Will Kentucky private employment in Distilleries (NAICS 312140) for June 2026 be above 7,542 jobs?

- [2026-02-02] The KDA-commissioned report says Kentucky distilleries had 7,542 wage-and-salary jobs in June 2025, the latest BLS data at the time. That matches the question's threshold. It also reports a June 2024 peak of 7,644 and a 2024 annual average of 7,509. It says employment "plateaued" and warns of possible cuts over the coming year. https://kybourbon.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/FINAL-KDA-Economic-Impact-Report-2.2.26.pdf - [2026-12-02] BLS's release calendar lists County Employment and Wages for Q2 2026, the quarter containing June 2026, for Dec. 02, 2026 at 10:00 AM. That is the same day trading closes. QCEW state/industry data are normally posted at the same time. https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cew.htm - [2026-08-28] BLS released Q1 2026 QCEW data. The June 2026 figure is not yet published. QCEW releases come roughly 6 months after quarter end. https://www.bls.gov/cew/notices/ and https://www.bls.gov/web/cewqtr.supp.toc.htm - [2026-08-28] Q1 2026 national NAICS 312140 private employment was about 24,974 / 24,828 / 24,869 for months 1–3. That is down about 2–3% year over year, with 1,901 establishments. Nationally, the industry is weaker than a year earlier. https://data.bls.gov/cew/data/api/2026/1/industry/312140.csv - [2026-08-28] The Kentucky Q1 2026 row for 312140 was cut off in the fetched file, so Kentucky's Q1 2026 distillery employment and year-over-year change are unread. For Kentucky overall, private-sector employment in Q1 2026 is 3,979,000-ish across all sectors per the area file. I did not extract anything distillery-specific. https://data.bls.gov/cew/data/api/2026/1/area/21000.csv - [2026-06-02] Whiskey House of Kentucky (Elizabethtown) laid off 22 workers, about 30% of its workforce, on June 2, 2026. It was running at about 60% capacity and the workers have recall rights. The layoff falls in the reference month, a small negative of about 0.3% of the 7,542 base. https://www.aol.com/articles/another-kentucky-bourbon-maker-announces-175325000.html - [2026-06-02] The same report lists earlier 2025 cuts. Brown-Forman laid off 12% of its global workforce in Jan 2025, about 650 jobs, and closed its Louisville cooperage. MGP shut Limestone Branch and Lux Row for at least 12 months from April 2025. https://www.aol.com/articles/another-kentucky-bourbon-maker-announces-175325000.html - [2025-12-22] Jim Beam paused distillation at its main Clermont distillery for all of 2026. Bottling and warehousing continue and no layoffs were announced. Beam Suntory employs about 1,000 in Kentucky. https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/jim-beam-pause-production-main-132503445.html - [2026-08 update] The KDA's August 2026 one-pager reports 138 licensed distilleries (a record), a record 17.1M barrels aging, and exports down 15% in 2025. It still claims about 800 more jobs over two years, but that is a 2024 total-impact figure rather than June 2026 QCEW. https://kybourbon.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Bourbon-Boom-One-Pager-08-2026-Update.pdf - [2026-04] The Lane Report repeats that employment is "plateaued" near its peak, with possible reductions and postponed investment over the coming year. https://www.lanereport.com/186934/2026/04/bourbon-kentucky-bourbon-faces-a-shifting-market/ - [2026-09] Distillery job postings are still active in Kentucky (ZipRecruiter, Sept 2026). This is weak evidence and is not a count of jobs. https://www.ziprecruiter.com/Jobs/Distillery/--in-Kentucky BOTTOM LINE: The outcome will be known on 2026-12-02, the same day trading closes. The threshold is exactly the June 2025 level, 102 jobs below the June 2024 peak. The known news (layoffs, production pauses, a nationally weaker industry in Q1 2026) leans toward flat or down, but I could not read Kentucky's own Q1 2026 series. NOT FOUND: Kentucky NAICS 312140 private employment for Q4 2025, Q1 2026 or any month of 2026 (the Kentucky row was cut off from the fetched files). Also not found: any announced change to the Dec 2 release date, any BLS revision to June 2025, and any monthly Kentucky distillery employment series for 2026.

