Will Baidu be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

- [2026-06-08] The Department of War released the updated 1260H list. It names 188 entities and says it "will update the list with additional entities as appropriate." Baidu, Inc. is a new parent-level listing. This is the baseline list for the market. https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/ and https://www.wilmerhale.com/en/insights/client-alerts/20260611-pentagon-adds-65-new-entities-to-the-1260h-list-of-chinese-military-companies - [2026-06-08] The update added 65 entities and removed 10. The removals were affiliates of CNOOC and COSCO Shipping Finance, and the parent organizations remain listed. The Pentagon removed them on the grounds that they do not operate in the US. Baidu was not among them. https://www.dentons.com/en/insights/alerts/2026/june/18/dod-expands-section-1260h-chinese-military-companies-list - [2026-06-09] Baidu rejected the designation. It said it would "not hesitate to use all options available" to be removed. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/09/alibaba-baidu-byd-named-on-pentagons-china-military-list-.html - [2026-02 to 2026-04] There were two earlier false starts. In February 2026 the Pentagon published a list including Baidu and Alibaba, then pulled it within an hour with no explanation. In April a Federal Register notice was filed and withdrawn. These show the list's timing is politically sensitive around US-China summitry. https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20260216VL207/ymtc-alibaba-baidu-cxmt-byd.html and https://thefederalnewswire.com/u-s-defense-department-drops-filing-that-would-expand-section-1260h-list-of-chinese-firms - [2026-06-23] Alibaba sued DoD in N.D. Cal., calling the designation "arbitrary and capricious." The suit also raises First Amendment claims. A reported WuXi suit also exists. https://modeldiplomat.com/story/1260h-list-pentagons-chinese-military-ban and https://www.ainchina.com/blog/pentagon-blacklist-alibaba-baidu-byd-china-tech-decoupling-2026/ - [2026-10-08] Global Voices reports that Tencent and Baidu "have not yet filed any appeal" to be delisted. Only Alibaba's case is described, and DoD has filed its administrative-record evidence in it. https://globalvoices.org/2026/10/08/alibaba-sues-pentagon-to-denounce-being-classified-as-a-chinese-military-affiliate - [2026-06-30] The DoD direct-procurement ban on 1260H-listed entities took effect. A pending lawsuit does not stay it. https://www.clearytradewatch.com/2026/06/department-of-defense-adds-major-technology-automotive-and-biotechnology-firms-to-1260h-chinese-military-companies-list/ and https://modeldiplomat.com/story/1260h-list-pentagons-chinese-military-ban - [2026-10-12] A commentary piece (undated by the source, retrieved 2 days ago) estimates a final judgment in Alibaba's case "might not" come until late 2027 or 2028. The listing stays in effect meanwhile. This is a low-quality source. https://yelzkizi.org/alibaba-sues-pentagon-2026-military-blacklist/ - [2026-10-14] The only Baidu news this week is a securities class action over AI-revenue disclosures, with a lead-plaintiff deadline of 2026-11-13. It is unrelated to the 1260H listing. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/10/13/3380099/0/en/deadline-alert-baidu-inc-bidu-shareholders-who-lost-money-urged-to-contact-glancy-prongay-wolke-rotter-llp-about-securities-fraud-lawsuit.html - [Statute] Section 1260H requires annual updates. DLA Piper says the statute runs to at least 2030, and the last two updates came in January 2025 and June 2026. A next update could fall inside the window, but none is scheduled that I found. https://www.dlapiper.com/en/insights/publications/2026/06/dod-updates-and-expands-list-of-chinese-military-companies-operating-in-us-under-section-1260h BOTTOM LINE: As of 2026-10-14, Baidu is still listed. No delisting request, lawsuit or DoD review by Baidu has been reported, and the only litigation is Alibaba's, which is unlikely to finish before mid-2027. A removal by 2027-06-30 would most likely come from a politically driven DoD or Federal Register update, and nothing on that is scheduled or reported. NOT FOUND: Any Baidu lawsuit or formal delisting petition. Any DoD statement on reviewing Baidu. A scheduled next 1260H update. The Alibaba case's schedule. I did not fetch the official PDF list itself.

