Will Diesel Price on October 31, 2026 be above $7.50?

- [2026-10-13] AAA national average diesel was $6.28 on Tuesday Oct 13, up 72% on a year ago. That is $1.22 below the $7.50 strike. https://cnbc.com/2026/10/13/trump-putin-zelenskyy-russia-ukraine-diesel-oil-price.html - [2026-10-13] NPR gives AAA diesel as $6.27, "come down a little" from the September all-time high. https://npr.org/2026/10/13/nx-s1-6000118/how-will-a-diesel-deal-with-russia-impact-the-u-s-market - [2026-10-08] EIA's daily page, which republishes AAA, showed U.S. diesel at $6.28 on 10/08/26. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/prices.php - [2026-10-05] EIA weekly on-highway diesel was $6.199 (released Oct 6). It was $6.382 on Sep 28 and $6.529 on Sep 21, the record high. California was $8.082 and the West Coast $7.229. Every region and the U.S. average is below $7.50 except California, which is above it. The next EIA release was due Oct 14, and I have not seen it. https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/ - [2026-10-13] GasBuddy national average diesel was $6.248, down 5.9 cents on the week. The median was $6.09, and the top 10% of stations averaged $6.90. https://www.rigzone.com/news/gasbuddy_flags_fragile_calm_at_the_pump-13-oct-2026-184834-article - [2026-09-04] AAA diesel set a record of $5.85, passing the June 2022 high of $5.8159. It has risen further since then. https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/national-average-price-diesel-hits-new-record-high-amid-iran-conflict - [2026-10-13] NYMEX ULSD settled at $4.7232 on Monday Oct 12, and was around $4.82 on Tuesday morning. It had settled at $4.5694 on Oct 6 and topped $4.88 by Oct 8. The record settlement was $5.262 on Sep 15. https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/russian-diesel-deal-having-limited-154850828.html - [2026-10-09] ULSD fell 4.6% to $4.73 after Trump announced a deal for Russia to supply 300,000 tons of diesel. U.S. distillate stocks were 105.1M bbl, 13.5% below a year ago. https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/world-policy/article/2026/10/09/ulsd-futures-fall-4-us-russia-diesel - [2026-10-13] Analysts see the Russia deal as small, roughly 10 days of U.S. demand in total. Trump dropped the idea of a diesel export ban. https://cnbc.com/2026/10/13/trump-putin-zelenskyy-russia-ukraine-diesel-oil-price.html - [2026-10-06] On Oct 5 Trump signed an executive order temporarily allowing tax-exempt dyed diesel on highways. FreightWaves says it has hit a regulatory maze and is largely dismissed. Kalshi traders were reportedly pricing a Nov 3 level of about $6.20 or lower. https://cryptobriefing.com/kalshi-traders-us-diesel-prices-620/ - [2026-10-13] WTI crude (Nov) was $94.79. The Iran war and Hormuz disruption continue. The CNN piece reports no resolution. https://cnn.com/2026/10/13/politics/kfile-kansas-roger-marshall-gas-prices-iran - [2026-10-13] The EIA STEO says retail diesel will stay above $6 in October and then fall gradually. This is a forecast and has no date. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/petro_prod.php - [2026-09-25] Sibling Kalshi year-end 2026 contract ladder (snapshot about Sep 25; may be stale): above $6.20 about 57%, above $6.40 about 38%. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxdielseye/diesel-prices-at-year-end/kxdielseye-26dec31 BOTTOM LINE: Diesel is about $6.2–6.3, roughly $1.20 (about 19%) below $7.50, and has drifted down from the $6.53 EIA weekly record on Sep 21. ULSD futures at about $4.7–4.8 imply retail prices near current levels. Reaching $7.50 by Oct 31 would need a very large supply shock, such as an escalation in Hormuz, and there is no sign of one yet. NOT FOUND: the Oct 14 EIA release. The exact Kalshi resolution source for this contract; the sibling contracts are AAA-based, so it is likely AAA or EIA. Any scheduled catalyst before Oct 31 other than the weekly EIA releases (Oct 14, 21, 28) and the U.S. midterms on Nov 3.