I could not retrieve the Kentucky NAICS 312140 monthly series for Q1 2026 or Q2 2025. The BLS CSV pulls were truncated before the Kentucky row. All Kentucky figures below come from the Kentucky Distillers' Association (KDA) report, which cites BLS data. - [2026-02-02] The threshold of 7,542 is the June 2025 QCEW figure for Kentucky distilleries. It is 102 below the June 2024 peak of 7,644. The KDA report says employment "plateaued" since June 2024, "down in some months and up in others". https://kybourbon.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/FINAL-KDA-Economic-Impact-Report-2.2.26.pdf - [2026-02-02] The same report gives a 2024 annual-average direct employment of 7,844 (a record) in its IMPLAN-based count. It gives 7,509 as the 2024 annual-average QCEW figure and 3,103 in 2010, i.e. +142%. The long-run trend is up. The most recent year and a half is flat. https://kybourbon.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/FINAL-KDA-Economic-Impact-Report-2.2.26.pdf - [2026-02-02] In the KDA's survey of 55 members, 29 reported higher employment from June 2024 to June 2025, 17 reported lower, and 12 reported no change. That is a mild net-up split, while QCEW showed a small year-over-year decline. https://kybourbon.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/FINAL-KDA-Economic-Impact-Report-2.2.26.pdf - [2026-04] The KDA report warns that trade volatility could lead distilleries to "reduce employment and postpone planned investments". It also says some distilleries could leave the market. https://www.lanereport.com/186934/2026/04/bourbon-kentucky-bourbon-faces-a-shifting-market/ - [2025-12-22] Jim Beam paused distilling at its Clermont campus for 2026. No layoffs were announced, and bottling and warehousing continue. Beam Suntory employs about 1,000 people in Kentucky. https://www.fortune.com/2025/12/22/jim-beam-halts-production-kentucky-distillery-amid-bourbon-glut - [2026-06-04] Whiskey House of Kentucky (Elizabethtown) laid off 22 workers, about 30% of its staff, around 2 June 2026. It is running at about 60% of capacity. Fox 56 and Yahoo report the recall rights for those workers. The layoff timing falls right at the June reference month. https://fox56news.com/news/kentucky/job-cuts-hit-kentucky-whiskey-producer-as-demand-slows/ - [2026-06-02] Yahoo Finance says the layoffs add to a growing list of cuts. Over the past 18 months, Brown-Forman, Suntory, MGP and others have cut jobs or production. This is a negative backdrop for June 2026 versus June 2025. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/another-kentucky-distillery-cuts-jobs-213309909.html - [2026-08] The KDA's August 2026 update still cites 138 licensed distilleries (125 in the February report) and a record 17.1 million barrels aging. Entry and expansion of small distilleries partly offsets large-firm cuts. https://kybourbon.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Bourbon-Boom-One-Pager-08-2026-Update.pdf - [2026-08-28] BLS published Q1 2026 QCEW data. Its national NAICS 312140 row shows March 2026 employment of 24,869, down 3.1% year over year. Month 1 of the quarter was down 2.0% and month 2 down 2.7%. Nationally the industry is shrinking year over year. https://data.bls.gov/cew/data/api/2026/1/industry/312140.csv - [2025-06] For Q2 2025, national NAICS 312140 employment was also down about 2.5–3.1% year over year (June 26,470). That makes it the second straight year of national declines. https://data.bls.gov/cew/data/api/2025/2/industry/312140.csv - [2026-10-15] BLS's release calendar sets Q2 2026 County Employment and Wages for Wed 2 Dec 2026, 10:00 ET. That is the market's close date. A delay such as the 2025 shutdown slip (Q2 2025 data came out 19 Dec 2025) would push resolution past close. https://www.bls.gov/cew/release-calendar.htm - [2026-10-15] Base-rate point: Kentucky distilling employment in the QCEW rose in most years from 2010 to mid-2024. After that it moved within about ±100 jobs of the 7,542 threshold. That is roughly ±1.3%, so any measurement noise or revision could flip the outcome. The 7,542 threshold is fixed and was a mid-plateau reading, not a peak. BOTTOM LINE: Kentucky distilling employment has been flat since mid-2024, and the threshold sits at the middle of that range. The sign of the year-over-year change is therefore close to a coin flip. The 2026 evidence (national employment down about 3%, Whiskey House layoffs, Beam pause) leans toward June 2026 at or below 7,542, partly offset by new small-distillery openings. NOT FOUND: Kentucky's own Q1 2026 monthly employment for NAICS 312140 and its Q2 2025 and Q3–Q4 2025 values. Also not found: any prediction-market forecast or expert estimate for the Q2 2026 figure, and a confirmed BLS publication date other than 2 Dec 2026.

