Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year ending in November 2026?

- [2026-10-14] BLS released the September 2026 CPI today. All items rose 0.6% SA, and the 12-month rate is 3.7% NSA, up from 3.4% in August. Core CPI is 2.6% y/y. Energy is +20.4% y/y, and gasoline rose 9.1% in the month. Today's print is above the Dow Jones consensus of 3.6% and the Cleveland Fed nowcast of 3.60%. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm - [2026-10-14] Before the release, consensus was 0.6% m/m and 3.6% y/y headline, with core at 0.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y. Some trackers had about 3.7%. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/13/september-consumer-price-index-inflation.html - [2026-10-13] The Cleveland Fed nowcast (pre-September-print) puts October 2026 CPI at 3.63% y/y and 0.27% m/m. It projects Q4 CPI at a 4.50% annualized rate. The nowcast has no November y/y figure yet and had not yet absorbed today's 3.7% print. https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting - [2026-09-11] The August CPI was 3.4% y/y, with an index level of 334.980. It was 3.4% in July and 3.5% in June. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm - [2026-07/08] The 2026 y/y path was: Jan 2.4, Feb 2.4, Mar 3.3, Apr 3.8, May 4.2 (peak), Jun 3.5, Jul 3.4. Energy drove the spring spike, with energy +10.9% m/m in March. The BLS archive shows these figures. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_08122026.htm - [2026-10-12] Market commentary cites a "Hormuz-driven energy cost surge". It also says the Fed hiked unanimously about three weeks earlier and that 16 of 18 officials signaled more hikes. I could not verify these Fed claims at a primary source. The next FOMC is Oct 27–28. https://www.clearbrookglobal.com/weekly-market-commentary-october-12-2026/ - [2026-10-13] Producer prices are forecast at +5.5% y/y for September. The PPI release is on Oct 15. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/13/september-consumer-price-index-inflation.html - [2026-10-14] Remaining BLS releases before the close: October CPI on Nov 10 and November CPI on **Dec 10, 2026**, the same day trading closes. https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/consumer-price-index-release-schedule/ - [2025 shutdown, BLS FAQ] BLS did not publish October 2025 CPI for most series, and the November 2025 index was carried forward from imputed data. BLS will not publish October 2026 12-month changes for indexes lacking October 2025 data. November 2026 y/y uses the November 2025 base, which is published. https://www.bls.gov/cpi/additional-resources/2025-federal-government-shutdown-impact-cpi-faq.htm - [2026-09-02] A continuing resolution funds the government through Dec 11, 2026, so a shutdown does not currently threaten the Dec 10 release. This comes from a secondary source (polymarkettrader.com), not a primary one. https://polymarkettrader.com/events/us-government-shutdown-october-2026/ - [Base-effect arithmetic, from my memory of 2025 index levels and not verified in this session] The November 2025 CPI-U NSA index was about 324.1, which was +2.7% y/y. A rounded reading above 3.9% needs an index of roughly 336.9 or higher in November 2026. September 2026 is about 336.7–337.0 (3.7% y/y). So November would need roughly flat-to-slightly-higher NSA prices from September to clear 3.9%. That is plausible given energy momentum, and falling energy would reverse it. BOTTOM LINE: Headline CPI is 3.7% y/y as of September, rising, with energy up 20% y/y and the Cleveland Fed nowcast for October near 3.6%. The question needs November to rise about 0.2 points above September. The outcome depends mostly on whether gasoline and oil prices hold or fall in October and November. NOT FOUND: Cleveland Fed nowcast for November 2026 y/y. Post-release market commentary on today's print. A primary source for the Fed's September hike. The exact September 2026 and November 2025 index levels (the fetched BLS page omitted its tables). Current oil and gasoline prices after Sept 30.

