Will USD-denominated stablecoin market share fall below 99% in 2026?

- [2026-04 data, published 2026-05-20] Artemis data (via CoinTurk) shows USD stablecoins at 99.76% of supply (about $317B). Non-USD tokens were $771M, or 0.24%. That share had slipped from 0.26% in May 2021. https://en.coin-turk.com/usd-backed-stablecoins-hit-99-76-percent-market-share-in-2026/ - [2026-09-28] Euro stablecoins passed $900M, a record. EURC is about $526M and EURCV about $171M. USD stablecoins are described as about $300B. Euro stablecoins alone would be roughly 0.3% of the total. https://gokhshtein.com/news/2026-09-28-euro-stablecoin-market-cap-hits-900m-eurc-commands-626-share - [2026-08-13] DefiLlama put total supply at $308.0B, below the $322.4B peak of 2026-05-17. The USD share was about 99.5%. Non-USD supply was about $2B, which is probably a broader count than Artemis's $771M. These are secondary-source figures. https://reap.global/blog/stablecoin-statistics-2026 - [2026-08, undated by source] A tracker also puts the market at about 99.5% USD, with non-USD about $2B and up about 42% in 2026. https://www.spark.money/tools/stablecoin-market-cap-tracker - [2026-05-24] Non-USD stablecoins were about 0.4% of supply, so USD was 99.6%. EURC was near $450M. https://cryptocurrencyhelp.com/news/non-usd-stablecoins-grow-3-54x-but-just-0-4-market-supply/ - [2026-03-30] A Dune/Visa report put non-USD supply at $1.2B, against a $313B total market. That implies a USD share of roughly 99.6%. https://www.forbes.com/sites/boazsobrado/2026/03/30/non-dollar-stablecoins-hit-12-billion-as-local-currencies-go-on-chain/ - [Artemis dashboard snapshot, date unclear, likely Sept–Oct 2026] Artemis shows total supply of $315.6B, down 0.2% over 30 days. The all-time high is $323.5B, and the snapshot shows 155 tokens tracked. https://app.artemisanalytics.com/stablecoins - [2026-10-14] The resolution page (artemis.ai/sectors/stablecoins/by-token) is a JavaScript app. It returned only "Loading…", so the monthly USD percentages could not be read directly. https://www.artemis.ai/sectors/stablecoins/by-token - [2025-11] The ECB said USD stablecoins were around 99% of supply, with euro stablecoins at about €395M. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publications/fsr/focus/2025/html/ecb.fsrbox202511_05~63636227b4.en.html BOTTOM LINE: Every 2026 reading I found, from Artemis and others, puts the USD share at about 99.5–99.8%, so non-USD would need to roughly double or triple its share (to above 1%) by the December data point. Euro stablecoins are growing, at about $0.9B in late September, but the total market is about $310B+, and I found no trigger that would move the share that far before 2027-01-01. NOT FOUND: The actual Artemis "Supply by Currency Peg" monthly percentages for May–October 2026. The Artemis page did not render. I also found no scheduled event that would shift the share, and no 2026 source showing USD below 99%.

