Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?

- [2026-09-23] Morocco held legislative elections. Provisional results: PAM 97 seats, RNI 66 (down 36), Istiqlal 65, PJD 54. Turnout was about 38%. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Moroccan_general_election - [2026-09-24] Akhannouch, described as the outgoing head of government, congratulated PAM and said RNI respects the voters' will. https://en.hespress.com/145938-%F0%9F%94%B4morocco-election-2026-pjd-says-its-leading-in-several-constituencies-live-tracker.html - [2026-09-29] King Mohammed VI appointed PAM coordinator Fatima Ezzahra El Mansouri as Head of Government and tasked her with forming a government under Article 47. This is the key event for resolution. https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2026/09/340090/king-mohammed-vi-appoints-fatima-zahra-el-mansouri-as-moroccos-first-ever-female-head-of-government/ - [2026-09-29] Reuters, via CNN, also reported the appointment and the instruction to form a government. https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/29/africa/morocco-woman-prime-minister-intl-latam - [2026-10-12] PAM, Istiqlal, USFP and PPS agreed on a governing majority. They will now propose ministerial candidates. https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2026/10/341786/moroccos-new-government-majority-to-include-pam-istiqlal-usfp-pps/ - [2026-10-13] The Rio Times, citing Moroccan reports, said the cabinet list and royal audience date were not yet official. It said Akhannouch's outgoing team handles current affairs until the cabinet is named. https://www.riotimesonline.com/morocco-politics-key-players-2026/ - [2026-10-15] Wikipedia infoboxes are inconsistent. The English page still lists Akhannouch as incumbent, with El Mansouri as "designate". The Simple English page already gives his term as ending 29 September 2026. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aziz_Akhannouch - [2026-02-07] Akhannouch stepped down as RNI leader and Mohamed Chaouki succeeded him. Akhannouch did not stand for a seat in the 2026 election. https://www.euronews.com/2026/09/23/morocco-votes-for-new-parliament-amid-hopes-and-concerns-over-cost-of-living - Resolution reading: the market resolves Yes on an announced removal or resignation, even if it takes effect later. The 29 September appointment of a successor arguably already counts as an announced removal. A strict reading would instead require the new cabinet to be sworn in, which looks likely within days to weeks. BOTTOM LINE: Akhannouch's replacement has already been named, and the formal handover is pending the cabinet appointment. A strict reading of the resolution criteria looks very likely to resolve Yes before 31 December 2026, and a looser reading may already have triggered it. The main uncertainty is how the resolver treats the interim period between the 29 September appointment and the new cabinet. NOT FOUND: An official announcement of the new cabinet, or a date for the royal audience. Also the date Akhannouch's government formally ceases office. The Polymarket resolution page itself, which I did not look for.

- [2026-09-29] King Mohammed VI named Fatima Ezzahra El Mansouri (PAM) as prime minister and tasked her with forming a new government. This was four days after the election results. Al Jazeera, AP/PBS, Reuters/CNN and Wikipedia all report it. Wikipedia lists her as "Assumed office 29 September 2026", with Akhannouch as predecessor. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/29/truly-historic-moroccos-king-appoints-first-woman-prime-minister - [2026-09-29] Wikipedia's Akhannouch infobox still says "Incumbent" but names El Mansouri as "designate". The simple-English page says his term ended 29 September 2026. The sources conflict on whether Akhannouch is still formally in office. Constitutionally, the outgoing government likely stays as caretaker until the new cabinet is appointed. I could not confirm this. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aziz_Akhannouch - [2026-09-24] Provisional results: PAM 97 seats, RNI 66, Istiqlal 65, PJD 54, on 38% turnout. Under Article 47 the king appoints the head of government from the party with the most seats. https://www.newarab.com/news/moroccos-centre-right-pam-secures-most-seats-election-provisional-results - [2026-09-29] PAM is 101 seats short of a majority (198 needed) and must build a coalition. PJD and the Federation of Democratic Left say they will stay in opposition. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/29/truly-historic-moroccos-king-appoints-first-woman-prime-minister - [2026-09-25] The Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) says coalition agreements are not customary in Morocco and the palace wants a government quickly. It expects formation to finish by the end of October at the latest. https://www.kas.de/en/country-reports/detail/-/content/parliamentary-elections-in-morocco - [2026-02-07] Akhannouch gave up RNI leadership; Mohamed Chaouki succeeded him. On 11 January he said he would not run in the 2026 elections. That rules out his return as PM. https://en.hespress.com/129196-akhannouch-says-he-will-not-run-in-moroccos-2026-elections.html - [2026-02-07] Wikipedia's RNI page says the party was in government from September 2021 "until its defeat in September 2026". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Rally_of_Independents - Base rate (historical): Morocco's PM has changed after elections (2021) or by royal dismissal (Benkirane, 2017). After the 2021 election the king appointed Akhannouch on 10 September and the cabinet took office on 7 October, about four weeks later. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Minister_of_Morocco - Resolution implication: the rules say an announcement of removal or replacement before the end date resolves the market Yes. The royal appointment of a successor on 2026-09-29 is arguably such an announcement. Whether this market's resolver counts it is unclear. The market may already be effectively resolved, or it may wait for the new cabinet to be sworn in. BOTTOM LINE: Akhannouch has been replaced as PM-designate by El Mansouri, and the new cabinet is expected by the end of October. Both the "announcement" clause and the formal handover therefore point to Yes well before 31 December, unless the resolver treats the 29 September appointment as not yet a removal and the cabinet formation stalls. NOT FOUND: a source confirming the date the new government was formally sworn in and Akhannouch's formal exit. Any current update on coalition talks after 1 October. Any other prediction-market or expert forecast for this question.

