Will Sprite Point of Sale Growth for October 2026 be above 89 ?

- [2026-10-14] I could not read Carbon Arc's current Sprite October MTD value. The rendered Prisms page dropped the "Point of Sale" section ("3001 characters omitted"). Prisms is a daily-updated reference page, and its month-to-date figures compare the month so far with the same day-range a year earlier. They change until the month closes and may be revised or delayed. https://www.carbonarc.co/prisms - [~2026-09-12] An older search snapshot of the same Prisms page, dated about 32 days before 2026-10-14, listed "Point of Sale › Growth: Sprite 93.9, -6.1" and a Sprite share of 10.2% (-0.2). This is a September month-to-date reading, not October. It was below 89 by a margin of about 5 points. The snippet also contained daily September series for other brands that I could not attribute to Sprite. https://www.carbonarc.co/prisms - [2026-10-14] Prisms growth readings for other brands on the same page vary widely. Examples: McDonald's 89.1, Dollar General 87.5, Dollar Tree 93.9, Quick Service Restaurants 91.2. Several Prisms index values swing by tens of points month to month. https://www.carbonarc.co/prisms - [2026-10-14] Sibling Carbon Arc point-of-sale contracts for October 2026 (Kalshi, via Coinbase) have strikes set near each brand's recent level. C4 Energy has a ladder of strikes around 116, 124 and 132. The earlier ~112 strike was visible about 8 days ago. Pepsi September strikes were 96 and 97. Monster September was 104. These show Carbon Arc POS indices vary a lot by brand. https://www.coinbase.com/predictions/event/KXC4POS-26NOV03 - [2026-10-14] Settlement rule: the value is the finalized Carbon Arc figure recorded at 11:59 pm ET on 2026-11-03, the second calendar day after October ends. The market expires 2026-11-03. The index is a year-over-year receipt-panel measure, where 100 equals the same month a year earlier. https://www.coinbase.com/predictions/event/KXC4POS-26NOV03 - [2026-07-28] Coca-Cola Q2 2026: global unit case volume +5%, organic revenue +6%, and the company said it gained value share in non-alcoholic ready-to-drink beverages. Trademark Coca-Cola volume was +5%, helped by FIFA World Cup marketing. This is the company-level backdrop, not Sprite-specific US panel data. https://investors.coca-colacompany.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1168/coca-cola-reports-second-quarter-2026-results-and-raises-full-year-guidance - [2026-10-20] Scheduled before close: Coca-Cola Q3 2026 earnings are estimated for about 2026-10-20 (MarketBeat estimate, not confirmed by the company). It will be reported before the 11-03 settlement. https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/KO/earnings/ - [2026-04-28] Coca-Cola Q1 2026: Sprite had double-digit volume growth in Brazil, per the company release. I found no US Sprite figures. https://investors.coca-colacompany.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1168/coca-cola-reports-second-quarter-2026-results-and-raises-full-year-guidance BOTTOM LINE: I could not retrieve the current October MTD Sprite reading. The only Sprite datapoint found is an older September MTD value of about 93.9, which is above 89 but sits in a volatile index. The 89 strike suggests the market expects a reading below the September level. Forecasters should check the live Prisms Sprite value directly. NOT FOUND: Sprite's current October 2026 MTD growth value, Sprite's finalized September 2026 value, and Sprite's October 2025 comparison base. I also found no Sprite-specific news from the last 7–14 days.

I found no historical Sprite series, no past Sprite resolutions and no Sprite-specific forecast. The Carbon Arc values for Sprite are not publicly visible to me. The main lesson from the reference class is that Kalshi sets these strikes near the expected index level, so each contract is close to a coin flip around a central estimate. - [2026-09-22] Sibling Kalshi contract: Pepsi Point of Sale Growth for September 2026 resolves Yes if the Carbon Arc value is above 96. This shows strikes are set near the recent level, often below 100 for CSD brands. The index is year-over-year, with 100 meaning flat. Source: https://www.coinbase.com/en-ar/predictions/event/KXPEPSIPOS-26OCT03 (search snippet only; the page returned 403 when fetched). - [2026-10-06] Sibling contract: C4 Energy Point of Sale Growth for October 2026 has a strike of 112. It settles on finalized Carbon Arc values recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on 3 Nov (the 2nd day after month end). Source: https://www.coinbase.com/predictions/event/KXC4POS-26NOV03 (snippet only). - [2025-12 approx.] A Kalshi finance listing for Celsius Point of Sale Growth showed an "Above 85" strike. Strikes across brands therefore vary widely, from about 85 to 112, and appear to track each brand's own recent trend rather than 100. Source: https://kalshi.com/category/financials (snippet only; the page's age tag was stale). - [2026-10-14] The Sprite strike of 89 implies Carbon Arc's receipt-panel index has been running well below 100 for Sprite. The panel is a sample of receipt-scanning apps, so it can diverge from company-reported volume. I could not retrieve the recent monthly Sprite readings. - [2026-07-21 approx.] Coca-Cola Q2 2026 results: global unit case volume grew 5%, and Sprite volume grew in China. Source: https://www.coca-colacompany.com/media-center/coca-cola-reports-second-quarter-2026-results. This is company-reported volume, not the Carbon Arc panel. - [2026-09-25 approx.] Coca-Cola management cautioned that second-half comparisons get tougher. Two-year volume growth is about 2%. Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/coca-cola-sustain-growth-sparkling-122800545.html - [2026-04] Coca-Cola Q1 2026: Sprite had double-digit volume growth in Brazil. Source: https://investors.coca-colacompany.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1158/coca-cola-reports-first-quarter-2026-results-and-updates-full-year-guidance. Panel behavior for Sprite in the US is not shown. - [2026-10-14] Process: the month's index keeps updating daily until the 3 Nov snapshot. Only about 14 of 31 days of October data are in so far. A final value can differ from mid-month readings, so there is some drift risk. BOTTOM LINE: With no Sprite history found, the outside view is that Kalshi sets strikes near the trailing level, so the base rate for "above strike" is roughly even. The forecaster should anchor on the live price and on Sprite's September 2026 Carbon Arc reading, which I could not obtain. NOT FOUND: Sprite's historical Carbon Arc monthly values (such as the September 2026 reading); the Sprite October 2026 strike ladder and its live price; Carbon Arc's own published methodology or index page; any expert forecast; a track record of Kalshi Carbon Arc markets resolving Yes or No.

YES means: Carbon Arc's finalized Sprite Point of Sale Growth index for October 2026, recorded at 11:59 pm ET on 2026-11-03, is above 89 (above 89 means spend is down less than 11% year over year). - [2026-10-14] I could not read Sprite's current October value. The Prisms page, rendered in a browser, omitted its Point of Sale block (~3,000 characters). The page says month-to-date figures compare the month so far with the same day-range a year earlier, change until month-end, and may be revised or delayed. The YES case therefore rests on indirect evidence. https://www.carbonarc.co/prisms - [2026-10-14] The Prisms credit-card brand readings in the same snapshot cluster mostly in the 90s to 100s. Examples are Walmart 99.8, Target 97.8, Starbucks 96.9, Chick-fil-A 97.9 and Chipotle 92.2. Only a few big laggards sit below 89, such as Wendy's 79.9 and Dollar General 87.5. A mainstream consumer brand's typical reading is therefore above 89, which makes an 89 strike a low bar for a big brand like Sprite, unless the Sprite panel is unusually weak. https://www.carbonarc.co/prisms - [2026-04-09] Beverage Digest reported Sprite's US volume fell 3% in 2025, and Sprite dropped from No. 3 to No. 5 among US sodas. A comparison base weakened by a ~3% decline makes a year-over-year drop of 11% or more in October 2026 harder to reach, since the base is already soft. The decline is also far smaller than the 11% needed for NO. https://www.ajc.com/business/2026/04/coke-rival-pepsi-climbs-up-among-top-us-soda-brands-besting-sprite/ - [2026-08-05] Coca-Cola Consolidated, the largest US Coke bottler, reported Q2 2026 sparkling volume up 7.0%, with gains across its portfolio led by zero-sugar and flavor offerings. It credited America250 and the FIFA World Cup. Sprite is a flavor brand in that portfolio, so US bottler-level demand was strong into Q3. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000317540/000162828026053365/cokeq22026ex-991.htm - [2026-07-28] Coca-Cola's Q2 release, as filed with the SEC, shows unit case volume +5% and organic revenue +6%. The CEO said the company gained value share. This is company-wide, not Sprite-specific or panel data. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000021344/000162828026049922/a2026q2earningsreleaseex-9.htm - [~2026-10] Michael Borecki of Carbon Arc says that October's calendar alone adds 1.1 points of year-over-year growth, because the month has an extra Saturday versus 2025. This is a mechanical tailwind for any October index. The comment was made about Home Depot spend, but the effect applies to calendar-based comparisons generally. https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelborecki/ - [2026-09-?] Sprite's September month-to-date reading in the Prisms snapshot (93.9, per the colleague report) was about 5 points above the 89 strike. A repeat of that level would give YES. The 89 strike would then have to be a conservative strike, set below the recent trend, rather than at it. - [2026-09-01] Octagon AI commentary on the sibling Coors Light August market notes that Carbon Arc daily readings that month ranged from 70.3 to 91.3. This shows panel readings swing widely day to day, which is why month-to-date values can drift upward as well as downward before settlement. A weak early-month reading is therefore not final. https://www.octagonai.co/markets/financials/point-of-sale/coors-light-point-of-sale-growth-in-august - [2026-09-25] Zacks (via Yahoo Finance) says KO shares are up 26% year to date and that North America saw strong volume growth across several brands. This is a supportive backdrop, but Sprite is not named for North America. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/coca-cola-sustain-growth-sparkling-122800545.html - [2026-10-14] Most likely path to YES: Sprite's October month-to-date index stays near its September level of about 94. Prerequisites: (a) the panel's sample for Sprite holds steady, (b) the extra Saturday in October adds about a point, and (c) the Q3 bottler and Coca-Cola reports (~Oct 20) confirm continued US sparkling strength. Only about 14 of 31 days are in so far, so the final value is open. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES case is that Sprite's last visible reading (about 94) and the general Prisms brand distribution, with most brands in the 90s, both sit above 89. US sparkling volume and the October calendar help. I could not verify Sprite's actual October value. NOT FOUND: Sprite's current October month-to-date Carbon Arc value, its finalized September value, its October 2025 base, the Sprite October strike ladder, and any Sprite-specific US panel commentary.

