314k TEUs a month for Sep–Dec, above every month of 2025–26. A plausible full-year 2026 total is therefore roughly 3.2–3.3M. NOT FOUND: Sep-2026 monthly TEU totals, which are not yet in the workbook version I read; any Port press release for Sep 2026; any Port forecast of a specific 2026 TEU total.

- [2026-09-08] The Port's own Monthly Statistics workbook, the resolution source, shows 2026 monthly TEUs through August. They are: Jan 261,482; Feb 233,911; Mar 304,227; Apr 262,520; May 294,304; Jun 280,145; Jul 273,006; Aug 283,547. My sum is 2,193,142 TEUs for Jan–Aug. Source: https://wp.portofvirginia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Port-of-Virginia-Website-Statistics.xlsx - [2026-09-08] The same workbook gives Jan–Aug 2025 as about 2,191,619 TEUs, so 2026 year-to-date is roughly flat (+0.07%, my calculation). Monthly 2025 figures for Sep–Dec were 263,598; 269,129; 249,719; 265,573, which sum to 1,048,019. Calendar 2025 therefore totals about 3,239,638 TEUs, consistent with the "3.23 million" in press coverage. Source: https://wp.portofvirginia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Port-of-Virginia-Website-Statistics.xlsx - [2026-10-15] Reaching more than 3.45M requires about 1,256,858 TEUs in Sep–Dec 2026. That is roughly 314k per month, or about +20% on Sep–Dec 2025. The highest month so far in 2026 is March at 304,227. This is a sum from the workbook, not a published figure. Source: https://wp.portofvirginia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Port-of-Virginia-Website-Statistics.xlsx - [2026-10-15] Historical calendar-year totals from the workbook: 2024 about 3.30M (sum of the 2024 months). 2023 was about 3.3M, per the Port's own page. 2025 was about 3.24M. Source: https://www.portofvirginia.com/gateway/capabilities/ - [2026-10-15] No month in the workbook's 2023–2026 window exceeds about 328k TEUs (May 2024 was 328,682). A 314k average over four months, including seasonally weak Nov and Dec, would be unprecedented in that window. Source: https://wp.portofvirginia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Port-of-Virginia-Website-Statistics.xlsx - [2026-09-15] Port spokesman Joe Harris says volumes are "trending ahead of last year" and expects calendar 2026 to finish ahead of 2025. The Virginia Maritime Association's executive director expects "nice growth". Neither claim implies anything near +6.5% (3.45M vs. 3.24M). Source: https://www.ajot.com/premium/ajot-port-of-virginias-expansion-already-paying-dividends - [2026-09-15] Fiscal 2026 volume (Jul 2025–Jun 2026) came in 1.6% below budget. Q4 FY26 TEUs were up 1.2%. Jan–May 2026 loaded TEUs were up 2.5% year on year. Source: https://www.ajot.com/premium/ajot-port-of-virginias-expansion-already-paying-dividends - [2026-10-14] Descartes reports US container imports of 2.55M TEUs in September 2026, up 10.3% year on year. Jan–Sep US imports are up only 0.8%. Gulf Coast imports were 0.4% below September 2025. This is US-wide data, not Virginia-specific. Source: https://www.ajot.com/news/descartes-global-shipping-report-u.s-container-imports-reach-highest-september-volume-on-record - [2026-10-15] Capacity is not binding. NIT expansion adds capacity through mid-2027, and total capacity is planned at 5.8M TEUs. Source: https://www.freightwaves.com/news/uncertainty-the-new-baseline-as-the-port-of-virginia-plans-to-meet-the-moment - [2026-10-15] Reference-class check: Virginia's calendar-year growth has been low single digits in recent years. I found no calendar-year total of 3.45M or more in the data I saw (the record is a fiscal-year 3.7M in FY2022). Calendar-year jumps of about 6.5% have followed only surge years like 2021 and 2022. Source: https://virginiabusiness.com/port-of-virginia-overview-2025/ BOTTOM LINE: With Jan–Aug 2026 flat against 2025 and an estimated finish near 3.24–3.30M, a result above 3.45M would need Sep–Dec to run about 20% above last year. That is far outside the recent range, and no source forecasts it. The base rate points strongly to NO. NOT FOUND: the September 2026 monthly TEU figure (the Port's workbook was last updated 2026-09-08, covering through August). The Port's calendar-2025 total as an official press-release figure. Any analyst or market forecast of a 2026 Virginia calendar-year total.

