Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?

- [2026-09-16] The FOMC voted 12-0 to raise the target range by 25bp to 3.75%–4.00%. This was the first hike since 2023, under Chair Kevin Warsh. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html - [2026-09-17] The new range took effect on Sept 17. The rate on reserves was set at 3.90%. Source: wallstreeteconomicists.com, which cites the Fed implementation note. I did not find the Fed page itself. https://wallstreeteconomicists.com/articles/federal-reserve-september-2026-rate-decision - [2026-09-16] The September dot plot has a median year-end 2026 rate of about 4.125%, which is the 4.00–4.25% range. Twelve participants see one more 25bp hike this year. https://www.bondsavvy.com/fixed-income-investments-blog/fed-dot-plot - [2026-09] The September minutes say most officials judged another hike likely appropriate by year-end. They stressed that each meeting depends on the data. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate - [2026-10-12] Cleveland Fed's Hammack, a 2026 voter, favored "smaller adjustments" made "relatively quickly". She called a restrictive stance appropriate. Her remarks are mixed with "wait-and-see" signals from Jefferson and Bowman (Buttondown 10/13). August PCE inflation was 3.4% year over year, and core was 3.0%. https://cnbc.com/2026/10/12/beth-hammack-fed-inflation-policy.html - [2026-10-12] CME FedWatch gave roughly 78–82% odds of a hold on Oct 28. It gave about 84–88% odds of a hike at the Dec 9 meeting. About 69% sat on a 25bp hike (BeInCrypto), so the rest is on larger moves or other outcomes. https://beincrypto.com/hammack-fed-hike-bitcoin-october-q4-season - [2026-10-12] Polymarket (per Coinspeaker) gave 81% for an October hold. It gave 76% for a December hike and 50% for a 4.25% year-end rate. It gave 96% for no cuts this year. https://coinspeaker.com/fed-rate-polymarket-odds-december-rate-hike-bitcoin - [2026-10-14] FedWatch odds of a December hike are near 90%, per Tradingpedia. Middle East and energy-driven inflation risks continue. CPI and PPI data are due this week. https://tradingpedia.com/2026/10/14/gold-holds-near-4150-ahead-of-u-s-cpi-release - [Schedule] The remaining meetings are Oct 27–28 and Dec 8–9, 2026. https://growbeansprout.com/tools/fedwatch - [Arithmetic] The upper bound is now 4.00%. A "Yes" needs the upper bound at 4.75% or higher, which is +75bp across the two meetings. Two 25bp hikes give exactly 4.50%, which resolves No. Reaching 4.75% takes a 50bp move at one meeting plus 25bp at the other, or a 75bp move. The futures pricing I found centers on one 25bp hike by December. That would put the upper bound at 4.25%. BOTTOM LINE: The upper bound is 4.00% now, and the market's modal path is 4.25% after December. Resolving Yes would need an unusually aggressive 75bp of hikes across two meetings, and I found no source pricing that. NOT FOUND: The Fed's own implementation-note page or its current-target page, since the openmarket URL returned a 404. Any explicit market pricing of 50bp or larger hikes. The Oct 14 CPI result.

