Will New Hampshire’s maple syrup production in 2027 be above 130,000 gallons?

- [2026-10-14] The 2027 figure does not exist yet, so nothing has resolved. NASS publishes the annual maple estimate in the June *Crop Production* report. The 2025 survey release named June 12 as the publication date. The 2027 date is not confirmed. A June 2027 release falls before the 2027-06-30 close. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/New_England_includes/Publications/Current_News_Release/2025/2025-Maple-Syrup-Survey.pdf - [2026-10-14] NASS's *Crop Production* page lists upcoming releases for Oct 9, Nov 10 and Dec 10, 2026. Its most recent release was Oct 9, 2026. The page shows no maple data due before the 2027 season. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/publication/crop-production - [2026-10-07 data build] NASS's 2026 estimate for New Hampshire, as relayed by a third-party aggregator (getluckysap, which cites NASS Quick Stats): 147,000 gallons from 480,000 taps, or 0.307 gallons per tap. That is −3% against 2025. The 2026 US total was 5.877M gallons. I did not open the NASS PDF itself. https://getluckysap.com/maple-syrup-production - [2026-10-14] UVM Extension (which reproduces NASS numbers) confirms the 2026 US crop of 5,877,000 gallons and 16.47M taps, and lists a 2026 NASS report. It does not list New Hampshire separately. https://www.uvm.edu/extension/maple-statistics - [2026-10-14] Vermont's agriculture agency confirms NASS has published 2026 state figures, with Vermont at 3.091M gallons. https://agriculture.vermont.gov/2026-vermont-maple-season-production-once-again-leads-nation - [2024-06 / 2023 release] New Hampshire's NASS history: 172k gallons in 2022, 148k in 2023, 149k in 2024. Taps were 560k, 490k and 520k. Yield per tap was 0.308, 0.303 and 0.286. These are initial-release figures. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/New_England_includes/Publications/Current_News_Release/2024/Northeast-2024-Maple-Syrup.pdf - [2024 release] The 2024 NASS report was the first to include 13 states. The 2022 Census of Agriculture put New Hampshire at 163,707 gallons, a separate series. https://www.statpub.com/index.php/gab/article/717935.html and https://statspanda.com/maple-syrup-production-by-state - [2026-03-16] NHPR reported a slow, cold start to the 2026 season, with producers about two weeks late. Snow cover could help extend the season. This is context for 2026, not 2027. https://www.nhpr.org/nh-news/2026-03-16/maple-syrup-producers-hope-temps-to-hold-after-slow-start-to-season - [2025-12 / 2026-01] The New Hampshire Maple Producers Association (NHMPA) reported container supply problems in 2025. It said a one-year supply would be available by January 2026. Its annual meeting was Jan 24, 2026. https://nhmapleproducers.com/category/homepage-updates/ - [2026-03-21/22] New Hampshire Maple Weekend had more than 90 sugarhouses participating. I found no 2027 tap-count or season data yet. The 2027 season (roughly Feb–April 2027) is the key driver, and weather will decide it. https://nhmapleproducers.com/event/new-hampshire-maple-weekend/ BOTTOM LINE: New Hampshire's last four NASS estimates (172k, 148k, 149k and about 147k) were all above 130,000 gallons. The tap count has been about 480–560k, and the yield per tap has been 0.286–0.308. A drop below 130k would take roughly a 12% fall from 2026, for example a poor season or fewer taps. The outcome depends on the 2027 sugaring season and the NASS June 2027 release, neither of which has happened. NOT FOUND: The NASS PDF for 2026 New Hampshire figures (opened only via the aggregator). The exact June 2027 *Crop Production* release date. The 2025 New Hampshire NASS value (implied at about 152k from the −3% change). Any 2027 tap-count or season outlook. Any NHMPA statement on 2026 production.

