Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5.8 million barrels/day?

Where the EIA series stands: Jan–Jul 2026 averages about 5,760 kb/d, so Aug–Dec must average about 5,856 kb/d for the year to exceed 5,800. The monthly table printed a "Release Date: 10/30/2026" stamp, which is later than today's date. I could not explain that stamp. - [2026-10-14] EIA's monthly "Texas Field Production of Crude Oil" series (the resolution source) shows these 2026 values in kb/d: Jan 5,563; Feb 5,814; Mar 5,790; Apr 5,851; May 5,802; Jun 5,732; Jul 5,768. Aug–Dec are not yet published. My calculation from these figures: the Jan–Jul mean is about 5,760 kb/d, and Aug–Dec must average more than about 5,856 kb/d for the annual figure to exceed 5,800. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPTX2&f=M - [2026-10-14] EIA's monthly series for 2025 shows Jul 5,840, Aug 5,836, Sep 5,812, Oct 5,767, Nov 5,831 and Dec 5,801 kb/d. Its annual table lists 2025 at 5,761 kb/d, 2024 at 5,674 and 2023 at 5,501. The annual table's release date is 9/30/2026 and its next release is 8/31/2027. That is after the 2027-03-31 close, so the monthly series will probably decide the outcome. The EIA notes elsewhere that annual totals use revised monthly estimates. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPTX2&f=A - [2026-10-14] The June and July 2026 values (5,732 and 5,768) are below the April value (5,851) and below the same months of 2025 (5,756 and 5,840). The 2026 monthly peak so far is April at 5,851. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPTX2&f=M - [2026-10-06] The EIA's October STEO raised its 2026 US crude production forecast to 13.87 million b/d (13.9 in the headline table), up 0.29% from the September STEO, and put 2027 at 14.30. The September STEO had 13.8 for 2026, against 13.7 for 2025. The STEO has no Texas-specific figure that I found. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf - [2026-10-06] The October STEO forecasts Brent at $105/b in Q4 2026, $14 above the September STEO. It estimates global production shut-ins of 4.8 million b/d in September, down from 5.8 in August and a 10.9 peak in May. This is a Middle East supply-disruption price environment that supports US drilling. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf - [2026-09-10] The EIA's Today in Energy says first-half 2026 US crude output averaged 13.7 million b/d, up 0.3 million b/d from first-half 2025. It says most of the growth is in the Permian (Texas and New Mexico) and the Federal Gulf. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=68125 - [2026-10-09] The Baker Hughes Permian rig count rose by 4 to 274, the highest since June 2025, versus 250 a year earlier. The US oil rig count is 462, the highest since May 2025. The total rig count is 603, the highest since May 2024. https://boereport.com/2026/10/09/us-energy-firms-add-rigs-for-fourth-time-in-five-weeks-to-highest-since-2024-baker-hughes-says/ - [2026-10-09] The EIA weekly estimate of US crude production was 13.979 million b/d for the week ending Oct 2, up 350,000 b/d from a year earlier. https://www.newsbeep.com/us/876676/ - [2026-10-01] The Railroad Commission of Texas (RRC) reported preliminary July 2026 crude oil (lease oil only, excluding condensate) at 3.92 million b/d. Its June figure was 3.98 million b/d. The RRC figures are preliminary and revised upward over time, and EIA says they differ from its own estimates, so they are not the resolution source. https://www.rrc.texas.gov/news - [2026-09-01] The Dallas Fed energy slideshow, citing EIA data, shows Texas oil production at about 8.9–9.0 million b/d for Jun/Jul. That looks like crude plus condensate or another measure, not the resolving series. https://www.dallasfed.org/-/media/Documents/research/energy/energycharts.pdf - [2026-10-14] Next EIA releases: the Petroleum Supply Monthly with August state data is due around the end of October (the table shows 10/30/2026). September data follows about 11/30/2026. December 2026 data would arrive around the end of February 2027, before the 3/31/2027 close. I did not find a published PSM schedule to confirm these dates. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPTX2&f=M BOTTOM LINE: With seven months published, the year-to-date average is about 5,760 kb/d. Texas needs roughly 5,856 kb/d on average for Aug–Dec, above any 2026 month so far (peak 5,851) and above the 2025 monthly range of 5,767–5,840 from Jul–Dec. Supportive factors are the Q4 Brent forecast of $105/b, Permian rigs at a 15-month high and record US output forecasts. Against that, Texas has been flat at about 5.73–5.85 million b/d since March, and prior-month revisions in EIA's series are a risk in either direction. NOT FOUND: EIA's own Texas-specific 2026 forecast (the STEO has none); August 2026 Texas data (not yet released); a confirmed PSM release calendar; whether EIA has revised the January–July Texas figures.

