Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?

- [2026-06-21/22] Vance and Ghalibaf led delegations in a quadrilateral round at Bürgenstock, Switzerland, with Pakistan and Qatar mediating. They agreed a 60-day roadmap and set up working groups. Senior Iranians then left, and technical talks were led by Deputy FM Gharibabadi. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks - [2026-07] The Islamabad MoU broke down in July over control of the Strait of Hormuz, per the Washington Times of 10-12. The US and Iran have been at war since Feb 28, with no diplomatic agreement since July. (I could not open the page; this comes from the search snippet.) https://washingtontimes.com/news/2026/oct/12/iranian-officials-respond-latest-us-proposal-review-says-foreign - [2026-08-04] Qatar said drafts were circulating but there were no direct talks. Rubio and Bessent signalled progress. https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/04/world/live-news/iran-war-trump - [2026-08-26 to 09-05] Trump said there was no timetable for talks. US officials said no bilateral negotiations were underway. Pakistan's PM hoped to host the next round. (Polymarket summary of news.) https://polymarket.com/event/next-round-of-us-iran-peace-talks-byptptpt-20260623022722982 - [2026-09-22] The most recent qualifying-type event found. At the UNGA in New York, Witkoff and Kushner took part in a roughly three-hour round with Araghchi's delegation. Witkoff said mediators shuttled between the sides all day, so it was indirect. Iranian media described it as an Araghchi–Witkoff meeting. Trump said another round would be scheduled "in the very near future." Earlier that day Rubio had said none was scheduled. https://www.aninews.in/news/world/us/steve-witkoff-says-us-iran-talks-were-promising-constructive-as-iran-confirms-fm-aragchis-meeting-with-envoy20260923060941/ - [2026-09-29] Trump said the two sides were talking via mediators, but that he had "offered them NOTHING." CBS headlines also said he rejected an Iranian proposal and expected talks to resume that week. https://www.cbsnews.com/us-iran-tensions/ - [2026-10-03] Reports said Iran was preparing for a "major round of fighting," and a third US carrier group was heading to the region. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2026/10/03/iran-gearing-up-for-major-round-of-fighting-with-us-source-says/ - [2026-10-08] Araghchi said messages are being exchanged through intermediaries and that Iran would answer the US reply to its "seven-day plan" within days. Pezeshkian reportedly called negotiations "meaningless" earlier that week. Trump pledged no strikes before the midterms and cited "productive conversations." https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-nuclear-donald-trump-vance-rubio-strait-of-hormuz/ - [2026-10-12] Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei said Iran is reviewing the latest US proposal and will reply via mediators. Tehran wants to return to the Islamabad MoU and objects to nuclear issues in the US proposals. https://washingtontimes.com/news/2026/oct/12/iranian-officials-respond-latest-us-proposal-review-says-foreign - [2026-10-11 to 10-12] Iran's SNSC head called the US response "insufficient" and said Iran is no longer responding to Washington. Pezeshkian said Iran had revised proposals and was ready to finalize them via intermediaries. https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-trump-us-elections-saudi-arabia-yemen-houthis/ - [2026-10-14] An Iranian VP said talks with the US require approval from the top security body and Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. Fox described a "midterm pause" on US strikes, with Houthi–Saudi strikes and Hormuz shipping incidents continuing. https://www.foxnews.com/live-news/us-iran-war-donald-trump-oil-nuclear-sites-hormuz-strait-october-14 - [2026-10-09 to 10-14] A Sunday Guardian live blog (about 10-09/10) said Trump stated there were no ongoing or scheduled talks with Iran and that the US naval blockade remains. https://sundayguardianlive.com/world/us-israel-iran-war-latest-live-news-trump-rules-out-scheduled-talks-with-tehran-says-strait-of-hormuz-is-open-as-us-naval-blockade-continues-302188/ - [2026-09-08] A sibling Polymarket market ("Next round of US-Iran peace talks by…?") listed deadlines of 09-30, 10-31, 12-31 and 2027-03-31. Its summary said the 12-31 strike rose to 42% around early September. This is a stale AI-generated snapshot. https://polymarket.com/event/next-round-of-us-iran-peace-talks-byptptpt-20260623022722982 BOTTOM LINE: As of 10-15 there is no scheduled senior US–Iran meeting. Contact is limited to message exchange through mediators (Pakistan, Qatar, Oman), and the war and blockade continue. A Witkoff/Kushner–Araghchi indirect round did happen on 09-22 in New York, so a qualifying round can arrive at short notice, and Trump has paused strikes until the midterms. NOT FOUND: Any announced date or venue for the next round. A confirmed qualifying meeting between 09-23 and 10-15. A readable Washington Times page (403). The resolution source's own current display.

