Will there be no Hormuz agreement?

- [2026-04-07] The US and Iran agreed a two-week ceasefire. Trump made it conditional on Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz, and no mutually agreed text was released. The US blockade of Iranian ports followed on 13 April after the Islamabad talks failed. https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R45281 - [2026-06-17] Trump and Pezeshkian signed an "Islamabad" MOU. It lifted the US blockade, and Iran promised free safe passage for 60 days, with later administration of the strait to be set by Iran with Oman and Gulf states. Conflict resumed in July, and the US reinstated the blockade on 14 July. https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R45281 ; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_campaign - [2026-08-26] Iran and Oman announced a temporary Hormuz route. That was an Iran–Oman arrangement, not US–Iran. Iran has refused direct talks with the US since the July strikes, and Gharibabadi said the strait would not fully reopen until the US meets its MOU commitments. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/26/iran-oman-agree-on-temporary-hormuz-route-what-we-know - [2026-08-17] The 60-day ceasefire lapsed. Trump declined to extend it, and Araghchi said there was no ceasefire. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/17/us-iran-war-trump-hormuz.html - [2026-09-22/25] Araghchi met Witkoff and Kushner at the UN General Assembly, with Qatar, Pakistan and Egypt mediating. Iran offered to reopen Hormuz within 7 days if the US lifts the blockade, waives oil sanctions, releases frozen assets and observes a ceasefire that includes Lebanon. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/25/us-iran-trump-hormuz-.html ; https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/iran-has-suggested-a-deal-to-reopen-the-strait-of-hormuz-in-7-days - [2026-09-27/28] Trump rejected the Iranian plan, saying "it is not the deal that I want". He said strikes remain possible. He also expected talks to resume, and said he had offered Iran "nothing" in terms of relief. https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-us-trump-talks-strait-of-hormuz/ - [2026-09-29] Araghchi said Iran was awaiting a formal US reply through Qatar. The US Treasury added new Iran sanctions that day under "Operation Economic Outcast". https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-us-trump-talks-strait-of-hormuz/ - [2026-10-01 approx., reported as "Wednesday"] Iran said it had received a US counterproposal that reportedly includes a 7-day ceasefire. Qatari mediators were shuttling messages, with limited progress. Attacks on ships were still being reported. https://abc3340.com/news/nation-world/iran-reviews-us-ceasefire-counterproposal-as-strait-of-hormuz-terms-remain-unclear - [2026-10-04] Ghalibaf, Iran's top negotiator, said Hormuz stays closed until Iran's seven conditions, based on the Islamabad memorandum, are met. He said the US had sent "some proposals through a mediator". https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/4/iran-says-strait-of-hormuz-to-remain-closed-until-us-meets-conditions - [2026-10-05/07] Pezeshkian called negotiations "futile" on 5 October. Araghchi said on 4 October that negotiations based on justice could still end the conflict. Vance called for a "meaningful" cut in enrichment, which analysts read as a possible softening. Rubio said Iran had lost control of the strait. A tanker was hit by a projectile on 6 October. Gulf oil flows excluding Iran reached more than 81% of pre-war levels in September, which may reduce US urgency. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/7/us-sets-new-demands-for-iran-deal-what-are-they - [2026-10-07 snapshot] Al Jazeera's navigation banner carried the headlines "Why have strikes resumed?" and "Did Iran capture a US submarine?". This suggests renewed military escalation, but I could not open the underlying articles. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/7/us-sets-new-demands-for-iran-deal-what-are-they - [2026-10-15] A Juan Cole piece (dated today in the snippet) says the two sides disagree on sequencing, nuclear first versus maritime security first. It says Qatar is the intermediary. I did not read it in full. https://juancole.com/2026/10/americas-promises-dangerous.html - Scheduled: I found no dated talks round or deadline before 2 November. The midterms are on 3 November, after the 2 November agreement cutoff. Araghchi told UNGA attendees that a quick deal would help Trump ahead of the midterms. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/iran-has-suggested-a-deal-to-reopen-the-strait-of-hormuz-in-7-days BOTTOM LINE: As of 15 October there is no US–Iran Hormuz agreement. Talks are indirect, through Qatar, and stalled over sequencing and Iranian preconditions. The US rejected Iran's 7-day plan in late September, and there are signs of renewed strikes. Both sides have said they still want a deal, there is midterm pressure on Trump, and the earlier MOU shows a quick announcement is possible. The criteria also require both the US and Iran to announce acceptance of the same agreement. NOT FOUND: Any news dated 8–15 October (apart from the Cole piece) confirming the current state of talks or strikes. Any scheduled negotiating round or deadline before 2 November. Details of the "strikes resumed" and "US submarine" items. Any official US or Iranian statement of acceptance of a new deal.

