No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?

- [2026-09-29] The RBA raised the cash rate target by 25bp to 4.60%, effective 30 September. It was the fourth hike of 2026 (Feb, Mar, May, Sep), and the decision was unanimous. The RBA homepage shows 4.60% and the next update at 2.30pm on 3 November 2026. https://www.rba.gov.au/ - [2026-10-13] The RBA's 2026 decisions page lists 3 Feb, 17 Mar, 5 May, 16 Jun, 11 Aug and 29 Sep. The Board held at 4.35% in June and August. The November meeting is not yet listed as decided. https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/int-rate-decisions/2026/ - [2026-09-29] The September statement said some of the upside inflation risks flagged in August were "materialising". It said the Board would raise the cash rate further if needed. Bullock told reporters not to put "too much emphasis" on the next day's CPI. Market pricing for a November hike was about 41% after the decision. https://investinglive.com/central-banks/rba-governor-bullock-reaffirms-that-the-central-bank-will-raise-interest-rates-again-if-needed/ - [2026-10-06] The big four are split on November. ANZ and Westpac forecast a 25bp hike to 4.85%. CBA and NAB forecast a hold, and both call a hike a live risk. Westpac's Luci Ellis calls a hike the base case unless the Middle East conflict is resolved or energy costs fall significantly. ANZ calls a hike "more likely than not". https://www.aussie.com.au/insights/news/expert-predictions-rba-rates/ - [2026-09-30] ABS data showed August CPI at 4.0% y/y, up from 3.5% in July and a touch below expectations. Trimmed mean held at 3.6% for a third month. https://www.aussie.com.au/insights/news/expert-predictions-rba-rates/ - [2026-10-13] A Bloomberg-based report on the minutes says traders had priced roughly a one-in-three chance of a November hike before the minutes. It put December at a bit over 50%. The minutes, published today, warned that "waiting for further confirmation of the outlook for inflation could be costly". https://www.briefs.co/news/rba-lifted-rates-as-inflation-risks-built-with-global-tensio/ - [2026-09-24] August labour force data showed unemployment up 0.2pt to 4.6%, a near five-year high, and employment up about 39.5k. Full-time jobs fell. Bullock has said a rise toward 4.5–5% unemployment would help cool inflation. https://ts2.tech/en/australia-unemployment-reaches-4-6-yet-rba-hike-odds-hold-at-96-5/ - [2026-09-21] CBA cited the Middle East conflict and Brent crude above US$100. It said another hike depends on upcoming inflation prints and that conflict. https://www.commbank.com.au/articles/newsroom/2026/09/rba-expected-to-lift-interest-rates-next-week.html - [Upcoming, 2026-10-28] September-quarter CPI, including trimmed mean, is due. This is the key data release before the 2–3 November meeting. The decision is due at 2.30pm AEDT on 3 November. https://www.aussie.com.au/insights/news/expert-predictions-rba-rates/ - [Upcoming] ANZ expects Q3 trimmed mean of about 1% q/q, which it would treat as a material upside surprise against the RBA's August forecasts. https://www.aussie.com.au/insights/news/expert-predictions-rba-rates/ - [2026-10-01] Tracker sites show 4.60% as the current rate, with 4 hikes in 2026. https://www.finspo.com.au/learn/interest-rate-tracker/ BOTTOM LINE: The rate is 4.60% and the November decision is open. Big-bank forecasts are split 2–2, and the one market-pricing figure I found put a hike at roughly 33–41% (as of 29 Sep and 13 Oct). The 28 October Q3 CPI is the main swing factor, with the RBA leaning hawkish and the minutes warning that waiting could be costly. NOT FOUND: Live market pricing for November (ASX futures) as of 13 October. Any RBA speeches or data from the last 7 days beyond the minutes. The RBA's own minutes page, which I did not fetch.

