Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their March 2027 meeting? — Hike 25bps

- [2026-09-16] The FOMC voted 12-0 to raise the target range by 25bp to 3.75%–4.00%. This was the first hike since 2023, and Chair Kevin Warsh presided. The statement said the Committee "will deliver price stability." https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20260916.pdf (also https://www.atlantafed.org/news-and-events/2026/09/16/fomc-statement) - [2026-09-16] The September dot plot has a median of one more hike in 2026, taking the rate to about 4.1%. The median shows no change in 2027, then cuts in 2028–29. The 2027 dots were split: Schwab says only eight dots show another 25bp in 2027, and four participants expect lower rates. The most hawkish dot is 4.375% for 2027. Warsh declined to submit a dot. https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/portfolio-insights/fixed-income/fixed-income-perspectives/fomc-statement-september-2026/ ; https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fomc-meeting - [2026-10-07] The September minutes say most participants judged another increase "would likely be appropriate by year end." They gave no timing and said each meeting would be approached "with an open mind." Core PCE for August was 3.0% and headline was 3.4%, both below expectations. The remaining 2026 meetings are Oct 27-28 and Dec 8-9. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/07/fed-officials-see-another-hike-coming-but-no-sign-as-to-when-minutes-show.html - [2026-10-13] NY Fed President Williams said one more hike in 2026 may be appropriate. He said he sees no reason now to think more is needed in 2027, but he would keep watching the data. CNBC says this puts him at odds with the market. Fed funds futures gave about 90% odds that the rate ends 2027 at least 50bp above today's level. Collins (Boston) also expects a further hike this year. Richmond's Barkin (a non-voter this year) said acting on enduring inflation makes sense. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/13/john-williams-fed-rate-hikes-2027.html ; https://investinglive.com/central-banks/icymi-three-fed-officials-signal-inflation-fight-continues-williams-sees-no-2027-hike - [2026-10-12] Governor Waller, who had a "surprising" hike vote, explained his hawkish pivot. As of Oct 10 (via TheStreet), traders priced about an 81.6% chance of a hold at the October meeting and an 83% chance of a hike by December. Waller cited energy costs tied to the Iran war and weak consumer confidence. https://thestreet.com/fed/feds-waller-rate-hike-pivot-inflation-consumers - [~2026-10-03] A prediction-market aggregator (undated, "11 days ago") showed the March 17, 2027 meeting as "Hike" the most likely outcome, at about 53% hike and 37% hold. Note that these figures are cumulative probabilities that the rate is higher by that date, not necessarily a hike at that meeting alone. https://defirate.com/prediction-markets/fed-decision-odds/ - [~2026-09-09] Investing.com's fed funds futures monitor, shown as 25 days old (stale, likely pre-September-hike), listed Mar 17, 2027 with 2.4% at the 4.00–4.25 range. Treat this as outdated. https://www.investing.com/central-banks/fed-rate-monitor - [2026-09-29] Forbes reported that fixed income markets were pricing hikes at both the October and December 2026 meetings. It said a sequence extending into early 2027 was not yet the base case. Barr and Cook sounded hawkish. https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2026/09/29/what-to-expect-from-interest-rates-for-the-rest-of-2026/ - [2026-10-14] The September CPI is released today at 8:30 ET. Consensus is about 3.6–3.7% year on year, up from 3.4% in August, driven by gasoline (record September pump prices). Core is expected near 2.4% year on year (0.2% month on month). I could not find the actual print. https://www.morningstar.com/economy/cpi-forecasts-show-moderated-inflation-september-keeping-fed-hold ; https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/us-cpi-preview-september-2026-forecasts-and-the-core-cpi-outlook - [2026-10-16 onward] Scheduled events: Warsh speaks on Oct 16, PPI is Oct 15, and the FOMC meets Oct 27-28. September PCE is Oct 29, October CPI is Nov 10, and the FOMC meets Dec 8-9. After that comes a January 2027 meeting (Jan 26-27 per a centralbank.watch snippet). The March 16-17, 2027 meeting is the contract date (decision Mar 17). https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate ; https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/07/fed-officials-see-another-hike-coming-but-no-sign-as-to-when-minutes-show.html - [2026-09-16] Context: inflation has been above 2% for more than five years. The Fed's September SEP projects 2026 PCE at 3.7% and core at 3.4%, with 2027 at 2.3% and 2.5%. Energy and Iran-war price shocks are a key driver. https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fomc-meeting BOTTOM LINE: The Fed is in a hiking cycle (3.75–4.00%) with one more hike signalled for late 2026. The committee median shows no 2027 hike, while futures price roughly 50bp or more of further tightening by end-2027. Whether March 17 specifically is a 25bp hike depends on how many hikes come in Oct/Dec/Jan (a March hike is less likely if the rate has already risen), and on today's CPI and later inflation prints. NOT FOUND: Today's actual September CPI print, the live CME FedWatch probability for March 17, 2027 specifically (only a stale snapshot and an undated aggregator figure), and any Fed communication directly on the March 2027 meeting.