- [2026-04-08] The first US-Iran deal tied to Hormuz came within about 40 days of the war starting. The conflict began with US-Israeli attacks at the end of February, and a two-week ceasefire followed in April on condition that Iran reopen the strait. It was announced by Trump and accepted by Araghchi, and talks in Islamabad later failed. https://www.newsonair.gov.in/us-iran-agree-for-two-week-ceasefire-with-safe-passage-through-strait-of-hormuz - [2026-06-17] A US-Iran memorandum of understanding was announced, with a 60-day ceasefire and reopening of the strait, and was slated for signing in Geneva on June 19. CSIS reported it; the details were unclear. Al Jazeera says the MoU "briefly eased the conflict before breaking down". This precedent shows that qualifying announcements do happen, but it was the only one in about 8 months. https://www.csis.org/analysis/united-states-and-iran-announce-deal-end-war-state-play - [2026-08-05] A "close to a deal" episode failed to produce an announcement. Axios reported a US-Iran-Oman interim deal with Iranian leadership signoff and a US target of a Wednesday announcement. Iran kept denying direct talks and framed the arrangement as Iran-Oman only, and no US-Iran agreement appears to have followed. The Polymarket "by Aug 31" market was about 20% on about Aug 3 and about 28-30% on Aug 9. So official "imminent" signals have repeatedly overstated the chance. https://www.axios.com/2026/08/05/us-iran-strait-of-hormuz-deal-nears - [2026-07-14] The MoU collapsed. Fighting resumed on 8 July and the US blockade was reinstated on 14 July. Roughly 3.5 weeks passed from the June 17 deal to its collapse. https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-us-trump-strait-of-hormuz-deal/ - [2026-10-04] Iran's top negotiator said the strait stays closed until the US accepts Iran's seven conditions, which build on the Islamabad memorandum. Trump had rejected Iran's late-September UNGA proposal, which offered reopening within 7 days in exchange for lifting the blockade and oil sanctions and a ceasefire including Lebanon. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/4/iran-says-strait-of-hormuz-to-remain-closed-until-us-meets-conditions - [2026-10-07] Positions remain far apart. Pezeshkian called talks "futile", and Vance and Rubio set nuclear-enrichment demands. Analysts say the sticking points are sequencing, the blockade, sanctions and frozen assets. Gulf oil flows were above 81% of pre-war levels in September, which could ease US pressure to deal. Experts note a deal before the midterms could help Trump. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/7/us-sets-new-demands-for-iran-deal-what-are-they - [2026-10-12] Indirect talks continue via Qatar. Rezaei called the US response to the seven conditions "insufficient" and said Iran is "no longer in the process of responding". Trump said on Thursday (Oct 8) that there would be no new US strikes before the Nov 3 midterms and that "productive discussions" are under way. Reuters-sourced reporting says the two sides have yet to reach an agreement, and the Pentagon has prepared strike options. https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/434450 - [2026-10-14] A Polymarket daily report priced the "US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by Oct 15" market at Yes 1%. https://rg.org/news/prediction-markets/polymarket-daily-romania-prime-minister-israel-likud-fed-hike-october-14-2026 - [2026-10-12] This contract's sibling market on Polymarket showed No Hormuz Agreement at about 83%, D Senate agreement about 10% and R Senate agreement about 7%, on $93k volume. Implied YES for the agreement is about 17%. The page itself cites "recent tensions" and IRGC attacks as reasons, and its text mentions an Oct 23 deadline, which conflicts with the Nov 2 deadline in the rules. https://polymarket.com/event/who-wins-the-senate-pending-hormuz-agreement-before-the-midterms/hormuz-agreement-by-nov-2-and-the-republicans-win-the-senate - [2026-10-14] Related Polymarket pricing, per a secondary source: an Iran-Oman agreement by Nov 30 fell to 25% from 50% a week earlier, and normal Hormuz traffic by end-November is at 7%. There