Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?

- [2026-10-13] Trump endorsed Republican nominee Michele Tafoya at an Ohio rally on Oct. 12. She is trying to present herself as an independent voice, and says she is pro-choice. She called some of Trump's rhetoric about Somalis "not appropriate". https://www.mprnews.org/story/2026/10/13/michele-tafoya-endorsed-by-trump-for-senate-minnesota - [2026-10-12] The Star Tribune/KARE 11 Minnesota Poll (Mason-Dixon, Oct. 5–7, 800 likely voters, ±3.5) has Flanagan (DFL) 47%, Tafoya 43%, with 9% undecided. Independents split 35% Flanagan, 40% Tafoya, 24% undecided. https://www.startribune.com/minnesota-poll-flanagan-tafoya-senate/601887443 - [2026-10-12] FiftyPlusOne's polling average shows Flanagan 46.4%, Tafoya 42.6% (Flanagan +4). https://fiftyplusone.news/polls/senate/general/minnesota - [2026-10-09] Rasmussen (R), reported Oct. 9, has Flanagan 48%, Tafoya 45%, with 7% unsure. https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2026/election_2026_minnesota_senate - [2026-10-07] Other recent polls, per Poliwave's aggregator, all show Flanagan ahead. Morning Consult (D) has her +4, GQR (D) +9, and InsiderAdvantage (R, Sep. 29) +1. Poliwave's average is Flanagan +3.9 and it rates the race Safe D, a rating I did not verify on the site itself. https://www.poliwave.com/us/mn/sen-fed - [2026-10-11] The Daily Caller cites an average with Flanagan ahead by only 1.6 points, so averages differ by source. https://dailycaller.com/2026/10/11/michele-tafoya-minnesota-senate-racepeggy-flanagan-2026-midterms/ - [2026-10-12] Outside money is thin. Post-primary outside spending was about $2M as of Oct. 9, and about $1.3M of that is pro-Flanagan billboards. Senate Majority Leader Thune, campaigning for Tafoya on Oct. 5, did not commit Senate Leadership Fund money. Flanagan is doing 30 events in 30 days. https://www.mprnews.org/story/2026/10/12/peggy-flanagan-michele-tafoya-senate-race-stays-quiet-in-minnesota - [2026-10-12] Fraud in Walz-administration social services programs is Tafoya's main line of attack against Flanagan, who was lieutenant governor. The Star Tribune reports Democrats are more enthusiastic about voting than Republicans. https://www.startribune.com/minnesota-poll-flanagan-tafoya-senate/601887443 - [2026-10-01] Ratings: Inside Elections moved Minnesota from Likely D to Lean D on Oct. 1. Cook's page showed Likely D as of Sep. 23 and Ballotpedia (as of March) listed Sabato as Likely D. I did not confirm Sabato's current rating. https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-election-predictions/ - [2026-10-16] Scheduled: the MPR News debate between Flanagan and Tafoya is on Oct. 16 at noon, and MPR calls it possibly their only one. No second debate had been agreed as of Oct. 12–13. Election Day is Nov. 3. https://www.mpr.org/events/us-senate-debate - [2026-10-09] Early and mail voting is underway in Minnesota and surging (per an MPR headline). https://sahanjournal.com/news/minnesota-voter-guide-midterms-2026/ - [2026-08-11] Flanagan beat Rep. Angie Craig in the DFL primary by about 20 points (Sahan Journal; Wikipedia says 59%). Tafoya won the GOP primary with 52.1%. Republicans have not won a Minnesota Senate race since 2002. Craig is set to campaign for Flanagan. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Minnesota BOTTOM LINE: Flanagan leads in every recent public poll, by roughly 1–9 points and mostly 3–4, with a lot of undecided and independent voters. The race is rated Likely D to Lean D, the national environment favors Democrats, and Republicans are spending little here. A fraud-issue tightening, Trump's endorsement and the Oct. 16 debate are the near-term variables. No result or AP/Fox/NBC call exists yet. NOT FOUND: Sabato's current (October) rating and Inside Elections' exact current rating text (only a 270toWin changelog line); any Polymarket-independent prediction-market prices; a confirmed second debate date; the MinnPost article, which was blocked.

