Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $6.39 by Dec 31?

- [2026-10-13] The latest Ornn OCPI-H200 settle is $5.51/GPU-hr. It is up 5.2% on the day, 9.3% over 7 days and 25.8% over 30 days. The 30-day range is $4.38–$6.23, with a median of $5.22. Since Jul 14 the range is $4.24–$6.23, with a median of $4.86. https://data.ornn.com/markets/h200 - [2026-10-12] Recent daily settles: Oct 5 $5.23, Oct 6 $5.04, Oct 7 $5.29, Oct 8 $5.65, Oct 9 $5.70, Oct 10 $5.91, Oct 11 $5.61, Oct 12 $5.24. Day-to-day moves are volatile, around ±5–7%. https://data.ornn.com/markets/h200 - [2026-10-13] The index has not reached $6.39 in the public window. The three-month high is $6.23, and October's high so far is $6.23. The strike sits about 16% above the current print and about 2.6% above the three-month high. https://data.ornn.com/markets/h200 - [2026-10-13] Monthly pattern: August month-end was $4.42 (average $4.70), September month-end was $5.58 (+26.2%, average $4.88), and October to date averages $5.61. The trend since September is up. https://data.ornn.com/markets/h200 - [2026-10-14] The dashboard named in the rules (dashboard.ornnai.com) renders only the H100 value, $3.17/hr (+17.84%), in my fetch. The H200 tab did not load. The data.ornn.com public page is Ornn's own published OCPI-H200 series, which I treated as the nearest proxy. https://dashboard.ornnai.com/ - [2026-10-13] Other OCPI prints on the same day: H100 $3.17, B200 $7.83, A100 $0.96. H100 jumped from $2.65 on Oct 11 to $3.17 on Oct 13, so the whole complex is moving up. https://data.ornn.com/markets/h200 - [2026-10-01] Nebius raised its H200 on-demand list price from $4.50 to $5.40 (+20%) effective Oct 1. On Oct 7, AWS raised EC2 Capacity Blocks prices by about 15%. Both are supply-tightening signals. https://uvik.net/blog/gpu-price-index/ - [2026-10-07] Uvik's list-price median for the H200 across 14 providers is $5.70, with a range of $3.99–$10.60. Separately, getdeploying's median on-demand price on Oct 14 is $4.62, up about 3% over 90 days. These are list prices, not the Ornn transaction index. https://uvik.net/blog/gpu-price-index/ - [2026-09-29] ICE Futures US published an exchange notice for "Ornn Compute 4Q2026" futures. This confirms cleared futures on the OCPI exist for Q4 2026. I did not read the spec or find the contract prices. https://data.ornn.com/markets/h200 - [2026-07-14] Kalshi launched compute forward curves referencing Ornn. A third-party note from about that date put H200 forward-curve levels at roughly $3.1–4.3, when the spot index was much lower. https://www.kineticalpha.com/research/compute-forward-curves - [2026-10-14] Silicon Data, a different index, shows its neo-cloud H200 reading at $3.35 as of Oct 12. It is far below Ornn's index, so the two series are not comparable. https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index/h200 BOTTOM LINE: The Ornn H200 index is at $5.51 and rising (+25.8% in 30 days). It is volatile at about ±5% a day, and it has never printed above $6.23 in the last three months. Reaching a print above $6.39 by Dec 31 needs about +16% from here, which is plausible given the momentum and the daily noise. The rules also say "above $6.39 by Dec 31", which could be read as any print before then or as the value on that date. Check the exact reading on the Kalshi contract. NOT FOUND: Ornn's H200 value on the dashboard.ornnai.com page itself (the page rendered only H100). The ICE 4Q2026 futures settlement prices. The Kalshi H200 forward-curve levels as of today. Any news in the last 7 days explaining the October rise.

