US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

**Framing:** The formal US–Iran ceasefire is no longer in force. It ended in July. This market resolves "Yes" unless the US conducts a qualifying air or surface-to-surface strike on Iranian land by 31 Oct. So the live question is whether the current informal lull holds. - [2026-10-13] CBS live blog, updated 11:37 EDT: Houthi–Saudi fighting is described as the "epicenter" of the war. Trump says he is considering joining Saudi strikes on the Houthis in Yemen. Asked whether a Houthi strike on Riyadh's airport would change his pledge not to hit Iran before the midterms, he said "we're gonna take a look". Brent is above $105. https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-us-trump-saudi-arabia-houthi/ - [2026-10-12] Pentagon: a US fighter jet struck and disabled a commercial vessel in the Gulf of Oman that had just left an Iranian port. This is a maritime action, not a strike on Iranian territory. Iranian ports have been under US blockade since the ceasefire collapsed in July. https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-us-trump-saudi-arabia-houthi/ - [2026-10-08] AP via Britannica: Trump says the US will not resume military strikes on Iran before the 3 Nov midterms. He is keeping the blockade. https://www.britannica.com/event/2026-Iran-war - [2026-10-08] GlobalSecurity (snippet only; page returned HTTP 402): no US strike on Iranian territory was reported for 8–10 Oct. The NYT reported that the administration was weighing a three-day campaign against Iranian drone, missile, energy and leadership targets. On 9 Oct the IRGC Navy fired on an LPG tanker, and the Iranian military threatened preemptive strikes on US positions. https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iran-war-oprep.htm - [2026-09-28] Trump rejected Iran's seven-day proposal. It would reopen Hormuz and resume nuclear talks if the US lifts the blockade, waives oil sanctions and observes a ceasefire that includes Lebanon. He said he is "always thinking" about resuming strikes. https://thehill.com/policy/international/6114543-donald-trump-us-iran-war-peace-talks/ - [2026-09-28] Indirect talks via Qatari mediators were expected to continue. Iran's UN delegation said it had no plans for direct talks, and Iran said it is ready for either diplomacy or a return to fighting. https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-us-trump-talks-strait-of-hormuz/ - [2026-09-02] The IRGC said it struck US positions in Jordan, Bahrain and Iraq in response to US attacks. This shows the US was still striking in early September, after the July collapse. Wikipedia describes it as one of Tehran's most extensive responses since the ceasefire began. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iranian_strikes_on_Arab_countries - [2026-08-17] Trump declined to extend the ceasefire. Araghchi said the two sides do "not have anything like a ceasefire". https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/17/us-iran-war-trump-hormuz.html - [2026-07-10] Trump declared "the Cease Fire is OVER!" The US had hit Iranian sites after tanker attacks, and Iran retaliated against US bases in Gulf states. Talks were to continue. https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/trump-us-agreed-iran-request-continue-talks-ceasefire-rcna385833 - [2026-07-14] CENTCOM reimposed the naval blockade of Iranian ports, reviving the one that ran from mid-April to mid-June. (The date is inferred from "Tuesday" in a CBS item roughly 90 days old.) https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/us-iran-war-trump-ceasefire-attacks-strait-of-hormuz/ - [2026-06-17] The Islamabad Memorandum was signed, with a 60-day negotiating window. The Wikipedia ceasefire page lists the ceasefire as 8 April–8 July, with fighting resuming on 8 July. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_ceasefire - Scheduled: the 3 Nov US midterms fall after the question closes (31 Oct). Trump's no-strike pledge is tied to them, so it covers the whole window. BOTTOM LINE: No formal ceasefire exists. The lull in strikes on Iranian soil rests on Trump's 8 Oct pledge not to strike before 3 Nov, and that pledge is wavering, with Iranian threats, a US strike on a ship on 12 Oct and Yemen escalation all pushing against it. The pledge covers the whole window to 31 Oct, but it is a verbal commitment with no counterpart agreement. NOT FOUND: Any confirmed US strike on Iranian territory in the last 7 days. The date of the most recent confirmed US land strike on Iran (September is implied but not pinned down). Primary US government or Iranian statements. The full GlobalSecurity and AP texts. Any scheduled talks round dated before 31 Oct.

