Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?

- [2026-08-11] Primary results: Amanda Janoo won the Democratic nomination with 49.1% to Aly Richards' 46.6%. Phil Scott was unopposed in the Republican primary, with 98.5% of the vote. The Democratic nominee is therefore Janoo. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Vermont_gubernatorial_election (NBC's results page shows the same figures: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-elections/vermont-governor-results) - [2026-09-17 to 21] UNH poll (reported 09-21): Janoo led Scott by 6 points among likely voters, within the margin of error. Scott was at 42% and 6% were undecided. https://vtdigger.org/2026/10/11/political-polls-historically-underestimate-phil-scott-will-2026-be-different/ - [2026-09-10 to 21] Vermont Public/Braun poll, released 09-28: Scott led 42–32 (Vermont Public's own headline says 10 points; VTDigger's 10-11 piece says 9). About 20% were undecided. https://vtdigger.org/2026/09/28/new-poll-shows-gov-phil-scott-leading-amanda-janoo-by-10-points/ - [2026-10-02] State Navigate poll, still live and not final until 10-06: Scott 47%, Janoo 42%. Fundraising was reported as neck and neck. https://www.wcax.com/2026/10/02/fundraising-totals-mirror-tight-polls-vermont-governors-race/ - [2026-10-11] VTDigger: since 2016, pre-election polls have put Scott an average of about 14 points below his actual vote share. Janoo's predecessors finished close to their polling numbers. Scott's spokesperson says polls have "always undervalued" him. Both September polls put him at 42–43%. https://vtdigger.org/2026/10/11/political-polls-historically-underestimate-phil-scott-will-2026-be-different/ - [2026-10-11] Boston Globe: this is Scott's toughest race since 2016. Both polls show fewer than half of Vermonters approve of his job performance, a first. The RGA made its first investment last week, $400,000 to a pro-Scott super PAC. https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/10/11/metro/vermont-governor-phil-scott-amanda-jano/ - [2026-10-13] Cook Political Report moved the race from Solid to Likely Republican. Janoo is endorsed by Bernie Sanders and Howard Dean. https://www.wamc.org/news/2026-10-13/vermont-governor-faces-tightest-reelection-race-of-his-tenure - [2026-09-30] Scott acknowledged that Democratic enthusiasm is creating headwinds, and called this his toughest race since 2016. https://www.wcax.com/2026/09/30/facing-tight-polls-gov-scott-admits-democratic-enthusiasm-creating-headwinds/ - [2026-10-09] VTDigger reported that general election ballots were mailed later than expected, and that PAC money is flowing in. https://vtdigger.org/2026/10/11/political-polls-historically-underestimate-phil-scott-will-2026-be-different/ - [Historical] Scott won in 2024 by 73.4% to 21.8%, in 2022 by 47 points, and in 2020 by 41 points. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Vermont_gubernatorial_election - [Scheduled] The general election is on 2026-11-03. The market closes 11-04. No race call has been made; AP, Fox and NBC calls come on or after election night. https://ballotpedia.org/Vermont_gubernatorial_election,_2026 BOTTOM LINE: Scott, a five-term Republican incumbent, is in his closest race yet. Two polls show Scott leading by 10 points, one shows Janoo up 6, and Cook still rates the race Likely Republican. History says polls understate Scott, and no call can come before 11-03. NOT FOUND: Independent or third-party candidates on the November ballot. Scheduled general-election debate dates. Any current AP, Fox or NBC call, which is not expected before election day. Other forecasters' ratings (Sabato, Inside Elections). The final State Navigate figures.

