Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?

- [2026-11-03] The general election is on Nov 3, and the market closes Nov 4. The nominees are Chris Pappas (D) and John E. Sununu (R). Republicans have not won a NH Senate race since 2010. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire (fetched) - [2026-09-08] Primaries were held on this date. Pappas won the Democratic nomination with 65%, ahead of Karishma Manzur. Sununu won the Republican nomination with 68.5%, ahead of Scott Brown. AP called both. https://www.nhpr.org/live-updates/newhampshire-primary-election-nh-midterm-election-2026 - [2026-09-15] Cook Political Report moved the race from Lean D to Toss Up. It cited the Republican money in the race and closer-than-expected polls. Inside Elections had moved it to Toss Up just before the primary. https://www.mediaite.com/politics/new-cook-political-rates-key-senate-race-a-toss-up-moves-it-away-from-democrats/ - [2026-10-06] Cook moved NH back from Toss Up to Lean Democrat, part of a broader Senate shift toward Democrats. It moved Kansas to Toss Up and NC to Likely D. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/10/06/three-senate-races-shift-toward-democrats-cook-ratings/ (fetched) - [2026-10-06] An AARP/NH Institute of Politics poll of likely voters has Pappas 51%, Sununu 44%. https://politicalwire.com/2026/10/06/pappas-leads-sununu-in-new-hampshire-senate-race/ - [2026-10-05] YouGov (Sep 28–Oct 5, n=1,520 LV) has Pappas 51%, Sununu 43%. The RCP average (Sep 9–Oct 5) is Pappas +5.9 (49.0 to 43.1). Other polls in that average: - St. Anselm (Sep 28–29): Pappas +7. - Trafalgar, R-leaning (Sep 26–27): Pappas +6. - UNH (Sep 17–21): Pappas +8. - NYT/Siena (Sep 15–22): Pappas +5. - InsiderAdvantage (Sep 16–17): Pappas +8. - co/efficient (Sep 9–11): tie. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2026/new-hampshire/pappas-vs-sununu - [2026-10-04] Rasmussen (Oct 2–4, n=979 LV) has Pappas 49%, Sununu 44%. That is narrower than its Sept 8–10 poll, which had Pappas +11. Constitution Party candidate Edmond Laplante polled 3%. https://www.newsweek.com/gops-sununu-surges-in-bid-to-flip-democrats-new-hampshire-senate-seat-12526638 - [2026-08-26] The last poll showing Sununu ahead was UNH (Aug 20–24), at 45% to 43%. UNH's Sept 17–21 poll flipped to Pappas 50%, Sununu 42%. https://www.wcax.com/2026/09/24/poll-shows-pappas-opens-lead-new-hampshire-senate-race/ - [2026-10-12] Local coverage says about $50M has been spent on the race, much of it outside money. Recent polls show Pappas up 7–8 points. Sununu is distancing himself from Trump on the Iran war and the Canada trade war. https://wgme.com/news/local/democrat-chris-pappas-appears-to-hold-narrow-lead-over-gop-republican-john-sununu-in-new-hampshire-senate-race - [2026-10-05] Poliwave's forecast rates the race Likely D, with Pappas +6.7. Pollsmax's polling average is Pappas +5.3. https://www.poliwave.com/us/nh/sen-fed - [2026-09-08] Early-September prediction-market and polling context from Newsweek: Kalshi and Polymarket had Democrats at about 83%, and the RCP average was Pappas +2. RCP's page now shows Polymarket Pappas 91%, a snapshot taken on an unspecified date that may be stale. https://www.newsweek.com/sununu-pappas-new-hampshire-senate-race-polls-12419856 BOTTOM LINE: Pappas has led every public poll since mid-September except one tie, with an average of about +6, and Cook upgraded him to Lean D on Oct 6. Sununu is a strong, well-funded nominee and the race was a tie or Sununu lead in late August, but momentum has run toward the Democrat. No call from AP, Fox or NBC exists yet. NOT FOUND: Any poll dated after Oct 6, current Sabato/Inside Elections ratings, and FEC pre-general fundraising figures. I also could not open The Hill's article page, though the search snippet is consistent with the other sources.