- [2026-09-16] The FOMC voted 12-0 to raise the funds rate 25bp to 3.75–4.00%. It was the first hike since 2023, after a cutting cycle that ended in December 2025 at 3.50–3.75%. Kevin Warsh is Fed chair. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html - [2026-09-16] September SEP: the median dot is 4.1% for end-2026 and 4.1% for end-2027, i.e. one more hike in 2026 and a flat 2027. Per Schwab, only eight of the dots show another 25bp hike in 2027, and four dots show cuts. Median 2027 PCE inflation is 2.3% headline and 2.5% core. https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fomc-meeting - [2026-09-17] JPMorgan AM summary: the median participant sees a hold in 2027 and cuts in 2028–29. https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/portfolio-insights/fixed-income/fixed-income-perspectives/fomc-statement-september-2026/ - [2026-10-13] NY Fed's Williams (permanent voter) sees one more hike this year but no reason to do more in 2027. He expects inflation to fall "quite a bit" next year. CNBC says this puts him at odds with futures, which gave about 90% odds that the rate ends 2027 at least 50bp higher than today. August PCE was 3.4% headline and 3.0% core. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/13/john-williams-fed-rate-hikes-2027.html - [2026-10-13] Kalshi/Polymarket path from DeFi Rate (Kalshi prices, "not conditional on each other"): - Oct 28: hike 20%, hold 81%. - Dec 9: hike 77%. - Jan 27: hike 30%. - Mar 17, 2027: hike 56%, hold 47%, cut 13% (these sum to over 100%, so they are last-trade figures). - Apr 28: hike 22%. - Jun 9: hike 33%. The March hike price is the largest of any 2027 meeting. It is also inflated if the Fed hikes in October or December and then holds; a hike in March needs the cycle to continue. https://defirate.com/odds/fed-decision/ - [2026-10-06] Kalshi's own March 2027 decision page showed 59% for hike 25bp (and 54% for maintain) about 8 days before this report. This is a stale snapshot. The same page also showed "Cut >25bps" at 3%. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision/fed-meeting/kxfeddecision-27mar - [2026-10-12] CME FedWatch (via a tracker): 80.5% hold at the Oct 28 meeting. March 17, 2027 is the fourth meeting from now, so the hike odds are cumulative path-dependent. Investing.com's monitor carried stale snapshots, which I did not use. https://growbeansprout.com/tools/fedwatch - [2026-10-14] Kalshi category page: "Next Fed rate hike" priced 79% before 2027 and 93% before July 2027. "Number of Fed rate changes before 2027": exactly 2 at 64%. That 64% is a Dec/Oct signal; 93% by July implies a meaningful chance of the next hike falling in H1 2027. https://kalshi.com/category/economics/fed - [2026-06 to 2026-09] Market hike odds have swung widely: - Before 2027: 25% on 2026-05-29, 52% on 2026-06-05, 54% after the June FOMC. - Before July 2027: 54% rising to 65% (June 5). - Hike odds then fell in mid-August as Goldman called pricing too hawkish and said hike odds were falling. - Odds re-spiked with a hot CPI print in about September (85% for a September hike per CME). These show the volatility of long-dated hike pricing (inflation from the Iran war and oil prices). https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/05/odds-of-a-fed-hike-this-year-jump-on-prediction-markets-.html and https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/odds-fed-rate-hike-fall-083935313.html - [2026-10-13] Track record: a Substack backtest over 37 meetings (March 2022 to September 2026) found Kalshi's Fed ladder statistically indistinguishable from CME futures. A Fed research finding cited by DeFi Rate says Kalshi's day-before prices beat futures. Both are about short horizons; 5-month-ahead pricing is far less reliable, as the swings above show. https://lucidate.substack.com/p/kalshis-dollar-fed-bet-is-neck-and - [2026-10-14] Base rate: the Fed has raised at a given meeting only in hiking cycles. Since 1994 it has hiked in roughly 15% of meetings, and in the 2022–23 cycle hikes came at 11 of 16 meetings. Within a cycle that has just begun, with the committee signalling hawkishness, the chance of a hike at a specific meeting 5 months out is much higher than the unconditional rate. Single-meeting 25bp hikes in the current cycle have been preceded by explicit signalling (July: 3 members favoured a hike; September was >90% priced). This is my background knowledge, not a fetched source. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html - [2026-09-17] Fed communications: the September minutes say officials approach each meeting "with an open mind" and that decisions depend on data. Warsh gave limited forward guidance and said inflation is too high. Mar 17 is an SEP meeting. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate BOTTOM LINE: Prediction markets and futures price a March 17, 2027 25bp hike at about 56–59% (the highest of any 2027 meeting), while the Fed's own median dot and Williams imply a flat 2027 after one more 2026 hike. The gap between market and Fed guidance, plus the swings in long-dated pricing since May, means that outside-view anchors pull in different directions. NOT FOUND: the current CME FedWatch probability for March 17, 2027 specifically (only stale monitor snapshots); any historical hit-rate for long-dated (5-month) Fed meeting prices; an independent poll of economists on a March 2027 hike; a Kalshi price for this exact contract today (excluded on purpose).

YES means: The FOMC raises the target range by exactly 25bp at its March 16-17, 2027 meeting, with the decision announced March 17, 2027. - [2026-09-14] Reuters poll (70 economists): 37 of 70 (about 53%) expected at least one further hike by end-March 2027, beyond the September hike. The no-cut consensus for 2027 had gone. Futures then priced roughly four hikes by end-July 2027. The poll was taken before the September hike. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-rate-hike-wednesday-now-115357397.html - [2026-09-11] Capital Economics' explicit call: a hike in September, another in December, and a third in March 2027. This is the only named forecaster I found with March 2027 as a hike date. Its call predates the Sept 16 dot plot. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fed-rate-hike-september-likelihood-cpi/ - [2026-09-16] Morningstar's Caldwell noted the median dot is dovish against market pricing. He also noted that Warsh did not submit a dot and "pounded the table" on inflation. He said Warsh may push for higher rates in coming meetings. Dots exclude the Chair, who is the likeliest agenda-setter. The market priced four hikes (1pp) by mid-2027. Morningstar itself forecasts cuts in 2027. https://www.morningstar.com/economy/warsh-pounds-table-inflation-fight-we-see-rate-cuts-2027 - [2026-09-16] Schwab's read of the dot plot: all but four of 19 participants expected a rate above today's by end-2027. More of them expected two hikes than one. That fits a path of Dec hike, then a March or later hike. https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fomc-meeting - [2026-09-11] Core CPI for August rose 0.3% m/m, above expectations. CBS said this suggested inflation was broadening beyond energy. Oil was above $100 and diesel above $6. The Fed's own 3.7% 2026 PCE projection runs far above target. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fed-rate-hike-september-likelihood-cpi/ - [2026-09-17] The CBO estimated the Iran war would add about 0.6pp to inflation by Q1 2027. That is the quarter of the March meeting. The Fed would therefore see peak energy pass-through in the data just before March 17. Yardeni said re-escalation of the war drove the September hike. https://www.cfodive.com/news/iran-war-spur-inflation-06-percentage-point-q1-2027-cbo-study-Fed/830724/ - [2026-10-14] CME data cited this morning: about a 17% chance of an October hike. Cailian/Chaincatcher say a 0.3% core CPI would revive an October hike. Core CPI consensus is 0.2% m/m. A