- [2026-10-12] Star Tribune/KARE 11 Minnesota Poll (Mason-Dixon, Oct 5–7, n=800 LV, ±3.5): Flanagan (D) 47%, Tafoya (R) 43%, 9% undecided. Independents split 35 Flanagan, 40 Tafoya, 24 undecided. Star Tribune says Tafoya has asked GOP leaders for more help closing the funding gap with Flanagan, so far without success. https://www.startribune.com/minnesota-poll-flanagan-tafoya-senate/601887443 - [2026-10-09] Rasmussen (R-leaning), Oct 5–7, n=856 LV: Flanagan 48%, Tafoya 45%, 7% unsure. https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2026/election_2026_minnesota_senate - [2026-10-07] Poliwave lists 12 public polls, and every poll shown has Flanagan ahead. Margins run from +1 (InsiderAdvantage, R) to +9 (GQR, D). Its poll average is Flanagan 47.3, Tafoya 43.4 (+3.9). Its own forecast is Flanagan +13.3, "Safe D". Pollsmax's average is D +4.1 across 14 polls. https://www.poliwave.com/us/mn/sen-fed - [2026-10-04] PoliAgg model (snippet only, page not fetchable): Flanagan 79%, Tafoya 21%, rated Likely D. Its polling margin is about D +6.5. The page says it tracks Polymarket among 6 markets. https://poliagg.com/race/us-senate-2026-mn/ - [2026-10-01] Ratings are shifting toward Democrats but still short of Safe. Inside Elections moved MN from Likely D to Lean D on Oct 1. The Almanac of American Politics moved it from Likely to Lean D on Sept 23. https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-election-predictions/ - [2026-10-06] Cook Political Report still lists MN-OPEN as Likely D. Its race analysis (updated Sep 23) is skeptical of the close public polls and cites ICE raids and the economy. National GOP sources say the state fraud scandal will stick to Flanagan. https://www.cookpolitical.com/senate/race/488611 - [2026-03-31] Ballotpedia (snapshot through March 2026): Cook, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball all rated the race Likely D. https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Minnesota,_2026 - [2026-08-11] Primary results: Flanagan beat Rep. Angie Craig, 59% to 39%. Craig conceded and endorsed Flanagan. Tafoya won the GOP primary with 52.1%, ahead of Schwarze (24%) and Royce White (11%). https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-elections/minnesota-senate-results - [2026-10-14] Historical base rate: Wikipedia says Republicans have not won a Minnesota Senate election since 2002. This is the first open-seat Senate race in the state since 2006. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Minnesota - [2026-07-31] Earlier polling: Mason-Dixon had generic D +8 (49–41). Both Craig and Flanagan led Tafoya by about 7 points. KSTP/SurveyUSA showed a tighter race in mid-July. https://minnesotareformer.com/2026/07/31/state-of-the-race-for-u-s-senate/ - [2026-10-12] National environment: Star Tribune describes a tough climate for Republicans and an electorate unhappy with Trump. Flanagan's lead comes from Hennepin and Ramsey counties. https://www.startribune.com/minnesota-poll-flanagan-tafoya-senate/601887443 - [2026-10-14] Related MN race: the AG race (Ellison vs. Schutz) is much tighter in some polls. SurveyUSA Sept 9–14 had Schutz ahead 45–43. Morning Consult (D) Oct 2–7 had Ellison ahead 43–39. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Minnesota_Attorney_General_election BOTTOM LINE: Minnesota has voted Democratic for Senate in every cycle since 2002. Flanagan has led every public poll, by about 4 points on average. Raters put the race at Likely D to Lean D, and one model gives her about 79%. The outside view therefore favors Democrats, but the margin is narrower than the state's usual Democratic edge, and Lean D ratings, close polls and the fraud-scandal attacks leave real upset risk. NOT FOUND: The Polymarket price (excluded by instruction). Sabato's current October rating (only the March "Likely D" snapshot). The Silver Bulletin, Economist and DDHQ Minnesota Senate forecasts. Kalshi or PredictIt odds. The PoliAgg and Hill pages could not be fetched (403), so their figures come from search snippets.