- [2026-10-11] Incumbent Republican Phil Scott is seeking a sixth term against Democratic nominee Amanda Janoo. VTDigger found that his pre-election polling since 2016 averaged about 14 points below his final vote share. Janoo's polling has finished close to her actual result. The size of the miss varies by cycle: 8 points in 2016, negligible in 2018, 9 in 2020, 30 in 2022, and 13 in 2024. https://vtdigger.org/2026/10/11/political-polls-historically-underestimate-phil-scott-will-2026-be-different/ - [2024-11-05] Scott won 73.4% to Democrat/Progressive Esther Charlestin's 21.8%, a margin of about 52 points. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Vermont_gubernatorial_election - [2022-11-08] Scott won 70.9% to 23.9% over Brenda Siegel. That was the largest Republican margin since 1950, and it came while Democrat Peter Welch won the concurrent Senate race by 40 points. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Vermont_gubernatorial_election - [2026-09-24] The UNH Survey Center (835 likely voters) had Janoo 49%, Scott 43%. Earlier UNH polls had Scott ahead 44–33 (July) and 42–27 (June). https://www.270towin.com/2026-governor-polls/vermont - [2026-09-28] The Vermont Public/Braun poll (Sept 10–21) had Scott 44%, Janoo 34% among likely voters. Undecided was 16%, against 6% in UNH. https://www.wamc.org/news/2026-09-28/vermont-public-poll-shows-incumbent-governor-leading-challenger - [2026-10-11] A State Navigate poll (Oct 2–4, 948 likely voters) had Scott 46%, Janoo 43%. This comes from Wikipedia's poll table and I did not check it against the pollster. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Vermont_gubernatorial_election - [2026-10-11] Boston Globe: the Republican Governors Association made its first investment in the race last week, $400,000 for a pro-Scott super PAC. It reads this as the incumbent's allies being concerned. https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/10/11/metro/vermont-governor-phil-scott-amanda-jano/ - [2026-10-06] Race ratings, per Wikipedia and Newsweek: Cook Solid R (Oct 1). Sabato moved Vermont from Safe to Likely R on Sept 29. Inside Elections was rated Solid R in the table as of Oct 1, with Fox, DDHQ, RCP and Silver Bulletin also in that table. Newsweek reports Silver Bulletin and Race to the WH at Likely R. No major forecaster rates it a tossup. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections - [2026-09-28] The UNH poll showed Scott's approval among Democrats at 35%, a record low, and among Republicans at 77%. Janoo outraised Scott in September, and Wikipedia calls this the most competitive Vermont governor's race in a decade. https://www.newsweek.com/americas-most-popular-gop-governor-trails-democratic-rival-latest-polls-12489430 - [2026-08-11] Janoo won the Democratic primary with 49.1% to Aly Richards's 46.6%, in a primary with higher turnout than the last state primary. Scott took 98.5% in his unopposed primary. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Vermont_gubernatorial_election - [2026-03-10] Historical base rate: Scott beat his last three general-election opponents by at least 39 points. Vermont's last Democratic governor was Peter Shumlin, who left office in January 2017. Scott was first elected in 2016 by about 9 points. https://www.vermontpublic.org/local-news/2026-03-10/republican-gov-phil-scott-democratic-challenge-2026 - [2026-10-11] Scott's campaign says polls have "always undervalued" his support. The UNH campaign-side dispute: Scott's campaign said the pollster was wrong by double digits in 2022 and 2024. https://www.wamc.org/news/2026-09-25/new-poll-shows-vermont-governor-trailing-in-reelection-bid BOTTOM LINE: The reference class strongly favors Scott: he has won by 9 to 52 points in every race since 2016, and the major raters call this Solid or Likely R. The 2026 polls are the closest of his career, ranging from Janoo +6 (UNH) to Scott +10 (Vermont Public). His polls have historically understated his final vote share, though not by a consistent amount. NOT FOUND: A Polymarket or other betting-market price (excluded by instruction). Final Inside Elections and Fox rating wording confirmed on the rater pages themselves. UNH's own full October poll, if any. Any independent or third-party candidate who could affect resolution.