- [2026-09-16] The FOMC voted 12-0 to raise the target range to 3.75–4.00%, so the upper bound is now 4.00%. The Fed's own statement confirms this. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm - [2026-10-12] FRED shows the lower limit at 3.75%, and a dashboard dated 2026-10-10 shows the upper bound at 4.00%. The next meeting is Oct 27–28, then Dec 8–9. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFEDTARL and https://ryanoconnellfinance.com/fed-rate-dashboard/ - [2026-09-16] "Yes" needs an upper bound of 4.75% or more, because 4.50% itself resolves No. That is three 25bp hikes from 4.00%, or a 75bp move, over only two meetings (Oct 28 and Dec 9). This is my arithmetic from the target range, not a sourced figure. - [2026-09-16] Base rate: the Fed has moved 75bp or more across two consecutive meetings only in rare episodes (2022 and 1994-style). Moves of 50bp or more are also rare outside crises. The Fed has not hiked 25bp at every meeting in a row since 2022–23. This is general knowledge, not from a fetched source. Under the current Fed, this hike was the first since 2023, and the committee held at five straight meetings before it. - [2026-09-16] The September dot plot median for year-end 2026 is 4.1%, which implies one more 25bp hike (to 4.00–4.25%). Sixteen of 18 participants expect at least one more hike, and four see two. Even the most hawkish dots imply an upper bound of 4.50% at most. Chair Warsh does not submit a dot. https://www.bondsavvy.com/fixed-income-investments-blog/fed-dot-plot, https://www.chase.com/personal/investments/learning-and-insights/article/federal-reserve-raises-rates-officials-signal-one-more-hike-in-2026 - [2026-09-16] Reports put the dot range for year-end 2026 at 4.1%–4.4%, with 12 of 18 at 4.00–4.25%. A year-end target of 4.50–4.75% appears to sit outside the dot range. https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/09/16/feds-interest-rate-decision-september-16-2026 - [2026-08-07] Market pricing then: CME FedWatch gave about a 55% chance of a hike in October and almost 75% for December. That was cumulative, relative to the then-current 3.50–3.75%. These odds came before the September hike. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/07/odds-the-fed-hikes-in-september-tumble-following-big-july-jobs-miss.html - [2026-10-12] Market pricing now (from a search snippet; the page was blocked when fetched): about a 16% chance of a hike at the Oct 28 meeting, with pricing of roughly one more hike expected. A separate tracker (undated, possibly stale) showed a cumulative 79% hike chance by Dec 9, or +19.7bp, i.e. about one hike. None of these figures price a cumulative +75bp. https://rateprobability.com/fed and https://centralbank.watch/federal-reserve/ - [2026-10-07] The September minutes show most officials expect one more hike by year-end, without saying whether in October or December. September CPI is due Oct 14. The December meeting includes a new dot plot. https://www.regardsofwallstreet.com/news/september-2026-fed-meeting-dates-hike-odds - [2026-07-29] In July, 9 members voted to hold and a few favored a hike. The committee's stated preference is gradual moves; hikers argued that acting early would avoid a "steeper" sequence later. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260729.htm - [2026-09-16] Context: inflation is elevated (core PCE projected at 3.4%, headline 3.7% for 2026), with an oil/Middle East shock. The labor market is described as solid. This leaves some tail risk of an aggressive hawkish surprise. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html BOTTOM LINE: The upper bound is 4.00%. Resolving Yes needs about 75bp of hikes at the Oct and Dec meetings, while the dot plot and futures point to about 25bp in total, so the outside view strongly favors No. Only an unusual inflation or oil shock, leading to 50bp moves, would change that. NOT FOUND: A current CME FedWatch distribution for the Dec 9 target range, including the odds of a cumulative 50bp or 75bp move. Kalshi's other strikes for this meeting. Economist surveys for December. A track record of the dot plot or futures at this horizon.

YES means: the upper bound of the target range is 4.75% or higher after the Dec 9, 2026 FOMC meeting. That requires +75bp from the current 4.00%. A range of 4.25–4.50% (upper bound 4.50%) resolves No. The case for YES is thin. The evidence shows a YES path is possible but is not priced. - [2026-10-14] CME FedWatch (via PANews) shows these cumulative odds through December: unchanged 12.2%, +25bp 68.7%, +50bp 19.1%. No probability is shown for +75bp. The upper tail stops at 4.50%, which resolves No. A YES outcome would sit outside the priced distribution. https://panews.io/articles/01a137ba-54a6-708e-a8ed-eb3273f89182 - [2026-10-14] Polymarket's October contract (via Coinspeaker, 2026-10-13) prices a hike of 50bp or more at under 1%. That leaves a large October move as a tail outside the market's pricing. https://coinspeaker.com/fed-rate-polymarket-odds-december-rate-hike-bitcoin - [2026-09-29] Forbes reported that fixed-income markets were "firmly pricing" back-to-back