- [2026-10-14] Race: Democrat Chris Pappas vs Republican John E. Sununu, for the open seat of retiring Sen. Shaheen (D). Pappas won the Democratic primary with 65%. Sununu won the Republican primary with 68.5%, beating Scott Brown. The general election is Nov 3, 2026. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire - [2026-10-14] Base rate: Republicans have not won a Senate election in New Hampshire since 2010. Shaheen won in 2014 by 3.2 points (51.6–48.4) and in 2020 by 15.7 points (56.7–41.0). RCP page: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2026/new-hampshire/pappas-vs-sununu - [2026-10-14] State lean: Harris won NH by 2.8 points in 2024. Republicans hold the governorship (Ayotte), and the state's congressional delegation is all Democratic. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2026/new-hampshire/pappas-vs-sununu - [2026-10-05] RCP average (9/15–10/5) is Pappas 49.4, Sununu 42.7, a Pappas lead of 6.7. Recent individual polls all show Pappas ahead: YouGov +8 (9/28–10/5), St. Anselm +7, Trafalgar (R) +6, UNH +8, NYT/Siena +5, InsiderAdvantage +8, Rasmussen +5. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2026/new-hampshire/pappas-vs-sununu - [2026-09-11] Close polls earlier in the cycle: co/efficient (9/9–9/11) had a 46–46 tie, and UNH (8/20–8/24) had Sununu +2 (45–43). Emerson in March had Pappas +1. Since then Pappas has led every poll in the RCP list. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2026/new-hampshire/pappas-vs-sununu - [2026-10-06] An AARP/NHIP poll of likely voters had Pappas 51, Sununu 44. The AARP poll found Pappas leading 51% to 44%. https://politicalwire.com/2026/10/06/pappas-leads-sununu-in-new-hampshire-senate-race/ - [2026-10-06] Cook Political Report moved NH from Toss-up to Lean D on Oct 6. Cook said that in a state where Trump is deeply underwater, Pappas is the favorite. Cook also said the race could still end up closer than it should be. Cook's earlier moves: Lean D in Feb 2025, then Toss-up around mid-September 2026, then Lean D again. https://www.cookpolitical.com/senate/race/488636 - [2026-09-17] Other raters: Inside Elections moved the race from Tilt D to Toss-up shortly before the Sept. 8 primary. Sabato's Crystal Ball was Lean D in March 2026 and, per The Hill, also moved the race toward Democrats in early October. RealClearPolitics rates it Leans Dem. Poliwave's model rates it Likely D, with a forecast margin of D+6.7. Ratings: https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2026 and https://www.poliwave.com/us/nh/sen-fed - [2026-10-12] Environment: CNBC describes a tough cycle for Republicans, with the Iran war dragging on and Trump's popularity slumping. A local report says a month ago Pappas held a slim two-point lead, and the latest polls show a seven- to eight-point lead. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/08/new-hampshire-primary-senate-scott-brown-john-sununu-chris-pappas-karishma-manzur.html and https://wgme.com/news/local/democrat-chris-pappas-appears-to-hold-narrow-lead-over-gop-republican-john-sununu-in-new-hampshire-senate-race - [2026-10-10] Boston Globe: Statewide polls show a close contest, and so far Pappas hasn't relinquished the lead. Sununu would return after an 18-year gap. https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/10/10/nation/john-e-sununu-new-hampshire-chris-pappas/ - [2026-10-14] RCP's page shows a Polymarket price for the Pappas/D side, which I did not use as an input. RCP's own race write-up says that given the environment Pappas probably pulls it out, but Sununu is the kind of candidate who can outrun a Democratic wave. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2026/new-hampshire/pappas-vs-sununu - [2026-10-14] Timing: NH polls close Nov 3, and the NH margin is usually called on election night. The recent 2014 (3.2 points) and 2020 (15.7 points) NH Senate margins were not close enough to need recount-style delay. A call by AP, Fox and NBC on election night is likely unless the margin is under about 1 point. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2026/new-hampshire/pappas-vs-sununu BOTTOM LINE: The outside view favors the Democrat. The GOP hasn't won an NH Senate race since 2010, the Democratic nominee leads every poll since early September by about 5–8 points, and the major raters sit at Lean D, with Cook's move toward Democrats on Oct 6 the most recent. The main upside for the GOP is Sununu's strong brand and the chance that the polls understate Republicans, as 2014 showed in a narrower race. NOT FOUND: Final Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections ratings for October, since Cook and The Hill pages returned 403. The Silver Bulletin, 538-style or Economist model probabilities for this race. Historical polling-miss statistics for NH Senate races.