- [2026-10-12] A futures-based model puts the 3 Nov outcome at about 69% hold, 28.5% hike and 2% cut. The cash rate is 4.60%. https://rbaratewatch.com/ - [2026-10-13] OIS-based tracker rateprobability.com shows about 28% hike for 3 Nov and +7.1 bp implied. That is consistent with the model above. https://rateprobability.com/rba - [2026-09-29] The RBA raised the cash rate by 25 bp to 4.60%, unanimously. The statement says the Board will increase the cash rate "further if needed" and that upside risks are materialising. It dropped the earlier "somewhat restrictive" language. This was the 4th hike of 2026. https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html - [2026-10-06] The big four are split on November. ANZ and Westpac forecast a 25 bp hike to 4.85%. Westpac's Luci Ellis calls it the base case unless the Middle East conflict is resolved or energy costs fall. CBA and NAB forecast a hold, with a hike flagged as a live risk. https://www.aussie.com.au/insights/news/expert-predictions-rba-rates/ - [2026-10-06] August monthly CPI was 4.0% year on year, a touch below expectations. Trimmed mean was 3.6% for a third straight month. September-quarter CPI is due 28 Oct, just before the 2–3 Nov meeting, and is the key swing data. ANZ expects about 1% for the quarter. https://www.aussie.com.au/insights/news/expert-predictions-rba-rates/ - [2026-09-29] Admiral Markets says market pricing then was about a 33% chance of a November hike, with a rise almost fully priced by Feb 2027. AMP's Shane Oliver expects cooling data to make a second hike unnecessary. https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/rba-monetary-policy-statement - [2026-08-11] Market pricing for a hike by November was about 50% at the August hold. ANZ then saw the cash rate as peaked, with some risk of a November hike. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026/08-11/reserve-bank-august-interest-rates-somp-asx-markets-blog/107021958 (This URL was reconstructed. Use the search-result link: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-08-11/reserve-bank-august-interest-rates-somp-asx-markets-blog/107021958) - [2026-09-04] Pricing for the September hike went from about 17% before July CPI to about 66% on 4 Sep and about 90% by the meeting. Market odds have swung quickly on CPI and oil, so odds can move a lot in the five weeks before the meeting. https://blog.orbitremit.com/rba-rate-hike-september-2026-market-forecast/ - [2026-09-29] Finder says 90% of its panel correctly predicted the September hike. The market and all four majors also called it. The RBA has rarely surprised pricing in the final week. https://www.finder.com.au/rba-cash-rate - [2026-10-13] Sequence in 2026: hikes in Feb, Mar, May and Sep, with holds in Jun and Aug. The RBA held in Nov 2025 at 3.60%. From the Finder table the rate was 3.6 in Dec 2025, 3.9 in Feb, 4.1 in Mar and 4.4 in May. The Mar hike was a 5–4 vote. Several of these were data-driven shifts. https://www.finder.com.au/rba-cash-rate - [2026-10-12] Bendigo Bank expects a hold through November and December unless data surprise. BofA had called a September hike. https://www.marketscreener.com/news/rba-expected-to-hold-cash-rate-at-4-6-through-november-and-december-bendigo-bank-says-ce785ddfdf8afe26 - Base rate (general knowledge, not sourced this session): the RBA moves at only a minority of meetings. Surprises against final-week pricing are rare. BOTTOM LINE: Market pricing implies roughly 70% for no change and about 28% for a hike. Economists are split 2–2 among the big four, so the outcome depends mainly on the 28 Oct Q3 CPI. Historical RBA behaviour suggests that once pricing is firm a week out, the outcome usually matches it. NOT FOUND: Polymarket's own price (not searched, per instructions). A Reuters or Bloomberg economist poll for November. Official RBA historical hold-frequency statistics. Q3 CPI itself, which has not been released yet.

