Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in November 2026? — Above 0.2%

- [2026-09-11] The August CPI-U rose 0.4% seasonally adjusted, after +0.1% in July. The 12-month rate was 3.4%. Gasoline rose 3.9% and accounted for over a third of the monthly gain. Core rose 0.3% (2.4% y/y). Energy was +16.3% y/y. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htm - [2026-10-14, scheduled] The September CPI is due Oct 14 at 8:30 ET. It has not been released as of today. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf - [2026-10-13] The Dow Jones consensus for September is headline +0.6% m/m and 3.6% y/y, with core +0.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y. RSM's Brusuelas sees "real upside risk". Brent rose more than 14% in September and was about $105 on Oct 13. The Fed raised rates in September and futures price the next hike in December. https://cnbc.com/2026/10/13/september-consumer-price-index-inflation.html - [2026-10-13] Cleveland Fed nowcast for October 2026: CPI +0.27% m/m (3.63% y/y), core +0.20%. September y/y is nowcast at 3.60%. Q4 2026 CPI is nowcast at 4.5% annualized. There is no November monthly nowcast yet. https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting - [2026-10-13] The AAA national average for regular gasoline was $4.341, down from $4.37 a week earlier and up from $4.31 a month earlier. The September peak was about $4.48 (AAA, 09-24), and the May peak was also $4.48 per LendingTree. Pump prices are roughly flat to slightly lower into mid-October. https://oilgasprices.com/ - [2026-10-13] RBOB gasoline futures were about $3.24/gal, down 1.6% on the day and down 2.3% over the past month. Traders were weighing a possible Russia–Ukraine energy ceasefire. Hormuz flows were reported at about 98% of pre-war levels, though tanker attacks continued. https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gasoline - [2026-10-08] AAA said pump prices were at record highs for this time of year, at $4.36 after a 5-cent weekly drop. https://gasprices.aaa.com/news/ - [2026-10-02/10-04] The September jobs report showed +29k jobs and 4.2% unemployment. The Fed hiked to 3.75–4.00% on Sep 16. FOMC meets Oct 27–28 and Dec 9. Hike odds for October were about 17–26%, and a December hike was largely priced. https://jorgai.com/blog/september-2026-cpi-report-preview-october-14 and https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/us-cpi-september-2026-scenarios-fed-october - [2026-02-18, BLS schedule] The October CPI is due Nov 10. The November 2026 CPI is due Thursday Dec 10 at 8:30 AM, which matches the contract close. https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/current_year.asp - [2026-04/09] Background: CPI y/y was 2.4% in January, 3.3% in March and 3.8% in April, after the Iran war and Hormuz closure shock. The Q2 SPF expected 2026 Q4/Q4 headline CPI of 3.5%. https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-q2-2026 - [2025-10/11] Precedent: the October 2025 CPI was not published because of the 2025 appropriations lapse. The rules extend the expiry if a shutdown delays the release. I found no sign of a current shutdown threat. https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm - Resolution note: BLS headlines the seasonally adjusted m/m change. Recent prints were +0.1% (Jul) and +0.4% (Aug), and the September consensus is +0.6%. "Above 0.2%" means a published figure of 0.3% or higher. BOTTOM LINE: Headline inflation is running hot because of energy (Brent about $105). The Cleveland Fed nowcasts October at +0.27% with core at 0.20%. Gasoline has plateaued or edged lower into mid-October, so November depends mostly on October–November oil and pump prices. The Oct 14 (September) and Nov 10 (October) prints are the key updates before the Dec 10 release. NOT FOUND: A November 2026 m/m consensus or nowcast, since it is too early. The September CPI actual, which is due tomorrow. November seasonal-factor details. Any current shutdown threat to the Dec 10 release.