YES means: the Democratic nominee (Amanda Janoo, D/Progressive) is the winner of the 2026 Vermont governor election, as called by AP, Fox and NBC or by official certification. A Scott win, or a win by any other candidate, resolves NO. - [2026-10-04] The State Navigate poll (Oct 2–4, 948 likely voters, ±3.2) is final: Scott 46, Janoo 43. The initial ballot, before leaners were pushed, was 43–41 with 14% undecided. Only 8% remain undecided and 4% back minor candidates. This is a 3-point race, inside the margin of error, and it narrowed from the 47–42 live figure. https://projects.statenavigate.com/interactives/vt/statewide-poll-october-2026/ - [2026-10-04] The same State Navigate poll finds Scott's approval at 57%, above his 46% ballot share. Among voters who backed Scott in 2024 and now back Janoo, 40% still approve of him. A fifth of likely voters are 2024 Scott voters now leaning Janoo, so the defection is partisan and not about his performance. https://projects.statenavigate.com/interactives/vt/statewide-poll-october-2026/ - [2026-10-04] Down-ballot split in the State Navigate poll: Democrat Molly Gray leads Republican Lt. Gov. Rodgers 59–32, and only 59% of Scott voters pick Rodgers. The Democratic base is consolidating (Janoo voters back Gray at 94%). In this poll the whole Democratic ticket leads except the top line. https://projects.statenavigate.com/interactives/vt/statewide-poll-october-2026/ - [2026-09-24] The UNH poll had Janoo at 49–43. She held 73% of Democrats and 40% of independents. Scott held 89% of Republicans, 53% of independents and 20% of Democrats. Democrats are most of Vermont's electorate, so a Democratic consolidation can produce a win with little crossover. In the same poll, 71% disapproved of Trump's handling of the Canada trade talks, and 77% were concerned about the impact on Vermont. https://www.newsweek.com/americas-most-popular-gop-governor-trails-democratic-rival-latest-polls-12489430 - [2026-09-25] The UNH sample was 60% Democrat, 31% Republican and 9% independent, which Scott's team attacked. That also means the poll's mix is heavily Democratic, a point against it. For the YES case, the UNH shift is corroborated by approval trends in the Vermont Public and State Navigate polls. In the UNH polling, Scott's approval fell from 61% in Oct 2025 to 47%. https://vtdigger.org/2026/09/25/latest-poll-shows-gov-phil-scott-and-amanda-janoo-in-tightest-race-in-a-decade/ - [2026-09-28] In the Vermont Public poll, Scott's 10-point lead rests on 16% undecided and only 44% support, with approval at 45%, down 15 points from 2022. Scott's approval among Democrats fell 31 points in four years. The YES path is that the undecided voters, who are unfamiliar with Janoo and are mostly Democrat-leaning, break to her. UNH found more voters who "don't know" Janoo than undecided voters. https://www.vermontpublic.org/local-news/2026-09-28/poll-shows-amanda-janoo-closing-on-phil-scott-governors-race - [2026-10-02] VTDigger reports Janoo outraised Scott in September ($291K vs $223K) and is nearly level on cash on hand. She has $689K from individual donors against Scott's $324K. https://vtdigger.org/2026/10/02/amanda-janoo-bests-phil-scott-in-september-campaign-fundraising-blitz/ - [2026-10-12] Pro-Scott super PAC advertising is described as "negative" ads aimed at Janoo. A Democratic strategist reads the RGA's arrival as a sign Scott's seat may be in danger. The WCAX piece (Oct 9) says this is the most RGA money in Vermont since 2016, though a Middlebury professor noted it came late. Scott's cash is $295K. Republicans are spending to protect him, which suggests their internal numbers show a real contest. https://vermontpublic.org/local-news/2026-10-12/pro-phil-scott-super-pac-launches-ad-blitz-targeting-amanda-janoo ; https://www.wcax.com/2026/10/09/outside-spending-is-pouring-into-vermonts-race-governor/ - [2026-10-07] Sanders endorsed Janoo on Oct 7. He had backed Scott's Democratic opponents in 2016, 2018 and 2020, and none won. A Middlebury professor said the endorsement "definitely matters" in this toughest reelection bid of Scott's career. Janoo is reported to be drawing large