Will Arkansas broiler production for 2026 be above 8.0 billion pounds?

- [2026-04 (NASS Poultry – Production and Value 2025 Summary)] Arkansas 2025 broiler production was 7.790 billion lb on 1.0527 billion head. 2024 was revised to 7.5613 billion lb. The 2026 figure needs about +2.7% over 2025 to exceed 8.0 billion lb. The annual estimate covers Dec 1 – Nov 30. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Todays_Reports/reports/plva0426.pdf - [2026-04] Arkansas ranked third in 2025 by pounds, behind North Carolina (8.272B) and Georgia (8.167B). Alabama was 6.628B. https://www.feedstuffs.com/livestock-and-poultry-market-news/value-of-u-s-poultry-production-rises-in-2025 - [2026-10-14] NASS Broiler Hatchery, week ending Oct 10: U.S. chick placements were 190.3M, up 1% y/y. Cumulative placements since Jan 10 were 7.83B, up 2% y/y. U.S. eggs set were 245M, up 3%. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Todays_Reports/reports/brls4126.pdf - [2026-10-14] Arkansas weekly placements (thousands) for weeks ending Sep 5 to Oct 10 were 22,403; 21,791; 21,792; 21,267; 20,482; 20,288. That is a drift down from about 22.9M/week in April–June. Arkansas eggs set were steady at about 24–26M/week (26,073 in the week ending Oct 10). The report gives no Arkansas y/y figure. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Todays_Reports/reports/brls4126.pdf - [2026-04-01 to 2026-06] Brownfield reported Arkansas placements of about 22.9M/week (Apr 1 and in late spring), with U.S. placements running 2% ahead of 2025. These are secondary reports. https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/news/2026-broiler-placements-running-2-ahead-of-2025/ - [2026-07-29] Arkansas placements were 21,445K and eggs set 26,698K in the week ending Jul 25. https://www.indexbox.io/blog/usda-nass-broiler-hatchery-report-july-29-2026-eggs-set-and-chicks-placed-up-year-over-year/ - [2026-08-18] ERS Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook (August): the 2026 U.S. broiler production forecast was raised to 49.623B lb, up 3.4% from 2025. Q2 production was 12.421B lb, up 4.5% y/y. The Q4 forecast is 12.4B lb, up 2.3%. The 2027 forecast is 49.9B lb. https://www.ers.usda.gov/media/29466/ldp-m-386.pdf?v=50341 - [2026-09 WASDE] The September WASDE left 2026 broiler production forecasts unchanged and raised 2027 in the second half. The 2026 WASDE dates are Oct 9, Nov 10 and Dec 10. I did not find the Oct 9 content. https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0926.pdf - [2026-10-09] The US Foods Farmer's Report said analysts expect balanced chicken supply through the end of 2026. Egg sets were up y/y. Breast meat prices were falling. https://www.usfoods.com/tools-tips-and-ideas/articles-and-publications/farmer-s-report/chicken - [2026-05-06] UA Extension: Arkansas broiler receipts were expected to rise 1% to $5.51B in 2026. That is a value forecast, not volume. https://www.uaex.uada.edu/media-resources/news/2026/may/05-06-2026-ark-net-farm-income.aspx - [Scheduled] The first published 2026 annual Arkansas estimate would be in NASS Poultry – Production and Value 2026 Summary, expected around April 2027. The 2025 edition came out in April 2026, which is before the 2027-04-30 close. A monthly ERS outlook is due around Nov 17 and a WASDE on Nov 10. BOTTOM LINE: U.S. output is running about 2–3.4% above 2025 (USDA forecast 49.6B lb, +3.4%). Arkansas needs about +2.7% over 7.79B lb to clear 8.0B, so the line is close to the national growth rate. Recent Arkansas placements have slipped to about 20.3–22.4M/week, and no Arkansas-specific 2026 production estimate exists yet. NOT FOUND: Arkansas y/y placement comparison; Arkansas cumulative 2026 placements; October 9 WASDE broiler text; September ERS outlook; any NASS state-level 2026 estimate (not published until about April 2027).

