Will Rhode Island’s average residential electricity price for 2026 be above 29.5¢/kWh?

I could not read the EIA Table 5.6.B page directly. It returned an error on both fetch attempts. The year-to-date (YTD) figure for Rhode Island is therefore not confirmed. I only have monthly values from Table 5.6.A, republished by third-party sites. March 2026 comes from a secondary summary (quickelectricity.com) and is the least reliable. - [2026-09-24] EIA released July 2026 data, the latest Electric Power Monthly release. The next release, with August data, is due around the end of October 2026. Both sources are secondary. https://handyfigures.com/guides/electricity-rates-by-state/ - [2026-09-24] Rhode Island's residential price for July 2026 was 28.29¢/kWh, against 26.18¢ in July 2025 (+8.1%). These are preliminary estimates that EIA revises later. https://www.chooseenergy.com/electricity-rates-by-state/ - [2026-08-26] Rhode Island's June 2026 residential price was 29.23¢/kWh, against 26.84¢ a year earlier (+8.9%), ranking 6th highest. The US average was 18.34¢. https://wattdraw.com/electricity-rates/ (fetched) - [2026-08] Rhode Island's May 2026 residential price was 29.46¢/kWh, up 0.46¢ on May 2025, per a secondary site. https://ratewatt.com/rankings/electricity-rates-by-state-2026 - [2026-05] A secondary summary of EIA data puts March 2026 at 31.3¢/kWh. That is below March 2025 at 32.3¢ and March 2024 at 30.31¢. This suggests winter months run high, which would lift the YTD average above the summer months. Unverified. https://quickelectricity.com/cost-of-electricity-by-state/ - [2026-09-17] The year-to-date Table 5.6.B values exist for Rhode Island, but I could not retrieve them. Wattdraw notes that YTD and single-month values often differ materially. https://wattdraw.com/electricity-rates/ - [2026-09-24] Rhode Island Energy's default Last Resort Service (LRS) rate rose on Oct 1 to about 17.03¢/kWh for Oct 2026–Mar 2027. That is up from 14.77¢ last winter. The PUC approved it. https://www.wpri.com/money/rhode-island-energy-announces-winter-rate-hike-state-leaders-share-resources/ - [2026-09-24] The average residential customer's monthly bill rises $16.42 from Oct 1, net of company refunds. Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) cap-and-trade credits of $20.45 a month follow for Jan–Mar 2027. Credits and refunds may reduce EIA-measured revenue per kWh, depending on how the utility books them. https://rhodeislandcurrent.com/2026/09/24/ri-energy-bills-are-going-up-then-down-then-up-again-what-to-expect-starting-oct-1/ (search snippet; the page itself returned 403) - [2026-07-22] The RI Energy filing shows the LRS price by month for winter 2026–27. Monthly residential variable prices are not shown in the snippet. https://rhodeislandcurrent.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/26-27-EL-LRS-2026-Winter-Rates-RPUC-7-22-26.pdf - [2026-10-15] The December 2026 YTD value will not be published until about late February 2027 (December data). That is just before the market closes on 2027-02-28. Resolution timing is therefore tight, and any lag in EIA's schedule could matter. The release schedule is inferred from the roughly 25th-of-month, two-month-lag pattern. https://energyfactbook.com/electric-power-monthly/ BOTTOM LINE: Known monthly values, with May and June near 29.2–29.5¢ and July at 28.3¢, sit close to the 29.5¢ threshold. Winter months, such as March at roughly 31¢ per a secondary source, probably pull the YTD figure up. The Jan–Jun 2026 YTD value is the key number and I could not confirm it. Higher winter supply rates from Oct 1 push up, while RGGI credits and refunds may push down. NOT FOUND: Rhode Island's YTD residential value in Table 5.6.B through July 2026 (or any 2026 month). Also not found: EIA's 2025 annual Rhode Island residential average, and the exact Jan, Feb, Apr and Aug 2026 monthly values.