- [2026-10-12] Iran says it is reviewing the latest US proposal and will reply with a counterproposal via mediators. Pakistan and Qatar remain the mediators. The Washington Times says the two countries have been at war since late February and have had no diplomatic agreement since July, when the memorandum broke down over control of the Strait of Hormuz. The Washington Times page returned 403 on fetch, so this rests on the search snippet. https://nation.com.pk/12-Oct-2026/iran-says-reviewing-us-proposals-talks-indirect-messages-continue - [2026-09-22] The most recent qualifying-type event was in New York on the UNGA sidelines. Witkoff said the US held lengthy talks with the Iranian delegation through mediators who shuttled between the two sides all day. Witkoff stressed the talks were indirect. Trump said the meeting lasted three hours and that another round would be "scheduled in the very near future." Hours earlier Rubio had said no meeting with Iranian officials was scheduled, so plans changed fast. Iranian state media said Araghchi met Witkoff directly. Today is 23 days later and I found no confirmed follow-up round. https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/433510 - [2026-09-22] Sibling Polymarket market "Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?" shows the September 30 strike resolved Yes, which fits the New York meeting. At the time of the page snapshot, the Oct 31, Dec 31 and Mar 31, 2027 strikes were still showing "Yes" labels. The page showed no live prices, so I report no odds. An earlier snippet had October 31 at about 20%. That snippet is dated roughly early September and is stale. The June 26 to Aug 31 strikes all resolved No. https://polymarket.com/event/next-round-of-us-iran-peace-talks-byptptpt-20260623022722982 - [2026-08-13] Deadlock period. Iran said it would not talk directly to the US because the US had violated the June 17 MoU by restarting strikes in July. Pakistan said it was working to bring the sides "to the negotiating table". https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/13/us-iran-talks-in-deadlock-whats-the-latest - [2026-08-27] The White House said there were no direct talks underway. Trump said Iran was "begging to make a deal" while talks stayed stalled. The gap between the July collapse and the Sept 22 meeting was about two months, with no qualifying meeting in between. https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-us-strait-of-hormuz-sanctions/ - [2026-06-22] Peak engagement. Vance and Ghalibaf led delegations at Bürgenstock, Switzerland, under a two-month negotiating period. The talks created a "High Level Committee" for political oversight. The process collapsed within about a month. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks - [2026-02/04] Cadence of qualifying meetings in 2026: Muscat on Feb 6, Geneva on Feb 17, when indirect talks began through Oman with Araghchi, Witkoff and Kushner , and a third round on Feb 26. Face-to-face talks followed in April, then the June Switzerland round. The war began in late February. In 2026 so far, qualifying senior meetings have occurred in roughly 5 of 9 months (Feb, Apr, Jun, Sep, plus a possible Mar–May contact). Gaps between meetings have ranged from about 1 week to about 2 months. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prelude_to_the_2026_Iran_war - [2025-04] Earlier base rate: in 2025, Araghchi and Witkoff held five rounds between April 12 and about late May, three in Muscat and two in Rome, with Omani mediation . Rounds came about weekly while a process was active. After the June 2025 strikes, contact was by text only until Feb 2026 (about 8 months with no formal meeting). https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iran/2025/iran-250525-irna02.htm - [2026-10-12] Iran's stated preconditions: a return to the Islamabad MoU and observance of its conditions. "Iran's preconditions must be observed for any negotiations," its spokesman said. Its public conditions for reopening Hormuz are lifting the blockade, releasing frozen assets and ending the war on all fronts. https://nation.com.pk/12-Oct-2026/iran-says-reviewing-us-proposals-talks-indirect-messages-continue - [2026-10-12] Resolution fit: indirect rounds with both delegations in the same city and mediators shuttling on the same day qualify. Sidelines meetings at the UNGA qualify only if a separate, deliberate meeting is held. Technical-level talks do not qualify. The 2.5 months left (Oct 15 to Dec 31) are comparable to the gaps seen so far in 2026. Mediators (Pakistan, Qatar, Oman) are active and messages are flowing. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/13/us-iran-talks-in-deadlock-whats-the-latest BOTTOM LINE: Qualifying senior meetings have recurred every 1–3 months in 2026 despite war, and mediators and message exchanges are active now. Iran's preconditions and the July collapse show how long gaps can run (July to Sept 22). The outside view therefore favors a meaningful chance of at least one qualifying round in the 2.5 months left, but it is far from certain. NOT FOUND: live price of this contract; any scheduled date or venue for the next round after Sept 22; expert or poll estimates on the timing of the next round; a full fetch of the Washington Times article (403); current prices for the sibling Oct 31, Dec 31 and Mar 31 strikes.

YES means: no qualifying direct or indirect senior-level US–Iran diplomatic meeting begins between now and 2026-12-31 11:59 PM ET. - [2026-10-02] Rubio reportedly ordered Araghchi's delegation to leave New York early after the Qatari-mediated indirect talks produced no breakthrough. The Sept 22 round therefore ended in a rebuke, not momentum. CNBC also reports the US is sending a third carrier group, with the buildup due to finish by November. The WSJ reports Trump told aides he expects to resume bombing that month. A strike resumption would remove the likeliest window for a round in the weeks after the midterms. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/02/us-iran-war-trump-hormuz-.html - [2026-10-08] The National (five diplomats and sources) says channels are limited to message-passing via Qatar, Pakistan and China. Both sides are preparing for a major confrontation. A Tehran source says Iran wants irreversible guarantees the US has declined to give. The source also describes a strong internal struggle among the IRGC, the foreign ministry and parliament, with significant opposition to negotiating. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2026/10/08/attempt-to-break-us-iran-diplomatic-deadlock-up-against-growing-appetite-for-major-war/ - [2026-09-23] Iran's SNSC secretary Rezaei said Iran will hold no talks until its conditions are met. He said Iran will not return to the Islamabad MoU position or to the pre-MoU position. He added that Iran is in no hurry because the US must earn its trust. Source: Sputnik via GlobalSecurity. https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iran/2026/09/iran-260923-sputnik01.htm - [2026-09-15] The same pattern appeared earlier. Rezaei rejected talks the day after Trump said he was open to them. Trump wrote that he "will determine whether or not" the US engages. Oman's planned Iran–Gulf meeting on Hormuz was postponed at Saudi request. https://www.rte.ie/news/middle-east/2026/0915/1591559-houthi-saudi-world/ - [2026-08-27] Trump said the US is "not looking to meet" Iran and "I don't want to meet, they do." Washington's strategy is blockade and sanctions pressure. https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-us-strait-of-hormuz-sanctions/ - [2026-09-25] The WSJ, via Breitbart, reports the US told Tehran and mediators it has no intention of lifting the blockade. It says a US-led tanker-escort effort reduced Washington's urgency for a deal. It also says Trump views a new bombing campaign as likely after the midterms. Iran's core demand is an end to the blockade, so there is no overlap to support a convened round. https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2026/09/25/trump-rejects-iran-seven-day-hormuz-proposal-expects-renew-strikes-midterms/ - [2026-10-11] Rezaei says Iran is "no longer in the process of responding to the Americans." The US reply via Qatar was "insufficient," and no negotiations will take place until the seven conditions are met. The Washington Times (10-12, search snippet) says Iran's response will come via mediators, still in message form. https://jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-911369 - [2026-10-14] Newsweek, two days earlier: the war is "stalled rather