YES means: the Democratic (DFL) nominee, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, is called the winner of the Nov. 3, 2026 Minnesota U.S. Senate election. The call must come from AP, Fox and NBC, or else from the official certification. - [2026-10-09] Flanagan holds 94% of Democrats and 40% of unaffiliated voters in Rasmussen (R-leaning, Oct 5–7, n=856). Tafoya has 42% of unaffiliated voters, with 17% undecided. Flanagan leads moderates 54–26, and 86% of Harris 2024 voters back her. A GOP-leaning pollster therefore still has a Democratic base that is consolidated, and the undecided pool is mostly moderates and independents. https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2026/election_2026_minnesota_senate - [2026-10-13, snippet] The Star Tribune/KARE 11 poll shows Trump's approval at 22% in Hennepin and Ramsey counties and 39% in the metro suburbs. Approval is 47% in southern Minnesota and 52% in the north. Tafoya wins greater Minnesota by about 17 points, but the Twin Cities vote is the larger bloc. The KARE page returned 403 on fetch, so this figure comes from search results. https://www.kare11.com/article/news/politics/elections/minnesota-poll-flanagan-with-narrow-lead-over-tafoya-in-us-senate-race/89-ed06354a-4656-4cc0-907e-12e67119cf00 - [2026-10-08] National backdrop: the Wikipedia table of the Trump-approval aggregators lists the average at 36.3% approve and 61.2% disapprove as of Oct 8. FiftyPlusOne has 34.6% approve. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_second_Trump_presidency - [2026-10-02] FiftyPlusOne's modeled state estimate puts Trump's net approval in Minnesota at about −31. That is far worse than his 2024 result in the state, which he lost. This helps Flanagan most now that Tafoya is carrying Trump's Oct 12 endorsement. https://projects.statenavigate.com/interactives/us/trump-approval/ - [2026-10-13] Flanagan's campaign is using the Trump endorsement, posting his rally clip and tying Tafoya to the Iran war, tariffs, ICE and abortion restrictions. Tafoya did not acknowledge the endorsement. The Minnesota Reformer reports that national Republicans are not putting real money behind her. This is a mechanism for the "independent voice" pitch to erode among the swing voters she needs. https://minnesotareformer.com/2026/10/13/michele-tafoya-shrugs-off-trump-endorsement-in-close-senate-race-in-minnesota/ - [2026-10-06] Sabato's Crystal Ball updated its Senate ratings on Oct 6 (Alaska to Leans D) and shifted several seats toward Democrats on Sept 22 (Michigan to Leans D). The 270toWin consensus map forecasts 48 D, 46 R and 2 independents, with 5 seats toss-up. Minnesota's overall rating was in the omitted portion of the page, so I could not read it. Raters are still moving toward Democrats. https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-election/sabatos-crystal-ball-senate-2026 - [2026-10-01] The Inside Elections and Almanac rating changes, per 270toWin, moved Minnesota toward Democrats (Likely to Lean D), not away. https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-election-predictions/ - [2026-09-17, approximate] KSTP/SurveyUSA had Flanagan and Tafoya tied 42–42 with 12% undecided. That poll opened with Flanagan +5 post-primary, and 4% went to minor candidates. Every other public poll shows Flanagan ahead, so the tie is the only evidence of a lead change. The Star Tribune Oct 12 poll and Rasmussen, both after it, show her ahead again. https://kstp.com/kstp-news/top-news/kstp-surveyusa-poll-governor-senate-races-tightening-days-before-early-voting-starts-in-minnesota/ - [2026-09-22] The Star Tribune counted AdImpact reservations of $1.6M for Flanagan against $1.2M for Tafoya. The Rollcall/FEC figures show Flanagan raising $6.5M against Tafoya's $5.3M through