I could not load EIA Table 5.6.B itself, because the EIA page returned an error on both fetch attempts. The monthly figures below are from Geostellar's compilation of EIA data, so treat them as secondary. - [2026-10-15] **EIA 2026 YTD value not found.** Table 5.6.B for the January–December 2026 YTD period will not exist until the December data is published, around late February 2027. That is close to the 2027-02-28 trading close. https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_5_6_b - [2026-09-28] **RI monthly residential price, 2026 so far** (Geostellar, citing EIA; latest is July). Figures are in ¢/kWh. https://geostellar.com/energy/electricity-rates/rhode-island - Jan 30.14, Feb 29.45, Mar 29.91, Apr 28.30, May 29.46, Jun 29.23, Jul 28.29. - The simple mean of Jan–Jul is about 29.25. This is my own calculation, not an EIA figure. - A second page that republishes EIA data (usenergyindex.com) confirms June 2026 at 29.23, versus 26.84 in June 2025 (+8.9%). - [2026-09-28] **Same series for 2025.** The monthly figures run Jan 31.66, Feb 33.29, Mar 32.30, Apr 28.89, May 29.00, Jun 26.84, Jul 26.18, Aug 26.52, Sep 28.30, Oct 31.16, Nov 30.82, Dec 31.15. Their simple mean is about 29.68. https://geostellar.com/energy/electricity-rates/rhode-island - [2026-10-10] **EIA's published 2025 annual RI residential price was 29.46¢.** The source is worldpowermonitor.com, which states it uses EIA data. That is 2.8% above 2024. https://worldpowermonitor.com/us/prices/ - The sales-weighted annual figure came in about 0.2¢ below the simple monthly mean. This suggests high-sales summer months pull the weighted average down. - Applying the same adjustment to the 2026 months gives a Jan–Jul weighted level near 29.0–29.1. This is my estimate. - [2026-09-28] **Seasonal pattern.** Over 2001–2025, December was RI's most expensive month relative to its own year and July the cheapest. Winter months run high, with 30–31¢ in Oct–Dec 2025. The expected Aug–Sep 2026 prints are therefore low (about 27–29¢), and Oct–Dec carries the high-price tail. https://geostellar.com/energy/electricity-rates/rhode-island - [2026-07-22] **Rhode Island Energy winter supply rate.** Rhode Island Energy filed a Last Resort Service winter rate of 17.029¢/kWh for Oct 2026–Mar 2027. That compares with an 11.092¢ summer rate. https://ripuc.ri.gov/sites/g/files/xkgbur841/files/2026-07/26-27-EL%20-%20LRS%202026%20Winter%20Rates%20(R)(PUC%207-22-26).pdf - The prior winter rate was 14.77¢, so supply is up about 15% year on year. https://www.wpri.com/money/rhode-island-energy-announces-winter-rate-hike-state-leaders-share-resources/ - This pushes Q4 2026 prices up relative to Q4 2025, all else equal. - [2026-09-24] **Offsetting bill credits.** The PUC approved the seasonal rates and credits. The average residential bill rises a net $16.42 per month from Oct 1. https://rhodeislandcurrent.com/2026/09/24/ri-energy-bills-are-going-up-then-down-then-up-again-what-to-expect-starting-oct-1/ - A refund of $14.51 per month runs Oct 2026–Sep 2027, tied to the 2022 sale of the state's utility. https://pvdeye.org/ri-energy-new-rate-case/ - A further $20.45 per month discount applies in Jan–Mar 2027, which falls outside the 2026 calendar year. https://rhodeislandcurrent.com/2026/09/24/ri-energy-bills-are-going-up-then-down-then-up-again-what-to-expect-starting-oct-1/ - Whether EIA's revenue-per-kWh measure nets out these credits is unknown. If it does, Q4 2026 prices are dampened. - [2026-09-20] **Year-on-year trend.