Will Oregon's employment in Semiconductor and Other Electronic Component Manufacturing for December 2026 be above 26,400 jobs?

- [2026-10-15] BLS series SMU41000003133440001 (Oregon NAICS 3344, NSA, thousands) is shown on the BLS page, extracted 2026-10-15 01:25. It reads: Jan 2026 25.9, Feb 25.5, Mar 25.4, Apr 25.3, May 25.3, Jun 25.4, Jul 25.4, Aug 25.4 (P). September is not yet shown. https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/SMU41000003133440001 - [2026-10-15] The same BLS page shows the 2025 path after the benchmark. Aug 2025 28.5, Sep 26.9, Oct 26.4, Nov 26.3, Dec 2025 26.4. So the threshold (26.4) equals the Dec 2025 value, and the latest print (25.4) is 1.0k below it. The 2024 comparison: Dec 2024 31.4, which fell sharply from 33.0 in Oct. https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/SMU41000003133440001 - [2026-01-28] FRED's earlier vintage, before the benchmark, showed Dec 2025 at 29.1 (Sep 29.5, Oct 29.1). The current BLS page shows 26.4 for Dec 2025, so the 2026 benchmark cut about 2.7k from the 2025 level. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SMU41000003133440001 - [2026-10-14] Oregon's September jobs report: seasonally adjusted total nonfarm +5,800. Manufacturing is down 4,300 (-2.4%) over 12 months, but added 1,700 jobs since July . The Oregon Employment Department economist described manufacturing as levelling out. Sector-level only; no 3344 detail. https://ktvz.com/news/2026/10/14/oregon-unemployment-rate-holds-steady-at-5-0-amid-modest-job-gains/ - [2026-10-14] Total Oregon manufacturing hit its recent trough in July at 171,400 jobs and has since grown to 173,100 . Seasonally adjusted figures, all manufacturing. https://www.opb.org/article/2026/10/14/oregon-unemployment-data-september-2026/ - [2026-10-14] This release incorporated January–March 2026 tax records data into the Official Oregon Series. The state also publishes the BLS original series separately. https://cascadebusnews.com/oregons-unemployment-rate-was-5-0-in-september/ - [2026-09-16] Oregon's August release: manufacturing was -6,800 jobs (-3.8%) year over year, the largest loss , and -3,100 since March . https://www.oregon.gov/employ/NewsAndMedia/Documents/2026-09-16-UnemploymentRateAugust.pdf - [2026-10-14] Scheduled releases: Oregon county/metro September data on Oct 20; October statewide data on Nov 18 . BLS state release for October is Nov 20, 2026, and for November is Dec 18, 2026. December 2026 data would come in January 2027. The benchmarked value would come with the March 2027 benchmark release. I could not confirm the exact date. https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/laus.htm - [2026-07] Intel Oregon layoffs: reports say about 2,400 Oregon positions were cut in July 2026, with notice given June 15 and last day July 15. This is a forum thread citing OregonLive, so treat it as unconfirmed. https://www.thelayoff.com/t/1kj7th4ma - [2025 background] Intel cut about 2,392 Oregon workers in July 2025, and a further 669 later in 2025. Its Oregon headcount fell to roughly 16,000, the lowest since 2012. This is the backdrop for the 2025 NAICS 3344 drop. https://www.calcalistech.com/ctechnews/article/b1jcmzwxwg - [2026-10] 2025 QCEW annual average for NAICS 3344 in Oregon was 28,338. The state projects 2% growth for the industry. This is a different survey and not the resolution series. https://www.qualityinfo.org/-/oregon-high-tech-employment-grew-over-the-decade-despite-recent-manufacturing-declines BOTTOM LINE: The resolution series has been flat at 25.3–25.4k since March 2026 and is about 1.0k below the 26.4k threshold. Exactly 26.4 resolves No. Dec 2026 needs a rise of at least 1.1k from the current level, or an upward benchmark revision, to resolve Yes. The October 2025–December 2025 level is itself 26.3–26.4k, so the threshold sits at last December's value. Statewide manufacturing is stabilising, but there is no sign of a 3344-specific rebound. NOT FOUND: September 2026 value for the series (not yet on the BLS page as of the extraction). The exact date of the March 2027 benchmark release. Any Oregon-specific semiconductor hiring or layoff news from the last 14 days. Kalshi sibling strikes.

