Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?

- [2026-10-13] Stetson CPOR poll has Moody 52%, Nixon 41%. Moody's approval is 55/34. Stetson says it is little changed from its September poll. A Florida Politics analyst said the panel skewed toward Trump voters by about 5 points. https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2026/10/13/stetson-poll-donalds-moody-double-digit-leads-florida/ - [2026-10-07] St. Pete Polls (Oct 5–7, n=836) has Moody 47%, Nixon 45%. In mid-September the same pollster had 45–45. Nixon leads independents in the poll. Moody has been at 45% or higher in every public poll since the Aug 18 primary. https://floridapolitics.com/archives/823921-new-st-pete-polls-survey-has-ashley-moody-at-47-angie-nixon-at-45-and-the-senate-race-still-inside-the-margin-of-error/ (from a search snippet; the page did not load when fetched) - [2026-10-06] NBC6/Telemundo/Mason-Dixon (Sep 28–Oct 1) has Moody 50%, Nixon 40%, independent Neil Gillespie 2%, with 8% undecided. https://www.nbcmiami.com/elections/poll-shows-ashley-moody-leading-angie-nixon-in-floridas-u-s-senate-race/3869181/ - [2026-10-05] YouGov (n=3,813) has Moody 49%, Nixon 44%. The James Madison Institute poll (Oct 4) has Moody 52%, Nixon 42%. The Change Research poll for Democrats (Sep 27) has Moody 48%, Nixon 47%. https://pollingsource.com/senate/FL - [2026-10-11] The polling average is Moody 49.5%, Nixon 42.8%, about R+6.7. RealClearPolitics showed Moody +6.0 as of Oct 3 and rates the race Leans GOP. Poliwave's forecast is R+8.3. https://wflanews.iheart.com/featured/florida-news/content/2026-10-11-florida-polls-show-republicans-leading-governor-and-senate-races/ ; https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2026/florida/moody-vs-nixon - [2026-10-06] Cook Political Report's Senate ratings page (dated Oct 6) rates the seat Solid R. Sabato's Crystal Ball also rates it Safe R. Newsweek's Oct 10 article said all three raters had it "Lean Republican", which conflicts with Cook and Sabato; I did not resolve the conflict. https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings ; https://www.newsweek.com/florida-at-risk-of-flipping-as-races-tighten-12548554 - [2026-08-18] Moody won the GOP primary with 79.6% of the vote. Angie Nixon upset Alex Vindman with 56.1% in the Democratic primary. Trump endorsed Moody. https://pollingsource.com/senate/FL ; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Florida - [2026-10-10] Newsweek: Moody has declined to debate Nixon and no Senate debate is scheduled. Registered Republicans lead Democrats by more than 1.5 million active voters (5.65M to 4.1M as of Aug 31). Florida polls underestimated Republicans in 2018, 2020 and 2022. Democrats flipped a Florida House seat in March. https://www.newsweek.com/florida-at-risk-of-flipping-as-races-tighten-12548554 - [2026-10-01] Florida Democrats are attacking Moody over the Hope Florida scandal and for avoiding public events. Nixon is a DSA-aligned candidate endorsed by Bernie Sanders. https://www.wusf.org/politics-issues/2026-10-01/democrats-slam-ashley-moody-amid-heated-us-senate-race - [2026-10] Fundraising: Moody had raised about $11.3M by the latest filing, with $8.5M cash on hand. Nixon had raised about $625K. https://pollingsource.com/senate/FL ; https://kalshi.com/markets/senatefls/special-senate-election-in-florida/senatefls-26 - [2026-10-15] A Kalshi sibling market showed Moody about 91% and Nixon about 9% on Oct 10, with similar figures on the Kalshi page today. This is another venue's price, not the contract's own. https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/florida-senate - [2026-10-24] Scheduled: early voting must begin in all counties by Oct 24, and some counties start earlier. Election day is Nov 3. The only third-party candidate named in sources is independent Neil Gillespie, and independents don't count toward "Democrat" or "Republican" here. https://www.newsweek.com/florida-at-risk-of-flipping-as-races-tighten-12548554 - [2026-10-15] No AP, Fox or NBC call exists, since the election has not been held. The seat is a special election for the remainder of Rubio's term, which runs through 2028. BOTTOM LINE: Moody leads every nonpartisan public poll, by 2 to 11 points, with an average near +6 to +7. Cook and Sabato rate the seat Solid or Safe R, and Democrats have no scheduled debate or major spending edge. The closest poll (St. Pete Polls, +2) and a few Democratic-leaning polls (Change Research, +1) are the main upset signals. NOT FOUND: Any Senate debate date. Final AP, Fox or NBC calls. Independent Inside Elections or Sabato pages fetched directly. Any independent-expenditure totals for the race. Newsweek's "Lean Republican" ratings claim conflicts with Cook and Sabato's own ratings.