** RI residential was up about 8% year on year in June and July 2026 (June 29.23 vs 26.84; July 28.29 vs 26.18). The Jan–Apr months were roughly 6–11% below year-ago levels (Jan 30.14 vs 31.66, Feb 29.45 vs 33.29, Mar 29.91 vs 32.30, Apr 28.30 vs 28.89). The pattern flipped in May. https://usenergyindex.com/rankings/residential-electricity-price-by-state/ - [2026-10-15] **Rough outside-view projection** (my calculation, not a source). - Aug–Sep 2026 at +5–8% on 2025 would be about 28–28.6 and 29.7–30.5. - Oct–Dec 2026 would be about 29.5–32, depending on whether credits are netted out. - These give a full-year weighted figure of roughly 29.0–29.8, centred near 29.3–29.4, which is close to the 29.5 threshold. - [2026-10-15] **Reference class.** Annual RI residential EIA prices have been above 29.5¢ in 2025 only narrowly. The 2025 figure of 29.46 was just below the threshold. The 2024 figure implied by the +2.8% change is about 28.7. The RI all-in "average retail price" in the 2024 state profile was 24.15¢, but that covers all sectors. https://www.eia.gov/electricity/state/rhodeisland/ - Year-on-year changes of +2–9% are typical recently. The 29.5 strike is roughly the 2025 annual value, so the question is essentially whether 2026 is flat-to-higher than 2025. - [2026-10-15] **Third-party "current" rates cluster in the high 28s.** These are EIA-derived single months (28.29 for July) and are not annual. https://www.chooseenergy.com/electricity-rates-by-state/ BOTTOM LINE: Jan–Jul 2026 data (simple mean about 29.25; weighted likely about 29.1) sits slightly below 29.5. Q4 supply increases, partly offset by credits, decide whether the full year ends up above or below the threshold, so this is near a coin flip with a modest lean below. The 2025 annual of 29.46 is almost exactly the strike. NOT FOUND: the EIA Table 5.6.B page itself (error on fetch); EIA's August 2026 RI value (not yet seen in sources); EIA's official sales-weighted YTD figure through July; any published forecast, expert estimate or polling for RI's 2026 annual residential price (EIA STEO does not forecast by state); whether EIA revenue data nets out the utility-sale bill credits.

YES means: EIA's Table 5.6.B year-to-date figure for Rhode Island residential, January–December 2026, is above 29.5¢/kWh. - [2026-08-21] Most important YES mechanism: a Q4 2026 supply spike. The PUC approved distribution rates that add $44.1M of annual electric revenue (PPL 8-K). A new winter rate design lowers volumetric charges for residential customers, which could damp winter ¢/kWh. The same package carries about $170M of Hold Harmless credits, and the PUC says these will exceed the electric increase over twelve months. For YES, Q4 must print far above Q4 2025's roughly 31¢, with the credits not netted out of EIA revenue. Sources: https://whatsupnewp.com/2026/08/puc-cuts-rhode-island-energys-rate-request-approves-170-million-in-bill-credits/ (fetched); https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000922224/000092222426000048/ppl-20260827.htm - [2026-08-27] The PUC authorized a 9.275% return on equity and a 52% equity share. The base-rate increase is real, but about 22% smaller than the $77.3M the company asked for after its modifications. It does not push 2026 revenue above the strike by itself. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000922224/000092222426000048/ppl-20260827.htm - [2026-09-24] The net bill rise of $16.42 a month from Oct 1 is net of the refunds. The Oct–Dec 2026 refund is a lump of bill credits, and the RGGI credit starts only in Jan 2027. The Oct–Dec supply rate is about 15% above last winter's. If EIA records the refunds as separate or non-rate items, or books them in a different period, Q4 revenue per kWh would rise roughly in line with the supply increase. Q4 is a seasonal high (30.8–31.2¢ in late 2025, per the earlier report). A +5–8% year-on-year rise would put Q4 at about 32.5–33.5¢. https://time.news/energy-bills-are-going-up/ (14 days old, secondary; the Rhode Island Current original returned 403/unavailable) - [2026-10-01] Supply costs are rising for structural reasons. Rhode Island Energy's LRS price is a pass-through, about 42% of state consumption is served under LRS, and the PUC filing ties the increase to the wholesale electricity and gas markets. Rhode Island Current also reported the Iran War and ISO-NE requirements as drivers, and said "market-driven prices are forecasted to keep rising". This is a recent trend, not a one-off. Sources: https://rhodeislandcurrent.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/26-27-EL-LRS-2026-Winter-Rates-RPUC-7-22-26.pdf; https://www.rooftoppowerco.com/rhode-island-electric-rates-rising-15-percent-winter-2026/; https://rhodeislandcurrent.com/2026/07/23/rhode-island-energy-costs-are-soaring-so-are-political-tensions/ (search snippet only) - [2026-10-10] Sibling and relative evidence that the US-wide trend is up. The national residential price was +5.0% year on year in June 2026 (18.34¢). Rhode Island was +8.9% in June and +8.1% in July. The 2025 base is 29.46¢, so any full-year growth of 0.1% or more clears 29.5. Q4 would only need to carry about +0.04¢ of net upside on the year if the Jan–Jul weighted level is near 29.1 (the earlier report's estimate). Sources: https://energyfactbook.com/electric-power-monthly/; https://www.electricchoice.com/electricity-prices-by-state/ - [2026-10-15] The path to YES requires the following: 1. Aug and Sep print at or above their 2025 levels plus 5% (about 27.8 and 29.7). 2. Oct–Dec average at or above 31.5¢, with supply-driven growth showing through. 3. EIA revisions to Jan–Jul lean upward. EIA monthly figures are preliminary, and the Jan–Apr 2026 prints were below 2025 only because of one-offs in winter 2025. The shortfall to close is about 0.3–0.4¢ on the annual figure. That is roughly 1.2% of the annual price, and the Oct–Dec swing could exceed it. This is my calculation. Source: https://www.chooseenergy.com/electricity-rates-by-state/ - [2026-10-15] A caveat on the YES case. The EIA Table 5.6.B page was served as an error page at the time of fetch, and the page title shows the latest published YTD period was through May 2026 (published July 23). I could not read the YTD value for Rhode Island. https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_5_6_b BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES case is that Q4 2026 prints well above Q4 2025. Supply is up about 15% and the refunds may not reduce EIA's revenue measure much, so the full-year figure needs only a modest bump over 29.46¢. The main barrier is that the Hold Harmless credits, which the PUC says exceed the electric increase, could offset this. NOT FOUND: Rhode Island's YTD value in Table 5.6.B for any 2026 period. EIA's treatment of the Hold Harmless refunds in revenue. Rhode Island's August 2026 EIA print. The Rhode Island Current Sept 24 article body.