- [2026-10-14] BLS reported September 2026 CPI-U up 0.6% m/m SA and 3.7% over the year (NSA) . That is above the roughly 3.6% consensus and Kalshi expectation. Core was +0.3% m/m and 2.6% y/y. Gasoline rose 9.1% in September, and energy was +20.4% y/y. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm - [2026-10-14] The 2026 y/y path (NSA) was 2.4, 2.4, 3.3, 3.8, 4.2 (May peak), 3.5, 3.4, 3.4 and 3.7 (Sep). Only May, at 4.2%, has exceeded 3.9% this year, and April's 3.8% was just below it. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htm and https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/ - [2026-10-14] Base-effect arithmetic, from the index table: the NSA index was 324.800 in Sep 2025 and 324.122 in Nov 2025. October 2025 was never published because of the shutdown. The Nov 2025 base is about 0.2% below Sep 2025. https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/consumer-price-index-and-annual-percent-changes-from-1913-to-2008/ - [2026-10-14] My calculation, not a source figure: a Sep 2026 index near 336.8 (3.7% over 324.800). Resolving Yes needs a rounded Nov y/y of 4.0% or more, i.e. a Nov index of about 336.93 or higher (3.95% over 324.122). That requires only about 0 to +0.1% cumulative NSA growth over Oct and Nov 2026, depending on the unrounded Sep value. The low Nov 2025 base (shutdown-distorted) helps the Yes side. The contract wording "more than 3.9%" on the one-decimal value means 4.0% or higher is needed. - [2026-10-13] Cleveland Fed nowcast, run before the September release: Sep y/y was 3.60% (actual 3.7%), and October CPI was 0.27% m/m and 3.63% y/y. That was before the hot September print, so the October level is likely to be revised up. The Q4 CPI nowcast is 4.50% annualized. https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting - [2026-10-12] Kalshi traders, per CNBC, gave under one-in-three odds that inflation sets a new 2026 high (above 4.2%) and called it a likely peak but sticky. A Cryptobriefing piece the same day reported a Kalshi median for December 2026 CPI of 3.6%, with 21% for above 4.0%. That was before the 3.7% September print. Kalshi's track record on CPI is described as precise in a Fed FEDS paper, with its median and mode at a perfect record the day before FOMC meetings. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/12/inflation-will-remain-sticky-in-2026-according-to-prediction-markets.html, https://cryptobriefing.com/kalshi-traders-inflation-peaked-2026-sticky/, https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2026010pap.pdf - [2026-10-13] The Dow Jones consensus for September was 3.6% y/y and 0.6% m/m, and PPI was expected at 5.5% y/y. Actual CPI beat that by 0.1pp. One economist warned that oil-related prices could push headline higher. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/13/september-consumer-price-index-inflation.html - [2026-10-08] Long Forecast's statistical model projects Nov 2026 y/y at about 3.44–3.48% (range 3.23–3.69%). It is a naive model with no energy-shock input and is stale after the September print. https://longforecast.com/us-cpi - [2026-05-xx] The Philadelphia Fed Q2 SPF, 152 days old, expected 2026 Q4/Q4 headline CPI of 3.5% and core of 2.9%. It is outdated, and the Q3 SPF was not retrieved. https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-q2-2026 - [2026-07-01] Reference class: the 2026 spike was energy-driven (Strait of Hormuz and US–Iran conflict). Y/y inflation peaked at 4.2% in May, fell to 3.4% in July and August as oil dropped, then re-accelerated in September with gasoline up 9.1%. Kalshi's May-era forecasts overshot (it priced a peak as high as 4.8% after April). Year-over-year CPI typically moves 0.1–0.3pp per month in non-shock regimes. Energy-driven months, such as +0.7pp in September, are larger. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/01/inflation-peaked-in-may-as-energy-prices-fell-in-june-kalshi-traders-think.html - [2026-10-14] Release timing: the November CPI release date was not confirmed. Contract resolution relies on the BLS one-decimal figure. The shutdown clause only extends expiry if there is a new shutdown affecting data. The 2025 shutdown left no October 2025 index, but the Nov 2025 index exists (324.122). https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/ BOTTOM LINE: The outside view is that 3.9% sits just above the current 3.7% reading. The low Nov 2025 base means a flat NSA index from September would put Nov 2026 at about 3.9–4.0%, so the outcome depends largely on October–November energy prices. Pre-September-print market and nowcast medians (about 3.6% for Q4) were below the threshold, but the beat and the base effect move the central estimate up toward the strike. NOT FOUND: The live Kalshi price for the Nov 2026 above-3.9% strike (not searched, per instructions). Post-September-print Kalshi or economist forecasts for Nov 2026. The Cleveland Fed's post-release November nowcast. The official Nov 2026 CPI release date. The Q3 2026 SPF. The unrounded Sep 2026 CPI index, which I estimated.