- [2026-10-15] Reference class: Republicans have won every Florida Senate race since 2012, and Democrats have not won one since then. Moody is the appointed Republican incumbent against Democrat Angie Nixon. Nixon is a state representative who beat the better-funded Alex Vindman in the primary with 56%. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Florida - [2024-11-05] Last Florida Senate race: Rick Scott won 55.6% to 42.8%, a margin of about 12.8 points. That was a larger margin than most pre-election polls suggested. Scott's 2018 win was by 0.12 points. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_Senate_election_in_Florida - [2022 and 2018] Moody's own record: she won Attorney General in 2018 by about 6 points, then won re-election in 2022 with 60.6%, a 21-point margin. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Florida_Attorney_General_election - [2026-10-14] Registration: Republicans lead by 1.5 million or more active voters, 5.65M to 4.1M as of Aug 31 (42% to 30%). https://floridapolitics.com/archives/823921-new-st-pete-polls-survey-has-ashley-moody-at-47-angie-nixon-at-45-and-the-senate-race-still-inside-the-margin-of-error/ - [2026-10-13] Latest poll: Stetson (Oct 1-9, an opt-in online panel) has Moody 52%, Nixon 41%. It has Trump's Florida approval at 50/49 and Moody's at 55/34. It notes that Democrats lead the national generic ballot this fall while Republicans lead Florida's by 9 points. https://www2.stetson.edu/today/2026/10/stetson-poll-donalds-moody-maintain-double-digit-leads/ - [2026-10-08] Polls since the Aug 18 primary: Moody has been at 45% or better in every one. The race is tighter in some polls: St. Pete Polls (Oct 5-7) had Moody 47%, Nixon 45%, and Change Research (D) had 48% to 47%. Others were wider: Mason-Dixon had Moody +10, YouGov +5, InsiderAdvantage (R) +7 and Stetson +11 (September). https://floridapolitics.com/archives/823921-new-st-pete-polls-survey-has-ashley-moody-at-47-angie-nixon-at-45-and-the-senate-race-still-inside-the-margin-of-error/ - [2026-10-12] Poll averages: RealClearPolling has Moody +7.0 (49.3 to 42.3) and rates the race Leans GOP. Poliwave has Moody +5.3 in polls, a forecast margin of R+8.3, and rates the race Likely R. https://www.sparkers-soapbox.com/florida-us-senate-general-election-2026/ and https://www.poliwave.com/us/fl/sen-fed - [2026-10-08] Expert ratings: Cook rates the race Solid Republican and Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Safe Republican. CBS12 says Inside Elections also rates it solid or safe. https://floridapolitics.com/archives/823921-new-st-pete-polls-survey-has-ashley-moody-at-47-angie-nixon-at-45-and-the-senate-race-still-inside-the-margin-of-error/ and https://cbs12.com/news/local/florida-polls-show-republicans-lead-democrats-in-governor-senate-races-still-close - [2026-08-09] Decision Desk HQ forecast, made before the primary against Vindman, gave the GOP about a 4 in 5 chance. It said Florida had a pronounced red lean since 2020. Its average then was Moody 47%, Vindman 40%. https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/florida-senate-republican-moody-vindman-approval-trump - [2026-10-10 to 10-15] Other venues: Kalshi shows Moody at about 91-92%, which is also the Kalshi price shown beside the Polymarket-linked RCP page. This is a different venue, and the figure is a snapshot. https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/florida-senate and https://kalshi.com/markets/senatefls/special-senate-election-in-florida/senatefls-26 - [2026-10-14] Money and risks: Moody had raised $11.3M through July, while Nixon had raised under $1M by then. Moody has skipped a debate. A