Will Idaho’s potato production for 2026 be above 138.38 million cwt?

- [2026-11-10] The first NASS publication of Idaho's 2026 potato production should be the November Crop Production report. ESMIS lists it for Nov 10 2026 at 12:00 PM, which is the trading-close date. Both sources say the preliminary potato forecast comes in that report. Any sooner release would be a surprise. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/publication/crop-production - [2026-10-14] Nothing on Idaho potato production yet. The Quick Stats 2026 Idaho overview (data as of Oct 4) shows 300,000 acres planted and 299,500 harvested, with yield and production blank. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Quick_Stats/Ag_Overview/stateOverview.php?state=Idaho&year=2026 - [2026-10-09] The October Crop Production report was released. Potatoes are not forecast in the Sept/Oct reports. The Sept report says potato acres are subject to revision in the November report. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796056/crop0926.pdf - [2026-09-11] Sept Crop Production put the US 2026 potato planted area at 873,000 acres and the harvested area at 867,600. It carries no Idaho production forecast. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796056/crop0926.pdf - [2026-06-30] The USDA acreage report puts Idaho 2026 planted area at 300,000 acres, down 5% from 315,000 in 2025. The Idaho Potato Commission's own field-level count is 298,915. https://www.idahofb.org/news-room/posts/idaho-potato-acres-drop-by-5/ - [2026-09-29] Capital Press reports quality is solid but yields are down. The IPC's Travis Blacker said "Yields are down. We're not yet sure by how much." Causes cited are frost (late April, late May, June), heat, warm nights, wildfire smoke and low specific gravity. A Pleasant Valley Potato manager estimated yields 50–60 cwt/acre below 2025's 440. Some growers in the west and east said yields were below average or just below the long-term average. https://capitalpress.com/2026/09/29/weather-shrinks-2026-idaho-potato-yields-butquality-remains-high/ - [~2026-10-01] FreshPlaza reports eastern Idaho yields down by up to 20%, with smaller sizes, water shortages and heat. One Oakley grower expects yields down 5–10%. https://www.freshplaza.com/north-america/article/9879009/idaho-potato-yields-fall-up-to-20-due-to-water-shortage/ - [2026-09 summary] The NASS Potatoes 2025 Summary (Sept 2026) shows Idaho 2025 production at 139,953 thousand cwt, i.e. 139.95M, on 314,500 harvested acres (445 cwt/acre). The 138.38M threshold appears to be the earlier 2025 figure; one secondary site cites it, and I did not find it in a NASS source. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Todays_Reports/reports/pots0926.pdf - [Arithmetic, mine] Harvested area of about 299,500 acres needs a yield of about 462 cwt/acre to exceed 138.38M. Idaho's yield was 440–445 in 2025 and 430 in 2024. A yield 50–60 cwt below 2025 would give roughly 115–120M cwt. Even a 5–10% yield drop would give roughly 125–133M. - [2026-07] The ERS July outlook assumed near-trend US yields and "generally favorable growing conditions". That assumption predates the frost, heat and yield reports above. https://www.ers.usda.gov/media/29403/vgs-379.pdf?v=70363 BOTTOM LINE: The first official figure is due Nov 10, the same day trading closes, and nothing official on Idaho's 2026 production exists yet. Acreage is down about 5%, and every field report points to yields below 2025's 440–445 cwt/acre, so the crop looks likely to come in below 138.38M. The main risk to that view is a NASS survey yield that is much better than anecdotes suggest. NOT FOUND: A NASS or IPC Idaho yield or production estimate for 2026. NASS Idaho office press releases for Oct–Nov 2026. A NASS source showing 138.38M as the original 2025 Idaho figure. Any confirmation that the Nov 10 release time holds at the close.