YES means: the Port of Virginia's official Monthly Statistics workbook shows total TEUs for Jan–Dec 2026 above 3,450,000. The evidence for YES is thin. I found no source that projects 3.45M. The case below is the best one I can build, and it needs a large Q4 surge. - [2026-03] The Port's own 2025 Trade Overview confirms 3,239,638 TEUs for calendar 2025, so the workbook sum is the official figure. That makes the gap to 3.45M exactly +210,362 TEUs, or +6.5%. With Jan–Aug 2026 flat (colleagues, Sep 8), Sep–Dec would need about +20% year on year. The report also shows Virginia ranked third on the East Coast at 12.0% share. https://wp.portofvirginia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/2025-Trade-Overview.pdf - [2026-10-08] The NRF/Hackett Global Port Tracker, a primary release, projects US imports of 2.28M TEU for September (+8.2% y/y) and 2.25M for October (+8.5% y/y). November is projected at 2.0M (−1%) and December at 2.02M (+0.6%). The full year is 25.8M, up 1.4%. This is the strongest macro support for a Q4 lift: the Sep–Oct year-on-year gains are real, and the tracker covers Port of Virginia. Even so, +8% on Sep–Oct 2025 (about 532k) adds only about 43k TEUs. That is roughly a fifth of the 210k gap. https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/import-cargo-s-extended-peak-season-wrapping-up - [2026-10-14] Descartes measured September US imports at +10.3% y/y, a record for the month, and NRF raised its October forecast 6.6% from the prior month's projection (colleagues cited Descartes; WWD adds the NRF revision). The upside surprise relative to forecasts supports the idea that Sep–Oct could beat the Port's 2025 comps (263.6k and 269.1k). https://wwd.com/sourcing-journal/logistics/nrf-peak-shipping-season-global-port-tracker-descartes-imports-cargo-1239335219/ - [2026-08-07] The earlier NRF forecasts for the autumn were weaker. September was forecast at 2.16M (+2.8%) and October at 2.13M (+2.7%). The October 8 forecast is therefore about 5 points higher for each month. If Virginia captured the same revision, Sep–Oct could run roughly +8%. https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/import-cargo-s-early-peak-season-is-winding-down - [2026-09-15] The Port told AJOT its volumes were "trending ahead of last year". It also said the "fall retail season looks promising". Loaded TEUs Jan–May were +2.5%, and Q4 FY26 loaded imports were +6.1%. The mix matters for YES: empties fell 13.5%, so total TEUs lag loaded growth. If empties stabilise, total TEU growth would converge up toward the loaded growth rate. https://www.ajot.com/premium/ajot-port-of-virginias-expansion-already-paying-dividends - [2026-10-12] The Port's statistics page was modified on Oct 12 and links a weekly dashboard dated Oct 11. Gate hours changed effective Oct 13, a sign of operational adjustment to volume. The dashboard returned 403 and I could not read it. The Sep workbook is also not yet visible. https://operations.portofvirginia.com/port-statistics/ - [2026-08-19] Hapag-Lloyd's operating update showed vessel waiting at Norfolk of only 3–4 hours and gate turn times of 26–43 minutes. That is no congestion, so capacity would not cap a surge. The same update notes the SEC service has omitted Norfolk until further notice, which is a small negative for volume. https://www.hapag-lloyd.com/en/services-information/operational-updates/updates/2026/02/ops-update-north-america-week-34.html - [2026-04-23] Interim CEO McCoy said container volume is up 20% to 3.4M TEUs since 2021 (FreightWaves). That is a loose rounding of the 3.24–3.30M calendar figures. It could be read as supporting the 3.4M level, but it does not support 3.45M. https://www.freightwaves.com/news/uncertainty-the-new-baseline-as-the-port-of-virginia-plans-to-meet-the-moment Single most likely path to YES: September–December 2026 totals about 1.257M TEUs, an average of about 314k per month. Prerequisites: 1. Sep and Oct each reach about 330k or more. That is above the 2024 peak of 328.7k, and about +25% y/y. 2. Nov and Dec stay near 300k, versus 250k and 266k in 2025. 3. Empties and exports rebound sharply, since loaded imports alone are growing only mid-single digits. 4. The workbook is revised upward, or a one-off event such as a diversion from other ports occurs. Nothing I found indicates any of these. BOTTOM LINE: The best YES case rests on a stronger-than-forecast national Sep–Oct import surge and the Port's upbeat "ahead of last year" guidance. Both are consistent with a 2026 total only a few percent above 2025's 3.24M, and they fall far short of the 6.5% needed. YES requires an unprecedented Q4 outside every cited forecast. NOT FOUND: Sep-2026 Port of Virginia TEUs; the Oct 11 weekly dashboard (403); any Port or analyst projection of 3.45M or higher for 2026; any Virginia-specific Sep–Dec volume forecast.

