Will Connecticut’s annual average employment in Insurance Carriers and Related Activities for 2026 be above 54,600 employees?

- [2026-10-13] The BLS API for SMU09000005552400001 shows 2026 NSA monthly values (thousands): Jan 54.5, Feb 54.4, Mar 54.4, Apr 53.9, May 53.8, Jun 54.2, Jul 54.4, Aug 53.8 (preliminary, the latest month). The Jan–Aug sum is 433.4, an average of about 54.18. https://api.bls.gov/publicAPI/v2/timeseries/data/SMU09000005552400001?startyear=2024&endyear=2026 - [2026-10-13] Required arithmetic: for the 2026 average to be above 54.6 (655.2 total), Sep–Dec would need to sum to more than about 221.8. That is an average above about 55.45 a month. Since Jan 2025 the series has not exceeded 55.6, which was July 2025. Sep–Dec 2025 ran 54.8, 54.9, 54.8 and 54.8. - [2026-09-17] The CT DOL CES page (updated 2026-09-17) shows Insurance Carriers & Related Activities at 53,800 for Aug 2026, against 55,200 in Aug 2025 (-1,400, -2.5%). Jul was 54,400. Financial Activities was down 3,000 (-2.5%) year on year. https://www1.ctdol.state.ct.us/lmi/ces/nfstatcm.asp - [2026-09-17] The CT DOL Labor Situation for Aug 2026 shows total CT nonfarm jobs roughly flat over Jul–Aug. Finance & Insurance is down about 2.1–2.6% year on year. The unemployment rate was 5.1%, up a full point from a year earlier. https://www1.ctdol.state.ct.us/lmi/laborsit.asp - [2025 history] The 2025 monthly values sum to about 653.4 (average about 54.45). The 2024 average was about 55.3. The 2026 trend is down from both. Source: BLS API link above. - [2026-09-18] FRED (BLS source) shows CT direct life insurance carriers at 16.8k in Aug 2026, down from 17.1k in Jul. The next state release is 2026-10-20 (Sep data). https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SMU09000005552411301 - [2026-10-08] The national insurance carriers and related activities sector lost 2,300 jobs in September 2026, and 6,300 in August, per the Jacobson Labor Market PULSE. This points to national softness. https://www.jacobsononline.com/blog/october-2026-labor-market-pulse/ - [Scheduled] The Sep 2026 state data is due 2026-10-20. Oct and Nov data come in November and December. The Dec 2026 data and the annual average, with the annual benchmark revision, come out around March 2027, before the 2027-04-30 close. The CT DOL page says data are benchmarked to March 2024. A March 2027 benchmark could revise the 2026 levels, and the first-published annual average is what resolves. BOTTOM LINE: Through Aug 2026 the YTD average is about 54.18k, and the remaining four months would need to average above about 55.45k, which is well above anything seen in the last 20 months. The main upside risk is the early-2027 benchmark revision, which could shift the whole series. NOT FOUND: The Sep 2026 CT value (not yet released). The size or direction of the March 2027 benchmark revision. Any official BLS annual-average figure for 2026.