YES means: Republican nominee John E. Sununu is called the winner of the Nov 3, 2026 New Hampshire U.S. Senate race. The call must come from AP, Fox and NBC, or else from official certification. - [2026-10-05] **Most likely path to YES.** Sununu runs well ahead of the Republican brand and Pappas's lead narrows toward the 2014 and 2016 pattern, when close NH Senate races broke late. Prerequisites: - Independents, who are 43% of the electorate, split for Sununu. - The 8% of voters who prefer a Democratic Senate but back Sununu stay with him. - Gov. Ayotte's coattails and a Democratic enthusiasm gap hold. - TIME's reporting backs each of these points. - Source: https://time.com/article/2026/10/05/new-hampshire-blue-wave-republicans-sununu-pappas/ (fetched) - [2026-10-05] **Vote-choice gap in the NYT/Siena poll.** Democrats lead by 9 points on which party people want controlling the Senate, yet Pappas leads by only 5. About 8% of voters who prefer a Democratic Senate say they will vote for Sununu. That is the crossover mechanism a Sununu win needs. Same source as above. - [2026-10-05] **Character and enthusiasm gap.** In the NYT/Siena poll, 42% of voters say Sununu "has good character", and independents favor him on that by 10 points over Pappas. 85% of Republicans are satisfied with Sununu as their nominee, against 75% of Democrats for Pappas. Same TIME source. - [2026-10-05] **Counterweight to the Trump drag.** The same poll has Trump at 60% disapproval in NH, 65% among independents. Sununu is the one Republican who has distanced himself from Trump on the Iran war and the Canada trade war (Oct 12 report). The Sununu brand is built on the "Bush wing" family, not MAGA. Same TIME source. - [2026-10-04] **Rasmussen crosstabs show a competitive independent vote.** Sununu has 44% of unaffiliated voters to Pappas's 40%. He also leads among men (53–42) and voters under 40. Pappas draws 15% of Republicans, against 8% of Democrats for Sununu. Pappas's +5 depends on women (53–33) and seniors (58–39). https://www.newsweek.com/gops-sununu-surges-in-bid-to-flip-democrats-new-hampshire-senate-seat-12526638 - [2026-09-17] **Republican money advantage.** SLF has committed $17M, its largest NH investment in a decade. The Trump-linked No Going Back PAC has about $10M reserved and had already spent $1.8M against Pappas. One Nation has $6M. Republican groups have reserved more than $31M for the final two months. Senate Majority PAC has $10.2M. Pappas said on Boston 25 News that his side is being outspent (TIME, Oct 5). https://granitepostnews.com/news/politics/trump-super-pac-sununu/ (fetched) - [2026-09-17] **Cash is level despite Pappas's fundraising lead.** Pappas had $14.6M in contributions to Sununu's $4.1M through Aug 19. Cash on hand was close going into September: $3.84M for Pappas and $3.02M for Sununu. Sununu spent more slowly. In June the Supreme Court struck down coordinated-spending limits, so the NRSC can now spend unlimited amounts alongside him. Same Granite Post source. - [2026-10-05] **Funders of the Trump-linked PAC stay hidden until Oct 22.** That is the FEC filing date for No Going Back PAC, so a late disclosure of further spending is possible. Same Granite Post source (published Sept 17, with the Oct 22 filing date stated in it). - [2026-09-15] **Cook's reasoning for its Toss Up move.** Cook's editor wrote that the central question was whether Sununu's brand could escape Trump's unpopularity, perhaps helped by Ayotte's strong showing atop the ticket. Cook also conceded the rating could move back toward Democrats. It did, on Oct 6 (Lean D). The Toss Up rating was recent. Inside Elections also moved the race to Toss-up, citing Sununu's momentum in public and private polling. https://www.thecentersquare.com/new_hampshire/article_493742a9-71c5-4520-a285-94fefdcbee85.html - [2026-09-17] **Ayotte's ballot strength.