- [2026-10-14] EIA's monthly Texas Field Production of Crude Oil series (kb/d) shows 2026 Jan–Jul at 5,563 / 5,814 / 5,790 / 5,851 / 5,802 / 5,732 / 5,768. I compute the Jan–Jul mean as about 5,760 kb/d. That is below the 5,800 threshold. The page header says the release date is 10/30/2026 and the next release is 11/30/2026, which is odd given today's date, so the July figure may be preliminary. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPTX2&f=M - [2026-10-14] Arithmetic: for the 2026 average to exceed 5,800 kb/d, Aug–Dec must average about 5,856 kb/d or more (my calculation). That is above every monthly print so far in 2026. The 2026 high is 5,851 (Apr). The all-time monthly high in this series is 5,843 (Oct 2024) and 5,840 (Jul 2025). The same series gives Jul 2026 at 5,768. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPTX2&f=M - [2026-09-30] Annual EIA Texas crude production (kb/d), 2020–2025: 4,849 / 4,784 / 5,133 / 5,501 / 5,674 / 5,761. Growth was +349 in 2022, +368 in 2023, +173 in 2024 and +87 in 2025. The 5,800 line needs only +39 over 2025, but 2025's gain was the smallest in four years. The annual page says the next release is 8/31/2027, after the market closes. The monthly series (December data around late Feb 2027) would be the practical source. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_crpdn_adc_mbblpd_a.htm - [2026-10-14] Reference class: Texas annual averages have risen in 4 of the last 5 years. The exception was 2021, a post-COVID dip. Since the 2017 rebound, only 2020 and 2021 fell, both pandemic-related. 2025 monthly values were flat at about 5.76–5.84 million b/d from April to December. This points to a plateau, not strong growth. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPTX2&f=M - [2026-10-08] The October 2026 STEO raised the U.S. 2026 crude forecast by 0.29% to 13.87 million b/d. It also forecasts 14.30 million b/d for 2027. This is a 1.5% rise from 2025 to 2026. The September STEO had 13.83 million b/d for 2026, with Lower 48 ex-Gulf at 11.38 million b/d. Most of the growth is in the Federal Gulf, so the Texas contribution is unclear. EIA's STEO does not publish a Texas-specific number in the sources I found. https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/10/08/short-term-energy-outlook-october-2026 - [2026-09-10] EIA says U.S. 1H26 crude output averaged 13.7 million b/d, up 2% (0.3 million b/d) on 1H25. It attributes the growth mainly to the Permian (Texas and New Mexico) and the Federal Gulf. Texas's own 1H26 average is roughly 5.76 million b/d, about 0.5% above 1H25 by my calculation. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=68125 - [2026-09-30] Price backdrop: WTI averaged $98.70 during the Dallas Fed Q3 survey, collected Sept 16–24, amid a seven-month-old Iran war. Respondents expect year-end WTI of about $88. The survey's oil production index rose from 15.0 in Q2 to 20.7 in Q3. The E&P capex index eased to 35.3 from 42.7. Higher prices and rising activity favour a late-2026 production uptick. Drilling lags prices by about 6–9 months, and the capex index only turned positive in Q1 2026. https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/des/2026/2603 - [2026-09-25] Baker Hughes had 599 U.S. rigs, 50 above a year ago. The Permian had 270 rigs, up 17 year over year. https://afeleaks.substack.com/p/dallas-fed-q3-2026-energy-survey - [2026-01-22] Earlier outlook: in January 2026 EIA forecast flat-to-lower U.S. output because WTI was expected near $52. By March, with prices raised, it forecast 13.6 million b/d for 2026. EIA's 2026 U.S. forecast has since been revised up from 13.5 to 13.87 million b/d, so forecast error has run to the upside. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67045 - [2026-08-?? to 2026-09-03] Railroad Commission of Texas (RRC) preliminary data show June 2026 crude at about 3.98 million b/d. The RRC figure excludes condensate and is revised upward for 6–8 months. The question uses EIA only, and EIA's Texas figure includes lease condensate. RRC data are not usable for resolution. https://www.rrc.texas.gov/news/texas-oil-and-gas-production-statistics-for-june-2026/ - [2025] EIA's monthly Texas estimates are survey-based (Form EIA-914). The monthly values are revised, and annual data are re-benchmarked. Past revisions have moved Texas by tens of kb/d, which is comparable to the 39 kb/d gap here. https://www.plainview-energy.com/p/unpacking-eias-oil-production-data BOTTOM LINE: The outside view puts 2026 close to the threshold but on the low side. Jan–Jul averages about 5.76 million b/d, and Aug–Dec would need to average about 5.86 million b/d, above any month on record. High prices and rising rigs could still lift late-2026 output, and EIA revisions of tens of kb/d could matter. NOT FOUND: Texas-specific EIA STEO forecast for 2026; August 2026 EIA Texas monthly figure; any third-party Texas annual forecast (TXOGA, Dallas Fed) for 2026. I did not look for this contract's price.

YES means: EIA's annual-average Texas field production of crude oil for calendar 2026 comes out above 5,800 kb/d (5.8 million b/d). - [2026-09-10] EIA's September STEO, read in full, forecasts Permian oil at 6.8 million b/d for 2026, 3% above 2025. It ties the growth to WTI averaging $84/b through August, against $65 in 2025. EIA says this is above the Delaware and Midland breakevens reported by Dallas Fed respondents ($63 and $69). A 3% rise applied to Texas's 2025 average of 5,761 would be about 5,930 kb/d, so EIA's forecast implies the line is cleared. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=68125 - [2026-10-14] The path to YES is a back-half ramp, which needs two things. First, Aug–Dec must average about 5,856 kb/d, and the ramp has to show up in EIA's Texas series rather than only in company results. Second, EIA's estimates for Aug–Dec must not be revised down. EIA's own Permian forecast (+3% for the year, against Texas roughly flat year to date) implies a steep second-half rise. The Permian rig count of 274 on Oct 9 (reported earlier) is the leading indicator for it. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=68125 - [2026-08-05] Permian Resources reported Q2 oil of 198.1 kb/d, up 3% on Q1. It raised its 2026 oil guidance by 10 kb/d from its February initial level, to a 199 kb/d midpoint. It guides H2 oil above 200 kb/d. The increase came from more workovers, higher working interest and a bolt-on that closed July 31. This is quick-response volume that lands in Q3–Q4. https://permianres.com/permian-resources-announces-strong-second-quarter-2026-results-and-updated-full-year-guidance/ - [2026-08-05] Permian Resources said it curtailed high-GOR volumes because Waha gas prices averaged -$3.14/Mcf in Q2 (low of -$9.52). That depressed gas and NGL volumes, not just oil. Per AEGIS (2026-08-06), about 3 Bcf/d of Permian gas egress has come online this year, with 2 Bcf/d more due by end-Q4, and the Waha spread has narrowed significantly. Easing takeaway constraints is a mechanism for H2 uplift that the flat Jun–Jul prints may not yet reflect. https://aegis-hedging.com/insights/basis-brief-waha-gas - [2026-06-?? to 2026-07] Operators raised guidance across