YES means: the BLS one-decimal 12-month CPI-U change for November 2026 is 4.0% or higher. A reading of exactly 3.9% resolves No. - [2026-10-14] The BLS September release shows how big the energy contribution was. Gasoline's +9.1% accounted for over half of the 0.6% monthly rise, and energy rose 5.2% on the month after +2.1% in August. Core rose 0.3% for the second straight month, and shelter rose 0.4%. Core is therefore not offsetting energy. Shelter and core running 0.3–0.4% would add to headline in October and November. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm - [2026-10-14] Crude is rising into the window, not fading. Brent was about $105.4–106.4 on Oct 14, with WTI about $94.7–95.6. Iran is reportedly planning to intensify tanker strikes in Hormuz, and Netanyahu reportedly asked Trump to resume bombing Iran. The Oct 8 oilprice.com piece had Brent at $105 after a 5% jump. A Sept 30 tracker had Brent at $102.6 and Hormuz "closed, day 215". The path to YES needs Brent to stay above $100. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Climb-Above-106-as-Iran-Threatens-More-Tanker-Attacks.html - [2026-10-14] The September gasoline average was a record $4.33–4.36, up from $4.06 in August (LendingTree). Pump prices were still $4.36–4.41 on Oct 1–10, so October's average is likely to exceed September's. AAA reports the national average is 39% above a year ago. The October 2025 comparison base was about $3.03–3.15. Mechanically, October's gasoline index should stay flat to up even though the weekly price edged down about 1–2%. The late-September spike is still being averaged in, and the Oct 8 oil rebound adds upward pressure on prices going forward. https://www.lendingtree.com/credit-cards/study/us-gas-prices/ - [2026-10-14] The Oct 14 oilprice.com headline feed carries "Rising Gasoline Prices Fuel Fresh Inflation Fears in the U.S." Wholesale RBOB was about $3.25/gal. Diesel was $6.32 retail, up 72% y/y, so freight and goods pass-through is building. The same feed reports BMI expecting Brent above $100 for months, a Gulf hurricane that shut in 71% of US Gulf production, and the US SPR at its lowest since 1982. Each of these removes a buffer against a price spike. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Climb-Above-106-as-Iran-Threatens-More-Tanker-Attacks.html - [2026-10-13] Truflation's private-sector tracker had October CPI at +0.3% m/m and 3.7% y/y. It said tariff-driven goods costs are still entering the pipeline as pre-tariff inventory is replaced. Its September forecast of 3.6% undershot BLS by 0.1pp. https://crypto.news/us-cpi-to-rise-to-3-6-september-truflation-forecasts/ - [2026-10-14] YES needs only about +0.2pp over September. Another +0.3% NSA in October plus about +0.2% in November would exceed the roughly +0.1% needed. This is my arithmetic from the colleagues' index levels (Nov 2025 at 324.122, about 0.2% below Sep 2025). The low Nov 2025 base was imputed after the shutdown, which mechanically lifts the Nov 2026 y/y relative to a normal base. The fetched BLS page omitted its index tables, so the exact September index remains an estimate. - [2026-09-16] The Fed's own projections lean toward inflation staying high. The FOMC hiked 12–0 to 3.75–4.00% (first hike since 2023). Fed projections raised 2026 core PCE to 3.4%, and 15 of 18 participants saw upside risks to core inflation. The median dot shows one more hike in 2026. Chair Warsh said "too many categories" show price increases inconsistent with slowing inflation. This contradicts the argument that only energy is driving inflation. https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/portfolio-insights/fixed-income/fixed-income-perspectives/fomc-statement-september-2026/ - [2026-10-10] Markets already price a policy-tightening path. Barclays expects a hold in October and a hike in December, and Goldman leans December. One report puts October hike odds at 70% while another puts them under 20%, so I am not relying on either. Rate hikes do not lower November prices in time, because they act with a lag. https://www.mitrade.com/insights/more/inflation/us-cpi-preview-december-fed-hike-20261010J1122 - [2026-10-14] The surprise record for this regime favors upside. September beat the Cleveland Fed nowcast (3.60%), Kiplinger's economist (3.63%), and the Dow Jones consensus (3.6%). The colleagues' reports show the y/y path moved +0.7pp in a single energy-driven month. A +0.2pp move over two months is smaller than moves already seen in 2026. https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/economy/cpi-report-september-2026-what-to-expect BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES path is for Brent to stay above $100 (Hormuz attacks escalating), keeping October–November gasoline at or above September's record average. Core running at 0.3% per month, together with the low shutdown-affected Nov 2025 base, would then lift the y/y rate from 3.7% to 4.0% or higher by November. This requires only about 0.1% cumulative NSA growth over two months, so it requires no new shock beyond the current level. NOT FOUND: A post-September-print Cleveland Fed nowcast for November. Primary-source Nov 2026 forecasts from economists after the print. The unrounded September 2026 index (the BLS tables were omitted from the fetched page). The AAA newsroom page returned 403, so gasoline figures come from LendingTree and AAA search snippets.