YES means: Aziz Akhannouch ceases to be Morocco's Prime Minister (or his resignation or removal is announced) between market creation and 31 December 2026. - [2026-10-14] The King received El Mansouri at the Rabat palace and was briefed on the formation process. Morocco World News says a government announcement is expected "in the coming days". The statement gave no ministry count or names. Source: https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2026/10/342094/king-mohammed-vi-receives-el-mansouri-on-government-formation/ - [2026-10-14] Médias24 reports the ministry split is finalised, subject to royal approval. PAM gets 8 portfolios, Istiqlal 6, USFP 4 and PPS 3, including Economy and Finance and Agriculture, both currently held by RNI. This is the most likely path to YES: the King signs the ministerial list. Source: https://medias24.com/2026/10/14/gouvernement-el-mansouri-qui-recupere-quels-ministeres-1778989 - [2026-10-14] Médias24 says the handover of powers should happen the same day as the royal appointment of ministers, or the next day at most. That is the mechanism that ends the caretaker status. The confidence vote comes later and isn't needed for the handover. Source: https://medias24.com/2026/10/14/gouvernement-el-mansouri-qui-recupere-quels-ministeres-1778989 - [2026-10-14] The same piece says the Oct 20 finance-bill deadline will probably slip by 4–5 days. The 2027 budget therefore puts pressure on the palace to name the cabinet within days. Source: https://medias24.com/2026/10/14/gouvernement-el-mansouri-qui-recupere-quels-ministeres-1778989 - [2026-10-14] Billionaires.Africa says Akhannouch is a caretaker only until her cabinet is appointed. It says RNI is excluded from the four-party majority, which holds 207 of 395 seats, nine above the 198 needed. With no route to a role in the next government, nothing short of a collapse of the deal could keep him in office. Source: https://www.billionaires.africa/2026/10/14/moroccan-billionaire-aziz-akhannouchs-party-left-out-of-moroccos-new-government/ - [2026-09-30] Billionaires.Africa framed the 29 September appointment as "ending" his five-year premiership. Credible reporting already describes him as leaving office, which supports an early "announcement of removal" reading under the rules. Source: https://www.billionaires.africa/2026/09/30/billionaire-aziz-akhannouch-to-leave-office-as-morocco-names-first-woman-prime-minister/ - [2026-10-15] Wikipedia's "Prime Minister of Morocco" page now shows El Mansouri as incumbent since 29 September 2026. Its Akhannouch page still lists him as incumbent. A resolver relying on that page could count the 29 September date as the end. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Minister_of_Morocco - [2026-10-13] The Rio Times reported Polymarket giving El Mansouri about 94% to become PM. It also reported a related bet putting Akhannouch's exit by 31 December near 90%. These are third-party snapshots, so they may be stale. Source: https://www.riotimesonline.com/morocco-el-mansouri-new-government-2026/ - [2026-10-09] Rio Times said the outgoing cabinet only handles current business until the King appoints a new one. That is a caretaker status, which supports "effectively removed". Source: https://www.riotimesonline.com/morocco-politics-key-players-2026/ - [2026-10-12] Hespress says the four parties will propose candidates and aim for a government programme "as soon as possible". They won 207 seats combined. Source: https://en.hespress.com/147184-mansouri-announces-four-party-coalition-to-form-moroccos-next-government.html BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES path is the King appointing El Mansouri's cabinet, which looks imminent. Médias24 says the handover follows within a day, which is about 11 weeks before the deadline. The 29 September appointment of a successor, and the 14 October report that he is a caretaker, would also support an earlier YES under the "announcement" clause. NOT FOUND: An official royal communiqué naming the cabinet, a handover date, or any sign the coalition is faltering. I also didn't find a Moroccan constitutional text that sets the caretaker term, and I did not look for the Polymarket rules page.