hikes in October and December, which would give 4.25–4.50%. That is still short of YES. It does show the market was willing to price consecutive hikes at that point. Pricing has since eased, with October odds at 77% hold on 2026-10-14. https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2026/09/29/what-to-expect-from-interest-rates-for-the-rest-of-2026/ - [2026-09-17] Futures after the September meeting priced about 35% for a cumulative +50bp by year-end, up from 27% before Warsh spoke. Hawkish repricing after Warsh's "dose of accommodation" language has been fast. That is the template for a YES path, but it still stops at +50bp. https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/262172696-fed-rate-hike-october-dot-plot-median-one-more-2026-tradingkey - [2026-09-18] CNBC reported that Warsh repeated the "dose" phrasing deliberately, which one strategist said "raises the possibility of a more open-ended approach" to the number of hikes. Goldman and BofA added an October hike to their forecasts. Warsh also rejects forward guidance, so surprise moves are plausible. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/18/three-words-from-kevin-warsh-have-wall-street-wondering-how-far-the-fed-will-go-with-rate-hikes.html - [2026-09-17] Fed funds futures implied about 4.635% by late 2027, roughly three or four more hikes. That horizon is far beyond December, so it does not support a 75bp move by Dec 9. https://www.zetik.com/news/article/story_id-p008-216464 - [2026-10-07] CNBC reports 10-year Treasury yields at their highest since 2002 and the NY Fed consumer survey showing the highest inflation fears since May 2023. Both support tightening. Against that, August PCE came in well below expectations and officials say there is no need to rush. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/07/fed-officials-see-another-hike-coming-but-no-sign-as-to-when-minutes-show.html - [2026-10-14] The oil shock is the swing factor. Brent was $101.15 on Oct 1 and the Houthi–Saudi conflict is escalating. Investinglive says a renewed crude surge would undercut Williams' benign view and strengthen the case for tightening. September CPI was forecast at +0.6% m/m headline (3.6% y/y), with core at about 0.2% m/m. The actual print was not found. https://investinglive.com/central-banks/icymi-three-fed-officials-signal-inflation-fight-continues-williams-sees-no-2027-hike/ and https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/economy/cpi-report-september-2026-what-to-expect - [2026-10-14] Doves limit the upside. Williams sees one more hike in 2026 and none in 2027. Collins also sees a further hike. Minutes from the September meeting say only "another increase", and 16 of 18 dots expect one more hike. A 25bp move is the consensus center. https://investinglive.com/central-banks/icymi-three-fed-officials-signal-inflation-fight-continues-williams-sees-no-2027-hike/ - [2026-10-08] Officials say hikes need not come at consecutive meetings and they have flexibility on timing. This weakens the "catch-up" mechanism behind 50bp moves. https://local21news.com/news/nation-world/fed-grows-more-hawkish-on-inflation-but-sees-room-to-wait-on-rate-hikes - Single most likely YES path (my inference): an oil spike (Houthi attacks on Saudi energy sites) combined with a hot core CPI/PCE and a 25bp hike on Oct 28, or a 50bp hike then. The Dec 9 meeting would then need another 50bp or 25bp, a total of 75bp. This needs the committee to drop its stated gradualism, and the 2026-10-14 CME pricing assigns it essentially no weight. BOTTOM LINE: YES needs +75bp in two meetings. The only plausible route is a severe energy-driven inflation surprise that pushes the Fed to 50bp moves. Current pricing, the dots and the officials' remarks all stop at 4.50% or below. This is a tail outcome. NOT FOUND: the Oct 14 CPI result; a CME FedWatch or Kalshi price for the 4.75%+ range; any bank forecast of a 75bp cumulative move by December (the most hawkish found, Barclays and Capital Economics, show 25bp per meeting); any official advocating 50bp moves.

YES means: the upper bound of the Fed's target range is 4.75% or higher after the Dec 9, 2026 meeting. That is more than 4.50%, so it needs at least +75bp from the current 4.00%. - [2026-10-08] UOB (Alvin Liew) reads the Sept minutes as no commitment to an October move. It forecasts hikes in Dec 2026 and 1Q 2027, with the upper bound peaking at 4.50% and then holding through 2027. Even that hawkish call ends at 4.50%, which resolves No. UOB has ruled out an October hike because the meeting falls less than a week before the Nov 3 midterms. Bloomberg's WIRP put the October hike probability at 19.4% on Oct 8, down from 70.3% on Sep 28. https://www.tmgm.com/en/analysis/market-news/article/federal-reserve-more-hikes-ahead-after-october-pause-uob-202610081303 - [2026-10-07] Fetched: the Sept minutes say "most participants" saw another increase as likely appropriate "by year end". That is one increase, not three. Headline PCE for August was 3.4% and core 3.0%, both below consensus of 3.7% and 3.3%. Staff had also forecast 3.6% and 3.2%, so inflation undershot both. CME FedWatch had October at 17% and December at 84%. The article also cites the Nov 3 midterms as a reason for an October hold. https://www.scotsmanguide.com/news/fed-policymakers-saw-multiple-2026-rate-hikes-as-likely-september-fomc-minutes-show/ - [2026-10-02] The September payrolls were +29k against more than 80k expected, with unemployment up from 4.1% to 4.2% and earnings up only 0.1% m/m (TradingKey). Vanguard said the report "strengthens the case" for patience. Per CNBC, the labor data cut October odds sharply. A +75bp path needs hawkish surprises on both inflation and jobs, and recent data went the other way. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/02/fed-rate-hike-odds-decline-after-september-jobs-report.html and https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/economic/indicators/262213230-us-september-cpi-outlook-inflation-us-stocks-dollar-gold-reaction-tradingkey - [2026-10-13] A Kalshi-derived tracker shows an Oct 28 hold at about 80% and a Dec 9 hike (at that meeting alone) at about 74–75%. The same page says Kalshi day-before FOMC prices have beaten futures at predicting decisions. https://defirate.com/odds/fed-decision/ - [2026-10-05 to 10-08] The December hike is priced at about 25bp. Phemex (Oct 10) says a 25bp hike is "fully priced" for December. CME gives about 81% for at least one hike by December. Admiral reports about 20% for an October hike. Pricing is cumulative about +20–25bp. 50bp-plus outcomes appear only as tails. https://phemex.com/news/article/us-september-cpi-data-to-test-fed-rate-hike-expectations-as-gold-direction-remains-unclear-99409 and https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/us-cpi-preview-september-2026-forecasts-and-the-core-cpi-outlook - [2026-10-10] CPI consensus for September: headline 0.6% m/m (3.7% y/y), core 0.2% m/m (2.5% y/y). The core y/y is only 2.5%. The inflation spike is energy-led, with limited second-round effects. Barclays expects hold in October and hike in December. Goldman leans December. https://www.mitrade.com/insights/more/inflation/us-cpi-preview-december-fed-hike-20261010J1122 - [2026-09-21] FXStreet's view is that one more hike "should suffice" given limited second-round inflation effects, unless the Middle East situation deteriorates markedly. https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/warsh-leaves-a-decidedly-hawkish-mark-one-more-hike-should-suffice-202609211132 - [2026-09-16] Schwab says this is probably not the start of an extended hiking cycle. Only eight dots show another hike in 2027. Per CME on Sept 16, two or more additional hikes this year were about 37% right after the press conference. Cumulative 50bp is a minority outcome there, and 75bp is not mentioned. https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fomc-meeting - [2026-09-16] Warsh said he is "not in the forward guidance business", and he proposed the 25bp hike, which passed unanimously. The committee's revealed behavior is 25bp steps. In September the Fed hiked 25bp, not 50bp. Deutsche Bank's Aug 31 call was a combined 50bp this year (Sept + Dec), which also ends at 4.25% upper bound after Dec when starting from 3.75%. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html and https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/31/jackson-hole-fed-chair-kevin-warsh-hawkish-rate-hikes-analysts.html - [2026-10-13] Dovish signals: Williams "pushes the brakes on rates" (headline listed Oct 13). Waller (Sept 3) questioned what a single 25bp move would achieve. Collins backed the September hike. https://www.tmgm.com/en/analysis/market-news/article/federal-reserve-more-hikes-ahead-after-october-pause-uob-202610081303 and https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-rate-hike-expected-wednesday-120945216.html - [2026-07-09] The same Fed was divided in June. Many participants then saw rates "within or slightly below" the range at year-end. Warsh has been seen by markets as less than full-throated. A 75bp sprint would reverse a committee that held through July. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/09/kalshi-traders-see-roughly-50percent-odds-of-a-rate-hike-in-2026-as-fed-is-split-on-policy.html - [Mechanism] The market resolves on the Fed's published target range after Dec 9, so the intermeeting mechanism is irrelevant. A Yes needs 3 x 25bp, or 50bp plus 25bp, or 75bp at one meeting, within two meetings (Oct 28 and Dec 9). There is no further meeting before Dec 9, so there is no catch-up path. Two 25bp hikes yield 4.50% upper bound, which resolves No. This is my arithmetic from the fetched range. BOTTOM LINE: A Yes needs +75bp over two meetings. The dot plot, the minutes, UOB's forecast (which peaks at exactly 4.50%) and futures pricing all end at 4.25% or at most 4.50%. October hawkishness is damped by weak payrolls, softer PCE and midterm proximity. Only a severe energy or inflation shock would produce 50bp-plus moves. NOT FOUND: Oct 14 CPI result. A current CME distribution for 4.75%+. Any named forecaster calling 4.75%+ by December. The CNBC page itself, which would not load for a fetch.