- [2026-04-30] NASS's first published 2025 Arkansas figure was 7.790 billion lb live weight (1.053 billion head), third among states behind North Carolina and Georgia. North Carolina was 8.272, Georgia 8.167 and Arkansas 7.790 billion lb. The 2026 threshold of 8.0 billion needs about +2.7% over 2025. https://www.feedstuffs.com/livestock-and-poultry-market-news/value-of-u-s-poultry-production-rises-in-2025 - [2026-04-30] Arkansas history (NASS Poultry Production and Value, Dec 1–Nov 30 years). 2024 was first published at 7,443,400 thousand lb , with a later-revised 2024 figure of 7,561,300 thousand lb . 2021 was 7,464,200,000 lb . Arkansas has therefore stayed between roughly 7.4 and 7.8 billion lb, and no year in this data has exceeded 8.0 billion. The 2025 figure is the highest seen here. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Todays_Reports/reports/plva0426.pdf - [2026-04-30] The same report shows that US live weight in 2025 was 62.2 billion pounds, up 2 percent from 2024 . Arkansas grew about 4.7% from the first-published 2024 figure to the first-published 2025 figure (7.443 to 7.790), and about 3.0% against the revised 2024 figure (7.561). That is a larger gain than the national 2%. Revisions to the prior year are material and upward. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Todays_Reports/reports/plva0426.pdf - [2026-04-30] Arkansas 2025 slaughter data: 1.049 billion head, 7.745 billion lb live weight, average 7.40 lb per bird. The first-published production figure is 7.790 billion lb on 1.053 billion head, which is about 7.40 lb per head. A 2026 total above 8.0 billion needs about +2.7% from head, bird weight, or both. https://www.uspoultry.org/economic-data/ - [2026-08-14] The USDA national forecast, which is the main outside expert estimate, is that 2026 broiler production will be 49,623 million lb ready-to-cook. That was up from the previous month's 49,552 million lb. A September 17, 2026 ERS outlook cited elsewhere gives 49.6 billion lb for 2026 (up 3.4%) and 50.0 billion for 2027. If Arkansas simply tracked the national rate, 2026 would come out around 8.05 billion lb. This is an inference, not a forecast I found. https://hpj.com/2026/08/14/usda-adjusts-poultry-and-egg-outlooks/ - [2026-04] The USDA 2026 forecast rose through the year. It was 48,375 million lb in December 2025 , 48.6 billion in January 2026 , 49.15 billion by April, about 2.4% above 2025 , and 49.6 billion by August–September. The direction of revisions has been upward, driven by heavier birds and slaughter. https://poultryproducer.com/usda-raises-2026-broiler-production-forecast-as-poultry-demand-stays-strong/ - [2026-10-14] The NASS Broiler Hatchery report shows US cumulative chick placements from Jan 10 to Oct 10, 2026 of 7.83 billion, up 2 percent from the same period a year earlier. Arkansas weekly placements for Sept 5–Oct 10 were 22.4, 21.8, 21.8, 21.3, 20.5 and 20.3 million. Arkansas weekly egg sets were about 24–26 million. Arkansas placements in the second half of September and October look soft compared with about 21.8–22.9 million per week earlier in 2026. I found no Arkansas year-over-year figure. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Todays_Reports/reports/brls4126.pdf - [2026-09-02] US placements were up about 2% year to date through August. The Arkansas state-level placement comparison against 2025 is not stated in the report text. One Brownfield summary for a week in early 2026 showed Arkansas placements of 21.83 million, against a US total of 195.7 million up 3% year over year. https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/news/broiler-sets-placements-remain-on-pace-early-in-2026/ - [2026-04-30] Timing and resolution. NASS published the 2025 summary on April 30, 2026. The 2026 summary should come out around late April 2027, probably the last day of the contract window (April 30) or just before it. The release date is not confirmed, so there is a risk it lands at or after the close. Resolution uses the first published estimate and later revisions do not count. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/publication/poultry-production-and-value - [2026-09-22] The NASS state overview, read from Quick Stats, still shows only the 2025 Arkansas head count (1,052,700,000). No 2026 Arkansas annual estimate exists yet. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Quick_Stats/Ag_Overview/stateOverview.php?state=ARKANSAS BOTTOM LINE: Arkansas has never been above 8.0 billion lb in the data I found, and its 2025 record of 7.79 billion lb is about 2.7% short. Arkansas would need to keep pace with the USDA's national forecast of about 3.4% growth (implying about 8.05 billion lb), which makes this close to a coin flip. Recent Arkansas placement weakness and the release date near the April 30 close both lean against Yes. NOT FOUND: any Arkansas-specific 2026 production forecast. Also missing: Arkansas year-over-year placement figures, Arkansas monthly or YTD slaughter weights for 2026, and the exact 2027 release date of the 2026 Poultry Production and Value summary.