- [2026-09-25] NASS's final 2025 estimate for Idaho is 139.953M cwt, on 314.5k harvested acres at 445 cwt/acre. The threshold of 138.38M matches the earlier 2025 estimate that appeared in the June 2026 Potato Stocks table, so the strike is roughly "last year's crop." Source: https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Todays_Reports/reports/pots0926.pdf - [2026-09-29] Recent Idaho crop history: 143.3M cwt (2023), 135.2M (2024) and 139.95M (2025). Yields were 435, 430 and 445 cwt/acre. So 2023 and 2025 exceeded 138.38M and 2024 did not. Sources: https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Todays_Reports/reports/pots0926.pdf and https://capitalpress.com/2026/09/29/weather-shrinks-2026-idaho-potato-yields-butquality-remains-high/ - [2026-07-xx] The June 2026 Acreage report put Idaho planted area at 300,000 acres, down 5% from 315,000. Harvested area is listed at 299,500, which is 15,000 fewer than 2025. At 138.38M cwt, the yield needed on 299.5k acres is about 462 cwt/acre. That is well above every recent Idaho yield and about 17 cwt above 2025's record-like 445. Sources: https://www.nass.usda.gov/Quick_Stats/Ag_Overview/stateOverview.php?state=Idaho&year=2026 and https://www.idahofb.org/news-room/posts/idaho-potato-acres-drop-by-5/ - [2026-09-29] The Idaho Potato Commission counts 298,915 planted acres, about 13k fewer than last year. Its VP says yields are down and it is "not yet sure by how much." One grower-shipper put yields 50–60 sacks per acre below 2025. Others cited frost, summer heat, warm nights, smoke and low specific gravity. Source: https://capitalpress.com/2026/09/29/weather-shrinks-2026-idaho-potato-yields-butquality-remains-high/ - [2026-10-01] Growers reported yields 5–10% lower (Oakley) and about 20% lower (Aberdeen), with smaller tubers. Idaho declared a statewide drought in April, and reservoirs are at record lows. A 5–10% yield cut on about 299.5k acres implies roughly 120–127M cwt. These are anecdotes, not survey data. Source: https://www.freshplaza.com/north-america/article/9879009/idaho-potato-yields-fall-up-to-20-due-to-water-shortage/ - [2026-09-29] A secondary report (potatoes.news, citing Capital Press) says the state expects its smallest potato crop since 2011. I could not trace this claim to a primary source. Source: https://potatoes.news/usa-idaho-plants-298915-acres-of-potatoes-as-frost-heat-and-drought-cut-2026-yields/ - [2026-07] The USDA ERS Vegetables and Pulses Outlook, written before the harvest, expected US yields near trend (about 465 cwt/acre). It put US production at 396.8–403.4M cwt, down 2–4% from 2025's 412.9M. It said Idaho accounts for about half of the national acreage cut. This predates the reported yield problems. Source: https://www.ers.usda.gov/media/29403/vgs-379.pdf?v=72980 - [2026-07] The same ERS outlook says USDA will publish the first 2026 potato production forecast in the NASS November Crop Production report. The August and September Crop Production reports carried no potato production forecast. The exact November release date is not confirmed; it typically comes in the second week of November. Past first estimates had been published by around Nov 8–12, and this market closes Nov 10. Source: https://www.ers.usda.gov/media/29403/vgs-379.pdf?v=72980 - [2024-11] Precedent for the first estimate: the Nov 2024 forecast for Idaho was 135.235M cwt (430 cwt/acre on 314.5k acres), and the January 2025 summary kept it at 135M. First-estimate and final numbers are often close, but the 2025 crop moved from 138.38M to 139.95M in later revisions. Sources: https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Idaho/Publications/Census_Press_Releases/2024/CP11_1.pdf and https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Idaho/Publications/Census_Press_Releases/2025/CP01.pdf - [2026-06-18] Idaho held 20M cwt of potatoes in storage on June 1, 2026, which was 14% of the 2025 crop. That compares with 22M (16%) a year earlier. It is context on old-crop supply, not an indicator of the 2026 crop. Source: https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Todays_Reports/reports/post0626.pdf - [Base rate] Idaho production has been at or above 138.38M cwt in only about 2 of the last 3 years, and with 5% fewer acres this year the bar is high. The 2023 crop was 143.3M on 329.5k harvested acres (435 cwt/acre). Sources: https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Idaho/Publications/Census_Press_Releases/2025/CP01.pdf and https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Todays_Reports/reports/pots0926.pdf BOTTOM LINE: Acreage is down about 5%, so Idaho would need a record yield of roughly 462 cwt/acre to beat 138.38M. Every field report points to yields below 2025's 445, which points to a sub-threshold crop. The main uncertainty is that NASS's first estimate is survey-based and has not yet been published. NOT FOUND: The exact date of the November 2026 Crop Production release, any published NASS/analyst forecast of Idaho 2026 production in cwt, and any pre-harvest NASS yield survey for Idaho. I also found no other-venue odds, which I was told not to report on this contract.