** UNH polling in spring had Ayotte up 47–39 on Warmington and winning 48% of independents. It also had Pappas at only 45% among independents against Sununu. Ayotte's 2024 win and its coattail effect are the best-documented ticket-splitting mechanism. https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1943&context=survey_center_polls - [2026-07-16] **Earlier polls were tied.** Emerson in March had Pappas 45, Sununu 44. UNH's Aug 20–24 poll had Sununu ahead 45–43. So Pappas's current 5–8 point lead is recent, from the last month. It could prove transient, as Rasmussen's drop from +11 to +5 between September and early October may show. https://emersoncollegepolling.com/new-hampshire-2026-sununu-leads-gop-nomination-ties-pappas-for-senate/ - [2026-10-05] **Historical precedent for the "bucking the trend" case.** TIME says a NH upset would be "very on-brand" even in a Democratic wave. In 2016 Ayotte lost by about 1,000 votes in a polling dead heat (Ballotpedia). Hassan beat Ayotte narrowly that year, so close NH Senate races have broken either way. https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2026 BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES case is a ticket-splitting upset. Sununu would need to win independents and the crossover voters (8% prefer a Democratic Senate but back him), helped by a large outside-money edge and Ayotte's coattails. Every public poll since mid-September has Pappas ahead, so YES requires a polling miss or a late swing of about 6 points. NOT FOUND: Any poll after Oct 6, current Sabato/Inside Elections ratings, and FEC pre-general fundraising reports. I could not find AdImpact's current total of ad spending by candidate.

YES means: Republican nominee John E. Sununu wins the 2026 New Hampshire U.S. Senate race, as called by AP, Fox and NBC or else by official certification. Democrat Chris Pappas winning, or any non-Republican winning, resolves NO. - [2026-09-16] Sabato's Crystal Ball did not follow Cook and Inside Elections to Toss-up. It said a Democratic federal loss in NH in 2026 would be "odd" but "not impossible". Democrats have not lost a federal race in NH in the Trump era. Crystal Ball's Oct 6 rating-change list covers Alaska and South Carolina, not NH. Sabato's earlier rating was Lean D, and its Oct 6 NH rating is unconfirmed. https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/seven-weeks-to-go-polling-not-getting-better-for-republicans-8-house-rating-changes/ - [2026-10-06] The Oct 6 Senate rating changes moved Alaska to Leans D and South Carolina to Likely R. The national environment is moving toward Democrats, so a Republican win in NH would run against a wave. Time reports Trump disapproval in NH at 60% overall and 65% among independents (NYT/Siena). https://time.com/article/2026/10/05/new-hampshire-blue-wave-republicans-sununu-pappas/ - [2026-10-06] The "AARP/NHIP" poll (n=1,042 LV, Sept 28–29) has the same dates and sample size as the St. Anselm entry in RCP's list. It is probably the same poll counted twice in the colleagues' lists, so there are fewer independent post-primary polls than they suggest. The Hill reports the margin as Pappas +7. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6132186-pappas-leads-nh-senate-poll/ - [2026-09-24] UNH's Sept 17–21 poll (n=1,418 LV) had Pappas 50, Sununu 42, with 4% undecided and 2% for Constitution Party candidate Laplante. Pappas is under 50% in the Rasmussen poll and in the RCP average of 49. In a state with a 1-point UNH-type swing, the margin is a 6–8 point lead, not a lock. https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2004&context=survey_center_polls - [2026-09-11] The co/efficient poll (R-aligned, n=958 LV) had a 46–46 tie. Its favorability numbers were Pappas 37 favorable / 51 unfavorable and Sununu 41 / 47. Pappas had a net -14 in that poll, which makes him an unusually weak frontrunner. The poll's party-registration weighting was R 36 / D 30 / other 34, and 49% of its sample was aged 65+. https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/nh/ - [2026-10-05] Time reports polling that cuts toward a Sununu path. Pappas leads by 5 in the NYT/Siena poll, though Democrats hold a 9-point edge on which party voters want controlling the Senate. 