YES means: NASS's first published 2026 Arkansas broiler production figure (Dec 1, 2025 – Nov 30, 2026), expected in the Poultry Production and Value 2026 Summary, is above 8.0 billion lb live weight. Revisions after that release don't count. - [2026-08-27] NASS state hatch data for June 2026 show Arkansas hatched 92.9M broiler chicks against 91.3M a year earlier, up about 2% (the US was also up 2%). Arkansas is therefore at least keeping pace with the national rate, and with no loss of share. A national-rate path is the main Yes route. Arkansas has to hold about +2.7%, and the 2025 base already includes a record bird count and weight. https://nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/North_Carolina/Publications/Farm_Reports/FarmReport08.pdf - [2026-09-17] The ERS September outlook gives next release as Oct 16, 2026. It says broiler prices were cut for 2026, which signals ample supply. It also says 2027 production was raised, which implies producers are still expanding into year-end. I did not find a cut to the 2026 level in the pages I read. https://www.ers.usda.gov/media/29662/ldp-m-387.pdf?v=86430 - [2026-09-19] The Sept 11 WASDE left the 2026 broiler forecast unchanged at 49,600M lb. That is +3.4% on 2025. It was raised from 48.5B in February, so revisions have been upward all year. If Arkansas grows at that rate, it reaches roughly 8.05B lb. https://hpj.com/2026/09/19/usda-lowers-2026-red-meat-and-poultry-production-forecast/ - [2026-05-18] The first quarter was strong: US production was 11,966M lb, up 3.7%, with March up 9.5%. Slaughter rose 8.3% and weights 0.9%. About 11 of the 12 production months fall in the Dec–Nov window, so most of the year's gain is already locked in. The 2026 annual window began Dec 1, 2025. https://www.ers.usda.gov/media/20881/ldp-m-383.pdf?v=11598 - [2026-08-18] Q2 production was up 4.5% (June up 7.8%), and the Q4 forecast is +2.3%. For the Dec–Nov window to land below +2.7% nationally, the second half would have to disappoint sharply. https://www.ers.usda.gov/media/29466/ldp-m-386.pdf?v=56616 - [2026-08 (10-Q for quarter ended Jun 28)] Pilgrim's Pride says H1 2026 industry production beat expectations, with higher liveweights and retail volume growth of 2.8%. It also says growth is moderating as egg sets and placements fall from peak. Pilgrim's has Arkansas operations. This supports the early-year strength but cautions about late-year slowing. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000802481/000080248126000051/ppc-20260628.htm - [2026-05-12] USDA attributed the 2026 and 2027 broiler expansion to favorable margins and strong domestic demand. It also cited the growing hatching-egg layer flock. Constrained beef supply supports chicken demand. https://www.cattlerange.com/articles/2026/05/may-wasde-report-usda-projects-higher-prices-for-cattle-corn-wheat - [2026-04-30] The NASS 2024 summary first published Arkansas at 7.443B, and the 2025 summary revised it to 7.561B. That is +1.6% on the earlier figure. Revisions have a history of lifting prior years. The first-published 2026 number is compared against the 8.0B line with no revision. A revised-up 2025 base (not the 7.79B first print) could mean the 2026 first print also benefits from better benchmark data. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Todays_Reports/reports/plva0426.pdf - [2026-04-30] Arkansas head grew 1.6% in 2025, from 1.0358B to 1.0527B. Pounds grew 3.0% on the revised base, so weight per bird rose about 1.4%. Weight gain alone can supply much of the 2.7% needed. Slaughter weights are running up about 0.3–0.9% nationally in 2026. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Todays_Reports/reports/plva0426.pdf BOTTOM LINE: The strongest Yes path is Arkansas matching the roughly 2–3.4% US growth seen through Q3 (June hatch +2%, USDA forecast +3.4%), which would put it at about 8.0–8.05B lb. This needs the strong Dec–Sep production to outweigh softer late-year placements, and NASS to publish before the Apr 30 close. The margin is thin. NOT FOUND: an Arkansas-specific 2026 production forecast; Arkansas year-over-year placements for Sep–Oct; the October WASDE broiler text; the exact release date of the 2026 NASS summary.