crowds. https://www.vermontpublic.org/local-news/2026-10-07/bernie-sanders-endorses-amanda-janoo-vermont-governor - [2026-09-28] Vermont Public's Oct 21 debate (7 p.m.) is the main remaining event in which a little-known challenger can raise her profile. Janoo has not yet been tested by a late-campaign debate. https://www.vermontpublic.org/local-news/2026-09-28/poll-shows-amanda-janoo-closing-on-phil-scott-governors-race - [2026-10-12] Vermont has no runoff. Under the Vermont constitution, if no candidate gets 50% of the vote, the legislature picks among the top three. The legislature is Democrat-controlled. Minor candidates (Goodband, Judd, Roy) and a Scott–Janoo split in the high 40s could push the contest to the legislature. Janoo needs a plurality in the popular vote and, if no one reaches 50%, a Democratic legislature decides, which would help her. The Democratic majorities in the legislature are as reported by Scott himself in the Oct 11 Boston Globe piece. https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/VT ; https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/10/11/metro/vermont-governor-phil-scott-amanda-jano/ - [2026-10-12] Most likely YES path: Democratic enthusiasm in a midterm with an unpopular Republican president (Trump) lifts turnout. Scott's Democratic support falls to about 20% (UNH level). Undecideds (8–20% depending on the poll) go to Janoo. The pollsters' historic understatement of Scott does not recur at the 2022–24 scale. Prerequisites: the Democratic share of the electorate stays high, Scott stays under about 47%, and no late shift back to Scott from the debate or advertising. https://www.newsweek.com/americas-most-popular-gop-governor-trails-democratic-rival-latest-polls-12489430 BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES case is a consolidating Democratic base and a nominee with only a 3-point deficit to Scott in the latest poll (Janoo +6 in UNH), plus Scott's falling approval and late Republican spending. It requires polling to be reasonably accurate this time despite Scott's history of beating his polls. NOT FOUND: Any poll after Oct 4, plus polls by campaign internal or independent pollsters. Sabato's and Inside Elections' own pages. The Vermont Public debate outcome, since it has not happened. The DGA's actual spending (Janoo's campaign says it does not want it).

YES means: the Democratic nominee (Amanda Janoo) wins the 2026 Vermont governor election, as called by AP, Fox and NBC or by official certification. Scott winning, or any independent winning, resolves NO. - [2026-10-04] The State Navigate poll (Oct 2–4, 948 likely voters, final) has Scott 46%, Janoo 43% with leaners. Before leaners it was 43–41 with 14% undecided. 4% back minor candidates, 8% are undecided. This is the most recent poll and is in the field after the UNH and Vermont Public polls. It finds Scott's approval at 57%, which exceeds his 46% vote share. That leaves room for him to gain at the end. https://projects.statenavigate.com/interactives/vt/statewide-poll-october-2026/ - [2026-10-04] Within the same poll, 61% of Scott's 2024 voters stay with him, 30% defect to Janoo, and 6% are undecided. Undecided voters lean moderate (4.7 on a 0–10 ideology scale, versus 7.5 for Janoo voters), so they are more likely to break toward Scott. Scott leads Janoo 46–43 among all voters, 61–29 among independents on approval, and 83% to under 10% among Trump approvers. Janoo's ceiling is 43–49%, and the only poll showing her ahead is the UNH one. https://projects.statenavigate.com/interactives/vt/statewide-poll-october-2026/ - [2026-10-11] No incumbent Vermont governor has lost since 1962. Political scientist Rich Clark: "Change comes really slow here." The RGA spent $3M for Scott in 2016 and $800K in 2018, and has now started spending again ($400K). Scott has money behind him, and Janoo's fundraising lead is small ($706K raised versus $414K as of end of September). https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/10/11/metro/vermont-governor-phil-scott-amanda-jano/ - [2026-10-11] Sanders endorsed Janoo in a video but said "I personally like Phil Scott." Scott's