YES means: the RBA leaves the cash rate target unchanged at 4.60% at its 2–3 November 2026 meeting (no change in the upper bound, and no cut). - [2026-10-13] Pricing for a November hike was about 30% when CBA published its minutes analysis. That means markets still lean towards a hold. CBA's base case is that the rate stays on hold "from here". It still calls a hike "very much live". https://www.commbank.com.au/articles/newsroom/2026/10/rba-minutes-show-why-board-decided-it-could-not-wait-on-inflation.html - [2026-10-13] Mechanism for hold: Bullock's 29 Sept press conference stressed the delayed effect of the four hikes so far and the hope that they would be enough. CBA's Belinda Allen said this contrasts with the minutes, which did not mention policy lags. The Governor's tone is therefore the more dovish signal, and the minutes are the hawkish one. https://www.commbank.com.au/articles/newsroom/2026/10/rba-minutes-show-why-board-decided-it-could-not-wait-on-inflation.html - [2026-10-13] The minutes gave only a brief discussion to the case for holding. That case rested on three things: downside risks to growth and jobs, a weaker housing market and a Middle East drag on demand. All three are visibly materialising. REA data show house prices down six straight months and 3.3% from the March peak. Melbourne is down 5.2% and Sydney 5.0%. Unemployment is at 4.6%. https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/required-rba-grim-rates-warning-005723424.html - [2026-10-13] The minutes' language is conditional ("if required"), not a commitment. The board's "wait costs more" logic was tied to September, when July CPI and GDP had surprised upward. The minutes also say the August forecasts needed several favourable developments that no longer looked likely to all occur. A benign Q3 CPI would restore those developments. https://investinglive.com/central-banks/rba-minutes-show-three-reasons-for-hike-to-4-60-and-leave-door-open-to-further-increases/ - [2026-10-13] Markets price roughly another 15bp by year-end. That is less than one full hike by December across the November and December meetings combined, so November alone is not fully priced. https://investinglive.com/central-banks/rba-minutes-show-three-reasons-for-hike-to-4-60-and-leave-door-open-to-further-increases/ - [2026-09-30] The August monthly CPI at 4.0% was "a touch softer" than expected, and trimmed mean matched the 3.6% consensus for a third month. The monthly print gave no new upside shock. Newsquawk called it the lowest-information outcome for rates. https://www.newsquawk.com/headlines/australian-rba-trimmed-mean-cpi-aug-yy-36-vs-exp-36-prev-36 - [2026-10-xx, current] Trading Economics' forecast for the Sept trimmed mean is 3.6% y/y, which is unchanged. If the 28 Oct print matches that, the board has no fresh surprise to justify a fifth hike five weeks after the fourth. https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/core-inflation-rate - [2026-10-13] The single most likely path to YES is a Q3 trimmed mean in line with or below the roughly 0.9% q/q that the RBA would have expected. It would also need no further oil spike. CBA's and NAB's hold calls apply in that case. CBA itself expects 1.0% q/q, and ANZ also sees about 1%, so the bar is high. That makes this a real-data-dependent path and not a default. https://www.commbank.com.au/articles/newsroom/2026/10/rba-minutes-show-why-board-decided-it-could-not-wait-on-inflation.html - [2026-09-29] The RBA's own statement said the three hikes to date "have tightened financial conditions and the economy appears to be slowing". The September hike was explained as a response to risks materialising within a month, which does not imply a recurring monthly pace. https://www.sbs.com.au/news/live-blog/rba-september-2026-interest-rates-decision-live/k8b1jlim2 - [2026-09-30] Franklin Templeton's Andrew Canobi called it "fine tuning around the top", not a new campaign. He still put a November hike at 50% on 30 Sept, so this is a minority-hawk-lite view. https://financialnewswire.com.au/investment/november-hike-on-the-cards-as-rba-returns-to-hawkish-territory/ - [2026-06-16 and 2026-08-12] Precedent: the RBA paused for two meetings (June and August) after three hikes, on "wait and assess" logic, and held even while AMP expected a further hike. It has shown it will pause when data are soft. The August pause came after softer underlying inflation, jobs and home prices. https://www.amp.com.au/resources/insights-hub/olivers-insights-rba-holds-but-hawkish - [2026-10-21 upcoming] Deputy Governor Hauser speaks on 21 Oct. This is a chance to soften November signals before the CPI print. I did not find its content. https://www.commbank.com.au/articles/newsroom/2026/10/rba-minutes-show-why-board-decided-it-could-not-wait-on-inflation.html BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES case is a hold at 4.60%. It rests on market pricing of about 30% for a hike, a softening economy (house prices, unemployment 4.6%), a Governor who stressed policy lags, and a pause precedent. The path requires a Q3 trimmed mean at or below about 0.9% q/q and no further oil escalation, but CBA and ANZ both expect about 1.0%, so a hold needs a softer print than they forecast. NOT FOUND: The content of Hauser's 21 Oct speech (it has not happened yet), a consensus forecast for Q3 trimmed mean beyond CBA/ANZ, and any live ASX futures figure other than ~30% in CBA's text.