YES means: EIA's Table 5.6.B year-to-date (January–December 2026) Rhode Island residential average price comes in above 29.5¢/kWh. - [2026-10-07] EIA posted "Final 2025 Annual Electric Sales and Revenue Data" and the 2025 state historical spreadsheets on Oct 7. Revised 2025 figures are now final, and the earlier 29.46¢ 2025 annual figure may have moved. It was the only anchor near the strike. The 2026 monthly series is still preliminary and can be revised. I could not check whether the final 2025 RI value changed. https://www.eia.gov/reports/upcoming.php - [2026-10-15] Timing is not a strong NO route. EIA lists Electric Power Monthly for "the last week of the month", with dates that are approximate. The Aug 2026 data is due at the end of October. A late-February 2027 release of December data would land just before the Feb 28 close. A slip of a few days would leave the market without an EIA figure at close, which is a possible NO or ambiguous resolution. https://www.eia.gov/reports/upcoming.php - [2026-10-15] Latest secondary-site readings still show RI at 28.29¢ (July) as the "current" price. This is as of October 2026, because Aug and Sep data are not yet out. The 28.29 reading repeats across ChooseEnergy, PriceOfElectricity and ElectricityRates. https://www.priceofelectricity.com/electricity-cost/rhode-island - [2026-10-15] Arithmetic for NO, using the earlier Jan–Jul monthly values and my own approximations. Jan–Jul is about 29.1 weighted. Aug–Sep are seasonally low, probably 27–29. That puts Jan–Sep near 28.8–29.0. Q4 would then need to average roughly 31+ for the full year to exceed 29.5. Q4 2025 averaged about 31.0 per the Sept 28 monthly series. Q4 2026 would need to match or beat that, and Q4 sales carry lower weight than summer in the sales-weighted figure. Treat this as an estimate. It rests on secondary monthly data, not the unread Table 5.6.B. - [2026-08-31] Mechanism that pulls Q4 revenue per kWh down: a fixed credit of about $14.51 per month per electric customer runs Oct 2026–Sep 2027. It is spread uniformly across distribution accounts on bills rendered from October. For an average user of about 570 kWh a month, that is about 2.5¢/kWh. If EIA revenue is net of credits, this alone can offset most of the 15% supply increase. The PUC said credits over the next twelve months will exceed the entire allowed distribution increase. https://whatsupnewp.com/2026/08/puc-cuts-rhode-island-energys-rate-request-approves-170-million-in-bill-credits/ - [2026-08-28] The PUC rate case outcome limits upward distribution pressure. It granted one year of increases instead of two and no return-on-equity hike. It adopted a winter/non-winter distribution rate split, capping the gap at 1.5¢/kWh. The Sept 1 distribution increase is therefore modest and is largely offset by the credit starting Oct 1. https://upriseri.com/article/utility-credits-hit-ri-bills-starting-in-october - [2026-08-25] The credits are voluntary and "hold harmless" credits from the 2022 PPL acquisition. They are booked as a bill credit, so they reduce billed revenue. EIA computes price as revenue divided by sales. This is a plausible, but unconfirmed, reason Q4 2026 would not rise as much as the 15% supply-rate rise implies. https://news.pplweb.com/Rhode-Island-Energy-to-implement-Hold-Harmless-bill-credits-providing-additional-relief-to-customers - [2026-10-15] The supply increase applies only to Last Resort Service customers. Competitive-supply customers are not subject to the 17.03¢ rate. The statewide average rise is therefore smaller than the headline 15%. The Oct 1 standard-offer rate is 17.03¢ against 14.77¢ the prior winter. https://electricityrates.com/rhode-island/rhode-island-energy/ - [2026-10-15] Status quo: the strike (29.5) sits almost exactly at the 2025 annual (29.46). Prior-year pattern: winter 2026 Jan–Apr was well below 2025 (about −6% to −11%). That drag stays in the full-year average. Only May–July ran above 2025, and by less in absolute terms than the Q1 deficit. I computed this from the Sept 28 monthly series. Year-to-date through July is therefore probably below the 2025 YTD. https://geostellar.com/energy/electricity-rates/rhode-island - [2026-10-15] No cited source projects a 2026 RI annual residential price above 29.5. EIA does not forecast by state. Every secondary source I found shows a "current" figure of 28.3–29.2. https://electricityrates.com/rhode-island/ BOTTOM LINE: The weighted Jan–Jul figure of about 29.1, seasonally low Aug–Sep prints, and the Oct 1 credits (booked against revenue) mean Q4 must average above about 31 to clear 29.5. I could not confirm that is likely. Some risk of NO also comes from the late-February release timing. NOT FOUND: EIA Table 5.6.B (the page errored again); the YTD RI value for any 2026 period; EIA's Aug 2026 RI value; the revised final 2025 RI annual; confirmation of how EIA treats the bill credits; the Rhode Island Current articles in full (403).