8% of voters who prefer a Democratic Senate say they will vote for Sununu. Sununu also leads Pappas by 10 among independents on "good character", and Democrats are less satisfied with their nominee (75%) than Republicans with theirs (85%). https://time.com/article/2026/10/05/new-hampshire-blue-wave-republicans-sununu-pappas/ - [2026-10-04] In the Rasmussen poll (Oct 2–4), Sununu has 44% of unaffiliated voters to Pappas's 40%. Pappas has 15% of Republicans and Sununu has 8% of Democrats. The previous Rasmussen poll (Sept 8–10) was Pappas +11 with Sununu at 34%, so Rasmussen's own trend moved 6 points toward Sununu. https://www.newsweek.com/gops-sununu-surges-in-bid-to-flip-democrats-new-hampshire-senate-seat-12526638 - [2026-09-17] GOP outside groups have booked over $31 million for the final stretch (CNN via Quartz), against roughly $18.5 million in Democratic reservations. The Hill's AdImpact data of about Sept 17 showed Republicans $6.7M aired plus $25M+ reserved, against Democrats $4.2M aired plus nearly $15M reserved. Pappas has said he is being outspent about 3-to-1 on TV. Pappas has raised $15M to Sununu's $4.1M, so the ad gap comes from outside money. https://qz.com/pappas-sununu-new-hampshire-senate-primary-091726 - [2026-10-05] Outside spending is above $50M in a state with fewer than 1 million registered voters, and a Time source calls Sununu's brand "bullet-proof" in NH. Time notes Sununu is not seen as a MAGA cheerleader. Time also notes that a state that "bucks the trend" in a wave would be on-brand for NH. https://time.com/article/2026/10/05/new-hampshire-blue-wave-republicans-sununu-pappas/ - [2026-09-11] Republicans carry Ayotte at +11 for governor in the polling averages (Wikipedia, Oct 6 aggregates), and co/efficient has her at 55–34. Ticket-splitting is established: NH elected a Republican governor while backing Harris, and Republicans have a state trifecta. This is a mechanism for a Sununu win that does not depend on Trump's popularity. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_New_Hampshire_gubernatorial_election - [2026-04-23] UNH polls kept Pappas ahead through the spring (+6 Sept 2025, +5 Jan, +7 April). The Pappas lead then narrowed to +3 on June 30 (47–44) and flipped to Sununu +2 in Aug. This shows the lead is volatile and has narrowed before. https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1973&context=survey_center_polls - [2026-10-14] Technicality: the resolution is by AP, Fox and NBC calling the same candidate, or else official certification. Independents or minor-party candidates (Laplante, Day, Harris and others) cannot change the "Republican" outcome unless Sununu wins. Their 2–4% shares could take a point or two from either side. No scenario found that changes the nominee before Nov 3. Nominees are set, so there is no replacement risk and no run-off. BOTTOM LINE: The status quo, which is the Democratic hold, is the default. No Republican has won an NH Senate race since 2010, and Pappas has led all post-primary polls by about 5–8 points, though one tie (co/efficient, Sept 9–11) and Sununu's late-August lead show Republican upside remains. For the NO case the strongest points are the national environment moving toward Democrats and Cook's Oct 6 move back to Lean D, against a smaller volatility risk that Sununu's brand and the GOP money advantage close the gap. NOT FOUND: Any NH poll dated after Oct 6, and a confirmed current Sabato rating for NH. The Sabato Oct 6 changes page (snippet only) did not show NH. Also not found: Q3 FEC pre-general figures, and a Silver Bulletin, Economist or DDHQ NH win probability.