- [2026-10-14] Artemis' live "By Token" page lists a total supply of $315.4B across 155 tokens. USDT is $184.6B (58.6%) and USDC is $73.2B (23.2%). The page shows gold tokens as stablecoins (TETHERGOLD $3.1B, PAXGOLD $1.8B, XAUT0 $69.9M). EURC is $498.7M, EURCV $160.1M, EURS $7.6M and EURQ $6.2M. Every euro token is under $1B. I could not read the "Supply by Currency Peg" chart's USD % in the rendered page. https://www.artemis.ai/sectors/stablecoins/by-token - [2026-05-20] Artemis data for April 2026, the most recent monthly point I found, put USD at 99.76% (about $317B). Non-USD supply was $771M (0.24%). Non-USD share was 0.26% in May 2021, so it has not trended upward over five years. https://en.coin-turk.com/usd-backed-stablecoins-hit-99-76-percent-market-share-in-2026/ - [2026-08-31] Stablecoin Beat (not Artemis) shows USD-pegged supply at 99.1% at end-August 2026. The USD segment was $287.51B of $303.95B. Its figure is lower than Artemis' April reading, which may reflect a different methodology or token classification. https://stablecoinbeat.com/monthly/2026-08/ - [2026-09-29] A Rise Q3 report citing Stablecoin Beat gives USD-pegged tokens as 99.4% of supply. Total supply was $304.2B, roughly $16B below the May peak. https://www.riseworks.io/blog/q3-2026-stablecoin-trends-report - [2026-08-13] DefiLlama/Reap put the market at about 99.5% USD. Non-USD stablecoins were about $2B, an all-time high, up about 42% in 2026. The BIS figure was 99.4%. These figures are all above 99%, with only about 0.4–0.9 pt of headroom. https://reap.global/blog/stablecoin-statistics-2026 - [2026-09-28] Euro stablecoins passed $900M, a record. The previous peak was $721M in early 2022. Euro stablecoin cap more than doubled in 12 months after MiCA, against 26% growth for the whole market. Euro is about 0.3% of the total. https://gokhshtein.com/news/2026-09-28-euro-stablecoin-market-cap-hits-900m-eurc-commands-626-share - [2026-07] CoinGecko shows euro stablecoins at about $783M, or roughly 0.25% of the market. That is up from about $480M in June 2025 and about $50M at the start of 2024. https://blog.stabolut.com/euro-stablecoins-landscape-2026.html - [2026-06] CoinGecko estimated the dollar segment at about $302.1B against euro at about $727M. Non-dollar was under 1% in total. https://coinspaidmedia.com/research/stablecoin-market-h1-2026-market-analysis/ - [2025 and 2026] Base rate: USD share has been above 99% in every reference I found. The Artemis report from 2025 says over 99%. The ECB says around 99%. April 2026 on Artemis was 99.76%. I found no historical month on Artemis below 99%. https://reports.artemisanalytics.com/stablecoins/artemis-stablecoin-payments-from-the-ground-up-2025.pdf - [2026-10-14] Artemis' own dashboard carries prediction-market widgets (e.g. "Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027?"). I found no expert forecast or poll on the USD share falling below 99%. https://app.artemisanalytics.com/stablecoins BOTTOM LINE: Outside view: USD share on Artemis is about 99.4–99.8%, and non-USD supply would need to roughly triple to about 1% of the total in the remaining ~2.5 months. Non-USD supply is growing but only by hundreds of millions of dollars. The main tail risk is classification: if Artemis counts gold-pegged tokens (about $5B, roughly 1.6% of supply) as non-USD, the monthly chart could already read below 99%. The April 99.76% reading suggests it does not. NOT FOUND: The actual Artemis "Supply by Currency Peg" monthly values for May–October 2026, and whether gold tokens are classified as USD or non-USD. Any pre-2026 history of the USD share below 99%. Any formal forecast of the USD share.

YES means: Artemis's "Supply by Currency Peg" chart shows the USD share below 99% for any monthly data point in 2026. A point counts once the next month's point is published. - [2025-11-07] Artemis's own October 2025 update put non-USD supply at about $600M, down from an $800M peak, with the market "99% USD". It was loose wording, not a precise figure. Non-USD supply on Artemis had already been above $0.77B and has gone sideways for about a year, so Artemis's non-USD category is small and not clearly growing. This is the weak side of the YES case. https://about.artemis.ai/resources/stablecoin-update-october-2025 - [2026-05-20] CoinDesk, citing Artemis, confirms that the April 2026 point of 99.76% used a non-USD set of euro, CAD, JPY, SGD and "other". The category listed does not include gold. The source says non-USD share slipped from 0.26% (May 2021) to 0.24%. This fits the base-rate and current-state reports. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/05/20/non-dollar-stablecoins-are-struggling-to-crack-0-5-of-market-share - [2026-10 snapshots] Artemis's classic overview page lists Artemis-tracked tokens including XAUT among top net supply changes, and its stablecoin pages list "Pegged Currency" as a breakdown. Gold tokens are in the stablecoin universe. If any monthly point classes gold as a separate or non-USD peg, the non-USD share would rise by roughly 1.6% (about $5B, per the base-rate report). That alone could push USD below 99%. This is the single most likely YES path, but April's 99.76% argues against it. https://classic.artemis.ai/stablecoins?granularity=daily - [2026-10-06] PAXG market cap is about $1.82B (Coinbase). The base-rate report puts total gold tokens at about $5B on Artemis. A further jump in gold price or in tokenized-gold supply would push the non-USD share higher only if Artemis counts gold as non-USD. https://www.coinbase.com/price/pax-gold - [2026-08-13] Other aggregators already show non-USD at about $2B (about 0.5% of supply, up 42% YTD). If Artemis added tokens, or reclassified some from "other", its non-USD figure could move toward that level. That would still leave USD around 99.4–99.5%, so the gap to 99% remains about 0.4–0.5 points (roughly $1.3–1.5B more). https://reap.global/blog/stablecoin-statistics-2026 - [2026-08-31] Stablecoin Beat's USD-pegged share was 99.1% at end-August, and the Rise Q3 report had 99.4%. The Stablecoin Beat figure is the closest any tracker has come to 99%. A gap of 0.1 point is about $300M. A dataset with similar methodology plus a roughly $1B non-USD gain could cross 99%. It is not Artemis data. https://stablecoinbeat.com/monthly/2026-08/ - [2026-10-14] Artemis's dashboard shows total supply of $315.6B, down 0.2% in 30 days and 2.4% below its $323.5B ATH. Total supply is flat to falling while euro tokens grow, so non-USD share is edging up by denominator effect. Euro stablecoins reached about 0.3% of the total (Sept 28 report), so the ratio rises slowly. https://app.artemisanalytics.com/stablecoins - [2026-06 to 2026-09] CoinGecko's June figure was euro about $727M and its July figure about $783M. The late-September record was above $900M. That is about +$170M in roughly three months, or about +0.05 points of share per quarter. At that pace non-USD would stay around 0.3–0.6% by December. Only a discrete event would cross 1%, such as a large non-USD launch, a reclassification, or a big USD burn. https://blog.stabolut.com/euro-stablecoins-landscape-2026.html BOTTOM LINE: The YES case rests on a classification or data-methodology shift, such as gold tokens (about 1.6% of supply) or other tokens being counted as non-USD, or a large new non-USD issuance. Organic non-USD growth does not get from 99.76% to under 99% by the December point. No source shows an Artemis monthly point below 99%. NOT FOUND: Artemis "Supply by Currency Peg" monthly values for May–October 2026. How Artemis classifies gold tokens (the page was not readable). Any scheduled large non-USD stablecoin launch. Any source showing Artemis below 99% in 2026.

YES means: the Artemis "Supply by Currency Peg" chart shows a monthly USD share below 99% for any month in 2026. Per the question text, the market resolves Yes on that basis. - [2026-05-20] I fetched the CoinDesk piece (Sam Reynolds). It confirms the April 2026 Artemis reading of 99.76% USD and $771M non-USD. It says the non-USD share "slipped" from 0.26% in May 2021, so five years of non-USD growth produced no share gain on Artemis. Below 99% would need the non-USD share to roughly quadruple, from about 0.24% to more than 1%. The article is titled "struggling to crack 0.5%". https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/05/20/non-dollar-stablecoins-are-struggling-to-crack-0-5-of-market-share - [2026-10-13] A CryptoTicker piece, fetched, covers the Financial Stability Board note to the G20 dated 2026-10-12. It puts the market at about $300B at mid-2026, practically flat year on year, with 99% pegged to the dollar. An official body is still describing 99% (rounded) as the status quo, with no sign of an erosion trend. The FSB figure is rounded, so it is not a finer measure than the others. https://cryptoticker.io/en/fsb-stablecoin-cross-border-risks-oversight/ - [2026-10-06] DefiLlama, via Stablecoin Insider, puts euro stablecoins at about $857M against about $314B of dollar stablecoins. That gives euro