YES means: the RBA leaves the cash rate target unchanged at 4.60% at its 2–3 November 2026 meeting. That is, no hike or cut is announced on 3 November. - [2026-10-13] CBA's Belinda Allen, who forecasts a hold, called the minutes "decisively hawkish" but said they contrasted with Bullock's 29 Sep press conference. At that conference Bullock stressed policy lags and hoped four hikes would be enough. The minutes did not mention lags. This split in tone supports a Governor-led "wait and see" argument. CBA put November hike odds at about 30% when it published. https://www.commbank.com.au/articles/newsroom/2026/10/rba-minutes-show-why-board-decided-it-could-not-wait-on-inflation.html - [2026-10-13] The minutes show the board gave only brief attention to the case for holding. The hold arguments were weaker growth and jobs, a weaker housing market, Middle East demand drag and under-estimated lagged effects of tightening. These are the downside channels a soft Q3 CPI could revive. Same CBA page. - [2026-10-13] Finimize/Reuters says investors put about 28% on a 3 Nov hike after the minutes. The AUD held near 0.6956, so the market did not reprice toward a hike on the hawkish minutes. https://finimize.com/content/aussie-dollar-treads-water-as-rba-turns-more-hawkish - [2026-10-12/13] Bullock told Parliament on 18 Sep that the 2026 hikes are still to flow through, and she declined to give forward guidance on 3 Nov. This was reported by Kalkine. The page returned 403 when I fetched it, so the claim rests on the search snippet. https://kalkine.com.au/news/economic-news/still-to-flow-through-why-bullock-says-this-years-hikes-havent-fully-landed - [2026-09-30] A hike needs a Q3 trimmed-mean surprise. Trading Economics' forecast for annual trimmed mean to September is 3.6%, unchanged from August. August's monthly trimmed mean was 0.2% m/m, versus 0.5% in July. The August print was in line with consensus. ANZ's roughly 1% q/q call is the high-end scenario. https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/core-inflation-rate - [2026-09-30] August headline CPI rose 0.4% m/m, below the 0.5% expected, and was down from 1.0% in July. Part of the 4.0% y/y was the unwinding of the fuel excise relief in August, a one-off level effect. That supports reading the headline as partly temporary. https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/inflation-cpi - [2026-09-29] Dissenters in the Finder pre-September survey (4 of 41 economists) argued for patience. They cited weak growth, rising unemployment and falling home prices. Unemployment hit 4.6% in August, a near five-year high. The Board has already cut tolerance for slack, but another 25bp on top of a September hike would be back-to-back moves. https://www.sbs.com.au/news/live-blog/rba-september-2026-interest-rates-decision-live/k8b1jlim2 - [2026-09-30] Franklin Templeton's Canobi put a November hike at about 50% but said the RBA is "fine tuning around the top" rather than starting a new campaign. https://financialnewswire.com.au/investment/november-hike-on-the-cards-as-rba-returns-to-hawkish-territory/ - [2026-10-13] Deputy Governor Hauser speaks on 21 Oct, a week before the Q3 CPI on 28 Oct. The Q3 CPI is released only 6 days before the decision, and the RBA publishes new forecasts in November. The window for RBA signals before the quiet period is short. I found nothing from Hauser yet. https://www.commbank.com.au/articles/newsroom/2026/10/rba-minutes-show-why-board-decided-it-could-not-wait-on-inflation.html - [2026-08-25] CBA had briefly forecast a November hike in August, after the July CPI surprise. It then reverted to a hold. A forecast can swing on one print, so the majors' split is not stable evidence for a hike. https://www.commbank.com.au/articles/newsroom/2026/08/cba-economists-change-rates-call-to-november-rise.html - [2025-11-04] Precedent: after a hot Q3 2025 CPI (trimmed mean 1.0% q/q versus 0.8% expected), the RBA still held at 3.60%, unanimously and with no other options discussed. A hot print alone did not trigger a move. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11-04/rba-keeps-rates-steady-in-november-2025/105969614 - [Resolution mechanics] Any cancellation or postponement resolves to "No Change", and emergency intermeeting moves are ignored. Only a 3 Nov hike (or cut) resolves NO. The window for a surprise is narrow. The decision is due 2.30pm AEDT on 3 Nov, before the 4 Nov close. BOTTOM LINE: The NO-on-hike case is mostly status quo and pricing: the market is about 70% hold. The RBA also needs a clear Q3 trimmed-mean upside surprise, since the August data were in line, and Bullock stressed policy lags. The weak spot is the hawkish minutes and the "waiting could be costly" language, which lower the bar for a hike. NOT FOUND: Any Hauser comments (due 21 Oct). Q3 CPI consensus beyond a Trading Economics forecast. A Reuters poll. A readable Kalkine page. Live ASX futures.