- [2026-10-15] BLS series SMU41000003133440001 (NSA, thousands) reads 25.4 for Aug 2026 (preliminary), 25.4 for Jul and Jun, 25.3 for May and Apr, 25.4 for Mar, 25.5 for Feb and 25.9 for Jan. The threshold of 26.4 is about 1.0k (about 4%) above the latest print, and the contract needs a value of at least 26.5. The Sept 2026 value is not yet in my data; the BLS state release is likely later in October. https://api.bls.gov/publicAPI/v2/timeseries/data/SMU41000003133440001?startyear=2023&endyear=2026 - [2026-10-15] The same series for 2025 ran: Jan 29.6, Feb 30.8, Mar 29.2, Apr 28.9, Jun 29.0, Jul 28.9, Aug 28.5, Sep 26.9, Oct 26.4, Nov 26.3, Dec 26.4. The 26.4 threshold equals the Dec 2025 value, so the question asks whether Dec 2026 will exceed Dec 2025. It has been below that level every month of 2026. https://api.bls.gov/publicAPI/v2/timeseries/data/SMU41000003133440001?startyear=2023&endyear=2026 - [2026-10-15] Reference class, August to December change in the same series: 2023 was 33.6 to 33.0 (-0.6); 2024 was 33.5 to 31.4 (-2.1); 2025 was 28.5 to 26.4 (-2.1). Dec 2023 was 33.0 and Dec 2024 was 31.4, so Dec has fallen year over year for at least two straight years. In none of 2023–2025 did Aug-to-Dec rise. Monthly moves in 2026 have been within ±0.1k apart from the Jan–Feb drop of about 0.4k. https://api.bls.gov/publicAPI/v2/timeseries/data/SMU41000003133440001?startyear=2023&endyear=2026 - [2026-09-16] Oregon Employment Department (OED) official series, incorporating Q1 2026 QCEW: semiconductor and electronic component manufacturing was 25,600 in Aug 2026 and Jul 2026, against 28,500 in Aug 2025 (-2,900 year over year). OED's official series differs slightly from the BLS series (25.6k vs 25.4k). The contract resolves on the BLS series, after the annual benchmark. https://www.oregon.gov/employ/NewsAndMedia/Documents/2026-09-16-UnemploymentRateAugust.pdf - [2026-09-16] Oregon manufacturing in total was 174,700 in Aug 2026 (-6,700 year over year). The OED release says manufacturing lost 3,100 jobs from March to August 2026. Overall state payrolls were described as stabilizing. https://www.oregon.gov/employ/NewsAndMedia/Documents/2026-09-16-UnemploymentRateAugust.pdf - [2026-10-14] The OED Sept release says manufacturing added 1,700 jobs since July, "partially reversing steady declines during the past three years" (seasonally adjusted, total manufacturing). Statewide, manufacturing was down 4,300 jobs (-2.4%) over 12 months, a smaller decline than the -6,800 reported for August. This is the only recent upturn signal, and it is not specific to semiconductors. https://1059thebrew.iheart.com/content/2026-10-14-oregon-adds-5800-jobs/ - [2026-10-14] OED's next statewide release, for October data, is scheduled for Nov 18, 2026. The county and metro release for September is due Oct 20. https://ktvz.com/news/2026/10/14/oregon-unemployment-rate-holds-steady-at-5-0-amid-modest-job-gains/ - [2025-11-13] Intel cut 529 Oregon jobs in July 2025, 669 more starting Sept 2025 and 1,300 in late 2024. This is the main driver of the 2024–25 decline in the series. https://www.koin.com/news/oregon/intel-laying-off-hundreds-of-employees-in-oregon/ - [2026-08-27] Intel contractor Amentum is laying off 74 workers in Hillsboro, effective around Oct 19, as an Intel contract expires. This is a small further reduction around Intel's Hillsboro sites and hints at continued reductions rather than a rebound. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/intel-partner-loses-contract-lay-175929386.html - [2026-06-30] QualityInfo reports 2025 average employment in NAICS 3344 of about 28,300 (QCEW basis). It projects only 2% long-run growth for the industry. Oregon high-tech manufacturing lost 1,600 jobs from 2015 to 2025. The annual-average QCEW level is far above the current monthly CES level, and the benchmark revision could shift levels. https://www.qualityinfo.org/-/oregon-high-tech-employment-grew-over-the-decade-despite-recent-manufacturing-declines - [2026-10-15] Benchmark risk: the contract uses the value published after the annual benchmark (March 2027). Past benchmarks have moved this series in both directions. Q1 2026 QCEW has already been folded in, and OED's series sits about 0.2k above BLS's. I found no published benchmark preview for this specific industry. https://www.oregon.gov/employ/NewsAndMedia/Documents/2026-09-16-UnemploymentRateAugust.pdf BOTTOM LINE: The outside view favors No. The series has sat near 25.3–25.5k all year, about 1.0k below the threshold. Dec has been below Aug in each of the last three years, and rises of 1k or more in four months are rare outside of benchmark revisions. The main paths to Yes are a benchmark upward revision or a manufacturing rebound, and I found no direct evidence of either. NOT FOUND: the BLS Sept 2026 value for this series; any published forecast, poll or market estimate of Dec 2026 employment; a preview of the 2027 benchmark revision for NAICS 3344 in Oregon; the full historical record of how often a similar +1.0k four-month rise has occurred.