at roughly 0.27% and USD at well above 99%, even with euro at a record. https://stablecoininsider.org/best-european-stablecoins/ - [2026-09-09] Token Terminal data shows euro stablecoins up only $156M year to date (from $691.7M to $848.1M). Dollar stablecoins added $159M over the same period. Net new supply was about equal, so euro growth has not shifted share materially. Analysts attribute the euro growth to issuer supply rather than user demand. https://crypto-economy.com/euro-stablecoin-supply-hits-848-1m-after-adding-156m-this-year/ - [2026-09-09] The same coverage notes dollar supply was almost flat (from $298.54B to $298.70B). Share can only fall via a large non-USD jump or a large USD contraction. USD supply is flat to slightly down, and Artemis showed total supply down 0.2% over 30 days, so there is no sign of a collapse. A dollar-supply drop of the size needed would be a regime change, not drift. https://www.coinreporter.io/2026/09/euro-stablecoins-add-156-million-ytd-as-dollar-supply-stays-flat/ - [2026-09-30] Open USD, a new dollar stablecoin backed by Coinbase, Mastercard, Shopify, Stripe and Visa, launched on 2026-09-30. It adds to dollar supply rather than diluting it. The Polymarket USD wrapper (cutover 2026-04-28) is 1:1 USDC-backed and does not change the USD share. https://cryptoticker.io/en/fsb-stablecoin-cross-border-risks-oversight/ - [2026-10-14, deadline arithmetic] The page was not readable, but this much follows. Monthly points are used: Jan–Sep are already published. The October point finalizes when November prints, and November when December prints. Only the Oct, Nov and Dec 2026 points can still decide a Yes. The December point may only finalize in January 2027, after the 2027-01-01 close. Under that reading, at most October and November are cleanly finalized before close. That leaves very little time for a swing of 0.5–1 percentage point in share. Evidence for this reading: the Polymarket rule text says a point is final once the next month's is published. https://polymarket.com/event/will-usd-denominated-stablecoin-market-share-fall-below-99-in-2026 - [2026-10-14, resolution-source drift] The market's rules cite two different Artemis pages. The earlier Polymarket page text names app.artemisanalytics.com and the "Stablecoin Supply by Currency" chart. The question as given names artemis.ai/sectors/stablecoins/by-token and "Supply by Currency Peg". Ambiguity about the source favors the status quo. If the source is unreadable, the fallback is "other reliable crypto data sources", and every one I found (DefiLlama, Token Terminal, FSB, BIS) shows USD at or above 99.1%. https://polymarket.com/event/will-usd-denominated-stablecoin-market-share-fall-below-99-in-2026 - [2026-10-14, sibling contract] The Polymarket stablecoin hub (snapshot dated roughly 2026-10-12/13) lists this contract as ending "in 3 months". Sibling stablecoin contracts there include $500B before 2027 (at 0.06 in the page's schema snapshot) and a USDC depeg (0.07). No market-implied signal of a regime change beyond what the colleagues' reports already contain. https://polymarket.com/predictions/stablecoins - [2026-10-14] The Artemis dashboard snapshot shows total supply of $315.6B, down 0.2% over 30 days, against an ATH of $323.5B. A shrinking denominator, with USD tokens like USDT and USDC making up most of the fall, does not point to share loss. It is consistent with a stable mix. https://app.artemisanalytics.com/stablecoins - [2026-05-13] Token Terminal had euro stablecoins at a then-record $774.2M. Five months later they sit around $850–900M, roughly +$80–125M, or only about 0.03 percentage points of share. At that pace, the euro segment would add under 0.1 percentage point of share by year-end. https://thedefiant.io/news/markets/eur-stablecoins-774-million-all-time-high-1whggq BOTTOM LINE: Every readable measure puts USD at 99.1–99.8%, euro growth adds only hundredths of a percentage point per quarter, and at most two or three monthly points remain. A Yes would most likely come from a classification quirk (for example gold tokens counted as non-USD) rather than market movement. April's 99.76% reading on the Artemis chart argues against that. NOT FOUND: The Artemis monthly "Supply by Currency Peg" USD percentages for May–Oct 2026, because the page did not render. I found no Artemis month below 99% in any source. I also found no confirmation of how Artemis classifies gold-pegged tokens, and no stated rule on how many monthly points can finalize before 2027-01-01.