Several of these sources contradict each other on the July–August timeline, so treat that part with caution. The Oct 8–10 picture is the most consistent across sources. - [2026-10-10] GlobalSecurity's Day 225 update says no US or coalition strike on Iranian territory ashore was reported in coverage of Oct 8–10. It says Trump stated on Oct 8 that the US would not attack Iran before the Nov 3 midterms, while the naval blockade stays in force. It also says the NYT reported the administration was weighing a three-day campaign against drone, missile, energy and leadership targets. https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iran-war-oprep.htm - [2026-10-08] Per the GlobalSecurity daily calendar snippet, The Atlantic reported the White House asked the Pentagon for strike options before Nov 3, and Axios reported CENTCOM was told to prepare for possible resumption of major combat, with no final decision. Hormuz tanker attacks were rising, with UKMTO counting nine in October. https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iran-war-update.htm - [2026-10-08] Britannica's news banner, citing AP: Trump says the US will not resume military strikes on Iran before the Nov 3 midterms. The pledge expires 3 days after this market's Oct 31 end date, so it covers the whole window. It is a presidential statement, not a binding commitment, and Trump has paired it with threats (Oct 9 rally: Iran must "give us everything"). https://www.britannica.com/event/2026-Iran-war - [2026-10-07] Diplomacy is active. Al Jazeera reports Vance is calling for a "meaningful" reduction in Iranian enrichment, which experts read as a possible softening. Trump says the war ends by "the nice way or the not-so-nice way." https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/7/us-sets-new-demands-for-iran-deal-what-are-they - [2026-05-26] Base rate, first phase: the war began Feb 28 and the ceasefire on Apr 8. The first publicly acknowledged US kinetic action on Iranian territory after the ceasefire came on May 25, about 47 days later. CENTCOM called it a "self-defense strike" near Bandar Abbas. A second strike followed on May 27–28. https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iran-war-update.htm - [2026-06-26] Base rate, MOU phase: the MOU was signed Jun 17. Iranian drones hit a ship on Jun 25, and CENTCOM struck Iranian missile, drone and radar sites on Jun 26. That is about 9 days after signing. A CBS report from the same period describes US strikes after a ceasefire extension and Iranian retaliation on Bahrain and Kuwait. https://brandclickx.com/ceasefire-iran/ - [2026-07-08] Wikipedia says the 2026 ceasefire "collapsed" on Jul 8 after attacks by both sides, with low-intensity US–Iran fighting afterward. It says new ceasefire terms were agreed Jun 12 and the Islamabad MOU was signed Jun 17. The dates in this article are internally inconsistent. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_ceasefire - [2026-08-18] A Polymarket event page's auto-generated news log says CENTCOM announced strikes on about 90 Iranian military targets on Aug 18, which Iran called a gross violation. The same log says the US resumed its blockade. I could not confirm this from a primary source, and the log is internally inconsistent about whether the strikes "impacted Iranian territory." https://polymarket.com/event/us-ceasefire-against-iran-continues-throughptptpt - [2026-08-30] The Polymarket event "US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?" has an Oct 31 strike with $343K volume. Its Aug 30 summary says the MOU expired in mid-August without a deal, direct talks were absent, and Washington was applying economic pressure "without new kinetic exchanges." No Oct 31 price is shown on the fetched page, and I did not look up this contract's own price. https://polymarket.com/event/us-ceasefire-against-iran-continues-throughptptpt - [2026-07-14 approx.] Comparable Polymarket contract: 14 continuous days without a US strike on Iran. Reports put it at about 53% shortly after a pause began that followed 13 straight nights of US strikes, and about 51–52% for an Aug 31 deadline. That implied roughly even odds of a quiet fortnight at the time. These articles are dated by their "76 days ago" and "78 days ago" ages, so the dates are approximate. https://decrypt.co/374611/us-iran-ceasefire-prediction-market-odds - [2026-06-25 to 2026-02-28] Longer reference class: the June 2025 Israel–Iran ceasefire lasted from Jun 24, 2025 to Feb 28, 2026, about 8 months, despite violations in its first hours. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twelve-Day_War_ceasefire - [2026-10-10] Armedconflicts.org (revised Oct 10) labels the status "ceasefire (fragile)". It describes the Jun 14–17 MOU and a 60-day clock, and does not reflect the later breakdown described elsewhere. https://armedconflicts.org/iran-us-war.html BOTTOM LINE: Since the Apr 8 ceasefire, qualifying US strikes on Iranian soil have come at intervals of roughly weeks to a couple of months (May 25, Jun 26, possibly Jul and Aug 18). Against that, no strike ashore was reported Oct 8–10, and Trump has publicly ruled out attacks before the Nov 3 midterms, which covers the Oct 31 end date. Strike-planning reports, rising Hormuz attacks and Trump's history of "self-defense" strikes during truces remain the main tail risks. NOT FOUND: A dated, primary-source (CENTCOM/DoD) log of US strikes on Iran from Aug 19 to Oct 13. Any expert or poll forecast for the Oct 31 window. The current price of this contract and its siblings. Full text of the GlobalSecurity Oct 10 report, the Britannica page and the Wikipedia timeline, which came back blocked or stale. A verified account of the July collapse and the Aug 18 strikes.

YES means: the US conducts no qualifying air or surface-to-surface strike that hits Iranian land (including internal waters) from now through 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on 31 Oct 2026. - [2026-10-08] Trump's Truth Social pledge was explicit and unconditional: "we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections" on Nov 3. It was coupled with "productive discussions" with Iran and the blockade staying in force. The pledge covers all of the 31 Oct window. Bloomberg notes he made it despite Hormuz tanker attacks, Houthi strikes on Saudi energy sites and the UK bomber move, so it was not forced by calm. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/9/trump-says-us-will-not-strike-iran-before-midterm-elections - [2026-10-09] Al Jazeera's analysis gives the political mechanism. A strike before the vote is risky because the war is "deeply unpopular" with Americans. A resumption after Nov 3 would carry less cost. That gives Trump a reason to hold off until after the question closes. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/9/is-trump-signalling-a-return-to-war-with-iran-after-the-midterms - [2026-10-12] Iran SITREP: the Oct 11–12 US strike on a blockade-running vessel was the first US strike "in a month". So the US has been quiet on kinetic action for about 30 days. The one recent action hit a ship, which is not a qualifying strike on Iranian territory. The US is also using the blockade, sanctions and Treasury actions as its pressure tools. https://www.iransitrep.com/ - [2026-10-08] The Treasury sanctioned 17 vessels of the "shadow fleet" the same day as the pledge. The White House line is that the US holds "all the cards" with the blockade and Iran's economy collapsing. This is a coercion-without-bombing strategy that depends on time, not strikes. https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-nuclear-donald-trump-vance-rubio-strait-of-hormuz/ - [2026-10-12] Diplomacy is still live. Iran's foreign ministry says it is still reviewing the US response to its 7-day proposal. Baghaei says there has been "considerable discussion of the seven points". Qatar confirmed on Oct 6 that it is ferrying messages, and Iran's interior minister called the Doha talks constructive. A live channel gives both sides a reason to avoid land strikes. https://cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-us-trump-saudi-arabia-houthi - [2026-10-13] Operational constraints on a US strike package: reports say US bombers are leaving RAF Fairford after an Iran-linked plot, which cuts the range of direct strikes. A Saudi–Houthi operation on Sanaa could pull naval assets away from the blockade. Washington's attention is shifting to Yemen, where Trump is weighing joining Saudi strikes. Strikes on the Houthis don't count here. https://www.iransitrep.com/ - [2026-10-08] Axios, on why the pledge may be weak: Trump's earlier statements haven't