YES means: BLS series SMU41000003133440001 (Oregon NAICS 3344, NSA) is published at 26.5 or higher for December 2026 after the annual benchmark. Exactly 26.4 resolves No. I found no hard evidence of a rebound in this series. The Yes case rests on three mechanisms: a benchmark revision, a manufacturing upturn, and flows linked to Intel's capital spending. - [2026-10-14] The September release says Oregon manufacturing "levelled out" and has had "a couple of months of gains". The economist said these gains have helped lift private-sector job growth. Total manufacturing rose from the July trough of 171,400 to 173,100. The OPB article reports it as a trend turn, not a one-off. Path to Yes: this rise carries into 3344 and builds from 25.4k to at least 26.5k by December. The page gives no 3344 detail. https://www.opb.org/article/2026/10/14/oregon-unemployment-data-september-2026/ - [2026-03-20] Business Oregon's CHIPS Report #3 says projects funded by Oregon CHIPS had created 913 jobs through June 2025, as companies "picked up the pace of hiring". Capital spending exceeded $5B. It records new positions created, not net employment, so it does not offset Intel's layoffs. It supports the view that new capacity is being staffed. https://www.oregon.gov/biz/Publications/OR_CHIPS_Report%203_March_2026.pdf - [2026-03-20] The same report says the US government became Intel's largest shareholder with an $8.9B investment announced in August 2025. It also says some Oregon CHIPS companies resumed talks on federal "CHIPS 2.0" money. This reduces the risk of further large Intel retrenchment, which was the main driver of the 2024–25 decline. It is not a hiring commitment. https://www.oregon.gov/biz/Publications/OR_CHIPS_Report%203_March_2026.pdf - [2026-03-20] The report lists a $115M Oregon CHIPS grant for Intel's D1X expansion and the MSB2 support building. The grant carries a job-creation target of 812. Other 3344-relevant projects are Microchip's Gresham expansion, aimed at tripling production, and Tokyo Ohka Kogyo's Hillsboro expansion. The Microchip and TOK items are small in headcount terms. https://www.oregon.gov/biz/Publications/OR_CHIPS_Report%203_March_2026.pdf - [2026-09/10] Job boards show many open Intel Hillsboro positions: ZipRecruiter lists 177 Oregon openings and Glassdoor 106 in Hillsboro, mostly Foundry process, yield and technician roles. These are advertised openings only, not hires, and some are contract roles. They suggest Intel Foundry is backfilling technology-development and fab roles even after the cuts. https://www.ziprecruiter.com/co/Intel/Jobs/--in-Oregon - [2026-07-14] NSF awarded Oregon State's FAST consortium up to $160M, with close to 100 partners including Intel. The award targets chip manufacturing, AI research and workforce. It is mainly a multi-year and R&D item, so it has little bearing on the December 2026 level. https://www.opb.org/article/2026/07/14/oregon-state-partners-receive-up-to-160-million-federal-grant-to-build-semiconductor-industry/ - [2026-06/07] A state report cited by KOIN estimates Intel's Oregon workforce at about 18,000 in November 2025, after the 2025 cuts. The colleague note about "2,400 cuts in July 2026" comes from a forum thread. It may be a re-dated report of the July 2025 filing of 2,392 cuts, which Notebookcheck and Manufacturing Dive covered. If so, the claim of fresh 2026 Intel layoffs is weaker than the colleague summary implies. https://www.koin.com/news/oregon/oregons-semiconductor-industry-could-become-irrelevant-state-report-warns/ - [2026-10-15] The BLS API call for the series came back truncated, so I could not re-verify the full history. The colleagues' figures are consistent with it where visible. The main Yes route is the benchmark. The 2026 benchmark cut about 2.7k from the 2025 level, so one more revision could move the series by more than 1k, and revisions can be upward. OED's own series for August 2026 is 25.6k, already 0.2k above BLS's 25.4k. That leaves the benchmark as a possible source of upside. Even so, the gap to 26.5 is 1.1k. https://api.bls.gov/publicAPI/v2/timeseries/data/SMU41000003133440001?startyear=2018&endyear=2026 BOTTOM LINE: The most likely Yes path combines a continued manufacturing recovery that reaches 3344 (Intel Foundry backfilling and CHIPS-funded expansions) with a favorable March 2027 benchmark revision, together adding at least 1.1k to the current 25.4k. Neither is evidenced for this series. The only sourced support is the sector-level upturn since July and the OED series sitting above BLS's. NOT FOUND: the September 2026 BLS value for the series; any 3344-specific hiring or layoff news from the last 14 days; any benchmark preview for Oregon NAICS 3344; a confirmed July 2026 Intel layoff in Oregon; a full readable BLS history (the API output was truncated).