- [2026-06-08] DoW published the 2026 Section 1260H update with 188 entities. Baidu is a first-time listing, on grounds of indirect SASAC affiliation and MIIT-linked "military-civil fusion" status. https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/ and https://media.defense.gov/2026/Jun/08/2003945537/-1/-1/1/ENTITIES-IDENTIFIED-AS-CHINESE-MILITARY-COMPANIES-OPERATING-IN-THE-UNITED-STATES-IN-ACCORDANCE-WITH-SECTION-1260H.PDF - [2026-06-08] The same update added 65 entities and removed 10. The removals were mostly subsidiaries of COSCO, CNOOC and China Electronics, with no reasons given. These were routine pruning, not responses to company appeals. https://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2026/07/department-of-war-updates-section-1260h - [2026-02-13] A first version of the list, which also included Baidu, was posted and withdrawn within hours. The February version dropped YMTC and CXMT, but the June list kept both. This shows the list can be volatile and political, since it came ahead of a possible Trump trip to Beijing. https://www.military.com/daily-news/2026/02/13/chinese-company-names-suddenly-withdrawn-federal-us-government-list.html - [2025-10] The Pentagon told Congress on Oct 7, 2025 that Baidu, Alibaba and BYD should be added. Formal listing did not happen until June 2026, about 8 months later, and was reportedly affected by the US-China trade truce. https://www.wttlonline.com/stories/pentagon-move-to-add-alibaba-baidu-byd-expanding-reach-of-1260h-designations,14550 - [2026-10-08] Baidu has said it would use all options to challenge the listing. As of Oct 8 neither Baidu nor Tencent had filed an appeal or lawsuit. Alibaba sued on June 23 in N.D. Cal. https://globalvoices.org/2026/10/08/alibaba-sues-pentagon-to-denounce-being-classified-as-a-chinese-military-affiliate/ and https://modeldiplomat.com/story/1260h-list-pentagons-chinese-military-ban - [2026-08-18] The D.C. Circuit remanded Hesai's challenge to the Pentagon on due-process grounds but declined to vacate the designation. The DJI remand came on Aug 14. WuXi AppTec got a preliminary injunction on Aug 7 that suspended the designation's effect. Suspension does not count as removal under this market's rules. https://finance.biggo.com/news/706fd74c-a06f-4163-93d9-d6617685b429 - [2024-10-29] Hesai is the main precedent for a delisting that litigation produced. DoD delisted it on Oct 15, 2024, about 5 months after the May 2024 suit, "without prejudice to relisting". It relisted Hesai the same day on a new rationale, and a district court upheld the relisting in July 2025. Hesai had been listed for over 2.5 years by 2026. https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2024/10/29/2024-25168/notice-of-removal-of-designated-chinese-military-companies and https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1861737/000110465925085979/tm2521875d2_exh99x1.htm - [2021-05-25] Xiaomi was delisted after about 4 months of litigation. That listing was under the earlier, different Section 1237 regime. Other past delistings (AMEC, IDG Capital, Hesai) came through reconsideration or litigation, per a secondary source. https://baike.baidu.com/en/item/Chinese%20Military%20Companies%20List/1937166 - Base rate: the list has grown each year, from 134 to 188 entities. Full removals of major named parents are rare. I found only a handful in 5 years, mostly after litigation or DoD reconsideration, and many are subsidiaries. DoD's next update is expected annually, probably around Jan–Jun 2027, which falls inside the window. Delisting of a newly added tech giant within 12 months of listing has no precedent I could find. - Timing: any court-driven delisting of Baidu would need Baidu to sue first, since it had not as of Oct 8. A remand for fresh process, as with Hesai and DJI, does not itself remove the entity from the list. BOTTOM LINE: The reference class points strongly to No. Parent-company delistings are rare, the list is expanding, and Baidu was only just added. Baidu has not yet sued, and recent court wins (Hesai, DJI, WuXi) gave remands or suspension, not removal. The main YES route would be a US-China diplomatic deal or a DoD reversal in the next annual update. NOT FOUND: Any existing forecast, expert estimate or odds for Baidu's delisting. A Baidu lawsuit filing. Any DoD statement about reviewing Baidu. A complete count of historical 1260H full delistings.