- [2026-09-18] FRED/BLS series SMU09000005552400001 (NSA, thousands) shows 2026 monthly values: Jan 54.5, Feb 54.4, Mar 54.4, Apr 53.9, May 53.8, Jun 54.2, Jul 54.4, Aug 53.8. The Jan–Aug mean is about 54.18 (433.4/8). Sep 2026 data is not yet published. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/SMU09000005552400001.txt - [2026-10-13] Arithmetic from the above: a 2026 annual average of 54.6 or higher needs Sep–Dec to average about 55.6 or more. For a published value above 54.6 (so at least 54.7 at one decimal), Sep–Dec would need about 56.1 or more. Aug 2026 was 53.8. Sep–Dec has been seasonally 0.3–1.0 below the Jun–Aug peak. Both thresholds are well above any 2026 monthly reading. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/SMU09000005552400001.txt - [2025] The 2025 monthly values average about 54.6 (my calculation from FRED: 655.4/12). The strike therefore appears to be set at last year's level. 2025 had a one-month spike in Jul (55.6) and was otherwise 54.0–55.2. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/SMU09000005552400001.txt - [2024-2025] Annual averages from FRED monthly data (my calculations, approximate): 2023 about 55.8, 2024 about 55.2, 2025 about 54.6. Each year is lower than the one before. Dec-to-Dec changes: 2023→2024 −0.9, 2024→2025 −0.1. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/SMU09000005552400001.txt - [Long run] The series has fallen from about 68–69 in 2002–03 to 62 in 2012–13, 58–59 in 2019, 56 in 2022 and 54–55 now. The 2021 annual average was about 56.2. Annual-average rises are rare in this series, and the 2021 rebound (+0.3 in Oct–Dec) was small. The 2026 YTD average (54.18) is below 2025's. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/SMU09000005552400001.txt - [2026-09-17] CT DOL says overall payrolls are growing (+0.8% YTD in 2026, record private-sector level), but the June report named Finance & Insurance among the biggest decliners. CT DOL's director projects "slow, steady" job growth for 2026. https://portal.ct.gov/dol/communications/press-room/2026/ct-dept-of-labor-august-jobs-down-300 - [2026-06] The mid-year report listed Finance & Insurance among the largest June declines. https://portal.ct.gov/dol/communications/press-room/2026/ct-dept-of-labor-mid-year-jobs-report-payroll-jobs-at-all-time-high-employers-add-1500-jobs-in-june?language=en_US - [2026-08] Sub-series context: CT Direct Life Insurance Carriers (NSA) was 16.8 in Aug 2026, down from 17.1 in Jul. The next FRED/BLS release is listed as 2026-10-20 (September data). https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SMU09000005552411301 - [2026-08] National NAICS 524 employment (SA) is drifting down: 2,946.4 in May, 2,942.5 in Jun, 2,936.3 in Jul (p) and 2,930.0 in Aug (p) (thousands). That is no tailwind for a Connecticut rebound. https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag524.htm - [2013-11] Historical context from the NAIC/Insurance Journal: CT insurance carriers and related employment fell 1.8% in 2012 (61,583→60,429). This is a long-running secular decline, not a cyclical one. https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/east/2013/11/21/311967.htm - [Caveat] The first BLS-published annual average will probably come with the March 2027 benchmark revision, which can shift 2026 monthly levels. Revisions to this small series are typically a few tenths of a thousand, though I did not quantify the revision history. The benchmark could in principle lift the level, but it would have to add roughly 0.5 or more. BOTTOM LINE: The outside view clearly points to No. The 2026 YTD average is about 54.2, the series has declined year over year for several years, and Sep–Dec would need to average about 56 to push the annual figure above 54.6. The main residual risk is a benchmark revision in early 2027 that raises 2026 levels. NOT FOUND: Any existing forecasts or expert estimates for this series, and sibling Kalshi strikes (I did not search for the contract's own price). Historical size of benchmark revisions for this specific series. September 2026 data, which is not yet released.

