Will the price of natural gas get above $4.00 per million BTU before January 1, 2027? — $4.01 or above

- [2026-10-06] The latest EIA daily Henry Hub spot print I could retrieve is $3.03. The prior days were $2.96 (10-05), $2.90 (10-02), $3.00 (10-01) and $3.02 (9-30). The next EIA release is 2026-10-15. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DHHNGSP - [2026-07-20] Spot ran $2.73–$3.34 from mid-June to 07-20 (last value $2.80). I found no spot reading above $4 since the market opened on 2026-03-11. https://ycharts.com/indicators/henry_hub_natural_gas_spot_price - [2026-01-21] Spot reached $4.98 in the January cold spike. That is before the 03-11 market open, so it does not count. https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/ - [2026-10-13] The November NYMEX contract is about $3.04–3.15. It fell for a second day to about $3.13–3.15 as Gulf producers restored output after Hurricane Isaias and warm forecasts cut heating demand. FXEmpire (12 Oct) calls the outlook bearish, with a short-term target of $2.90–3.09. https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/natural-gas - [2026-10-09] Hurricane Isaias made landfall near Destin, FL on 10-09. It shut in a peak of about 1.3 Bcf/d of offshore Gulf output, and about 25% of Gulf output was still shut in on 10-12. Offshore is only about 2% of US supply, and the storm largely missed the LNG terminals. https://www.tradingview.com/news/te_news:591028:0-us-natural-gas-prices-ease/ - [2026-10-08] EIA storage was 3,500 Bcf for the week ending 10-02 (+85 Bcf against 79 expected). That is 68 Bcf above the 5-year average but 130 Bcf below year-ago. NGI estimates a 74 Bcf build for the week ending 10-09, below the 5-year average of 90, which would cut the surplus to 52 Bcf. The EIA report is due 10-15. https://naturalgasintel.com/news/us-natural-gas-storage-seen-tightening-as-producers-gear-up-for-winter/ - [2026-10-06] The EIA October STEO has Henry Hub averaging $3.48 in 2026 and $3.16 in 2027. It expects storage to enter winter 2% above the 5-year average, and says strong production and high inventories should limit price increases. https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press593.php - [2026-10-06] The STEO also has Brent at $105/b in 4Q26, $14 higher than last month's STEO. Distillate is tight, but US gas is not tracking oil. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf - [2026-10-09] NGI says Henry Hub is trading below $4 with a "relatively comfortable" winter expected. Northeast pipeline-constrained hubs have January forwards above $20, which do not affect Henry Hub. LNG feedgas is about 17.1 Bcf/d in October against 18.0 in September, because of a delayed Freeport train and Cove Point maintenance. https://naturalgasintel.com/news/what-plunging-spot-prices-could-mean-for-natural-gas-futures - [2026-10-12] Dutch TTF is about €80–84/MWh, the highest since early 2023. EU storage is about 73% against a 90% norm, and Qatari LNG is reported absent. This is a bullish pull on US LNG demand, but US export capacity is the constraint. https://www.tftc.io/eu-natural-gas-multi-year-highs-winter-storage-deficit-2026 - [2026-10-07] The Dallas Fed Q3 survey average for end-2026 Henry Hub is $3.29 (range $2.20–$8.00). https://www.rigzone.com/news/execs_predict_future_henry_hub_natgas_prices-07-oct-2026-184795-article - Scheduled before close: weekly EIA storage reports on Thursdays (10-15 first), the November STEO in early November, and winter weather. EIA's 2026 forecast average of $3.48 includes the January spike. BOTTOM LINE: Spot is about $3.0 and the front-month futures are about $3.0–3.2, so a print above $4.00 needs roughly a 30%+ rise. Storage is above average and EIA forecasts are soft, so a cold December or a large supply or LNG shock would be needed. The January 2026 spike to $4.98 shows such spikes can happen, but none has occurred since 03-11. NOT FOUND: The EIA daily Henry Hub value for 10-07 through 10-13 (the FRED page I could read showed data only through 10-06). The December 2026 and January 2027 futures prices. A confirmed full-period maximum of daily spot since 03-11, though the sources I saw show none above $4.