YES means: the Port of Virginia's official Monthly Statistics workbook shows total TEUs for Jan–Dec 2026 above 3,450,000. - [2026-10-08] The NRF/Hackett Global Port Tracker, which includes Virginia, projects national imports of 25.8M TEU for 2026, up 1.4% on 2025. It projects Nov at -1% y/y and Dec at +0.6% y/y. It has Jan 2027 at -1.9%. A +6.5% year at Virginia would need Virginia to beat the national forecast by a wide margin. Late-year demand is forecast flat, not surging. https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/import-cargo-s-extended-peak-season-wrapping-up - [2026-10-08] Per NRF's Gold, the peak season "started early" and is likely past. Most holiday merchandise has already arrived. Q4 is replenishment, so there is no late surge to fill a ~1.26M TEU Sep–Dec gap. The same release says Aug was down 0.7% y/y nationally. https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/import-cargo-s-extended-peak-season-wrapping-up - [2026-10-09] Sep and Oct national import growth (+8.2% and +8.5%) is against weak 2025 comparisons, which were hit by tariff-driven front-loading. Even applying +8.5% to Virginia's Sep–Dec 2025 base of ~1.048M gives ~1.14M. That leaves Sep–Dec ~115k short of the ~1.257M needed, and Nov–Dec are forecast flat. Virginia would also need to exceed that +8% in all four months. This is my arithmetic on the colleagues' base. https://sgbonline.com/nrf-u-s-container-imports-slows-as-expected-in-october/ - [2026-09-15] The Port's own wording is only that it will "finish calendar 2026 ahead of last year". That is a modest-growth claim. Management, which has the data, did not claim a record or a 3.4M+ year. The Port's FY26 volume was 1.6% below budget, so internal plans were already missed. https://www.ajot.com/premium/ajot-port-of-virginias-expansion-already-paying-dividends - [2026-09-15] The same article says tariffs, geopolitical instability and trade policy remain challenges. It says cargo volumes are only "regaining their consistency". That language describes stabilisation, not breakout growth. https://www.ajot.com/premium/ajot-port-of-virginias-expansion-already-paying-dividends - [2026-04-30] Virginia Business and Old Dominion University economist Vinod Agarwal call 3.23M in 2025 a tariff-depressed result. Even a full rebound to the 2024 level (~3.3M) leaves the total ~150k below the strike. Closing that gap needs an unprecedented record month rate. https://virginiabusiness.com/issue/maritime-guide-2026/ - [2026-04-30] Developers paused speculative Hampton Roads warehouse construction as the Port "adjusts to new supply". That points to a logistics market with slack, not an imminent demand shock. https://virginiabusiness.com/issue/maritime-guide-2026/ - [2026-10-15] Deadline arithmetic: the strike is above 3.45M, so a figure of exactly 3.45M also resolves NO. The Aug workbook (colleagues' report) leaves Sep–Dec needing ~314k/month. That is about 10k above the best month in 2026 (Mar, 304k) and about 20% above 2025 Sep–Dec. No fetched source shows any month above 330k in the 2023–26 window. All four remaining months would have to set records. Nov and Dec are seasonally the weakest months. https://wp.portofvirginia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Port-of-Virginia-Website-Statistics.xlsx - [2026-09-xx] Port capacity is not a constraint. Even so, new capacity does not add cargo. NIT North adds capacity only by mid-2027, so it cannot lift 2026 volume. The Port's fiscal-year figures (e.g. FY24 3.50M, Jul–Jun) differ from calendar-year figures. A reader mistaking FY totals for calendar totals could overstate Virginia's volume, but the contract uses the calendar-year workbook sum. https://www.railwayage.com/intermodal/port-of-virginia-wraps-fy24-with-cargo-volume-growth-infrastructure-project-progress/ BOTTOM LINE: Jan–Aug was flat y/y, the national forecast for Nov–Dec is flat, and the Port itself says only "ahead of last year". The strike needs Sep–Dec to run ~20% above 2025 with every month at a record, so status quo and arithmetic both point to NO. NOT FOUND: Sep-2026 Virginia TEU total (not yet published). A Virginia-specific Global Port Tracker forecast. Any Port, analyst or press forecast of a 3.4M+ calendar-2026 total. The Virginia Business page was blocked (403), so its 3.23M figure comes from the search snippet.