Hope Florida grand jury report has drawn Democratic calls for her to resign. Sanders and EMILY's List are backing Nixon. https://floridapolitics.com/archives/823921-new-st-pete-polls-survey-has-ashley-moody-at-47-angie-nixon-at-45-and-the-senate-race-still-inside-the-margin-of-error/ and https://www.sparkers-soapbox.com/florida-us-senate-general-election-2026/ - [2018-11] Call timing: the 2024 race was called on election night. The 2018 Senate race went to a machine recount and then a manual recount (about 10,033 votes), but that was a 0.12-point race. https://globalnews.ca/tag/florida-senate-race/ BOTTOM LINE: The outside view strongly favors Republicans. They have won every Florida Senate race since 2012, Moody leads by about 5-7 points in the polling averages, and Cook and Sabato rate the race Solid or Safe R. Polling averages in Florida have understated GOP margins before, in 2024. The main downside risk is a national Democratic environment and a few close polls, but a Moody loss would have to be a large departure from every reference-class indicator. NOT FOUND: Inside Elections' own page, 538-style model probabilities for the Nixon race, and any Florida recount or runoff provisions beyond the usual (Florida has no runoff in the general election).

YES means: Republican nominee Ashley Moody wins the Nov 3, 2026 Florida U.S. Senate special election, as called by AP, Fox and NBC or, failing that, by certification. - [2026-10-13] The FiftyPlusOne average shows Moody 49.4%, Nixon 42.6% (+7). That is the freshest aggregator reading and shows no narrowing after the St. Pete Polls tightening. https://fiftyplusone.news/polls/senate/general/florida - [2026-10-07] The Poliwave forecast gives Moody 54.2% to Nixon 45.8% (R+8.3), above its raw poll average of +5.3. It also rates the race Likely R. This is a model that adds past results and the Florida House races, and it projects a wider GOP margin than the polls alone. https://www.poliwave.com/us/fl/sen-fed - [2026-10-14] Moody leads in the NBC/Mason-Dixon poll among Hispanic voters, 47% to 40%. That is a group where other reporting says Trump is losing ground, so her lead does not rest on one group alone. NBC's piece also notes the broad Democratic optimism and that the Hispanic shift away from Trump is visible, yet Moody is still ahead overall by 10. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/florida-poll-republicans-lead-races-governor-senate-midterm-election-races-rcna601342 (URL as returned in search: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/florida-poll-republicans-lead-races-governor-senate-rcna601342) - [2026-09-24] Stetson's September release (n=830) finds Moody is "the best-positioned candidate tested". 47% know her and could vote for her, 29% reject her, and 19% don't know her. Her approval is 50/32. Her rejection ceiling is therefore modest, and 56% of her backers say they vote for her rather than against Nixon. https://www2.stetson.edu/today/2026/09/poll-republicans-hold-double-digit-leads-in-florida-governor-u-s-senate-races/ - [2026-10-13] Money is the structural YES mechanism. As of the end of July, Moody had $11M+ against Nixon's $975K. Moody has already run a negative ad tying Nixon to the DSA. A UF political scientist says Nixon cannot answer the ads. The DSCC has not announced spending. Nixon's own statement refers to "millions of dollars in dark money" on the airwaves. A UCF professor said she needs "a blue tsunami" plus a "Republican undertow". https://newrepublic.com/post/216540/angie-nixon-florida-democrat-murphy - [2026-10-13] Sanders has sent Nixon $250K and Sen. Chris Murphy is visiting Florida. That is small next to Moody's money, and it shows national Democrats are not committing major funds. https://newrepublic.com/post/216540/angie-nixon-florida-democrat-murphy - [2026-10-13] Mail-ballot returns so far favour Democrats: about 226K Democratic against about 190K Republican of 500K+. This is a normal Florida pattern, since Republicans make it up in in-person early voting (Oct 24–31). 