- [2026-09-23] NASS Quick Stats lists NH 2025 maple syrup production at 152,000 gal (0.292 gal/tap, $50.1/gal, $7.615M). This is the latest primary-source NH figure I could open. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Quick_Stats/Ag_Overview/stateOverview.php?state=new+hampshire - [2026-10-07] The 2026 crop for NH is 147,000 gal from 480,000 taps (0.307 gal/tap, −3% vs 2025). This comes from a third-party aggregator that says it uses NASS Quick Stats. I could not open the NASS release itself. The same page gives US 2026 at 5.877M gal, up 3.1%. https://getluckysap.com/maple-syrup-production - [2025-06] The NASS June 2025 Crop Production report gives NH production of 148k (2023), 149k (2024) and 152k (2025). NH taps were 490k, 520k and 520k. Yield per tap was 0.303, 0.286 and 0.292. https://northamericanmaple.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/US_Maple_Crop_2025.pdf - [2024-06] NASS gives NH at 172k (2022), 148k (2023) and 149k (2024) in revised figures. The 2022 value was first published as 167k. Tap counts were 560k, 490k and 520k. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/New_England_includes/Publications/Current_News_Release/2024/Northeast-2024-Maple-Syrup.pdf - [2023-01-17] The Concord Monitor reports that NH's 2022 crop of 167k gal was 31% above 2021. It was the highest since 169k in 2016, and 2021 was "a bad year due to weather". https://www.concordmonitor.com/2023/01/17/maple-syrup-new-hampshrie-49530672/ - [2023-06] Earlier published NH figures were 127k (2021, 530k taps), 154k (2022 as first revised) and 139k (2023, 460k taps). These were later revised upward, so initial estimates have been revised, and the revisions have all gone up. https://www.thecentersquare.com/vermont/article_0bf009d4-095a-11ee-9512-0faa10ee5944.html - [2019 report] NASS gave NH production of 160k, 163k and 148k for 2017, 2018 and 2019 (listed together in one table). That makes 2016–2026 NH output roughly 127k–172k. Only 2021 (about 127k as first published) fell below 130k. https://www.uvm.edu/d10-files/documents/2024-12/maple-nass-2019.pdf - [Base rate from the above] Counting 2019–2026, the only NH year at or below 130k was 2021 (first printed at 127k). NH has been above 130k in 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026, and also 2019 and 2020 (the 2020 figure was not retrieved). The 2023–2026 range is narrow, 147–152k, with 480–520k taps. A 130k result needs about a 12% drop from 2026 and about 14% from 2025. - [2026-03-16] The 2026 NH season started late after a cold, snowy winter, and producers said they were behind 2025 in mid-March. The season still ended near average at 147k. Late starts and weather swings do not appear to have pushed NH below 130k recently. https://www.nhpr.org/nh-news/2026-03-16/maple-syrup-producers-hope-temps-to-hold-after-slow-start-to-season - [2026-04-03] A large NH sugarhouse reported a short, hot-ending 2026 season, with its total tracking below its prior year's 3,600 gal. This is anecdotal. https://www.hardinghillfarm.com/blog/2026weekfive - [2026-09-16] The NASS Census of Agriculture 2022 shows NH at 163,707 gal, consistent with the survey level of around 150–170k. https://statspanda.com/maple-syrup-production-by-state - [Resolution timing] NASS publishes the state maple estimates in the June Crop Production report (June 2024 and June 2025 reports confirmed). The 2027 NH figure should therefore appear around mid-June 2027, before the 2027-06-30 close. Quick Stats may later revise the number. I found no stated revision rule for the market. BOTTOM LINE: NH has produced above 130k gal in every year since 2021, and the 2023–2026 range was a tight 147–152k. The outside view therefore favours YES, and only a weather-driven collapse like 2021 (about 127k) would give NO. The main residual risks are a poor 2027 season, a lower tap count, and the resolution source (first-published vs revised figure). NOT FOUND: the NASS June 2026 release itself (the 2026 value comes only from a secondary aggregator); NH's 2020 production figure; any formal forecast of the 2027 NH crop; any 2027 season outlook.