than settled." Escalation is escalating on a second front, with Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia and Riyadh airport closed. Pew finds 65% of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of the Iran war, which lowers the political payoff of a visible summit. https://newsweek.com/trump-houthis-saudi-arabia-iran-war-12556349 - [2026-10-08] The Hill (dated about 10-09): Trump's "no attacks before Nov 3" pledge comes with the blockade "in full force." A White House official said Trump "holds all the cards." Washington sees leverage in waiting, which reduces its incentive to convene. https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/6136781-trump-vows-no-iran-attack/ - [2026-10-12] Baghaei says Iran's Islamabad MoU preconditions apply to any negotiations. Nothing in these sources shows a scheduled venue or date. https://trend.az/iran/4233683.html Most likely path to NO (the other side): a round hosted by Pakistan, Qatar or Oman after the midterms. It would need Iran's SNSC and Supreme Leader to approve, and Trump to accept a deal on the blockade and Hormuz. The Sept 22 round shows such a round can be improvised in a day, so the YES case depends on that not recurring. BOTTOM LINE: The YES case rests on four points. The only 2026 round since the July collapse ended in a US rebuke. Both sides' preconditions are incompatible. Trump is reported to plan renewed bombing in November, and Iran's security chief says it is no longer responding. Contact will probably stay at message-passing unless a post-midterm shift occurs. NOT FOUND: Any announced date or venue for a round. Any statement from Trump or Witkoff after 10-12 about a meeting. The Washington Times page could not be opened in full, so that item rests on its search snippet. I did not fetch the Sunday Guardian or the Fox 10-14 reports.

YES means: No qualifying senior-level US–Iran meeting, direct or indirect, begins between now and 2026-12-31 11:59 PM ET. Note that the question text asks for the country of the "next" meeting, so the title and the resolution text may not map cleanly onto each other. - [2026-07-01/02] The Doha round after the June summit shows a technical-level format that would not count. Iran sent Deputy FM Gharibabadi, and Araghchi and Ghalibaf did not attend. Witkoff and Kushner were present, but the Iranian side was technical only, so the criteria would not be met. Qatar said the next meeting would follow Khamenei's funeral processions, and that did not produce a senior round either. The mechanism is that follow-on rounds tend to be downgraded or to slip. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/2/us-iran-talks-in-doha-what-were-the-outcomes-and-whats-next - [2026-09-23] The only senior contact since July was an ad hoc UNGA-sideline event. Al Jazeera notes accounts differed on whether the officials met directly. Iranian state media said it was held "at the request and insistence of the American side". Iran's conditions (lifting the blockade, releasing assets, ending the war on all fronts) were unchanged. The UNGA gave a one-off physical co-location, and nothing comparable is scheduled before year-end. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/23/us-iran-hold-mediated-unga-talks-on-ending-war-opening-strait-of-hormuz - [2026-09-23] Iranwire reports a domestic backlash over the Araghchi–Witkoff meeting (snippet only; the page returned 403). Tasnim and Fars attacked Araghchi. A parliamentary committee member demanded to know who authorized it. The outlets claimed top decision-making bodies had opposed the contact. This raises the political cost of any repeat senior meeting in Tehran. https://iranwire.com/en/news/157992-araghchi-faces-backlash-over-reported-meeting-with-us-envoy-witkoff/ - [2026-09-28] Even the follow-up round after UNGA was structured so that no US representative attended. ISNA said Araghchi would meet only the Qatari mediators in New York, and a Reuters official said the Qataris would hold separate talks with the US. That is mediator shuttling across separate meetings, not a single organized round with both delegations present. Such a format would likely fail the "same facility/venue/city, same day" test if the sides are not co-located. https://www.turkiyetoday.com/region/iran-fm-araghchi-to-meet-mediators-in-new-york-over-hormuz-proposal-3229170 - [2026-10-11] The SNSC secretary, Mohsen Rezaei, said Iran is "no longer in the process of responding to the Americans". He also said "no negotiations would take place" until Iran's seven conditions are met, and that the Strait would stay closed to the US until then. This sets a precondition on any meeting, set by an official who sits at the top of the security body Iran's VP said must approve talks. https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-911369 - [2026-10-11] AP via CBS says the new Iranian proposal at the UNGA, an accelerated MoU-style deal, was rejected, and the two sides have "remained in contact via mediation" only. The CBS live blog's lead item is stalled talks. The war's new centre of gravity is Houthi–Saudi fighting: Riyadh airport strikes killed at least 12 on 10-10, and Trump has said the US "may" join. Escalation on that front plus the Putin channel adds distractions and linkage demands. https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-trump-us-elections-saudi-arabia-yemen-houthis/ - [2026-10-12] The Washington Times confirms Iran's reply to the latest US proposal will go via Qatari and Pakistani mediators, and says there has been no diplomatic agreement since July. The Iranian position is that the MoU must be restored first. The current channel is written messages, which are explicitly excluded unless both parties are physically present. https://washingtontimes.com/news/2026/oct/12/iranian-officials-respond-latest-us-proposal-review-says-foreign - [2026-04-20] Precedent for announced rounds failing to materialize. Pakistan prepared an Islamabad round with billboards up, and Iran said it would not send negotiators after the US blockade seizure. This round-two attempt was abandoned within days of a ceasefire expiry. Even with mediators ready and a deadline looming, Iranian refusal blocked a meeting. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/20/pakistan-ready-for-multi-day-us-iran-talks-but-tehran-unsure-about-joining - [2026-03 to 06] Iran has suspended talks over Israel's Lebanon offensive (NBC, about 134 days before 10-15). Tasnim said the team suspended "talks and the exchange of texts". This shows Iran has used a suspension as leverage, and the same linkage could recur with Houthi and Lebanon escalation. https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/iran-suspends-talks-us-israel-attacks-lebanon-rcna347865 - [2026-10-03 and 10-10/14] The pause is the opposite of a peace track. Trump's pledge is only that there will be no strikes before the midterms (Nov 3), with reports he was weighing strikes afterward. A third carrier group was heading to the region. If strikes resume in November–December, rounds have historically stopped. In June 2025 the sides had no formal meeting for about 8 months after strikes. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2026/10/03/iran-gearing-up-for-major-round-of-fighting-with-us-source-says/ - [2026-10-12] Resolution-criteria friction: a sidelines meeting does not count unless it is "separately held" and deliberate, and an Iranian participant who is only a deputy FM or SNSC staff doesn't qualify. A named mediator shuttling messages over different days, or phone/remote exchanges, would not count. The questions on the 12-31 deadline thus require a physical round with a qualifying person from each side, which is a narrower event than "talks continue". https://washingtontimes.com/news/2026/oct/12/iranian-officials-respond-latest-us-proposal-review-says-foreign BOTTOM LINE: The status quo as of 10-15 is written exchanges through Qatar and Pakistan, an Iranian security-council line that no negotiations will happen until its conditions are met, and a political backlash in Tehran after the September meeting. The criteria also exclude technical-level, remote and non-co-located formats, which are what has mostly been used since July. Against this, the only senior event since July came suddenly on 09-22, so the argument rests on inertia and not on any scheduled barrier. NOT FOUND: any announced date or venue for a senior round after 09-22; any US or Iranian statement ruling out meetings through 12-31; a readable Iranwire page (403); a primary-source transcript of the Rezaei remarks.