760K outstanding mail ballots went to Democrats and 600K to Republicans. In 2024, early voting by Republicans ran 1,721,624 to 904,239 on Oct 23. Final in-person and mail totals were 3.60M Republicans to 2.77M Democrats. So the early Democratic lead is not evidence of a Democratic edge overall. https://wflanews.iheart.com/featured/florida-news/content/2026-10-13-over-500000-florida-voters-cast-ballots-ahead-of-2026-election/ ; https://cbsnews.com/amp/miami/news/2024-election-florida-ballots-early-mail-in-voting - [2026-09-22] CBS Miami says Republicans lead statewide registration by about 1.55M. It expects about 8M voters. At 2022 turnout patterns (35% mail, 29% early in-person), the Republican registration edge converts into a lead among votes cast. https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/florida-mail-ballots-2026-midterm-election/ - [2026-10-07] In the St. Pete Polls survey (closest public poll), Moody held 82% of Republicans, up from 77% in September, and Nixon held 83% of Democrats, down from 85%. The sample was weighted 42R/31D/27 other. Nixon's lead with independents (49–36) is there, but Moody's gains are in the base. The poll shows her consolidating, and the poll has moved toward her since September. https://floridapolitics.com/archives/823921-new-st-pete-polls-survey-has-ashley-moody-at-47-angie-nixon-at-45-and-the-senate-race-still-inside-the-margin-of-error/ - [2026-10-14] Nixon faces fresh GOP attacks: FEC notices citing excessive contributions and a roughly $79K drop in reported receipts. A response is due Oct 22, or an audit could follow. A National Legal and Policy Center criminal referral alleges she omitted over $30K in unpaid IRS taxes and student loans. These are partisan-sourced allegations, but they hand Moody material for late negative advertising. https://flvoicenews.com/florida-gop-demands-answers-from-angie-nixon-over-fec-campaign-finance-violations-79000-receipt-drop/ - [2026-10-04] The Targoz/James Madison poll (n=857 likely voters, Sep 28–Oct 4) has Moody 52%, Nixon 42%. Its registered-voter version has her ahead 50–38. A second sample therefore has her leading by double digits. https://uspollingdata.com/races/senate/florida/ - [2026-10-12] The CBS12 report says Cook, Inside Elections and Sabato all put the Senate race at solid or safe (the governor's race is only Lean R). PollingSource reports Inside Elections moved the seat from Likely R to Solid R on Jan 16. That is a rating shift toward Republicans rather than away from them. https://cbs12.com/news/local/florida-polls-show-republicans-lead-democrats-in-governor-senate-races-still-close ; https://pollingsource.com/senate/FL BOTTOM LINE: The most likely path to YES is the ordinary one. Moody holds her base, Republicans make up the mail-ballot gap in early in-person voting, and her $11M money edge keeps a roughly 6–7 point polling lead intact through Nov 3. Nixon would need an upset beyond even the closest public poll (+2 for Moody) and a big turnout swing. NOT FOUND: Independent-expenditure totals or ad-spend data (AdImpact) for the race. A scheduled Senate debate. An Inside Elections page fetched directly (its rating comes via CBS12 and PollingSource). Any 2026 party-by-party turnout figures for the in-person early vote, which has not begun.