- [2026-10-13] AAA's national average for diesel was about $6.28 on Oct 13, up 72% year on year. The $7.50 strike is about $1.22 (about 19%) above that level. https://cnbc.com/2026/10/13/trump-putin-zelenskyy-russia-ukraine-diesel-oil-price.html - [2026-10-05] EIA weekly on-highway diesel was $6.199, down $0.183 on the week. The Oct 14 release was not yet visible. EIA is probably the settlement source, but I did not confirm which source Kalshi uses for this contract. https://weeklydiesel.com/history/2026/ - [2026-09-22] The record high is $6.529 (EIA, week of Sep 21). AAA's record is $6.53 on Sep 22. No national weekly reading in 2026 has reached $7.50. The 2026 low was $3.459 in January, and the average through Oct 5 was $5.04. https://weeklydiesel.com/history/2026/ - Weekly changes (2026): the largest rise was +$0.962 (week of Mar 9, the start of the Iran war shock). Typical weekly moves were $0.05–0.35. A 4-week window (from Oct 5 to Oct 26/Nov 2) needing +$1.30 would be larger than any 4-week rise except the March jump. Sep 7–21 rose about $0.93 in 3 weeks (from $5.60 on Aug 31 to $6.53). https://weeklydiesel.com/history/2026/ - [2026-10-12] Wholesale ULSD futures were about $4.66/gal. That is about 75% of the $6.20 retail price, which implies retail would need roughly a $1.2 wholesale jump to reach $7.50. Retail lags wholesale by 1–2 weeks. https://worldoilmonitor.com/diesel-prices - [2026-10-13] Trump announced a Russian diesel supply deal. Goldman estimated it would cut wholesale diesel by only $1–2 per barrel. Futures barely moved. Analysts cite structural tightness: Russian refinery outages are 3 million bpd higher than last year, and Iran and the Houthis have hit Middle East refineries. https://cnbc.com/2026/10/13/trump-putin-zelenskyy-russia-ukraine-diesel-oil-price.html - [2026-10-05] California is $8.08 and the West Coast is $7.23 (EIA), so only regional averages exceed $7.50. The national figure is far below. https://worldoilmonitor.com/diesel-prices - [2026-10-06] Kalshi sibling market: traders favoured diesel at or below $6.20 on Nov 3 (Election Day) after Trump's Oct 5 executive order on dyed diesel. The article gives no price for this contract. https://cryptobriefing.com/kalshi-traders-us-diesel-prices-620/ - [~2026-09-25] Kalshi year-end 2026 ladder: above $6.20 was about 57%, above $6.40 about 38% and above $6.60 about 54% (the snapshot looks inconsistent and may be stale). The ladder did not appear to go near $7.50. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxdieselye/diesel-prices-at-year-end/kxdieselye-26dec31 - [2026-10-13] Tail risk: Sen. Marshall warned diesel could reach $15 if Iran controls the strait. This is rhetoric, not a forecast. Hormuz talks have repeatedly stalled. https://cnn.com/2026/10/13/politics/kfile-kansas-roger-marshall-gas-prices-iran - Historical reference: the 2022 national peak was $5.81 (June). The inflation-adjusted 2008 peak was about $7.33 in Aug 2026 dollars, so $7.50 would be a record in real terms too. https://www.thetrading.tools/diesel-price BOTTOM LINE: By the outside view, diesel above $7.50 nationally has never occurred. Prices are falling from a $6.53 peak, and a 19% rise in under three weeks would exceed every move except the March war shock, so YES requires a new severe supply shock. NOT FOUND: the Oct 14 EIA reading; the live Kalshi price or ladder for the Oct 31 contract; the contract's exact settlement source (AAA vs EIA); an expert forecast for late-October diesel (EIA STEO not retrieved).