- [2026-10-13] The latest OCPI-H200 settle is $5.51/GPU-hr, which is $0.88 (about 16%) below the $6.39 strike. The 30-day range is $4.38–$6.23 and the median is $5.22. The 7-day change is +9.3% and the 30-day change is +25.8%. https://data.ornn.com/markets/h200 - [2026-10-13] Monthly OCPI-H200 averages and ranges: Aug average $4.70 (low–high $4.24–$5.44), Sep average $4.88 ($4.38–$5.60), Oct to date average $5.61 ($5.04–$6.23). Month-end settles were $4.42 (Aug) and $5.58 (Sep). https://data.ornn.com/markets/h200 - [2026-10-13] I read the full public 3-month daily series (Jul 14 to Oct 13, 92 days). The all-time public high is $6.23 (Oct 2). No settle reached $6.39, so $6.39 has not been exceeded in this window. Only Oct 2–3 settled above $6.00 ($6.23, $6.05). https://data.ornn.com/api/public-index/gpu/H200/index-history - [2026-10-13] Volatility from the same series: daily moves of 5–13% are common, for example +13.0% on Sep 30 and +12.6% on Sep 16. Over this window the series ranged $4.24–$6.23 and mean-reverted. Prior swings: $4.24 (Aug 26) to $5.60 (Sep 18) to $4.38 (Sep 13) to $6.23 (Oct 2). A single daily print at or above $6.40 would need roughly +16% from here. https://data.ornn.com/api/public-index/gpu/H200/index-history - [2026-10-13] Resolution mechanics: Ornn publishes one settle per day at 4:00 PM ET. The rule says "above $6.39 by Dec 31", which reads as any reported value, though the Kalshi contract wording should be checked for point-in-time versus any-time. Settles are rounded to two decimals, so $6.40 or higher is needed. https://data.ornn.com/markets/h200 - [2026-10-13] Other Ornn GPUs on the same date: H100 $3.17 (up from $2.52–$2.92 in early Oct), B200 $7.83, A100 $0.96. Another snapshot shows the H100 three-month range at $2.46–$3.17. The whole Hopper complex is rising now. https://data.ornn.com/markets/h200 - [2026-10-01] Nebius raised on-demand prices on 1 Oct 2026: H100 from $3.85 to $4.50 (+17%) and H200 from $4.50 to $5.40 (+20%). Uvik says rental prices rose during 2026 after falling in 2025. The SemiAnalysis H100 one-year contract index rose 38% from Oct 2025 to Mar 2026. https://uvik.net/blog/gpu-price-index/ - [2026-10-14] Outside list-price views show rising H200 prices. The getdeploying on-demand median is $4.62, up about 3% over 90 days and about 27% over 12 months. The Uvik list median is $5.70 (Oct 7). These are list prices, not transaction indices, and sit below or near Ornn's level. https://getdeploying.com/gpus/nvidia-h200 - [2026-10-12] Silicon Data's H200 neo-cloud index reads about $3.35 (Oct 12), well below Ornn's $5.24–$5.51. The two indices measure different things, so Ornn is the more volatile and higher one. https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index/h200 - [2026-10-04] Kalshi's compute markets launched in March 2026 and list A100, H100, H200, B200 and RTX 5090 contracts, with weekly, monthly-average, year-end and up/down formats. The series is only about 7 months old, so there is no meaningful resolution track record. Early coverage reported a B200 drop of 31% in a month (from $6.11 to $4.22). https://www.pokernews.com/prediction-markets/news/2026/08/kalshi-s-new-ai-compute-markets-explained-52156.htm - [2026-09-29] ICE Futures US issued an exchange notice for Ornn Compute futures (4Q2026). Futures and a forward curve exist, but the forward curve is paywalled and I could not see it. https://www.ice.com/publicdocs/futures_us/exchange_notices/ICE_Futures_US_Exchange_Notice_ORNN_Compute_4Q2026_20260929.pdf - [2026-10-14] The dashboard.ornnai.com page rendered only an H100 widget ($3.17/hr, +17.84%). The data.ornn.com pages and API appear to carry the same OCPI figures. https://dashboard.ornnai.com/ BOTTOM LINE: Over the last 92 daily settles the H200 index never reached $6.39 (high $6.23). It is now $5.51 after a sharp rally, with an upward Hopper pricing trend but strong mean reversion. Reaching the strike needs a new 3-month high of at least about 16% above the current level, sometime in the roughly 11 weeks to Dec 31, in an index with 5–13% daily moves. NOT FOUND: Ornn H200 history before Jul 14, 2026. Forward-curve marks for Dec 2026. Any expert forecast or poll for the H200 price. Kalshi's resolution track record on these contracts. Confirmation of whether the contract resolves on a single date's value or on any print before Dec 31.