YES means: the Republican nominee (Ashley Moody) wins the Nov 3, 2026 Florida U.S. Senate special election, as called by AP, Fox and NBC or, failing that, by official certification. This is the strongest NO case. I found no evidence that makes it likely. - [2026-10-03] CNN reports that Democratic money has not followed the enthusiasm. Democrats had bought only about $3M of Florida TV airtime in total, per AdImpact, and Nixon "has faced financial disadvantages as well." That is the NO-side counterpoint to a late surge. The same piece says top Senate Democrats are focused on more winnable contests, and it notes Sanders pledged $250K. A NO outcome would need late outside money that CNN says is not arriving. https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/03/politics/florida-governor-race-byron-donalds-david-jolly - [2026-10-11] The main Moody liability weakened. An appeals court expunged the Hope Florida grand jury report, and CBS Miami calls it a win for Moody. The report had faulted her for failing to exercise due diligence. This removes the strongest Democratic scandal attack from the record. It also means the NO case now rests on the national environment and polling error alone. https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/desantis-hope-florida-grand-jury-10-11-2026/ - [2026-10-11] A hurricane was forecast to hit the Panhandle within about 36 hours of the Oct 8 press conference. The CBS Miami piece does not say it affects early voting or turnout. Storm disruption is a thin tail risk for turnout. It would hit rural Panhandle Republican areas more than urban Democratic ones, so it is not a clear pro-NO factor. https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/desantis-hope-florida-grand-jury-10-11-2026/ - [2026-09-17] The "tied" St. Pete Polls result (45–45) was weighted to the 42R/31D/27 other registration split. That is a more Republican-friendly electorate than a wave-year turnout. Even so, the poll showed a tie. This is the best NO-side data point. It also fits the Mediaite note that Change Research (D) is an outlier. Mediaite's article was written before the later polls. https://www.mediaite.com/media/news/shock-poll-democrat-angie-nixon-tied-with-republican-ashley-moody-in-florida-senate-race/ - [2026-10-07] Latest St. Pete Polls (Oct 5–7) has Moody +2, inside its stated margin of error. Among Hispanic voters it has Nixon 50–43 (a small subsample, per MundoNow's 10/13 summary). Mason-Dixon has Moody ahead 47–40 among Hispanics in the same subgroup. The two pollsters disagree on Hispanic voters by about 10 points. That is the main plausible path to a polling miss. https://www.mundonow.com/en/florida-senate-2026-moody-and-nixon-what-you-need-to-know-before-november-3/ - [2026-10-07] Poliwave's average of 21 public polls is Moody 48.6, Nixon 43.3, with a 54.2/45.8 forecast. Moody has not reached 50% in its average. Nixon at 43–45% in the better polls shows a Democratic floor well above the 2022 level. Poliwave's "last time" benchmark for 2022 was R+16.4. A swing of that size toward Democrats would still leave Moody ahead. https://www.poliwave.com/us/fl/sen-fed - [2026-10-13] FiftyPlusOne's average is Moody +7 (49.4 to 42.6) as of Oct 13. That is a larger gap than the roughly 4-point average the Tampa Bay Times cited on Sept 24. Over that window the polling trend moved toward Moody, not toward Nixon. Status quo and trend both favor YES. https://fiftyplusone.news/polls/senate/general/florida - [2026-09-24] Super PAC Stronger Safer Nation, backing Moody, has raised more than $12M and spent about $2.7M on anti-Nixon ads. It still held over $9M at the time. Nixon is outraised roughly 10-to-1, per WFLA (10/8). Nixon beat a 16-to-1 funding gap in the primary. A primary electorate is not a general electorate. https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/elections/2026/09/24/new-moody-ads-target-nixon/ - [2026-10-08] Moody declined WFLA's podcast, citing a prior commitment, while Nixon appeared. Nixon says Moody refuses to debate. Skipping debates is standard front-runner behavior. It is a weak sign of campaign worry. https://www.wfla.com/news/battleground-florida/nixon-gets-financial-help-from-national-democrats-in-senate-run/ - [2026-09-17] The ballot has three candidates: Moody (REP), Nixon (DEM) and Neil Gillespie (NPA, no write-in line per the Sumter County sample ballot). Gillespie polled 2–3%. Mason-Dixon had 8% undecided. A split vote does not change the plurality rule. No runoff exists, so no runoff risk applies. The resolution technicality ("independents not counted") does not hurt Moody. https://flvotersguide.org/races/u-s-senate-special-election/ - [2026-10-10] The "replacement nominee" clause is the only mechanism by which the market could resolve around Moody. Nothing I found suggests she will withdraw. The Hope Florida finding is now expunged. That clause matters only if she were replaced. https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/desantis-hope-florida-grand-jury-10-11-2026/ BOTTOM LINE: The case for NO is weak. It rests on a possible Hispanic-vote polling miss, one tied St. Pete Polls result and a Democratic-friendly national environment, while the money gap, the expunged Hope Florida report and the rising poll average all point toward Moody. The realistic NO paths are a large late polling error or a Moody withdrawal, and I found no evidence of either. NOT FOUND: Any scheduled Senate debate. Any independent or DSCC late Florida Senate ad reservation. AdImpact's Senate-only total for the race. Any report that Moody may be replaced. Any evidence of a Nixon-specific late surge after Oct 7.