YES means: BLS QCEW shows Kentucky private-ownership NAICS 312140 employment for June 2026 above 7,542 jobs, i.e. above the June 2025 level. - [2026-10-15] I could not find any Kentucky NAICS 312140 figure for 2026. The Q1 2026 industry file's Kentucky row was cut off even in a browser render. It does contain the national row, and the US row shows 1,901 establishments, up 18 (+1.0%) year over year. Establishment count is rising even as national employment is down 2–3%. That fits more small distilleries opening, which is the structural offset a YES needs. https://data.bls.gov/cew/data/api/2026/1/industry/312140.csv - [2026-10-15] Kentucky total private-sector QCEW employment in Q1 2026 was nearly flat year over year: March was 1,979,083, down 0.4%, and January was up 0.6%. The Kentucky economy is not in a downturn that would pull distilleries down. In the same file, the 312140 row is not readable. https://data.bls.gov/cew/data/api/2026/1/area/21000.csv - [2026-06] Kentucky Tourism's June 2026 "What's New in Kentucky Bourbon" lists Cave City Distilling Company as targeting a fall 2026 opening with 19 new jobs. Another project is projected for late 2027. Both are too late to count in June 2026, but they show that new-build hiring continues. https://www.kentuckytourism.com/media/docs/default-source/default-document-library/what's-new-in-ky-bourbon_june-2026.pdf?sfvrsn=f44b403b_0 - [2026-09] Job listings show hiring is still active. ZipRecruiter lists 523 distillery-related jobs in Kentucky (Sept 2026), including Heaven Hill distillery technicians and bottling and barreling roles at New Riff and Bardstown Bourbon. Many of these are not distillery-employment jobs, so this is weak evidence. A Suntory listing says its Shelbyville whiskey distillery was due for completion in early 2026. That could add payroll before June. https://www.ziprecruiter.com/Jobs/Whiskey-Distillery - [2026-02-02] The KDA report says Kentucky's peak was June 2024 and that employment "plateaued" since, with some months down and some up. It also says employment "remains close to its recent peak" despite cutbacks. A rebound of 1% from the 7,542 level would clear the threshold and still sit below the June 2024 peak of 7,644, so YES does not require a new record. The same report's member survey (the 55 members, see the earlier reports) showed more members adding than cutting jobs. https://kybourbon.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/FINAL-KDA-Economic-Impact-Report-2.2.26.pdf - [2026-02] The KDA's 2026 economic-impact brief says distilling supports 23,935 Kentucky jobs in total, up 800 over two years "despite cutbacks". The 2024 report said Kentucky holds 27% of national distilling employment. If that share holds against a smaller national base, Kentucky is declining only slowly. https://kybourbon.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/2026-Economic-Impact-FINAL.pdf - [2026-10-15] The most likely path to YES has four parts: - Expansion hires and new or small distilleries (the 125 to 138 license growth in the earlier reports) outweigh the 2025–26 cuts. - Pauses such as Beam's Clermont distillery stay as production pauses, with staff kept on payroll as the Dec. 2025 report said. - The Whiskey House layoff of 22 jobs is only about 0.3% of the base. - June 2026 rises to 7,543 or more, within roughly ±1% of the plateau. The margin is slim, so any positive drift would be enough. - [2026-10-15] The BLS release date of 2 Dec 2026 equals the trading close. If the publication slips, the contract may not resolve on time. That works against any resolution at all and is not a YES argument. A prior-year revision to June 2025 does not change the fixed 7,542 threshold. BOTTOM LINE: The best YES case is that the state's distilling employment has plateaued within about ±1% of the threshold, with establishments and licenses still growing and new openings adding jobs. Against that, I found no Kentucky 2026 data, and the national Q1 2026 figure was down about 3%, so YES rests on small-distillery growth offsetting large-firm cuts. NOT FOUND: Kentucky NAICS 312140 employment for Q3 2025 through Q1 2026 (the BLS CSV Kentucky row was truncated; my queries to the BLS timeseries API returned no data for the series IDs I tried). Also not found: any Kentucky June 2026 distillery payroll figure, or any evidence that Suntory's Shelbyville distillery opened or hired before June 2026.