YES means: the Diesel Price on October 31, 2026 (the national average, source likely AAA or EIA) is above $7.50. - [2026-10-13] Tom Kloza (Gulf Oil chief energy advisor, OPIS co-founder) posted that wholesale diesel spiked on Oct 13: up 18c/gal on the Gulf and East Coasts, 28c in Southern California and 25–30c in the Great Plains and Great Lakes. He added that the market clearly does not believe the Russian diesel is coming. He also wrote that the $6.53 retail record "could be topped by the midterms." This is a newer, bullish read than the Oct 12–13 settlements. It is one trader's view, not a forecast of $7.50. https://x.com/TomKloza/status/2110049279209505030 - [2026-10-10] Admirals reports that only a US Treasury licence (OFAC General License 135) is officially confirmed in the Russia arrangement. The 300,000-ton figure comes from Trump's post alone, and no bilateral document has been found. EU and UK sanctions are unchanged. YES path: the headline fades and Russian volumes do not arrive. https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/russian-diesel-trump-putin-deal - [2026-10-01] Russia extended its diesel, marine-fuel and gasoil export ban through Oct 31, so Russian product stays off the global market for the whole window. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russia-Extends-Diesel-Export-Ban-Through-Oct-31.html - [2026-09-14] Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline shutdown reportedly removed about 4% of global supply and pushed Brent to $109. Hormuz has been closed since February, and Houthi forces are seizing Red Sea chokepoints. Both alternative routes are impaired, so a further escalation has no spare capacity to absorb it. This is a 24/7 Wall St. report, not a primary source. https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/14/california-diesel-prices-hit-record-8-14-a-gallon-as-global-oil-supply-takes-another-hit/ - [2026-09-22] Regional spread: the West Coast was $7.456 in the Sep 22 EIA release, and the Midwest rose 43c in one week to $6.680. A national average of $7.50 would need the whole country at West Coast-plus levels. The September episode shows regional jumps of 40c or more in a week are possible. https://www.fleetowner.com/emissions-efficiency/news/55406906/us-diesel-prices-hit-653-as-strait-of-hormuz-disruption-drives-trucking-costs - [2026-09-17] The EIA weekly series rose 32c in the week to Sep 14 and 24c the following week. Two further weekly rises of that size from the Oct 5 level of $6.199 would reach only about $6.8. YES needs roughly 3–4 consecutive weekly gains of 30–40c, which has happened only in the March and September spikes. https://www.fleetmaintenance.com/equipment/emissions-and-efficiency/news/55405775/diesel-prices-hit-record-high-as-strait-of-hormuz-disruptions-continue - [2026-07-22] Precedent for reversals: a peace-talk lull cut fuel prices for several weeks, then renewed strikes in Hormuz pushed diesel up 34c in a week to $5.134, back to the level at the start of the war. Hormuz talks can flip quickly. https://www.fleetowner.com/emissions-efficiency/news/55392467/diesel-fuel-prices-hit-513-as-a-result-of-the-iran-conflict - [2026-10-06] The EIA STEO (forecast completed Oct 1) says retail diesel prices stay above $6 in October and fall only gradually after that. It does not forecast a fall below $6 in October. The next STEO is Nov 10, after the contract closes. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/petro_prod.php - [2026-09-30] The EIA weekly series (Sep 28 $6.382, Oct 5 $6.199) shows the retail record was set during a period when ULSD futures were about 55c above Oct 6 levels. A rebound of ULSD futures toward the Sep 15 record settlement of $5.26 would put retail back near $6.5–6.9 on the colleagues' wholesale-to-retail ratio. That still leaves $7.50 about 60c or more beyond it. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_gnd_dcus_nus_w.htm - [2026-09-16] California's AAA average was already $8.21, with some Bay Area stations near $9. If the settlement source were a regional or state figure, YES would already hold. For a national figure it does not. https://abc7news.com/post/california-diesel-prices-hit-record-highs-bay-area-stations-nearing-9-gallon/19836676/ BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES path is a fresh Hormuz or Saudi/Houthi escalation combined with the Russian diesel headline failing (the Oct 13 wholesale spike is an early sign), which would push the national average about $1.20 higher in under three weeks. That would be an unprecedented move outside the March and September spikes. Even Kloza's bullish view is that the $6.53 record falls, not $7.50. NOT FOUND: the Oct 14 EIA release; the contract's exact settlement source; any analyst forecast of $7.50 national diesel; the Oct 13 closing ULSD settlement.