YES means: Ornn's H200 compute price (OCPI-H200, USD/GPU-hr) is reported above $6.39, i.e. at least $6.40 after rounding, at some point on or before Dec 31, 2026. This assumes the contract counts any print and not only the Dec 31 value. - [2026-10-13] The Ornn API series shows the highs rising each month: $5.62 on Jul 31, $5.44 on Aug 20, $5.60 on Sep 18 and $6.23 on Oct 2. The Sep 11 to Oct 13 lows also rose, from about $4.38 to $4.62 to $5.04. The strike is only about 2.6% above the Oct 2 high. A single print is enough if the contract counts any print. https://data.ornn.com/api/public-index/gpu/H200/index-history - [2026-10-13] The two most recent runs reached the $6 area from low bases. Sep 29 to Oct 2 went $4.94, $5.58, $5.96, $6.23. Oct 5 to Oct 10 went $5.04 to $5.91 in five days. The index can move about 20% in a few days. The $5.51 print needs +16%, which is within recent episodes. https://data.ornn.com/api/public-index/gpu/H200/index-history - [2026-06-15] FutureSearch noted the H200 oscillating at $3.47–$3.78 in mid-June. The index is up roughly 50–60% since then. The Jul 14 forward-curve note put H200 at about $3.1–4.3. Forwards were well below spot as it later rose, so the market has repeatedly underestimated upside. https://futuresearch.ai/app/p/a/kalshi-kxh200ms-27jan-jun23 - [2026-10-01] Wells Fargo, via roic.ai, said AWS reserved-GPU prices rose 20% in July and a further 15% was planned for Oct 7. This would be the fourth consecutive quarterly hike. It puts H100/H200 and B200/B300 pricing up 40–75% year to date. The roic.ai page returned 403 on fetch, so this is from the search snippet. A Cryptobriefing item says the 15% figure came from an X post and AWS had not confirmed it. https://www.roic.ai/news/aws-hikes-gpu-prices-again-as-ai-demand-stays-strong-10-01-2026 - [2026-06-29] The Next Web reported that AWS attributes its hikes to supply and demand, and that Business Insider linked the timing to the AI memory shortage. Tight HBM supply is a structural reason Hopper rental prices could keep rising into Q4. https://thenextweb.com/news/aws-gpu-prices-increase-memory-shortage - [2026-10-14] Getdeploying lists H200 hyperscaler on-demand at $10.85 against GPU clouds at $5.40. Thunder Compute's comparison shows H200 list prices up to $10.85. If neocloud capacity sells out and buyers spill to pricier tiers, Ornn's transaction average could be pulled up. This is a mechanism, not evidence that it is happening. https://getdeploying.com/gpu-price-trends - [2026-10-12] Other Ornn lines, per colleagues' Oct 13 snapshot, show H100 at $3.17 and B200 at $7.83. Silicon Data's H200 reading of $3.43 on Oct 10 is far below Ornn's. Ornn's index is the more volatile and thinly traded one, so noise adds to the upside tail. https://intuitionlabs.ai/articles/nvidia-ai-gpu-pricing-guide - [2026-05-19] The ICE futures would settle on the arithmetic average of daily Ornn values. Ornn is listed on Bloomberg and is the reference for ICE, Kalshi and Architect. This gives it an institutional profile. Heavier hedging flows could add demand pressure around the index. This is a weak point. https://aiweekly.co/alerts/ornn-raises-33m-led-by-a16z-to-build-gpu-compute-futures-market - [2026-10-13] Path to YES: the Hopper tightness (Nebius +20% on Oct 1, the AWS Q4 hike) carries into Q4. Neocloud H200 prices step up another 10–15% from the September base. One daily print then spikes past $6.39, as Oct 2 came within $0.16 of doing. With about 11 weeks (about 79 daily prints) left, only one print is needed. The prerequisite is that the contract counts any print rather than the Dec 31 value. https://data.ornn.com/api/public-index/gpu/H200/index-history BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES case is momentum plus volatility. Monthly highs have risen for four months. Q4 list-price hikes by AWS and Nebius point the same way. The index sits only about 2.6% below its prior peak and has had repeated 15–20% swings within a week, so about 79 daily prints give many chances to clear $6.39. The case is weaker if the contract is read as the Dec 31 value only, because the series mean-reverts and has never printed above $6.23. NOT FOUND: Ornn H200 on dashboard.ornnai.com itself. Dec 2026 forward or Kalshi strike prices for the H200. ICE 4Q2026 settlement levels. Official AWS confirmation of the Oct 7 hike. Any news explaining the Oct 2 spike. Data before Jul 14 from the Ornn API.