YES means: USDA NASS's published 2027 New Hampshire maple syrup production figure (Maple Syrup → Production → Gallons) is above 130,000 gallons. - [2026-06-11] The primary NASS June 2026 *Crop Production* PDF confirms the 2026 NH crop at 147k gallons, from 480k taps at 0.307 gal/tap. This replaces the aggregator-only figure in the earlier reports. NH acreage in the table rose to 12,100, from 11,500 in 2025 and 11,200 in 2024. The tap count fell to 480k. The 2026 NH yield per tap of 0.307 was the highest since 2022's 0.308. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795936/crop0626.pdf - [2026-06-11] The same PDF gives NH production of 149k (2024), 152k (2025) and 147k (2026). The tap counts were 520k, 520k and 480k. Three straight years sat within ±2% of 150k. A 130k result needs a drop of about 11.6% from 2026. The 2026 yield per tap was near the top of NH's recent range (0.286–0.308) despite the late, cold start. That shows the NH crop held up in a mediocre season. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795936/crop0626.pdf - [2026-06-11] The 2026 print was 147k with taps down about 8%. That means yield per tap, not tap count, carried the crop. For 2027, a tap rebound to 520k at an ordinary 0.29 yield would give about 151k. Even 480k taps at 0.286 (the lowest recent yield) gives about 137k. The 130k line needs both taps at or below 480k and yield of about 0.27 or less. In practice that means a 2021-style bad year. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795936/crop0626.pdf - [2026-06-11] NH's reported sales mix points to a commercially anchored crop. NH sold 89k gallons wholesale and 33k in bulk in 2025. Total NH sales were about 150k, matching the 152k estimate. Grade A syrup was 145,780 gallons in 2025. Most of the crop therefore comes from established commercial operations, which makes it less sensitive to hobby-tap churn. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795936/crop0626.pdf - [2026-06-11] The printed 2025 price was $50.10/gal, among the highest of the major states. NH's 2025 value was $7.6M. Prices of roughly $50/gal (and NASS's NH retail price of $65.60) give producers a reason to hold or add taps, which supports the 2027 tap count. This is an inference from the price data, not a sourced statement about NH tap plans. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795936/crop0626.pdf - [2026-06-11] The Crop Production report states that 2026 price and value will be published in the June 2027 report. NASS is therefore treating the annual maple series as routine and ongoing, which supports a June 2027 release. The release would fall before the 2027-06-30 close. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795936/crop0626.pdf - [2026-06-11] The June 2026 report was released on June 11, 2026, and the 2025 report on June 12. Both were in the second week of June. This implies a June 2027 date well before June 30. The 2027 date itself is not confirmed. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795936/crop0626.pdf - [2026-05] The June 2026 report's weather summary says May 2026 was cooler than normal across the Great Lakes and Northeast. The 2026 NH crop still printed at 147k. This shows the late, cold season did not cut NH output below the 2023–2025 band. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795936/crop0626.pdf - [2024-06] The 2024 release shows how 2021-like shocks compare with tap counts. NH's 2023 crop of 148k came from only 490k taps at 0.303. Even with the lowest tap count of the period, NH stayed well above 130k, and 2022's 172k came from 560k taps. The 2021 value (about 127k) is the lone sub-130k year in the earlier reports. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/New_England_includes/Publications/Current_News_Release/2024/Northeast-2024-Maple-Syrup.pdf - [2024-12] A ScienceDirect review of NASS data notes that annual survey estimates are subject to variable response rates and are routinely updated by NASS. Earlier reports say revisions to NH have been upward. A first-print or later-revised figure is therefore unlikely to fall below the first print. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666154326001134 BOTTOM LINE: The most likely path to YES is a normal 2027 season with taps at 480–520k and yield of about 0.28–0.31 gal/tap. That gives roughly 135–160k gallons, and NASS publishes it in mid-June 2027. On the primary NASS data, YES needs only an ordinary season; NO needs a roughly 12% fall that has happened only once since 2019. NOT FOUND: any 2027 NH tap-count intentions or season outlook; any NHMPA statement on the 2026 total or 2027 plans; a confirmed date for the June 2027 *Crop Production* release; NH's 2020 production figure; NH's 2021 figure from a primary NASS source.