YES means: BLS's first-published 2026 annual average for Connecticut NAICS 524 (series SMU09000005552400001) is above 54.6 thousand, so at least 54.7 at one decimal. I could not build a strong evidence-backed YES case. The data I found points the other way. The paths below are ordered from least to most implausible. - [2026-08-28] BLS's preliminary benchmark release for March 2026 gives Connecticut a revision of -5.1. The unit looks like thousands of total nonfarm jobs, but I could not confirm that from the fetched text. BLS's statewide figure was an average absolute revision of 0.4%, with 28 states revised up. The final benchmark is due March 2027 and will revise not-seasonally-adjusted data from April 2025 to December 2026. A negative Connecticut total is not a tailwind for YES. The release has no detail for NAICS 524. Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/presae_08282026.htm - [2026-08-28] Nationally, the preliminary benchmark was small, at -79k (-0.1%). Financial activities was one of the sectors revised up, but that is a national figure, not Connecticut's. This is the only upward-revision hint I found, and it is weak. Source: https://edgeconsultancykw.com/us-bls-preliminary-benchmark-march-payrolls-79000-below-estimate/ - [2026-09-17] The CT DOL not-seasonally-adjusted table shows July 54,400 and August 53,800, a 600 drop in one month. Total Connecticut nonfarm was 1,721,800, up 1.1% on the year. Financial Activities was down 2,500, and Finance & Insurance was down 2,600. Insurance Carriers was therefore falling faster than the state total. A YES needs that gap to reverse sharply. Source: https://www1.ctdol.state.ct.us/lmi/ces/nfstatcm.asp - [2026-09-17] The CT DOL release says August seasonally adjusted payrolls were 1,730,500, with five solid months of growth before the August dip. Private-sector employment is at a record, and CT DOL's Flaherty calls August's drop "small". This supports a "steady" overall labor market. It does not touch insurance specifically, and the previous reports already showed the sector's weakness. Source: https://www1.ctdol.state.ct.us/lmi/laborsit.asp - [2026-09-17] Commissioner Bartolomeo said "Employers continue to be cautious about hiring". The release says healthcare and construction added jobs. It does not mention insurance. Source: https://portal.ct.gov/dol/communications/press-room/2026/ct-dept-of-labor-august-jobs-down-300 - [2026-10] The Glassdoor listing shows 238 open insurance agent jobs in Connecticut. Carriers such as Travelers and Zurich, and agencies, are posting roles. This shows demand for hiring but is not employment data and gives no net-change evidence. Source: https://www.glassdoor.com/Job/connecticut-insurance-agent-jobs-SRCH_IL.0,11_IS2697_KO12,27.htm - [2026-10-19] The September state data is the next test. CT DOL's September Labor Situation is scheduled for October 19, ahead of BLS's October 20 release. A YES path needs September to jump to about 55.5 or higher. It would also need October to December to hold at or above 55.5, against an August level of 53.8. Source: https://www1.ctdol.state.ct.us/lmi/laborsit.asp - [Path to YES] The most plausible route combines three things. First, September to December must rebound seasonally, as in 2025 when the series sat at 54.8–54.9. Second, the March 2027 benchmark must lift 2026 levels by about 0.5–1.0 or more. Third, the revision must apply to the final-quarter months in the right direction. In the data I found, nothing makes this combination likely. BOTTOM LINE: The only credible YES path is a large upward benchmark revision to the 2026 NAICS 524 levels, combined with a strong September–December rebound. The preliminary Connecticut benchmark (-5.1) and the August drop to 53.8 argue against it. NOT FOUND: A Connecticut NAICS 524 benchmark revision from the preliminary release, or any historical size for it. September 2026 Connecticut insurance data. Any Connecticut insurer layoff, hiring, or expansion announcement for 2026 that would affect the annual average. Any other analyst or sibling-market estimate for this series.