YES means: the Diesel Price figure on Oct 31, 2026 (probably AAA's national average; the source is not confirmed) is above $7.50 per gallon. - [2026-10-13] The strongest bullish voice still stops short of $7.50. Tom Kloza (Gulf Oil) said the $6.53 record "could be topped by the midterms" after a ~5% futures spike. He cited wholesale rises of about 18c on the Gulf and East Coasts and 25–30c in the Great Plains, Great Lakes and Southern California. Even if all of that passes through, retail would reach only about $6.5, still about $1.00 short. GasBuddy's De Haan said "$6/gal diesel may be here to stay". The article was read via search snippet; NBC blocked the fetch. https://www.nbcnews.com/business/energy/diesel-futures-higher-prices-trump-moves-rcna603218 - [2026-10-14] The Oct 5 regional EIA table (fetched) shows that no region except the West Coast (7.229) and California (8.082) is above $7.50. The PADD regions range from 5.699 to 6.485, with the Midwest at 6.286. The national figure is a volume-weighted average dominated by the Gulf, Midwest and East. West Coast and California price strength therefore cannot lift the national average much. Even at the Sep 21 peak, the West Coast was 7.456, below the strike. https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/ - [2026-09-21] At the Sep 21 record week, every region was below $7.50 except California (8.246). The record national price of 6.529 coincided with ULSD futures at $5.26. https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/ - [2026-10-12] The wholesale-to-retail gap is large. ULSD was around $4.7–4.8 on Oct 12–13, against retail at about $6.28. The record Sep 15 futures settlement was $5.26, and retail peaked at $6.53. The ~$1.5 retail-over-futures spread (taxes, distribution, margin) means $7.50 retail would need ULSD near $6.0. That is about 25% above the Oct 13 level and 14% above the all-time record, within about 2.5 weeks. Sources: the colleague-reported futures levels, and EIA's cost breakdown (diesel retail May 2026 = 42% crude, 25% refining, 23% distribution/marketing, 11% taxes). https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/ - [2026-10-06] The EIA STEO (released Oct 6, forecast completed Oct 1) said September retail diesel averaged $6.29. It expects prices to stay "above $6" in October and then come down gradually on lower crude and a slight inventory recovery. The next STEO is Nov 10, after the deadline, so no new official forecast arrives before settlement. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/petro_prod.php - [2026-10-13] The Russian supply response is a modest bearish offset. Russia scrapped its diesel export ban and released 500kt for October. QCIntel said European gasoil cracks fell on the deal but gave "minimal relief". Asia gasoil prompt spreads narrowed to a 3-month low. Hormuz tanker attacks continue, so the risk is two-sided, but no data source shows a trend toward $7+. https://www.qcintel.com/article/oil-futures-crude-eases-as-additional-russian-diesel-supplies-eyed-75053.html - [2026-10-08] There is a policy backstop. The IEA said roughly 325M of the 400M barrels agreed in March have been released, with about 100M still to come, including the G7 diesel release. It said member governments hold about 1.1 billion barrels of emergency stocks, including over 200M of diesel, and is "ready to release more". This caps the tail risk of a pure supply shock. AAA diesel was $6.28 that day. https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/08/business/oil-diesel-prices-tanker-attacks-hormuz-intl - [2026-10-11] AAA's diesel reading was about $6.20 on Oct 11, 33c below the Sep 22 record. This is AAA's own series, and it has fallen about 5% from its peak. Pass-through from the Oct 13 futures jump would have to reverse that fall, then add about $1.30 more. A separate source gives AAA diesel $6.32 on Oct 5–6 and $5.90 a month earlier. So the largest recent monthly AAA rise was about $0.4–0.6, against the $1.22 needed in 17 days. https://global-energy-flow.com/shortages/united-states/forecast/ - [2026-10-06] LendingTree's AAA-based data gave diesel as $6.32 on Oct 6, 71.7% above a year earlier, and $5.90 a month before. https://www.lendingtree.com/credit-cards/study/us-gas-prices/ - [2026-10-14] Settlement-source technicality. The EIA weekly series prints Mondays (Oct 26 is the last pre-deadline observation; the Nov 2 reading arrives after Oct 31). AAA is a daily series. Either way, EIA weekly values (6.199 on Oct 5) have run below AAA's, so an EIA-based settlement is marginally harder for YES. The EIA survey is a Monday 8am cash-price survey of the contiguous U.S., which excludes Hawaii and Alaska. I could not confirm the source for this contract. https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/diesel_proc-methods.php - [2026-10-13] The 2027 crude curve is rising (WTI Cal-2027 at $84, Brent Cal-2027 at $90, records for 12 and 4 days). OPEC+ September production rose sharply on Saudi output. This points to elevated but not exploding prices; crude is in the $90s, not $120+. https://theglobeandmail.com/investing/article-oil-retreats-as-russian-diesel-supply-prospects-counter-gulf-supply BOTTOM LINE: Status quo is NO: national diesel is about $6.2–6.3, and the realistic bullish case (Kloza's "topped by the midterms") means about $6.5–6.7, well below $7.50. YES needs retail up 19% in 17 days, with ULSD around $6.0 (14% above its record), against an IEA stock-release backstop and an EIA outlook of "above $6, then easing". NOT FOUND: the Oct 14 EIA reading; the Kalshi contract's exact settlement source; this contract's live price (not searched, per instructions); a full fetch of the NBC article (blocked).