YES means: USDA NASS reports New Hampshire's 2027 maple syrup production as strictly above 130,000 gallons, most likely in the June 2027 Crop Production report. I am arguing only the NO side. The evidence for it is thin. - [2026-06-11] I opened NASS's June 2026 Crop Production maple tables. They show NH taps falling to 480k, down from 520k in both 2024 and 2025. NH production was 147k, down from 152k. Yield per tap of 0.307 was higher than 0.292 in 2025. So the 2026 total held up only because of yield: taps fell 7.7% and yield rose 5%. A repeat tap decline to about 440k would need about 0.295 gal/tap to stay above 130k, which is close to the 2025 yield of 0.292. https://northamericanmaple.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/US_Maple_Crop_2026.pdf - [2026-06-11] The same tables show NH acreage rising to 12,100 acres from 11,500 in 2025, while taps fell. Acreage and taps are moving in opposite directions, which suggests tap-count volatility from survey noise. That noise could cut either way. https://northamericanmaple.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/US_Maple_Crop_2026.pdf - [2026-06-11] NH's 2026 yield of 0.307 was well above its 2024 and 2025 yields (0.286, 0.292) and the 2020 yield of about 0.29. Mean reversion to about 0.29 on 480k taps gives about 139k. A weak season would then need only a few more percent of yield loss, or a tap drop, to get near 130k. The margin above 130k is only about 13–17k gallons. https://northamericanmaple.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/US_Maple_Crop_2026.pdf - [2026-06-11] The 2026 season was cold and snowy with a late start, then had huge sap runs in mid-March. That was a favourable pattern for yield (Vermont yield rose to 0.377, Maine rebounded 17%). It gave NH a good-weather outcome but still only 147k, which was below 2025. A normal or warm-early 2027 would not have this tailwind. https://www.themaplenews.com/story/us-crop-a-near-record-59-million-gallons/566/ - [2026-06-11] Past warm-spring failures: NH was 124k in 2013, after the 2012 heat limited sap flow nationally. 2021 was about 127k as first printed. 2016 and 2017 forest tent caterpillar defoliation cut some NH producers' output by large amounts. Mount Cabot Maple reported a 62% drop (Boston Globe, 2026-03-11). Sub-130k outcomes do occur in bad-weather or defoliation years. https://data.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/New_England_includes/Publications/Annual_Statistical_Bulletin/2013/Maple2013.pdf and https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/03/11/metro/nh-maple-syrup-season-sap-climate/ - [2020-06-12] The 2020 NH figure was 154k from 530k taps (0.29 gal/tap), so NH has been above 130k every year from 2019 to 2026, apart from 2021's 127k. That fills a gap in earlier reports. It also shows the history is not as tight as 2023–26. Per-year swings of 20–30% have happened (+31% in 2022, a similar drop in 2021). https://www.concordmonitor.com/2020/06/12/maple-syrup-new-hampshire-34741064/ - [2026-06-11] Resolution mechanics: the 2026 table shows 2024 and 2025 values (149k, 152k) were carried forward from earlier releases. The 2022 value was revised from 167k to 172k. NH numbers are revised, but the market says "2027 production", so the June 2027 first print is the most likely reference. Price and value for 2027 will come later in June 2028, and production does not depend on that. https://northamericanmaple.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/US_Maple_Crop_2026.pdf - [2026-10-14] NASS's published *Crop Production* page lists upcoming releases only through Dec 10, 2026. The June 2027 date is not yet scheduled there. A slip to after 2027-06-30 is unlikely, since June 9–12 releases have run every year since 2019. A skipped or delayed survey (a budget cut or a survey change) would leave no figure and the market would not resolve YES. I found no sign of this. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/publication/crop-production - [2026-04-03] Harding Hill Farm, a large NH sugarhouse, reported a short season with little to no freeze at night in week five, ahead of the 2026 closing. This shows the end-of-season risk that heat poses to a late-starting year. The anecdote is not a 2027 forecast. https://www.hardinghillfarm.com/blog/2026weekfive - [2026-10-14] I found no 2027 season forecast, tap-count intentions, or NH-specific policy shock. A status-quo NO case requires a weather or tap-count event that has not occurred yet. Nothing in the data as of today points to NO. The NO case rests only on the roughly 12% cushion and on NH's historical volatility. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest NO case is weak. NH has produced above 130k every year since 2021, the margin is roughly 17k gallons (about 12%), and NH has dipped below 130k only in bad weather or defoliation years (2013, 2021). NO needs a 2021-style season, a further drop in taps (480k, already down 8% in 2026), or a release or resolution technicality. NOT FOUND: Any 2027 season outlook or tap-count intentions. The NASS June 2027 release date. Any NH-specific statement on 2026 taps or on the cause of the 2026 tap decline. Revised 2026 figures.