YES means: the BLS-reported 12-month change in the all-items CPI-U (NSA, one decimal) for November 2026 is 4.0% or higher. The release is due Dec 10, 2026. The NO case is thin. The Sept 2026 index already sits at the Yes threshold, so NO needs a real NSA price decline over Oct–Nov. - [2026-10-14] BLS Table 1 gives the unrounded September level. The all-items NSA index was 336.940, against 324.800 in Sep 2025, which is 3.74% y/y. This corrects the colleagues' ~336.8 estimate. The Nov 2025 base of 324.122 (colleagues) puts the Yes cut at about 336.93 (324.122 × 1.0395). September is therefore about 0.01 index points above the cut. NO needs the NSA index to fall slightly from September to November, to 336.92 or below. Flat prices already resolve Yes. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t01.htm - [2026-10-14] The September jump was concentrated in a few items that could reverse. Gasoline rose 9.1% SA, and the NSA gasoline index went from 359.738 to 383.182. Gasoline has a 3.85% relative importance. Fuel oil rose 15.3%. Airline fares were up 22.4% y/y. A 5% pump-price drop from September's level would subtract about 0.19pp from the all-items index. That is the main route to the index falling. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t01.htm - [2026-10-14] Wholesale gasoline is cheaper than the pump prices that fed September's CPI. Gasoline futures were $3.23/gal, down 6.8% over a month, while crude was down 10.7% over the month and WTI was $94.47. The pump price is about $4.35, a large spread over futures. If that spread narrows, retail prices drift lower through November. Brent is still about $105.7 and fell only 2.8% over the month. https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gasoline - [2026-10-13] Retail gasoline has plateaued and is not rising much. AAA's national average was $4.35, down a cent on the week and 17 cents below a month ago in AAA's regional release. CNN describes pump prices as having "stabilized". The AAA weekly of Sep 24 had $4.48 and a September average of $4.30. October is therefore running about $4.35, only slightly above September's average. Further CPI gasoline gains look limited, and any slide in November would pull the index below the cut. https://newsroom.acg.aaa.com/gas-prices-ease-but-drivers-still-feel-the-squeeze, https://cnn.com/2026/10/13/economy/iran-war-oil-gas-prices-inflation - [2026-10-13] The "rockets and feathers" pattern cuts both ways. Pump prices fall slowly after crude drops. Crude fell about 11% (WTI) over the past month while Brent held near $105. Kpler data shows Hormuz flows back above pre-war levels in late September. A durable Hormuz normalisation, or the Russian diesel and ceasefire headlines, could lower November pump prices. This is the only supply-side path to NO. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Fall-as-Hormuz-Crude-Flows-Top-Pre-War-Levels.html, https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/oil-news-ceasefire-hopes-test-crude-as-hormuz-risk-keeps-brent-supported-1637277 - [2026-10-14] Core is not pushing the index up much. The consensus for September core was 0.2% m/m (it printed 0.3%), and core y/y was 2.4–2.6%. Kiplinger's cited forecaster expected the y/y core rate to edge down. Truflation had September headline at 3.6% with softer hiring and housing. Without energy, the NSA index can rise only slowly from here. Demand is weak: September employment was soft and auto sales were weak. https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/economy/cpi-report-september-2026-what-to-expect, https://crypto.news/us-cpi-to-rise-to-3-6-september-truflation-forecasts/ - [2026-10-12] Pre-print forecasts were below the strike. The Cleveland Fed nowcast was 3.60% for September (as of Oct 7), against a 3.74% outcome. The same model had October at 3.63%. The consensus for September was 3.6–3.7%. A forecast of about 3.6–3.7% for Q4 would resolve NO. The September overshoot of about 0.1pp is the main argument against reading those forecasts as safe. https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/us-cpi-preview-september-2026-forecasts-and-the-core-cpi-outlook - [2026-10-14] This year's 12-month rates show a spike-and-retrace pattern. The May peak of 4.2% fell to 3.4% by July after Brent dropped about 19% in May. A similar oil drop of the 10–20% kind seen in May and in the April and March ceasefire episodes would push November back below 3.9%. Oil is headline-driven. Ceasefire headlines have repeatedly moved Brent 10–15% in a day. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/29/oil-prices-iran-ceasefire-us-trump-strait-hormuz-energy-costs.html - [2026-10-14] Resolution technicalities that help NO are minor. The one-decimal BLS value is used, so 3.9% or less is NO. September's own unrounded 3.74% leaves 0.2pp of margin to 3.95%, and that margin is the entire NO cushion. No government shutdown is currently in the way of the Dec 10 release (colleagues cite a CR to Dec 11). The Nov 2025 base is published, so there is no missing-data route to NO. Any delay that pushed the release past Dec 10 would only extend the market, and the outcome would still resolve on the number. https://www.bls.gov/cpi/additional-resources/2025-federal-government-shutdown-impact-cpi-faq.htm BOTTOM LINE: The NO case relies almost entirely on a pullback in energy. Pump prices are already off their peak, futures are roughly 7% lower, and ceasefire headlines keep moving oil, so the NSA index must fall slightly from 336.940 to 336.92 or lower by November. With the September index already at the Yes cut, status-quo inertia favours Yes, and NO is the harder side to argue. NOT FOUND: A post-September-print Cleveland Fed November nowcast. A primary source for the AAA September-average or October-to-date retail gasoline average. Any forecaster's published November y/y forecast made after the Oct 14 print. The seasonal factors for Oct–Nov NSA moves. I did not research the Fed or Kalshi prices.