YES means: USDA NASS's first published 2026 Idaho potato production estimate, expected in the Nov 10 Crop Production report, is above 138.38 million cwt. This is the strongest case I could build for YES. The evidence is thin, and the reasoning below is arithmetic on the facts I found. - [2026-10-14] **The single most likely path to YES** is a NASS survey yield of about 462 cwt/acre or more on about 299.5k harvested acres. That is about 4% above 2025's record 445 cwt/acre (see the NASS Idaho 2025 overview, which also shows 139.95M cwt production). Prerequisites: - NASS's objective-yield and farmer-survey numbers must come in far above grower anecdotes. - Late-harvest or storage-dug fields must outperform the early digs. - The NASS state overview, as of Oct 12, still shows no 2026 yield or production figure. The 299,500 harvested acres is just the June-based figure and can be revised in November. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Quick_Stats/Ag_Overview/stateOverview.php?state=IDAHO - [2026-09-29] **The anecdotes are not uniform.** The East Idaho News piece gives the mildest grower figure: Oakley's Randy Hardy sees a 5–10% yield decline. Aberdeen's Ritchey Toevs, a Lamb Weston grower, reports about 20% down, so the range is wide and the farm-level samples are small. Even Hardy's mild case implies about 423 cwt/acre (445 less 5%), or roughly 127M cwt. That is still below the threshold, so this bullet shows the best-case anecdote, not a YES. https://www.eastidahonews.com/2026/09/eastern-idaho-spud-harvest-underway-as-farmers-grapple-with-drought-heat/ - [2026-09-29] **Weather relief and variety mix.** Capital Press, via PotatoPro (Oct 5), carries three softening points: monsoon rains in the second half of August "helped tamp the heat down," September weather was favorable for digging, and Clearwater Russet yields look average. Hammett (southwest) quality is described as average or good. Yields are "below average" there, but the same piece calls the east's red and Umatilla yields only "just below the long-term average." These are variety- and region-specific, and Burbank is described as down sharply. https://www.potatopro.com/news/2026/idaho-potato-harvest-shows-solid-quality-lower-yields-2026 - [2026-09-29] **The IPC itself has not quantified the loss.** Its vice president says only that "We're not yet sure by how much." No official estimate of the shortfall exists, so a smaller-than-feared drop remains possible. https://capitalpress.com/2026/09/29/weather-shrinks-2026-idaho-potato-yields-butquality-remains-high/ - [2026-09-25] **NASS can revise upward after the first print, which helps YES only through the first print.** The 138.38M strike was the earlier 2025 number. The Potatoes 2025 Summary shows later revision to 139.95M on 445 cwt/acre. NASS's 2025 estimate rose after the first print, so NASS survey yields have previously exceeded early expectations. That matters only if the Nov 10 first print for 2026 also surprises high. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Todays_Reports/reports/pots0926.pdf - [2026-10-07] **The one new hard data series cuts against YES.** AMS shipping-point data show Idaho potato shipments (trucks plus export) of 4.345M cwt through Oct 6, versus 5.164M cwt at the same point last season. That is about 16% behind. This is early-season pace and not production, so it may partly reflect a later or slower harvest. The Oct 13 report, however, shows Idaho at 4.807M against 5.788M, still about 17% behind. A YES case would need to dismiss this as a timing gap that closes in storage-fed shipments. https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/fvdidnop.pdf - [2026-10-13] **Market signals show no glut, which weakens any big-crop story.** Terminal prices for Idaho Burbank cartons are high, for example 40s–50s at $40–42 in Boston and 100s at $28–30. That is consistent with tight supply, not abundant supply. It is a price signal only. https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/fvdidnop.pdf - [2026-09-29] **The acreage arithmetic.** If NASS raises harvested acres from 299.5k to the IPC-plus-seed level, there is little room. The IPC's own planted count is lower (298,915), so an upward acreage revision is unlikely. Reaching 138.38M at 445 cwt/acre needs about 311k harvested acres, which is above even 2025's 314.5k minus the 15k cut. So YES depends almost entirely on yield. https://capitalpress.com/2026/09/29/weather-shrinks-2026-idaho-potato-yields-butquality-remains-high/ - [2026-07] **The pre-season forecast is the strongest institutional pro-yield input.** ERS's July outlook assumed trend yields and generally favorable conditions, with only brief frost in parts of Idaho. At trend, US yields would be about 465 cwt/acre. If Idaho's yield were at that level, 299.5k acres would give about 139M cwt, narrowly above the strike. The outlook predates the heat, drought and smoke reports. https://www.ers.usda.gov/media/29403/vgs-379.pdf?v=70363 BOTTOM LINE: YES needs NASS to print an Idaho yield of about 462 cwt/acre or higher, above 2025's record 445. That is against every grower report, the Idaho shipment pace (about 16% behind last year), and the drought and heat damage. The only support for YES is a large gap between anecdote and the NASS survey, plus ERS's pre-season trend-yield view; I found no evidence of that gap. NOT FOUND: Any NASS, IPC or analyst estimate of the 2026 Idaho yield or production in cwt. Any Idaho harvest-completion percentage from NASS crop progress. Any source reporting an above-average Idaho yield statewide. The Nov 10 release itself, which has not happened yet.