YES means: Akhannouch ceases to be Morocco's Prime Minister, or an announcement of his removal or resignation is made, by Dec 31, 2026. The question asks whether the "No" side has a path. It has only a narrow one, built on technicalities. - [2026-10-14] The 2011 Constitution (Art. 47) says a government terminated from office "expedites the current affairs" until a new government is constituted. Nothing in the text ends Akhannouch's office at the royal designation of 29 Sept. A literal reading is that he remains head of government, in caretaker mode, until the King appoints the new ministers. https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Morocco_2011 - [2026-10-14] Nothing the King did on 29 Sept dismissed Akhannouch or accepted a resignation. The palace only tasked El Mansouri with forming a government. Billionaires.Africa says on 14 Oct that he "is staying on in a caretaker role until her cabinet is appointed". A strict No-side reading therefore says no removal has been "announced", only a successor designated. https://www.billionaires.africa/2026/10/14/moroccan-billionaire-aziz-akhannouchs-party-left-out-of-moroccos-new-government/ - [2026-10-14] The outgoing government is still doing real work. Hespress says Akhannouch's 5 Aug budget guidelines drove the draft 2027 Finance Bill. The statutory deadline to submit it is 20 Oct, and the new majority's ministers have not yet been named. The Hespress piece calls him "outgoing Head of Government", so he is still acting in the role. https://en.hespress.com/147275-moroccos-2027-budget-faces-october-20-deadline-as-new-government-formation-accelerates.html - [2026-10-13] Rio Times says Akhannouch's ministers handle current business "until the new cabinet wins a confidence vote". That would push the end of his role past cabinet appointment to the Art. 88 investiture, which needs 198 of 395 votes. The four-party bloc holds 207 seats, a margin of nine, so a delay is conceivable but unlikely to be long. Other sources say the cabinet appointment is the trigger. https://riotimesonline.com/morocco-power-structure-explained-2026 - [2026-10-14] As of 14 Oct, no cabinet had been named. The King received El Mansouri that day for a progress report. No date has been set for the confidence vote. Ministerial posts and the government programme were still being negotiated. Rio Times links Polymarket's separate "next PM" contract, which resolves only on taking office and investiture, to this slower timeline. https://www.riotimesonline.com/morocco-history-explained-2026/ - [2026-10-14] Official and encyclopedic sources conflict. Wikipedia's Akhannouch infobox still reads "Incumbent... Assumed office 7 October 2021". Its Cabinet and Government of Morocco pages still list him as head. The "Prime Minister of Morocco" page already lists El Mansouri as incumbent since 29 Sept. A resolver who checks the infobox or the official government portal could see "no change" until the cabinet decree. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aziz_Akhannouch - [2026-10-14] The narrow No path needs a prolonged stall. The 2027 budget cycle, with a Parliament vote ahead of 31 Dec, raises the cost of a stall. Art. 50 allows spending by decree if the budget is late. The palace is also pressing for speed. In 2021 the gap from designation to cabinet was about four weeks. A stall beyond 31 Dec would require the coalition to collapse, or the King to reopen the designation. Nothing I found points to that. https://en.hespress.com/147275-moroccos-2027-budget-faces-october-20-deadline-as-new-government-formation-accelerates.html - [2026-10-14] Market context: Polymarket was quoted at 91.5% for Yes on 14 Oct, down from a reported 99% last trade earlier in the month. Rio Times, 13 Oct: about three points lower than a week earlier. The market was at 87% on 8 Oct. Traders were therefore pricing some chance of a No, probably from the resolver ambiguity. This is not evidence on the underlying outcome. https://www.riotimesonline.com/morocco-history-explained-2026/ - [2026-09-30] Billionaires.Africa framed the 29 Sept appointment as Akhannouch "to leave office"/"step aside" in future tense. That supports the No-side reading that the removal has not yet taken effect. The announcement-clause counter-argument is that the King's naming of a successor is itself the announcement. I found no source that says Akhannouch formally resigned. https://www.billionaires.africa/2026/09/30/billionaire-aziz-akhannouch-to-leave-office-as-morocco-names-first-woman-prime-minister/ BOTTOM LINE: The strongest No case is narrow. It needs a strict reading in which Akhannouch stays head of government until the cabinet or investiture, and then a stall past 31 Dec. Morocco's timeline and the 207-seat coalition make that stall unlikely, and the announcement clause weakens this reading further. NOT FOUND: An official cabinet list or royal appointment date. A confidence-vote date. A government or palace statement saying when Akhannouch's functions formally end. The Polymarket rules page's own wording on whether designation of a successor counts. Any reports of coalition collapse risk.