- [2026-10-06] The latest EIA Henry Hub daily spot print I could retrieve is $3.03. Late-Sept to early-Oct prints ran $2.90–3.21, and the 2026-09-25 high was $3.21. The Aug–Sep monthly averages were $2.78 and $2.95. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/DHHNGSP.txt - [2026-10-13] The NYMEX November future was about $3.12 (a trade newsletter snapshot). Trading Economics showed front-month at about $3.28 on Oct 13, up 13% over one month. Both are well below $4.01. https://byronporter.substack.com/p/the-pacifics-daily-brief-tuesday - [2026-10-14] The NYMEX forward curve (Constellation/ICE, 15-minute-delayed quotes, undated in the fetch) was Nov-26 $3.173, Dec-26 $3.508 and Jan-27 $3.929. The Nov26–Mar27 winter strip was $3.39. No contract in the window is at or above $4.01. Only Jan-27 is near the threshold, and Jan-27 settles in late December. Spot would have to exceed the futures strip by about 3% for the Jan contract alone. https://www.constellation.com/solutions/for-your-commercial-business/energy-tools-and-resources/tools-for-your-natural-gas-plan-nymex-pricing/TableData.html - [2026-10-06] The EIA October STEO forecasts Henry Hub at $3.48 for 2026 and $3.16 for 2027. It also expects inventories to enter winter 2% above the five-year average, with production growth limiting price increases. https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press593.php - [2026-08-xx] The August STEO expected Henry Hub below $3.00 until November, then an average of $3.03 over the remaining five months of 2026. EIA's forecasts have been revised down since July. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/aug26.pdf - [2026-10-07] The Dallas Fed Energy Survey (Q3 2026) had executives expecting a $3.29 year-end Henry Hub average. The range was $2.20–$8.00, and spot averaged $2.97 during the survey. Earlier surveys expected $4.19 (Q4 2025) and $3.60 (Q1 2026) for year-end. Those were too high given that spot is about $3 now. https://www.rigzone.com/news/execs_predict_future_henry_hub_natgas_prices-07-oct-2026-184795-article - [2026-01-21] Reference-class evidence from the same year: spot jumped from $3.12 to $4.98 in one week (Jan 14–21) on winter storm Fern. January 2026 averaged $7.72. This shows that a cold-driven spike can exceed $4 within days, even though the prior-week price was around $3. https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/ - [2025] In 2025, daily Henry Hub spot ranged from $2.65 to $9.86 and averaged $3.52. Winter 2024/25 also had spikes, with spot above $13 in January 2024 (a one-day Friday print). The 2024 annual average was a record low in real terms. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=66984 - [2026-10-09] NGI says Henry Hub is trading below $4 with ample supply and a comfortable winter outlook. New England January forwards are above $20 because of pipeline constraints, which is a regional effect that does not count for Henry Hub. https://naturalgasintel.com/news/what-plunging-spot-prices-could-mean-for-natural-gas-futures - [2026-10-01] NGI: November futures settled at $2.967. Production was off its highs and storage was below the 2025 level. Analysts said the market is vulnerable to weather surprises. https://naturalgasintel.com/news/natural-gas-futures-lose-3-as-mild-weather-trumps-tighter-supply/ - [2026-10-06] EIA's October STEO expects strong El Niño risk to alter winter weather. National winter heating degree days are expected to be about the same as last winter. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/natgas.php - Base-rate reasoning (my inference, not a sourced figure): in the post-2020 record, spot rose above $4 during Nov–Dec only in years with strong cold or tight storage (2022, 2025/26 into January). The window is about 11 weeks, mostly before peak winter, from a base near $3.0–3.3. Since 2023, only a few early-winter cold snaps, such as Dec 2022 and Dec 2025, lifted spot much above $4. BOTTOM LINE: The outside view points to a low-probability YES. Spot is about $3.0–3.3, the Nov/Dec futures are $3.17/$3.51, and EIA, the Dallas Fed and the forward curve all cluster at $3.2–3.5. YES would need an early, severe cold snap or a supply shock that lifts spot by about 30% before Dec 31, which the 2026 Fern spike shows is possible but unusual. NOT FOUND: the EIA daily Henry Hub print after 2026-10-06; a Kalshi or other prediction-market strike ladder; a rigorous historical count of how often Oct 14–Dec 31 spot exceeded $4.00 from a starting price near $3.