July. https://www.startribune.com/mn-midterm-election-early-voting-senate-governor-flanagan-tafoya-demuth-klobuchar/601892154 - [2026-10-14] Flanagan's FEC cash on hand was about $1.05M against Tafoya's $1.33M as of July 30. Tafoya had a $290K debt. The Republican cash edge is small and was not matched by outside money. https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6MN00556/ - [2026-10-13] Down-ballot coattails: Klobuchar leads Demuth for governor by 7 (KSTP/SurveyUSA, 47–40). Klobuchar's lead gives a Democratic turnout floor at the top of the ticket. https://www.startribune.com/mn-midterm-election-early-voting-senate-governor-flanagan-tafoya-demuth-klobuchar/601892154 - [2026-10-12] Most likely path to YES: the usual polling advantage of 3–4 points holds, Democrats turn out more strongly in a midterm under an unpopular Republican president, and Trump's endorsement keeps Tafoya from taking enough independents. Prerequisites: - Flanagan keeps about 94% of Democrats. - Her split among independents stays no worse than the 35–40 against 40–42 seen in the polls. - The Hennepin/Ramsey margin holds, with early voting reported as heavy. - The fraud attacks don't move the undecided voters (about 7–9%). - The race doesn't produce a third-party disruption. Sources: the Oct 12 Star Tribune poll and the Oct 9 Rasmussen poll linked above. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES case is that Flanagan has led the polling average and every recent public poll after the primary except one tie. The national environment (Trump approval around 36%, far lower in Minnesota) and a lack of national Republican spending also favor her. Minnesota has elected no Republican senator since 2002, and the main caveat is a lead of only 3–4 points with the fraud issue still open. NOT FOUND: Minnesota's current Crystal Ball rating text (the 270toWin page omitted it). The full text of the KARE/Star Tribune poll and the Reformer story (both blocked on fetch). Q3 FEC filings (Oct 15 deadline, not yet out). Early-vote turnout numbers by party.

YES means: the Democratic (DFL) nominee, Peggy Flanagan, wins the 2026 Minnesota U.S. Senate election. NO means Tafoya, any other candidate, or a non-Democrat wins. - [2026-10-12] RealClearPolling's average (Sept 9–Oct 7) is Flanagan 45.3, Tafoya 43.1, a lead of only 2.2. That is tighter than the +4 averages in the earlier reports. Of the seven polls in its table, KSTP/SurveyUSA (Sept 9–14) was a 42–42 tie and co/efficient (Sept 14–15) and InsiderAdvantage (Sept 28–29) were 1-point Flanagan leads. Flanagan has not topped 48% in any poll in that table. Its race note says Tafoya at 46–47% would give Republicans "a real shot". https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2026/minnesota/tafoya-vs-flanagan (search snippet; the page itself returned 403) - [2026-10-12] In the Star Tribune poll the Hill reports, Tafoya leads independents 38–32 with 29% undecided. That differs from the 35/40/24 split in the earlier report. Outside the two core counties, Tafoya leads rural North and South Minnesota by 17 points and the non-core metro 46–44. That is the suburban swing area Republicans need. Flanagan's lead rests on Hennepin/Ramsey turnout. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6142948-minnesota-senate-poll-flanagan-tafoya/ - [2026-09-30] Before the Oct 5–7 polls, three straight polls were within one point: SurveyUSA 42–42, co/efficient 43–42 and InsiderAdvantage 46–45. CNN's Scott Jennings called it a "live ball". Center for American Progress head Neera Tanden called it "kinda worrying" for Democrats. Fetched at Mediaite. https://www.mediaite.com/politics/michele-tafoya-minnesota-polls-close-race/ - [2026-09-30] Alpha News says RealClearPolitics moved Minnesota from Lean D to Toss Up earlier in September. It put the RCP average