- [2026-10-13] Cleveland Fed nowcast (updated 10/13): October 2026 CPI is +0.27% m/m, with core at +0.20%. Y/Y is 3.63% for October and 3.60% for September. Its Q4 2026 annualized CPI is 4.50%. September is +0.53% m/m, but that month is not the contract month. There is no November nowcast yet. https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting - [2026-10-13] Recent prints (BLS via Trading Economics and Admiral): June 2026 was -0.4%, July +0.1% and August +0.4%. August core was +0.3%. August y/y headline was 3.4%, energy was +2.1% m/m, and gasoline was +27.4% y/y. This is a volatile, energy-driven regime, so recent m/m prints are widely dispersed around 0.2%. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi - [2026-10-13] Y/Y headline path in 2026: January 2.4%, March 3.3%, April 3.8% and May 4.2% (peak). The oil shock was linked to Hormuz and Middle East tensions. A June–July retreat followed, then a rebound in August–September. https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-733 and https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-cpi-report-november-2026/ - [2026-10-12] CNBC reports Kalshi traders expect September CPI at 3.6% y/y, versus 3.4% in August. They give just under 1-in-3 odds of a new 2026 high above 4.2%, and about 21% odds that December exceeds 4.0% (per CryptoBriefing). That implies a sticky, not collapsing, inflation path. These are other-strike markets, not the November m/m contract. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/12/inflation-will-remain-sticky-in-2026-according-to-prediction-markets.html - [2026-10-12] Substack commentary: the Fed hiked to 3.75–4.00% in September and meets again October 28. Record gasoline prices tied to the Hormuz disruption are driving headline CPI. Prediction markets put about 60% on a September headline of 0.6% or higher. The same piece says these markets have priced core too hot over the last two years (an opinion source, unverified). https://thealetheanarrative.substack.com/p/the-cpi-odds-are-hot-history-says - [2026-06] Philadelphia Fed Q2 SPF: Q4/Q4 2026 headline CPI is expected at 3.5% and core at 2.9%, up from 2.6% previously. A 3.5% Q4/Q4 rate with YTD inflation already high implies an average of roughly 0.2–0.3% per month for the rest of the year. https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-q2-2026 - [2026-10-13] Historical NSA CPI-U index levels (October→November change). The contract uses the seasonally adjusted m/m, so these are indicative only. - 2024: 315.664→315.493 (−0.05%). - 2023: 307.671→307.051 (−0.2%). - 2022: 298.012→297.711 (−0.1%). - 2021: 276.589→277.948 (+0.5%). - 2019: −0.05%. - 2018: −0.3%. - November NSA is usually soft because of falling gasoline and seasonal factors, so the seasonal adjustment lifts the SA figure. The November 2025 m/m is unavailable, because the October 2025 CPI was never published due to the shutdown. https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/consumer-price-index-and-annual-percent-changes-from-1913-to-2008/ - [2026-10-13] Base rate for SA November m/m headline above 0.2% (from my recollection of BLS releases; I did not verify these on a fetched page). 2017 +0.4, 2018 0.0, 2019 +0.2, 2020 +0.2, 2021 +0.8, 2022 +0.1, 2023 +0.1 and 2024 +0.3. That is about 3 of 8 above 0.2 (roughly 35–40%), in a mostly 2–3% inflation era. The 2026 regime, with a 3.4–3.6% y/y rate and an energy shock, is hotter than most of that sample. Treat the base rate as weakly informative. - [2026-12-10] Release timing: the November 2026 CPI is scheduled for December 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET, per the BLS schedule. The Kalshi market closes at 8:29 AM that day. The October CPI is due November 10. The shutdown clause is only relevant if a new shutdown disrupts the release, and the January 2026 CPI was already delayed by one (to Feb 13). https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/current_year.asp - [2026-10-07] Core CPI is running around +0.2–0.3% m/m: the Cleveland nowcast for September and October core is 0.20%, and August actual core was 0.3%. With core near 0.2–0.25%, a headline above 0.2% (rounded 0.3 or higher) in November needs energy and food to add a positive contribution. https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/us-cpi-preview-september-2026-forecasts-and-the-core-cpi-outlook - [2026-10-12] Kalshi inflation markets have a good record: Semafor and a Fed study (February 2026) report high precision for them. The Fed study found Kalshi useful for measuring macro expectations. Wikipedia summarizes both. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalshi - [2026-10-13] Consensus and nowcast context: the September y/y consensus is about 3.6–3.7%, and the Cleveland Fed nowcast (3.60%) is in line. No consensus for November m/m exists yet. The long-range longforecast.com model puts November y/y at about 3.44–3.48%, implying a modest m/m. It is a low-quality statistical model. https://longforecast.com/us-cpi BOTTOM LINE: The unconditional base rate for an SA November m/m above 0.2% is about 35–40% (from memory, unverified). The current regime has energy-driven volatility and core near 0.2–0.3%. The nowcast for October (+0.27%) puts the near-term central estimate right at the 0.2/0.3 boundary. So this outside view leans only slightly above the historical base rate, and the November energy-price path decides it. NOT FOUND: a November 2026 m/m consensus, a Cleveland Fed November nowcast, and a fetched, verified table of SA November m/m prints. The September CPI (due Oct 14) is also not out yet. I did not look for the contract's own price, as instructed.