YES means: the first BLS-published 2026 annual average for CT NAICS 524 (series SMU09000005552400001) is above 54.6 thousand, so 54.7 or higher at one decimal. - [2026-08-28] BLS's preliminary state benchmark for March 2026 says the final benchmark will be published in March 2027 with the January 2027 state release. It will revise NSA data from April 2025 to December 2026. The 2026 annual average is therefore a mix of sample estimates and QCEW-anchored levels. The all-state average absolute revision was only 0.4% of total nonfarm. I could not see CT's own figure or any CT industry-level figure. This is the only route to YES, and it needs a large, positive, industry-specific shift. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/presae.htm - [2026-04-08] The BLS benchmark article gives CT total-nonfarm revisions of -1.0, 0.7, 0.2, 0.0, -0.1 and 0.0 percent for Sep 2020 to Sep 2025. Recent benchmarks have been near zero. A 0.5k lift on a roughly 54k series is about 1%, which is larger than any CT total revision since 2021. https://www.bls.gov/sae/publications/benchmark-article/annual-benchmark-article.htm - [2026-04-08] The same article says BLS cut about 900 detailed-industry state and area series with the January 2026 data, citing low or declining employment or sample coverage. Detailed industries are noisier than totals, but sub-industries are being thinned, not enriched. This gives no support for an upward step in CT insurance. https://www.bls.gov/sae/publications/benchmark-article/annual-benchmark-article.htm - [2026-08-21] The CT QCEW count is 1,668,200 for March 2026, down 0.4% year on year. Planning-region employment fell in 5 of the 6 largest regions. The census-based count is soft, so the benchmark is not obviously set to lift CT levels. https://www.bls.gov/regions/northeast/news-release/countyemploymentandwages_connecticut.htm - [2026-09-17] CT DOL says Financial Activities is down 200 on the month, to 115,100. Six of the ten supersectors fell in August. The Hartford LMA, home to most CT insurers, lost 400 jobs. No local sign of an insurance rebound heading into Sep–Dec. https://www1.ctdol.state.ct.us/lmi/laborsit.asp - [2026-09-17] Total CT payrolls are up 0.9% year on year, but that comes from healthcare, construction and the like. The CT DOL says Finance & Insurance was among the largest June decliners. A rising total with falling insurance means a broad rebound is not expected. https://www1.ctdol.state.ct.us/lmi/ctnonfarmtable.asp - [2026 H1] Announced layoffs hit CT insurers. CVS/Aetna notified of 313 Hartford-assigned layoffs between Apr 3 and Jul 31, and Talcott Resolution of 101 at One American Row, effective Apr 24. These line up with the Apr–May drop to 53.8–53.9. The Aetna cuts ran through July, so Sep–Dec lacks an offsetting hiring catalyst. https://patch.com/connecticut/across-ct/more-2-200-company-layoffs-announced-ct-2026-economic-woes-continue-bite - [2026 YTD] National insurance carriers and related activities employment peaked in Feb 2025 at about 3.03 million. It lost jobs in each of Jan–Apr 2026, and about 9,100 each in March and April. It was down about 69,000 from the peak. This shows a sector-wide cut cycle, not a CT-only blip. https://www.beckerspayer.com/workforce/insurance-industry-job-cuts-continue-to-climb/ - [2026-08-28] The national preliminary benchmark marked total nonfarm down 79,000 (0.1%). Financial activities were revised up. Preliminary benchmarks have pushed estimates lower in seven of the last eight years. The financial-activities upward revision is the one point favouring YES, but it is national and small. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/bls-revises-u-job-growth-172153070.html - [2026-09-17] The CT DOL release schedule has the September labor situation on 2026-10-19. The Oct, Nov and Dec data follow in Nov, Dec and Jan. Even a strong print for one month cannot lift the average enough. After the Aug 53.8, one 55.5 print would still leave the other three months needing to average above about 55.4. https://www1.ctdol.state.ct.us/lmi/laborsit.asp - [Resolution mechanics] The market resolves on the first-published annual average, not on a later revision. Because Jan–Aug is about 54.18, a published value above 54.6 needs the benchmark to shift the 2026 level up by roughly 0.5k or more at the series' own noise scale. The default of no change gives NO. A level shift would also have to come from QCEW, not from a monthly rebound. BOTTOM LINE: A NO is the status-quo outcome. The Jan–Aug average is about 54.2, there is no CT or national tailwind, and Sep–Dec would need to average about 56 for a published 54.7 or higher. Only a large positive March 2027 benchmark revision to this specific detailed series could produce YES, and recent CT benchmark revisions have been near zero. NOT FOUND: CT's own preliminary March 2026 benchmark percentage; the history of benchmark revisions for this specific NAICS 524 series; the Sep 2026 CT value; any forecast of the 2026 annual average.