at Flanagan +1.6 at that time. This is a partisan-leaning source and I did not confirm the RCP rating change on RCP itself. https://alphanews.org/senate-race-in-minnesota-officially-a-toss-up-as-most-recent-poll-shows-a-dead-heat/ - [2026-09-25] The NRSC says the race is "a toss up". It cites Quantus (Sept 11, Flanagan 48.2–44.4) and TIPP (Sept 8, 44–42) and says Tafoya has accepted two debates. This is a partisan source, but it adds two more polls inside 4 points. Only one debate is scheduled, per the Oct 12 MPR report. https://www.nrsc.org/press-releases/debates-new-video-and-more-fraud-2026-09-25/ - [2026-10-12] Tafoya's campaign was pitching national Republicans in person. At the Oct 5 Thune event she said "This is one worth investing in." She had not yet had the money conversation with the Senate Leadership Fund. Thune said money was hoped for but not committed. A Flanagan challenge flagged by MPR: she must have enough cash to keep pace if late GOP money arrives. MPR says Tafoya is "caught in a tough triangle" between the MAGA base, national money and an unpopular president. https://www.mprnews.org/story/2026/10/12/peggy-flanagan-michele-tafoya-senate-race-stays-quiet-in-minnesota - [2026-10-12] The Star Tribune reports the NRSC has given only $62,000 directly to Tafoya. Minnesota was left out of the NRSC's $46.5M coordinated ad push (eight states, announced in September). Thune said he had not expected Minnesota to be in play. This undercuts the NO case: Republican decision-makers are not acting as if it is winnable. Search snippet only; the page returned 429. https://www.startribune.com/national-money-is-hitting-minnesota-campaigns-why-not-the-senate-race/601899394 - [2026-10-12] Tafoya's weaknesses with her own base, per MPR: she lost the May state GOP convention endorsement. She supports "reasonable access" to abortion through 12 weeks and has backed red-flag laws. She is running a "pro-choice Republican" ad, which could depress enthusiasm among the GOP base. This works against NO. https://www.mprnews.org/story/2026/10/12/peggy-flanagan-michele-tafoya-senate-race-stays-quiet-in-minnesota - [2026-10-06] Sabato's Crystal Ball Senate ratings as of Oct 6 (270toWin) list the Minnesota matchup, but the snippet did not show the rating. The Crystal Ball moved Minnesota to Likely D in Oct 2025, saying a GOP upset was less likely than in New Hampshire. USPoliticalRank (Aug 11 snapshot) says Cook, DDHQ/The Hill, Inside Elections and Sabato all had Likely D then. Inside Elections later moved to Lean D, per the earlier reports. No major rater has moved Minnesota to Toss-up. https://uspoliticalrank.com/rankings/senate-races-2026 - [2026-10-12] The Star Tribune poll has Trump at 38% approve, 58% disapprove in Minnesota, up from 56% disapproving in June. Flanagan's independent backers cite Operation Metro Surge and the Iran war. Trump endorsed Tafoya on Oct 12, which risks tying her to an unpopular president. https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/poll-flanagan-leads-tafoya-4-180433500.html BOTTOM LINE: The strongest NO case is a race that polls inside the margin of error. Flanagan is at or below 48% in most polls, undecided independents lean Tafoya, the fraud attack is strong, and the RCP average is only +2.2. Against that, Flanagan has led every public poll, none of the major raters is at Toss-up, GOP money is largely absent, the state has not elected a Republican senator since 2002 and Trump is at 38% approval in the state, so NO still needs a polling miss of several points. NOT FOUND: Sabato's October 2026 Minnesota rating text, Inside Elections' exact current wording, the full Star Tribune article on national money (429), RCP's own rating page (403), any early-vote partisan breakdown for Minnesota, and any second debate date.