have been more than 12 strikes on shipping since late September. https://scanx.trade/stock-market-news/global/supertanker-2-5-million-barrel-capacity-fire-near-oman/52429362 - [2026-09-29] A Polymarket market on the US announcing an end to the Iran blockade priced a Mar 31, 2027 deadline at 74.5% (thin volume). That suggests traders see a settlement as likely only over many months. https://cryptonews.com/news/iran-war-polymarket-odds-blockade-end/ - [2026-08-09] Earlier Polymarket windows for "US-Iran Hormuz Agreement" expired unmet (Aug 15 and Aug 31). Earlier in the summer, a Dec 31 deadline was priced around 32% and a Nov 30 deadline around 24%. https://vinnews.com/2026/08/09/polymarket-odds-fall-to-about-30-for-u-s-iran-strait-of-hormuz-shipping-agreement-by-aug-31/ BOTTOM LINE: The reference class is one qualifying deal in about 8 months of war (April and June, both short-lived), plus repeated "imminent deal" claims that expired unmet (August). Positions are still far apart as of mid-October, with about 2.5 weeks left. The outside view favours No, with a modest tail risk from a pre-midterm Trump push. The resolution also requires explicit acceptance announcements from both the US and Iran, and Iran has often denied direct talks, which makes qualification harder. NOT FOUND: Any expert or polling estimate of a deal before November. Reliable resolution-source text beyond the question's own wording. Any report of a US-Iran agreement announced between Oct 12 and Oct 15. A confirmed explanation of the Oct 23 deadline on the sibling market page.

YES means: no US–Iran Hormuz agreement is announced by Nov 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The contract then resolves "No Hormuz Agreement". - [2026-10-14] The Hormuz attack tempo is at a wartime high. Kpler counted 10 tankers struck from Sept 28 to Oct 4. UKMTO logged 15 more attacks from Oct 6 to 14, 11 of them in the last four days. An Iranian official told Reuters Tehran changed its tactics about 10 days ago, partly to influence the US midterms. Iran also deployed new naval units east of the strait. Escalation by Iran, not preparation for a signing, is the pattern. https://aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/14/iran-steps-up-hormuz-surveillance-attacks-soar-oil-flows-crash-again - [2026-10-14] Iran says the US response accepted only some of its seven conditions and was "insufficient", and that a deal comes only when all are met. A York University analyst says the Trump administration has not moved to engage further and has not sought more help from Qatar or Pakistan. The US side is not visibly pushing to close. Same Al Jazeera URL as above. - [2026-10-12] Baghaei said Iran is still "reviewing" the US response and will reply through mediators when done, with no timetable. He added that Iran's preconditions must be met before any negotiations. The Iranian reply, then any US answer, then agreed text, then both sides' announcements would all have to fit into about 3 weeks. https://www.nation.com.pk/12-Oct-2026/iran-says-reviewing-us-proposals-talks-indirect-messages-continue - [2026-10-12] The core dispute is about order. The US wants the nuclear programme addressed from the outset. Iran wants talks to start with Hormuz and says its reply is a "seven-day plan". Reuters-sourced accounts say the process has stalled. https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/world/2026/10/12/iran-says-will-reply-us-response-hormuz-proposal-once-review-over/92214365007/ - [2026-10-12] A neutral summary of the latest public account says it "does not announce an agreement". It says a breakthrough would need confirmed terms, not just continued message exchange. https://paktribune.com/iran-reviews-us-response-on-hormuz-as-pakistan-and-qatar-continue-mediation/ - [2026-10-04] Iran's reply via Qatar effectively ruled out resuming nuclear talks. Baghaei demanded an end to obstacles to Iranian shipping, removal of all sanctions, including recent ones, and an end to military interventions. This runs against the US's insistence on nuclear terms. https://report.az/en/amp/region/mfa-iran-responds-to-us-proposal-through-qatar - [2026-10-08] Trump's "no strikes before Nov 3" pledge came with a statement that the blockade stays in "full force". He cited record Hormuz oil flows with none from or to Iran, and a White House official said the US is in a "very strong position". This is a patient, pressure-based posture, which reduces the US need to concede before the election. Reports say Pentagon planners are still preparing post-election options. https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/6136781-trump-vows-no-iran-attack/ - [2026-10-08] Trump said envoy Witkoff is "doing very well" but indicated that an agreement is not his preferred outcome. https://www.dawn.com/news/2035790 (from a search snippet; the page returned 403 on fetch) - [2026-10-09/12] The IRGC struck tankers on Oct 9 and 12, claiming a third strike in two days. It threatened to pursue "violating" ships beyond the strait and to target the vessels of companies it says cooperate with the US. It also called the US blockade "maritime piracy". Iranian forces are publicly committed to enforcing a closure regime, which the Hormuz-focused mechanics of any deal would have to reverse within days. https://www.euronews.com/2026/10/09/irans-irgc-strikes-tanker-and-threatens-to-target-vessels-beyond-hormuz ; https://iranwire.com/en/news/158801-irgc-targets-third-tanker-in-strait-of-hormuz-warns-us-allies/ - [2026-08-18] Precedent: Trump's "no talks underway or scheduled" post came one day after he claimed an IRGC back-channel. The IRGC denied it. Trump and Iran statements have repeatedly contradicted each other. https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/18/world/live-news/iran-war-trump - [2026-10-04] The criteria require a declarative acceptance of the same agreement from both the US and Iran. Iran says the US counterproposal tracks earlier US positions on denuclearisation. That makes a joint "accepted" announcement hard even if a partial understanding forms. https://www.foxnews.com/live-news/us-iran-war-hormuz-strait-peace-talks-donald-trump-october-4 BOTTOM LINE: The best case for No Agreement is that the sides are far apart on sequencing, Iranian attacks on shipping are at record levels, the US is content to wait under the blockade, and the Nov 2 cutoff leaves about 18 days. A YES resolution needs only inaction, so it is the default path. NOT FOUND: Any statement dated Oct 13–15 of a scheduled negotiating round or a deadline before Nov 2. The content of the "strikes resumed" and "US submarine" articles. Any fetched primary text (the Dawn page returned 403).

YES means: no US–Iran Hormuz agreement is announced by 2 Nov 2026, 11:59 PM ET, so the market resolves "No Hormuz Agreement". The question is read literally, and this report argues only for that side. - [2026-10-15] The shipping war is escalating. CNN reports two cargo ships sank within 24 hours, including the container ship GFS Pride on 13 Oct. Nine attacks near the strait were reported since Monday. About 4.15m barrels transited on Monday, under a quarter of pre-war levels. CNN says Iran is escalating partly to regain leverage as the midterms approach. https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/15/middleeast/strait-of-hormuz-ships-sunk-iran-intl-hnk - [2026-10-14] Al Jazeera cites UKMTO as recording 15 attacks between 6 and 14 Oct, 11 of them in the last four days. Kpler counted 10 tankers struck between 28 Sep and 4 Oct. An Iranian official told Reuters that Iran changed its attack tactics about 10 days ago, partly to influence the US midterms. Intent to pressure the US is the opposite of the intent to conclude a deal. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/14/iran-steps-up-hormuz-surveillance-attacks-soar-oil-flows-crash-again - [2026-10-14] Iran says the US accepted only some of its seven conditions and that the US reply was "insufficient". Iran insists a deal comes only when all its demands are met. A York University analyst says the Trump administration has not moved to engage with continued negotiations and has not sought help from Qatar or Pakistan. This is the mechanism for a stall: neither side is currently asking mediators for a new round. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/14/iran-steps-up-hormuz-surveillance-attacks-soar-oil-flows-crash-again - [2026-09-30] Reuters, via Jordan News, reports the disagreement is over the sequence of steps in the 7-day plan rather than its components. That plan would return the sides to an "enhanced" version of the June MOU. A sequencing dispute between a "nuclear first" US and a "blockade first" Iran is hard to fix quickly. Both sides also dislike signing first. https://www.jordannews.jo/Section-111/All/Araghchi-Receives-US-Response-to-Seven-Day-Proposal-56755 - [2026-09-30] US officials say Trump told closed-door meetings he expects bombing to resume after the midterms. They say he questioned whether Iran would comply, and that his reluctance to resume large-scale fighting is partly about preserving dwindling munitions. This points to a "wait out the election" posture rather than a pre-election deal. https://www.jordannews.jo/Section-111/All/Araghchi-Receives-US-Response-to-Seven-Day-Proposal-56755 - [2026-09-30] An Axios source on the Qatari two-page compromise said "It is stuck." The source said Iran asks for things the US cannot accept, and that the US thinks it is winning, so it sees no need to compromise. https://www.ynetnews.com/article/r1tq11e9cgl - [2026-10-08] Trump's pledge of no strikes before 3 Nov is a statement of intent, not a ceasefire or deal. Gulf News stresses that "productive discussions" does not mean an agreement has been reached. It also notes that Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal while Tehran reviews the US counterproposal. https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/trump-productive-talks-with-iran-underway-hormuz-in-focus-1.500703936 - [2026-10-04] The US counterproposal "largely tracks" earlier US denuclearization positions, according to Iran. Fox reports Iran wants Hormuz as the immediate focus while the US keeps the nuclear issue central. The two sides disagree on what the agreement is about, so a Hormuz-only deal is hard. https://www.foxnews.com/live-news/us-iran-war-hormuz-strait-peace-talks-donald-trump-october-4 - [2026-10-06] CNBC says the rebound in Gulf oil exports depends on a US military commitment, with nearly 20 ships attacked in a month. It calls the rebound possibly unsustainable without a settlement. Before the latest attacks, Trump could claim "we have total control" and have 29 ships transit, which lowered his urgency. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/06/crude-oil-tanker-strait-hormuz-iran-attack.html - [2026-10-08, resolution technicality] The criteria require declarative acceptance of the same agreement by both the US and Iran. Qatari shuttle diplomacy usually produces claims such as "productive talks", "counterproposal received" or "insufficient". Under the criteria, all of these are non-qualifying. The Aug 4 episode shows why this filter matters: Qatar said drafts were "in very progressive stages" with no final agreement. Iran called the track Iran–Oman only, and Trump said on 18 Aug that no talks were scheduled. https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/04/world/live-news/iran-war-trump - [2026-10-15, deadline arithmetic] The cutoff is 2 Nov 11:59 PM ET, which leaves 18 days. I found no scheduled round, summit or deadline in that window. A Qatari reply cycle took about 2 days at the end of September (Sep 29 to Oct 1). The only reported text is still a draft sequencing dispute, and Iran says it is "no longer responding" (Oct 12, from the colleague report). https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/14/iran-steps-up-hormuz-surveillance-attacks-soar-oil-flows-crash-again BOTTOM LINE: With 18 days left, no scheduled talks, record attacks on shipping and Iran escalating deliberately, status quo inertia points to No. Trump's reported plan to wait out the midterms and the double-announcement requirement add further hurdles. The main tail risk is a sudden Trump–Iran announcement like the June MOU. NOT FOUND: Any scheduled round or deadline before 2 Nov. Any US or Iranian statement of acceptance of a new deal. Details of the "strikes resumed" and "US submarine" items. Any report after 12 Oct that talks have resumed.