always matched his actions. Any resumption would be "major combat operations" on energy, infrastructure and nuclear targets, expected to be large-scale. A large campaign is a deliberate decision that he has just publicly ruled out until after the vote. Small tit-for-tat strikes are the more plausible path. https://www.axios.com/2026/10/08/trump-iran-strikes-midterm-elections - [2026-07-22] Earlier US land strikes were triggered by Iranian attacks on commercial shipping and US forces, and CENTCOM said they were meant to "hold Iran accountable" for those attacks. Iran is now attacking more ships (at least 15 targeted in October per Windward), yet the US response since Oct 8 has been maritime only. That suggests that US restraint on shipping attacks is a deliberate choice for now. https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PUBLIC-RELEASES/Article/4553225/centcom-completes-latest-strikes-against-iran/ - [2026-10-12] Iran says it will pursue military and diplomatic pressure on the US over Hormuz, and its security chief Rezaei has named the US-UAE oil shuttle as an explicit target. These attacks hit ships, not US forces. A direct hit on US personnel would be the likeliest trigger for a retaliatory strike, so avoiding that is a prerequisite for YES. https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/10/12/iran-sets-crosshairs-on-us-uae-oil-shuttle-out-of-strait-of-hormuz **Most likely path to YES:** The Oct 8 pledge holds through Oct 31, and the blockade, sanctions and Qatari-mediated messaging carry on. Iran keeps its attacks to merchant ships and does not kill US personnel. The Yemen escalation absorbs US attention. The 3 Nov midterms then fall after the window closes. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES case is a public, unconditional presidential pledge that covers the whole window. Behind it sit a roughly 30-day lull in US strikes, a live mediation channel and a stated political cost to striking before the vote. The weak points are that Trump's word has not always matched his actions, and that a retaliatory "self-defense" strike after an Iranian attack on US forces is not covered by the pledge in practice. NOT FOUND: A primary-source (CENTCOM or White House) log confirming no US strike on Iranian land since mid-September. The Axios full text (HTTP 403). Any scheduled talks round before Oct 31. Any Iranian statement responding to Trump's pledge.

YES means: the US conducts no qualifying air or surface-to-surface strike on Iranian land by 11:59 PM Iran time on Oct 31. NO means at least one such strike lands. This report argues only the NO side. - [2026-10-07] The Atlantic reported that the White House asked the Pentagon for Iran strike options usable before Nov 3. Officials tied this to lowering gas prices and showing progress. The motive was electoral, so the plan was not drawn up merely as a contingency for after the vote. Axios reported CENTCOM was told to finish preparations. The president was weighing timing against Israel's Oct 27 election, which falls inside the window. Some advisers favour waiting until after the vote. https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/6136146-white-house-trump-possible-iran-strikes-midterms/ ; https://www.iranintl.com/en/202610072501 - [2026-10-08] Trump's Truth Social pledge is narrower than "no strikes". It says "we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to" Nov 3, and it comes with the line that the blockade "will remain in full force". The reason he gave was "productive discussions", and those talks are stalled. A day earlier he had said he expected to win "right after the election, maybe before". He has reversed on short notice before. https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/6136781-trump-vows-no-iran-attack/ - [2026-10-12] The pledge's wording leaves loopholes. Trump called the Houthi–Saudi front a possible reason to "take a look", and Newsweek describes sustained Houthi strikes as honouring "the letter" of his vow. The Riyadh airport strike killed 13, including an American. Washington would also need Saudi airspace for major combat against Iran. https://www.newsweek.com/trump-houthis-saudi-arabia-iran-war-12556349 - [2026-10-11] Al Jazeera, in an article that did not report any US strike on Iranian soil since Trump's pledge, says Hormuz