YES means: BLS reports Kentucky private-ownership NAICS 312140 employment for June 2026 at 7,543 or more. A figure of 7,542 or lower resolves NO. - [2026-04-07] An MGP 8-K, which I read in full, says the idling of Limestone Branch and Lux Row takes effect on May 1, 2026. It affects 33 employees and could last as little as 12 months. This is a new fact. The earlier reports cited an April 2025 shutdown from a secondary source, but the primary filing dates the idling to May 2026. If those 33 jobs were on payroll in June 2025 and gone by June 2026, that is about −0.4% of the 7,542 base, before the Whiskey House layoff of 22. The two events together total about −55 jobs, roughly half of the 102-job gap between the threshold and the June 2024 peak. The filing calls the whiskey market "structurally oversupplied". https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/835011/000083501126000052/ex991mgpdistillery.htm - [2026-04-07] The same filing says warehousing, bottling and barrel programs continue at both sites, so the cut is only part of each site's headcount. This is a limit on the NO case. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/835011/000083501126000052/ex991mgpdistillery.htm - [2026-08-28] I re-read the Q1 2026 national NAICS 312140 file. It shows 24,869 jobs in March 2026, down 3.1% year over year. The national total was 25,674 a year earlier. Several states, including Alaska and Arkansas, show employment declines of 4–12%. The Kentucky row is cut off in the file even when opened in a browser. This confirms a broad national decline in Q1 2026. https://data.bls.gov/cew/data/api/2026/1/industry/312140.csv - [2026-08-28] In the same file, California shows a rise of about 21–25% and Arizona a rise of about 13%. Declines are therefore not universal. The national drop is not a uniform trend that Kentucky must follow. I am noting this against the NO case. - [2026-12-02] The BLS schedule page, which I read in full, lists Q2 2026 County Employment and Wages for Dec. 02, 2026 at 10:00 AM. The Q2 2025 release slipped to Dec. 19, 2025. Q3 2025 came out Mar. 10, 2026, and Q4 2025 came out Jun. 02, 2026. If the release slips even a day, the market has no published BLS figure at close. The question's own deadline is the trading close. A release on Dec 2 itself probably still counts, but any slip gives a technical route to NO. https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cew.htm - [2026-03-04] BLS Business Employment Dynamics shows Kentucky's private sector had a net loss of 6,580 jobs from March to June 2025, after a gain of 6,917 the prior quarter. Q2 2025 was a weak quarter statewide, and the June 2025 threshold is not a trough. This is a limit on the NO case: the base month was already soft. https://www.bls.gov/regions/southeast/news-release/businessemploymentdynamics_kentucky.htm - [2026-08-28] The BLS Q1 2026 release shows Kentucky total covered employment of about 1,979,100 in March 2026, down 0.4% year over year. The Kentucky economy is not adding jobs, so no statewide tailwind would lift distilleries. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cewqtr.pdf - [2026-06-03] The Tribune News Service says several Kentucky distilleries, including Bardstown Bourbon Co., have laid off workers in the last year and a half. It describes a continuing slump in domestic demand and a Canadian boycott of American spirits since March 2025. This adds that Bardstown Bourbon Co. cut staff, which was not previously reported, and it points to demand-driven cuts rather than one-off events. https://www.kentuckynewera.com/news/state/article_69141579-64a1-5afa-ac89-7008ea22d964.html - [2026-04] The Lane Report repeats the KDA's own forecast that distilleries may cut employment over the coming year. The industry body itself expected a decline in the period containing June 2026. The KDA Feb 2026 report called employment "plateaued", not growing. https://www.lanereport.com/186934/2026/04/bourbon-kentucky-bourbon-faces-a-shifting-market/ - [Mechanism] QCEW counts employees on payroll in the pay period containing the 12th of the month. Idled plants and recall-rights layoffs reduce the count immediately. New or expanding small distilleries add jobs slowly. The threshold is a strict ">" with no tie allowance, and 7,542 equals the June 2025 figure. Exactly 7,542 resolves NO. Any hold or decline resolves NO. Only a net gain of at least 1 job resolves YES. BOTTOM LINE: Known cuts effective by June 2026 (MGP's 33, Whiskey House's 22, other layoffs including Bardstown Bourbon Co.) are tens of jobs against a 7,542 base. A national drop of about 3% in Q1 2026, a flat KDA-described trend, and a strict ">" test all lean NO. A release slip past Dec 2 adds a small technical NO route. Offsetting this is the record count of licensed distilleries, which could add jobs and keep the series within about ±100 of the threshold. NOT FOUND: Kentucky's NAICS 312140 monthly employment for Q2 2025 through Q1 2026 (the Kentucky row is cut off in the BLS CSVs). I also found no figure for Jim Beam layoffs in 2026, no announcement of a BLS delay to the Dec 2 release, and no official estimate of the June 2026 figure.