YES means: BLS series SMU41000003133440001 (Oregon NAICS 3344, NSA) shows a December 2026 value of 26.5 thousand or higher after the annual benchmark. Exactly 26.4 resolves No. - [2026-10-15] BLS states that the September 2026 State Employment and Unemployment data come out on Oct 20, 2026. So the September print for this series is still unpublished. If it shows about 25.4, that is another month flat, with only Oct and Nov left to move before December. https://www.bls.gov/sae/ - [2026-10-15] BLS's "Next Release" box for the preliminary benchmark is blank (the 2027 date is not posted). The 2026 preliminary benchmark came out Aug 28, 2026, alongside Q1 2026 QCEW. A benchmark preview for March 2026 is already out, so the first-quarter 2026 level is already folded in. Level surprises for 2027 would have to come from Q2–Q4 2026 tax data. https://www.bls.gov/sae/ - [2026-08-15 (BLS state release for August)] BLS says benchmark year 2026 replaced CES estimates with census-derived counts for April 2025 to September 2026. For this series that means the level at 25.4k already rests on tax records through Q1 2026. Further upward correction would have to come from later quarters, with no evidence for it. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/laus.pdf - [2026-09-18] Intel's WARN filings recorded in Sept 2026 show only small cuts, all in Santa Clara. Intel's 2026 filings are 155 workers year to date. The Oregon filings are the 2025 ones (2,509 in Jul 2025 and 669 in Nov 2025). No new Oregon WARN filings were found, so no Oregon layoff shock is evident, but none points to a rebound either. https://warnact.io/company-intel - [2026-09 / 2026-10] Intel job listings in Oregon are mostly engineering, design, contract and support roles (177 listings in Sept). These are hard to turn into a 1.1k net production-payroll rise. Postings are not net hiring, and the listings can't separate in-scope NAICS 3344 jobs. https://www.ziprecruiter.com/co/Intel/Jobs/--in-Oregon - [2026-08-19] The OED's August 19 release reports July data "incorporating Jan–Mar 2026 tax records". It shows total Oregon payrolls dropping 4,100 in July. The tax-record–anchored level is already low, so mean reversion upward is not baked in. https://www.oregon.gov/employ/Documents/2026-08-19-employment-ore.pdf - [2026-05-20] OED's April release said manufacturing cut 400 jobs in April. Durable goods manufacturing, the category that contains 3344, was down 5,500 (-4.4%) over 12 months. The decline was broad and persistent through spring 2026. https://www.oregon.gov/employ/NewsAndMedia/Press%20Releases%20Archives/2026-05-20-Employment-in-Oregon-April-2026-press-release.pdf - [2026-10] The state projects only 2% long-run growth for NAICS 3344 (QualityInfo). Even that rate applied to 25.4k adds about 0.5k per year, short of the 1.1k needed. https://www.qualityinfo.org/-/oregon-high-tech-employment-grew-over-the-decade-despite-recent-manufacturing-declines - [2026-10-15] Resolution technicality: the value used is the December figure after the March 2027 benchmark. That figure is likely to be close to the preliminary benchmark-based path, and it must be strictly greater than 26.4. Rounding to one decimal makes 26.4 a No, so the Yes zone starts a full 0.1k above the Dec 2025 level. https://www.bls.gov/sae/ BOTTOM LINE: The status quo (flat at about 25.4k since March, with no Oregon layoff or hiring catalyst in the last month) leaves Yes needing a net +1.1k rise in the last three months of data, or an unforeseen upward benchmark revision. The Dec-below-Aug pattern in each of 2023–2025 and the exact-26.4-is-No rule both favor No. NOT FOUND: the September 2026 value for this series (due Oct 20); the March 2027 benchmark release date; any Oregon 3344-specific hiring or fab-ramp announcement; any forecast of the 2027 benchmark revision for this series.