pause in October with the hike pushed to December would leave room for further hikes in Jan–Mar. The actual print was not found. https://www.chaincatcher.com/en/article/2296060 - [2026-09-?? snapshot] Centralbank.watch showed March 17, 2027 at 67.9% and +17.0bp cumulative, versus 43.0% for Jan 27. The snapshot is undated, and the page's age tag says 228 days, so it may be stale. The cumulative-path caveat applies. This is a possible mechanism, not a current datum. https://centralbank.watch/federal-reserve/ - [2026-09-?? and 2026-10-13] Counterweights: JPMorgan's Feroli does not foresee a "protracted hiking cycle extending into next year." Its page gives September 2027 as the next hike with risks tilted earlier (undated, 19 days old). Williams is against a 2027 hike. Morningstar expects cuts. These are the main obstacles to a March YES. https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/economy/fed-rate-cuts Most likely path to YES: the Fed hikes in December, as the minutes and markets signal. It then holds in January. Energy-driven core pass-through stays above 3% on the Fed's measures and the Iran war persists. Warsh and the hawks (Waller, Collins, Barr, Cook) push another 25bp at the SEP meeting on March 17. Prerequisites: no hike in January, or a hold with a hike delayed. That requires oil to stay above $100 and the Q1 2027 inflation prints to stay hot, with the labor market resilient. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES case is the market and economist expectation of 3–4 total hikes by mid-2027. Warsh is more hawkish than the dot median, and the CBO puts the peak war inflation effect in Q1 2027. A March 25bp hike needs the Fed to hike in December, skip January, and then resume in March, which makes it a narrow single-meeting path. NOT FOUND: Today's actual CPI print. A dated live CME probability for March 17 specifically. Any Fed official explicitly endorsing a March 2027 hike. Capital Economics' updated post-September call.

YES means: the FOMC announces a 25bp increase in the target range on March 17, 2027, the decision day of the March 16-17 meeting. A 50bp hike, a hold, a cut or a cancelled meeting all resolve No. - [2026-10-11] Bloomberg Economics expects the Fed to hold for the rest of 2026 and forecasts the upper bound at 3.75% at end-2027, which is a cut from the current 4%. It argues the multi-decade-high bond yields tighten conditions and "temper expectations on how many hikes are ahead." It says two more months of data will show whether September was the first of a series or a mid-cycle adjustment. Warsh's task forces (balance sheet, communications, data) could reinforce a wait-and-see approach in 2027. https://swissinfo.ch/eng/a-higher-rate-world-is-in-store-as-central-banks-approach-2027/92200921 - [2026-09-25] JPMorgan's Feroli expects one more hike in December but not a protracted cycle into next year, because inflation looks supply-shock driven. JPMorgan's FAQ puts the next hike after that in September 2027, "though risks are tilted toward an earlier move." That is a major-bank base case with no March hike. https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/economy/fed-rate-cuts - [2026-10-13] Williams' "no 2027 hike" view matches the September median, and he said he sees inflation falling "quite a bit" as tariff and energy effects fade. Hammack and Logan are the hawks wanting more than one further move. Fed-speak therefore places any extra hike in the median at the 2026 meetings (December), not March. Reuters says he left the door open for data to change that. https://www.fa-mag.com/news/fed-s-williams-sees-no-need-for-rate-hike-in-2027-88784.html - [2026-10-13] Williams and Vice Chair Jefferson (a permanent leadership voter) each said they saw little urgency to hike again. After Williams' Sept 29 remarks, markets priced out October. Leadership has already shown it can overrule a market-priced hike, and market hike pricing has repeatedly swung on a single Fed speech. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/feds-williams-currently-sees-no-183000358.html - [2026-10-13] InvestingLive reads Williams' 2027 comments as capping how far markets can push peak-rate expectations. The key word is "currently." The risk is a renewed crude surge, since his benign view assumes energy adds nothing to inflation in 2027. https://investinglive.com/central-banks/fed-williams-sees-no-need-for-rate-hike-in-2027-at-this-time/ - [2026-09-16] The 2027 dot split is 8 hike, 6 hold and 4 cut, so only 8 of 18 forecasters expected a hike at any point in 2027. A March hike needs a specific meeting out of eight in 2027, and a hike dot could mean any of them. Even the 8 do not imply March. The Fed itself projects PCE falling to 2.3% (core 2.5%) in 2027. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html - [2026-10-14] Core CPI is expected at only 2.4-2.5% y/y (0.2% m/m), with the headline jump driven by gasoline. Core is far below core PCE of 3.0%, so there is no broad core acceleration (the August core was 0.3% m/m). A 0.2% print would keep the Fed on hold to December and strengthen the "supply shock fades" story. I did not find the actual print. https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/us-cpi-september-2026-scenarios-fed-october - [2026-10-14] Path-dependence mechanism: the futures-implied 2027 path (hikes in December and twice more in 2027) does not specify March. Of the ~50bp priced by end-2027, the markets from December and January take part, and the rest is spread over about six later meetings (April, June and so on). Kalshi-style ladders show every 2027 meeting with a hike price (January 30%, April 22%, June 33%, per the colleague's report), so a March-specific 25bp hike needs both a continued cycle and the right timing. Warsh's stated aversion to forward guidance and "timelier" action cuts both ways, but no signal exists for March. https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/stocks/stocks-struggle-ahead-of-september-cpi-report-stock-market-today - [2026-10-12] Political and financial-stability friction: Bloomberg flags midterm elections, an "already-frustrated" Trump, bond-market tension and AI-bust risk. The 10-year is near 5.2% and the 30-year at 5.56%, a post-2004 high. Further tightening risks the labour market (September payrolls consensus was only 100k). Warsh also speaks of AI as disinflationary. These are headwinds to a fourth hike by March. https://swissinfo.ch/eng/a-higher-rate-world-is-in-store-as-central-banks-approach-2027/92200921 - [2026-04-29] Precedent for market over-pricing: the April FOMC minutes show options implied about a 30% chance of a hike by Q1 2027, and the Fed then did hike in September, so markets were directionally right. But the August Goldman call and the October repricing show the long-dated hike price is volatile and was walked back within days. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260429.htm - [2026-10-14] Resolution technicalities favour No: Yes requires exactly +25bp on March 17. A hold, a 50bp hike or a cancelled meeting resolve No, and a Fed that hikes in December and January would face a high bar for a third consecutive move. Hikes in the 2022-23 cycle came after a long run of consecutive hikes, and the committee has signalled a "one more" cycle. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/13/john-williams-fed-rate-hikes-2027.html BOTTOM LINE: The strongest No case is that the Fed's median, Williams, Jefferson, JPMorgan and Bloomberg Economics all see at most one more hike (December) and a flat 2027, with a hike at any one of eight 2027 meetings unlikely to land on March 17. The case still depends on inflation fading, and a persistent energy shock or hawks like Logan and Hammack prevailing would break it. NOT FOUND: The actual September CPI print on Oct 14. The live CME FedWatch probability for March 17. A Fed communication or economist poll specific to March 2027. A bank forecast calling a March hike.