YES means: Carbon Arc's finalized Sprite Point of Sale Growth index for October 2026, recorded at 11:59 pm ET on 2026-11-03, is above 89 (more than 11% year-over-year decline would mean No). I argue only the NO side below. - [2026-10-14] The current Prisms page shows high volatility. Index values range from 51.8 to 1677 across categories, and some brands sit 10–20 points from 100. For a brand with a thin receipt panel, the October reading could easily end up at or below 89. The "Point of Sale" block, with the Sprite line, was cut from the render ("3001 characters omitted"), so the Sprite value is still unseen. https://www.carbonarc.co/prisms - [2026-10-14] Month-to-date figures compare the month so far with the same days a year earlier. Carbon Arc says they change until month-end, and data may be revised or delayed. The 11-03 snapshot is therefore not a mid-month reading. Early-month MTD readings can also over- or understate the final value. https://www.carbonarc.co/prisms - [2026-10-14] The Prisms page itself says it publishes only relative indices on a fixed daily schedule. No dollar figures or base counts are disclosed, so the Sprite series cannot be validated or cross-checked. A strike of 89 on a series last seen at 93.9 for September (colleagues' snapshot, about 09-12) suggests the market maker expects weakness. That is an inference, not a confirmed Sprite October reading. https://www.carbonarc.co/prisms - [2026-04-09] Sprite's US sales volume fell 3% in 2025, per Beverage Digest. Sprite also dropped from No. 3 to No. 5 among US soda brands, behind Pepsi and Diet Coke. The structural US trend is negative, and the receipt panel would reflect it. A flat-to-down US brand is more likely to read below 100, which is the NO side's anchor. https://www.ajc.com/business/2026/04/coke-rival-pepsi-climbs-up-among-top-us-soda-brands-besting-sprite/ - [2026-10-10 approx.] Coca-Cola's Q2 gains were helped by the FIFA World Cup, favorable weather and an easy comparison, which left two-year average volume growth at about 2%. The Q3 comparison is harder (Q3 2025 volume was +1%), and the World Cup tailwind has ended. Coca-Cola reports Q3 on Oct. 27 per this article (colleagues listed ~Oct. 20, unconfirmed). Neither date offers Sprite US panel data before the 11-03 snapshot. https://aol.com/articles/prediction-earnings-growth-push-coca-073701000.html - [2026-09-25 approx.] Management itself flags tougher comparisons and lower-income consumers under pressure. Pressure on value-seeking shoppers is a plausible drag on spend in a receipt panel, even if company volume holds. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/coca-cola-sustain-growth-sparkling-122800545.html - [2026-07-28] North America volume grew 3% in Q2 while price/mix rose 4%. That is a company-reported figure, not panel data. A panel measuring spend should benefit from price, so this is a risk to the NO case. The NO case must lean on panel idiosyncrasies (coverage, mix shifts to larger packs and retailers outside the receipt apps). https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/28/coca-cola-ko-q2-2026-earnings.html - [2026-10-14] The Prisms Point of Sale block listed Reese's at 88.2 and Twix at 90.0 in the older snapshot. Brands in the same panel regularly land near or below 89. This shows that sub-90 prints are common in the POS series, though these are not beverage brands. https://www.carbonarc.co/prisms - [2026-10-14] Status quo and timing: the question needs a single value above 89 at one instant, 11-03 23:59 ET. Late-arriving or revised receipt data could push a borderline value either way. Ties at exactly 89 resolve No ("above 89"). https://www.coinbase.com/predictions/event/KXC4POS-26NOV03 BOTTOM LINE: The strongest NO case rests on Sprite's negative US volume trend in 2025, a harder Q3 comparison, and a noisy panel. The last Sprite print I saw (93.9, September MTD) is above the strike, so NO needs a drop of more than 5 points, or a lower October-specific reading. NOT FOUND: Sprite's October 2026 MTD value (the Point of Sale block was truncated on the render), Sprite's finalized September or earlier monthly values, Sprite's October 2025 base, and any Sprite-specific US panel or Circana/NielsenIQ data for September–October 2026.