coalition rests on Democrats and independents who see him as a "nice guy" and have never seen him vote for Trump. Defection is only partial, and Democrats' approval of him in the State Navigate poll is still 46%. https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/10/11/metro/vermont-governor-phil-scott-amanda-jano/ - [2026-10-12] VTDigger/Valley News: UNH's late-September Scott leads were 17 points in 2022, when he won by 47, and 39 in late-October 2024, when he won by 52. The Vermont Public poll put the governor question after job-approval questions, which UNH did not. UNH's 6% undecided looks atypically low for late September, which suggests it may be over-forcing choices. https://vnews.com/2026/10/12/vermont-gubernatorial-poll-scott-janoo/ - [2026-10-07] Longtime Vermont journalist Chris Graff called the UNH poll an "outlier." He said the Vermont Public poll is "more in line" with how close watchers see the race: Scott keeps the lead and Janoo is "largely unknown". https://mountaintimes.info/2026/10/07/new-poll-shows-gov-scott-leading-amanda-janoo-by-10-points/ - [2026-10-13] Rating agencies still have Scott favored. Fox (Oct 6), DDHQ (Oct 8), Sabato (Sep 29) and Silver Bulletin (Oct 3) all say Likely R. RCP says Lean R (Sep 25). Inside Elections was Solid R in the Wikipedia table (last dated Aug 2025). No rating organisation rates it a tossup. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Vermont_gubernatorial_election - [2026-10-14] Ballot: Scott (R), Janoo (D/P), Peace and Justice candidate June Goodband, independent Brian Judd and Freedom and Unity candidate Dean Roy are on the ballot. The three minor candidates combined polled 4% in State Navigate. Under the rules, an independent winner is NO, and the minor-party vote takes only a little from Janoo. The Vermont Secretary of State's independent filing deadline was Aug 6. https://www.sevendaysvt.com/guides/electionvoterguide/candidates-vermont-governor-2026/ - [2026-10-14] Debates: Vermont Public on Oct 21, and WCAX on Oct 28 (per Seven Days, Oct 3). The Times Argus editorial said only one debate was scheduled and Scott had declined others. Scott campaigns mostly low-key and is focusing his TV ads on down-ballot legislative races, so a late dramatic movement from a debate is not baked in. https://www.sevendaysvt.com/news/janoo-outraised-gov-scott-in-september-disclosures-show/ - [2026-10-14] Settlement: Vermont mails all registered voters a ballot, which Scott signed into law in 2020. Counting is fast and this is not a state with delayed results. Election day is Nov 3 and the market closes Nov 4. A call on election night should resolve it, unless it is extremely close. https://news.yahoo.com/vermonts-republican-governor-backs-mail-160328170.html - [2026-09-24] UNH itself describes Janoo as in a "statistical tie" and lists 'partisan headwinds' as the main driver: the movement is toward Democrats nationally (Trump/Canada trade war), not specifically against Scott. UNH's July poll had him ahead 44–33 and June 42–27, so a 6-point Janoo lead is a 17-point shift in two months. That implies volatility, which supports the argument that it will revert. https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/1006/ - [2026-10-11] Scott led polls in 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024, and he won each time with a wider margin than any poll showed. Both Vermont Public and State Navigate have Scott ahead, and the VTDigger average underestimate of about 14 points would stand against the 2026 polling. https://vnews.com/2026/10/12/vermont-gubernatorial-poll-scott-janoo/ BOTTOM LINE: The No case is that Scott leads in two of the three post-primary polls, including the most recent. No Vermont incumbent governor has lost since 1962, raters call it Likely R, and Scott's polls have historically understated his final vote share. Resolution is straightforward: a Scott win means No, and nothing in the rules changes that. NOT FOUND: Final Inside Elections wording on its own page; any Scott internal polling; early-vote or ballot-return totals; any actual AP, Fox or NBC call (none yet); a confirmed UNH October poll.