YES means: the BLS seasonally adjusted all-items CPI-U change for November 2026 (released Dec 10) is published as 0.3% or higher. - [2026-10-06] EIA's October STEO assumes Brent averages $105/b in Q4 2026, which is $14 above the September forecast. It expects diesel to stay above $6/gal in October, and East Coast distillate stocks to run 20–30% below average through winter. Tight distillates support transport, airfare and freight pass-through into November CPI. Caveat: Brent averaged $114 in September, so $105 is itself a step down. Retail gasoline averaged $4.35 in September. https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press593.php - [2026-10-11] The September preview cites Westpac's calendar for headline +0.6% and energy about +5.5%. Airfares are rising as jet fuel costs pass through. Brent is still above $100 after fresh attacks on Saudi infrastructure. The Fed, with Goldman, had assumed oil would fall toward $85 and that has not happened. Energy risk is an ongoing driver, not a one-off. https://investinglive.com/stocks/us-cpi-preview-energy-set-to-lift-inflation-to-3-7-core-seen-steady-at-2-4 - [2026-10-11] August core of +0.3% was boosted by a one-off telephone-services jump from a methodology change. Core of about 0.2% in September is therefore a payback, not a trend. If core normalizes to 0.25–0.3% by November, headline needs only a small non-negative energy contribution to round to 0.3. https://investinglive.com/stocks/us-cpi-preview-energy-set-to-lift-inflation-to-3-7-core-seen-steady-at-2-4 - [2026-10-08] NY Fed research (revised September) finds tariffs lifted goods prices by 2.9 points by February 2026, fading to about 2% by August after a Supreme Court ruling. Indirect pass-through builds slowly through input costs and markups. This is a modest core-goods tailwind that is fading, not growing. https://qz.com/ny-fed-trump-tariffs-consumer-goods-inflation-100826 - [2026-08-28] Minneapolis Fed finds tariffs add 0.2–0.4 points to core inflation as of July. AI-related tech goods prices are also rising fast. Core PCE was 3.3% y/y, the highest since 2023 outside the pandemic. This supports core goods staying firm. https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2026/initially-delayed-the-pass-through-of-tariffs-to-consumer-prices-has-arrived - [2026-10-11] Goolsbee says an AI boom is "overheating" inflation and the Fed may hike again. That is a policymaker view of demand-driven price pressure beyond energy. It is not a data point. https://investinglive.com/stocks/us-cpi-preview-energy-set-to-lift-inflation-to-3-7-core-seen-steady-at-2-4 - [2026-06-10] Seasonal mechanism: November 2025 SA gasoline was +2.7% m/m (BLS table), when prices usually fall seasonally. Seasonal factors subtract the typical autumn gasoline drop. A flat NSA gasoline price in November therefore shows up as a positive SA contribution. Gasoline held near $4.34–4.48 through Sept–Oct (colleagues' reports) is consistent with that. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_06102026.htm - [2026-09-11] BLS says August gasoline was +3.9% SA but only +2.5% NSA. Seasonals are currently adding about 1.4 points to gasoline. In November the seasonal drag is larger, so the SA uplift on a flat NSA price could be bigger still. This is a mechanism, and I did not verify the November factor. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf - [2023-12-12] Counter-evidence a YES advocate must handle: in November 2023 gasoline fell 6.0% and headline was only +0.1% despite core +0.3%. A November oil retreat, for example from a Russia–Ukraine or Hormuz de-escalation, would sink the YES case. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_12122023.htm - [2026-10-13] Cleveland Fed's October nowcast of +0.27% with core at 0.20% (colleagues' report) implies a gasoline-driven headline above core. The nowcast method uses current oil and gasoline levels as a guide to the next month. With Brent still around $105, a November nowcast would probably also sit near 0.2–0.3. Cleveland's SA gasoline series is the same series BLS publishes. https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting **Most likely path to YES:** Brent stays at or above $100 and pump prices stay near $4.30–4.40 through November. Seasonal adjustment then turns roughly flat NSA gasoline into a positive SA gasoline contribution. Diesel and jet-fuel pass-through keeps airfares and transport costs rising. Core returns to 0.25–0.3% as the August and September distortions wash out. The result is a headline of 0.3% or more. The prerequisites are no sharp oil-price break in late October or November, and no core below 0.2%. BOTTOM LINE: The best YES case rests on persistent energy: Brent near $105, tight diesel, seasonal adjustment lifting flat November gasoline, and core goods pressure from tariffs and AI. The main weakness is that the EIA's $105 Q4 average implies lower oil than September's $114. Any de-escalation would remove the energy support. NOT FOUND: a November 2026 m/m consensus or nowcast, the November 2026 seasonal factors for gasoline, and the September CPI actual, which is due Oct 14.