the basin. Diamondback raised its 2026 oil guidance to at least 522 kb/d. Matador raised its oil guidance to 127.5–129 kb/d. Kimbell's 8-K lifted its Q3 and Q4 production guidance by 10% and 15% over prior midpoints (royalty-weighted, Permian-led). These raises came after Q1 and Q2 earnings, so most of the incremental barrels fall in H2. https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/exxonmobils-permian-growth-keep-driving-140900428.html - [2026-06-02] East Daley's survey of Permian operators rose from 2.7% growth (post-Q4) to 3.2–3.3% (post-Q1), about +217–223 kb/d. It models Permian oil at about 7.05 million b/d in 2026 against 6.82 in 2025. Guidance has been revised upward every cycle. https://eastdaley.com/crude-oil-edge/producers-bump-up-guidance-in-response-to-higher-crude-prices - [2026-10-14] EIA's early-year Texas prints have been revised upward. YCharts, citing EIA, showed Jan at about 172.36 million bbl (5,560 kb/d) and Feb at 162.56 million bbl (5,806 kb/d). The colleagues' table now shows 5,563 and 5,814. That is a gain of about +3 kb/d for Jan and +8 kb/d for Feb. Late-stage upward revisions are the realistic way the roughly 39 kb/d annual gap closes even without a large production jump. This is a small sample and I could not confirm whether Mar–Jul have moved. https://ycharts.com/indicators/texas_crude_oil_production - [2026-10-06] The October STEO (reported earlier) put Brent at $114 in September, $23 above August. The September STEO's August average was only $91. Quarterly, the October STEO has Brent in Q4 above the September STEO, and the Permian rig count (Sept 25 and Oct 9) is rising. Shut-ins abroad are 4.8 million b/d, so there is no sign of price relief that would pull rigs. Fourth-quarter output will benefit from drilling decisions made in March–June, when WTI was already above $84, given the roughly 6–9 month lag. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf - [2026-09-30] EIA's Petroleum Supply Monthly (with July data) was released Sept 30, and its next release is Oct 30. That means August data (due Oct 30), September (due about Nov 30) and later months will all publish before the 3/31/2027 close. December 2026 data should land by about the end of February. Year-end monthly revisions are therefore captured within the resolution window. https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/monthly/ - [2026-10-14] The Texas monthly series was flat at about 5.76–5.84 million b/d for most of 2025 (Apr–Dec). The 2025 H2 average of about 5,809 was itself above 5,800. A repeat of the 2025 H2 level, plus the 2026 price and rig tailwind and the upward revisions, would still leave Aug–Dec short of 5,856. The YES case therefore rests on a rise above the 2025 plateau, not on a return to it. This is arithmetic on the colleagues' monthly table. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPTX2&f=M BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES case is that EIA's own forecasts, the post-Q2 guidance raises, easing Waha takeaway and the lagged response to $85–$114 oil produce an Aug–Dec ramp. That would need to push Texas above about 5,856 kb/d, and the January–February revisions suggest upward revisions could add part of the gap. The data does not yet show this ramp: Jun and Jul were below the April peak, so YES needs an inflection that starts with the August print due Oct 30. NOT FOUND: A Texas-specific EIA forecast for 2026 (the STEO has none). August 2026 Texas data. Confirmation that EIA revised March–July Texas values. A public Texas annual forecast from the Dallas Fed or TXOGA.