YES means: the Ornn H200 compute-per-hour value (USD index, dashboard.ornnai.com) is above $6.39 (i.e. $6.40 or more after two-decimal rounding) as reported by Dec 31, 2026. - [2026-10-14] Full 92-day public series fetched. The index peaked at $6.23 on Oct 2 and fell to $5.04 within four days, a 19% drop. Every prior rally in the window reversed: $5.62 on Jul 31 fell to $4.36 on Aug 3, $5.44 on Aug 20 fell to $4.24 on Aug 26, and $5.60 on Sep 18 fell to $4.62 on Sep 27. The index reached $5.9 or higher only on Oct 1–3 and Oct 10, and every attempt stalled below $6.39. https://data.ornn.com/api/public-index/gpu/H200/index-history - [2026-10-14] The Oct 12 snapshot of the H200 page showed 7-day change +0.2% and 30-day change +11.7% (from $4.69). That is far weaker than the +9.3% and +25.8% a colleague read from the Oct 13 page. The apparent momentum comes from one day, Oct 13, and from the $4.38 trough on Sep 13. https://data.ornn.com/markets/h200 - [2026-06-23] FutureSearch's note says the H200 index was oscillating at $3.47–$3.78 in mid-June. It also says the index spiked to a daily $7.01 in May, but the May monthly average was only $4.55. So the index has spiked above $6.39 before (the May high is outside the 3-month public window), and those spikes did not persist. The same note argues the H200 is a depreciating, two-generation-old asset. That cuts both ways: the rally from about $3.6 in June to $5.5 in October shows the level is unstable, but it also shows reversion is common. https://futuresearch.ai/app/p/a/kalshi-kxh200ms-27jan-jun23 - [2026-10-14] Rule technicality: the rule says "above $6.39 by Dec 31", with no stated observation time. Earlier Kalshi H200 contracts were explicit, e.g. "above $3.50 at 4 PM ET on June 19". If this contract resolves on the Dec 31 print rather than any print, a spike earlier in the period does not count. The index would need to be at or above $6.40 on that one day, after a spike that has historically faded. Ornn settles once a day at 4:00 PM ET, so there are no intraday prints to rely on. https://octagonai.co/markets/financials/industries/week-25-price-of-nvidia-s-h200-compute-at-end-of-week/ - [2026-10-14] Ornn describes the OCPI as a volume-weighted, winsorized average of transacted prices. Winsorizing clips outliers, which structurally caps single-day spikes. In the 92-day window no day settled at or above $6.39, even though Nebius list prices and AWS Capacity Block prices rose. https://data.ornn.com/markets/h200 - [2026-10-14] Retail list prices point to a lower level. getdeploying's median on-demand H200 price is $4.62, up only about 3% in 90 days. Thunder Compute's October table shows most specialist clouds at $3.99–$4.59, and only CoreWeave ($6.31), the hyperscalers and Nebius ($5.40) at or above $5.40. A $6.40 index would sit above almost every neocloud list price, since the index is built from neocloud trades. https://getdeploying.com/gpus/nvidia-h200 and https://www.thundercompute.com/blog/nvidia-h200-pricing - [2026-10-14] Spheron's dedicated H200 is $5.51/hr and its spot is $3.32/hr (updated Oct 3). Gpuperhour shows the cheapest H200 at $3.43/hr, and Ori's H200 SXM at $3.50 against a 30-day average of $2.71. Supply at the low end remains ample. That tends to pull the transaction average back down. https://www.spheron.network/gpu-rental/h200/ and https://gpuperhour.com/ - [2026-10-14] Ornn's own marketing notes the B200–H200 spread widening on Blackwell demand and calls it a depreciation signal for older chips. Rubin is expected to ship in H2 2026 per the FutureSearch note. The structural direction for H200 over the next 11 weeks is flat to down, with Dec 31 holiday-period demand likely no higher. https://tomtunguz.com/b200-gpu-pricing-spot-market-model-releases/ - [2026-10-14] ICE futures on the OCPI use Asian-style settlement, an average of daily values. Ornn's own hedging design therefore smooths single-day spikes. Cleared futures and hedgers add supply-side stability to a thin spot index, though that is my inference rather than a documented effect. https://aiweekly.co/alerts/ornn-raises-33m-led-by-a16z-to-build-gpu-compute-futures-market - [2026-10-14] Deadline arithmetic: from $5.51 the index needs about +16% to reach $6.40. About 11 weeks remain (about 78 daily prints). The last 92 days produced zero prints at or above $6.39, with a high of $6.23. The strike is the highest level seen since May. Resolution is also vulnerable to the data source: the named dashboard.ornnai.com page rendered only H100 in a colleague's fetch. The market says no data resolves to No. https://dashboard.ornnai.com/ BOTTOM LINE: The strongest NO case is mean reversion. Every rally in the 92-day window has reversed, the $6.23 peak sits below the strike, and list prices and spot offers are well below $6.40. If the contract measures the Dec 31 print rather than any print, the index needs a sustained +16% move that has not happened since May. NOT FOUND: Ornn H200 values before Jul 14 beyond FutureSearch's secondary mention of the May $7.01 high. The exact Kalshi contract wording on any-time versus Dec 31-only. The ICE 4Q2026 settlement prices and the Kalshi forward-curve levels for December. Any explanation of the Oct 13 jump. The OCPI methodology page, which I did not open.