YES means: the BLS-published seasonally adjusted all-items CPI-U change for November 2026, released Dec 10, 2026, is 0.3% or higher. - [2026-10-06] The EIA October STEO has gasoline "about the same in October as September and then slowly" [falling]. September retail gasoline averaged $4.35. EIA's Q4 Brent forecast is $105. For NO, a flat-to-lower pump price in Oct–Nov means gasoline adds nothing in November. Brent averaged $114 in September, so spot is already about $9 below that average. Retail prices lag crude, so there is room for pass-through to fade. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf (search snippet; the fetch of the STEO page failed). Rigzone corroborates the $114 September Brent average: https://www.rigzone.com/news/eia_boosts_oil_price_forecast_by_5_in_2026_10_in_2027-08-oct-2026-184805-article/ - [2026-10-13] WTI was about $92.7 on Oct 13 (LiteFinance), against a September average of $97.31 (storagecurve, EIA data). Crude is already below the September average. The September gasoline spike would then stay in the base without adding to November. WalletInvestor, a low-quality model, sees WTI falling in Nov–Dec. https://www.litefinance.org/blog/analysts-opinions/oil-price-prediction-forecast/ - [2026-09-11] Seasonal-adjustment mechanism, from the August release: gasoline rose 3.9% SA but 2.5% NSA. BLS seasonal factors therefore subtract in late summer and add in autumn. In November the factor usually lifts the SA gasoline change (Nov 2025: +3.0% SA against about −5% NSA in December; Nov 2023: −6.0% SA). NO needs pump prices to fall in November by more than the seasonal allowance. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm - [2026-09-11] SA gasoline path in 2026: Mar +21.2, Apr +5.4, May +7.0, Jun −9.7, Jul −2.9, Aug +3.9. Spikes have repeatedly been followed by outright declines (Jun −0.4% headline). A mean-reverting energy leg is a live precedent for a sub-0.3 print. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm - [2026-10-13] Kalshi has 50-50 odds that gas is above $4.25 on Nov 3 (CNBC, 09-14). AAA was at $4.34 on Oct 13, so the market's median is a modest drift lower. A move from $4.34 to $4.25 is about −2%. Combined with core near 0.2%, that would give a headline of about 0.1–0.2%, which is NO. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/14/prediction-markets-traders-think-gas-prices-will-hit-new-highs-in-2026.html - [2023-12-12 and 2022-12-13] BLS November prints: 2022 +0.1% (energy −1.6%, core 0.2%) and 2023 +0.1% (gasoline −6.0%, core 0.3%). Both came in a high-inflation backdrop. Even with core at 0.3% in 2023, a gasoline drop held headline at 0.1%. Energy reversal in November has dragged the print below 0.3% before. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_12122023.htm and https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_12132022.htm - [2025-12-18] Technicality: the Nov 2025 BLS release shows no one-month Oct→Nov 2025 change because October 2025 was not collected. This does not affect the Nov 2026 m/m, which is Oct 2026→Nov 2026, with both months collected. It does mean the 2025 seasonal factors rest on imputed data, which is a minor noise source. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_12182025.htm - [2026-10-13] Rounding technicality: "more than 0.2%" is judged on the single-decimal published figure. An unrounded 0.25–0.249% therefore resolves NO only if it rounds to 0.2. The Cleveland Fed October nowcast of +0.27% rounds to 0.3, so there is no cushion from rounding. Core near 0.20% leaves headline at 0.3 or above only if energy stays positive. https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting - [2026-09-02] Shutdown/delay risk is not a NO path. The CR signed Sep 2 funds the government to Dec 11, one day after the Dec 10 release. A lapse before the release is unlikely, and the rules extend expiry rather than resolve NO. The status quo is a release on schedule. https://govtschemes.org/government-shutdown-october-2026/ and https://www.pgpf.org/article/what-is-a-continuing-resolution/ - [2026-10-08] Rigzone and DTN note Middle East export flows are recovering, with an offsetting Russia–Ukraine ceasefire hope (colleagues, Oct 13). The EIA expects Brent to fall to $84 in 2027. Any de-escalation before mid-November would push November gasoline sharply lower. This is the main NO catalyst. https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/world-policy/article/2026/10/06/oil-steadies-steo-outlooks-awaits BOTTOM LINE: The NO case is energy mean-reversion. EIA expects flat-to-slowly-falling pump prices, crude is below its September average, and November has produced sub-0.3 prints (+0.1 in 2022 and 2023) when gasoline fell. With core around 0.2%, a 0.3+ headline needs energy to keep rising, which is not the central forecast but is not ruled out given the Oct nowcast of +0.27%. NOT FOUND: A November 2026 m/m consensus or nowcast. The Nov 2026 SA gasoline seasonal factor (I could not open the BLS factor file). The September CPI actual. The EIA STEO page failed to fetch, so the STEO claims rest on search snippets and Rigzone.