YES means: Baidu, Inc. no longer appears as a parent-level entry on an updated official DoD/DoW Section 1260H list, or in a Federal Register delisting notice, published by 2027-06-30 11:59 PM ET. A suspension, a remand, a subsidiary-only removal or a rename does not count. - [2026-09-21] Trump and Xi held a third summit in Washington. Beijing was expected to raise 1260H, and some listed firms were reportedly in Xi's delegation. FDD's Craig Singleton said that raising the issue is different from Washington being "prepared to bargain away the list." The administration had signalled no willingness to back off. This is the main diplomatic path to YES. https://www.briefs.co/news/pentagon-s-1260h-blacklist-hangs-over-trump-xi-summit/ - [2026-10-12] The summit extended the US-China tariff truce by only two months, to 2027-01-10. The Asia Business Daily column says Washington read this as Trump giving ground to Xi's ability to retaliate, and notes Trump's approval in the 30% range. Further high-stakes talks are expected after the midterms. Baidu is a bargaining chip in those talks, and the January truce expiry falls inside the window. The column says nothing specific about delisting. https://asiae.co.kr/en/article/2026100814402935861 - [2026-02-13 to 2026-06-08] The February list was pulled after a senior White House official called the Pentagon. The June list came only after the May Beijing summit. The White House has therefore already overridden DoD on list timing and content. Reporting links the list's content to summitry. The February version dropped CXMT and YMTC, which the June list restored. So the list has shifted in response to politics. https://www.wilmerhale.com/en/insights/client-alerts/20260611-pentagon-adds-65-new-entities-to-the-1260h-list-of-chinese-military-companies and https://aiweekly.co/alerts/pentagon-labels-alibaba-baidu-byd-military-firms - [2026-09-21] Alibaba, WuXi AppTec, Hesai and DJI have all won preliminary court wins on evidence and procedure. This gives Baidu a template for suing, since DJI's SASAC-ownership reasoning was found "internally inconsistent" (Sept 2025 ruling). Baidu's listing rests on indirect SASAC affiliation and MIIT-linked "military-civil fusion" status, and that is the same type of reasoning DJI challenged. Advisers quoted in the same piece say few firms have ever got off the list through litigation. https://www.briefs.co/news/pentagon-s-1260h-blacklist-hangs-over-trump-xi-summit/ and https://modeldiplomat.com/story/1260h-list-pentagons-chinese-military-ban - [2026-06-23 to 2026-07-05] Alibaba obtained a court order on the lobbying rule from Judge Eumi Lee in N.D. Cal. A hearing was set for the week of Aug 31. This shows courts will give interim relief in this cycle, though not removal. https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3359638/alibaba-wins-reprieve-us-lobbying-after-pentagon-blacklisted-companies - [2021-05] Xiaomi's 2021 preliminary injunction led to its removal from the predecessor list within about four months. This is the clearest precedent for a court win turning into a delisting. https://www.techtimes.com/articles/318267/20260612/pentagon-bans-alibaba-baidu-byd-defense-contracts-june-30-188-chinese-firms-now-designated - [2026-10-09] The Pentagon has a published reconsideration process. A listed entity can submit evidence that its designation was unjustified or that circumstances have changed. Baidu can use this without filing suit, and DoD can delist it quietly at the next annual update. https://yelzkizi.org/alibaba-sues-pentagon-2026-military-blacklist (low-quality source) - [2026-06-30 / 2027-06-30] The indirect procurement ban takes effect on June 30, 2027, the last day of the window. US contractors and lobbyists are therefore pushing for resolution before then, which makes a pre-deadline delisting or review more likely. https://www.techtimes.com/articles/318267/20260612/pentagon-bans-alibaba-baidu-byd-defense-contracts-june-30-188-chinese-firms-now-designated - [2026-06-09 / 2026-06-24] Baidu called the designation "entirely baseless" and vowed legal action. Reporting says it "may pursue legal action." https://qz.com/alibaba-sues-pentagon-chinese-military-blacklist-062426 **Most likely path to YES:** A Baidu-specific reconsideration or lawsuit leads DoD to concede a weak SASAC or MIIT rationale, as it did with Xiaomi, or a US-China deal around the January 2027 truce expiry or the spring 2027 update drops Baidu. A DoD reversal in the 2027 annual update that removes Baidu from the list altogether would be needed. Prerequisites: Baidu actually petitions or sues (not reported as of Oct 8), DoD finds a delisting acceptable politically, and the removal is published before June 30, 2027. The Hesai case shows DoD can delist and then relist on a new rationale, and a delisting of that kind would still count here, because the market resolves Yes even if a removal is later retracted. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES case combines US-China bargaining pressure (truce expiry on 2027-01-10, the White House's earlier override of DoD), a procedural-weakness template from DJI and Hesai, and the June 2027 indirect-ban deadline pushing for resolution. Each step is still hypothetical, and Baidu has not yet filed. NOT FOUND: Any Baidu lawsuit or reconsideration petition. Any report that 1260H delistings were discussed or agreed at the September summit. Any DoD statement on reviewing Baidu. The outcome of the Alibaba hearing that was set for the week of Aug 31.