attacks "intensify" and talks are deadlocked. It says no breakthrough is expected before the Nov 3 vote. Iran's army chief of staff said it will "strike them again" if anything happens. Since mid-July the US has disabled four vessels, destroyed 10 tankers and turned back 135 ships. On Oct 12 the US struck a ship again. This is an active kinetic exchange, which makes a "self-defense" strike on a launch site or radar on the coast easier to justify than a deliberate campaign. https://aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/11/hormuz-attacks-intensify-as-efforts-to-end-war-on-iran-stall - [2026-10-12] Iran's Foreign Ministry accused the US of "maritime piracy". The IRGC said any company cooperating with the US would see all its vessels targeted. On Oct 9 the IRGC set the LPG tanker ablaze and threatened to pursue ships beyond Hormuz. The IRGC fires on ships weekly. A single incident involving US forces could trigger retaliatory strikes. https://iranwire.com/en/news/158801-irgc-targets-third-tanker-in-strait-of-hormuz-warns-us-allies/ ; https://www.euronews.com/2026/10/09/irans-irgc-strikes-tanker-and-threatens-to-target-vessels-beyond-hormuz - [2026-09-01 to 2026-09-05] The US struck IRGC targets on Iranian land after attempted attacks on ships and US troops. The Sept 1 strikes hit Bandar Abbas, Ahvaz, Aghajari and Sirik. On Sept 5 it hit three Iranian tankers. Iran's chief negotiator said the era of "proportionate responses" was over. This is the closest precedent: the pattern of Iranian tanker attacks followed by US retaliation on land. The last confirmed land strike I found is Sept 1, about six weeks ago, so a strike within 18 days would not break the recent rhythm. https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-907267 ; https://abcnews.com/International/live-updates/iran-live-updates-centcom-targeted-iranian-forces-posed/?id=136080582 - [2026-07-16] CENTCOM's own release describes the "sixth consecutive night" of major strike waves. It shows the US can move from a pause to nightly waves quickly. https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PUBLIC-RELEASES/Article/4548433/us-successfully-completes-new-strikes-in-iran/ - [2026-10-10] Resolution technicalities favour NO. Any single air-launched or surface-to-surface munition that lands on Iranian soil counts, and there is no minimum size, duration or casualty threshold. Strikes on Iranian territory only need credible reporting or a CENTCOM statement. The exclusions cover ships, interceptions, naval gunfire and the sea, so US bombing of vessels at sea does not count. However, a "self-defense" strike on a coastal radar, a launch site or a port facility would count. GlobalSecurity, drawing on the NYT, says a three-day campaign against Iranian drone, missile and energy targets was being considered. https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iran-war-oprep.htm - [2026-10-08] The pledge's incentives cut both ways. Trump has said midterm concerns "don't factor" into his decisions. Pew finds 65% of Americans disapprove of his handling of the war. Backers of limited strikes admit they would not bring Iran to the table or lower prices before Election Day, which weakens the case for striking before the vote. This is the main argument for YES, and the NO case must discount it. Even so, Brent is above $105 and prices have kept rising since late August, which is the pressure pushing toward action. https://www.newsweek.com/trump-houthis-saudi-arabia-iran-war-12556349 ; https://www.iranintl.com/en/202610072501 BOTTOM LINE: The case for NO is that the war is hot at sea and in the planning cells, while the only barrier on land is a revocable verbal pledge that Trump has hedged ("maybe before"). That pledge is under pressure from Houthi/Yemen escalation, rising Hormuz incidents and a pre-election push to lower oil prices. The exclusion of maritime action and the low threshold of any one munition on land mean one retaliatory or "self-defense" strike in 18 days would resolve NO. NOT FOUND: Any confirmed US strike on Iranian soil after Sept 5 or since the Oct 8 pledge. Primary CENTCOM or Iranian statements on Oct 12–13. The CBS Oct 13 text for Trump's quote (Newsweek attributes it to Saturday). A reliable account of the claimed Aug 18 strikes. Any scheduled talks round before Oct 31.