YES means: EIA reports a Henry Hub daily spot price of $4.01 or more (above $4.00) on any day after issuance and before 2027-01-01. - [2026-12-05 precedent, from the EIA weekly] Last winter's spot high was $5.19 on 2025-12-05. A cold end to November and start of December drove it, which is a spot print above $4 inside the same Nov–Dec window. NGI's weekly cash average for Dec 1–5 was about $2.00 above the first week of November. The January 2026 NYMEX contract expired Dec 29 at $4.687. The precedent shows the path runs through early-winter cold, not only a January storm. Caveat: the curve was higher then (winter strip about $4.29–4.44 in early Nov 2025). https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/?os=firetv - [2025-12-12] In the same episode, January futures went from about $4.56 on the Nov 26 roll to $5.29 on Dec 5, a gain of $0.73 in six sessions. The prompt month then fell back below $4 within days once forecasts turned warm. A cold shift can therefore lift prices quickly, but the gains are volatile. https://www.aga.org/research-policy/resource-library/natural-gas-market-indicators-december-11-2025/ - [2026-10-13] The CPC ENSO update says a strong-to-very-strong El Niño is likely through Jan–Mar 2027 (above 83% chance), with Niño 3.4 at +2.4°C. The same deck notes above-average heights and temperatures persisted over the central US for two months. Strong El Niño usually points to a warmer northern tier, so this is not a clear YES driver. NOAA's PDO caveat adds to the uncertainty, and the Oct 15 seasonal outlook is the next checkpoint for the forecasters. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf - [2026-09-01] EIA expects LNG exports of 17.3 Bcf/d in 2H26, rising to 18.7 Bcf/d in 1H27. That is about 1.4 Bcf/d of extra feedgas pull. Golden Pass Train 1 was still ramping and Train 2 is due late 2026. Plaquemines is at full capacity and Corpus Christi Stage 3 runs six of seven trains. Once the October maintenance and the Freeport train return, feedgas demand rises just as heating load starts. This is the structural support for a cold-weather spike. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=68064 - [2026-09-01] The Hormuz closure in March cut off about 20% of global LNG supply. TTF averaged $14.74/MMBtu in 1H26 and JKM $15.56. Global prices keep US export terminals at maximum output, so any US supply loss would hit prices without relief from reduced exports. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=68064 - [2026-10-06] NGI reports that European and Asian gas moved steadily higher as Iranian attacks on Hormuz shipping continued, with no clear sign of easing. If US feedgas hits its ceiling, higher global prices cannot raise Henry Hub through exports. Their only YES effect is sentiment and speculative buying, which is a weak channel. https://naturalgasintel.com/news/natural-gas-forwards-crushed-by-warmer-weather-forecasts/ - [2026-10-13] A TradingNEWS snapshot has Henry Hub at $3.26, with TTF at €86.93. It also cites record output of 111.5 Bcf/d as a cap near $3.41. The first figure is a market quote, not an EIA print. It is about 23% below the $4.01 threshold, a smaller gap than the roughly 30% implied by the Oct 6 EIA print of $3.03. https://tradingnews.com/news/gold-at-4187-usd-as-289-tonne-central-bank-bid-meets-a-hawkish-fed-4300-usd-in-play - [2026-10-13] The Investing.com Micro Henry Hub quote for November was $3.317, up 1.0% on the day. It shows a 52-week range of $2.49–$7.43. The 7.43 high confirms how far prompt futures can run in a cold spell. The Oct 13 quote is higher than the $3.0–3.15 cited in the Oct 13 report above, so the front month is not clearly sliding. https://www.investing.com/commodities/micro-henry-hub-natural-gas-c1-futures - [2026-01-21] The EIA weekly shows how the January spike unfolded. Spot was $2.95 on Jan 15 and $3.13 on Jan 16, then $3.98 on Jan 20 and $4.98 on Jan 21. The move from $3.13 to above $4 took one trading day, and before it spot looked ordinary. Spot can jump over $4 within a week from a $3 base once a forecast flips cold. https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/ - [2026-07-20] The TradingView note says NYMEX shows higher lows since April 2026, and Henry Hub was $3.04 on the day of the snapshot. Spot has not made a new low below $2.73 since June. This is weak technical support for a rising floor and does not point to a breakout. https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-HH1!/ **Single most likely path to YES:** an early, widespread cold outbreak in the central and eastern US in late Nov to Dec. It would need three things: - Cold would have to arrive before storage is drawn far below the five-year average. The Oct 8 storage surplus is the main buffer against this. - LNG feedgas would have to recover to 18–19+ Bcf/d (Freeport and Cove Point back, Golden Pass ramping). Global prices keep terminals at maximum. - Spot would have to clear the Dec-26 strip of about $3.51 by about 15%, or the Jan-27 strip of $3.93 by about 2%. A print above $4.01 around a cold forecast shift is the 2025 pattern. The path also works through a Gulf or production disruption (hurricane or freeze-offs) in a cold spell. Stated plainly: a cold December offers the clearest route, and the El Niño-based warm bias lowers its odds. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES case is a repeat of the Dec 2025 pattern, an early cold snap lifting spot from about $3.1–3.3 to above $4. LNG demand is near its ceiling and global prices are high, so there is little demand slack. The forward strip already puts January near $3.93, but the El Niño warm signal and above-average storage work against it. NOT FOUND: EIA daily spot prints after Oct 6. NOAA's Oct 15 seasonal outlook. Any Kalshi strike ladder. A dated Dec-26/Jan-27 futures settlement that I confirmed myself. Any EIA spot print above $4 since Mar 11.

YES means: EIA reports a Henry Hub spot price above $4.00/MMBtu (i.e. $4.01 or more) on any day after issuance and before 2027-01-01. - [2026-10-07] I read the full FRED/EIA daily file (DHHNGSP, through 10-06). Every print from 2026-05-07 to 10-06 is between $2.56 and $3.34. The highest is $3.34 (06-30 to 07-02), and the 09-25 high was $3.21. Spot has sat in a narrow band for five months. It has not come within about $0.65 of $4.01, which backs the "no spot reading above $4 since market open" finding. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/DHHNGSP.txt - [2026-10-03] Monthly Henry Hub spot averages since the January spike are $3.62 (Feb), $3.04 (Mar), $2.77 (Apr), $2.94 (May), $3.15 (Jun), $2.89 (Jul) and $2.78 (Aug). The market has stayed below $3.65 on a monthly basis for eight months running. https://natgaschart.com/natural-gas-price-history - [2026-10-06] EIA's October STEO (forecast completed 10-01) has end-October storage at 3,850 Bcf, 2% above the five-year average. It assumes winter heating degree days nearly unchanged from last winter and 1% below the five-winter average. Its 2027 monthly path bottoms at $2.60 and only reaches $3.90 in Dec 2027. EIA's baseline contains no month near $4 before 2027. The next STEO is due 11-10. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/natgas.php - [2026-10-06] The STEO attributes the lower 2027 average to the January 2026 Fern spike. It also says Feb–Dec 2027 averages $3.09, the same as Feb–Dec 2026. EIA sees the post-Fern market as structurally about $3.1. The one $4+ episode was a weather outlier, not a new price level. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/natgas.php - [2026-10-01] Supply is still growing. Dry gas production hit a new daily record on 09-17 and is running nearly 4% above year-ago. Gas-directed rigs are up 15.4% y/y (+18, mostly Haynesville). The Hugh Brinson Permian pipeline (in service since June) is still ramping into early 2027. Elevated Brent supports associated gas. AGA lists this as a supply-side headwind for prices. https://www.aga.org/research-policy/resource-library/natural-gas-market-indicators-october-1-2026/ - [2026-10-01] The Middle East conflict that began in late February has pushed TTF up 127% and JKM up 145%. Henry Hub futures rose only 7% over the same period (weekly average $2.89 to $3.11). Seven months of a global energy crisis have not moved US gas, because LNG export capacity is the binding limit. More foreign demand therefore does not raise Henry Hub. The AGA notes US gas is "relatively insulated". https://www.aga.org/research-policy/resource-library/natural-gas-market-indicators-october-1-2026/ - [2026-10-01] The AGA notes the Atlantic season had produced no hurricane as of 10-01, the first time since 1914. This is background to the Isaias outage. Gulf supply losses have been small and short-lived, and Isaias (colleagues' 10-09 note) did not move the Henry Hub price up. https://www.aga.org/research-policy/resource-library/natural-gas-market-indicators-october-1-2026/ - [2026-03-13] Weekly spot averages show how rare early-winter $4+ is. Last year it took the "coldest temperatures in four years" in early December 2025 to push weekly spot to $4.97 (12-05) and $4.60 (12-12). Mid-Oct to late-Nov 2025 stayed at $2.80–$3.89 weekly, with the first weekly print near $4 only on 11-28 ($4.29). So even a cold year did not clear $4 before late November. The window therefore effectively comes down to roughly December 1–31, with a first-print requirement. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1105300/weekly-henry-hub-natural-gas-prices - [2025-12-11] Even in that cold start, Dec 2025 NYMEX prompt-month spiked above $5.20 and fell back to the mid-$4 range within days as the forecasts warmed. Storage was then lower relative to average than now. The current surplus (+68 Bcf, 10-08 report) is a larger cushion than last year had. https://www.aga.org/research-policy/resource-library/natural-gas-market-indicators-december-11-2025/ - [2026-10-07] Resolution technicality, which cuts only against YES: the contract settles only on the EIA's published Henry Hub spot series, not on futures, Northeast hubs or intraday quotes. Futures-only spikes, and the $20+ New England forwards (colleague note, 10-09), do not count. Spot has also run $0.0–0.15 below the front-month in recent weeks (09-30 spot $3.02 against $3.03 futures), so it does not carry a premium. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/DHHNGSP.txt - [2026-10-01] Demand-side drag: the Fed raised rates on 09-16 to 3.75–4%, citing energy-driven inflation. AGA flags that higher borrowing costs could temper US industrial gas demand growth. This is a mild bearish offset to the LNG and power demand story. https://www.aga.org/research-policy/resource-library/natural-gas-market-indicators-october-1-2026/ BOTTOM LINE: The NO case rests on inertia and arithmetic. Spot has not exceeded $3.34 in five months, and a single print of $4.01+ requires about a 30% jump. That jump would have to come in a roughly four-week December window, because even the cold 2025 start did not clear $4 until late November. EIA's baseline, the storage cushion, record output and the cap on LNG exports all point away from it. Only a Fern-type cold shock would flip it. NOT FOUND: EIA daily spot prints after 10-06; Dec-26/Jan-27 futures settlements (the colleagues' Constellation snapshot is undated); the AGA Winter Heating Outlook PDF contents; NOAA's winter 2026–27 temperature outlook; a count of how often Oct 14–Dec 31 spot exceeded $4.00 historically from a ~$3 start.