YES means: Baidu, Inc. is fully removed from the DoD/DoW Section 1260H list, through a published updated list or Federal Register notice, by 2027-06-30 11:59 PM ET. - [2026-09-21] The Washington summit this week was expected to bring Chinese complaints about 1260H, but the report found no US sign of backing off. It quotes the FDD's Craig Singleton on the gap between China raising the list and Washington "bargaining away" the list. It also says few firms have historically gotten off the list through litigation, because judges defer to the Pentagon's national-security judgments. The report is secondary and was published by a finance site. https://www.briefs.co/news/pentagon-s-1260h-blacklist-hangs-over-trump-xi-summit/ - [2026-10-12] A column on the summit's result says it did not move the list. The trade truce, due to expire 2026-11-10, was extended only to 2027-01-10. Critics called it a stopgap that won Trump little. The column describes the June 8 listing as a post-Beijing-summit move, and it shows the list was not traded away in two summits (Beijing in May, Washington in September). The next negotiating round comes after the midterms. https://www.asiae.co.kr/en/article/2026100814402935861 - [2026-06-08 to 2026-07-06] Courts have so far suspended effects rather than removed anyone. The Alibaba order of July 5 paused only the lobbying-ban consequence (Section 4663, formerly Section 851) while Alibaba remained on the list. The order lasts until the motion is resolved or 60 days after a hearing. Under this market's rules, suspension does not count. https://aiweekly.co/alerts/alibaba-wins-court-reprieve-on-pentagon-1260h-lobbying-ban - [2026-06-11] WuXi AppTec sued in D.D.C. on June 11, and its filing treats removal as a later judgment ("A later judgment may conclusively remove"). That is why the interim relief so far has not changed the list. Alibaba's case 5:26-cv-06227 is still "ongoing" on the Clearinghouse tracker. Neither case has produced a delisting four months in. https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/USCOURTS-dcd-1_26-cv-02069/pdf/USCOURTS-dcd-1_26-cv-02069-0.pdf and https://clearinghouse.net/case/48323/ - [2025-01-07] DoD's reconsideration process is a written request, emailed to a 1260H mailbox, with evidence. It has no deadline for DoD to respond and no named decision-maker. It only works if the Department chooses to publish a new list. Section 1260H requires only that additions and deletions be published "no less frequently than annually." DoD needs no mid-year update. The last gap was about 17 months (Jan 2025 to June 2026). Another list could easily fall after 2027-06-30. https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/01/07/2025-00070/notice-of-availability-of-designation-of-chinese-military-companies and https://www.dlapiper.com/en/insights/publications/2026/06/dod-updates-and-expands-list-of-chinese-military-companies-operating-in-us-under-section-1260h - [2026-06-08] The DoD stated reason for the 10 removals was that the entities do not operate in the US. That is a factual test, not a merits test. Baidu operates in the US (its US operations are not in doubt) and was listed on indirect SASAC and MIIT-affiliation grounds. The June removals show the Department delists on this ground, not because of appeals or diplomacy. https://www.wilmerhale.com/en/insights/client-alerts/20260611-pentagon-adds-65-new-entities-to-the-1260h-list-of-chinese-military-companies - [2026-06-08] After the February list was pulled, the June list was the Department's reaffirmed version. It kept CXMT and YMTC, which the February version had appeared to remove, and Baidu was in both versions. That means Baidu's inclusion survived the February-to-June reconsideration. The Department chose its final list after a political review of the February version, so a quick reversal is unlikely. https://www.wilmerhale.com/en/insights/client-alerts/20260611-pentagon-adds-65-new-entities-to-the-1260h-list-of-chinese-military-companies - [2026-06-08] Section 1260H's operative effect is cumulative. The direct procurement ban took effect June 30, 2026, and an indirect ban follows on June 30, 2027. Indirect procurement is the day after this market's deadline, so DoD and Congress have reason to keep the list stable into 2027. https://www.hlc.com/en/publications/insights-us-department-of-defense-issues-updated-section-1260h-chinese-military-companies-list - [2026-10-14] Even Alibaba, which sued and says it engaged DoD for months, got no reply from the Pentagon to its submissions. The Pentagon has also reportedly accused Alibaba of improperly taking data from Silicon Valley firms. Baidu has not filed (per colleagues' Oct 8 finding), so it has no litigation or petition pending. This leaves no process that would produce a Baidu removal before June 2027. https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/alibaba-sues-pentagon-remove-military-192941272.html - [2026-09-21] Hesai and DJI's court outcomes were remands, as in the earlier research. The Hesai precedent shows even a litigation-driven delisting (Oct 2024) was relisted the same day. A relisting does not matter here: under this market's rules removal counts even if later withdrawn. Even so, that precedent needed a lawsuit by the company itself. Baidu has not sued. https://www.briefs.co/news/pentagon-s-1260h-blacklist-hangs-over-trump-xi-summit/ BOTTOM LINE: Removal requires DoD to publish a revised list within about eight and a half months, and DoD's own track record (a 17-month gap, an 8-month delay to list Baidu, a deliberately reaffirmed June list) works against that. Baidu has filed no lawsuit or visible petition, courts have only suspended effects, and two summits have not moved the list. Status quo means No. NOT FOUND: Any Baidu lawsuit or reconsideration petition. Any DoD commitment to a 2027 update date. Alibaba or WuXi case-schedule dates beyond the July 5 order. Any US official signal that Baidu might be removed.