YES means: NASS's first-published 2026 Arkansas broiler live-weight production figure (Dec 1, 2025 – Nov 30, 2026) is above 8.0 billion lb. - [2026-10-07] Brownfield's Oct 7 summary of the NASS hatchery report gives Arkansas placements of 21.129M for the week ending Oct 3, down from 21.267M the week before. Sets were 26.0M. The Oct 10 value (20.288M) is lower still. Placements are falling while sets stay flat, which points to a weak hatch-to-placement conversion. Chicks placed in this window mostly reach market in November, the last month of the Dec–Nov accounting year. https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/news/broiler-sets-placements-fall-on-week-rise-on-year-2/ - [2026-10-07] Brownfield wrote that the chicks placed that week "will start heading to market in early November". Only about three more weeks of placements count toward the year. The weakness in Arkansas's last 6 weeks therefore carries through to the end of the accounting year and cannot be recovered. https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/news/broiler-sets-placements-fall-on-week-rise-on-year-2/ - [2026-09-17 to 2026-10-07] Brownfield's weekly series shows Arkansas placements of 21.79M, then 21.71M, then 21.13M by early October. Early summer was about 22.3–22.4M. Brownfield and NASS both report national placements as "2%" ahead cumulatively and only about 1% ahead in recent weeks. That is below the roughly 3.4% growth the USDA forecast implies. Arkansas needs +2.7%. https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/news/broiler-sets-placements-fall-on-week-rise-on-year-2/ - [2026-10-13] The October WASDE put 2026 U.S. broiler production at 49.72B lb, up 100M lb from September. Against the 2025 national base of 48.006B lb (September WASDE table), that is +3.6%. I note this as a Yes-leaning fact. The counterpoint is that national growth is not Arkansas growth, and it depends on bird weights and on states other than Arkansas. NASS's Dec–Nov live-weight basis also differs from USDA's calendar-year ready-to-cook basis. https://foodbusinessmea.com/us-red-meat-production-forecast-falls-as-poultry-output-rises-usda - [2026-08-18] The national growth in March (+9.5% production) was driven mainly by slaughter days and bird counts (+8.3% birds, +0.9% weight). The 2026 gain is front-loaded, with Q2 at +4.5% and Q4 forecast at only +2.3%. That leaves a weaker closing quarter, which is where Arkansas placements are softening. If Arkansas grew at about 2%, which matches the national cumulative placement pace, it would land at about 7.95B lb, below 8.0B. https://www.ers.usda.gov/media/29466/ldp-m-386.pdf?v=50341 - [2026-05-18] The 2026 national forecast for a 1% rise in the 2027 outlook and the repeated upward revisions show USDA has been chasing growth. Early-year forecasts were only +1% (Feb 2026 outlook). Heavy upward revision is a sign of uncertainty, not of a locked-in 3%+ gain. https://www.thepoultrysite.com/news/2026/06/usda-forecast-for-broiler-production-raised-for-2026 - [2026-04-30] History: Arkansas's first-published 2024 figure was 7.443B lb and the revised one was 7.561B lb. The 2025 first print (7.790B) was set against that revised 2024 base. The first-print gain in 2025 was therefore +3.0% on a like-for-like basis, not +4.7%. Arkansas has never printed above 8.0B in the NASS releases I saw. The state's 2018 figure was about 7.3B per the Arkansas Money & Politics profile, so growth over eight years has been slow, about 0.8% a year. https://armoneyandpolitics.com/arkansas-poultry-industry/ - [2026-04-30] Timing risk: NASS has published this report on Apr 30 (2026, 2020), Apr 29 (2025, 2021), Apr 28 (2022), Apr 27 (2023, 2018) and Apr 23 (2024). The 2027 release could land on or after the 2027-04-30 close. If it is not published by then, "NASS reports above 8.0B" has not occurred, which resolves No. The 2027 date is not on the ESMIS page I fetched. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/publication/poultry-production-and-value - [2026-04-30] The first-published estimate for a given year is set before revisions. The 2024 first print was revised up by about 1.6% a year later. A first print can run low against the eventual figure, which works against Yes. Because the question settles on the first print, a gap of up to about 1.6% below the "true" figure is a plausible downward bias for the first print. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Todays_Reports/reports/plva0426.pdf - [2026-04] Structural limits: Arkansas has had slow capacity growth. Tyson's Arkansas news in this period is about further-processing (the Springdale former Cargill turkey plant is being converted to value-added chicken) and the 2023–24 closures of North Little Rock and others. None of this adds live-bird growing capacity. Arkansas is not a state with new big slaughter plants driving a 3% jump. https://www.feedstuffs.com/agribusiness-news/tyson-to-buy-former-cargill-turkey-plant-in-arkansas BOTTOM LINE: The No case rests on a threshold of +2.7% that Arkansas has to beat while its own placements are fading into the final weeks of the Dec–Nov year. National growth is running closer to +2% in placements, Arkansas's long-run growth has been slow, and the first print can run low. There is also a small chance the NASS release slips past April 30, 2027. The counterweight is that USDA's October forecast of +3.6% nationally is strong support for Yes. NOT FOUND: any Arkansas y/y placement figure; Arkansas YTD 2026 slaughter or live weight; the scheduled 2027 release date of Poultry – Production and Value 2026 Summary; any Arkansas-specific 2026 production forecast; the full October WASDE text.