YES means: EIA reports Texas's calendar-2026 annual-average crude oil field production above 5,800 kb/d (5.8 million b/d). - [2026-10-14] I re-read EIA's monthly series. Jan–Jul 2026 sums to 40,320 kb/d, and 69,600 is the total needed for a 5,800 average. Aug–Dec must therefore sum to more than 29,280, which is 5,856 kb/d per month. Texas has not printed that level in any month of 2025 or 2026. The series' all-time high is Oct 2024 at 5,843, and the 2026 peak is Apr at 5,851. A gap of 5,856 against a 5,768 July print means roughly +88 kb/d over July, held for five straight months. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPTX2&f=M - [2026-10-14] The July-to-August step is the weak point. The Aug 2025 print was 5,836, and Aug–Dec 2025 averaged only 5,809. Matching 2025's seasonal path would leave 2026 at about 5,775 for the year. Repeating 2025's Aug–Dec average of 5,809 gives about 5,761. The market therefore needs a late-year step-up that 2025 did not show. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPTX2&f=M - [2026-10-01] The RRC's lease-oil-only figure for July 2026 was 3.917 million b/d. That is below the June figure of 3.98 million b/d reported in the earlier research. The July 2025 RRC figure was updated to 148.6 million bbl, about 4.79 million b/d, so it is not comparable with the preliminary 2026 number. The RRC's own series shows no surge that would push EIA's Texas numbers upward. https://www.rrc.texas.gov/news - [2026-10-01] RRC data for July 2026 show 612 drilling permits and 541 new oil completions statewide. The Midland district accounts for 360 of those completions. This is steady activity, not a step-change. https://www.rrc.texas.gov/news/texas-drilling-permit-and-completion-statistics-for-july-2026/ - [2026-09-10] EIA's Permian forecast of 6.8 million b/d for 2026 (+3%) conflicts with Texas's own flat prints, which are only about +0.5% on 2025. The Permian figure includes New Mexico. National growth is attributed mostly to the Federal Gulf, where the new projects added about 0.2 million b/d in 1H26. That growth does not count toward Texas. A national record therefore does not imply Texas above 5.8. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=68125 - [2026-09-10] The Permian growth story rests on WTI averaging $84 through August. Even so, Texas fell in Jun–Jul, and the lag from price to output is long. The Dallas Fed capex index only turned positive in Q1 2026 (from the earlier report). The January STEO had forecast roughly flat output and a Permian decline in 2027, and the planning cycle still reflects that low-price period. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=68125 - [2026-01-22] A comparable earlier EIA view held Permian output flat at 6.6 million b/d for 2026, with the national decline concentrated in the Lower 48. Producers budgeted for about $52 WTI, which is the capital base for H2 2026 output. A late-2026 jump would need a quick response by operators to the price spike. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67045 - [2026-01-30] EIA's Petroleum Supply Monthly has had disruptions this year, including a delayed and revised October 2025 release. The December 2026 data are expected around the end of February 2027, ahead of the March 31 close. The schedule is approximate and may shift. The delay risk is small relative to the close date but not zero. https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/monthly/notice.php - [2026-10-14] The EIA's reports page says the Petroleum Supply Monthly comes out on the last business day of the month. It says all monthly release dates are approximate and may shift. https://www.eia.gov/reports/upcoming.php - [2026-10-14] A resolution technicality: the contract names the Texas Field Production series without specifying monthly or annual. The annual page shows 2025 at 5,761 and its next release as 8/31/2027, after close. A Yes needs the monthly 2026 average to exceed 5,800 on whatever data are available at resolution, and rounding or revisions could matter. The 5,800 line sits only 39 kb/d above 2025's 5,761, but the 2025 annual may itself be revised. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_crpdn_adc_mbblpd_a.htm BOTTOM LINE: The No case is arithmetic and inertia. Texas must average a record 5,856 kb/d for five consecutive months, but it has been flat at 5.73–5.85 million b/d since March and slipped in Jun–Jul. National growth is mostly Federal Gulf output and the Permian's New Mexico side, and drilling responds to price with a long lag. Status quo or a modest late rise leaves 2026 at about 5.76–5.78 million b/d, below the line. NOT FOUND: a Texas-specific EIA forecast for H2 2026; August 2026 EIA Texas data; a confirmed Petroleum Supply Monthly calendar for Nov 2026–Feb 2027; any explanation of the 10/30/2026 release-date stamp on the EIA monthly table.