YES means: USDA NASS's first published 2026 Idaho potato production estimate is above 138.38 million cwt. - [2026-10-13] Shipments and prices point to a short crop. AMS Market News shows Idaho tray-pack shipments of 4,807k cwt this season to date, against 5,788k a year ago (about 17% lower). Spot cartons are $22–24 and demand for 40–80 count exceeds supply. Shipments are early-season, so this is a weak proxy, but it points the same way as the yield anecdotes. https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/fvdidnop.pdf - [2026-10-05] PotatoPro's republication of the Capital Press story gives the mechanism behind the low yields. Russet Burbank, Idaho's main processing and fresh variety, is reported "down substantially" from 2025. Below-average specific gravity and warm nights are cutting weight. Only Clearwater Russet looks average. A west-side farmer reports yields below average and heavy smoke damage. Frost in late April, late May and June hurt plants that had already emerged: "all of the fields came back but they were never the same." Most of the crop is in the Burbank and Umatilla class, so the damage is broad, not isolated. https://www.potatopro.com/news/2026/idaho-potato-harvest-shows-solid-quality-lower-yields-2026 - [2026-10-05] The IPC acreage figure of 298,915 is planted area, and NASS harvested area is already 299,500. So acreage cannot rescue the outcome. The strike therefore needs a yield of about 462 cwt/acre, which would be an all-time Idaho record. Every field source says the opposite direction. https://www.potatopro.com/news/2026/idaho-potato-harvest-shows-solid-quality-lower-yields-2026 - [2026-10-08] Potato News Today says the Idaho final result "is still unknown". It cautions that grower interviews are not a statewide estimate. Markon (Oct 5) reports limited supplies of large Idaho potatoes, consistent with a smaller size profile. The caution helps YES only if NASS's survey differs from the anecdotes. https://www.potatonewstoday.com/2026/10/08/big-potatoes-tighter-choices-us-harvest-advances-while-large-russets-remain-under-pressure/ - [2026-09-16] AgWest Farm Credit says the 2026 US crop is expected to be smaller than 2025. Idaho summer heat is pressuring yields, and Russet shipping-point prices are well above 2025. Lenders and market analysts are not pricing in a record yield. https://www.agwestfc.com/education-and-resources/industry-and-economic-insights/industry-insights/potatoes - [2026-10-02] Price signal: USDA shipping-point Idaho Russet Norkotah cartons are $21, up 154% year on year and 75% above the 5-year median. A year earlier, in a record-yield year, the price was $8.25. Markets rarely rally this hard when supply is at or above last year's level. https://therussetreport.com/origin/idaho - [2026-09-19] Deadline arithmetic works in favour of NO. ESMIS lists the November Crop Production release for Nov 10 at 12:00 PM, the same day trading closes. If the release slips even one day, no first estimate exists by the close, and the market would not resolve YES by then. A YES needs both an on-time release and an estimate above the strike. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/publication/crop-production - [2026-09-11] NASS has again withheld Idaho potato production in the Aug–Oct reports. The August report names Idaho as a likely record-yield state for some other crop, which is not potatoes. The ERS July outlook that expected near-trend yields predates the frost and heat reports and is stale. https://www.ers.usda.gov/media/29403/vgs-379.pdf?v=72980 - [2026-09] Resolution technicality. The strike (138.38M) is below NASS's final 2025 figure of 139.953M, and a secondary site (potatoinsights, ~Aug) cites 138.38M as 2025 production. The question concerns only the first 2026 estimate. Later revisions are excluded, so a late upward revision cannot help YES. A November forecast is also commonly conservative in a stressed year. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Todays_Reports/reports/pots0926.pdf - [2026-09-30] KSL and East Idaho News report the statewide drought declaration in April, with growers cutting water use. Their stories describe reduced planting and expected yields below last year. https://www.ksl.com/article/51630326/eastern-idaho-spud-harvest-underway-as-farmers-grapple-with-drought-heat BOTTOM LINE: A YES needs a record yield of about 462 cwt/acre (versus 445 in 2025) in a year of frost, heat, smoke, drought, falling shipments and soaring prices, and the first estimate lands on the day trading closes. Status quo and the evidence both favour NO. NOT FOUND: Any NASS or IPC statewide Idaho 2026 yield or production estimate. A confirmed Nov 10 release time. Any trade estimate of 2026 Idaho production in cwt. A primary source for the claim that 2026 is the smallest Idaho crop since 2011.